Patriots

New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (7-2) at San Francisco 49ers (1-8)

The Patriots lost last week at home to the Seattle Seahawks. It was just their 2nd loss of the season, but there’s reason for concern. The Patriots’ defense got gashed all game in their first game since the controversial Jamie Collins trade. Also controversially, the Patriots are not even bringing defensive end Jabaal Sheard on this trip with them, even though he was a starter 3 weeks ago before their bye and arguably their best defensive lineman last season. Sheard was relegated to backup snaps last week and now won’t play at all, even though he’s healthy. Between Collins, Sheard, and Chandler Jones, who was controversially traded this off-season, the Patriots are missing a big chunk of last year’s strong front 7, so how they played defensively last week is concerning. The Patriots will also be without tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receiver Chris Hogan with injuries in this one. Gronk’s injury is obviously the more important one and he’ll miss at least this week with a chest injury.

All that being said, the Patriots get about as soft of a landing spot after last week’s loss as possible with this trip to San Francisco. The 49ers enter the game 31st in both first down rate differential and point differential, only ahead of the Browns in both categories. They also lead the league in double digit losses with 7 and their average margin of defeat is 15.5, so the Patriots don’t even really have to play that well to cover this line. The Patriots’ defense has issues, but their offense has been incredible this season, even in last week’s loss. On the season, they rank 4th in first down rate and 2nd in first down rate percentage, despite being without Tom Brady for the first 4 games of the season with suspension. Since returning, Brady has played better than any quarterback in the league and the Patriots figure to have a big offensive performance once again this week, even without Gronkowski.

The Patriots are also in a much better spot than the 49ers, as they have an easy game on deck, a trip to New York to face the Jets, while the 49ers go to Miami, which isn’t easy. The early line has the Patriots as 9 point favorites in New York, while the 49ers are 8 point underdogs in Miami. Underdogs of 6 or more are 48-76 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6 or more again, while favorites of 6 or more are 89-50 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6 or more again. Combining the two, favorites of 6 or more are 7-31 ATS before being favorites of 6 or more again, when their opponent will next be underdogs of 6 or more again. The Patriots are also 45-24 ATS off of a loss in the Bill Belichick era (since 2010). The Patriots are battling some adversity right now, but this game still has blowout written all over it.

New England Patriots 31 San Francisco 49ers 13

Pick against the spread: New England -12.5

Confidence: Medium

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Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (5-2-1) at New England Patriots (7-1)

Despite a strong 5-2-1 record, the Seahawks have been underwhelming through their first 8 games of the season. Their tie would have been a loss if not for a number of fluky special teams mistakes by the Cardinals, while their only 2 wins by more than 6 points have come against the Jets and 49ers, two of the worst teams in the league. Despite having the 3rd easiest schedule in the league thus far, in terms of opponents’ record, the Seahawks rank just 11th in first down rate differential.

There are reasons to be optimistic for the Seahawks though. For one, they get safety Kam Chancellor back from injury, who they really missed during his 4-game absence. Defensive end Michael Bennett remains out, a huge absence, but at least Chancellor returns to a defense that has still played well despite players missing time. Their offense has been where they’ve had problems, thanks largely to a weak offensive line and a banged up Russell Wilson. However, they looked as good offensively last week as they did all season, as Wilson gets closer to 100%.

The Seahawks have always done very well in the second half of the regular season in the Pete Carroll era (since 2011), going 30-9-1 ATS in games 9-16 since Carroll arrived. This has been very noticeable on the stat sheet for Russell Wilson, as he’s completed 65.9% of his passes for an average of 8.69 YPA, 63 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in the second half of the regular season in his career. Considering how well this organization is run from top to bottom, it doesn’t surprise me they get better as the season goes on. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they went on another second half run.

Despite that, they are 8 point underdogs here in New England. For context, the Seahawks have lost just 2 games in Russell Wilson’s career by more than 8 points, including playoffs, a stretch of 82 games total. Those 2 losses were by 9 points and 10 points, so they weren’t exactly blown out in those games either. The public seems to expect a New England beatdown of the Seahawks, as most of the money is on the favorite this week, but the public is often wrong and always loses money in the long run. This figures to be a close game.

The Patriots are probably the best team in the league right now, given that they are basically completely healthy, but they have also played a very easy schedule, the 2nd easiest in the league in terms of win/loss record. They are in a good spot coming off of a bye, with an easy trip to San Francisco on deck after this one. Touchdown favorites are 56-30 ATS since 2012 before being touchdown favorites again, which the Patriots definitely will be next week against the lowly 49ers. At the same time, this is also a tough spot for them, as it’s a night game against a west coast team. Because of how human sleep cycles work, teams that are used to the western time zone have a major advantage at night against teams used to the eastern time zone, covering about 2/3rds of the time. I thought about making this my Pick of the Week and there’s enough here for me to be confident in the Seahawks as underdogs of 7 or more.

New England Patriots 24 Seattle Seahawks 20

Pick against the spread: Seattle +8

Confidence: High

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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: 2016 Week 8 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (6-1) at Buffalo Bills (4-3)

In a season with a severe lack of top level teams, the New England Patriots might be on their own level at the top of the league as long as they are healthy. Despite not having Tom Brady or a healthy Rob Gronkowski for the first 4 weeks of the season, the Patriots are 7th in first down percentage and have been unstoppable offensively in the past 3 weeks with Brady and Gronk back, winning all 3 games by at least 11 points. Their defense hasn’t been bad either, entering this game 10th in first down percentage allowed. They rank 3rd in first down percentage differential and first in point differential and they’re healthier than they’ve been all season right now.

The Bills are also in a tough spot with another tough game on deck, as they head to Seattle next week. The Patriots, meanwhile, go on bye. The early line has the Bills as 7 point underdogs in Seattle and teams are 90-49 ATS since 2012 as 6 point underdogs before being 6 point underdogs again. However, this line is too high at 7 for me to be at all confident in the Patriots. The Bills are still a solid squad, entering this game 15th in first down percentage differential. They’ll be without LeSean McCoy in this one, but they get top defensive lineman Marcell Dareus back, after he missed the first 4 games with suspension and the last 3 games with injury. I’m taking New England, but it’s a no confidence pick.

New England Patriots 24 Buffalo Bills 16

Pick against the spread: New England -7

Confidence: None

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New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (5-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)

The Patriots really lucked out by getting the Steelers at a time in which they’re incredibly banged up. The biggest injury is the one that has Ben Roethlisberger out for at least this week and likely several weeks. Instead, backup Landry Jones will start in his absence. The dropoff from Roethlisberger to Jones is as big as any starter to backup dropoff in the NFL. It’s not just Roethlisberger though, as the Steelers are also missing defensive end Cameron Heyward, their top defensive player, and starting right tackle Marcus Gilbert. This line moved from even on the early line last week to 7.5 in favor of the visiting New England Patriots this week, primarily as a result of the Roethlisberger injury, but also as a result of how poorly their defense played in Miami last week without Heyward. That might be a little bit too much of a line movement, so I’m taking the Steelers, but I’m not confident at all.

New England Patriots 27 Pitsburgh Steelers 20

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +7.5

Confidence: None

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Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) at New England Patriots (4-1)

The Patriots got a big 20 point win in Cleveland last week, while the Bengals lost by 14 points in Dallas. As a result, this line has moved from 7 on the early line last week to 9 this week. I think this line is too high now. The Patriots’ performance was impressive, but the Bengals are a much tougher opponent than the Browns. The Patriots are a top-5 team with Tom Brady back, but the Bengals are better than this line and their record suggest. They’re 2-3, but all 3 of their losses came against tough opponents, Denver, Pittsburgh, and Dallas. They’re not as good as they were last year, missing injured tight end Tyler Eifert, and free agent departures Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Reggie Nelson, and Leon Hall. However, they’re still a legitimate playoff contender.

They’re also in a great spot here, even against a tough New England team. For one, they’re in their second straight road game. Teams are 133-98 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 108-66 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 233-234 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.49 points per game, as opposed to 333-455 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.80 points per game.

The Bengals also have a very easy game on deck against the Browns. The early line has them as 10.5 point favorites, a big swing from this game. Underdogs of 6 or more are 40-30 ATS since 2008 before being favorites of 6 or more. It’s much easier to keep it close against a superior opponent if you don’t have a tough game upcoming to provide as a distraction. The Patriots, meanwhile, go to Pittsburgh next week for arguably their toughest regular season game. As long as you can get it higher than a touchdown, it’s worth putting money on the Bengals. This figures to be a close game.

New England Patriots 24 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +9

Confidence: Medium

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New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (3-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-4)

Tom Brady is back from his 4-game suspension and the Patriots are healthier than they have been all season around him, especially with Rob Gronkowski looking like he’s finally healthy enough to be a factor in the passing game, after largely blocking for a conservative offense the past two weeks with a bad hamstring and a rookie quarterback under center. The Patriots do not figure to be nearly as conservative with Brady back and he has plenty of weapons around him to torch a Cleveland defense that’s one of the worst in the entire league.

However, this just feels like a trap game from a bettor’s standpoint. It’s possible it takes Brady a week or so to get back into a rhythm and it’s possible that his teammates relax a little with him back and don’t play as well as they’ve been playing with him out. Cleveland is a weak opponent, but the Patriots are whopping 11 point favorites here on the road and everyone and their brother is betting on them looking to make some easy money in Tom’s return. This might be a huge win for the sportsbooks. I can’t bet anything on the Browns, especially since Bill Belichick is 44-24 ATS off of a loss since he took over as head coach of the Patriots, but I’d pick them if I had to.

New England Patriots 27 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +11

Confidence: None

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Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (1-2) at New England Patriots (3-0)

The Bills received bad news this week when Sammy Watkins had to be shut down for an extended period of time with pain in the foot he had surgically repaired this off-season. Now on injured reserve, Watkins is not eligible to return until week 12. It comes just as the Bills were getting healthier, with left tackle Cordy Glenn (2 game absence) and cornerback Ronald Darby (1 game absence) likely returning this week. Watkins is the best player on this offense, so he’s obviously a huge loss and he joins the best player on their defense, nose tackle Marcell Dareus, on the sidelines. Dareus is not eligible to return from suspension until next week. In addition, the Bills are also missing first round pick Shaq Lawson for an extended period of time and second round pick Reggie Ragland for the season, two players that were both supposed to start on this defense. They’re getting a couple guys back, but they’re far from what they could be at full strength.

The Patriots, meanwhile, are actually getting healthier. Everyone practiced on Friday and they could have 7 healthy inactives next week. Of course, this doesn’t include suspended players like Tom Brady and Rob Ninkovich or players on the Physically Unable to Perform list like Dion Lewis and Sebastian Vollmer. Brady is obviously the big missing piece, but Jimmy Garoppolo has performed well in his absence and he’s expected to start this week after missing last week with a shoulder injury. In about 6 quarters this season, he’s beaten a good Arizona team on the road and put up a big lead on Miami, before getting injured. He also has a healthy Rob Gronkowski at his disposal for the first time, while linebacker Dont’a Hightower is expected to return on the defensive side of the ball. The Patriots defense shut the Texans out last week even without him. This is a deep and talented team on both sides of the ball and they’re healthier now than they’ve been all season.

I think they’ll also be very focused this week, with Tom Brady’s return and an easy game in Cleveland on deck. This team knows if they can get to 4-0 before Brady even plays they’ll be in tremendous shape and a weak Cleveland team doesn’t present a distraction. They’re expected to be 10.5 point road favorites in Cleveland next week and teams are 75-55 ATS since 2008 before being road favorites of 7 or more. Buffalo, meanwhile, is in a bad spot, coming off of an upset win at home against the Cardinals. Teams are 51-75 ATS since 2008 off of a win as home underdogs. Teams tend to get overconfident off of a win against a superior team that just happened to have a bad game on the road.

The Bills’ win last week was impressive, but very fluky, as both teams moved the chains at about the same rate. The Bills just won the turnover battle by 4, but that’s very tough to maintain. Teams that win the turnover battle by 4, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week. The Patriots are also notoriously good in the turnover battle. I locked this line in earlier this week at -5, but it has since jumped to 7.5 with Garoppolo likely in and Watkins definitely out. I’d put money on it all the way up to 9.5 though. Belichick’s Patriots are dangerous off extra rest and will be very focused for their final game without Brady, with an easy trip to Cleveland on deck.

New England Patriots 24 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: New England -5

Confidence: High

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Houston Texans at New England Patriots: 2016 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (2-0) at New England Patriots (2-0)

Last week, the early line was 3.5 in favor of the hometown New England Patriots. When I saw that, my first thought was New England was likely to cover. Home non-divisional favorites on Thursday nights are 34-16 ATS since 1989. Thursday night games are tough enough for players, but they’re especially tough when you have to go on the road and face a comparable or better opponent, unless that opponent is a divisional opponent that you play twice a year. This game fit all 3 criteria and the Patriots had proven themselves to still be a tough opponent, even without Tom Brady, with a win in Arizona week 1.

Of course, the Patriots lost backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo last week, which changed matters a lot. Now the Patriots are in a tough situation, scrambling to get 3rd string quarterback Jacoby Brissett, a 3rd round rookie out of NC State, ready to start on a short week. That also changed the line as now the Patriots are underdogs of 3 points at home. That seems like far too drastic of a swing. In fact, the New England/Arizona line only shifted about 6 points immediately after Brady’s suspension was upheld.

The Patriots went from leading 24-3 when Garoppolo went down to barely hanging on by the final score of 31-24 aftewards, but that’s not really an indictment on Brissett. The Patriots’ defense played a lot better in the first half than the second half and Brissett didn’t even have that many pass attempts, as the Patriots just tried to run out the clock with what was once a big lead (as high as 31-3 at one point). Brissett only threw 9 passes in a little over a half, completing 6 of them for 92 yards. Two of the 3 incompletions were drops by Julian Edelman that were not in the best spot. All in all, for coming into the game cold off the bench, Brissett wasn’t bad and could conceivably lead a run heavy offense to victory, though he’s a major question mark.

The Texans have a strong defense so the Patriots are unlikely to win a shootout, but they have a good defense as well and figure to be able to keep the Texans’ offense in check on a short week. The Texans remain without left tackle Duane Brown with injury, while the Patriots are reportedly likely to get back both linebacker Dont’a Hightower and tight end Rob Gronkowski from injury. One in 6 games are decided by a field goal or less, so I like the Patriots’ chances of at least keeping this one close at home. They’re 41-22 ATS as underdogs under Bill Belichick, including 8-6 ATS without Brady, and 12-3 ATS as home underdogs under Bill Belichick, including 2-1 ATS without Brady. In some places, this line has dropped to 1.5-2.5, in which case this is a lower confidence play, but it’s a money play at 3 for sure.

New England Patriots 16 Houston Texans 13 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: New England +3

Confidence: Medium

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Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (0-1) at New England Patriots (1-0)

The Dolphins are in a much better spot than the Patriots here, as they have arguably the easiest game of their season on deck, a home game against the Browns in which they’re favored by a touchdown in the early line, while the Patriots have to play again in 4 days against the Texans on Thursday Night Football. Underdogs of 6 or more are 40-29 ATS before being favorites of 6 or more since 2008, while teams are 48-71 ATS as favorites before Thursday Night Football. The Dolphins could easily be a lot more focused for this one than their opponent.

On top of that, the Dolphins are in their 2nd of two road games, coming off a loss in Seattle. Teams are 131-95 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 106-64 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 226-229 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 322-438 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.74 points per game.

That being said, this line is way too low for me at 6.5 to put any money on the Dolphins. The Patriots showed last week that even without Tom Brady, Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Dion Lewis, and Rob Gronkowski, they’re still a very capable football team. They could have easily lost if not for a botched 47-yard potential game winning field goal by the Cardinals, but even losing by 1 would have been impressive on the road, against the Cardinals. This is the most talented Patriots’ defense since their undefeated 2007 team, keeping the Cardinals’ high flying offense in check. If they can get guys back on offense, they’re probably the team to beat in the NFL. This week, they get Nate Solder and possibly Rob Gronkowski back.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, are overrated coming off of a 2 point loss in Seattle. The only reason that game was close is the Dolphins won the turnover margin by 2, but turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis and the Patriots historically do very well in turnover margin. The Dolphins only moved the chains at a 54.55% rate last week, as opposed to 70.97% for the Seahawks. One of the worst teams in the league last season (31st in rate of moving the chains differential), the Dolphins are better coached this year, but lost a trio of talented free agents in Lamar Miller, Olivier Vernon, and Derrick Shelby and have one of the least talented rosters in the league. Missing center Mike Pouncey for the 2nd straight week, they figure to have a hard time scoring against New England, even though the Patriots are missing linebacker Dont’a Hightower. I’m taking the Dolphins to keep this closer than a touchdown because they’re in a better spot, but I’d need at least 7.5 to consider putting any money on this.

New England Patriots 17 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against the spread: Miami +6.5

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)

When this line opened at 6, I was thinking I was likely going to take New England. It probably wouldn’t have been for any money, but they had a good team around the quarterback and seemed like they could have made it close. However, that changed when Rob Gronkowski was ruled out with a hamstring injury. The line moved to 7, but that doesn’t seem like nearly enough compensation, especially considering left tackle Nate Solder and right guard Jonathan Cooper are also both out.

In addition to Tom Brady, the Patriots are already missing 3 starting offensive lineman (including right tackle Sebastian Vollmer, who could be done for the year), top pass catcher Rob Gronkowski, and pass catching running back Dion Lewis. Their defense is still strong and could help them keep this one close, but they don’t look like they’d have much of a shot in a shoot out. Arizona is once again a legitimate contender with a top level offense and could easily win by over a touchdown. It’s not enough for me to put any sort of confidence on the Cardinals, but they’re my pick here.

Arizona Cardinals 27 New England Patriots 17

Pick against the spread: Arizona -7

Confidence: None

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