Rams

Tennessee Titans at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Rams, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (3-4) at St. Louis Rams (3-5)

On paper, these two teams are pretty equal. The Titans are 21st in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Rams are 22nd. The Titans move the chains at a 70% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, while the Rams are moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents. However, these two teams are trending in opposite directions at the quarterback position. While the Rams are going into their 2nd full game without quarterback Sam Bradford, the Titans are going into their 2nd full game with quarterback Jake Locker back from injury.

Kellen Clemens, Bradford’s backup, is now the starter in St. Louis and he played as you would have expected him to play against an elite defense last week against the Seahawks, going 15 of 31 for 158 yards and 2 interceptions, while failing to lead the Rams to an offensive touchdown. The Rams kept it close against the Seahawks thanks to an inspired effort by the Rams’ defense in a 14-9 loss, but I question if they can keep that up. That performance was pretty uncharacteristic when you look at their whole season. If they can’t, the Rams are going to be in a lot of trouble.

The Titans, meanwhile, were 3-1 when Jake Locker went down with injury. They’ve lost their last 3 games, the first two with limited backup Ryan Fitzpatrick and the third with a clearly unhealthy Jake Locker, who was forced back too soon. Now after a bye for Locker to rest, he should be much better than he was last time, 2 weeks removed from his last performance, and he should be better than Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The schedule also gets easier for the Titans. It also didn’t help that those 3 games were against the Chiefs, Seahawks, and 49ers. Those might not be the best three teams in the NFL, but certainly no reasonable person would call you crazy if you named those 3 as the best three teams in the NFL. The Titans were actually competitive in 2 of those 3 games, a testament to their strong defense. If Locker can continue playing solid football like he was pre-injury, the Titans should be able to play like they did when they started the season 3-1, now that the tough part of their season is over.

Given that, I think it’s very reasonable that the Titans are favored by 3 here. The line might actually be too low if anything. The Seahawks/Rams line shifted 6 points when Bradford went down and rightfully so. This line suggests that the Rams would be favored by 3 here if Bradford were healthy, which suggests that the Rams with Sam Bradford and the Titans with Jake Locker are essentially equivalent teams, which I don’t think is true.

The fact that the Titans deserve to be road favorites is especially relevant considering how well road favorites play coming out of byes, going 45-18 ATS since 2002. The Titans are a quality football team and should be completely focused and run over a significantly inferior football team here. The Rams, meanwhile, could be completely flat 6 days removed from a last second loss to hated divisional rival Seattle.

They’re also in a bad spot as they go to Indianapolis next week, when they’re expected to be 12 point underdogs. Teams are 33-68 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. The Rams probably will not be focused enough to pull the upset, which is essentially what they’d have to do to cover this 3 point spread, as only about 8% of games are decided by less than 3 points. The Titans, meanwhile, have no distractions with a home game against the Jaguars on deck. I think this could easily be a blowout and the Titans are a high confidence pick.

Tennessee Titans 24 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against spread: Tennessee -3

Confidence: High

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St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Rams, Uncategorized

Last week: 28 (+0)

Record: 3-4

Kellen Clemens was essentially as you’d expect him against one of the league’s premier defenses, as he completed 15 of 31 for 158 yards and 2 interceptions in leading the Rams to 9 total points. The Rams’ defense kept them competitive against an elite team in a 14-9 loss, which might give Rams fans some hope for the rest of the season, but I question if that is something that will continue going forward considering how their defense has played this season. If it doesn’t continue, they’re going to have a very hard time winning more than 2 or 3 games the rest of the way considering how limited Clemens and this offense is. Even worse, talented right guard Harvey Dahl is out indefinitely with an MCL injury.

Week 8 Studs

RE Robert Quinn

LT Jake Long

Week 8 Duds

DT Kendall Langford

C Scott Wells

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Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Rams, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (6-1) at St. Louis Rams (3-4)

This is one I could go either way on. This line has shifted in a big way over the past week, going from -5 to -11.5, but then again, that might be warranted considering the Rams lost Sam Bradford for the season with a torn ACL and will now turn to Kellen Clemens for the rest of the season. The Seahawks generally struggle on the road, going 26-38 ATS on the road since 2006. However, they have covered 7 of their last 9 opportunities on the road over the past calendar year or so. They’ve also been decent as road favorites, even dating back to 2006, going 9-11 ATS. They’ve also been decent in their second straight road game, going 7-8 ATS since 2006.

The Rams are also in a bad spot as home dogs before being home dogs, as teams are 65-90 ATS in that situation since 2002. I’m taking the Seahawks, but I’m not very confident. We could see a backdoor cover or something along those lines, especially since road favorites of 7.5 or more are 3-16 ATS since 2011. The Seahawks have a very good chance at a blowout though.

Seattle Seahawks 24 St. Louis Rams 9

Pick against spread: St. Louis -11.5

Confidence: None

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St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Rams, Uncategorized

Last week: 25 (-3)

Record: 3-4

The Rams have 3 wins, but one was by a field goal at home over Arizona, one was over Jacksonville, and the other was a fluky game in Houston in which they won by 25 despite losing the yardage battle by over 200 and the first down battle by over 10. Now they don’t really have a quarterback as Sam Bradford is out for the season with a torn ACL, forcing fringe talent Kellen Clemens under center for the rest of the season. They’re going to have a hard time winning more than 5 games which is why they are down here despite having 3 wins.

Week 7 Studs

QB Sam Bradford

C Scott Wells

RE Robert Quinn

Week 7 Duds

RG Harvey Dahl

CB Trumaine Johnson

CB Janoris Jenkins

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St. Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Panthers, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (3-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-3)

The Panthers seem to make a habit out of blowing out bad teams and suffering gut wrenching losses to solid or better teams. There’s plenty of talent on this football team. They’re moving the chains at a 79% rate, while their opponents are doing so at a 72% rate, the 6th best differential in football. If they can ever figure out how to win close games, they’re going to be a dangerous team (2-14 in games decided by a touchdown or less since 2011). Record in games decided by a touchdown or less usually evens out over the long run, but at this point I’m skeptical if that will be the case in Carolina as long as Ron Rivera is the Head Coach.

Fortunately, that shouldn’t matter here as the Panthers have a very easy opponent in the Rams. Yes, the Rams are 3-3, but their first win came by a field goal and their 2nd win came against Jacksonville. On paper, their 3rd win looks more impressive, a 38-13 victory in Houston. However, that came was very fluky. The Rams won by 25 points despite losing the yardage battle by 204 and the first down battle by 12. This was as a result of winning the turnover battle by 4, including two return touchdowns.

That’s not a sustainable way to win football games. Since 1989, only 35 teams have won games despite losing the first down battle by 10 and the yardage battle by 200. Also, since 1989, teams are 13-23 ATS after a game in which they lost the first down battle by 10+ and still won the game by 10+. Teams tend to be overconfident and overvalued off of fluky wins like that.

On the season, the Rams are still moving the ball at a 72% rate offensively, as opposed to 75% for their opponents. They are 26th in DVOA, as opposed to 8th for Carolina. They’re the type of team Carolina has had no problem blowing out in the past. There’s a reason the odds makers made this spread 6. This is the 3rd time Cam Newton has been favored by 6 or more in his career. He covered each of the first two times, winning the two games by an average of 21.5 points per game.

The situational trends also favor the Panthers. Whereas the Rams have a huge divisional matchup with the Seahawks next week, which could serve as a distraction, the Panthers go to winless Tampa Bay next week, so they should be completely focused. Non-divisional home favorites are 47-22 since 2008 before being divisional road favorites. Meanwhile, non-divisional road dogs are 49-74 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home dogs. I’m very confident we’re getting a blow out here.

Carolina Panthers 27 St. Louis Rams 9

Pick against spread: Carolina -6

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Rams, Uncategorized

Last week: 28 (+3)

Record: 3-3

The Rams won last week to get to .500, but it was an incredibly fluky win. They won the turnover battle by 4, including two return touchdowns and somehow won the game by 25 despite losing the first down battle by 12 and the yardage battle by 204. Teams who lose the first down battle by 10 and the yardage battle by 200 have won 35 times since 1989, against 380 losses. Ironically, the Texans have surrendered two such wins this season, as the Seahawks won in this fashion earlier this year. Still, the Rams are not going to be able to win that way going forward. Their other two wins came by a field goal and against the Jaguars respectively, while their 3 losses have all been blowouts going into garbage time. They’re still moving the chains at just a 72% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents. They could be overrated going forward.

Week 6 Studs

LT Jake Long

CB Trumaine Johnson

Week 6 Duds

ROLB JoLonn Dunbar

DT Kendall Langford

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St. Louis Rams at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Rams, Texans, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (2-3) at Houston Texans (2-3)

It’s weird to be saying this because I held that the Texans were overrated coming into the season, but I actually think the Texans are underrated right now. They’ve faced a very tough schedule thus far, playing Baltimore, Tennessee, San Diego, and San Francisco, and Seattle. San Diego is probably the worst of the bunch and even they’re decent. They’ve also been killed off of returns. The Texans are -46 in points differential right now, but they are -28 in points off of returns as they’ve allowed 4 defensive touchdowns.

That won’t continue. Even if the Texans continue to turn the ball over at a rate of 2.2 per game, they are unlikely to allow 36% of them to be returned for a touchdown. And they might not even continue to turn the ball over at this rate. They are unlikely to continue recovering just 30.0% of fumbles that hit the ground and Matt Schaub, while he’s definitely having a down year, probably won’t continue throwing an interception at a rate nearly double his career rate. For his career, he throws an interception on 2.6% of attempts. This season, he’s at 4.2%, partly because of their tough schedule. Their -8 turnover margin is one of the worst in the NFL and a big part of the reason they’ve struggled. The Texans are actually moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents, a 5% differential that is 6th best in the NFL, despite their tough schedule.

This is a perfect chance for them to get back on track here, with the Rams coming to town. The Rams have already failed to cover similar lines against similar caliber opponents, in Atlanta and Dallas. They beat the Cardinals at home by 3 week 1, but they then trailed Atlanta 21-0 early before injuries and garbage time, they lost 31-7 to the Cowboys, and they lost 35-11 to the 49ers.

They beat Jacksonville by 14 last week, but that’s not even that impressive. They barely even covered the spread, beating the 12 point spread by 2, their first cover of the season. The Texans also haven’t covered this season, but that’s because I think they’ve been overrated. That’s no longer the case. I like their chances of re-establishing themselves here and blowing out the Rams. I wish the line was -7 or lower, but I still think the Texans should be the right side.

Houston Texans 24 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against spread: Houston -8

Confidence: Low

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St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Rams, Uncategorized

Last week: 28 (+0)

Record: 2-3

Beating the Jaguars isn’t impressive. It ended an awful stretch for the Rams, in which they trailed Atlanta 21-0 early before injuries and garbage time, they lost 31-7 to the Cowboys, and they lost 35-11 to the 49ers. That being said, I don’t think any higher of them than I did before last week and now they go on a very tough stretch, starting with a trip to Houston this week. After that, they play Carolina, Seattle, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Chicago, and San Francisco.

Week 5 Studs

RT Joe Barksdale

RE Robert Quinn

DT Michael Brockers

Week 5 Duds

LOLB Alec Ogletree

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St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Rams, Uncategorized

Last week: 20 (-8)

Record: 1-3

The Rams keep adding talent, but they never seem to get any better. Their retooled offensive line isn’t playing up to expectations. Rodger Saffold is out, while veteran Scott Wells has been awful at center. Chris Williams continues to prove he’s not a starting caliber player, while even Jake Long has not been the franchise left tackle they thought they were getting. Rookie Tavon Austin, who was supposed to invigorate Bradford’s receiving corps, has looked like, well a rookie, while Jared Cook has been pretty hit or miss. Defensively, Chris Long and James Laurinaitis, who have been signed to long extensions recently, aren’t living up to their salaries. The same is true of Cortland Finnegan, who was signed to a 50 million dollar deal last off-season. He’s suddenly morphed into the worst cornerback in the NFL, allowing 16 of 19 for 248 yards and 3 touchdowns before getting “hurt” against the 49ers. With another two 1st round picks this year, the Rams have a lot of decisions to make on which highly paid veterans to dump and which youngsters to give up on.

Week 4 Studs

None

Week 4 Duds

QB Sam Bradford

RB Daryl Richardson

C Scott Wells

FS Rodney McLeod

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Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Rams, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) at St. Louis Rams (1-3)

The Jaguars are +12 here in St. Louis. No one is THAT bad right? Well, so far, the Jaguars have been THAT bad. They have been beyond horrendous offensively, converting just 58% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent set of first downs. That means on 42% of their 1st and 10s, they didn’t move the chains. Defensively, they aren’t good either, but they aren’t horrendous, surrendering a subsequent set of first downs 78% of the time.

However, I don’t expect the Jaguars to be THAT bad all season. They’re having a horrendous stretch right now, but I don’t think they’ll be all-time bad for the entirety of the season. Some of it will be randomness and the fact that no one is this bad forever. Some of it will be the return of Justin Blackmon, who returns this week from a 4 game suspension and could have a Josh Gordon-esque impact on this offense. They won’t be a good offense by any stretch of the imagination, but that 58% number won’t be THAT terrible all season.

Given that, I don’t think they really deserve to be 12 point underdogs here. The Rams aren’t very good at all either. They are moving the chains on 69% of opportunities, as opposed to 76% for their opponents. In terms of differential, they are 29th in the NFL. Their retooled offensive line isn’t playing up to expectations. Rodger Saffold is out, while veteran Scott Wells has been awful at center. Chris Williams continues to prove he’s not a starting caliber player, while even Jake Long has not been the franchise left tackle they thought they were getting.

Rookie Tavon Austin, who was supposed to invigorate Bradford’s receiving corps, has looked like, well a rookie, while Jared Cook has been pretty hit or miss. Defensively, Chris Long and James Laurinaitis, who have been signed to long extensions recently, aren’t living up to their salaries. The same is true of Cortland Finnegan, who was signed to a 50 million dollar deal last off-season. He’s suddenly morphed into the worst cornerback in the NFL, allowing 16 of 19 for 248 yards and 3 touchdowns before getting “hurt” against the 49ers.

They don’t deserve to be 12 point favorites over anyone. One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week1 (they didn’t cover), but there was at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

The Rams could easily go 6-10 or worse after a 1-3 start, given how they’ve been playing. I’m a little wary of using this to pick the Jaguars since I did it against the Raiders and it backfired, but this line is double what that line was. There’s a lot of room to work with and I don’t think the Jaguars will be quite as bad this week as they’ve been thus far this season, as I mentioned earlier. Teams always cover at least 3 or 4 times per season, no matter how bad they are. This could easily be one of those times for the Jaguars.

Other trends favor the Jaguars as well. Since 2002, teams are 36-18 ATS off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more. Teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in this situation. Both teams are actually in that situation this week, but I don’t think the Rams are being undervalued and I highly doubt they’ll be overlooked given how bad the Jaguars are. Going off of that, teams are just 2-11 ATS since 1989 as 10+ point favorites off of 3+ straight losses. It’s a limited sample size, but the fact that this situation happens so rarely is important in of itself. This is an overly inflated spread. I don’t want to put too much confidence in Jacksonville, but they should be the right side.

St. Louis Rams 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +12

Confidence: Medium

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