Oakland Raiders (7-8) at Denver Broncos (6-9)

The Raiders are just 7-8, but are actually still alive for a wild card spot in the AFC. They’ll need to win this game and have several other things break their way (the Steelers and Titans both losing and the Colts winning to force a 4-way tie at 8-8 for the second wild card spot). However, the most likely scenario is the Raiders losing this game outright and ending their season. The Raiders have won 7 games, but all 7 games have come by one score or fewer, while all but two of their losses have come by at least 18 points, with the only exceptions being a game in Houston in which they lost the first down rate battle by 9.28% and a home loss to the Jaguars, who are arguably the worst team in the NFL. The Raiders rank 28th in the NFL in point differential at -105 and 29th in first down rate differential at -5.33%, so they haven’t played nearly as well as their record suggests. 

Getting back top receiver Hunter Renfrow from a 3-game absence last week certainly helps this offense, but at the same time they are missing a pair of talented offensive linemen in Richie Incognito and Trent Brown and stud feature back Josh Jacobs, a big loss for a team that wants to run the ball and be a physical offense. They managed to win in Los Angeles against the Chargers last week, but that was essentially a home game for them, given that 95% of the crowd was Raiders fans. The Chargers, who are totally out of the playoff race, seemed demotivated playing yet another home game in front of a road crowd and did not give their best effort as a result. 

Things will be different this week in Denver. The Broncos have one fewer win than the Raiders, but are significantly better in both point differential (-35) and first down rate differential (-1.44%). The Broncos also have injuries on the offensive line, missing right guard Ronald Leary and right tackle Ja’Wuan James, but James has missed most of the season and the Broncos have gotten better quarterback play in recent weeks since second round rookie Drew Lock returned from injury and took over the starting job. He’s still a raw quarterback, but it’s not hard to be an upgrade over washed up Joe Flacco and bottom of the roster talent Brandon Allen and the Broncos’ defense is what has carried them this season anyway.

This line, favoring the Broncos by 3.5 at home, suggests the Broncos are a slightly better team, so the odds makers seem to recognize that the Raiders’ record is not reflective of how they’ve actually played for most of the season, but I think we’re still getting some line value, as my calculated line is Denver -5.5. I’d need this line to go down to a field goal for this game to be worth betting, but it seems like that’s where it’s trending. It’s very possible I update this pick before gametime.

Denver Broncos 23 Oakland Raiders 17

Pick against the spread: Denver -3.5

Confidence: Low