Denver Broncos (3-4) at Atlanta Falcons (2-6)

Everyone knows the Falcons have blown three games where they had a very high win probability late and that the Falcons would be 5-3 if they hadn’t blown those leads, but the Broncos could also have a better record if quarterback Drew Lock had been healthy all season. Lock isn’t playing that well, but he’s supported by a strong defense that ranks 4th in first down rate allowed over expected at +3.83% and he’s gone 2-2 in the four games he’s been healthy, with one of the losses coming on the road at Kansas City.

Defense tends to be much more inconsistent on a week-to-week basis than offense and the Broncos offense hasn’t been good this season even with Lock under center, but the Falcons haven’t been particularly good on either side of the ball, ranking 21st in first down rate over expected and 20th in first down rate allowed over expected. Despite the fact that they could easily have 4-5 wins right now, they still rank 25th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at -1.78% and haven’t played well overall. 

The Falcons’ offense should theoretically be better than this because they’re more talented than how they’ve played, but on the flip side, their defense is very underwhelming, especially missing their top-2 edge defenders in Dante Fowler and Takkarist McKinley. Despite that, the Falcons are favored by 4 points at home with limited homefield advantage. There isn’t quite enough here for the Broncos to be worth betting, but if Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley is unable to play through a questionable tag after not practicing all week and/or Broncos defensive tackle Shelby Harris is able to get cleared from the COVID tracing protocol, the Broncos would probably be worth a play as long as the line remains above a field goal. I will have an update if needed.

Update: Ridley is out for the Falcons, but the Broncos will not only be missing Shelby Harris, but also surprisingly slot cornerback Bryce Callahan, who practiced Thursday and Friday. Callahan is one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league and his absence is an even bigger deal because the Broncos will also be without top outside cornerback AJ Bouye. The Broncos are simply too depleted in the secondary and on the defensive line to continue playing like they have in recent weeks. I’m still on the Broncos, but I would drop this to the bottom of your pick ’em pool.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Denver Broncos 23

Pick against the spread: Denver +4

Confidence: None