Houston Texans (1-3-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (1-4)

The Raiders are favored by a touchdown this week, despite being just 1-4, but they’ve been competitive in all of their losses, with an average margin of defeat of just 3.5 points, and this home game against the Texans is the easiest game they’ve played all season thus far, with the Texans ranking 31st in schedule adjusted efficiency. That’s about 8 points behind the Raiders, who actually rank 15th, despite their record.

However, the Raiders are missing a pair of key players, talented tight end Darren Waller and top cornerback Nate Hobbs, so these two teams are closer in my roster rankings than they are in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency. My calculated line is closer to 6.5 than 7, so we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Texans. It’s an insignificant amount, so there isn’t nearly enough here for the Texans to be worth betting, but I would take them for pick ‘em purposes if I had to.

Las Vegas Raiders 23 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: Houston +7

Confidence: None