San Francisco 49ers (0-0) vs. Los Angeles Rams (0-0)

Typically, the rule of thumb in international games is to take the favorite, as the better team tends to be better prepared for playing in an abnormal situation. Favorites are 40-23-1 ATS all-time in international games, including 25-11 ATS as favorites of more than 3. The Rams are favored by 3.5 in this game, but unfortunately we are not getting good value with them, even with that trend factored in. 

The Rams undoubtedly look like the best team in the league going into the season, adding Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, Myles Garrett, and Aaron Donald to a team that led the league in schedule adjusted efficiency and that was close to beating the eventual Super Bowl Champion Seahawks all three times they played them last season. However, the 49ers are a good enough team that it is hard to justify betting against them as 3.5-point underdogs, particularly early in the season. 

The 49ers have concerns because they have one of the oldest and most injury prone rosters in the league, but that is more of a long-term concern than a week 1 concern, as they are still relatively healthy to start the season, particularly on defense, where they add back Nick Bosa and Fred Warner from injuries that cost them most of last season and where they add Osa Odighizuwa and Dre Greenlaw as off-season additions, significantly improving a unit that ranked 27th in schedule adjusted efficiency last season. 

Because of age and injury concerns, the 49ers might not match their offensive performance from a year ago, when they ranked 2nd in schedule adjusted efficiency, but it is not as if they were totally healthy on that side of the ball last season either (6th most adjusted games lost) and, if injuries become a major concern again on that side of the ball, it is likely to be later in the season. The Rams are still the pick for pick ‘em purposes, but I wouldn’t recommend betting on them this week.

Los Angeles Rams 27 San Francisco 49ers 21

Pick against the spread: Los Angeles -3.5

Confidence: Low