Texans

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: 2019 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 12 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Texans

Indianapolis Colts (6-4) at Houston Texans (6-4)

This is a huge Thursday night game, as these two teams enter tied atop the AFC South. This line, favoring the hometown Texans by 3.5 points, suggests the Texans are the slightly better team. First down rate suggests that as well, as these two teams are close to even in that metric (+2.60% vs. +2.30%), but the Texans have faced the tougher schedule (5th in opponent’s DVOA vs. 27th). However, these two teams are going in different directions injury wise. While the Texans’ chances of making a deep playoff run took a big hit a few weeks ago when JJ Watt went down for the season with a torn pectoral, the Colts enter this game arguably healthier than they’ve been all season.

The Colts have had as many injuries to key players as any team in the league, as quarterback Jacoby Brissett, wide receiver TY Hilton, defensive end Jabaal Sheard, linebacker Darius Leonard, cornerbacks Pierre Desir and Kenny Moore, and safeties Malik Hooker and Clayton Geathers have all missed varying amounts of time with injury, but all eight of those players practiced in full on Wednesday and are expected to play this week, with both Desir and Hilton expected to play for the first time in about a month. Brissett was probably their biggest absence because the Colts barely lost both games in which he missed time. Most of the Colts’ wins have been close, but they could easily be 8-2 right now if Brissett hadn’t gotten hurt and something tells me the Colts would not be 3.5 point underdogs if they were 8-2.

The Colts aren’t 100% healthy, with running back Marlon Mack set to miss his first game of the season, but the Colts have enough running back depth to compensate and the Texans are also missing talented safety Justin Reid for the first time this season, a big loss. My roster rankings currently have the Colts about two points better than the Texans, which is a more accurate representation of how the talent level on these two teams compares. Given that, we’re getting good line value with the Colts as underdogs of more than a field goal (roughly 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer), so the Colts are worth betting this week.

I’m also locking in a few lines I like before the line moves. I will have full write-ups for these games and all games on Saturday as normal.

NYG +6 @ CHI

NYJ +3 vs. OAK

WAS +3.5 vs. DET

LAR +3.5 vs. BAL

Houston Texans 24 Indianapolis Colts 23

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens: 2019 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 11 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Ravens, Texans

Houston Texans (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (7-2)

In a key matchup in the AFC, the Ravens enter one game better in the standings than the Texans, but the Texans have arguably the more impressive resume. These two teams are about even in first down rate differential, with the Ravens ranking 4th at +5.08% and the Texans ranking 5th at +4.67%, but the Texans have faced the 8th toughest schedule in the NFL in terms of opponents DVOA, while the Ravens have faced the 5th easiest. 

Unfortunately for the Texans, these two teams are trending in opposite directions. While the Ravens are improved on defense due to mid-season additions of Marcus Peters and Josh Bynes, the Texans lost their top defensive player JJ Watt for the season. The Ravens hold the slight edge in my roster rankings, suggesting this line favoring the Ravens by 4.5 points at home is about right. I have the Ravens calculated as 3.5 point favorites, but that’s insignificant line value with the Texans, who aren’t in a good spot with another key game on deck against the Colts on Thursday Night Football. The Texans are still my pick, but for no confidence.

Baltimore Ravens 31 Houston Texans 27

Pick against the spread: Houston +4.5

Confidence: None

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2019 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 9 NFL Picks, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Texans

Houston Texans (5-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4) in London

The Jaguars are back at .500 at 4-4 following their victory over the Jets last week, but they only rank 24th in first down rate differential at -2.60%, as they’ve allowed 4 more first downs and 3 more offensive touchdowns than they have gained on 18 fewer snaps. That rank is consistent with my roster rankings, which have the Jaguars ranked 26th. As much as Minshew Mania has taken over Jacksonville, this offense still ranks just 26th in first down rate differential and has generated just 15 touchdowns in 8 games, while their once dominant defense ranks just 11th in first down rate allowed and has just four of it’s top-14 in snaps played remaining from 2017.

The Texans, meanwhile, rank 6th in first down rate differential at +4.41%, though the Jaguars are catching them at a good time because the Texans are very banged up right now. The big loss is obviously JJ Watt, who tore his pectoral last week, ending his season, but the Texans are also missing 3 of their top-5 in the secondary and could be without both left tackle Laremy Tunsil and right tackle Tytus Howard. In their current injury situation, the Texans rank 15th in my roster rankings, so we’re still getting some line value with them as 1.5-point favorites at a neutral site, but I would need at least Tunsil to play to bet them confidently. I will likely be updating this tomorrow morning.

Sunday Update: A few developments have happened since yesterday. Tunsil is inactive for the Texans, but the Jaguars will also be without DJ Hayden, who has arguably been their top cornerback this season, and starting wide receiver Dede Westbrook. Meanwhile, this line has shifted to Jacksonville -1. One point games aren’t that common (about 4%), but we’re getting good line value with the Texans at +1. This line suggests the Jaguars are the slightly better team on a neutral field, but I still have the Texans significant better in my roster rankings (16th vs. 26th) and I have this line calculated at Houston -4. The Texans are worth a small bet, even at less than 100%.

Houston Texans 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against the spread: Houston +1

Confidence: Medium

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans: 2019 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (3-3) at Houston Texans (4-3)

The Raiders are 3-3, but they’ve been far worse than their record, as their 3 wins came by a combined 18 points, while their 3 losses came by a combined 56 points, with none coming by fewer than 18 points. It was strange they were just 4.5 point underdogs in Green Bay last week and it’s strange that they are still just 6.5 point underdogs this week in Houston, even after losing by 18 points in Green Bay last week. This line hasn’t budged since the early line last week.

That is probably because the Texans lost on the road in Indianapolis, but that was a much closer game. The Texans are still one of the top teams in the league in first down rate differential, ranking 6th at +3.75% and they also rank 7th in my roster rankings. Meanwhile, the Raiders rank 25th in both first down rate (-3.26%) and in my roster rankings. This line should be around 10, so I’m happy to lay the 6.5 points.

Houston Texans 30 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against the spread: Houston -6.5

Confidence: Medium

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: 2019 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 7 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Texans

Houston Texans (4-2) at Indianapolis Colts (3-2)

Typically, I like to go against significant week-to-week line movement, as it tends to be an overreaction to a single week of play. The Texans were 3-point underdogs in Indianapolis last week on the early line, but after their upset victory in Kansas City, they are now 1-point underdogs, significant as about 20% of games are decided by 2 or 3 points. However, I don’t think this line has moved enough.  The Texans, who are borderline a top-5 team, should be favored by at least a field goal in this game, as the Colts are incredibly banged up, especially on defense. 

The Colts are getting safety Clayton Geathers and linebacker Darius Leonard back off of a bye week, but they will be without top cornerback Kenny Moore, top safety Malik Hooker, starting defensive lineman Tyquan Lewis, and possibly starting cornerback Pierre Desir, top edge rusher Justin Houston, and All-Pro offensive lineman Quinton Nelson, all three of whom did not practice on Friday, but have not been ruled out yet. The Texans are worth a bet this week and this could become a bigger play depending on who ends up being out for the Colts. 

Houston Texans 24 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Houston +1

Confidence: Medium

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs: 2019 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 6 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Texans

Houston Texans (3-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)

The Chiefs got off to an impressive 4-0 start, but they’ve run into some trouble. Last week, they surprisingly lost at home to a Colts team that was missing several key players on defense. Now they host a strong Texans team and they’ll have to do it at far less than 100%. Their biggest absence is defensive tackle Chris Jones, who is the best player on a defense that ranks 28th in first down rate allowed even with him on the field. Without him, they’ll have a lot of trouble stopping a Houston team that ranks 4th in first down rate. 

On top of the absence of Jones, they’ll also be without a pair of starting offensive linemen (Eric Fisher and Andrew Wyile) and leading wide receiver Sammy Watkins. They could get wide receiver Tyreek Hill back for the first time since week 1, which would make up for Watkins’ absence, but that’s far from a guarantee and he may be limited in his first game back even if he plays. Meanwhile, quarterback Pat Mahomes could be at less than 100% with an ankle injury, which was a big problem against the Colts.

With everyone that the Chiefs are missing, the Texans, who are relatively healthy, rank several spots higher than the Chiefs in my roster rankings. They also have a higher first down rate differential (+5.14% vs. +4.27%) and are in a better spot, with the Chiefs having to play again in 4 days on Thursday Night Football, a 43.8% cover spot for favorites. I hate how much line value we’ve lost in the last week (the early line was Houston +8.5 last week, but it has since moved to +4.5), but I have this line calculated at even, so we’re still getting significant value with the underdog. I like the Texans +4.5 as my Pick of the Week and I think the money line is a smart bet as well.

Houston Texans 31 Kansas City Chiefs 30 Upset Pick +170

Pick against the spread: Houston +4.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans: 2019 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 5 NFL Picks, Falcons, NFL Picks, Texans

Atlanta Falcons (1-3) at Houston Texans (2-2)

The Falcons are just 1-3, but they should be better than that going forward. They have tied for the second worst turnover margin in the NFL at -5, but turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. Matt Ryan, who has a career 2.18% interception rate on 6,377 attempts, is unlikely to continue throwing interceptions at a 3.41% rate going forward and the Falcons should recover more than 22.22% of available fumbles going forward as well. Their defense is a serious concern, ranking 29th in first down rate allowed at 40.57%, but their offense has moved the ball effectively, ranking 5th in first down rate at 40.47%, even with left tackle Jake Matthews getting off to a slow start to the season. 

The Texans are a solid team, but I have these teams about even in my roster rankings, suggesting the Texans should only be favored by 3. This line is Houston -4, which might not seem like a big difference, but about 1 in 6 games are decided exactly a field goal and about 1 in 4 games are decided by 4 points or fewer. Even if the Falcons can’t pull off the upset, we’re getting a good cushion at +4.

The Falcons are also in a much better spot. While the Texans have to worry about going to Kansas City next week, the Falcons only have a trip to Arizona on deck. Underdogs are 101-57 ATS since 2014 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. At 1-3, the Falcons should be fully focused to try to save their season, while the Texans could be looking ahead to a much bigger conference game. The Falcons could easily pull the upset and have a great chance to cover.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Houston Texans 23 Upset Pick +170

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +4

Confidence: High

Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Houston Texans (2-1)

The Panthers come into this game just 1-2, but they could easily be 3-0 right now. They lost their first 2 games by a combined 9 points, including a 3-point loss to the Rams in which they failed to recover a single one of the games four fumbles. Those games were close despite getting worse than replacement level quarterback play from Cam Newton, who was clearly not at 100% due to a foot injury and now has been shut down indefinitely. Through 2 games, Newton had the worst completion percentage above expected in the league at -9.3% and was actively hurting this team, which has a strong roster around the quarterback.

In backup quarterback Kyle Allen’s first start of the season, the Panthers got their first win of the season in a 38-20 victory in Arizona. Allen is a former undrafted free agent and only has made two career starts, but he’s played well in both starts (QB ratings of 111.3 and 144.4) and the Panthers don’t need him to be great to win games. It shouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over what Cam Newton was for the first two games of the season, though it’s premature to suggest that he should continue playing if Newton can come back healthy. He gives them the luxury of not having to rush Newton back at less than 100%, but he may ultimately prove to be a quality backup caliber player. 

It seems like we’ve lost all line value with the Panthers as a result of Allen’s strong performance last week, as the Panthers, who were 2-point underdogs in Arizona last week, are now just 4-point underdogs against a much better Texans team. Allen should have a much tougher day against Houston’s defense than he did against an Arizona defense that is missing its two starting cornerbacks. The Panthers also have some other injury concerns, with defensive end Kawaan Short, right guard Trai Turner, and cornerback Donte Jackson not practicing on Friday. They still have a solid supporting cast without those two players, but their absences will likely be felt. My calculated line is actually Houston -4.5, so the Texans are probably the better pick for pick ‘em purposes. 

Houston Texans 22 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against the spread: Houston -4

Confidence: None

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers: 2019 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (1-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-1)

This line favors the hometown Chargers by 3 points, suggesting two things: that these two teams are about equal and that the Chargers have a standard homefield advantage. I don’t think either of those are true. For one, the Chargers rarely draw home fans in Los Angeles and are just 6-9-1 ATS at home (as opposed to 12-5-2 ATS on the road) since moving there. The Texans aren’t known for having a national fanbase, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the crowd was primarily Texan fans this week. 

On top of that, I have the Texans a couple points better in my roster rankings. Even after they lost on the road in Detroit last week (and almost lost at home to the Colts week 1), the public seems to be underestimating the impact of all of the Chargers’ absences. Not having Melvin Gordon hasn’t hurt, but they’ve felt the absence of left tackle Russell Okung on the offensive line and Derwin James in the secondary. They also lost tight end Hunter Henry indefinitely last week and now are without safety Adrian Phillips, who was replacing James. Given the Chargers’ current injury situation and their lack of homefield advantage, I have this line calculated at even, so the Texans are worth a bet if you can get the full field goal. 

Houston Texans 24 Los Angeles Chargers 23 Upset Pick +145

Pick against the spread: Houston +3

Confidence: Medium

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at Houston Texans (0-1)

The season is only a week old, but the Jaguars are already pretty beat up. Their biggest injury is the loss of quarterback Nick Foles for a couple months with a broken collarbone. Sixth round rookie Gardner Minshew didn’t look bad last week in relief of Foles, but that was at home, against a Chiefs defense that was one of the worst in the league last season, and it largely came against a prevent defense in a game that wasn’t close most of the way. He’ll face a much tougher test on the road in Houston this week and the Texans will also be better prepared to face him than the Chiefs were, with close to a full game of tape to study and a week to prepare. 

Foles’ injury might be the Jaguars’ biggest, but it’s far from their only serious injury situation. The Jaguars will also again be without blindside protector Cam Robinson after he suffered a setback in his recovery from a torn ACL last week and they’ll be without cornerback AJ Bouye and defensive end Yannick Ngakoue, two of their best defensive players. This defense was already a far cry from their 2017 defense before those two injuries. Without those two, the Jaguars will have just four of their top-13 defensive players in terms of played in 2017 active in this game. In their current injury situation, this is one of the worst few teams in the league.

The Texans aren’t a great team, but I think we’re getting line value with them as 8.5 point favorites. We’re not getting a ton of line value, but I have this calculated at Houston -11 and the public seems to be underestimating the Jaguars’ injury situation. Minshew should struggle in his first career road start against a solid defense, while the Jaguars’ defense won’t be much resistance for Deshaun Watson and company. The Texans should win this with relative ease, by double digits. They’re worth a small bet.

Houston Texans 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 12

Pick against the spread: Houston -8.5

Confidence: Medium