Oakland Raiders (3-3) at Houston Texans (4-3)
The Raiders are 3-3, but they’ve been far worse than their record, as their 3 wins came by a combined 18 points, while their 3 losses came by a combined 56 points, with none coming by fewer than 18 points. It was strange they were just 4.5 point underdogs in Green Bay last week and it’s strange that they are still just 6.5 point underdogs this week in Houston, even after losing by 18 points in Green Bay last week. This line hasn’t budged since the early line last week.
That is probably because the Texans lost on the road in Indianapolis, but that was a much closer game. The Texans are still one of the top teams in the league in first down rate differential, ranking 6th at +3.75% and they also rank 7th in my roster rankings. Meanwhile, the Raiders rank 25th in both first down rate (-3.26%) and in my roster rankings. This line should be around 10, so I’m happy to lay the 6.5 points.
Houston Texans 30 Oakland Raiders 20
Pick against the spread: Houston -6.5