Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens, Uncategorized

Last week: 15 (+0)

Record: 6-6

Baltimore won a must win over Pittsburgh this week, but it was a little close for comfort for a Baltimore team whose strength is home dominance. They have just 2 home games the rest of the way as this week’s game against Minnesota in Baltimore will be followed by trips to Cincinnati and Detroit and a home game against New England. Their schedule could easily work against them as they try to nail down that 6th and final playoff spot.

Week 12 Studs

WR Jacoby Jones

LT Eugene Monroe

LE Arthur Jones

LOLB Elvis Dumervil

ROLB Terrell Suggs

CB Corey Graham

Week 12 Duds

LG AQ Shipley

C Gino Gradkowski

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San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers, Uncategorized

Last week: 19 (+3)

Record: 5-6

You could argue the Chargers have a better offense this year than the Broncos. They are moving the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 81% for the Broncos, who now rank 3rd behind San Diego and New Orleans. Philip Rivers is having a career year in terms of quarterback rating, completing 70.8% of his passes for an average of 8.52 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, good for a 106.6 QB rating, which is barely off of Peyton Manning’s 114.5 QB rating. He’s doing this without much of an offensive supporting cast and is ProFootballFocus’ highest ranked quarterback in terms of passing grade. Unfortunately, the Chargers also have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Week 12 Studs

None

Week 12 Duds

LG Johnnie Troutman

SS Marcus Gilchrist

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Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Bears, Uncategorized

Last week: 17 (-5)

Record: 6-5

Injuries, age, and the departure of defensive coaches Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli have reduced the Bears’ once proud defense to one of the worst in the NFL. If they can’t force a takeaway, they generally can’t keep their opponents from scoring, as they have forced a league worst 40 punts. It’s tough to rely on takeaways. They are allowing opponents to move the chains at a 78% rate, a rate that is increasing as injuries derail them more and more. Fortunately, their offense is doing enough to make up for it, also moving the chains at a 78% rate. Josh McCown is playing out of his mind right now, completing 65.5% of his passes for an average of 7.47 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 1 interception. I don’t know how much I trust him though. All of this is coming from a guy who is 34 years old, has a career QB rating of 74.7, and hasn’t posted a QB rating higher than 70 since 2005. He didn’t suddenly become a starting caliber quarterback. They might need to get Cutler back if they want to make the playoffs.

Week 12 Studs

WR Brandon Marshall

TE Martellus Bennett

Week 12 Duds

LT Jermon Bushrod

RT Jordan Mills

RG Kyle Long

LOLB Khaseem Greene

MLB Jon Bostic

ROLB James Anderson

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Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#18)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Titans, Uncategorized

Last week: 18 (+0)

Record: 5-6

The Titans haven’t really missed Jake Locker. He wasn’t the reason why they were winning and Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the best backups in the NFL. They still have a very solid defense led by Jurrell Casey, Alterraun Verner, two Pro-Bowl caliber players, among other players who are playing well. I don’t think they’ll get the final playoff spot, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all. A win against the slumping Colts in Indianapolis would go a long ways towards getting them in.

Week 12 Studs

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

WR Kendall Wright

RT David Stewart

ROLB Akeem Ayers

DT Jurrell Casey

CB Jason McCourty

Week 12 Duds

LT Michael Roos

RG Chance Warmack

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Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Last week: 17 (-2)

Record: 7-5

The Cowboys may be 7-5, but they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL and their schedule gets much tougher from here on out. Their 7 wins have come against teams with a combined 28-49-1 record and their final 4 games send them to Chicago and Washington and send Packers, likely with Aaron Rodgers at that point, and the Eagles, now with Nick Foles, to Dallas. The Cowboys won’t be able to rely on a +12 turnover margin and a 70.0% fumble recovery percentage forever.

Week 12 Studs

QB Tony Romo

RB DeMarco Murray

RT Doug Free

RE DeMarcus Ware

Week 12 Duds

RE Everette Brown

DT Nick Hayden

MLB Ernie Sims

FS Barry Church

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St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#21)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Rams, Uncategorized

Last week: 26 (+5)

Record: 5-6

The Rams have won their last 2 games by 21+ to put them at 5-6, but they’re not as good as their record. The way they’re winning is unsustainable. Since 1989, there have been 25 instances of a team winning by 17 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. The Rams have done that 3 times this season (and one of their other wins came against Jacksonville). Teams tend to struggle after such a game, going 6-18 ATS since 1989. I expect the 49ers to put the Rams in their place this week.

Week 12 Studs

LT Jake Long

RG Rodger Saffold

TE Jared Cook

RE Robert Quinn

DT Kendall Langford

Week 12 Duds

CB Brandon McGee

SS TJ McDonald

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#22)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Last week: 29 (+7)

Record: 3-8

It’s very clear now that the Buccaneers are better than their 0-8 start would have suggested. They have two All-Pro caliber players in Darrelle Revis and Gerald McCoy and another borderline All-Pro in Lavonte David, so, ever since Mike Glennon took over under center, they’ve been no pushover. However, I don’t feel like they’re underrated like they used to be anymore thanks to last week’s fluky win. The reason I call Tampa Bay’s win in Detroit last week fluky is because they won the turnover battle by 5. That’s really inconsistent on a week to week basis. In fact, teams who have a turnover margin of +5 in a game have an average turnover margin of +0.0 the following week. We’ll see how they do against Carolina. The Buccaneers scored 24 points despite just 10 first downs last week. Teams are 16-34 ATS since 1989 off of a game in which they scored 21+ points despite 10 or fewer first downs.

Week 12 Studs

LOLB Lavonte David

DT Gerald McCoy

Week 12 Duds

LG Jamon Meredith

RG Davin Joseph

RE William Gholston

DT Akeem Spence

CB Danny Gorrer

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New York Jets: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#23)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Jets, Uncategorized

Last week: 16 (-7)

Record: 5-6

The Jets broke their pattern of alternating wins and losses last week, getting destroyed in Baltimore. The Jets seem to lose big and win small this season and they have the NFL 2nd worst point differential at -101, only ahead of Jacksonville. Geno Smith seems to have hit a rookie wall, completing 25 of 64 (39.1%) for 345 yards (5.39 YPA), no touchdowns, and 5 interceptions over the past 3 weeks. However, they’re still right in the playoffs mix and can position themselves even better this week with a win over Miami if their dominant defensive line can completely overpower Miami’s. I think there are better teams in the AFC wild card mix though.

Week 12 Studs

LE Sheldon Richardson

RE Muhammad Wilkerson

DT Damon Harrison

Week 12 Duds

QB Geno Smith

FB Tommy Bohanon

LG Brian Winters

MLB Demario Davis

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Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Last week: 22 (-2)

Record: 5-6

Of all of the 5-6 teams in the AFC, I think the Dolphins are the worst and the least likely to make it to the playoffs. They are moving the chains at a 70% rate, thanks to large part to a dysfunctional (in more ways than one) offensive line. Defensively, they are allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate, as their retooled defense has not lived up to expectations. That’s a differential that is 30th in the NFL. They could definitely lose in New York to the Jets this week, especially if the Jets Pro-Bowl defensive line (Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, and Damon Harrison should all get Pro-Bowl consideration) completely overwhelms the Dolphins’ weak offense.

Week 12 Studs

LT Bryant McKinnie

Week 12 Duds

MLB Dannell Ellerbe

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