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New York Giants: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Giants, Uncategorized

Last week: 24 (-1)

Record: 4-7

Over the Giants’ 4 game winning streak, they beat 4 quarterbacks who currently no longer have starting jobs (Josh Freeman, Michael Vick, Terrelle Pryor, Scott Tolzien). Once they dealt with a real quarterback in Tony Romo, they had a bit of a tougher challenge. Now at 4-7, 2.5 games back of Dallas, who holds the tiebreaker, the Giants are effectively dead, even in the easiest division in football. They have a lot of building around Eli Manning to do this off-season.

Week 12 Studs

C Kevin Boothe

CB Terrell Thomas

Week 12 Duds

RE Mathias Kiwanuka

MLB Jon Beason

CB Prince Amukamara

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Houston Texans: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Texans, Uncategorized

Last week: 28 (-2)

Record: 2-9

The Texans somehow dropped back-to-back home games to the Raiders and Jaguars, but I’d still argue they are better than their record. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-12) and return touchdowns (-6 touchdowns) and by a 2-6 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. However, it would be beneficial for them to lose out and get the #1 pick. They have a lot of talent around the quarterback position. If they could get someone like Teddy Bridgewater, they’d be back in the hunt very quickly. They’re in a much better position than any team with 2 or 3 wins, save for maybe Atlanta and that’s a maybe.

Week 12 Studs

LT Duane Brown

RG Brandon Brooks

C Chris Myers

ROLB Whitney Mercilus

SS DJ Swearinger

Week 12 Duds

MLB Joe Mays

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Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Browns, Uncategorized

Last week: 23 (-4)

Record: 4-7

At one point, the Browns were 4-1 when Brandon Weeden didn’t start. Now they are 1-7 when Brian Hoyer doesn’t start and look who is going to start the Browns’ next game for them. It’s Brandon Weeden, with Jason Campbell nursing a concussion. The Browns should beat the Jaguars, but you can’t take any win for granted with Weeden under center. Weeden has been a special kind of terrible this season, completing 51.5% of his passes for 6.00 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. If the Browns don’t win this week, I don’t know when else they’d win down the stretch as their remaining 4 opponents after Jacksonville are a combined 24-19 and 3 of those 4 games are on the road. Of course, it’s probably beneficial for the Browns to lose out to give themselves the best chance at a real quarterback. The one positive of this season was the Trent Richardson trade. Now if a non-quarterback needy team like Atlanta ends up picking #1, the Browns would have the assets necessary to move up.

Week 12 Studs

WR Josh Gordon

LT Joe Thomas

Week 12 Duds

QB Brandon Weeden

WR Greg Little

TE Jordan Cameron

MLB Tank Carder

FS Tashaun Gipson

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Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Commanders, Uncategorized

Last week: 25 (-3)

Record: 3-8

Any talk of the Redskins benching RG3 is just absurd media sensationalism. This is what the media does. They build players up to undeservedly high levels and then destroy them when they fail to meet those expectations. RG3 isn’t even having that bad of a season, completing 59.8% of his passes for an average of 7.12 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, to go with 372 rushing yards on 70 carries. The Redskins’ offense is moving the chains at a 75% rate. The defense is a much bigger problem. For a 2nd year quarterback 10-11 months removed from an ACL tear, that’s not bad. Even Tom Brady wasn’t the same the year after his ACL tear and he had 4 extra months to recover, less dependency on athleticism, and no prior knee injury history. This is just something Griffin will have to play through. He’ll have his legs back under him by next year. Shutting him down will just delay his recovery. The Redskins still made the right choice trading for him and need to continue making the right choice by letting him play and keeping Mike Shanahan.

Week 12 Studs

None

Week 12 Duds

CB Josh Wilson

TE Logan Paulsen

QB Robert Griffin

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Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders, Uncategorized

Last week: 27 (-2)

Record: 4-8

Matt McGloin has been decent through 3 games, completing 62 of 109 for 799 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, stealing the starting job away from a struggling Terrelle Pryor. However, Raiders fans anointing him a starting caliber quarterback need to remember that they did the same thing with Terrelle Pryor a few weeks ago. I’ll need a few more weeks to be sold on McGloin, especially since he’s 7 months removed from no one drafting him. The Raiders may once again find themselves in need of a quarterback this off-season.

Week 12 Studs

RE LaMarr Houston

DT Pat Sims

DT Vance Walker

MLB Nick Roach

Week 12 Duds

LG Lucas Nix

CB Tracy Porter

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Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons, Uncategorized

Last week: 30 (+0)

Record: 2-9

Coming into this week, 24 of the NFL’s 32 teams were either in a playoff spot or within 1 game of a playoff spot. Of the 8 who weren’t, 4 of them made the playoffs last year, including this Falcon team. The Falcons, Texans, Vikings, and Redskins combined to go 45-19 last season, but now sit at a combined 9-32-1. Meanwhile, the Chiefs, Lions, Cardinals, and Eagles combined to go 15-49 last year, but now sit at a combined 29-16. Add in the previously 7-9 Saints and Panthers who will probably make the playoffs and you have the definition of a parity league.

Week 12 Studs

None

Week 12 Duds

RT Jeremy Trueblood

LOLB Sean Weatherspoon

FS Thomas DeCoud

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Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Uncategorized, Vikings

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 2-8-1

The Vikings blew their chance at a win last week as Green Bay came back to tie it, but it might have been more beneficial to lose that game at this point. Tying essentially locks them out of the #1 pick unless Houston, Jacksonville, and Atlanta can all win one more game. The Vikings probably don’t need to worry about winning any more games though as their final 5 opponents all have .500 or better records right now.

Week 12 Studs

FB Rhett Ellison

RT Phil Loadholt

RE Jared Allen

DT Kevin Williams

CB Xavier Rhodes

Week 12 Duds

LE Everson Griffen

LOLB Chad Greenway

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Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 2-9

The Jaguars may have won 2 games, but make no mistake about it, this is still one of the all-time bad NFL teams. While their two wins have been close by a touchdown or less, all 9 of their losses have come by double digits. They have easily the worst point differential in the NFL at -182. No one else is worse than -101. Their -14% rate of moving the chains differential is also easily the worst in the NFL, with no one else worse than -7%. In terms of DVOA, they are not only the worst team in the NFL by far this season, but they 4th worst team in terms of DVOA through 11 games since Football Outsiders started keeping the stat in 1991. The Jaguars desperately need a franchise quarterback to help them right the ship as fast as possible, but if they keep winning like this, they may be blowing their chances. They’ll need to lose to Houston in the rematch next week, in the Teddy Bridgewater bowl.

Week 12 Studs

RB Maurice Jones-Drew

Week 12 Duds

LT Cameron Bradfield

RT Austin Pasztor

LG Will Rackley

RG Uche Nwaneri

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Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jets, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (5-6) at New York Jets (5-6)

The Jets snapped their streak of alternating wins and losses by losing in Baltimore last week and now sit at 5-6. Geno Smith seems to have hit a rookie wall, completing 25 of 64 (39.1%) for 345 yards (5.39 YPA), no touchdowns, and 5 interceptions over the past 3 weeks. So they suck and should be avoided at all costs right? Well that seems to be what the public thinks as they want no part of the Jets as favorites, making the Dolphins a public underdog.

Well, there’s some truth to that. Geno Smith is easily playing like a bottom-3 quarterback right now and the Jets actually have the 2nd worst point differential in the NFL at -101, only better than Jacksonville. They are moving the chains at a mere 66% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, which ranks 27th in the NFL. However, the Dolphins might actually be worse. They are moving the chains at a 70% rate, thanks to large part to a dysfunctional (in more ways than one) offensive line. Defensively, they are allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate, as their retooled defense has not lived up to expectations.

That’s 30th in the NFL and suggests that the Jets should actually be favored by more than two points. They still have a phenomenal defensive line with 3 players who are all deserving of Pro-Bowl consideration (Damon Harrison, Sheldon Richardson, Muhammad Wilkerson). They can overwhelm the weakness of the Dolphins, their offensive line, and force the Dolphins’ offense down to the level of the Jets’ offense.

I also like how the Jets have dealt with adversity and the public and the media thinking they’re terrible over the past 2 years. This could be a real statement game for them as they seek to stay alive in the playoff race. The Jets have also been better at home this season, going 4-1 including wins over New Orleans and New England, as opposed to 1-4 on the road, where they’ve dropped their last two. Geno Smith’s quarterback rating is close to 20 points higher at home than on the road, but the Jets could win this game even if he doesn’t play well. Teams are more than just quarterbacks, especially this one. Smith completed just 8 passes in their win over the Saints. I’m taking the Jets and fading the public underdog as long as this line is 3 or lower, but I’m not that confident.

New York Jets 13 Miami Dolphins 10

Pick against spread: NY Jets -2

Confidence: None

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New York Giants at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Commanders, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (4-7) at Washington Redskins (3-8)

I’m torn on this one. On one hand, this line seems pretty off at first glance. The Giants aren’t significantly better than the Redskins, which is what this line would suggest, as the Giants are favored in Washington. The Redskins were favored by 1.5 points last week in the early line, so the line has essentially shifted 3 points in a week as a result of the Redskins’ very public blowout loss to the 49ers at home. The Redskins didn’t look good, but they still might be a better team than the Giants.

They are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 78% for their opponents, a differential that is 22nd in the NFL. The Giants, on the other hand, are moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponent, which ranks 28th. This suggests the Redskins should be favored by 4.5 points. Even if the Giants are a better team than the Redskins, it’s hard to make the argument that they’re 4.5 points better, which is what them being favored by 1.5 points on the road suggests. Football Outsiders backs this up as the Giants are just 26th in DVOA, while the Redskins are 29th. That’s pretty even.

The Redskins didn’t play well against the 49ers last week, but the 49ers are a very good team, especially off of a loss. They’ve been blowing out sub-.500 teams all season, beating them by about an average of 20.3 points per game, which is about what the Redskins lost by. There’s not a ton of shame in that. That loss also puts them in a good spot as home underdogs are 65-45 ATS since 2002 off of a loss as home underdogs. The Giants are also in a bad spot going on the road off of 3 straight home games as favorites. Teams are 26-41 ATS in that spot since 1989, including 18-31 ATS as road favorites. The Giants aren’t used to being away from home.

On the other hand, the Redskins seem to be self-destructing a little bit. On the season, they might be the better team than the Giants, but maybe not right now. They seem to be getting worse by the week, while the Giants have solved a lot of their turnover issues and are getting key players healthy. The Giants might not be 4.5 points better than the Redskins either way, but consider that NFC East teams usually are much better on the road than at home.

The NFC East is 43-75 ATS at home, as opposed to 67-54 ATS on the road. As a result, the home team in divisional matchups is just 17-27 ATS over that time frame and 26-44 ATS if you expand the sample size back to 2008. The Giants in particular are 52-32 ATS on the road since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004. Winning on the road, especially against still a small line, might not be that big of a deal.

While the Redskins are in a good spot as home underdogs off a loss as home underdogs, they’re also in a bad spot as home underdogs before being home underdogs as the Chiefs come to town next week. Teams are 67-91 ATS in that spot since 2002. Since 1989, teams are 8-16 ATS as home underdogs before being home underdogs after a loss as home underdogs, so that trend would seem to nullify the previous trend and then some.

There is also a trend that benefits the Giants as teams are 47-31 ATS as road favorites off of a loss by 1-3 points as home favorites. The Giants lost by 3 to the Cowboys last week, in another example of NFC East road supremacy. The Giants might just continue that this week, against a small line. Gun to my head, I’m taking the Redskins and fading the heavy public lean on the Giants, but I’m not confident at all.

Washington Redskins 23 New York Giants 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Washington +1.5

Confidence: None

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