This is new for the 2012 NFL Draft season. In addition to my regular scouting reports, I will also have this page, where game notes from my scouting will be posted so my reader’s can see my process. How I scout is I’ll pick two players per game to spotlight and watch everything they do, jotting down notes as I go along, along with the quarter and time remaining of the note, just for reference. The two players cannot be on the field at the same time. For example, if the game is Florida/Alabama, I can watch a player from Florida’s offense and a player from Alabama’s offense, a player from Florida’s defense and a player from Alabama’s defense, a player from Florida’s offense and a player from Florida’s defense, or a player from Alabama’s offense and a player from Alabama’s defense. This way, I can spotlight two players per game without any overlap. Of course, while doing this, I might notice something about another player that I’m not spotlighting and jot that down as well. On this page, I have links to scouting previews (my schedule for who I will scout as well as some pregame notes) and my actual scout’s notes from the games. I use this informative to compile my scouting reports and positional rankings, which are separate pages. This page is just the “behind the scenes” stuff.

 

Rogers is a one year stopgap at defensive tackle for a team who desperately needs a one year stopgap at defensive tackle and he’s getting paid, 4 million, like a one year stopgap at defensive tackle. Nothing wrong with this move.

Grade: A

 

By Sean Geddes 

 

This Sunday the Steelers take on their Rivals from crab country, the Baltimore Ravens. Steelers and Ravens weeks are by far my favorite two weeks of the season. No team tests the mettle of our teams like no one else can. An always imposing defense always brings their A-games for the Men of Steel. And offensively, despite a slow start that may have been sparked last week, they now have weapons that can challenge you on all levels from all over the field.

Who to Keep a Closer Eye On:

Maurkice Pouncey

The rookie center, who early on has been nothing but impressive, gets his biggest test(s) to date… literally. Haloti Ngata is as strong as any player in the whole league and more agile than any man his size anywhere as far as I’m concerned. Second round draft pick Terrence Cody will make his first NFL start, and looked good in his preseason appearances. Pouncey matched up with Cody for a few years in college, both playing in the SEC. The two Ravens combine for 700 pounds of human.

What is The Key to Victory:

The Play of Charlie Batch

He doesn’t have to put up 300 yards passing and three TD’s (but it wouldn’t hurt) he just has to make smart decisions and not turn the ball over. This will most likely be a low scoring game, and we can’t surrender both possessions and possibly field position.

Where The Best Battles Are:

Pretty Much Everywhere, All the time

Admittedly a cop-out, but this game is played with more intensity than any other game in the NFL all year (except maybe the second time they play [or the occasional third]). Both defenses will be flashing all over the field and popping pads in every pile.

When We Need To Be More Successful:

Late in the Game

Part of this can be attributed to either vanilla or prevent defenses, but the Steelers seem to allow teams back into late a little too often. Of course this wasn’t the case, scoring wise, last week. This is a trend that goes back a few seasons.

Why We Will Win:

By Running the Ball, Playing Steeler Defense and Forcing Turnovers

The Steelers defense has been stifling this year. Against the run, we rank third against the run. An expected potent Ravens running attack has been fairly pedestrian, and when you factor in the deep bruise to the dynamic Ray Rice, we should be able to continue stopping the run. Joe Flacco doesn’t appear to be totally on the same page with his receivers as of yet, which should help our seventeenth ranked pass defense.

The Ravens defense has also played well this season, ranking first against the pass, but struggling against the run allowing 127.7 rushing yards a game (23^rd in the NFL) and 4.7 yards per attempt (26^th in the NFL). We should try and take advantage of that early on if we can.

The clearest difference so far this season between the two defenses has been turnovers. The Steelers have benefited from 5 interceptions, and 7 forced fumbles while recovering a league leading 5 of them. Conversely, the Ravens have yet to make an interception and have forced 2 fumbles recovering only one.  Let’s look for this trend to continue on the way to a Black and Gold victory over the Birds of Baltimore in Da Burgh this Sunday.

http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/

 

Deal for 49ers: Ted Ginn is an awful receiver. He was tied for the league lead with 10 drops last year, despite having at least 23 fewer targets that the other three guys who had 10 drops. Despite his speed, he only averaged 1.4 YAC per catch. However, he’s an amazing kick returner and can help the Niners there in a big way. On 52 returns, he had 1296 yards and 2 touchdowns last year and for the Niners, who struggled in the return game, that could help them win games. Not bad for a 5^th round pick, even if they have to pick up his salary.

Grade: B

Deal for Dolphins: They obviously were done with the 2007 9^th overall pick. Ginn is a good kick returner, but there are plenty of other kick returners in the league they could use at a cheaper price. This deal is pretty much a wash for both sides.

Grade: B

 

 

Quarterback

Florida

6-3 236

40 time: 4.72

Draft board overall prospect rank: #12

Draft board quarterback rank: #3

Overall rating: 88*

 3/17/10: He didn’t look great in terms of throwing delivery at his Pro Day, but he certainly, mechanically looked a ton better than he did in the Senior Bowl and all last season. In fact, the work he has made on his throw is a huge testament to his amazing work ethic and love of the sport. He’s still a project and far from a finished project, but he has good upside and I think he has the work ethic to fulfill it. I don’t see why some places regard him as less than a 2^nd round prospect.

1/30/10: Contrary to what the media is saying, Tebow did not struggle in the Senior Bowl, in fact, his Senior Bowl was painfully neutral. I say painfully because I wanted him to either show me he’s not a true quarterback or that he is, but he did neither. He didn’t make a ton of tough throws, although he threw one impressive curl, and he completed 8 (should have been 9 if it weren’t for an easy drop) out of his 12 throws, but he was operating with Miami’s playbook which is one of the most college esque playbooks in the NFL. Basically, he was playing with the same Florida playbook he was comfortable and we didn’t get to see him be challenged by a pro style offense. So, basically, I learned nothing about Tebow in his Senior Bowl. 

1/16/10: Showed in the Sugar Bowl his ability to throw the football and step up in big games by throwing more touchdowns than incompletions, but his mechanics are still poor. However, I don’t believe he has a single mechanical issue that can’t be fixed at the next level and he’s an extremely hard worker. His intangibles are off the chart. Right now the #10 pick is his to lose, based off of the comments Jaguars owner Wayne Weaver made about him earlier this season, so he’ll need to step it up once again in the Senior Bowl.

12/12/09: Alabama exposed his weaknesses, but this is a hell of a tough player who can play quarterback at the next level, though he’ll do it rather unconventionally and won’t fit all offenses.

Update (11/2/09): I love to watch him play, but I fear that his ugly release will cancel out his heart and hustle at the next level.

7/2/09: Many people don’t like Tim Tebow as an NFL quarterback prospect. Do not count me as one of those people. Yes, he plays in an unconventional system and has an unconventional skill set, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Look at Ben Roethlisberger. He came into the league with very little experience playing from under center and in the pocket, and it didn’t matter, because that’s not the type of player he is. Both Tebow and Roethlisberger move around in the pocket in the backfield, roll out of the pocket, move away from defenders, break tackles, and extend the play, sometimes even with a long run. Both Big Ben and Tebow are great leaders who seemingly can will their teams to victory at times. Many people will mistake Tebow for a great quarterback. He’s not and neither is Roethlisberger. Both are great leaders from the quarterback position, that make smart decisions, make everyone better, and have all those intangibles, like toughness and that uncanny knack to get people to follow them. His arm is a little weaker than Roethlisberger, but its actually stronger than most scouts think. Many people don’t like Tim Tebow as an NFL quarterback prospect. But that’s just how he likes it. No one has ever really believed in him and he plays that way on the football field, with a chip on his shoulder. He’ll be a great addition to any team, whether as a quarterback, running back, wildcat, but he’ll have the most value as a quarterback. And if he’s lucky he’ll get a perfect situation, a good team that lacks an offensive leader, such as Minnesota, and he can be the one that will take that team to the places it wants to go.

NFL Comparison: Ben Roethlisberger

*For a breakdown of what this means, click here

 

This is the 2^nd player in as many days that the Eagles have extended despite having two years remaining on their contract. Given that Cole is 30 in October, this deals locks him up from the year he turns 32 to the year he turns 35. Given that, 13 million per year (4 years, 53 million) seems a little rich, but there isn’t a whole lot of guaranteed money (15 million) so it’s not too bad. Cole is currently one of the league’s best pass rushers.

Grade: B

 

 

Brett Favre was amazing in 2009 and this team almost went to the Super Bowl. Brett Favre was terrible in 2010, getting benched for Joe Webb, who also sucked. Now, former Eagles’ and Redskins’ quarterback Donovan McNabb is the starting quarterback and many Vikings fans feel he can get them back into the playoffs. However, this is not the same Donovan McNabb who led the Eagles to a Super Bowl in 2004.

In his first and last year in Washington, he was a very mediocre quarterback. Several things are at play here. Washington’s supporting cast was not very good. Also, McNabb is getting older. Finally, Andy Reid likely just made McNabb look better than he was in Philadelphia. Once leaving Reid’s offense, McNabb was exposed. It wouldn’t be the first time this has happened. AJ Feeley looked much worse after leaving Philadelphia for Miami in 2004. Meanwhile, Reid turned Michael Vick into a potential Super Bowl winning quarterback.

Besides, it’s not like the Vikings have the same supporting cast they had in 2009 either. Their struggles in 2010 weren’t just at the quarterback position and they figure to be even worse supporting cast wise in 2011. Gone are Pat Williams and Ray Edwards two starters on the defensive line. They will be replaced by Brian Robison and Remi Ayodele, two average at best players.

They will play alongside Jared Allen and Kevin Williams, who are still good players, but have lost a step since 2009. After a league leading 48 sacks in 2009, the Vikings had a mere 31 in 2010, a number that could be even lower this season with Edwards, 8 sacks and 32 quarterback pressures in 2010, gone. Pat Williams was not a great pass rusher, but they’ll feel his loss against the run, where even at his age, 39 in October, he was one of the better players in the league. Going from Edwards to Robison is also a major downgrade in terms of run stopping ability.

If new starter Ayodele struggles at defensive tackle, the Vikings have Letroy Guion, a promising young player, to plug in the hole. They also have Christian Ballard, a 4^th round pick who could have gone in the 2^nd had it not been for a positive test for marijuana at The Combine. I feel the positive test is a non-issue and that the Vikings are getting a very talented player for the future in Ballard, though he’ll be hurt by the lockout. At defensive end, however, their options behind Brian Robison are very limited. Everson Griffen was a 4^th round pick in 2010, but he struggled as a rookie and got arrested several times this offseason.

At linebacker, EJ Henderson is an above average player in the middle when healthy, but he’s suffered several serious injuries in his career. He played a full game 16 set last year so maybe he’s put those days behind him. On the strong side, the Vikings were able to bring back Chad Greenway, 4^th in the league in tackles last season, with the franchise tag. That’s obviously huge.

However, they were unable to resign Ben Leber. Leber was a fairly marginal starter for them, but he’s a hell of a lot better than what they now have on the weak side. Currently Erin Henderson is penciled in as a starter. Henderson, the younger brother of EJ Henderson, was an undrafted free agent out of Maryland in 2008 and has been nothing but a career backup since.

The Vikings say he is penciled in as the starter, but I don’t see who else on the roster could take his job unless Ross Homan can have a big preseason. That seems unlikely because Homan is a mere 6^th round rookie who will be hurt by the lockout. He’s also currently listed as the 3^rd stringer at middle linebacker so the chances of him taking the weak side job are very, very slim, at least for right now.

The Vikings actually ranked 9^th in the league against the pass last year, but I’m predicting a steep decline in that ranking this season because I just don’t see the talent there. #1 cornerback Antoine Winfield is 34, right around the age when cornerbacks begin a steep decline. Opposite him is Cedric Griffin, who can’t stay healthy. He wasn’t a great player before his injuries and his injuries could have only made him worse.

The Vikings have spent a lot of picks on cornerbacks in the past few years, but 2009 3^rd round pick Asher Allen and 2010 2^nd round pick Chris Cook have both struggled in their careers to this point. 2011 5^th round pick Brandon Burton is currently listed as 5^th on the depth chart. I thought he was a steal of a draft pick when they got him, but he too will be hurt by the lockout.

At safety, Husain Abdullah struggles a bit against the pass, but is above average against the run. Meanwhile, new free safety Eric Frampton is a very inexperienced player. Fun fact, Eric Frampton went to Oak Grove High School, down the street from my house. Other alumni include Gibril Wilson, Andre Carter, and Seyi Arijotutu. Also, Mike Holmgren used to teach and coach there. Anyway, the Vikings secondary doesn’t have a lot of talent. They aren’t supported by a great pass rush either so they could really struggle this season.

 

Offensively, Donovan McNabb is now the quarterback. He should provide stability at the position for the season and allow Christian Ponder to ease his way into action, always a good thing. However, that’s about all he’ll do. He won’t win them a lot of games. He’s an average quarterback who borders on mediocre at this point in his career and I don’t know how much a change of scenery will do for him.

McNabb’s chances for a bounce back season are hurt by his supporting cast. Bryant McKinnie, long time left tackle of the Vikings, was cut in camp because he showed up at about 400 pounds. I don’t know how he thought he’d get away with that. What did he think the team wouldn’t notice? Anyway, he’ll be replaced by Charlie Johnson, who couldn’t even adequately protect Peyton Manning’s blindside for him. Peyton Manning’s blindside is the easiest to protect in the league. He has eyes in the back of his head. He doesn’t have a blindside (only sort of kidding). How is Johnson supposed to protect McNabb’s?

At right tackle, Phil Loadholt struggles with weight issues. He was a horrendous run blocker last season and committed 14 penalties. The Vikings drafted DeMarcus Love in the 6^th round as a potential successor for Loadholt, allowing Loadholt to move to any easier position like guard. However, Love, like all rookies, will be hurt by the lockout. He’s currently a 3^rd stringer and shouldn’t see much playing time this season.

At center, John Sullivan wasn’t as bad as he’s been in past years, but he was still pretty bad, especially as a run blocker. Left guard Steve Hutchinson is clearly their best offensive lineman. He’s not the beast run blocker he was in Seattle or in his early Minnesota days, but he’s still an above average left guard. However, opposite him, right guard Anthony Herrera is a terrible run blocker. I don’t know how he still has a job. The Vikings were hoping Brandon Fusco, a 6^th round pick, would at least be able to challenge Sullivan at center or Herrera at guard, but he too was hurt by the lockout. He’s currently listed as a 3^rd stringer.

Fortunately the Vikings have Adrian Peterson because they don’t run block very well upfront. Peterson is about as reliable as they come. They drafted him 7^th overall in 2007 and he hasn’t disappointed. Last season he had a career low with 1298 yards. He’s also never had less than 10 scores in a season. The Vikings drafted Toby Gerhart in the 2^nd round in 2010, but he won’t see much action unless Peterson gets hurt. Basically, he’ll have the same role he did in 2010.

At wide receiver, with Sidney Rice gone, the pressure will fall on Percy Harvin, a 2009 first round pick, to continue to improve and become a legitimate #1 receiver. He’s now in his 3^rd season, that magical season when wide receivers tend to break out. He could be primed for a huge season if McNabb finds the same connection with him as he had with Santana Moss last season. They are similar players so it’s possible.

Opposite Harvin, Michael Jenkins and Bernard Berrian will fight it out to be the #2 receiver. Jenkins, a former 1^st round pick, has never had more than 53 catches or 777 yards or 7 touchdowns in a season despite working with Matt Ryan and Michael Vick in his career. Meanwhile, Bernard Berrian is far from the #1 receiver he was in 2007 with Chicago or 2008 with these Vikings. He managed just 252 yards on 28 catches last season and didn’t score. It’s safe to say Donovan McNabb won’t be thrilled no matter who wins the #2 job.

Something McNabb does have to get at least a little excited about is his tight ends. Visanthe Shiancoe is still listed as the starter, though it’s very possible he’d be 2^nd on the depth chart to rookie 2^nd round pick Kyle Rudolph had Rudolph not been hurt by the lockout. The talented Rudolph is apparently lighting it up in camp. Meanwhile, Shiancoe is an average tight end. The Vikings will use a lot of two tight ends sets this season so both Shiancoe and the rookie Rudolph will have an impact.

People living in 2009 would say this team has a good chance to bounce back into the playoffs this season. In 2009, McNabb led the Eagles to the playoffs and the Brett Favre led Vikings made the NFC Championship. However, this team was not just a quarterback away in 2010. Favre did a great job of masking their flaws in 2009 and the supporting cast has declined since anyway. McNabb will give them decent quarterback play, but unless Detroit implodes, I don’t see any way this team finishes outside the cellar in the NFC North.

Quarterback: C+

Running backs: A

Receiving corps: C-

Offensive line: D

Run defense: B-

Pass rush: C

Pass coverage: C-

Coaching: C

Projection: 6-10 4^th in NFC North

 

 

Last week overall: 13-3

Last week ATS: 10-5-1 (+320/+7%)

Overall picks: 104-56 (.650)

ATS Picks: 82-72-6 (+$1950)

Lock picks: 7-4

Upset picks: 17-19

Sports Betting FAQ 

Week 11 Recap: Week 11 was kind of the anti-week 10. Week 10 I made some money in spite of a losing record. I went 6-8 making 360 dollars in the process, of 9% of my total bet amount. Week 11 I made money as well, 320 dollars, 7% of my total bet amount. However, looking at my 10-5-1 record, I should have made more. What went wrong? Well, I whiffed on my two highest bets, Seattle +12 (they lost by 15) and Arizona +9 (I don’t want to talk about it). Also, the Colts came back from a 17 point deficit to force a backdoor push at +3 (but, I’m a Pats fan and they won so I can’t complain). Excluding those three just mentioned, I was 10-3 on the week, going 4-2 with my 3 unit picks. My only other miss was Detroit +6.5 over Dallas for 2. That one was close until the 4^th quarter when the Cowboys pulled away with a late kickoff return TD. In straight up picks, I went 13-3, my best week of the season and my best week in recent memory, and I finally nailed my lock pick after dropping 3 straight, as the Ravens destroyed the Panthers on the strength of 2 TAINTs.

New England 31 Detroit Lions 13 Lock Pick

Spread: New England -6.5

Pick against spread: New England 4 units (+400)

I know I always bring up that stat that home teams are 24-11 on Thursday Night at home. However, it’s different this week. No, I’m not changing my mind because Dolphins bombed at home last week missing like half of their lineup. That’s one game. However, the Lions are the exception to this rule. Lions playing on Thanksgiving is a tradition, but so is the Lions losing on Thanksgiving.

Since 2001, they’ve hosted 9 home Thanksgiving games and won one of them (2003). Since 2003, they’ve lost their last 7 Thanksgiving home games by an average of 24.3 points. They can’t even win on Thanksgiving when they have a winning record (as was the case in 2007). They’re one of only 3 teams to lose a home Thursday game with a winning record since 2006. Also, there is no one I trust more to prepare for a short week than Belicheck/Brady. They’ve only had 1 Thursday Night Game in the Brady/Belicheck era, but they won it, for what that counts.

Also, I think we’re getting line value with the Pats. The Lions are coming off their biggest loss of the year, to a previously 2 win team. They also lost the week before to the Bills. They’ve mailed it in with Stafford hurt yet again. They’re not the backdoor cover machines they were in Hill’s first stint as starter. They’re definitely more than 6.5 points worse than the 8-2 Patriots, and I expect the final score to reflect that at the end of the day.

New Orleans 35 Dallas 27

Spread: New Orleans -3.5

Pick against spread: New Orleans 2 units (-220)

Yes, the Cowboys do have a Thanksgiving home game and the Saints have to travel on short rest. Yes, only 3 teams with winning record have lost at home on a Thursday Night since 2006, but the Cowboys don’t have a winning record. I think the Jason Garrett Cowboys can win this one at home, but at the same time I love getting to take Brees against this atrocious Cowboys defense and secondary (with Phillips and with Garrett) over Jon Kitna +3.5.

Also, the Saints are at full strength now, getting key defensive players back and likely getting Bush back. They’ve won their last 2 with ease and I like getting them in a fairly even line here for 2 units and only 2 because the Cowboys are playing well and at home on a Thursday Night.

New York Jets 31 Cincinnati Bengals 14

Spread: NY Jets -9

Pick against spread: NY Jets 2 units (+200)

Logic says not to take the Jets big here. They haven’t won by more than 9 since week 4. However, I’m going to take them -9 for multiple units. It’s not a big play, but I love the Jets this week to finally win by more than 9.

First of all, the Jets dominated this matchup twice last year. The Bengals are worse than they were last year by a lot and seemed to have mailed it in. The Bills game was clear evidence of that. The Jets, meanwhile, have gotten a lot better since those two games. Mark Sanchez has become a legitimate franchise quarterback and this passing game is now as deadly, if not deadlier than their running game. They can tear apart a Cincy secondary that’s missing two key starters.

Also, they’re a home team on Thursday Night and on Thanksgiving, normally a good sign a team, especially a good team like the Jets, is going to dominate. I would go 3+ units, even against a big line here, but because of the fact that the Jets haven’t won by more than 9 since week 4 and the fact that the Bengals are good at back door covers, I’m going with the Jets for only two.

Atlanta Falcons 34 Green Bay Packers 28

Spread: Atlanta -1.5

Pick against spread: Atlanta 2 units (+200)

The Packers have won their last 2 by combined scores of 76-10, getting two coaches fired in the process (Wade and Chilly). However, Matt Ryan has lost once at home in his career. I’ve stuck with that all year and it’s won me big so I’m going with it again here.

The Packers aren’t playing the Cowboys or Vikings here. They’re playing arguably the best team in the NFC in a place where they rarely lose. I’m taking the Falcons against an even line bet, but only putting two units on it because the Packers are a very complete team as well.

Pittsburgh Steelers 28 Buffalo Bills 12

Spread: -6 Pittsburgh

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh 4 units (-440)

I think we’re getting very good line value here with the Steelers. Two weeks ago, the Bills would have been -10 at least here. Two weeks later they’re -6 and  what have they done, except beat 2 teams that have won a combined 4 games?

Ryan Fiztpatrick hasn’t seen anything like the Steelers’ defense and they eat weak armed quarterbacks like him up. The Steelers offense is stuttering a bit now with a banged up offensive line, but the Bills can’t pass rush and Rashard Mendenhall could be such a factor against a terrible Buffalo run defense that the Bills can’t blitz at all, especially if they’re trailing big. The Steelers destroyed the Raiders last week and I expect them to do the same this week.

 

Carolina Panthers 17 Cleveland Browns 16 Upset Pick

Spread: -10 Cleveland

Pick against spread: Carolina 5 units (+500)

Jake Delhomme is getting all the snaps in practice for the Browns. The Panthers are the Panthers. Betting on Jake Delhomme and betting on the Panthers are normally both good ways to lose money. The catch, the line is 10 points. 10 points! In favor of Delhomme! Delhomme has trouble scoring 10 points. I’d say there’s a 50-50 chance that Delhomme doesn’t even score 10 points.

This line was just posted today and I don’t know if Vegas realizes that McCoy likely isn’t going to be starting in this one, but get this line while you can. Jake Delhomme -10 vs. anyone. It’s a gamblers dream. Jimmy Clausen will be back for Carolina, which is better than Brian St. Pierre. This only reason this isn’t a 6+ unit pick is because, well it’s the Panthers.

If that’s not enough, the Browns even with Colt McCoy, are probably a 6 win or worse team. To win 7 games, they’d be have go 4-2. Teams that go 6-10 or worse are 19-49 as 6+ point favorites since 2002. The Browns are 10 point favorites missing their starting quarterback. The Browns are also double digit favorites coming off of a loss. Since 2002, teams are 34-61 as 10+ point favorites coming off of a loss. Also, it’s Jake Delhomme. Just saying.

Because I expect this line to go down once Vegas realizes its Delhomme, here’s my breakdown.

Browns -9+ 5 units Panthers

Browns -6-8 4 units Panthers

Browns -4-5 3 units Panthers

Browns -1-3 2 units Panthers

Even line 1 unit Panthers

Panthers favored 1 unit Browns 

But get it while you can!!! 

New York Giants 26 Jacksonville Jaguars 23

Spread: NY Giants -7.5

Pick against spread: Jacksonville 1 unit (+100)

I give up betting on Jacksonville’s games. I’m 1-9 against the spread in their games this year. Instead I’m just going with the points here for 1 unit. Also, the Giants are playing badly and are known for second half slumps, but that might be too much analysis for my own good. Points for 1 unit it is. I considered two because of the huge line and the Giants tendency to slump in the 2^nd half, but I’m not falling for it again.

Minnesota Vikings 31 Washington Redskins 28 Upset Pick

Spread: -1.5 Washington

Pick against spread: Minnesota 2 units (+200)

Call me crazy, but after seeing the culture change in Dallas under Jason Garrett, I think there could be one in Minnesota under Leslie Frazier. Brad Childress was someone the players weren’t responding to, someone the players didn’t like. This is still a talented team, just like Dallas, and they have the weapons to exploits the Redskins terrible defense.

I think Favre finally has a good game, helped by Adrian Peterson against the Redskins lowly ground defense and the Vikings in a close upset. Favre also gets Sidney Rice another game healthy. The Redskins rank 23^rd against the pass and dead last against the run.

Houston Texans 24 Tennessee Titans 21

Spread: -6.5 Houston

Pick against spread: Tennessee 1 unit (-110)

This is a tough one. Rusty Smith is a bad quarterback, as he showed late against Washington, though he could be better with a week of practice with the first time. At the time same, the Texans could over look the Titans for that and the Texans have lost 4 straight overall and 6 straight against the spread. That doesn’t make them a good bet favored by a touchdown.

The Titans can still do some things defensively and they still have Chris Johnson and Randy Moss. The Texans might key in on Johnson with Young out and finally leave Moss open downfield against a terrible Texans secondary. However, Rusty Smith might not have the arm strength to hit him deep and Moss might not even care right now on a 5-5 team without its starting quarterback.

However, the Texans could also key in on Moss and let Johnson run free on them.  Betting a team starting a backup, especially a talented one, is normally a good bet, but that’s how I lost with Miami and Dallas in recent weeks. When in doubt, go with the points for 1 unit.

Seattle Seahawks 26 Kansas City Chiefs 16 Upset Pick

Spread: -1 Kansas City

Pick against spread: Seattle 4 units (-440)

The Chiefs continue to be overrated by Vegas. They’ve beaten the early season Chargers, the Seneca Wallace Browns, the 49ers, the Jags, the Bills and the Cardinals. The Seahawks are a legitimately good team with Hasselbeck and Okung protecting him. They didn’t look it in the Superdome thanks to penalties, but this is a much better team at home.

Matt Cassel can’t win games where he has to play catch up or where the opposing defense can take away his ground game. Seattle can at least make them play catch up, especially at home.

Oakland Raiders 20 Miami Dolphins 16

Spread: Oakland -1

Pick against spread: Oakland 1 unit (-110)

Chad Henne is expected to start in this one, but his first game is a tough test. He has to go into Oakland. Oakland is a tough place to place and it’s a 3 time zone road game, which is always a bad spot. He will be missing Brandon Marshall and his offensive line is still awfully banged up, facing one of the best pass rushes in the league.

Also, teams tend to slack off once their quarterback returns from an injury. This could happen especially this week because Miami likely won’t take Oakland seriously coming off that horrible loss to the Steelers. Plus, they are the Raiders. The Dolphins, meanwhile, looked absolutely terrible last week 

St. Louis Rams 28 Denver Broncos 16 Upset Pick

Spread: -4 Denver

Pick against spread: St. Louis 5 units (+500)

The Rams have yet to win on the road and Denver can be a very tough place to play, but I’m going with the Rams just because I think we’re getting points with the better team. I’m not 100% percent that Bradford and the Rams will get their first road win this year in this game, but I have 4 points to work with and Denver is falling apart right now.

The Rams may not have won on the road this year, but 3 of those losses were by 3 or fewer and this is a 4 point spread and a worse team than teams like Oakland, San Francisco, and Tampa Bay, the three they’ve lost to on the road by less than 3.

The Chargers destroyed the Broncos’ pass offense with their blitz and amazing pass rush and the Rams can do exactly the same thing. The Broncos also are coming off a deflating loss and will probably feel like their season is over. Even if they don’t, teams coming of MNF losses of 17 or more are 16-32 ATS since 1999.

I feel very confident taking the Rams for 5 because they’ve only lost on the road by 4 or more once this year, because the Broncos should not be favored by 4, because the Rams defense matches up well with Denver’s offense, and because the Broncos might not give this their all after an embarrassing loss that ended their season.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19

Spread: -9 Baltimore

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay 1 unit (+100)

I don’t know why Tampa isn’t getting any love. They’re 7-3 and coming off an impressive win in San Francisco, a tough place for a young quarterback to play. They’re getting better every week and they’re not that same team that lost by a combined 50 to the Steelers and Saints.

They hung within a touchdown of Atlanta in Atlanta a few weeks ago and then there was that impressive win last week. Josh Freeman is getting better as the year has gone on and so is Mike Williams. Also the emergence of LeGarrette Blount has helped. I’d say, talent wise, Tampa Bay is significantly less than 9 points worse than Baltimore.

The Ravens also shoot themselves in the foot a lot. They haven’t done it quite as much this year, but they did lose to Cincinnati, barely beat the Seneca Wallace Browns, and needed overtime to beat the winless Bills. The Bengals are terrible and the Browns and Bills were teams they were heavily favored over and they didn’t cover.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Chicago Bears 13

Spread: Philadelphia -3.5

Pick against spread: Philadelphia 3 units (-330)

Chicago might have the defense that can stop Michael Vick, simply because their defense is one of the most athletic in the NFL. However, with the way Vick is playing, there’s no way I bet Cutler +3.5 over him. The Bears continue to be worse than their record suggests. The way the Dolphins were playing last week, they should have crushed the Dolphins.

I like their defense, not their offense, and you need both to beat the Eagles the way they’re playing right now, as the Giants showed last week. The Giants athletic defense limited Vick, but their suddenly dysfunctional offense couldn’t do anything to take advantage of that.

San Diego Chargers 35 Indianapolis Colts 31 Upset Pick

Spread: Indianapolis -3

Pick against spread: San Diego 3 units (+300)

I’m going with the Chargers here and yes it’s because the Chargers have owned Peyton Manning in recent years. No one plays Peyton Manning tougher than these Chargers and for the first time in this matchup, the Chargers signal caller is someone who I think is playing as well, if not better than Peyton Manning. You heard Jon Gruden suck his cock all Monday Night, this kid is talented.

Plus, we’re getting the Chargers as underdogs. Rivers has only lost 4 career games as an underdog, the same amount as Peyton Manning. As big time MNF losers struggle in their next game, big time MNF winners do really well in their next game. Teams that win on MNF by 17+ are 36-21 ATS since 1999. I like the Chargers with that stat against a Colts team that could be flat off of a heartbreaking loss to the Pats.

San Francisco 49ers 23 Arizona Cardinals 12 Upset Pick

Spread: -1 Arizona

Pick against spread: San Francisco 4 units (+400)

I don’t understand why this is a Monday Night Football game. Who thought this was a good idea? Maybe a lot of people had the 49ers as a 9 or 10 win team, but the Kurt Warner-less Cardinals? How did they not foresee them being terrible. 

That’s not the only thing I don’t understand. I don’t understand why this is an even matchup. The Cardinals are terrible. They can’t do anything right. Their point differential of -103 is 2^nd worst in the league to Carolina. Their combined quarterback rating is 2^nd worst in the league to Carolina. They can’t run the ball and they can’t stop anyone.

They do have 3 wins but one was by 4 in Sam Bradford’s NFL debut, one was by 1 to the Oakland when the Raiders missed a game winning chip shot field goal, and the other was by 10 over New Orleans. In only one of those wins can you say, the Cardinals outplayed the other team and deserved to win and that was that perfect storm game against New Orleans.

The 49ers will be eager to prove themselves after a home shutout. Teams normally are going 19-9 ATS since 2002 after a home shutout in their next game. I love San Francisco to stomp the Cardinals here.

 

 

TE Jermichael Finley- Green Bay

Limited in practice this week, but upgraded from questionable to probable late this week, always a good sign. He should be a safe start.

WR Lance Moore- New Orleans

The oft injured Moore has been ruled out for the season opener with a groin injury.

WR Roddy White- Atlanta

Don’t worry about his probable listing with a thigh injury. He’ll play and be 100%.

TE Ben Watson- Cleveland

Watson missed practice Wednesday and was limited Thursday, but he was upgraded from questionable to probable after a full practice Friday. He’ll play.

RB Arian Foster- Houston

Foster is listed as a game time decision for Sunday’s game, but everyone in the know seems to think he won’t play. This is a 1 o’clock start, however, so you can check his status before the game and swap him out of need be.

QB Peyton Manning- Indianapolis

He won’t play.

WR Austin Collie- Indianapolis

Collie has been upgraded to probable, but he might not be 100% and I don’t know how safe a play he is without Peyton Manning. I have no idea how Kerry Collins will use his weapons so I can’t guarantee Collie will have a good game. You might want to go with a safer option.

QB Matt Cassel- Kansas City

Cassel is expected to play through cracked ribs. However, if he’s your QB1, you’re fucked anyway.

RB Daniel Thomas- Miami

Thomas looks like a game time decision for the New England game. This game is Monday Night so you’re really chancing it leaving him in the lineup. He’s not even the starter so I don’t know why you’d do that.

WR Plaxico Burress- NY Jets

Burress has always had ankle problems, but he’ll play this week. I just don’t think he’s that good anymore.

WR Sidney Rice- Seattle

Rice is listed as doubtful with a shoulder injury. That’s pretty much a guarantee he won’t play. No one listed as doubtful played last year.

 

 

What is this? Well, in addition to our own Power Rankings, we are going to post this top 15 called the Ultimate Football Rankings (UFB Rankings). It’s compiled of a bunch of rankings of a bunch of good sites, including ours (see bottom) and adds a contrast to our regular Power Rankings. More sites will be added as the weeks go on.

(1)  1. Green Bay Packers (8)  –  4 – 0   next at Atlanta Falcons

Green Bay’s offense is unstoppable, putting up 27 points in each game so far, while the defense has improved in every game as well.  We just want to know why Aaron Rodgers remained the starter when the score was 42-17. You can blame his second interception of the season on a tip that happened at that point.  Peyton Manning’s injury should of been a wake up call, get your second string QB as familiar as possible, you never know.

(2)  2. New Orleans Saints  3 – 1   next at Carolina Panthers

 A decent win in Jacksonville considering that the yard markers on the field were pointing the wrong way. Blaine Gabbert was confused by this, but Drew Brees, the veteran, was not.   Brees’ air attack continues to rule the day for New Orleans.  This week Brees should have another fantasy day, little struggle against a struggling Carolina defense.

(3)  3. New England Patriots (1)  –  3 – 1   next vs New York Jets

 The Patriots don’t like to lose, and seldom do so twice in a row.  It’s all about the defense for New England, their offense is dominant and cannot be stopped, but unfortunately the defense has many weak spots and is thin. They can beat any team in the league at any time, but games like Buffalo this past week can also happen.  Nice rebound against Oakland, now it’s off to play Big Mouth Rex Ryan and the New York Jets, should make for a great game.

(4)  4. Detroit Lions  4 – 0   next vs Chicago Bears (Monday Night)

Did the Cowboys choke?  Maybe, but the Lions were relentless.  With 7 more home games left, unless Stafford goes down…No way they miss the playoffs…..We have never seen a WR like Calvin Johnson, EVER!. Might be the best jump ball receiver.

(5)  5. Baltimore Ravens  3 – 1   next bye

 Outside of that weird Week 2 loss at Tennessee, the Ravens have been very impressive this season. Despite Joe Flacco’s mid-game struggles, they were dominant against the Jets.  With big home win over Jets, Ravens remain in the top 5.

(6)  6. Houston Texans  3 – 1   next vs Oakland Raiders

 The Defense (yes, capital ‘D’) returned against the Steelers.  We are finally seeing a well rounded team, a team we all knew Houston could be.  Can they keep it???  Next challenge is the surprising Oakland Raiders, will the defense stop Mc Fadden?

(10) 7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers  3 – 1   next at San Fransisco 49ers

 They could have lost to the Colts … but they didn’t.  Team is young and raw, but due to losses from 3 teams ahead of them last week, the Bucs move up three spots this week.  Josh Freeman is a gamer and is gonna be something big in this league.  Pretty evenly match up this week, lets see if they can handle the pressure.

 

(13) 8. San Diego Chargers  3 – 1   next at Denver Broncos

 The Chargers are fattening their record against patsies like the Dolphins.  Their wins have come against teams with a combined record of 1-11.  Sure it is a change for them to start the season off on a winning note, but it is hard to tell how good they are with such a weak schedule.

(NR) 9. Tennessee Titans  3 – 1   next at Pittsburgh Steelers

It feels odd to have the Titans ahead of both the Steelers and Jets. But, Pittsburgh is old and slow. As for New York, Tennessee has the better offense and defense (at least statistically).  Titans kept pace with Texans with win over Browns.

(12) 10. New York Giants  3 – 1   next vs Seattle Seahawks

Giants got second-straight road win by holding off Cardinals.  We might start moving these guys up. When Manning is on, they’re great. Too bad it’s one quarter of the game.  Won’t get a better look at this team due to easy opponent, but Buffalo comes to town next week.

(9)  11. Pittsburgh Steelers  2 – 2   next vs Tennessee Titans

No team is hurting more, O line is horrible. Big Ben will be on a stretcher by week 10 if this keeps up and now Mendenhall?  Defense has to be bigger then they ever have been just to stay in the hunt.  This is starting to look like the real Steelers, and it’s not a pretty picture.

(7)  12. Buffalo Bills  3 – 1   next vs Philadelphia Eagles

Ugly collapse in Cincinnati.  This is why we were one of very few power rankings that didn’t move them up inside the top 5 just because they beat New England.  Eagles looking for redemption this week, might knock Buffalo out of the top 15.

(NR) 13. Washington Redskins  3 – 1   next bye

Look who’s in first place after a month!  Shanahan has always had a decent team, always hangs around 8-8…But can never do better or worse, do you really believe this is a major playoff threat?  We don’t…

(NR) 14. San Fransisco 49ers  3 – 1   next vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 The comeback against the Eagles is the kind of game that makes a season.  Can they continue playing the way they have and still win?  We are betting not.

(8) 15. New York Jets  2 – 2   next at new England Patriots

 The Jets’ offense was abysmal against the Ravens.  They should have an easier time against a weak Patriots defense, but can an over rated defense keep up with the Brady and Welker show?  Look for the mismatches, maybe an Ochocinco kind of weekend?

( ) left of rankings indicates previous weeks rankings

( ) next to teams indicates first place votes

UFB Power Rankers are:

Frank Hyun of Patriots Review

Ronnie Kohrt of Ronnie K’s Blog

David Calagis of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Mr. Kangaroo of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Brandon Clark of Titan Sized

Steven Lourie of Football Fan Spot

Mr. C.J. Sports of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Adam Hughes of Naptown’s Finest

Walter Cherepinsky of Walter Football.com

Nolan Vasan of NFL Draft Geek

Ryan Mc Crystal of Draft Ace