16. RLB Ryan Kerrigan A-

I had Blaine Gabbert 10^th to Washington and Ryan Kerrigan 16^th to Jacksonville. I got the right players, but not the right teams. I’ll still count that as a win. I had a high grade on Kerrigan and he’s going to work his ass off both on and off the field and I really doubt he busts, but I’m not totally comfortable with him in a 3-4. It’s not as if he didn’t fill a major need, however. Other than Brian Orakpo, no one had more than 2.5 sacks for them last year. That’s pretty bad.

41. NT Jarvis Jenkins C

Jarvis Jenkins fills a need, but it would be very hard for them not to fill a need with this position. They needed almost everything coming into this draft. I think Jenkins was a reach at this point.

79. WR Leonard Hankerson A

Excellent pick. Hankerson fills a major need for them, even compared to their other needs and I think he was a steal by at least a round. I had a borderline first round grade on him. This kid is going to be great and an impact player from the get go.

105. RB Roy Helu C-

Of all their needs, I don’t think running back was a major one. Ryan Torain and Keiland Williams are decent players and it’s not like the running back position is an extremely important position anymore. Helu was also a reach at this point.

146. CB Dejon Homes D

Of all their needs, cornerback was a pretty minor one and I didn’t have Homes in my top 300 so this is a pretty big reach by my book.

155. WR Niles Paul B

Another wide receiver? Well they do need some more depth at the position and with all of their trade downs they had the necessary picks to make a pick like this and Paul fit the range, but they could have done better things with this pick. They needed another defensive lineman, a quarterback, and some offensive line help before they needed a 2^nd wide receiver.

177. RB Evan Royster F

Another running back? I wasn’t thrilled with them taking one the first time and I don’t like this decision either. Royster is an even bigger reach than Helu was at 105.

178. WR Aldrick Robinson C-

A third receiver? What? At least Robinson fits the range somewhat and they did need some depth, but I’m not really a fan of this decision.

213. CB Brandyn Thompson C-

Another cornerback wasn’t really needed and Thompson was a reach at this point as I had him outside my top 300.

217. G Maurice Hurt A-

Finally some offensive line help. Hurt is a minor reach, but they really needed the depth and this is the late rounds.

224. RLB Markus White C

Another rush linebacker? I guess you can never have enough pass rushers, but they did have other needs and White was a bit of a reach at this point.

253. NT Chris Neild A

Neild filled a major need of theirs on the defensive line. Jenkins could play nose tackle as their 2^nd round pick, but he could also move to end if need be, another need of theirs.

Overall:

I like how they were able to trade down so many times and end up with 12 picks, especially trading down in the first round when they weren’t sold on Blaine Gabbert (I don’t blame them). However, how do you have 12 picks and not address the quarterback position at all. Quarterback was their biggest need heading in. I know this was a weak quarterback class, but they didn’t even bring in a developmental quarterback. Rex Grossman is not the long term solution and there’s no guarantee they can get an elite quarterback next year. The Redskins plan on using John Beck as their starter next year…so actually they might be guaranteed to can get an elite quarterback next year. They also had a good amount of picks that were either reaches and/or didn’t fill major needs.

Grade: C-

 

Bartell missed essentially the entire 2011 season with a broken neck, but he’s been medically cleared by both the Rams’ and the Raiders’ doctors. They Rams just cut him because of his salary and because they intended to go after Cortland Finnegan as their #1 cornerback. However, Bartell had a solid season in 2010 as St. Louis’ #1 cornerback, allowing a 52.1% completion percentage, 5.6 YPA, 2 touchdowns, no picks, and 7 penalties, ranking as ProFootballFocus’ #37 cornerback in the 2010 season. This was a nice, cheap signing for the Raiders (3 million over 1 year) and the Raiders desperately needed cornerback help as they were slated to start a 2011 3^rd and 4^th rounder at cornerback in 2012. They didn’t have a lot of cap space or draft picks so they almost had to make a move like this.

Grade: A 

 

 

In February of 2010, the Saints were on top of the world as Super Bowl Champions. However, like every reigning Super Bowl Champion before them since the 2003 New England Patriots, the Saints failed to win a playoff game, losing in embarrassing fashion to the Seattle Seahawks, a team that somehow qualified for the playoffs at 7-9, the first team with a losing record ever to make the playoffs. The Saints reloaded in the offseason and quietly had one of the few best offseasons in the league and appear poised for another run at the title.

The most important part of their strong offseason was shoring up the defensive line. Alex Brown at left end and Remi Ayodele at defensive tackle were major weaknesses for this team on the defensive line last year. They only managed 33 sacks last season and allowing a whopping 41 points to the Seahawks in their first round playoff loss.

Replacing Brown at left end, the Saints have 1^st round pick Cameron Jordan, the 24^th overall pick in April. Jordan will be hurt by the lockout, but he’ll still be a big upgrade. He was wildly considered a top 15 pick who somehow fell to the Saints at 24. Meanwhile, the Saints signed Aubrayo Franklin to play inside next to Sedrick Ellis. Franklin is not a great pass rusher, but he’s a beast against the run when he’s motivated. The Saints were able to get him for just a one year deal so he’ll once again be motivated in his 3^rd straight contract year. He compliments Ellis, a strong pass rusher, well.

At right end, the Saints are counting on a bounce back year from Will Smith. Smith, after 13 sacks in 2009, inexplicably dropped to 5.5 sacks in 2010. He still managed 35 quarterback pressures, which shows he still has it in him. Having Cameron Jordan opposite him should help free him up to get after the quarterback more.

With Smith having a down year, defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis led the team with 6 sacks. He should have a similar total again in 2011, all while providing excellent play against the run. He’s really blossomed into one of the top 4-3 under tackles in the league. He can only play better with Aubrayo Franklin drawing attention next to him. Add in veteran backup Shaun Rogers, still a talented run stuffer, at defensive tackle, and what was once a weakness of this team is now a strength.

At linebacker, middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma is once again an above average linebacker. However, they’ve lacked consistency on the outside for years. On the strong side, talented 3^rd round rookie Martez Wilson will compete with JoLonn Dunbar, who has impressed in limited action in his career, for the starting job. That position should be better off than it is normally. On the weak side, however, Jonathan Casillas, an inexperienced linebacker coming off of major surgery is expected to win the job, but only by default. His competition, incumbent Scott Shanle, might have been the worst starting linebacker in the league last season. 

At cornerback, Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter will start. Greer had a very strong 2009, but had a down year in 2010. Like Will Smith, this decline is pretty inexplicable and the Saints are obviously hoping he reverts to his 2009 form in 2011. Porter, meanwhile, was their best cornerback in 2010. He might miss the opener after offseason knee surgery, though they’re expecting to have him back by then. If Porter misses anytime, 2010 1^st round pick Patrick Robinson will start. Robinson was a reach in the 1^st and didn’t fill an obvious need, but he played decent as a nickelback in 2010.

At free safety, another former first round pick, Malcolm Jenkins, plays very well. He was really missed in their loss to Seattle last year. Had he played, they could have easily won. Roman Harper is once again the strong safety. He struggles in pass coverage and was a big part of the reason why they lost to the Seahawks, but he’s a beast against the run and needed to be retained this offseason. They did, however, overpay, but that was the only player they overpaid this offseason.

Resigning Roman Harper was one of their main priorities for this offseason and though they did overpay for him, they didn’t overpay to tend to their other priorities, which they did very nicely. They needed to fix the defensive line, which I’ve already mentioned, and they also needed to add talent at linebacker, which they did by drafting Martez Wilson, once a fringe first round prospect, in the 3^rd.

 

They also needed to fix up their running game and their offensive line. At center, Jonathan Goodwin, a decent, but declining player, left as a free agent, but they signed Olin Kreutz, an upgrade, in the offseason. Matt Tennant, a 2010 5^th round pick, is the future at the position, but they obviously weren’t comfortable starting him at center just yet.

They resigned left tackle Jermon Bushrod as well. Bushrod is not a great left tackle or anything, but he’s decent and has familiarity with Drew Brees, a huge plus in this lockout shortened offseason. The Saints didn’t feel comfortable starting 2010 2^nd round pick Charles Brown at left tackle just yet, so they resigned Bushrod. Brown could see some action on the right side this season because they cut Jon “Stinkbomb” Stinchcomb, a terrible player, in the offseason. Zach Strief, a career backup, is currently listed as the starter. However, the long term plan is for Brown to be their left tackle.

At guard, the Saints have easily the best duo of guards in the league. Jahri Evans got a big payday last offseason and was worth every penny of it. Carl Nicks, meanwhile, will get a big payday next offseason and he too will be worth every penny of it. Those two combine with Olin Kreutz to form a very formibidle interior line and if Bushrod can play solid once again and Charles Brown can step in for Strief and play well, or Strief surprises, they have a very, very good line.

A strong interior line will only help their running game, another priority of this offseason. I guess you could also say getting rid of Reggie Bush and his ridiculous cap number for 2011 was also a priority. They did that, sending Bush to Miami for a late pick and a reserve safety. Bush will be replaced as a speed/pass catching back by Darren Sproles, another player they might have overpaid for a bit, but not by much.

Easily their biggest addition at running back was Mark Ingram. Ingram was the top back in the 2011 class and fell to 28 because of injury concerns. He has top 15 talent when healthy and he appears to be very healthy at this point. He’ll stabilize a running game that suffered so many injuries in 2010 that Julius Jones was their leading rusher in the Seattle loss. Ingram figures to be the #1 back, while injury prone Pierre Thomas will be their #2.

Chris Ivory, who showed himself to be a decent player as an undrafted rookie, could see time again if there are injuries. Sporles will come in on 3^rd downs and 2^nd and longs. Basically, the Saints have 4 solid running backs so they shouldn’t blow through all their depth once again. Sean Payton loves mixing things up with his running backs so all 4 could have an impact this season.

At stronger running game will only help Drew Brees, who had to throw 144 more times in 2010 than in 2009 because of their lack of running game. The Saints are a pass first team, but won in 2009 because they had offensive balance, something they’ll have once again. Brees will also be helped by his own health. Brees played through a bad knee last year, an explanation for his career high 22 interceptions. Another explanation was his lack of running game, but both are problems that have been solved this season.

At wide receiver, the Saints go 3 strong with Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, and Lance Moore. All 3 have had injury problems in the past. Colston had yet another knee operation this offseason and is still not practicing, while Meachem struggled through leg injuries in 2010 and recently hurt his back in a preseason game. Moore, meanwhile, was very ineffective in 2009 with injury problems, but he is the healthiest of the bunch now. He could be an interesting fantasy sleeper for people who care about that.

In addition to his 3 receivers, Brees will have Jimmy Graham to work with. Graham, a 2010 3^rd round pick, impressed in limited action down the stretch last season. In the 2^nd half of last season, Graham caught 26 passes for 307 yards and 5 touchdowns despite not even being the starter. The mediocre Jeremy Shockey is gone and the starting job is all Graham’s. David Thomas, meanwhile, will continue to see a lot of the field as a blocker in 2 tight end sets.

The Saints had a down year in 2010, but figure to be better in 2011. Drew Brees is healthy. The running game is much more stable. They fixed both the offensive and defensive lines, as well. They showed last season that they have no fear going into Atlanta and winning, a very tough thing to do over the past 3 seasons. I think they leapfrog Altanta for the division again and grab one of the NFC’s 2 first round byes. They have as much as talent as and more continuity than the Philadelphia Eagles.

Quarterback: A

Running backs: B-

Offensive line: B

Receiving corps: B+

Run defense: B-

Pass rush: B-

Pass coverage: B

Coaching: A-

Projection: 13-3 1^st in NFC South

 

 

 

Outside Linebacker/Middle Linebacker 

Missouri

6-1 239

40 time: 4.57

Draft board overall prospect rank: #11

Draft board outside linebacker rank: #1

Overall rating: 88*

 3/1/10: A very good day for him, shaving about .1 second off of his projected 40 time with a 4.57, and also recording a 40 inch vertical leap and 34 reps on the bench press.

1/30/10: If there were a co-MVP, it would be Weatherspoon. He played middle linebacker for most of the game and that was where he indicated in an interview that he has best fit, but he really can play any 4-3 linebacker position, in addition to 3-4 middle linebacker, because hustle and vocal leadership don’t necessarily have a position and those are his signature traits. His coaching staff was raving ability his leadership ability all week and his hustle showed through on the field. On one play, Weatherspoon, a 241 pound linebacker, ran step for step with Mississippi’s Dexter McCluster, a 5-8 165 running back/wide receiver who is projected to run a 40 in the 4.3s, and trapped him in the corner of the end zone and broke up and almost intercepted the pass. He also had a late interception. His efforts were a huge part of the North’s front 7 domination and I think he has solidified himself as a 1st round prospect. 

1/23/10: 3 very solid years during his time at Missouri with 376 tackles, 12 sacks, and 4 picks in his last 3 years. His a very smart player on defense and a good leader on what was not supposed to be a good Missouri defense this year. He doesn’t play the most important position which will keep him out of the top 20, where he deserves to go, but he’s a solid athlete with good fundamentals and instincts, and can play both 4-3 outside linebacker spots, plus some 3-4 middle linebacker, so the versatility is there as well. He could be one of the best linebackers in the league in the near future.

            8/24/09: Sean Weatherspoon isn’t the biggest guy out there at 235 pounds and, while he has good speed, he’s not the fastest. He’s not the most athletic, but he’s one of the smartest guys in college football. He has great instincts and knack for the game. He has 3 years of starting experience on the Division I level in the Big 12, which is great experience. He is always around the football and really fills up the stat sheet all around. Last season, he had 126 tackles, 16 for loss, 4.5 sacks, and 3 picks for an underrated Missouri defensive squad. He has rush the passer and drop back into coverage. His lack of size is really only a problem in man on man matchups with bigger tight ends, whether in blocking or in pass coverage. He hits like someone 15 pounds heavier and has great tackling fundamentals because of his tremendous amount of starting experience. He has a lot of scheme versatility and can play 3-4 middle linebacker, 4-3 outside linebacker, and 4-3 middle linebacker. He’s a great vocal leader on the football field. His low 4.5 40 at 235 pounds isn’t going to blow anyone away, but he has good chase speed, closes gaps quickly, and can be considered a sideline to sideline playmaker. He isn’t great at getting around blocks and relies mostly on his speed and IQ to get around blockers. His initial burst is not as strong as you would like it to be and is only an average run stopper because of that. He’s not a tremendous natural athlete so his upside is not that high, but can contribute to a football team right away at linebacker. He should be a rookie of the year candidate in his first season in the NFL. He should be a strong starter for very many years in the NFL though. Overall, there are very few flaws in his game and should be a 1^stround pick in 2010.

NFL Comparison: Jon Beason

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

 

 

What’s a spread?

A spread will look something like this 49ers -7 or something like this 49ers -7 at Rams or something like this Rams + 7 or something like this 49ers at Rams +7. Those all mean the same thing. You take the 49ers score at the end of the game, subtract 7, and if it’s more than the Rams score, 49ers -7 win. If it’s lower, Rams +7 win. This is Vegas’ way to actually make sports betting challenging. It’s a lot tougher to pick the 49ers to win by a touchdown than to simply pick the 49ers to win outright.

What’s a unit?

A unit is simply an amount. This amount can really be anything, but here we use $100 just to make it easier. If we bet 2 units and win, we win $200. If we bet 2 units and lose, we lost $220 dollars.

Why $220?

Most sports books take 10%. This is how they make money. They wouldn’t make any money if they didn’t. With any reasonable luck, the population could just flip a coin and win 50% of the time and Vegas’ winnings and loses would cancel out. This way, they essentially, with any luck, make 10% of the total amount bet over time and get to drive fancy rich people cars.

What does it mean to see something like +13%?

This is normally next to my earnings. An earnings amount of $1000 doesn’t mean much if you had to have bet 1000 units ($110,000 with the 10%) to make it. In that case, the $1000 is about 9% of 110,000, your total bet, so you have earnings of 9%. This way it translates. People who want to bet $1000 know that if they had followed our picks blindly, they would have won about $90 with earnings of +9%. It basically just puts our earnings into context.

Isn’t sports betting illegal?

Yes. I do not sports bet. I do this for fun, to see how much money I would make if I did sports bet and to put my picks to the test. I don’t even have the money to sports bet. This website in no way promotes or encourages illegal sports betting. 

 

 

Steve Smith had a career revitalizing year in 2011 and he teamed with Cam Newton for 79 catches for 1394 yards and 7 touchdowns. He ranked 5^th in the league in receiving and proved once again he was one of the league’s premier receivers, even at age 32. He was a free agent after the 2012 season and this extension will add 3 more years onto his existing deal.

However, this deal is absolutely ridiculous. It’s worth 18 million guaranteed from 2013-2015 and up to 36 million max. Steve Smith will be 34-36 years old in that stretch. You don’t guarantee a 34-36 year old wide receiver 18 million dollars, especially one as reliant on speed as Smith. Speed is normally the first thing to go on a receiver. Smith could be a shell of his former self in 2 years or less and he wouldn’t even be halfway through his extension by then.

It’s ridiculous that Steve Smith got more in guaranteed money over 3 years than Reggie Wayne got in total money over 3 years, even though Wayne doesn’t turn 34 until November of the first year of his extension and Smith turns 34 in May of the first year of his extension. And Wayne is much less reliant on speed than Smith and much more consistent. Smith is just a year removed from a 45 catch for 554 yards and 2 touchdowns season. I know Jimmy Clausen was throwing him the ball, but Wayne almost doubled those stats with Curtis Painter throwing him the ball this season. On top of that, Wayne hasn’t missed a game since his rookie season. In that same time period, Smith has missed 21.

Another contract comparison for Steve Smith is Santana Moss. Moss is not as big of a name as Smith, but like Smith, he’s very reliant on speed and he had similar career numbers with similar mediocre quarterbacking when he signed a 13.5 million dollar deal over 3 years last offseason. Smith has 699 catches for 10278 yards and 59 touchdowns in 11 seasons. Moss had 593 catches for 8558 yards and 52 touchdowns in 10 seasons and signed the contract for ages 32-34, as opposed to 34-36 for Smith. For comparison’s sake, Wayne has 862 catches for 11708 yards and 73 touchdowns in 11 seasons

And the kicker, Moss could be cut this offseason. Moss’ abilities greatly declined last season and he also battled through injuries. A similar thing could happen to Smith any year now, but he’ll be guaranteed way too much money for the Panthers to be able to cut him loose without suffering a huge cap hit. For a team building for the future (and doing so well up to this point), this was a ridiculously stupid move.

Let’s take a look at the 11 receivers who rank in the top 20 all time in receiving yards who have played in the last 10 years (since 2002) to see where their career started to drop off. Smith currently ranks 32^nd and is 1626 yards outside of the top 20 so it’s reasonable to expect him to be on this list someday, but not too deep into the list.

Jerry Rice (Last 1000 yard season at age 40, 93 catches for 1298 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 40, last played at age 42)

Terrell Owens (Last 1000 yard season at age 35, 127 catches for 1812 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 35, last played at age 37)

Isaac Bruce (Last 1000 yard season at age 34, 137 catches for 1832 yards and 11 touchdowns in 3 seasons after age 34, last played at age 37)

Tim Brown (Last 1000 yard season at age 35, 157 catches for 1697 yards and 5 touchdowns in 3 seasons after age 35, last played at age 38)

Randy Moss (Last 1000 yard season at age 32, 28 catches for 393 yards and 5 touchdowns in 1 season after age 32, last played at age 33, trying to make a comeback this season)

Marvin Harrison (Last 1000 yard season at age 34, 80 catches for 883 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 34, last played at age 36)

Cris Carter (Last 1000 yard season at age 35, 81 catches for 935 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 35, last played at age 37)

Torry Holt (Last season 1000 yard season at age 31, 115 catches for 1518 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 31, last played at age 33)

Jimmy Smith (Last 1000 yard season at age 36, last played at age 36)

Hines Ward (Last 1000 yard season at age 33, 105 catches for 1136 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 33, last played at age 35)

Derrick Mason (Last 1000 yard season at age 35, 80 catches for 972 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 35, last played at age 37)

Of the 11, 9 had a 1000 yard season at age 33 or older, 8 had a 1000 yard season at age 34 or older 6 had a 1000 yard season at age 35 or older, 2 had a 1000 yard season at age 36 or older, and only Jerry Rice had a 1000 yard season after age 37. The average age of a final 1000 yard season is 34.5.

In 21 total combined seasons after their last 1000 yard season, they combined for 1003 catches (47.8 per season) for 12476 yards (594.1 per season) and 70 touchdowns (3.3 per season).

Of the 11, 9 played at age 34 or older, 8 played at age 36 or older, 6 played at age 37 or older, 2 played at age 38 or older, and only Jerry Rice played after age 38. The average age of a final season is 36.5

The point, even great receivers don’t play well into their mid 30s. Even the average top 20 receiver has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. And as far as top 20 receivers go, Steve Smith is probably below average. It’s reasonable to expect him to have one good season (1000 yards) at age 34, in 2013, the first year of his extension, and then 2 mediocre seasons at age 35 and 36 before being done playing at the end of his contract. That’s not worth 18 million guaranteed at all. 

The Panthers would have been much better off letting Smith play out his contract. They’d have almost definitely been able to resign him for much cheaper next offseason. No one else would be willing to pay him this much and they probably would have been able to sign him on a Wayne-like deal (3 years, 17.5 million, 8.5 million guaranteed), which would have been much more reasonable.

Grade: F

 

 

Updated: 4/17/10 

QB RB WR TE OT G C NT DT 3-4 DE DE RLB OLB MLB CB S K P

100 Once in a decade prospect 

95-99 Elite talent 

90-95 Solid top 10 pick 

85-90 Solid first round pick 

80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 

75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 

70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 

65-70 3rd-4th round pick 

60-65 4th-5th round pick 

55-60 5th round pick 

50-55 6th round pick 

45-50 7th round pick 

40-45 Undrafted, invite to training camp 

30-40 Career practice squader 

20-30 No NFL future 

0-20 No football future 

 

1. Jermaine Gresham (Oklahoma State) 86

2/27/10: After his 4.76 40, questions about the health of his knee have resurfaced. That’s the last thing Gresham wants to happen at this point. 4.76 isn’t awful, but he was expected to run at least .1 to .15 seconds faster so this is a bit concerning.

Despite being injured all season, he’s still an elite tight end at the next level. Assuming his knee holds up strong through the combine and in team workouts, he’s a lock to be the first tight end off the board and a first round pick. He’s big, 6-6 260, and fast mid 4.6 40, and has amazingly soft hands. He’s not afraid to go over the middle and he’d be a welcome target for any quarterback in the league. He put together one of the greatest statistical seasons ever by a tight end in 2008 with 66 catches for 950 yards and 14 touchdowns and would have been the first tight end off the board in 2008 had he declared.

2. Rob Gronkowski (Arizona) 80

3/27/10: There were rumors that, after back surgery that caused him to miss all of last season, he was still not healthy. I think he proved that wrong because, simply put, you can’t run a 4.65 at 6-6 258 with a bad back. The injury, and the rust that comes along with not playing a whole year because of injury, are still issues, but this guy could have been a first rounder if he had a good year this year and there’s no doubting he could be a steal for a team in the 2^nd round. I think he’s clearly the 2nd best tight end in this draft class, at least in my mind, because of Dennis Pitta’s lack of elite athleticism and upside and Aaron Hernandez’s small frame and inability to run block.

Surprisingly enough, the top two tight ends in this draft class didn’t play all season. Gronkowski has been amazing statistically in his career, but he hasn’t given scouts much of a statistical sample. He wasn’t a full time tight end as a freshman, he missed 3 games with mono as a sophomore, and back surgery cost him his entire junior season. However, what I do like about his state that is good going forward if his career 16 YPC, meaning he was extremely athletic and tough to bring down in the open field because its very unlike a quarterback is repeatedly throwing to a tight end 16 yards down field. Also 16 of his 75 catches in his short career were for touchdowns showing once again his physical dominance. Good ability in the open field and end zone dominance are a very good combination for a young tight end. He’s a big moving target at 6-6 270 and can run a 4.7 40 assuming his back is fully healed. He has football and sports in general in his blood. And he’s still 20 so his upside is huge. He would have been the top tight end in 2011 had he returned to school and been healthy so I’m a bit puzzled as to why he didn’t. This year he’s looking at anywhere from 2^nd to 4^th tight end off the board depending on how scouts see him bounce back from injury in workouts. That would mean 2^nd or 3^rd round range for him.

3. Dennis Pitta (BYU) 77

2/27/10: Not necessarily known as an elite as rather a guy with good hands, Pitta benched 225 pounds 27 times, 2nd most among tight ends, and ran a 4.63 40.

Over an entire career, its tough to find a tight end who was more productive than Pitta. After he came back from his Mormon mission in 2007, Pitta looked like a man among boys catching 204 passes for 2726 yards and 19 touchdowns in three years. The only thing, he practically was a man among boys. Because his mission lasted two years, Pitta is currently 24 years old and does not have a huge upside. He’s probably better than half of the starting tight ends in the league right now with his good agility and soft hands, but scouts don’t really think he’s going to get much better than that. He’d be an ideal fit for a west coast offense and can help a team out right away, but his lack of upside, along with Rob Gronkowski surprisingly declaring for the NFL draft, he could slip to the 3^rd round.

4. Aaron Hernandez (Florida) 73                         

2/25/10: There aren’t a ton of tight ends under 6-3. There are some, Dustin Keller at 6-2, but after Hernandez measured in at 6-2 with short 32 ¼ inch arms, his value becomes more limited. He’s a great athlete and can run and catch well, but he can’t do much else. He’s not much of a blocker and he hasn’t run a lot of pro style routes.

If he measures out at 6-3 at the combine, teams could look at him as the 2nd best tight end in this draft class. If he measures out at 6-1 or 6-2, very few teams will even consider him as a tight end at all because of his height. Besides his height, he’s an amazing athletic freak who can run a mid 4.5 40 at 250 pounds. He’s extremely tough to defend and he was one of the most productive tight ends in college football this year despite being only 20 years old.

5. Ed Dickson (Oregon) 73

He’s another tight end with great measurables, 6-4 245 with a mid 4.6 40, but he hasn’t been as productive in his career as some of the guys above him on this list. He needs to work on his route running and his run blocking but he has the upside to be a starting tight end in the league for a long time so he should go in the 3^rdround, or 4^th round at worst. His ability in the open field is very good for a tight end.

6. Andrew Quarless (Penn State) 66

He is a former #1 recruit for Penn State and has amazing athleticism and great measurables, 6-5 260 high 4.6 40, so he has the potential to be a 1^st round pick tight end. However, his career at Penn State was not exactly ideal, in fact quite the opposite. Arrests, probation, suspension, you name it, he had issues with it. He finally stayed out of trouble and on the field for one season, his senior season, and was able to put together a decent season with 41 catches for 536 yards and 3 touchdowns, but it may have been a case of too little too late. He’s looking at the 5^th round range, but I think he’s a 4^th round prospect because of his upside if he continues to improve his game and stay out of trouble.

7. Garrett Graham (Wisconsin) 63

2/25/10: He’s still on the small side but weighing in at 243 is a lot better than the 234 he weighed in at the combine.

1/30/10: He had a few nice catches, including a touchdown that got wiped away by a penalty, but overall it was a bad week for him. First he weighed in at 234 pounds and then showed himself to be small on the field by not being able to block anything. He is the worst run blocker of any tight end that played in this game and I’m not sure he has a position at the next level. 

1/26/10: Very skinny for his position. 

At 6-4 238 its clear he needs to bulk up a little before he can be a legitimate NFL tight end, but he has very refined fundamentals for his size. He would be a perfect fit, assuming he bulks up, to be the receiving tight end in a west coast offense. He reminds me a lot of Travis Beckum, the former Wisconsin tight end who was drafted in the late 3^rd round last year despite being undersized at 6-3 239. Graham could be looking at the same range if not a little lower because he didn’t quite as productive of a year as Beckum, mostly because he played in Beckum’s shadow most of the time.

 

8. Tony Moeacki (Iowa) 58

Showed occasional flashes of brilliance when fully healthy, for instance in the Orange Bowl this year when he had 84 yards and a brilliant 53 reception that very few tight ends can make. Unfortunately, that rarely happened because of injuries. In his career, he only managed 953 yards on 76 catches for 11 touchdowns because of numerous injuries. You name it, he hurt it, he probably hurt things you didn’t even know were body parts. He could be snagged late as a flier tight end prospect and I think he deserves 5^th round recognition as he could be a starting caliber tight end if he stays healthy, but his injury plagued past is a major red flag. Even this year, by far his best season of his career, he only had 30 catches for 387 yards and 4 scores because he missed 3 games.

9. Mike Homanawanui (Illinois) 57

1/26/10: He’s being looked at as a big blocker so weighing in at 267 pounds helps his case to get drafted. So do his long arms and hands. 

A very big physical blocker who could be looked at in the 5th round by teams needing run blocking tight ends. 

10. Clay Harbor (Missouri State) 56

A small school tight end who I hadn’t heard of until the Combine, but he looked like a natural athlete in the measurings at the combine and he looked like an NFL caliber tight end with reliable hands in the drills. Level of competition is an issue, but he has 40 or more catches in each of the last 3 seasons and 59 catches for 729 yards and 4 touchdowns this year. Size was an issue for him, but he bulked up for the Combine and still had a good time in the 40 yard dash.

11 Colin Peek (Alabama) 56

3/15/10: He’s a great blocker, but weighing in at just 252 pounds hurts and so does running a 4.93 40. He also only benched 19 reps of 225. He needed a good Pro Day to keep his status as the top blocking tight end in the class, with guys like Mike Hoomanawanui and Nate Byham impressing at the Senior Bowl and Combine. Peek did not do that and he could slip as a result. That slip could be pretty significant given his position as a run blocking tight end. That could be a 2 round slip.

If you look at his stat sheet you get confused as to why he’s an NFL prospect. In his career he had 51 catches for 561 yards and 4 touchdowns. However, he may be the best pure run blocking tight end in college football at the moment and that could get him drafted in the 4^th or 5^th round. He’s big and overpowering at 6-6 255 and has great technique. His receiving abilities, though limited, are extra. If you want to get a look at his run blocking abilities, he will be at the Senior Bowl next week.

12. Anthony McCoy (USC) 55

Mostly physical upside at this point, but despite his size he was an inconsistent blocker last year and he didn’t have a ton of catches last year, 22. However, he did play in a pro style offense and get good YAC. He averaged 20.8 YPC last year and that’s always a good sign going forward. The upside is there.

13. Nate Byham (Pittsburgh) 55

2/27/10: Yesterday, Byham impressed by weighing it at 268 pounds and making him the best run blocking tight end in my eyes, but today he ran like an offensive lineman with a 40 time of 4.97. That’s not good.

2/26/10: If Byham was going to get drafted, it would be as a blocker. Measuring in at 268 certainly helps his cause to be viewed as one of the best run blocking tight ends in this draft class.

One of the elite run blocking tight ends in this class, Byham only had 47 career catches, but he has good size. His route running, hands, and speed could all be a lot better, but he has a role for him in the NFL.

14. Jimmy Graham (Miami) 54

A basketball player playing football, but then again so is Antonio Gates. Graham was a forward on the Miami basketball team and only had one year on the Miami football team. He’s an athlete, but didn’t show a ton on the field.

15. Scott Sicko (New Hampshire) 52

3/15/10: I love him as a late round sleeper out of small school New Hampshire, but he had some issues with size in the past, being about 240 at New Hampshire. He was 251 at his Pro Day (plenty big) and still ran a 4.53 with a 35 inch vertical and looked comfortable in the drills playing with that weight. 

Undersized, but with more teams switching to schemes that use smaller pass catching tight ends, Sicko should have a role an some upside in the NFL at the next level. He has 3 straight years of 50 catches or more and 2014 career yards and 22 career touchdowns, but he didn’t have a ton of tough competition. He’s, at the very least, interesting. For my exclusive interview with Scott Sicko, click here.

16. Nathan Overbay (Eastern Washington) 48

17. Dennis Morris (Louisiana Tech) 44

18. Cody Slate (Marshall) 44

19. Jeron Mastrud (Kansas State) 43

20. Caz Piurowski (Florida State) 43

Updated 5/1/10

()=big board rank 

WR Danario Alexander (85)

MLB Micah Johnson (116)

OT Tony Washington (143)

MLB Reggie Carter (169)

G Joe Thomas (200)

K Leigh Tiffin (218)

MLB Boris Lee (219)

C Chris Hall (220)

C Kenny Alfred (247)

MLB Alex Joseph (250)

P Robert Malone (252)

RB LeMarcus Coker (255)

OT Dennis Landholt (256)

RB Andre Dixon (261)

OT Andrew Tyshovntsky (266)

S Nick Sandford (271)

G Matt McCracken (277)

3-4 DE/DT Swanson Miller (278)

DT Alan Michael-Cash (280)

G Reggie Stephens (287)

C Chris Fisher (288)

TE Cody Slate (293)

P Jeremy Boone (295)

K Aaron Pettrey (296)

 

By Ryan Glab 

Bears offense vs. Vikings defense

Last week against the worst run defense in the NFL, the Bears managed just 62 yards on 24 carries between Matt Forte and Chester Taylor, a 2.5 average. The most discouraging thing is that the Bears stayed committed to the run game and still couldn’t have success. This week the Bears face the Vikings’ No. 6 run defense and I’d be surprised if they ran the ball more than 12-15 times for anywhere between 35-45 yards. Of course, one broken play can skew those statistics, but that would be about average production for them. Mike Martz figures to dial up quite a few passing plays in this one, especially if the Bears are down early. Minnesota is slightly more susceptible to the pass, but by the slimmest of margins. The Vikings are mostly healthy on the defensive side of the ball and won’t be missing any key players. After having an unusually slow start to the season with just one sack in the team’s first seven games, defensive end Jared Allen registered two and a half sacks last week against Arizona and just might have gotten the jump-start he needed to return to Pro Bowl form. Allen is joined on the line by the familiar faces — and enormous wide bodies — of tackles Pat and Kevin Williams and end Ray Edwards. Of the team’s 12 sacks — which is the fourth-lowest mark in the league — the defensive line has eight of them, which means those guys are going to bring the heat. This game reminds me an awful lot of the New York Giants one in which the Giants recorded 10 sacks against the Bears, most of which came from just the front four. Offensive line coach Mike Tice knows the challenge his unit has in protecting Cutler against the Vikings’ defensive line and he said this week, “We’re going to find out if we’re man enough.” I don’t question the will or mental toughness of the offensive linemen, but I do have my reservations about their talent and physical toughness. Another thing to keep an eye on is that center Olin Kreutz missed practices this week, although he did participate on Friday, and he’s likely to play Sunday, but who knows how effective he’ll be. For the Bears to avoid getting Cutler concussed again, they need to get the ball out of his hands quickly and probably utilize Greg Olsen, Matt Forte, and Chester Taylor early and often. The Vikings have the No. 5 overall defense in the league and I see a lot of struggles for the Bears offense.

Advantage: Vikings

Bears defense vs. Vikings offense

If the Bears are going to beat their division rivals, the game has to be won on this side of the ball. The Bears are ranked No. 8 overall on defense, which is incredible if you think about it because that ranking is based on yards allowed and the defensive scheme they run normally yields a lot of yards. That’s reflected in their pass defense, which is allowing an average of 225.8 passing yards per game and is currently ranked 19th. What’s most impressive is the way the Bears have defended the run this season. The Bears began the season with a solid effort against the Lions which landed them in the top spot and they haven’t wavered much since, never falling out of the Top 6, if memory serves. They’re currently ranked No. 3 while allowing just 83.9 rushing yards per game. They’re also yielding just 3.5 yards per carry, third-best in the league. Here’s an ironic statistic: the Bears have the third-best run defense yet have also allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns in the league. They have the 19th-ranked pass defense, yet they have allowed a league-low five touchdown passes. How can we interpret that? Simple: the Cover 2 defense is working — for the most part — as it should. It prevents offenses from getting the big play down the field but it’s giving up big yards because it allows long drives due to shorter and intermediate routes. When an opponent gets closer to the end zone, the field shrinks and it’s harder to pass for a touchdown in a confined space. Meanwhile, opposing offensive coordinators don’t run as much on the Bears because they know they can move down the field with the pass. But when it comes to power football, the Bears get overrun in the red zone. Perhaps the one reason I most feel the Bears will struggle in this game is that Brett Favre is notorious for evading a pass rush — even with his decrepit body — and he also has long had success at picking apart zone coverage. The Bears are going to have to bring pressure with blitzes because I don’t think the front four will generate enough on their own. I think the safety blitz with Chris Harris has been an effective tool this season. The Bears will also get their toughest test of the season against the league’s top back in Adrian Peterson. Peterson has had plenty of success against the Bears in his career and is averaging over 100 yards per game. He also seems to have a nose for the end zone against them. I expect an inspired effort against Peterson and if the Bears do not have a broken play, I feel they can hold him under 100 yards. Still, Minnesota has the weapons to pick apart the Bears’ defense.

Advantage: Vikings

Special Teams

Devin Hester has had a great deal of success in his career against the Vikings both offensively and on special teams. Minnesota punter Chris Kluwe has made the mistake more than once of kicking to Hester, who has burned the Vikings for touchdowns. Rather than kick the ball out of bounds as most teams have done during the Hester reign, Kluwe tries to punt it high and deep which causes him to outkick his coverage. Assuming Kluwe hasn’t learned his lesson yet, I like Hester’s chances of having a nice day in the return game. The Bears pulled Danieal Manning off the kickoff return duties last week against the Bills and I’m still not sure why. My best guess is that after Buffalo sustained long drives against the Bears’ defense, Dave Toub preferred to put a fresh Johnny Knox in the game instead of a winded Manning. Knox had three returns for a 23-yard average with a long of 27 yards. I’m comfortable with both players back there. I’d prefer Manning’s straight up the field approach to Knox’s slower method of waiting for his blockers to set up. But Knox does have explosive speed and if he does get a crease, he could go all the way. Robbie Gould has struggled a bit this year, missing three field goals, although he did have one blocked. He also sent a kickoff out of bounds last week. Still, he’s an extremely reliable kicker on field goals and he’s had nine touchbacks on kickoffs, 10th-most in the league. Brad Maynard has had a rough season but he’s a weapon when attempting to pin opponents deep in their own territory. Hopefully the Bears don’t need him to kick from his own end zone this week because his lack of leg strength hurts their ability to flip field position.Vikings kicker Ryan Longwell has been a dependable kicker for a long time. He, too, is getting old and his leg strength is waning. He kicks in a dome and yet he has just one touchback this year. He’s made all eight of his field goals but only has a long of 41 yards, the shortest of any kicker in the league with as many attempts.
Advantage: Bears

Intangibles

The Vikings are one of the toughest teams in the league when playing in the friendly confines of Mall of America Field, but their recent struggles on the road have to be disconcerting for them. They’ve lost their last eight road games in a row, including the NFC Conference Championship game in New Orleans and the 36-30 overtime loss to the Bears in December. A turf team playing on grass has to at least be considered a factor in the losing streak. The Bears and Vikings have truly had a close and entertaining rivalry over the past decade. During Lovie Smith’s tenure alone, the teams have split their 12 battles. Four of the six years the series was split, 1-1. The Bears swept the Vikings in 2006 and the Vikings swept the Bears in 2007. The weather shouldn’t play a big factor in the game on Sunday. Temperature at kickoff calls for mid-40s with wind gusts up to 18 mph. That means the playbooks for both teams should be open and almost everything should be in the game plan. From a coaching perspective, both teams have had an outcry of public complaint. But even the most hard-headed Lovie Smith haters out there should be able to realize that the better of the two head coaches will be wearing blue and orange on Sunday. Smith has the respect of his players and if the Bears are to pull off a victory over the Vikings, it could be the cohesiveness of the locker room that makes the difference. Still, I’m not sure a bad head coach and a road losing streak of eight games will be enough to deter the Vikings in this one. They have better talent despite their 3-5 record and they’ll probably be playing with a bigger sense of urgency than the Bears will. The Vikings know that this is a do-or-die game for them. If they lose, they’ll be three games behind the co-division leaders, the Packers and Bears. They’ll have six losses on the season and they may have to run the table to make the playoffs. I expect a close game with careless turnovers from both quarterbacks. Peterson, who had 20 fumbles in the first three seasons of his career, has yet to fumble this season. That could change against the Bears’ opportunistic defense. However, unless the Vikings completely implode on Sunday, I don’t think the Bears have the offensive talent to match up with their Vikings’ counterparts.
Advantage: Vikings

Final Score: Minnesota 20, Chicago 17

http://www.bearsbeat.com/

32. Carolina Panthers 1-8

With the Bills winning, albeit by 2, this is now the worst team in the NFL. They really can’t do anything right. They can’t do diddlypoo offensively, they can’t make a first down, they can’t run the ball, they don’t try to run the ball, they can’t complete a pass. They suck. They can’t stop the run. Every time the other team gets the ball they go down and get points. They suck. And yes, I did just copy and paste Jim Mora’s old “diddlypoo” speech and change the tenses, but it fits.

31. Buffalo Bills 1-8

By beating the Lions, they assured they won’t go 0-16, but they better hope it didn’t kill their chances at Andrew Luck. If the Panthers pick before them, they could easily take Luck or more likely trade the pick to someone who wants Luck and then the Bills could be set back another few years.

30. Dallas Cowboys 2-7

Where was this all year? I knew Wade Phillips was bad, but was he really this bad?According to stories I’m hearing about his time in Dallas, it appears so. Reports are coming out that Jason Garrett is changing the culture in Dallas by doing things such as making sure players show up to team meetings on time. Why wasn’t this done before?!

Also, in a hilarious story, Jason Garrett is allegedly forcing Mike Jenkins to bring a notebook to film study for the first time this season. Maybe that’s why he commits all these pass interferences. He watches the tape of himself committing all these penalties and then forgets about it because he didn’t write it down in a notebook.

29. Detroit Lions 2-7

If the Lions bring back Matt Stafford this season, they’re stupid. He has no business being on the field after separating the same shoulder twice in a season. Shoulder problems are what sapped Chad Pennington’s arm strength and they can do the same to Stafford, who was drafted #1 for his arm strength. They need to get him fully healthy for next season and not risk bringing him back too soon.

28. Arizona Cardinals 3-6

Their quarterback situation might be the worst in the league, as they’re 31^st in the league in QB rating, but their defense might be even worse. In the past 2 weeks, they’ve allowed a career high yards to a 41-year-old Brett Favre and made Matt Hasselbeck look like he’s 28 again. They rank 27^th against the pass and 21^st against the run. How did this team win 3 games again? Ladies and gentlemen: The NFC West.

27. Cincinnati Bengals 2-7

Everything that went right for the Bengals last year has gone wrong this year, most importantly, while they were winning close games last year, they’re losing close games this year. Cedric Benson had a great year last year, but with the team not winning, Benson has become out of shape. He seems to have forgotten it’s his contract year. Their defense is a fraction of what it was last year and their amazing corners aren’t getting any help from a defensive line that only has 9 sacks in 9 games.

26. Denver Broncos 3-6

2 games after giving up 59 to the Raiders, the Broncos scored 49 against Kansas City. I don’t really have a problem with teams running up the score (unlike Todd Haley). If you want to play your starters in a blowout and risk injuries, be my guest. This is the NFL. There is no mercy rule. There shouldn’t be a mercy rule. Better yet, there should be a forfeit rule. If one team feels the other team is being “mean” to them and running up the score, they can go ahead and forfeit. 

25. San Francisco 49ers 3-6

Troy Smith has been impressive through 2 games, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves yet. He hasn’t yet proven to be the answer for a 49ers team that desperately needs it. However, what he has done is win 2 games for a 49ers team that desperately needed it.

They now sit at 3-6, 2 games back of the division, with 4 division games left. That’s 4 more games against crappy division opponents who they are already 1-1 against. This means that, after starting 1-6, the 49ers are still pretty alive and kicking in the division race. Ladies and gentleman: The NFC West.

24. Minnesota Vikings 3-6

Where did Jared Allen go? He cuts off his mullet for his wedding and only has 4.5 sacks through 9 games after 44.5 in the last 3 years. I guess this just goes to show, the football gods don’t like when you change your appearance for a woman and will turn you into a terrible football player. Well, that is, unless you’re Tom Brady.

23. St. Louis Rams 4-5

Sam Bradford is still 0 for his young career in road games, blowing a late lead to the 49ers on the road. However, he remains great at home, with a 4-1 record, 4-0 since the opener. Could the Rams not win a road game all season and still win the division? If they can beat Atlanta, Kansas City, and San Francisco at home, they could go to a playoffs as a 7 win team having not won a road game. Ladies and gentlemen: The NFC West (yes, I will repeat this throughout the Power Rankings)

22. Jacksonville Jaguars 5-4

The Jaguars lead the league in beating up on crappy teams and getting miracle wins against division opponents. They’ve beaten 2-7 Dallas, 3-6 Denver, 1-8 Buffalo, and then Indy on a 59 yard field goal at the end of regulation and Houston on a 50 yard Hail Mary at the end of the regulation. This not only makes them the worst 5-4 team in the league, but the most unpredictable. I am 1-8 picking their games against the spread this season.

21. Miami Dolphins 5-4

The Dolphins appear to have lost their two top quarterbacks (the hanging chads) Chad Pennington and Chad Henne for the season, thus eliminating themselves from the playoffs. For any Dolphins fans that don’t agree with me, just ask the Dolphins. They reportedly contacted the agents of Daunte Culpepper and JaMarcus Russell. Nothing says white flag like Culpepper and Russell.

20. Cleveland Browns 3-6

This is the best 3-6 team I’ve seen in a while. This season, they hung within a touchdown of Tampa Bay (6-3) Kansas City (5-4) Baltimore (6-3) and the Jets (6-3), beat New England (7-2) and New Orleans (6-3), beat the only sub .500 they played Cincinnati (2-7) and only lost by double digits twice to Atlanta (7-2) and Pittsburgh (6-3).

Hopefully for Browns fans, they have an easier schedule next season, and Colt McCoy, with a top receiver added through the draft, takes his game to another level and puts this team into playoff contention. More likely, they’ll draft a crappy defensive player, McCoy will get hurt week 1, and they’ll go 2-14, but you never know. Maybe the football gods will finally go easy on them (and the entire city of Cleveland) next year.

19. Kansas City Chiefs 5-4

Well, the Chiefs are finally playing like most people thought they would to start the season, needing overtime to beat the Bills, losing to the Raiders, and losing by 20 to the Broncos. I’ll give them credit though. I didn’t have them winning more than 5 games all season, but I don’t think there’s any denying it. This isn’t a good team. They can win in games where they can establish the run and make sure Matt Cassel has to do as little as possible, but if they have to play catch up, they’re dead.

18. Houston Texans 4-5

Another team the football gods seem to hate, last year they lost several games on failed goal line conversions or missed field goals. This year, after starting 2-0, they have fallen to 4-5 because of their tough schedule and couldn’t even win a game they should have against a bad Jacksonville team because a late Hail Mary fell into the hands of Mike Thomas after it was batted down by Houston corner Glover Quin.

17. Washington Redskins 4-5

This team isn’t as bad as they looked on Monday Night and I liked their resiliency and a lot of what I saw from their offense, or at least McNabb. His receivers once again didn’t help him out much as they were responsible for 2 of his 3 picks (desperation was responsible for the other one). However, that defense has problems. Their defensive front is terrible. They are on the whole an average team, despite what people are saying after their 31 point loss, but that defense does have problems.

Also, I wasn’t a fan of the McNabb deal until I found out only about 10 million of that was really guaranteed. In that case, I like the deal. Sure beats letting him walk a year after giving up a 2^nd rounder and a few mid round picks for him.

 

16. Seattle Seahawks 5-4

This team really doesn’t like playing close games. They either look great or terrible every other week. Week one, 25 point win over San Francisco. Week two, 17 point loss to Denver. Week 4, 17 point loss to St. Louis. Week 7, 12 point win over Arizona. Week 8, 30 point loss to Oakland. Week 9, 33 point loss to the Giants. Week 10, 18 point win over Arizona. How can a team this inconsistent be in first place? Ladies and gentlemen: The NFC West.

15. Oakland Raiders 5-4

They had a bye last week, but I want to comment on one thing. 15. Oakland Raiders 5-4. That just doesn’t look right. However, after the NFL’s middle class was terrible week 10 (Kansas City, Houston, Washington), the Raiders have moved to 15 in my Power Rankings. Huge game in Pittsburgh this week to prove they’re for real.

14. Chicago Bears 6-3

I still don’t believe they’ve fixed their problems coming out of the bye. They faced two teams with a combined 4-14 record and a combined 25 sacks. They can beat those types of teams. I don’t think they can beat Miami, who they face this week, or Green Bay in a rematch, or any playoff team. But, we’ll see. The Miami game will be telling, as will Philly week 12.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-3

The combined record of the teams they’ve beaten is 14-40 and the combined record of the teams they lost to is 19-8. One of these days, they’ll play a team that’s average and we’ll finally be able to judge how good they are. However, credit them for beating the teams they should have. They’ve got that much going for them. That and Josh Freeman’s 6 career comeback wins already. BEAST.

12 Tennessee Titans 5-4

They may have lost last week, but if they had been able to establish their running game, that game would have gone a lot differently. Randy Moss drew double teams, as he was supposed to. He’s the best decoy in the game. This allowed Chris Johnson to rush for 117 yards on 17 carries. The Titans lost, because their defense couldn’t stop anyone and they weren’t able to run as much as they’d like to. If they get a chance to do that this week against Washington, look out.

11. San Diego Chargers 4-5

Bye.

10. Baltimore Ravens 6-3

Last week, I brought up a stat about how often home teams win on Thursday Night Football (24-10). This doesn’t really seem fair, but I didn’t think much of it until Ray Lewis complained about it. Ray Lewis is a scary dude. Women want him, men want to be him, and animals want to learn how to talk so they can hang out with him (Old Spice FTW). It takes a lot to make him complain. Thursday games made him complain. Now I’m starting to think these aren’t a good idea. Then again, they do give people an excuse to get drunk on Thursdays, so maybe it is a good idea.

9. New York Jets 7-2

They won’t be moved up until they play like a team that should be moved up. In their last 5 games, they’ve beaten Minnesota by 9, needed PI to beat Denver by 4, gotten shutout by Green Bay, and needed overtime to beat Detroit and Cleveland. In those 5, Mark Sanchez is 103 for 195 (52.8%) for 1280 yards (6.6), 4 touchdowns, and 6 picks.

Once they stop playing like a mediocre team, I’ll stop treating them like a mediocre team. They need to get their act together for New England week 13, otherwise they’re getting their asses handed to them in Foxboro. Hell, they need to get it together this week. Houston better than any of the 4 teams they’ve beaten in their last 5.

8. New York Giants 6-3

They spent 1.6 billion dollars on a stadium, you’d think they’d make sure the lights would work. That might not have been as embarrassing as their play against Dallas though. They looked like they were playing in the dark all game, completely caught off guard. They had three turnovers and allowed 430 yards of offense plus a 101 yard pick six.

7. New Orleans Saints 6-3

Bye.

6. Green Bay Packers 6-3

Bye.

5. Philadelphia Eagles 6-3

Can you say statement game? The entire NFL is shitting their pants after watching that performance on Monday Night in Washington, including teams ranked higher than them on this list. I am a Patriots fan. I couldn’t get to sleep last night because I was imagining Vick tear apart our defense. If they can do that more than once, they’re better than any team in the NFL, with Vick, plus DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy. So much speed and big play ability.

I fully take back everything I said about how Kolb should start over Vick. This is not the Vick of old. The Vick of old wasn’t as good as Kolb. This Vick is the type of player you design in Madden with 99 arm strength, 99 speed, and 99 arm accuracy. I didn’t realize that in his first few starts because they were against bad or banged up defenses, but I’ve realized that now.

Vick was absolutely playing Madden out there. He killed the Redskins like he killed those dogs (or as DeSean Jackson put it, they were “like pitbulls, ready to get out of the cage). It didn’t look fair. I don’t know what the hell kind of steroids he used in jail or if he just spent all day getting jacked because he had nothing else to do, but this Vick is faster than pre-jail Vick, stronger than pre-jail Vick, and mostly notably, a better decision maker than pre-jail Vick.

I don’t know if he has just spent 2 years in jail just watching game film, or if Andy Reid is just a genius, or if he’s just taking it more seriously now, but he’s every bit the player he was supposed to be as the #1 overall pick in 2001. And that scares everyone in the league. Actually the sight of his name alone puts fear into me *cringes*.

4. Indianapolis Colts 6-3

Two remaining games against the Patriots and Chargers appear very tough for them. They also have Tennessee, Jacksonville, hell even Dallas and Oakland could be tough, and one loss to spare to have their 8 straight 12 win season. They might not be able to pull 12-4 out of their asses this year. They didn’t look good in a 6 point win over Cincinnati.

It helps that Peyton’s getting some of his receivers back though. He was down to Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon (who keeps dropping passes), Jacob Tamme (who keeps dropping passes), and Brandon James (an undrafted rookie running back), as his top 4 receivers last week. Austin Collie will be a welcome sight for Manning this week against New England.

3. Atlanta Falcons 7-2

I’ve said it before and that win over Baltimore just confirms it. If this team gets home field, they are probably the favorites to make the Super Bowl in the NFC. There isn’t anyone who can beat this team in Atlanta. Well, except maybe Michael Vick *cringes*.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers 6-3

Remember when this team was 3-1 with Big Ben coming back and looked like a shoe in for the Super Bowl. Now, they have multiple injuries on both the offensive and defensive lines. Their defense isn’t playing at 110% anymore, like they were to compensate for Big Ben’s absence. Their offense is still out of sync with Big Ben. And they are now 1-2 in their last 3 with tough games against Oakland (yes, Oakland), Baltimore, and the Jets in their near future.

1. New England Patriots 7-2

The Patriots are my AFC favorites. First of all, if they get home field, that’s a huge advantage. They’ve won their last 23 regular season at home. I know they lost to the Ravens in the playoffs at home last year, but everyone has a bad day and they avenged that loss earlier this season. Still 23-1 isn’t bad.

Second of all, they have Tom Brady. Peyton Manning is the better quarterback, but he can’t do what Brady does in big games. He doesn’t have Brady’s passion and will to win big games.

Third of all, it just makes sense. The Patriots are always at their best when they’re doubted. This year, coming into the season, this was all they heard. Tom Brady is more concerned with being a celebrity than a football player. Tom Brady’s wife cut off his balls. Tom Brady’s hair makes him look like a girl, or even Justin Bieber. Justin Bieber called Tom Brady out in a rap video. The Pats lost to the Ravens in the playoffs big time. The upstart Dolphins and the upstart Jets are better. Tom Brady is getting old. Randy Moss is becoming a diva again. The defense’s average age is 25. Even into week 2, when they lost to the Jets, people doubted them.

Their response, as it always is, fuck you guys, we’re winning the Super Bowl. That is unless they run into Michael Vick *cringes*. Hopefully someone figures out how to stop him between now and then.