Deal for Ravens:

Alright, everyone hands put your hands where I can see them, hands up. This poor action movie imitation is my way of showing that the Ravens just committed armed robbery. 30 teams’ fans right now are kicking themselves because there team wasn’t the one to pull this deal off.

Grade: A

Deal for Cardinals

Meanwhile Cardinals’ fans are probably hanging themselves. After 2 good years, that miserable franchise stench is coming back. They have lost Antrel Rolle and Kurt Warner already this offseason. They are probably going to lose Karlos Dansby and they might cut Adrian Wilson too and now they have lost Boldin. The truth is, though they could have gotten more value for their star receiver, they have the receiver depth to overcome this. Steve Breaston is more than capable of being a #2 and Early Doucet is a 2008 3rd round pick who showed good upside last year. He should be more than capable of replacing Breaston in the slot in Arizona’s 3 wide receiver offense. Still, though, not a happy day for Cardinals fans.

Grade: C+

 

QB Tom Brady UP

With Welker back in the lineup, the Patriots and Tom Brady looked to be in 2007 form week 2 against Atlanta. I’m not saying that he’ll throw 50 touchdowns, but having a healthy Welker in the lineup certainly improves his fantasy stock.

WR Wes Welker UP

Good to see him in there and healthy. In fact, if I didn’t see it myself, I wouldn’t have believed that this guy was ever in a freak injury accident week 17 last year. Leading the league in receptions last year despite missing 3 games with injury makes this guy a PPR god, and he’s pretty good in normal leagues too.

RB Fred Taylor UP

Fred Taylor looked great in the Patriots’ 2^nd preseason game with 11 carries for 54 yards and a score. He probably won’t be their starter, but look for them to use him often this year. That makes him someone to target late. He’s being overlooked in fantasy circles this year.

RB Laurence Maroney DOWN

Maroney didn’t play at all in his 2^nd preseason game. This is probably just Bill Belicheck trying to mess with fantasy football owners and Maroney will still be the lead guy this year, but it’s still not encouraging.

RB CJ Spiller UP

With Lynch and Jackson out, Spiller dominated with 10 carries for 54 yards and a score, looking like he was still in college and dominating ACC defenses. Lynch and Jackson will be back before week 1 presumably, so he’ll still give carries to them, but he has a chance in the preseason to prove himself and push for more work and if he keeps running like this, he’ll get it.

RB Julius Jones DOWN

Jones didn’t start the 2^nd preseason game, and looked horrible in the action he did get with 14 yards on 5 carries. He will have some fantasy value if he becomes the lead back there, but that doesn’t look likely at the moment.

RB Justin Forsett UP

Forsett started the 2^nd preseason game against the Packers, but didn’t use the opportunity to prove himself like he could have, rushing for 13 yards on 5 carries. It looks like Pete Carroll will use his backs as he did at USC, spreading around the carries, which could be very frustrating for fantasy owners. Forsett is probably the most valuable Seattle back though as I do feel he is the most talented and best equipped to take advantage of his carries.

RB Leon Washington UP

Washington was the best Seattle back during the 2^nd preseason game with 4 carries for 19 yards. He appears healthy and will definitely be in the mix this year in Seattle.

RB Brandon Jacobs DOWN

So much for being healthy, Jacobs missed the 2^nd preseason game with a neck injury and now it is being reportedly by ESPN’s Matt Mosley that Ahmad Bradshaw will be the feature back for the Giants this year and could get up to 2/3rds of the carries.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw UP

Bradshaw impressed with Jacobs out with 28 yards and a score on 6 carries and appears in line to be the feature back in New York over Brandon Jacobs.

WR Jacoby Jones DOWN

So much for being a sleeper. Jones was back to the 2^nd team during the Texans week 2 game.

WR Kevin Walter UP

Walter was back in the first team offense with Houston. Houston is one of 5 offenses in the league, New England, Indianapolis, New Orleans, and Green Bay being the other 4, where, a player has fantasy value just for being a starting receiver. Walter is now an interesting late round sleeper. Remember this guy has 800 yards and 8 scores just 2 years ago.

RB Larry Johnson DOWN

Johnson was allowed to showcase what he had this week, in an attempt to win the starting job. He rushed for 4 yards on 8 carries. Chances are, he’s not winning that job.

RB Clinton Portis UP

Portis hasn’t been amazing in his first two preseason games, but Larry Johnson struggled in his showcase game week 2 and I don’t expect Willie Parker to be much better next week. It appears Portis will at least start the year as the starter, though don’t expect too much out of him.

RB Ryan Torain UP

Willie Parker, Larry Johnson, and Clinton Portis are all old. Ryan Torain is a talented kid out of Arizona State that has had a disappointing career so far thanks to injuries. He’s in his 3^rd year and he was drafted by none other than Mike Shanahan, who liked him so much that he brought him over from Denver to Washington. I’m not saying he’ll start the year as starter, but Torain, who has 18 carries for 64 yards in his first two preseason games as a 2^nd teamer, could end up being the starter in Washington sooner or later, so remember the name.

 

RB Matt Forte UP

Forte was amazing in his 2^nd preseason game going for 109 yards and a score on 5 carries. 89 of those yards were on one carry, but he looked solid the whole night and has looked better than Chester Taylor the entire preseason. Forte will probably win the job in Chicago and if the signing of Taylor has motivated him to get back into shape, he could be a legitimate fantasy sleeper again.

WR Jabar Gaffney UP

Gaffney has been used in the #1 receiver role in Denver this preseason and had 6 catches for 98 yards on 7 targets in his 2^nd preseason game. It appears it will be him, not Demaryius Thomas or Eddie Royal who is the impact receiver in Denver this year. Gaffney had 21 catches for 282 yards and 2 score in his final 2 regular seasons last year.

WR Chaz Schilens DOWN

Schilens missed the Raiders’ 2^nd preseason and has missed some practice time with a foot injury, as well as a knee injury. This is the same foot that cost him 8 games last season so this is hardly a good sign for the man who has the inside track to be the Raiders’ #1 receiver for 2010. There is also speculation that he needs knee surgery.

WR Louis Murphy UP

With Schilens out, the 2^nd year Murphy shined. Murphy was their best receiver when he played last year, with Darrius Heyward Bey struggling and Schilens not 100% after his foot injury, and if Schilens is less than 100% again or misses anytime, Murphy could be a solid WR3 for a few weeks. He’s worth a look late in your fantasy draft. He’d be a huge fantasy player if Schilens missed any time with a foot injury or knee surgery.

RB Darren McFadden DOWN

McFadden has missed about two weeks and counting of practice and two preseason game with a very limiting foot injury. In the meantime, his competition for the starting job, Michael Bush, has been shining brightly both in practice and in games. This competition looks almost over. It appears McFadden will be the backup.

RB Michael Bush UP

Bush has taken advantage of McFadden’s injury and looks in line to win the starting running back job in Oakland. He’s a very talented back and will almost certainly be a 1000 yard guy if given 250+ carries. He also has decent hands and good size near the end zone, provided the Raiders make it to the end zone with more consistency this year than years past.

RB Marion Barber UP

For the 2^nd straight week, Barber has been the first string back for the Cowboys. It appears that despite rumors than Felix Jones was their guy and Barber was trade bait, Barber and Jones have had no change in their roles from last year. Expect Barber to match his 2009 stats and likely surpass them as he did play most of 2009 with a lingering hammy problem.

RB Felix Jones DOWN

So much for Jones as lead back. He could overtake Barber as starter at some point this year, but at least for the start of the season, Jones isn’t a fantasy starter caliber player. He’s still worth a bench spot, but you can do a lot better with a mid round selection than Jones.

WR Derrick Mason UP

Despite all the new weapons the Ravens gave Joe Flacco this offseason, he’s still doing what he knows how to do best in the preseason, throwing it to Derrick Mason. Mason only has one season of 1000 yards or less in the past 10 years and could challenge for another 1000 yard season this year, even with all these new weapons around him. Even if he doesn’t get 1000 yards, he’ll be close and he’s extremely undervalued this year.

WR Anquan Boldin DOWN

Boldin only has 2 receptions in his first 2 preseason games and simply is not being targeted as much as Flacco’s longest tenured target, Derrick Mason. This could continue into the season, even though Boldin is more physically impressive.

QB Jimmy Clausen DOWN

Clausen stunk up the joint in his 2^nd preseason game against the Jets. I don’t think he can win that starting job after that performance.

QB Matt Moore UP

Moore wasn’t much better than Clausen in their 2^nd preseason game as, even without Darrelle Revis, the Jets secondary completely shut down the Panthers aerial attack. However, Clausen’s performance was so bad he all but eliminated himself from the starting job competition. Moore looks like the guy and therefore an interesting late round sleeper. Despite his 2^nd week performance, Moore is still a talented and underrated quarterback who put up solid numbers to end the last year. He is the reason why I believe the Panthers will win many games against the NFL Spread. This is a very underrated bunch.

WR Larry Fitzgerald DOWN

Whether it be Leinart or Anderson, the Cardinals couldn’t do anything offensively against the Titans in their 2^nd preseason game. For what it’s worth, Leinart was worse, but they both sucked. With Leinart it was all checkdowns and underthrows and with Anderson it was a bunch of inaccurate overthrows. Fitzgerald is good, but he can’t throw the ball to himself. He also has a lingering knee injury and lingering injuries sapped a lot of his production last year. He may have issues reaching both 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns this year.

WR Steve Breaston DOWN

It’s looking more and more like the Cardinals are going to be a horrible offensive bunch and as a horrible bunch, it’s going to be tough for them to have two fantasy caliber receiver. Breaston is going to have minimal value as the #2 to Fitz this year.

WR Sidney Rice DOWN

Rice has confirmed that he did have hip surgery and will miss at least 8 weeks and could miss the entire season, as with these injuries, the recovery time is often longer than reported. This is a huge hit for one of my top 5 receivers. Don’t expect him to be a top 5 receiver once he’s back either. I don’t think he’ll have much more than 500 yards and 5 scores this year. If you want to draft him still, you’ll have to use up a bench spot on him for a while. I’d let someone else deal with this mess.

WR Bernard Berrian UP

Rice has a bad hip and will miss at least 8 weeks. Harvin just fainted on a football field. All of a sudden, Berrian looks like an interesting late round option.

QB Brett Favre DOWN

The reason Favre had a career year at age 40 last year, probably had something to do with the fact that he was working with one of his more talented receiving corps. With Rice out and Harvin also nowhere near game ready, those receiving corps don’t look as great.

TE Visanthe Shiancoe UP

With the 6-4 Rice out of there, Shiancoe will continue to be Favre’s favorite end zone target. He should get double digit scores again and should also be more involved in the passing game between the 20s as well.

RB Chris Wells DOWN

Wells once again did not get a carry until the 2^nd quarter. It looks like, at the very least, he will be splitting carries with Hightower in their pass heavy offense, as Hightower is the far superior pass catcher and pass blocker.

RB Tim Hightower UP

Hightower got the start again but only managed 3 yards on 5 carries. Still, the start is more important for fantasy purposes.

 

 

The Bears went 11-5 and made the NFC Championship game last year, but I never bet big money on them to win ever. I didn’t trust them. Jay Cutler is an interception prone quarterback and offensive coordinator Mike Martz is a coordinator whose system leads to a lot of turnovers (a lot of yards and touchdowns too, but a lot of turnovers).

It also leads to a lot of sacks, complete with the Mike Martz “oh shit, I think I’ve actually killed my quarterback this time” face. Chicago’s offensive line was just going to be overmatched. I felt this would lead to several ugly losses, implosions you could call them. I just didn’t feel they were consistent enough to win 3 or 4 games in a row to win the Super Bowl.

I was right in that prediction. The Bears only lost 5 regular season games, but all 5 of them were ugly games by the Bears offense. They had a game against the Giants in which they allowed 10 sacks, 9 in the first half, knocking Jay Cutler out. Cutler had a 4 interception game against the Redskins. They lost 36-7 to the Patriots. They surrendered 6 sacks to the Seahawks and then another 6 sacks to the Packers.

They won one playoff game, Jay Cutler’s first playoff game since high school. However, they eventually imploded the next week against division rival and eventual Super Bowl champions the Green Bay Packers. A 21-14 loss might not look terrible, but let’s consider some facts. Jay Cutler was 6-14 for 80 yards before eventually going down with an “is he really hurt? really?” knee injury that will forever be remembered as “kneegate.” The Bears were down 21-0 at the time before 3^rd stringer Caleb Hanie, following an 0 for 4 from Todd Collins, almost led the most improbable comeback in years.

Every year since 2003, at least one team that gets a first round bye misses the playoffs the following season. I already have Pittsburgh doing so, but I also will have Chicago doing so. With any reasonable luck, I think they’re at best an 8-8 or 9-7 team last year. They had a point differential of plus 46 and a lot of luck in their wins.

They beat Detroit week 1 when a Calvin Johnson touchdown that would have won the game for the Bears was ruled an incompletion. According to NFL rules, that call was correct, but the rules are bullshit. They beat the Cowboys week 2, but remember these were the 1-7 Wade Phillips Cowboys, not the Cowboys that went 5-3 in the 2^nd half to finish 6-10. They beat Green Bay week 3 by a mere 3 points despite the fact that Green Bay essentially handed the game to them with 18 penalties.

They beat Carolina week 5, but who didn’t? They beat the then winless Bills week 9 by 3, despite scoring 3 touchdowns and no field goals, the same as the Bills did (the Bears had a 2 point conversion and the Bills missed an extra point and failed on a 2 point conversion). They beat the lowly Vikings week 10 and then beat the Dolphins and their 3^rd string quarterback (and 3^rd string center) week 11.

They beat Philadelphia by 5 week 12, which would have been a lot more impressive had Asante Samuel played. Samuel was arguably the best cornerback in the league last year. He has great ball skills and almost certainly would have picked off Cutler once or twice. They beat Detroit by 4 week 13, the homeless Vikings week 15, and had their most impressive win week 16 when they beat the Jets. They won a playoff game as well, but they did it against the Seahawks who made the playoffs at 7-9 and were 1 15+ point loss away from setting a single season record with 10 15+ point losses. Basically, lady luck was on their side all season.

That won’t be the case this season and, on top of that, they have to play a first place schedule. They play the Packers twice, Atlanta, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Detroit twice, and San Diego. Their 5 easy games are Seattle, Kansas City, Minnesota twice, and Carolina. They still have major problems on the line and an interception prone quarterback with a mad genius offensive coordinator whose scheme puts the spotlight on this team’s weaknesses.

At left tackle, Frank Omiyale, rated as one of the worst guards in 2009, allowed 14 sacks and committed 11 penalties. He’s been demoted and J’Marcus Webb will move from the right side to the left side. I don’t know how much better that is. Going against easier pass rushers on the right side, Webb allowed 12 sacks and a whopping 48 quarterback pressures last season. He also committed 10 penalties. He was just a 7^th round rookie so he might be better this season, but the Bears should not feel secure with him protecting Cutler’s blindside.

Taking Webb’s place on the right side is rookie first round pick Gabe Carimi. Carimi is a talented run blocker who struggles with pass protection and for that reason is nothing more than a right tackle in this league. Still, he could be the team’s best offensive lineman next season as a mere rookie. That says something about how bad this line is.

Last year’s best offensive lineman, Olin Kreutz, is gone as a free agent. Kreutz had spent 13 seasons with the team and was offended when the Bears refused to pay him the 4.5 million he wanted, offering 4 million instead. He refused to resign in Chicago and he eventually signed for 2 million in New Orleans (oops), but that’s beside the point.

The Bears will miss his talent and veteran leadership on the line and in the locker room as well. His former teammates were very angry and disappointed with the front office when they refused to meet Kreutz’ demands and bring him back. Chemistry problems are never good, especially since I still believe several veterans in this locker room are either not happy with Cutler for sitting out the rest of the NFC Championship game and/or Lovie Smith for pulling Cutler, if that is in fact what happened. Finally, they’ll miss the continuity with Kreutz, a bad thing coming out of a lockout shortened offseason.

To take Kreutz’ place in the middle, the Bears have moved Roberto Garza from right guard. Garza is a mediocre player who doesn’t have a lot of experience at center, not a good thing coming out of this lockout. The Bears also signed Chris Spencer this offseason for 6 million dollars over 2 years. Besides the potential chemistry problems created by the Bears signing Spencer for 6 million while refusing to give Kreutz 4.5 (over a shorter period of time, but still), Spencer is a mediocre and injury prone player. He’ll start at center if there’s a problem with one of the guards and Garza has to move back there.

There’s a very good chance there’s a problem with one of the guards. At right guard, Lance Louis, a backup last season, steps into the starting lineup with Garza moving to center. He’s a tried and failed starter in this league. Meanwhile, at left guard, Chris Williams is only still on the roster and in a starting spot because he was the 14^th overall pick in 2008 and the Bears don’t want to admit defeat. Williams, a left tackle at Vanderbilt, has been tried at every position except center in an attempt by the Bears to get some sort of value out of him, with no success.

Cutler can’t be too thrilled about having to play behind this line. In fact, after they allowed 9 sacks to the lowly Bills in their first preseason game, I would not be surprised if Cutler ruled himself out for the season as a precautionary measure. I’m sorry. I had to. Cutler’s receiving corps, however, are a little better than his offensive line.

The Bears used a trio of Johnny Knox, Devin Hester, and Earl Bennett last season. Obviously they were not too thrilled with Bennett because they signed Roy Williams after Dallas cut him. Williams was a monumental bust in Dallas after they traded a 1^st a 3^rd and a 6^th for him and gave him a large long term deal.

However, Williams was a Pro Bowler in 2006 under Mike Martz when he was a coordinator in Detroit. He was on pace for another Pro Bowl season in 2007, Martz’ only other season in Detroit, before he got hurt so if there’s anywhere Williams is going to revive his career, it’s in Chicago with Martz. Knox, Williams, and Hester are currently all battling for positioning on the depth chart.

Knox is the most talented of the 3, catching 51 passes for 960 yards and 5 touchdowns last year in his 2^nd season. He was the #1 last year, but has recently been demoted to 2^nd string in favor of Roy Williams, who Mike Martz apparently has a boner for. Devin Hester will be the #2 receiver once again, even though Knox is significantly more talented as a receiver than he is. Knox has been involved in trade talks even, but it now appears that he isn’t going anywhere. He’ll still see a lot of the field because the Bears use so many 3 wide receiver sets, but he deserves to be a starter.

While they added to their receiving corps with Roy Williams, they subtracted by trading talented tight end Greg Olsen to Carolina for a 3^rd round pick. They won’t miss him too much, however. Mike Martz has no clue what to do with a tight end so tight ends are fairly useless to the Bears. Matt Speath, primarily a blocker, is penciled in as the starter, but he won’t see the ball much.

Matt Forte is the lead back and no one has benefited more from Mike Martz’ presence than Forte. Martz has turned him into a Marshall Faulk lite type player. He rushed for 1069 yards on 237 carries and also caught 51 passes for 547 yards. Backing him up, the Bears have nothing but two washed up veteran running backs. Chester Taylor rushed for a mere 2.4 yards per carry last season, the equivalent of taking the hand off and falling over. To “upgrade” their #2 back position, the Bears brought in another former Cowboy, Marion Barber, who averaged 3.3 yards per carry last season. Neither have much, if anything left in the tank, but could vulture goal line carries from Forte.

 

When the Bears made the Super Bowl in 2006, it was on the strength of their defense. This is obvious, as their quarterback was Rex Grossman (still confused as to how this happened). The key defensive players for the Bears in 2006 were Tommie Harris, Brian Urlacher, and Lance Briggs. Briggs and Urlacher are both still very solid players, but they aren’t what they used to be. Both are over thirty. Meanwhile, Tommie Harris has struggled with injuries and was cut this past offseason.

However, the Bears have added Julius Peppers into the mix. He was their best defensive player hands down last season. Peppers may have only had 8 sacks, but he was an absolute beast against the run. He also held his own in pass coverage, leading all defensive ends in the league in batted passes. He also picked off 2 passes and forced 3 fumbles. He did this all while being constantly double teamed.

The beneficiary of Peppers constantly being doubled was Isreal Idonije. The 30-year-old was a first time starter in 2010, yet recorded 8 sacks thanks to Peppers’ drawing all the attention on the right side. It’s conceivable that Idonije struggles this season. If so, Corey Wootton, a 2010 4^th round pick, could step in, as could Vernon Gholston.

Wootton was decent as a rookie and will forever be remembered as the pass rusher who ended Brett Favre’s career (or so we think). Gholston, meanwhile, was a monumental bust with the New York Jets as the 6^th overall pick in 2008 out of Ohio State. He had no sacks in 3 seasons, but gets a fresh start in Chicago in a 4-3 defense like the one he played in at Ohio State. He’ll also get to work with defensive line coach, Rod Marinelli, an expert at coaching up defensive linemen.

Gholston is not the only reclamation project in town. Amobi Okoye was the 11^th overall pick in 2007, but struggled in 4 seasons in Houston. He was eventually cut this offseason because he struggled to adapt to Houston’s new 3-4 defense. He’ll continue to play in a 4-3 in Chicago. He too will get to work with Marinelli and he’s currently listed as the starter next to Anthony Adams, a declining, but still talented player.

Okoye could struggle. He just turned 24 (remember, he was the youngest player ever drafted in the first round when he was drafted), but had a mere 11 sacks in 4 seasons with the Texans. If he struggles, rookie 2^nd round pick Stephen Paea would be inserted into the starting lineup. Paea/Okoye will replace Tommie Harris in the lineup nicely. Paea fell to the middle of the 2^nd round this past April and the Bears, who considered him at 29 in the first round, moved up to get him so they obviously like him.

At linebacker, Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs are not quite the same players they used to be, but they are still very, very good players, especially Urlacher, who was one of the best players at his positions at age 33 with 125 tackles. The 3^rd linebacker spot is much more questionable. Nick Roach, a career backup, will start on the strong side with incumbent starter Pisa Tinoisamoa still a free agent after major knee surgery. He wouldn’t be ready for the start of the season even if he was resigned, and besides, he was a pretty marginal player last year anywhere. JT Thomas seems like the strong side linebacker of the future, but he was just a 6^th round pick in April and he’ll be hurt by the lockout.

At cornerback, the Bears try to go three deep with Charles Tillman, Tim Jennings, and Dre Moore, in an attempt to match up with the Packers depth at receiver, but they fail in that regard. None of those 3 were particularly great in 2010, though none of the three were particularly bad either. I’m surprised the Bears didn’t address this position through the draft.

At strong safety, Danieal Manning is gone as a free agent and 2010 3^rd round pick Major Wright, who flashed as a rookie, will become the full time starter. Meanwhile, the marginal Chris Harris will start at free safety. They have rookie 3^rd round pick Chris Conte in the mix. He can play either safety position and might even see time at cornerback, but the Bears have said they view him as a safety long term and also that they don’t plan on playing him very much this season.

The NFL is a league of parity. Teams come up. Teams go down. I think this is a team that goes down this year. They had a lot of lucky wins last year and they frequently combusted. They have a very tough schedule this year and a several potential locker room chemistry problems. Every season since 2003, there has been at least one team that had a first round bye in the previous season that missed the playoffs in the next season. I think the Bears do so this season.

Quarterback: B-

Running backs: B

Receiving corps: C+

Offensive line: D

Run defense: B+

Pass rush: B-

Pass coverage: B-

Coaching: C+

Projection: 7-9 3^rd in NFC North

 

 

 

OT Mike Adams (Ohio State)

S Mark Barron (Alabama)

WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State)

DE Andre Branch (Clemson)

G James Brown (Troy)

MLB Tank Carder (TCU)

CB Morris Claiborne (LSU)

QB Kirk Cousins (Michigan State)

DT Fletcher Cox (Mississippi)

DE Vinny Curry (Marshall)

CB Jamell Fleming (Oklahoma)

CB Stephon Gilmore (South Carolina)

G Cordy Glenn (Georgia)

MLB Dont’a Hightower (Alabama)

DE Melvin Ingram (South Carolina)

OLB Bruce Irvin (West Virginia)

DE Chandler Jones (Syracuse)

OT Matt Kalil (USC)

CB Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama)

MLB Luke Kuechly (Boston College)

OT Jonathan Martin (Stanford)

DE Shea McClellin (Boise State)

CB DeQuan Menzie (Alabama)

DE Whitney Mercilus (Illinois)

QB Brock Osweiler (Arizona State)

WR Brian Quick (Appalachian State)

RB Trent Richardson (Alabama)

CB Central Florida (UCF)

QB Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M)

DE Olivier Vernon (Miami)

QB Russell Wilson (Wisconsin)

 

 

Quarterback

Oklahoma State

6-4 221

Draft board overall prospect rank: #196

Draft board overall quarterback rank: #10

Overall rating: 53 (6^th rounder)

40 time: 4.95

Games watched: Oklahoma State/Texas A&M, Texas/Oklahoma State, Oklahoma State/Oklahoma

Positives

·         NFL caliber arm

·         NFL built (6-4 221)

·         Can make all the throws

·         Incredibly productive over 2 seasons as a starter (2011: 72.3%, 8.4 YPA, 37/13 TD/INT, 2010: 66.9%, 8.4 YPA, 34/13 TD/INT)

·         Mature

·         Athletic (5 years as a minor league pitcher)

·         Confident

·         Trusts his arm (gunslinger mentality)

·         Winner in a tough conference (23-3)

·         Won a lot of shoot outs

·         Beat Landry Jones, Robert Griffin, and Ryan Tannehill this season (signature win against Texas A&M)

Negatives

·         Age (29 in October)

·         Questionable decision making

·         Gunslinger who forces things

·         Overly confident in his arm on occasion

·         Gets flustered under pressure

·         Footwork needs work

·         Not a running threat

·         Very little under center experience

·         Possible system quarterback

·         Had a lot of talent around him

NFL Comparison: Jake Plummer

If Brandon Weeden were 22 or 23, I’d have a 2^nd round grade or so on him. I’m tough on quarterbacks. Basically, I’d have him lower than Brock Osweiler, who I love and think is incredibly underrated, and higher than Ryan Tannehill, who is very athletic, but raw, less experienced, less productive than Weeden, who he lost to head to head.

Weeden certainly has the upside to be an NFL starter, but I don’t think he’s quite ready. His major issues are his pocket presence and his tendency to force things. He’s got a great arm and he knows it, but he tends to make risky throws and overestimate his own abilities. Under pressure, his decision making gets worse.

These aren’t uncorrectable problems and some elements of being a gunslinger can be very useful (just ask Brett Favre), but he needs to learn to reign in his abilities. He’ll also need to learn to read more complex defenses (not a lot of those in the Big 12), play under center (he didn’t do a lot of that at Oklahoma State), and run a Pro Style offense (again, didn’t do a lot of that at Oklahoma State). For this reason, I don’t think he’s someone who can start right away.

That would be fine if he were 22 or 23, but he’s 29 in October. He’s already older than Aaron Rodgers, thanks to a 5 year failed minor league baseball career. This has some benefits. He’s mature and can handle professional sports and it shows he’s athletic. However, teams won’t have a lot of time to wait around on him. He’s a risk and a prospect who wouldn’t be able to start week 1. For this reason, I have a late round grade on him.

However, because of the demand for quarterbacks in the NFL, he could actually go in the first round. I expect him to be something who throws a lot of interceptions as he faces more complex defenses and continues to make risky throws as a habit. He’ll improve as his career goes along, but he won’t have a very long career because of his age.

I compare him to Jake Plummer because he threw a lot of interceptions early in his career before finally settling down once he teamed up with Mike Shanahan. Also, Plummer’s career wasn’t very long because he decided to retire unexpectedly (with 161 career interceptions). He also was a good athlete who played multiple sports in High School and became a professional hand ball player after his early retirement. 

 

 

 

20. DE Adrian Clayborn C

I knew they were high on Clayborn, but over Cameron Jordan? Huh? Jordan is clearly the better prospect at this point. He was more productive than Clayborn. He’s more athletic. He doesn’t have a medical red flag and he doesn’t have any character red flags. They do fill a huge need though.

51. DE Da’Quan Bowers A

I wouldn’t have taken this guy in the first because that’s a 5 year contract commitment. However, with a 4 year commitment in the 2^nd round, he’s definitely worth it. I mean, this guy had the talent to be the #1 pick before all the injury red flags popped up. He also fills a major need for them. They needed two ends this year just like they needed two defensive tackles last year.

84. OLB Mason Foster A

Another good value who fills a major need. Foster can move outside if they resign Barrett Ruud and play opposite the emerging Dekoda Watson. He can also play inside if Ruud leaves.

104. TE Luke Stocker B-

I think they had bigger needs than tight end like cornerback, safety, and maybe another linebacker, but Kellen Winslow has a history of injury problems and more and more teams are going to two tight end sets. Stocker is also a better blocker than Winslow and fits the draft range.

151. S Ahmad Black A-

Tanard Jackson could be cut for disciplinary reasons. Sean Jones sucks so they’d need another safety opposite Cody Grimm. Black might not be athletic enough to be anything other than a depth safety and a special teamer, but he fits the range decently, though I think there were better safeties available.

187. RB Allen Bradford C-

They needed a running back behind LeGarrette Blount, but I think Bradford is a reach and I don’t think he compliments Blount at all. They’re very, very similar backs. Neither have great speed or can catch passes. They still need a speedy 3^rd down back.

222. CB Anthony Gaitor B+

They needed another cornerback in the mix given Aqib Talib’s legal troubles and Ronde Barber’s age. Gaitor is a minor reach and there were better cornerbacks available, but it’s the 7^th round.

238. TE Daniel Hardy C

A 2nd tight end? I wasn’t so sure they needed the first one. Hardy isn’t a huge reach though and he can play special teams.

Overall:

Their first 3 picks made a lot of sense in terms of filling needs. I think linebacker and 2 defensive ends were their biggest needs and the selections of Bowers and Foster were really good values. I think there were better available ends than Adrian Clayborn at 20, especially Cameron Jordan, but I like the idea behind their first 3 picks. They didn’t reach for anyone and they filled most of their major needs, especially on the defense side of the ball, the trouble side. If Clayborn and Bowers can beat injury problems and pan out early, they could have a very, very dangerous defensive line with those two, Gerald McCoy, and Brian Price. If Josh Freeman continues his development and their defense can stay healthy, this could be a very, very good team. I love their draft’s upside.

Grade: B+

 

 

Trade for Cincinnati: There was almost no chance they were bringing Ocho back. He didn’t want to be there. They wanted to go full force forward with their youth movement at receiver. Plus, Carson Palmer didn’t like playing with him and right now they’re trying to convince Palmer to come out of retirement. Credit them for getting something for him.

Grade: A

Trade for New England: Ochocinco wanted to be a Patriot. He wants to win and I think he’s ready to buy into the Patriot way. This team needed to make their offensive less one-dimensional and adding a deep threat like Ochocinco is what they needed. He comes very cheap for them in terms of draft picks and financial compensation.

Grade: A

 

 

The Redskins really needed interior line help, but I think they slightly overpaid for Chris Chester, giving him 20 million over 5 years. The Redskins are really splurging on free agents this offseason, signing OJ Atogwe, Santana Moss, Chris Chester, Stephen Bowen, Josh Wilson, and Barry Cofield. It won’t take them into the playoffs because their quarterbacks suck, but it might make them just good enough to not be able to draft Andrew Luck next year.

Grade: B

 

 

Quarterback

Drew Stanton is currently the #1 quarterback on their depth chart. Hmm…I wonder who they’ll draft #1 overall.

Tight End

Dallas Clark and Jacob Tamme are gone. The top tight end on their roster is Brody Eldridge. Eldridge has 14 career catches. In 4 years at Oklahoma, he caught 12 passes. He’s a big blocker, but nothing more. Andrew Luck’s former favorite weapon at Stanford, Coby Fleener probably won’t get past them at 34 in the 2^nd round.

Nose Tackle

The Colts are switching to a 3-4 defense, but they don’t have any defensive players who weigh more than 310 pounds. They need one of those big, 2 down, true run stuffing nose tackles for their new defense.

Cornerback

The Colts ranked 26^th in YPA allowed last season. It’s hard to believe that they have 3 needs bigger than this, but they do. Jerraud Powers and Kevin Thomas are penciled in as the starters for next season.

Wide Receiver

They resigned Reggie Wayne in a surprise move, but he’s their only proven wide receiver and he’s 34 in November. Austin Collie has never done anything without Peyton Manning and he has a checkered injury past. Blair White was just cut.

 

Offensive Tackle

Anthony Castonzo had a solid rookie year and is moving to left tackle full time. At right tackle, they brought in Winston Justice to compete with Jeff Linkenbach, who allowed 9 sacks and 35 pressures, while committing 4 penalties at left and right tackle last season. Justice was awful in 2010 with the Eagles, the last time he was a starter. I hope they don’t think the position is fixed.

Guard

Mike Pollak and Ryan Diem are gone. Ben Ijalana will be moving to guard after the 2011 2^nd round pick missed most of last season with injury. Opposite him, Joe Reitz will be given his first chance to be a full time starter. They may want some competition for him.

Middle Linebacker

Gary Brackett was part of their veteran purge. He was expected to start inside next to Pat Angerer, but now Kavell Connor is penciled in as the starter. Connor really struggled last season on the outside, so they’ll want some competition.

Running Back

Joseph Addai is a free agent who probably won’t return. They won’t miss him, but it’s not like Delone Carter and Donald Brown are much better. However, with so many other needs, they probably won’t be able to address this one. 

Rush Linebacker

Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are both over 30. Freeney is also a free agent after next season. They’ve shopped him around this offseason, but it appears they’ll hang on to him. He might not be back next season. Meanwhile, 2010 1st round pick Jerry Hughes has yet to do anything yet. 

 

 

By Jim Keller 

The temporary era for Jon Kitna starts this weekend.  The bigger question in Dallas is when the Wade Phillips era will come to an excruciating end. 

The demoralized Cowboys will test their pride Sunday at Cowboys when they host the Jacksonville Jaguars. 

Dallas (1-5) was supposed to contend for the Super Bowl this season and perhaps be the first host city to appear in the game, but got off to a 1-4 start because an offense that averaged 400 yards per game but couldn’t make a big play to offset costly penalties and turnovers and a solid defense that couldn’t force turnovers. 

All of that seemed to change last week when the Cowboys got three takeaways in the first 20 minutes and a 92-yard punt return by outstanding rookie Dez Bryant to take a 20-7 lead against the rival New York Giants. 

However it was about that time when it was revealed that starting quarterback Tony Romo had suffered a broken collarbone after a sack by linebacker Michael Boley, and both the offense and defense went into a tailspin in which it never recovered. 

After Bryant’s score, New York scored four touchdowns and a field goal in its next five possessions while holding the Cowboys to 26 yards and one first down in Kitna’s first seven drives. 

Kitna finished up 16 of 33 for 187 yards and two late touchdowns to Bryant as Dallas made the 41-35 final respectable. 

The 14-year veteran has started 115 games during his career with Seattle, Cincinnati, and Detroit, completing 60 percent of his passes with 154 TDs and 151 interceptions.  His clubs have won just 49 of his starts. 

He led the NFL with 372 completions in 2006 and led with 20 picks the following season – both with Detroit.  His best season was 2003 with Cincinnati. He completed 62 percent of his tosses for 3,591 yards and a career-high 26 TDs against 15 interceptions. 

A Dallas defense that entered third in total defense, was shredded for 497 yards. Eli Manning passed for 306 yards and four touchdowns and Ahmad Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith each went over 100 yards from scrimmage. 

Since only the 1970 Cincinnati Bengals have rallied from a 1-5 start to make the playoffs, speculation has already begun about the future of Phillips. Owner Jerry Jones has stated many times that he doesn’t like making changes in midseason, but the Cowboys are out of it and there’s pressure for Jones to start making contact with the power coaches around the league. 

With Romo out at least six to eight weeks, Kitna will be making his first start since 2008 against Jacksonville (3-4), which played Kansas City tight for three quarters last week before suffering a 42-20 defeat. 

The Jaguars gave up 236 yards on the ground to the Chiefs tandem of Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles, but they shouldn’t have to woory that much this week. Dallas ran the ball just 13 times against the Giants and rank 30th in the league at 86 yards per game.

Todd Bouman, a 38-year-old signed off the street when injuries sidelined David Garrard (concussion) and Trent Edwards (thumb), made his first start since 2001 and completed 18 of 34 for 222 yards and two TDs.  However, he threw two interceptions, one that gave the Chiefs a 28-20 lead another in the fourth quarter that led to another touchdown. 

Garrard has past the NFL’s mandated concussion tests and is expected to start Sunday. He was injured in Jacksonville’s 30-3 loss to the Tennessee Titans two Mondays ago. Taking Garrard’s place on the bench will be right tackle Eben Britton, who was placed on injured reserve with a season-ending shoulder injury. 

Maurice Jones-Drew, who was limited to 47 yards on 16 carries and has been held to 3.8 yards per carry, may find the sledding a little easier against the disheartened Cowboys, who have allowed three 100-yard rushers in their last four games. 

The clubs have split two games this decade, with Jacksonville winning the last match-up 24-17 in 2006.

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