Rate of Moving the Chains – Divisional Round

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure).

I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams). Below that, I use this to calculate spreads for this week’s games (by taking the differences between the differentials of the two teams and adding 3 points either way for homefield). It’s not a perfect formula, but it does a good job of lessening the value of inconsistent things like turnovers and return touchdowns. These are the remaining playoff teams and how they stack up.

Offense

Team First downs Touchdowns Punts Turnovers Failed 4th downs Field goal attempts
1 Denver 435 71 65 26 1 26 81.09%
2 San Diego 389 44 62 21 1 39 77.88%
3 New Orleans 385 51 64 21 10 36 76.90%
4 Carolina 319 38 70 19 3 27 75.00%
5 New England 378 44 77 20 8 41 74.30%
6 Indianapolis 346 44 77 18 7 41 73.17%
7 Seattle 307 41 74 19 5 35 72.35%
8 San Francisco 308 41 82 19 4 39 70.79%

 

Defense

Team First Downs Touchdowns Punts Turnovers Failed 4th downs Field goal attempts
1 Seattle 282 20 81 39 7 27 66.23%
2 Carolina 278 21 72 30 8 34 67.49%
3 San Francisco 302 32 90 30 13 27 67.61%
4 New Orleans 291 34 88 19 8 30 69.15%
5 New England 338 36 80 29 17 27 70.97%
6 Denver 339 44 87 26 11 26 71.86%
7 Indianapolis 349 40 77 28 10 33 72.44%
8 San Diego 354 38 68 21 9 31 75.24%

 

Differential

Team
1 Denver 9.23%
2 New Orleans 7.75%
3 Carolina 7.51%
4 Seattle 6.12%
5 New England 3.33%
6 San Francisco 3.18%
7 San Diego 2.64%
8 Indianapolis 0.73%

 

Projected Lines

SEA/NO 1.37
NE/ND 5.60
DEN/SD 9.59
CAR/SF 7.33

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s