1. Chicago Bears – QB Caleb Williams (USC)*
2. Washington Commanders – QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)*
3. New England Patriots – QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)*
4. Arizona Cardinals – WR Marvin Harrison (Ohio State)*
5. Minnesota Vikings (TRADE) – QB JJ McCarthy (Michigan)
6. New York Giants – WR Malik Nabers (LSU)*
7. Tennessee Titans – OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)*
8. Atlanta Falcons – CB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo)*
9. Chicago Bears – WR Rome Odunze (Washington)*
10. New York Jets – TE Brock Bowers (Georgia)
11. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE) – OT JC Latham (Alabama)
12. Denver Broncos – QB Michael Penix (Washington)*
13. Las Vegas Raiders – ED Dallas Turner (Alabama)
14. New Orleans Saints – OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State)
15. Indianapolis Colts – CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama)
16. Seattle Seahawks – OT Troy Fautanu (Washington)
17. Jacksonville Jaguars – CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson)
18. Cincinnati Bengals – WR Brian Thomas (LSU)
19. Los Angeles Rams – ED Laiatu Latu (UCLA)
20. Pittsburgh Steelers – CB Cooper DeJean (Iowa)
21. Miami Dolphins – DT Byron Murphy (Texas)
22. Philadelphia Eagles – OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)
23. Los Angeles Chargers – DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)
24. Dallas Cowboys – WR Adonai Mitchell (Texas)
25. Green Bay Packers – OT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State)
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ED Jared Verse (Florida State)
27. Arizona Cardinals – CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)
28. Buffalo Bills – WR Xavier Worthy (Texas)
29. Detroit Lions – CB Ennis Rakestraw (Missouri)
30. Baltimore Ravens – DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)
31. San Francisco 49ers – G Graham Barton (Duke)
32. Kansas City Chiefs – WR Xavier Legette (South Carolina)

Updated: 3/27/24

Next update: Early-to-mid April

1. Chicago Bears – QB Caleb Williams (USC)

Caleb Williams has been locked into this spot for months. The only question has been whether the Bears would trade this pick for a king’s ransom or use it themselves, but the most likely option was always keeping the pick and that was confirmed when the Bears traded incumbent quarterback Justin Fields to the Steelers for a conditional draft pick in 2025, freeing up their starting quarterback spot for Williams.

2. Washington Commanders – QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)

In a way, this is where the draft really begins, with Williams to the Bears at #1 being a lock. The Commanders will almost definitely be using this pick on a quarterback, with veteran journeyman backup Marcus Mariota being the only quarterback of note on their roster, following the trade of incumbent starter Sam Howell to the Seahawks. Which quarterback that will be is not as clear, with strong cases to be made for both Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and even JJ McCarthy. I could see any of three going here, but rumors are that the Commanders’ new front office loves the high upside Maye over the more polished Daniels, with McCarthy as the wild card option.

3. New England Patriots – QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)

The Patriots could use this pick on Marvin Harrison, a generational wide receiver prospect, after striking out on wide receivers in free agency, or they could trade down and accumulate multiple picks to address their many needs, but I still think it’s most likely that they take one of the quarterbacks that Washington doesn’t. A franchise quarterback is still the most valuable asset in the NFL and opportunities to pick high in a strong quarterback draft don’t come every year.

4. Arizona Cardinals – WR Marvin Harrison (Ohio State)

Arizona is in a good spot as the highest drafting team that doesn’t need a quarterback. They could trade down here with a team that needs a quarterback and accumulate more picks, or they could take the consensus best non-quarterback in the draft in Marvin Harrison, who would fill a huge need at wide receiver. A trade is a possibility, but the price will probably be steep because of the opportunity cost of not getting Harrison and the Cardinals already have another pick in the first round, so I think it’s more likely that they just stay put and take Harrison.

5. Minnesota Vikings (TRADE) – QB JJ McCarthy (Michigan)

The Chargers are also in a good spot at 5, not needing a quarterback, because they can either take Harrison if the Cardinals trade down with a quarterback needy team or they can be the ones to trade down for multiple picks if the Cardinals opt to take Harrison. In this scenario, the Cardinals take Harrison and the Chargers trade down with the Vikings, who acquired another first round pick (23) in a trade with the Texans and, as a result, can present the best package to move up. The Vikings are desperate for a quarterback after losing Kirk Cousins and replacing him with Sam Darnold and they reportedly love JJ McCarthy, who is a likely top-10, if not top-5 pick, depending on trades. A package of their original first round pick at 11, the Texans’ pick at 23, and a later pick in 2025 should be enough to get this done and it would make a lot of sense for the Chargers, who don’t need a quarterback, but have multiple pressing needs.

6. New York Giants – WR Rome Odunze (Washington)

The Giants could take JJ McCarthy here if he’s available, with Daniel Jones likely to be released at the end of next season when his guaranteed money is up, but Minnesota moved up ahead of them to grab McCarthy, so the Giants will have to address another position. Fortunately, they do have many other pressing needs, including wide receiver, where the Giants lack a #1 option or even a good #2. Malik Nabers is an option to be the second wide receiver off the board behind Harrison, but I think Odunze is a little bit ahead of him right now. He’d give Daniel Jones the true #1 option he’s never really had and, in the likely scenario that the Giants decide to move on from Jones in a year when his guaranteed money is up, Odunze will make life easier for whoever their next quarterback happens to be.

7. Tennessee Titans – OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)

The Titans are another team with a ton of needs, but their biggest one is offensive line and fortunately this is a very strong offensive line class. The Titans used a first round pick on Peter Skoronski in last year’s draft, but aside from free agent acquisition center Lloyd Cushenberry, Skoronski is the only player locked into a starting job on their offensive line in 2024 and he’s probably a guard long-term. Even if Skoronski ends up being a tackle long-term, the Titans need a bookend for him and Alt, who is probably the top tackle prospect in this draft, is a great value here at 7.

8. Atlanta Falcons – CB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo)

The Falcons are likely to focus on defense here, after addressing their biggest offensive needs of quarterback and wide receiver in free agency with Kirk Cousins and Darnell Mooney. This is a weak defensive draft at the top compared to the elite offensive prospects in this draft, but the Falcons should have their choice of defenders at 8 and this would be a good spot for the first defensive player to come off the board. Edge defender Dallas Turner is a strong option and would add to this team’s pass rush, but cornerback is a slightly bigger need in my opinion and Quinyon Mitchell is a similar caliber prospect as Turner.

9. Chicago Bears – WR Malik Nabers (LSU)

The Bears traded for Keenan Allen to give them another option at wide receiver opposite DJ Moore, but the Bears only gave up a 4th round pick in that trade and Allen is going into his age 32 season and a contract year, so that trade doesn’t preclude the Bears from taking a wide receiver at 9. Nabers would give them a needed third wide receiver in the short-term and a long-term bookend for DJ Moore. Teams normally take a complementary offensive player with their next pick after taking a first round quarterback and Nabers would be their best option, given that the Bears do have an intriguing young offensive line already.

10. New York Jets – TE Brock Bowers (Georgia)

Offensive tackle was the Jets’ biggest need coming into this off-season, but they addressed it with Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, who will start on the left and right side respectively in 2024. They’ll also be in their age 34 and age 33 seasons respectively, so the Jets could still take a tackle of the future here and plug him in at guard in the meantime, but the Jets also signed John Simpson to a sizeable contract in free agency to be their other guard opposite Alijah Vera-Tucker, who is probably their best returning offensive lineman, so guard isn’t really a need and, on top of that, the Jets are in win now mode with a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers who is heading into his age 41 season, so they’ll probably use this pick in a way that best maximizes their chances of winning in 2024. With that in mind, Brock Bowers makes a lot of sense as an elite tight end prospect who can fill an immediate need and contribute in a big way right away.

11. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE) – OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State)

The Chargers’ trade down works out well as they can get a player at 11 who would have been in consideration at 5. If the Chargers stay put at 5, a wide receiver Like Rome Odunze or Malik Nabers would be a strong possibility and if they stay put at 5 and take a tackle Joe Alt is more likely than Fashanu, but Fashanu would at least be in consideration and, with the other three aforementioned players off the board here at 11, this becomes an easy choice for the Chargers, who have a pressing need at right tackle that Fashanu can fill right away. The Chargers would then target a wide receiver or address one of their many defensive needs with their second pick in the first round at 23.

12. Denver Broncos – ED Dallas Turner (Alabama)

The Broncos are another team that will attempt to move up for a quarterback, with Jarrett Stidham currently penciled in as their starter, but they don’t have the multiple 2024 first round picks the Vikings have and they might not want to trade away multiple future high draft picks after all of the high draft picks they gave away for Russell Wilson, so the most likely scenario is they stay put at 12, miss out on one of the top-4 quarterback prospects, and address the position on day 2. At 12, Dallas Turner would be a strong option because he could be argued as the best available player and would fill a need at the edge defender position for a team who ranked just 23rd on PFF in team pass rush grade in 2023.

13. Las Vegas Raiders – CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama)

This pick stays the same from my pre-free agency mock draft, as cornerback was one of the Raiders’ biggest needs going into free agency and went unaddressed, with mediocre incumbent starter Amik Robertson signing with the Lions. Arnold would provide a starting caliber cornerback for a team that doesn’t really have one outside of Nate Hobbs.

14. New Orleans Saints – OT Troy Fautanu (Washington)

Trevor Penning was the Saints’ first round pick in 2022, but he’s largely been a bust in two years in the league, making just 6 starts thus far in his career due to a combination of injury and ineffectiveness. The Saints might give him one more shot at the left tackle job in 2024, but they at least need a good alternative at the position and Fautanu can give them that, while also giving them a starting option at guard, where James Hurst is a mediocre option in his age 33 season.

15. Indianapolis Colts – CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson)

The Colts re-signed Kenny Moore in free agency and have 2023 2nd round pick JuJu Brents, but they need a third cornerback to go with them. Nate Wiggins makes sense here for a team that doesn’t have a lot of other pressing needs. He’ll probably be the third cornerback off the board behind Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold, but he still has a good chance to be drafted in the teens.

16. Seattle Seahawks – OT JC Latham (Alabama)

The Seahawks’ offensive line struggled last season with both offensive tackle Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas missing time with injury and their replacement options struggling in their absence. Latham would give them a better insurance policy and could also play guard for a team that needs to replace Damien Lewis, who signed with the Panthers this off-season as a free agent.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars – ED Jared Verse (Florida State)

Jared Verse is a bit of a luxury pick for the Jaguars who don’t have any pressing needs that line up with the best players available at this point in the draft. Josh Allen and Travon Walker both had double digit sack seasons at the edge defender position last year, but their depth behind them is really lacking and Verse is a great value at 17. Allen is also on the franchise tag and has yet to be signed long-term.

18. Cincinnati Bengals – WR Brian Thomas (LSU)

Wide receiver might not seem like a big need for the Bengals, but they’re unlikely to re-sign Tyler Boyd in free agency this off-season, while the franchise tagged Tee Higgins might not be kept beyond this next season, with the Bengals’ cap situation getting tougher in the next few years with extensions for Joe Burrow and JaMarr Chase due. Thomas would give them a long-term receiving option opposite Chase and it doesn’t hurt that he also went to LSU, where Burrow and Chase both did.

19. Los Angeles Rams – ED Laiatu Latu (UCLA)

It’s weird seeing the Rams finally picking in the first round again. Trading down and accumulating multiple picks is a strong possibility, given how good they’ve been at finding gems in the mid-rounds, but if they stay put, Laiatu Latu would make a lot of sense, as the Rams need to get better at the edge defender position. Michael Hoecht started 17 games there in 2023, but struggled playing out of position and was tendered at the lowest level as a restricted free agent this off-season, which likely means the Rams don’t view him as a long-term starter opposite 2023 3rd round pick Byron Young, one of those mid-round gems, who showed a lot of promise in year one.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers – OT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State)

The Steelers used their first round pick on Broderick Jones in last year’s draft, but they need a long-term bookend for him, with incumbent starting left tackle Dan Moore being a mediocre option who now heads into the final year of his contract. The Steelers could take advantage of a strong offensive tackle class and use their first round pick on that position in back-to-back years.

21. Miami Dolphins – DT Byron Murphy (Texas)

The Dolphins probably wanted to keep Christian Wilkins, but for financial reasons they couldn’t franchise tag him or match the 4-year, 110 million dollar deal he got from the Raiders in free agency. They could opt to replace him in the draft and Byron Murphy would be a good fit for them with the 21st pick.

22. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Cooper DeJean (Iowa)

Darius Slay and James Bradberry were one of the best cornerback duos in the league during the Eagles run to the Super Bowl in 2022, but both took a big step back in 2023 and now they head into their age 33 and age 31 seasons respectively, so the Eagles will likely look at young cornerbacks early in the draft. DeJean can play the slot and/or safety while Slay and Bradberry remain on the roster as outside cornerbacks and DeJean the potential to be a long-term option on the outside as well.

23. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE) – WR Xavier Legette (South Carolina)

With the Chargers parting ways with both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams for financial reasons this off-season, wide receiver becomes a huge position of need for them. Last year’s first round pick Quentin Johnston has been a bust thus far and, even if he turns it around, the Chargers still don’t have much at the wide receiver position behind him. The Chargers will consider wide receivers with the 5th pick and if they move down to accumulate more picks, expect them to use at least one of their early picks on the position.

24. Dallas Cowboys – WR Adonai Mitchell (Texas)

The Cowboys still don’t have a good #2 wide receiver opposite Ceedee Lamb. Brandin Cooks was brought in last off-season, but he disappointed and now heads into his age 31 contract year. On top of that, fellow wide receiver Michael Gallup was also cut this off-season, rather than being paid 9.5 million dollars non-guaranteed on a contract that he signed when he was a much better player before his ACL tear. The Cowboys will likely address this position early in the draft. Mitchell would likely start as the #3 receiver behind Lamb and Cooks, but would give them a long-term complement for Lamb that they currently lack.

25. Green Bay Packers – OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)

It wasn’t a surprise the Packers cut David Bakhtiari, who was owed 20.9 million in his age 33 season in 2024 and had played just 13 games in the past 3 seasons due to knee problems, but the Packers also let Yosh Nijman leave in free agency and he was their primary fill-in for Bakhtiari over the past few seasons, so the Packers are pretty thin at the tackle position now. Rasheed Walker is currently penciled into the left tackle job, but he’s better off as a swing tackle. This is a position they could address in the first round of a strong offensive tackle class.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ED Chop Robinson (Penn State)

The Buccaneers made the aging Shaq Barrett a cap casualty this off-season and now need help at the edge defender position. Yaya Diaby and Joe Tyron-Shoyinka are young players with some promise, but the Buccaneers could add another blue chip prospect to the mix in the first round of the draft.

27. Arizona Cardinals – CB Ennis Rakestraw (Missouri)

Going into the off-season, the Cardinals didn’t have any starting caliber cornerbacks. They added Sean Murphy-Bunting in free agency, but he’s a very underwhelming option as a de facto #1 cornerback and they don’t have much behind him on the depth chart, so expect them to address this position relatively early in the draft.

28. Buffalo Bills – ED Darius Robinson (Missouri)

Veteran edge defenders Leonard Floyd and Shaq Lawson weren’t brought back this off-season. AJ Epenesa was re-signed and, along with Greg Rousseau, those two younger players will likely play bigger roles in 2024, but the Bills can’t count on their depth behind them, with their only real option being Von Miller, who is now going into his age 35 season and didn’t look nearly the same as usual in 2023 after another major injury. The Bills will probably add an edge defender early in the draft.

29. Detroit Lions – CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)

The Lions had to cut starting cornerback Cameron Sutton because of off-the-field problems, leaving them with a need at the position. The Lions fortunately acquired Carlton Davis from the Buccaneers via trade and Amik Robertson as a free agent, but Robertson is a mediocre option who didn’t get a big contract and, even if he locks down a starting job, the Lions could still use another, with Brian Branch potentially moving full-time to safety in 2023 in the absence of Tracy Walker and CJ Gardner-Johnson, who both left the team this off-season.

30. Baltimore Ravens – DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)

The Ravens re-signed Justin Madubuike and Michael Pierce this off-season, but still could use an upgrade at the third spot on their 3-man base defensive line, with the mediocre Brent Urban penciled into that spot for what would be his age 33 season in 2024. Newton would give them that upgrade while also having the ability to play all three downs inside next to Madubuike.

31. San Francisco 49ers – G Graham Barton (Duke)

The 49ers could use some young offensive line help with three of their projected five starting offensive linemen for 2024 being on the wrong side of 30, with left tackle Trent Williams going into his age 36 season and center Jake Brendel and guard Jon Feliciano both going into their age 32 seasons. Graham Barton has the versatility to play anywhere on the offensive line and would be a good fit for the 49ers zone blocking scheme.

32. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma)

The Chiefs won the Super Bowl this season, but their offense struggled by its normal standards because of issues in the receiving corps and on the offensive line. The Chiefs addressed their receiving corps in free agency with Marquise Brown and have a promising young receiver in Rashee Rice going into his second season in the league in 2024, so the tackle position is probably a bigger need for them now, with inexperienced 2023 3rd round pick Wanya Morris being an underwhelming option to replace veteran Donovan Smith on the blindside and highly paid right tackle Jawaan Taylor struggling mightily in his first season in Kansas City. Tyler Guyton could help right away at either spot.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Travon Walker (Georgia)
2. Detroit Lions – DE Aidan Hutchinson (Michigan)
3. Houston Texans – OT Ikem Ekwonu (NC State)
4. New York Jets – CB Ahmad Gardner (Cincinnati)
5. New Orleans Saints – QB Malik Willis (Liberty)
6. Carolina Panthers – QB Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh)
7. New York Giants – OT Evan Neal (Alabama)
8. Atlanta Falcons – DE Kayvon Thibodeaux (Oregon)
9. Houston Texans – CB Derek Stingley (LSU)
10. New York Jets – DE Jermaine Johnson (Florida State)
11. Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Matt Corral (Mississippi)
12. Kansas City Chiefs – WR Jameson Williams (Alabama)
13. Seattle Seahawks – OT Charles Cross (Mississippi State)
14. Green Bay Packers – WR Garrett Wilson (Ohio State)
15. Philadelphia Eagles – WR Drake London (USC)
16. New York Giants – S Kyle Hamilton (Notre Dame)
17. Los Angeles Chargers – DT Jordan Davis (Georgia)
18. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Trent McDuffie (Washington)
19. New York Giants – DE George Karlaftis (Purdue)
20. Washington Commanders – WR Chris Olave (Ohio State)
21. New England Patriots – OT Trevor Penning (Northern Iowa)
22. Baltimore Ravens – C Tyler Linderbaum (Iowa)
23. Arizona Cardinals – G Kenyon Green (Texas A&M)
24. Seattle Seahawks – QB Desmond Ridder (Cincinnati)
25. Buffalo Bills – CB Andrew Booth (Clemson)
26. Tennessee Titans – MLB Devin Lloyd (Utah)
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DT Devonte Wyatt (Georgia)
28. Green Bay Packers – G Zion Johnson (Boston College)
29. Minnesota Vikings – CB Kaiir Elam (Florida)
30. Minnesota Vikings – DE Boye Mafe (Minnesota)
31. Cincinnati Bengals – MLB Quay Walker (Georgia)
32. Detroit Lions – OLB Nakobe Dean (Georgia)

Throughout my season previews and my picks during the season, I refer to certain statistics as being either predictive, predictable, or not. I wanted to discuss what I mean by that and put all my supporting statistical evidence in one place. First, let’s define some terms.

Predictability is probably the easiest term to understand. A statistic is predictable if it can be easily predicted from one year to the next. This is measured by calculating the correlation between a team’s performance in a specific statistic in a specific season with its performance in that same statistic the following season.

Essentially, the higher the correlation the easier it is to predict how a team will perform in a certain statistic based solely on how they performed the season before. This is important because if a statistic can’t be reasonably predicted on a year-to-year basis, it doesn’t provide us much predictive value.

That leads into the second term, predictiveness. A statistic is predictive if it can be used to predict a team’s likelihood for winning. I am going to measure two types of winning percentage predictiveness, one measuring same-season win predictiveness and one measuring next season’s win predictiveness. 

Same-season win predictiveness is measuring the correlation between a certain statistic and a team’s winning percentage in the same season. For example, as a team averages more yards per play, their likelihood of winning goes up, but not at a perfect 1:1 rate and likely not at the exact same rate as other statistics, which have their own statistical relationship with winning percentage. Measuring correlation allows us to see which statistics most closely vary with winning percentage. 

That being said, while same-season win predictiveness is definitely worth taking into account, it’s not a particularly useful stat for handicapping purposes because it only works with data from games that have already happened. Once I know how many yards a team gained in a game, I can give you a pretty good guess as to whether or not they won the game, but that isn’t all that useful.

Next season’s win predictiveness is really what we want because we want to be able to take last year’s statistics and use them to most effectively predict future winning. Rather than just measuring the correlation between a statistic and the same season’s winning percentage, we also want to measure the correlation between a statistic and the next season’s winning percentage to see how closely those variables relate.

If this isn’t making sense yet, hopefully it will when I get into some examples. Let’s start with a common one, turnover margin. All statistics included in this post are over a sample size of the past 10 seasons (2011-2020).

Statistic	Year to Year	Winning %	Next Year Winning %
TO Margin	11.26%	69.67%	23.73%

We all know intuitively that winning the turnover margin has a significant impact on winning, but this puts it into context. A team’s turnover margin correlates with same-season winning at close to a 70% rate. However, while it is predictive of same-season winning, it is highly unpredictable year-to-year, with a correlation of just about 11% year-to-year, meaning from a statistical standpoint, a team’s turnover margin almost might as well be random year-to-year. 

As a result, while turnover margin is predictive of same-season winning, it really isn’t predictive of next year’s winning percentage. I will break this down further later, but I wanted to use this as an example right off the bat.

Another good example is winning percentage itself.

Statistic	Year to Year	Winning %	Next Year Winning %
Win %	25.31%	100.00%	25.31%

Winning percentage correlation is obviously going to be 100% because we are correlating a statistic with itself within the same season, but on a year-to-year basis, winning percentage only correlates with itself at about a 25% rate, meaning winning percentage can’t be used to accurately predict itself on a year-to-year basis. 

It’s well-known the NFL is a parity league that is highly unpredictable every season, but this just puts into context how unpredictable and how tough it is to handicap a team’s future success. Fortunately, there are statistics that are significantly more predictive of future winning percentage than winning percentage itself.

Let’s start with one I’ve already mentioned, yards per play. The below chart breaks out yards per play, yards per play allowed, and yards per play differential. Note: any “allowed” statistics will have a negative correlation with winning percentage because the less a team allows, the more they win.

Statistics	Year to Year	Winning %	Next Year Winning %
YPP	36.08%	50.46%	23.40%
YPPA	42.74%	-31.16%	-15.76%
YPPD	36.10%	67.06%	31.97%

All three statistics are reasonably predictable on a year-to-year basis, with yards per play allowed actually being the most predictable of the three by a slight amount, although offense correlates with winning at a much higher rate and is much more predictive of future winning than defense. This is a theme we’ll see throughout this analysis, offense being more predictive than defense.

In terms of overall differential, this statistic correlates with same season winning slightly less than turnover margin does, but because it is significantly more predictable, it’s significantly more predictive of future winning, correlating with future winning at about a 32% rate, already a significant increase from the 25% predictiveness we get just from looking at winning percentage.

We can do better than that though. Let’s look at another obvious one that would correlate heavily with winning, points, more specifically points per play, points per play allowed, and points per play differential.

Statistic	Year to Year	Winning %	Next Year Winning %
PPP	31.57%	75.24%	34.46%
PPPA	31.41%	-67.81%	-26.27%
PPPD	35.25%	89.95%	38.39%

Right off the bat, we see this correlates with same season winning at a very high rate, which is to be expected, considering points are what decides games. It’s not a perfect 1:1 correlation as teams can win a high percentage of close games in a single season sample size, and, as a result, would have a better record than their point differential would suggest, but point differential is the most predictive statistic of same season winning that we’re going to find. 

It’s also a good predictor of next season’s winning percentage, as this is the best predictor of future winning that we’ve seen yet by far.  However, there are a couple big problems with points per play differential as a statistic. For one, while it is relatively predictive, it’s not all that predictable, predicting itself at just a 35% rate, which gets even worse when you look at points per play and points per play against, which only correlates with itself on a year-to-year basis at about 31.5%. 

That leads into my second big problem with this statistic, that it does a relatively poor job of breaking out offense versus defense, which is likely why points per play and points per play allowed are relatively unpredictable statistics. Return touchdowns by special teams or defense count towards points per play and against opponents’ points per play allowed and field position skews this statistic even more, as good defenses can easily look bad in this statistic if their offense constantly gives them terrible field position to start, and vice versa. 

At first glance, it might seem like a good thing that the gap in predictiveness between points per play and points per play allowed is less than other offensive/defensive statistics, but I think that is a result of neither stat accurately representing the side of the field it is supposed to represent. As we’ll see more going forward, if offense and defense are broken out from each other properly, offense always is significantly more predictive.

The next statistic is a personal favorite of mine, first down rate differential, which includes first down rate and first down rate allowed.

	Year to Year	Winning %	Next Year Winning %
FDR	48.42%	54.65%	29.01%
FDRA	41.08%	-28.13%	-10.27%
FDRD	43.20%	71.75%	33.78%

Right away what stands out is that, across the board, first down rate and its associated statistics are significantly more predictable than anything we’ve seen thus far and, in fact, it is the most predictable statistic year-to-year. It also does a great job separating offensive and defensive performance and, unsurprisingly, there is a significant gap between the predictiveness of offense and defense performance, more so than any statistic we’ve seen thus far. As a result, first down rate correlates with future winning more than yards per play, but yards per play allowed correlates with future winning more than first down rate allowed.

The disappointing thing about first down rate differential is that, while it is significantly more predictable year-to-year and higher correlated with same-season winning than yards per play differential, it isn’t actually more predictive of future winning year-to-year than yards per play differential, at least over the 10-year sample of this study. On top of that, in comparison to points per play differential, it is less predictive of future winning, despite the problems with points per play differential. 

However, there is still a lot to like with first down rate differential and there is a key thing that points per play differential takes into account that first down rate doesn’t that likely explains why it is more predictive. That key thing is special teams, which both yards per play differential and first down rate differential both lack, likely the reason they are not as predictive. Reliable special teams statistics are hard to come by, but one that does a great job is DVOA, Football Outsiders’ signature statistic.

To illustrate this point, I’ve broken out overall, offensive, defensive, and special teams DVOA.

	Year to Year	Winning %	Next Year Winning %
DVOA	41.36%	87.54%	38.67%
DVOA O	41.28%	70.29%	31.10%
DVOA D	39.86%	-48.32%	-18.27%
DVOA ST	38.73%	26.18%	18.62%

Across the board, DVOA does very well, correlating with next year’s winning at about the same rate as points per play differential, while effectively separating out performance in all three phases of the game. The standout here is special teams though, having year-to-year predictability in line with other phases in DVOA and surprisingly correlating with winning and future winning relatively well, given how small a part of the game special teams is. 

In fact, special teams DVOA is actually slightly more predictive of winning than defensive DVOA, at least over the course of this 10-year sample. I would take that with a bit of a grain of salt, but it’s clear that special teams performance has a much bigger impact on winning than most, including myself, would expect. Because of this, I am going to go back and factor special teams more significantly into my season previews.

Given that special teams is likely what makes points per play differential more predictive than first down rate differential, I decided to add special teams DVOA to first down rate differential and see what that does to predictiveness. I played around with different allocations of offensive, defensive, and special teams performance, but I found that 45% offense, 30% defense, and 25% special teams was most predictive, which once again reinforces the importance of special teams.

	Year to Year	Winning %	Next Year Winning %
45/30/25	46.05%	75.55%	39.20%

Just by adding special teams to first down rate differential, we get a statistic that is more predictive than anything we’ve seen so far. We can do better than this though. Since we know that yards per play allowed is more predictive than first down rate allowed, let’s see what happens when we swap yards per play allowed into this hybrid statistic. Once again, I found the 45/30/25 split was most predictive.

	Year to Year	Winning %	Next Year Winning %
45/30/25	47.34%	75.16%	41.50%

This gets us to an impressive number when you consider that winning percentage itself predicts future winning percentage at just a 25% rate. NFL records are very tough to predict year-to-year, but having a statistic that correlates with future winning percentage at a 41.5% rate is a very useful tool for handicapping. 

For the record, I tried swapping in points per play allowed and defensive DVOA and both lowered the predictiveness significantly. Points per play allowed didn’t surprise me because, even though it was predictive, it includes things that the offense is already being given credit for. Defensive DVOA surprised me a little, but it’s not a very predictive statistic year-to-year, so it’s not a huge surprise that including it did not have a positive effect on predictiveness.

Let’s see how each team performed in this metric in 2020.

BUF	2.81%
NO	2.23%
KC	1.68%
SEA	1.55%
BAL	1.44%
IND	1.28%
TB	1.18%
ARZ	0.97%
GB	0.92%
NE	0.73%
LAR	0.61%
SF	0.58%
TEN	0.17%
WAS	0.12%
CLE	0.10%
PIT	0.07%
CHI	0.03%
CAR	-0.04%
LV	-0.16%
DAL	-0.17%
MIA	-0.23%
DET	-0.45%
MIN	-0.46%
NYG	-0.65%
HOU	-0.79%
ATL	-1.10%
PHI	-1.15%
LAC	-1.65%
CIN	-1.91%
DEN	-2.14%
JAX	-2.32%
NYJ	-3.22%

Obviously, this can’t be blindly followed, as 41.5% correlation is still not that high and a lot changes for teams from season to season to affect their performance from year-to-year, but this is a much better base point to start with than win/loss record.

I also wanted to show a few other breakdowns. This one shows yards per play differential broken out into pass offense, pass defense, rush offense, and rush defense.

	Year to Year	Winning %	Next Year Winning %
PYA	35.26%	58.72%	24.34%
PYAA	37.21%	-45.59%	-25.51%
RYA	27.64%	11.24%	7.13%
RYAA	21.94%	-9.14%	-24.38%

Unsurprisingly, offensive statistics are more predictable and predictive than defensive statistics and, also perhaps unsurprisingly, pass statistics are more predictable than rush statistics and by a significant amount.

Let’s take a look further at passing statistics.

	Year to Year	Winning %	Next Year Winning %
PYA	35.26%	58.72%	24.34%
Completion %	45.08%	49.02%	15.91%
TD%	25.31%	60.52%	24.10%
INT %	18.82%	-50.43%	-19.86%

We see that completion percentage is much more predictable year-to-year than any other metric, but yards per play correlates better with winning and next year’s winning. Touchdown rate also correlates with winning and next year’s winning, but is tough to predict on a year-to-year basis. Interception rate is as well, but it’s notable that it’s significantly more predictive than turnover margin, which brings me to my next chart.

	Year to Year	Winning %	Next Year Winning %
INT %	18.82%	-50.43%	-19.86%
Def INT %	11.73%	48.71%	3.65%
Fumbles Lost	2.43%
Fumbles Recovered	-3.23%

While turnover margin itself is very unpredictive, interception rate seems to at least have some predictive value, which makes sense, given that passing offense is what tends to be most consistent year-to-year. Teams who fare well in turnover margin as a result of having a quarterback who had a low interception rate are more likely to see their turnover success continue than teams reliant on defensive takeaways or avoiding fumbles. For fumbles, I didn’t even bother calculating its relationship to winning because of how unpredictable it is year to year. There is no predictive value to a statistic you can’t reasonably predict and fumbles are a perfect example of that.

	Year to Year
1st/2nd	34.96%
3rd/4th	38.75%
1st/2nd vs. 3rd/4th differential	10.52%
1st/2nd allowed	29.71%
3rd/4th allowed	30.81%
1st/2nd vs. 3rd/4th allowed differential	12.22%

This is the last one I want to show for now. I may add more to this later, but this breaks out the year-to-year predictability of first down rate and first down rate allowed between early downs (1st and 2nd) and later downs (3rd and 4th). I didn’t correlate these statistics with winning because it’s obvious that better success on 3rd and 4th down leads to better results on the scoreboard, but it’s worth noting that those downs don’t tend to be any more predictive than early downs and there is minimal, if any, evidence that teams can consistently outperform their 1st and 2nd down performance on 3rd and 4th down year-to-year, as there is very little year-to-year correlation in the differential between early down and later down performance.

Updated: 4/30/21

33. Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Christian Barmore (Alabama)

34. New York Jets – OLB Azeez Ojulari (Georgia)

35. Atlanta Falcons – G Quinn Meinerz (Wisconsin-Whitewater)

36. Miami Dolphins – RB Javonte Williams (North Carolina)

37. Philadelphia Eagles – MLB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (Notre Dame)

38. Cincinnati Bengals – C Creed Humphrey (Oklahoma)

39. Carolina Panthers – OT Teven Jenkins (Oklahoma State)

40. Denver Broncos – OLB Carlos Basham (Wake Forest)

41. Detroit Lions – WR Terrace Marshall (LSU)

42. New York Giants – OLB Ronnie Perkins (Oklahoma)

43. San Francisco 49ers – CB Asante Samuel (Florida State)

44. Dallas Cowboys – S Trevon Moehrig (TCU)

45. Jacksonville Jaguars – TE Pat Freiermuth (Penn State)

46. New England Patriots – WR Elijah Moore (Mississippi)

47. Los Angeles Chargers – CB Kelvin Joseph (Kentucky)

48. Las Vegas Raiders – CB Aaron Robinson (Central Florida)

49. Arizona Cardinals – WR Rondale Moore (Purdue)

50. Miami Dolphins – OT Dillon Radunz (North Dakota State)

51. Washington Football Team – QB Kellen Mond (Texas A&M)

52. Chicago Bears – OT Jalen Mayfield (Michigan)

53. Tennessee Titans – OT Samuel Cosmi (Texas)

54. Indianapolis Colts – OT Spencer Brown (Northern Iowa)

55. Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Kyle Trask (Florida)

56. Seattle Seahawks – CB Tyson Campbell (Georgia)

57. Los Angeles Rams – MLB Nick Bolton (Missouri)

58. Kansas City Chiefs – DE Joseph Ossai (Texas)

59. Cleveland Browns – DT Levi Onwuzurike (Washington)

60. New Orleans Saints – CB Robert Rochell (Central Arkansas)

61. Buffalo Bills – RB Michael Carter (North Carolina)

62. Green Bay Packers – WR Tylan Wallace (Oklahoma State)

63. Kansas City Chiefs – WR Nico Collins (Michigan)

64. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – CB Elijah Molden (Washington)

65. Jacksonville Jaguars – G Wyatt Davis (Ohio State)

66. Minnesota Vikings – S Jevon Holland (Oregon)

67. Houston Texans – C Josh Myers (Ohio State)

68. Atlanta Falcons – DE Patrick Jones (Pittsburgh)

69. Cincinnati Bengals – MLB Jabril Cox (LSU)

70. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Ifeatu Melifonwu (Syracuse)

71. Denver Broncos – OLB Chris Rumph (Duke)

72. Detroit Lions – MLB Baron Browning (Ohio State)

73. Carolina Panthers – DT Milton Williams (Louisiana Tech)

74. Washington Football Team – OT Liam Eichenburg (Notre Dame)

75. Dallas Cowboys – TE Tommy Tremble (Notre Dame)

76. New York Giants – G Jackson Carmen (Clemson)

77. Los Angeles Chargers – RB Trey Sermon (Ohio State)

78. Minnesota Vikings – DT Daviyon Nixon (Iowa)

79. Las Vegas Raiders – CB Benjamin St-Juste (Minnesota)

80. Las Vegas Raiders – WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (USC)

81. Miami Dolphins – S Jamar Johnson (Indiana)

82. Washington Football Team – WR D’Wayne Eskridge (Western Michigan)

83. Chicago Bears – CB Paulson Adebo (Stanford)

84. Dallas Cowboys – DE Rashad Weaver (Pittsburgh)

85. Tennessee Titans – WR Dyami Brown (North Carolina)

86. Minnesota Vikings – CB Ambry Thomas (Michigan)

87. Pittsburgh Steelers – OT Walker Little (Stanford)

88. Los Angeles Rams – OLB Jordan Smith (UAB)

89. Cleveland Browns – MLB Chazz Surratt (North Carolina)

90. Minnesota Vikings – DE Dayo Odeyingbo (Vanderbilt)

91. Cleveland Browns – WR Josh Palmer (Tennessee)

92. Green Bay Packers – OT Brady Christensen (BYU)

93. Buffalo Bills – TE Hunter Long (Boston College)

94. Baltimore Ravens – OT James Hudson (Cincinnati)

95. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – RB Kenneth Gainwell (Memphis)

96. New England Patriots – MLB Dylan Moses (Alabama)

97. Los Angeles Chargers – G Aaron Banks (Notre Dame)

98. New Orleans Saints – S Richie Grant (UCF)

99. Dallas Cowboys – CB Shakur Brown (Michigan State)

100. Tennessee Titans – TE Brevin Jordan (Miami)

101. Detroit Lions – QB Davis Mills (Stanford)

102. San Francisco 49ers – WR Amari Rodgers (Clemson)

103. Los Angeles Rams – C Landon Dickerson (Alabama)

104. Baltimore Ravens – WR Anthony Schwartz (Auburn)

105. New Orleans Saints – DT Alim McNeil (NC State)

Updated 4/29/21

1. Jacksonville Jaguars – QB Trevor Lawrence (Clemson)

Unless I hear otherwise, I expect Trevor Lawrence to be a Jacksonville Jaguar, as everyone else does. One of the most polished and complete draft prospects of the past few decades, Lawrence is an obvious choice for the Jaguars, even with other good quarterback prospects on the board. With as much financial flexibility and draft capital as any team in the league over the next few off-seasons, the Jaguars could get a lot better in a hurry if Lawrence is as advertised.

2. New York Jets – QB Zach Wilson (BYU)

By trading Sam Darnold, the Jets confirmed months of expectations that this pick would be a quarterback. The general consensus seems to be that Zach Wilson will be that quarterback and the 49ers’ willingness to trade three first round picks to move up to 3 suggests that it’s a bit of an open secret around the league who the Jets are planning on selecting. This is another one where I’m going with the consensus unless I hear otherwise as the Jets have no real reason to be secretive about this selection.

3. San Francisco 49ers – QB Mac Jones (Alabama)

With most expecting Lawrence and Wilson to go 1 and 2, the draft officially starts at 3, where the 49ers are expected to take a quarterback after giving up a king’s ransom to move up from 12 to 3 to put themselves in range for a top quarterback prospect. Who that quarterback prospect will be is the big question, as arguments can be made for Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones here. I suspect Jones would be rated the worst of the three if you polled decision makers around the league, but the 49ers have always valued players differently under Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch and have never been shy about being aggressive to get their guy, even if that means paying a price no other team would have paid. 

Shanahan values accuracy above anything and in that aspect Jones is a level ahead of both Lance and Fields and is arguably the most accurate quarterback in the draft outside of Lawrence, so it makes sense that Shanahan would feel the need to be aggressive to move up and get him. Jones doesn’t have the arm strength or the mobility of the other top quarterback prospects, but those are secondary attributes for Shanahan. He may see Jones as his next Matt Ryan, a quarterback who he guided to an MVP season and a Super Bowl appearance as the offensive coordinator in Atlanta. Fields or Lance are still possibilities, but for the 49ers to give up what they did to move up, they have to be excited about someone and Jones’ accuracy is likely to be the most exciting attribute to Shanahan of the three quarterbacks.

The other question here is what will happen with Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers’ current quarterback. Garoppolo is still a starting caliber quarterback and the 49ers decision to move up for a quarterback seems like more about a desire to get a young high upside player on a cheap rookie deal, rather than paying significant money to a quarterback in Garoppolo who is injury prone and may have reached his ceiling as a player. 

Reports say the 49ers are asking for too much for Jimmy Garoppolo, but without many obvious suitors in a trade, it’s very possible that asking price comes down on draft day. Alternatively, the 49ers could keep Garoppolo past draft day, see how Jones develops, and then potentially move Garoppolo before the season or during the season to a desperate team who loses a quarterback to a season ending injury. I’ve had versions of this mock draft where the 49ers traded him, but ultimately in this one, I couldn’t find an obvious place to send him at a reasonable price that the 49ers would accept, so he stays a 49er for the time being.

4. Denver Broncos (TRADE) – QB Trey Lance (North Dakota State)

The Broncos are one potential team for Garoppolo’s services, but they have other ideas in this mock draft. The Falcons could stay put here and take a quarterback of the future to develop behind Matt Ryan or stud tight end Kyle Pitts to give Matt Ryan another weapon, but it sounds like they’re willing to move down for the right price, which would make sense because their biggest needs are on defense and on the interior of the offensive line and they would be reaching significantly to address either of those needs here at 4. 

The Broncos sit at 9, probably out of range for a top quarterback prospect, but close enough that they wouldn’t have to give up the farm to move up and they have the kind of roster around the quarterback that suggests they might be a quarterback away from being a real contender. Drew Lock has shown some flashes in two years in the league, but ultimately is one of the least inspiring starting quarterback options in the league and either Trey Lance or Justin Fields would represent a significant upgrade.

The Broncos wouldn’t have to give up multiple future first round picks to get this trade done like the 49ers did to move up from 12 to 3. Instead, they give up one future first round pick, as well as their 3rd round pick this year, and they throw in Drew Lock, who wouldn’t be needed in Denver with a new young franchise quarterback in town, but could be a worthwhile developmental backup for the Falcons, who do need to start planning for the future after Matt Ryan and currently only have Matt Schaub, who is even older than Ryan, as their backup quarterback. 

Which one of Lance or Fields the Broncos prefers is unknown, but I would guess that Lance’s raw physical tools would be most appealing to John Elway, who may see a lot of himself in Lance’s game. If he can be as good as advertised, this team could be a contender very quickly and they have the infrastructure around the quarterback that Lance wouldn’t have to do it all himself as a rookie. If they like Lance or Fields enough, that is worth the price to move up, for a team without many pressing needs. Lance would compete immediately with stopgap quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and could be a week one starter.

5. Cincinnati Bengals – WR Jamarr Chase (LSU)

The Bengals benefit the most from the run on quarterbacks as they have last year’s #1 pick Joe Burrow under center already and can sit back and likely have their choice of the top non-quarterbacks in the draft at 5. I’ve had offensive tackle as a bigger need than pass catcher in the past, so I’ve given the Bengals Penei Sewell when available, but the addition of Riley Reiff in free agency changes my thinking here. Reiff is only on a one-year deal and could move inside to guard, so they still need offensive tackle help, but it’s not as pressing of a need anymore and can be addressed later in the draft. 

Meanwhile, the Bengals did nothing to upgrade their receiving corps this off-season and are badly hurting for pass catching options behind Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. I’ve had this between Chase and Kyle Pitts in the past and even had Pitts here with my last pick, but it’s sounding like the traditional position value with Chase is going to win out. Pitts is a truly rare tight end position, but Chase is one of the best wide receiver prospects in years as well.

6. Miami Dolphins – OT Penei Sewell (Oregon)

The Dolphins might have telegraphed this pick by trading guard Ereck Flowers to Washington in a salary dump. Sewell isn’t a guard, but he could play tackle and push Robert Hunt inside to guard. With Chase looking like the pick at 5 to the Bengals, the Dolphins could easily be targeting an offensive line upgrade. They started three rookie offensive linemen last season, but still need help upfront after ranking well below average as a group.

7. New England Patriots (TRADE) – QB Justin Fields (Ohio State)

The Patriots are another team that could make a move for Jimmy Garoppolo on or before draft day, but they’re unlikely to want to give up a significant draft pick to acquire a quarterback as highly paid as Garoppolo. Instead, it’s likely they’ll find a cheaper quarterback prospect through the draft. They’re unlikely to have one of the first round quarterbacks fall into their laps at 15, so they’d likely wait until day two to select their quarterback in that situation, but if one of the top quarterbacks falls out of the top-6 or so and it’s a quarterback they have a high grade on, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them move up to get him. 

After their free agency splurge, the Patriots don’t have many pressing needs and adding a quarterback on a cheap rookie deal will allow them to continue being aggressive in free agency going forward and to keep the talented players they sign for the long-term. The Patriots won’t give up the farm to move up, but they won’t have to just to move up from 15 to 7. In fact, by the trade value chart, the Patriots would only have to give up their second round pick to get this done. 

Trades up for quarterbacks tend to be much more expensive, but the Patriots could still move cornerback Stephon Gilmore in a trade to acquire another premium draft pick, with Gilmore going into the final year of his contract and wanting a top price extension, something the Patriots are unlikely to give a cornerback in his 30s, especially given that cornerback is arguably their deepest position. Gilmore was the Defensive Player of the Year in 2019 and will still have a significant trade market after a down 2020, so moving him in a trade that enables the Patriots to move up and draft a quarterback would make sense. 

The Cardinals stand out as a team with enough cap space to add Gilmore and give him a significant extension and with the need for a top flight cornerback to potentially push them over the edge as a contender. The Patriots could acquire the Cardinals’ second round pick for Gilmore and essentially double the price needed to move up from 15 and 7 and with three picks in the fourth round they could easily throw one of those in as well. 

The Patriots don’t trade up much on draft day, but they’ve done it before for guys they really like and this is a way they could do it at a reasonable price, without mortgaging the rest of this year’s draft or giving away a first round pick next year. Fields would compete immediately for the starting job with Cam Newton, who the Patriots would owe significantly less money to if he rides the pine all next season, and Fields would likely make starts at some point as a rookie, even if not week one. For the Lions, the rationale for wanting to move down is obvious as they have pressing needs all over the field and should be looking to accumulate as many picks as possible. If a top quarterback prospect falls to them at 7, they’ll have the opportunity to do just that, with teams looking to jump the Panthers for a quarterback.

8. Carolina Panthers – TE Kyle Pitts (Florida)

The Panthers are still in the market for a quarterback, but are unlikely to be aggressive and trade up for a quarterback, after trading a second round pick next year to acquire Sam Darnold and attempt to rehabilitate the 2018 3rd overall pick’s career after his first three seasons were spent in a disastrous situation with the Jets. With all of the top quarterback prospects gone, the Panthers will focus elsewhere. 

Fortunately, with five quarterbacks going in the top-7, the Panthers have arguably the top non-quarterback in the draft in tight end Kyle Pitts fall into their laps at 8 and he happens to fill a massive need as well. Pitts could go earlier than this and it would be a surprise to see the Panthers pass on him if he’s available and the quarterbacks aren’t. Whoever their future quarterback is, he will be helped immensely by having one of the top tight end prospects in decades to throw to and it’s hard to find a team in bigger need of a team. Panthers tight ends caught 27 passes total in 2020. Pitts would have a good chance to double that total by himself as a rookie.

9. Atlanta Falcons (TRADE) – CB Patrick Surtain (Alabama)

The Falcons’ trade down works to perfection as they still have their pick of the top defensive players in the draft, with only offensive players off the board at this point. It’s not a strong defensive class at the top, but Surtain has a good case to be the first defensive player off the board and he would fill a significant need for the Falcons, who need to add a third cornerback to go with Isaiah Oliver and AJ Terrell, two young highly drafted cornerbacks who have been inconsistent to this point in their career.

10. Detroit Lions (TRADE) – WR Devonta Smith (Alabama)

The Lions originally moved down from 15 to 7, picking up several extra picks to facilitate the Patriots’ move up for a quarterback, but similar to the Dolphins, the Lions could use some of those extra picks to move back up for a player they have their eyes on. In this scenario, that player is Devonta Smith, who would fill a massive need for the Lions at wide receiver and almost definitely would be gone by the 15th pick, possibly 11th to the Giants one pick after this. 

The Cowboys are likely targeting top cornerback prospect Patrick Surtain at 10, but if he’s not available, I could see them moving down, accumulating extra picks, and picking another defensive player later in the first round. The Lions give up a 3rd and 4th round pick to make their move up, but considering they got two second round picks and a 4th to move down from 7 to 15, that’s a very reasonable price to move back up and take the player they easily could have selected at 7. 

11. New York Giants – G Rashawn Slater (Northwestern)

While Sewell is the best pure left tackle in the draft, there is an argument that Slater is going to be the best offensive lineman from this draft class. Slater’s issue is he lacks the ideal size for a left tackle, but he could move inside to guard or center and be a perennial Pro-Bowl caliber player at that position. After using a first and third round pick on an offensive tackle in last year’s draft, the interior is a much bigger need for the Giants. Slater would be an immediate upgrade at either center or right guard for a team that needs to get tougher upfront. 

12. Philadelphia Eagles – WR Jaylen Waddle (Alabama)

The Eagles have had a wild road to ending up with the 12th pick. Originally picking 6th, the Eagles reportedly had the opportunity to trade spots with the Dolphins who were picking 3rd, but opted against it when they learned that their target, Zach Wilson, would likely go one pick earlier to the Jets. With Wilson unavailable and the Eagles seemingly uninterested in any of the top quarterback prospects, the Eagles instead committed to starting Jalen Hurts at quarterback in 2021 and facilitated the 49ers’ trade up from 12th to 3rd with the Dolphins, allowing the Dolphins to only have to move down to 6 like they would have if the Eagles had moved up to 3 and acquiring a future first round pick from Miami to move from 6 down to the 49ers’ previous spot at 12. 

The Eagles could have filled a big need with one of the top pass catchers in the draft at 6, but they have pressing needs all over the field, so it was smart of them to move down and accumulate another first round pick next year, as this is more than a one-year rebuild. They also will still be able to add a pass catcher at 12 if Jaylen Waddle is still available, which he has a good chance to be. The Eagles used several draft picks on wide receivers last year, including first round pick Jalen Reagor, but anyone who watched them this season knows they still badly need help at the position, with no pass catcher topping 539 receiving yards and Reagor being the only one on the team resembling a long-term starting option.

13. Los Angeles Chargers – OT Christian Darrisaw (Virginia Tech)

The Chargers may try to trade up for Penei Sewell if he starts to slip because left tackle is their biggest need and Sewell is the consensus top player at that position in the draft, but if they can’t move up, Christian Darrisaw seems like an obvious decision for the Chargers at 13. Left tackle is a glaring hole for this team and as the #2 offensive tackle in the draft class, Darrisaw would be a solid value in the top-15. He could give Justin Herbert and the Chargers a long-term blindside protector for years to come.

14. Minnesota Vikings – DE Kwity Paye (Michigan)

It’s obvious the Vikings need defensive line help, as they didn’t have a player who finished the season with the team who had more than 3.5 sacks on the year and were also constantly blown away by the run. They’ll be stouter against the run with Dalvin Tomlinson coming in as a free agent and Michael Pierce coming back after an opt out and their edge rush will be better with Danielle Hunter coming back from an injury that cost him all of 2020, but they still desperately need a starting edge defender opposite Hunter. Paye can be that guy and has the size to move inside and rush the passer from the interior in sub packages as well.

15. Dallas Cowboys (TRADE) – CB Jaycee Horn (South Carolina)

The Cowboys miss out on top cornerback prospect Patrick Surtain at 10, but they are able to move down, accumulate extra picks, and still take the #2 cornerback in the class at 15. The Cowboys had one of the worst cornerback groups in the league last season and, with Chidobe Awuzie signing with the Bengals, things are even worse at the position now. If Horn happens to be off the board by this point, the Cowboys would then likely turn their attention to the defensive end position, which is also a position of significant need.

16. Washington Football Team (TRADE) – MLB Micah Parsons (Penn State)

Micah Parsons is a potential top-10 pick, but off-the-field concerns and offensive players being pushed up could cause Parsons to fall on draft day. If he falls out of the top-15, I could see a team making a move up for him. The Cardinals don’t need him, having used their first round pick on linebacker Isaiah Simmons in last year’s draft, but they do need extra picks, having traded away their 2nd round pick for Stephon Gilmore, their 3rd round pick for Rodney Hudson, and their 4th round pick to complete last year’s DeAndre Hopkins trade. Washington overpays a little bit by the trade value chart by giving up a third round pick, but, if Parsons is highly rated enough, Washington will see that as worth it, especially given that they have an extra third round pick from trade of Trent Williams to the 49ers.

17. Las Vegas Raiders – G Alijah Vera-Tucker (USC)

The Raiders inexplicably dismantled their offensive line this off-season, initially cutting center Rodney Hudson, right guard Gabe Jackson, and right tackle Trent Brown, highly paid offensive linemen who are part of a line that has been dominant when healthy, before realizing that they could get trade value for all three, sending them to the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Patriots respectively for draft picks. The Raiders added some cheaper replacements this off-season, but could use help at every spot except left tackle. A versatile lineman like Alijah Vera-Tucker would make a lot of sense in the middle of the first round. Guard will probably be his best spot in the NFL, but he would fill an immediate need at right guard and profiles as an above average starter for years to come.

18. Miami Dolphins – DE Zaven Collins (Tulsa)

The Dolphins are thinner at edge defender after getting rid of Kyle Van Noy and Andre Branch this off-season and, after not replacing them, it’s likely they are planning on using one of their high draft picks on the position. Using their 18th overall pick on an edge defender would make a lot of sense because, though it’s a pressing need, it wouldn’t make sense to reach for an edge defender at 6 and there figure to be several options that would make sense around 18. Collins would fit well as a tweener type player who can play both defensive end and outside linebacker, similar to Van Noy and others who have played that role over the years on the New England Patriots’ defense, which has largely inspired the Dolphins’ defensive scheme. 

19. Arizona Cardinals (TRADE) – S Trevon Moehrig (TCU)

I already mentioned earlier I have the Cardinals trading their 2nd round pick for Stephon Gilmore, but that isn’t the only secondary upgrade the Cardinals need as they lack a consistent safety next to Budda Baker. Trevon Moehrig is the top safety in the draft class and could make a big difference from day one. He’d be a slight reach at 16, even as the top safety in the draft, but if the Cardinals can move down, acquire a third round pick, and draft Moehrig at 19, I think they’ll see that as a success. With JJ Watt added in free agency, Gilmore and Moehrig being added through the draft and draft day trades, and Chandler Jones expected back from injury, this would be a much improved Cardinals defense in 2021, to pair with an emerging offense led by Kyler Murray in his third season in the league.

20. Chicago Bears – CB Greg Newsome (Northwestern)

The Bears had to cut Kyle Fuller for financial reasons and downgraded significantly by replacing him with Desmond Trufant. This hurts a cornerback group that already was a position of concern. The Bears could address this position early in the draft. Newsome is a late rising prospect who seems likely to go in the first round. He could play immediately in three cornerback sets with Trufant and last year’s second round pick Jaylon Johnson.

21. Indianapolis Colts – OT Teven Jenkins (Oklahoma State)

Philip Rivers wasn’t the Colts’ only significant retirement this off-season, as long-time left tackle Anthony Castonzo retired as well, leaving a gaping hole on an offensive line that has been one of the best in the league over the past few years due to their continuity. The Colts will likely target Castonzo’s replacement in the draft. Teven Jenkins is an option that is likely to be available when they pick at 21. As long as the Colts have a first round grade on him, I’d be surprised if they passed on him if he was available.

22. Tennessee Titans – CB Caleb Farley (Virginia Tech)

Edge defender was the Titans’ biggest need coming into the off-season and I didn’t expect them to be able to address it significantly in free agency because of their cap situation. They signed Bud Dupree to a big contract, but only because they gutted their cornerback depth. Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler were both released and Desmond King wasn’t retained, leaving 2020 2nd round pick Kristian Fulton and cheap veteran free agent additions Janoris Jenkins and Kevin Johnson as their top-3 cornerbacks. Now cornerback is their biggest need and one they could easily address in the first round.

23. New York Jets – OLB Azeez Ojulari (Georgia)

Carl Lawson was a big addition in free agency, but the Jets still have their long standing edge defender need, as they haven’t had an edge defender with more than 8 sacks since 2013 and last season they didn’t have one with more than 3.5 sacks. Oweh can step in immediately and play significant snaps as an option opposite Lawson. Adding both Lawson and Ojulari this off-season would go a long way towards improving their pass rush.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers – RB Najee Harris (Alabama)

Back-to-back running backs off the board, as the Jets and Steelers are arguably the two neediest teams at the running back position and have picks back-to-back. Steelers starting running back James Conner signed with the Cardinals this off-season and backups Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland averaged 3.32 yards per carry and 3.42 yards per carry respectively in 2020. The Steelers are almost definitely going to use an early pick on the position. The smoke connecting them to Najee Harris seems real.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Christian Barmore (Alabama)

The Jaguars added Malcom Brown in a trade with the Saints, but other than that didn’t make any additions at the defensive tackle position this off-season, so they will likely turn to the draft for help. Taven Bryan and Davon Hamilton are an underwhelming starting duo and Brown is their only notable reserve. Barmore could push to be a starter as a rookie and has more long-term upside than any of the Jaguars’ other options.

26. Cleveland Browns – MLB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (Notre Dame)

The Browns have a decent linebacking corps, but they lack a clear every down linebacker in the group, so if Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah falls to them, I would expect them to pull the trigger. The Browns have bigger needs on defense like defensive end, defensive tackle, and cornerback, but Owusu-Koramoah is too good of a value to pass on and would make this defense a lot better if he can be as advertised.

27. Baltimore Ravens – WR Rashod Bateman (Minnesota)

The Ravens desperately tried to add a wide receiver in free agency, but ended up having to settle for Sammy Watkins on a one-year deal. He isn’t a long-term option, so I would expect them to use an early pick on a long-term option at the position. With the Ravens now possessing two first round picks after the Orlando Brown trade, it would be a surprise to not see them use one of those two picks on a wide receiver, especially since they’ll have many options who will fit the range at the end of the first round. Bateman would be a good complement as a bigger bodied receiver (6-2 208) to the smaller, speedier Marquise Brown. 

28. New Orleans Saints – WR Kadarius Toney (Florida)

The Saints were thin at wide receiver even before making Emmanuel Sanders a cap casualty. With Sanders gone and no significant replacement being added, the Saints lack any consistent wide receivers behind Michael Thomas. Whoever their quarterback will be in 2021 in their first year without Drew Brees, they will need to get him more pass catchers to increase his chances of success.

29. Green Bay Packers – WR Terrace Marshall (LSU)

The Jordan Love pick didn’t make any sense at the time and looks even worse in hindsight, as the Packers were legitimately a play or two from making it back to the Super Bowl, while Love couldn’t even win the primary backup quarterback job as a rookie. The Packers easily could have taken a player instead of Love that would have put them over the top last season and Love’s lack of development makes the situation even worse. Wide receiver and middle linebacker remain obvious positions of need as they were last year, after the Packers failed to address them in free agency, so perhaps the Packers will learn from their mistake last year and address these positions in the draft. Taking a wide receiver like Marshall would be a better value than any middle linebacker available at this point.

30. Buffalo Bills – RB Travis Etienne (Clemson)

The Bills don’t run the ball much, but that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t benefit from an upgrade at the running back position, especially one like Etienne who can be a threat in the passing game as well. The Bills current running backs are not only mediocre runners, but also don’t contribute in the passing game. Etienne would fit well for a team that doesn’t have many needs and can afford to make a “luxury” pick like this.

31. Baltimore Ravens – OLB Jaelan Phillips (Miami)

The Ravens acquired this pick in their trade of Orlando Brown to the Chiefs. The Ravens could use this pick on Brown’s replacement, but it sounds like they will be signing veteran Alejandro Villaneuva to be a short-term replacement, so they won’t be locked into the offensive tackle position and could address a different need. The Ravens had one of the deepest and most talented edge defender groups in the league last year, but few teams could lose both Yannick Ngakoue and Matt Judon and not need to replenish talent at the position. Phillips could have a big role as a rookie.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – OLB Carlos Basham (Wake Forest)

The Buccaneers don’t need much of anything after bringing back every key player from a well-rounded Super Bowl Champion, but they could use better depth at the edge defender position behind Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre Paul, especially with the latter going into his age 32 season and his contract season. Basham could play a rotational role as a rookie before taking over as a starter in 2022.

33. Jacksonville Jaguars – CB Eric Stokes (Georgia)

The Jaguars signed Shaq Griffin in free agency and now have a talented young cornerback duo with Griffin and last year’s first round pick CJ Henderson, but they need a better third cornerback to go with them.

34. New York Jets – RB Javonte Williams (North Carolina)

Aside from Tevin Coleman, the Jets didn’t make a running back addition in free agency this off-season, so they still have one of the thinnest running back groups in the league, with Coleman likely to be the starter if the season started today. Williams has significantly more upside and could be a feature back for this team long-term. With multiple extra picks in the first three rounds of the draft, expect the Jets to be one of the first teams to draft a running back this year.

35. Atlanta Falcons – G Quinn Meinerz (Wisconsin-Whitewater)

The Falcons lost a pair of starters on the offensive line this off-season in James Carpenter and Alex Mack. Last year’s third round pick Matt Hennessy could take over at either of those positions, but the Falcons still would need one more starter. Meinerz could be a week one starter at left guard.

36. Miami Dolphins – WR Elijah Moore (Mississippi)

The Dolphins added Will Fuller in free agency, but only on a one-year deal and even with him on board the Dolphins still need better wide receiver depth behind him and Devante Parker. If the Dolphins can’t get Jamarr Chase at 6, they may opt to address the position

37. Philadelphia Eagles – MLB Jamin Davis (Kentucky)

The Eagles are pretty thin at linebacker and have room for a rookie to play significant snaps. Cox could develop into a much needed every down middle linebacker for this team long-term.

38. Cincinnati Bengals – C Creed Humphrey (Oklahoma)

The interior of the Bengals’ line is a much bigger need than offensive tackle now than Riley Reiff has been added. Humphrey could be a starter at any of the three interior positions for the Bengals.

39. Carolina Panthers – OT Dillon Radunz (North Dakota State)

The Panthers retained stud right tackle Taylor Moton with the franchise tag this off-season, but left tackle Russell Okung wasn’t brought back, leaving the Panthers with 2019 2nd round pick Greg Little, who has struggled mightily in limited action thus far in his career, penciled in as the starting left tackle right now. Little is not a reliable option and could kick inside to guard if the Panthers draft an alternative, something they could easily do early in the draft.

40. Denver Broncos – OLB Jayson Oweh (Penn State)

Von Miller will be back from injury in 2021, but he’s highly paid and now going into his age 32 season, so he might not be around long-term. The Broncos need to add someone in the draft who could be a long-term starter at the position. Oweh would provide valuable rotational depth in the meantime.

41. Detroit Lions – CB Kelvin Joseph (Kentucky)

The Lions had arguably the worst cornerbacks in the league last season and they haven’t addressed the position this off-season aside from signing Quinton Dunbar to a one-year deal. Second year player Jeff Okudah should be better in his second season, but the Lions need to add at least one more talented young cornerback in the mix.

42. New York Giants – OLB Ronnie Perkins (Oklahoma)

Leonard Williams was the only Giants player with more than 4 sacks last season and he plays a lot on the interior, so the Giants still have their long standing edge defender need. They didn’t make any significant additions in free agency, so they’ll have to add at least one player at this position early in the draft.

43. San Francisco 49ers – CB Asante Samuel (Florida State)

The 49ers retained most of their free agent cornerbacks and could go into next season with a top cornerback trio of Emmanuel Mosley, Jason Verrett, and K’Waun Williams, but they still need help at the position because their depth is limited and none of those players were retained for longer than two years, with Verrett and Williams only being signed to one-year deals.

44. Dallas Cowboys – DE Gregory Rousseau (Miami)

With Tyrone Crawford retiring and Aldon Smith signing with the Seahawks, Randy Gregory is the Cowboys’ only consistent edge defender behind DeMarcus Lawrence and Gregory has proven to be incredibly unreliable in the past, so they will almost certainly look to improve this position group in the draft.

45. Jacksonville Jaguars – TE Pat Freiermuth (Penn State)

The Jaguars are starting the underwhelming Tyler Eifert at tight end right now because they don’t have another good option, so I would expect them to address this position in the draft. This isn’t a good tight end class outside of Kyle Pitts, but Freiermuth is expected to be the first tight end off the board after Pitts and would be a good option in the second round. He could push to start as a rookie.

46. Detroit Lions (TRADE) –  DE Joe Tyron (Washington)

The Lions retained Romeo Okwara in free agency and will get Trey Flowers back healthy in 2021, but the Lions could still use more pass rush help on the edge, so defensive end is yet another position the Lions can address on draft day.

47. Los Angeles Chargers – CB Aaron Robinson (Central Florida)

Casey Hayward struggled in 2020, but his release left the Chargers thin at the cornerback position, even after Michael Davis was retained in free agency. They need another starter to go with Davis and Chris Harris, who is going into his age 32 season and the final year of his contract in 2021.

48. Las Vegas Raiders – WR Rondale Moore (Purdue)

The Raiders used a first and a third round pick on wide receivers last year, but neither did much as a rookie. Nelson Agholor, who led the Raiders’ wide receivers in receiving yards, is no longer with the team and the position group is very unsettled with him gone. I would expect them to add another developmental option through the draft at some point and Moore is a good value at this point.

49. Detroit Lions (TRADE) – MLB Nick Bolton (Missouri)

The Lions need help basically all over their defense and their linebacking corps is no exception, especially with Jarrad Davis signing with the Jets in free agency this off-season. Bolton would have the opportunity to play a lot right away and could easily develop into an above average every down linebacker for this team.

50. Miami Dolphins – DT Levi Onwuzurike (Washington)

Defensive tackle isn’t the Dolphins’ biggest need, but they could use more talent at the position and Onwuzurike is a good value at this point. He could compete for a role as a rookie and develop into a starter long-term.

51. Washington Football Team – QB Kellen Mond (Texas A&M)

Washington signed Ryan Fitzpatrick in free agency this off-season, but he’s only a short-term option in his age 39 season and was not promised the starting job. They have some internal options in Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen, but neither of them seems like a long-term franchise quarterback, so they’ll look to add a quarterback prospect they like on draft day. They’re not in position to add one of the top quarterback prospects in the first round, Kellen Mond is an option that could make sense after the first.

52. Chicago Bears – OT Jalen Mayfield (Michigan)

The Bears had a strong offensive line a few years ago, but they haven’t been able to keep that group together and struggled upfront last season, particularly on the right side where right tackle Bobby Massie missed significant time with injury. Massie was let go ahead of his age 32 season in 2021 for salary reasons and the Bears may be targeting his replacement early in the draft.

53. Tennessee Titans – OT Samuel Cosmi (Texas)

After losing Jack Conklin in free agency last off-season, the Titans used a first round pick on Isaiah Wilson and expected him to start long-term at right tackle, but he wound up being one of the bigger busts in recent memory and is no longer with the team. The Titans will almost definitely use another relatively high pick on the position. They’re in even bigger need of a right tackle now with veteran Dennis Kelly, who filled in as the starter last season, no longer on the roster.

54. Indianapolis Colts – WR Tylan Wallace (Oklahoma State)

TY Hilton was retained in free agency, but only on a one-year deal and he’ll be in his age 32 season as well. I expect the Colts to add another developmental wide receiver through the draft. Wallace could be a long-term #1 wide receiver.

55. Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Kyle Trask (Florida)

2021 seems like it could be Ben Roethlisberger’s final season as his new contract voids after this season and his play left something to be desired in 2020. Now in his age 39 season, the Steelers need a long-term option behind him. Backup quarterback Mason Rudolph was a third round pick in 2018, but has yet to develop into that replacement.

56. Seattle Seahawks – CB Tyson Campbell (Georgia)

The Seahawks lost both Quinton Dunbar and Shaq Griffin in free agency this off-season and only signed Akhello Witherspoon and Pierre Desir as replacements, so I expect them to address this position early in the draft. Campbell has the size the Seahawks look for at the position.

57. Los Angeles Rams – OLB Chris Rumph (Duke)

The Rams managed to keep Leonard Floyd in free agency, despite their terrible cap situation, but they could still use a long-term upgrade opposite him. Rumph could play a big role as a rookie.

58. Kansas City Chiefs – DE Joseph Ossai (Texas)

The Chiefs have retooled their offensive line this off-season, so now their biggest need by far is defensive end, as no other edge defender besides Frank Clark had more than 3 sacks last season and the Chiefs had a below average 32 sacks as a team, despite playing with frequent leads. The Chiefs don’t have a first round pick anymore, but they could address this need in the second round.

59. Cleveland Browns – CB Robert Rochell (Central Arkansas)

The Browns should have better cornerback play in 2021 with Greedy Williams expected back from injury and Troy Hill signed in free agency to form a talented trio with Denzel Ward. Williams is a significant injury risk though and the Browns really lack depth at the position beyond their top-3. Without many pressing needs, expect the Browns to target cornerbacks early in the draft.

60. New Orleans Saints – S Jevon Holland (Oregon)

The Saints somehow were able to keep stud safety Marcus Williams with the franchise tag, despite their terrible cap situation, but keeping him on a long-term deal is another story and, even if they do, they still need a long-term solution at the other safety spot, where the declining Malcolm Jenkins is heading into his age 34 season. Expect them to add a young safety at some point in the draft.

61. Buffalo Bills – DE Payton Turner (Houston)

The Bills used a 2nd round pick on defensive end AJ Epenesa in last year’s draft, but their top-3 defensive ends by snaps played in 2020 were all over the age of 30 and their overall edge rush was disappointing, so they need to add more youth and talent to this group. 

62. Green Bay Packers – OT Alex Leatherwood (Alabama)

The Packers had maybe the deepest offensive line in the league last season, but they have lost several linemen in free agency this off-season and also have stud left tackle David Bakhtiari uncertain for the start of next season after tearing his ACL last December. The Packers will look to add depth in the draft and Leatherwood’s versatility will likely be very intriguing to the Packers.

63. Kansas City Chiefs – MLB Baron Browning (Ohio State)

Linebacker has been the achilles heel of the Chiefs’ defense for years. The position group is still unsettled, so if there is someone available that they think can play every down for them, they could easily pull the trigger.

64. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – CB Elijah Molden (Washington)

Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean are a talented young cornerback duo, but the Buccaneers could use a better third cornerback. Molden is one of the best pure slot cornerbacks in the draft and would be a great fit if he was still available at this point in the draft.

65. Jacksonville Jaguars – G Wyatt Davis (Ohio State)

The Jaguars could use an upgrade over right guard AJ Cann, who is owed a non-guaranteed 5 million in the final year of his contract in 2021. Davis is one of the top guard prospects in the draft and the connection to Jacksonville is obvious, with the man who recruited him to Ohio State, Urban Meyer, now the head coach of the Jaguars.

66. New York Jets – WR Nico Collins (Michigan)

The Jets signed Corey Davis in free agency and will use him, Denzel Mims, and Jamison Crowder in three wide receiver sets, but Crowder is in the final year of his contract, so they could add insurance for him in a good wide receiver draft.

67. Houston Texans – C Josh Myers (Ohio State)

The Texans made center Nick Martin a cap casualty, which made sense because he’s an underwhelming starter who was owed 7.5 million, but they have yet to replace him. Myers could compete to start as a rookie and has the versatility to kick to guard as well if needed.

68. Atlanta Falcons – DE Patrick Jones (Pittsburgh)

The Falcons seemingly have a perpetual need for pass rushers, somehow not topping 39 sacks in a season since 2004. Last season, the Falcons managed just 29 sacks, as free agent acquisition Dante Fowler was a massive disappointment and former first round pick bust Takkarist McKinley was cut midway through the season. The Falcons are locked into some of Fowler’s salary next season, so they’ll have to hope he rebounds, but even if he does, the Falcons will still need help opposite him. The Falcons didn’t address the position in free agency, so they’ll have to use an early draft pick or two on the position. 

69. Cincinnati Bengals – MLB Jabril Cox (LSU)

The Bengals definitely need more help on offense than defense, but they’ll need to address their linebacking corps at some point. Bolton projects as a three down linebacker long-term and could play a significant role even as a rookie for a Bengals team that didn’t have a true every down linebacker last season.

70. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Ifeatu Melifonwu (Syracuse)

The Eagles made a big splash addition at cornerback last off-season when they added Darius Slay, but the rest of their cornerbacks struggled last season and they’re even thinner now, with players like Jalen Mills and Nickell Robey-Coleman no longer with the team. They’ll have to address this position early in the draft.

71. Atlanta Falcons – RB Michael Carter (North Carolina)

The Todd Gurley experiment didn’t work, as Gurley was ineffective and was forced into a timeshare with Ito Smith and Brian Hill down the stretch. Hill and Smith are no longer with the name, leaving free agent acquisition Mike Davis as their top candidates for carries. They’ll likely add another option in the draft and could be one of the first teams to take a running back, especially if they trade down and accumulate additional picks.

72. Dallas Cowboys – S Jamar Johnson (Indiana)

The Cowboys signed Keanu Neal in free agency, but he’s only on a one-year deal and he’s expected to play some linebacker, so the Cowboys still have a need at the safety position.

73. Carolina Panthers – DT Milton Williams (Louisiana Tech)

The Panthers drafted Derrick Brown in the first round last year, but they need another defensive tackle to start long-term inside next to him. With Kawaan Short being released this off-season, the Panthers are currently expected to start veteran DaQuan Jones at defensive tackle next to Brown. Aside from Jones only being on a one-year deal and not being a long-term solution, the Panthers also need to add depth at the position.

74. Washington Football Team – OT Spencer Brown (Northern Iowa)

Washington had a strong offensive line overall last season, but they could still use an upgrade at left tackle. Brown could at least add valuable competition and depth.

75. Dallas Cowboys – TE Tommy Tremble (Notre Dame)

Blake Jarwin came into last season with a lot of promise as the starting tight end, but he tore his ACL early in the season. Dalton Schultz wasn’t bad in his absence, but the Cowboys still don’t have a proven starter at the position, so they could continue adding competition.

76. New York Giants – MLB Chazz Surratt (North Carolina)

Blake Martinez was a good addition for the Giants in free agency last off-season, but they need to add a better starter inside next to him. This is a position they can address on day two of the draft.

77. Los Angeles Chargers – DT Daviyon Nixon (Iowa)

Justin Jones and Linval Joseph are a decent starting duo, but they need to add better depth, especially with Joseph going into his age 33 season. Their 2019 1st round pick Jerry Tillery has completely failed to develop thus far, so they can’t count on him long-term.

78. Minnesota Vikings – OT Walker Little (Stanford)

Ezra Cleveland was probably the Vikings’ best guard last season, but the 2020 2nd round pick could be moving to left tackle with Riley Reiff no longer with the team. That would leave the Vikings with a starting duo of Dakota Dozier and Dru Samia at guard, which would be one of the worst in the league. They could keep Cleveland at guard, but would need to draft an offensive tackle in that scenario. Either way, they need to prioritize adding offensive linemen, likely multiple, through the draft.

79. Las Vegas Raiders – CB Benjamin St-Juste (Minnesota)

The Raiders used the 19th overall pick on cornerback Damon Arnette last year, but the Raiders’ defense was still terrible this season and they need to keep building their cornerback group, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them use another relatively high pick on a cornerback.

80. Las Vegas Raiders – OT Liam Eichenberg (Notre Dame)

The Raiders need to add multiple offensive linemen in the draft after dismantling their offensive line this off-season. Christensen could push to start at right tackle even as a rookie, as the very underwhelming Brandon Parker is currently penciled in as the starter at that position.

81. Miami Dolphins – RB Trey Sermon (Ohio State)

The Dolphins had one of the thinnest running back groups in the league last season and only added a depth player in Malcolm Brown this off-season, so they’ll probably address this position with a relatively early draft pick.

82. Arizona Cardinals – G Jackson Carmen (Clemson)

The Cardinals have already added a #1 cornerback in Stephon Gilmore (via trade) and a top safety prospect in Trevon Moehrig, which, along with the addition of JJ Watt and the return of Chandler Jones, would go a long way towards their defense catching up with their offense and making this a complete football team. However, they still have some needs on offense, including the offensive line. Carmen is a versatile lineman who could provide depth and competition at both guard and tackle.

83. Chicago Bears – QB Davis Mills (Stanford)

Even if the Bears are committed to veteran Andy Dalton as their starter for 2021, he’s not a long-term option and neither is Nick Foles, so the Bears will almost definitely add a young developmental quarterback in the draft.

84. Philadelphia Eagles – S Richie Grant (UCF)

The Eagles signed Anthony Harris in free agency, but he’s only on a one-year deal and fellow starter Rodney McLeod is an underwhelming option who is going into his age 31 season.

85. Tennessee Titans – WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (USC)

The Titans signed Josh Reynolds in free agency, but he’s an underwhelming replacement for free agent departure Corey Davis and they need to replace slot receiver Adam Humphries as well. 

86. New York Jets – CB Ambry Thomas (Michigan)

Cornerback is also a major need on defense for the Jets. Brian Poole was their only above average player at the position last season and for some reason he hasn’t been brought back as a free agent.

87. Pittsburgh Steelers – OT Brady Christensen (BYU)

The Steelers have a pair of unproven starting offensive tackles right now in Zach Banner and Chukwuma Okorafor and little depth behind them, so they’ll need to add depth in the draft. 

88. Los Angeles Rams – MLB Dylan Moses (Alabama)

The Rams don’t have many pressing needs, which is good because they’re thin on early draft picks, but their off ball linebackers are among the worst in the league. Even a third round pick could step in and immediately play a big role for this defense at middle linebacker. 

89. Cleveland Browns –  DT Jay Tufele (USC)

The Browns cut Sheldon Richardson to sign Jadeveon Clowney, so now defensive tackle surpasses defensive end as the Browns’ biggest draft day need. Richardson could still be brought back on a cheaper day, but it would likely only be a one-year deal for his age 31 season, so he’s not a long-term solution. 

90. Minnesota Vikings – CB Paulson Adebo (Stanford)

The Vikings added Patrick Peterson to stabilize a young cornerback group this off-season, but last year’s first round pick Jeff Gladney is in serious legal trouble, so the Vikings are likely to want to add insurance at the position, especially with Peterson only on a one-year deal.

91. Cleveland Browns – DE Rashad Weaver (Pittsburgh)

The Browns added Jadeveon Clowney in free agency, but only on a one-year deal and their depth behind him and Myles Garrett is still very suspect. Defensive end is still one of the Browns’ top needs.

92. Green Bay Packers – MLB Pete Werner (Ohio State)

The Packers addressed their long standing wide receiver need in the first round and now they address their long standing middle linebacker need. Even as a third round pick, Werner could see significant snaps as a rookie.

93. Buffalo Bills – TE Hunter Long (Boston College)

The Bills haven’t been successful at adding competition for Dawson Knox in free agency, so, without many pressing needs, the Bills could add a tight end in the draft if the value makes sense.

94. Baltimore Ravens – OT James Hudson (Cincinnati)

Even if the Ravens sign a veteran solution to replace Orlando Brown at right tackle for 2021, they’ll still likely use a draft pick at some point on a developmental starter who can play long-term.

95. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – RB Kenneth Gainwell (Memphis)

The Buccaneers brought back Leonard Fournette in free agency, but only on a one-year deal, meaning both he and Ronald Jones will hit free agency next off-season. Kenneth Gainwell is a more natural receiving back than either of them anyway and could have a role in passing situations as a rookie.

96. New England Patriots – WR D’Wayne Eskridge (Western Michigan)

The Patriots had arguably the worst wide receiver group in the league last season, so, even though they added Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne in free agency, as well as a talented tight end duo that figures to play together a lot with just two wide receivers on the field, the Patriots still need to keep adding depth at the wide receiver position, especially in the wake of Julian Edelman’s retirement.

97. Los Angeles Chargers – G Aaron Banks (Notre Dame)

The Chargers addressed the offensive tackle position in the first round, but they could still use help at guard. Banks could compete at either spot as a rookie.

98. New Orleans Saints – CB Shakur Brown (Michigan State)

Veteran starting cornerback Janoris Jenkins was one of the Saints’ cap casualties this off-season. The Saints will need to add depth through the draft.

99. Dallas Cowboys – OT Stone Forsythe (Florida)

The Cowboys should have better injury luck on the offensive line next season, but they may still want additional insurance at offensive tackle, where the Cowboys were in serious trouble last season when both Tyron Smith and La’El Collins got hurt.

100. Tennessee Titans – OLB Jordan Smith (UAB)

The Titans signed Bud Dupree to a big contract in free agency, but their need at the edge defender position was so big that they still need help now, even after adding Dupree. They’ll likely add a draft pick as well.

101. Detroit Lions – G Trey Smith (Tennessee)

The Lions will probably add an offensive lineman at some point in the draft because they are unsettled everywhere except left tackle and center. Smith could provide competition at both guard spots as a rookie.

102. San Francisco 49ers – WR Amari Rodgers (Clemson)

The 49ers have a good young wide receiver duo in Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, but with Kendrick Bourne signing with the Patriots this off-season, they could use a better third receiver. They could add a developmental option in the middle rounds.

103. Los Angeles Rams – C Landon Dickerson (Alabama)

The Rams lost center Austin Blythe in free agency this off-season and need competition for Brian Allen, who has struggled in starting action in the past. Dickerson could be a first round pick if not for concerns about a twice torn ACL, but he’s a worth a risk at this point in the draft.

104. Baltimore Ravens – WR Josh Palmer (Tennessee)

The Ravens need at the wide receiver position is dire enough that they could double up on the position in the draft.

105. New Orleans Saints – DT Alim McNeill (NC State)

The Saints lost Malcolm Brown and Sheldon Rankins in free agency this off-season and didn’t really replace them, so they will need to do so through the draft.

106. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Dayo Odeyingbo (Vanderbilt)

The Jaguars could use additional edge rush depth as they didn’t address this position in free agency.

107. New York Jets – TE Brevin Jordan (Miami)

Chris Herndon showed a lot of promise as a rookie in 2018, but hasn’t lived up to that promise in two years since and, now going into the final year of his rookie deal, the Jets could look to find a long-term replacement through the draft.

108. Atlanta Falcons – S Andre Cisco (Syracuse)

The Falcons have had Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen as their starting safeties for several years, but both left the team this off-season, as did hybrid cornerback/safety Damontee Kazee, and in their absence the Falcons have a very unsettled safety group.

109. Houston Texans – WR Dyami Brown (North Carolina)

The Texans pretty much need help at every position on the field and this is just their second pick, so they need to just take the best available player. Brown could easily go in the third round and would fill a big need at wide receiver.

110. Cleveland Browns – WR Anthony Schwartz (Auburn)

The Browns don’t need much on offense, but I could see them adding another developmental wide receiver. Rashard Higgins was retained in free agency to be the third receiver, but only on a one-year deal.

111. Cincinnati Bengals – OT Adrian Ealy (Oklahoma)

The Bengals signed Riley Reiff in free agency, but he’s going into his age 33 season and only on a one-year deal, so the Bengals need to find a long-term right tackle option in the draft.

112. Detroit Lions – DT Tyler Shelvin (LSU)

Defensive tackle is another position the Lions need help at, as they are very thin behind presumed starters Michael Brockers and Da’Shawn Hand.

113. Carolina Panthers – MLB Cam McGrone (Michigan)

The Panthers added Denzel Perryman in free agency, but he’s a one dimensional run stuffer, so they could add more depth at the position in the draft.

114. Denver Broncos – S Divine Deablo (Virginia Tech)

The Broncos brought back Kareem Jackson on a one-year deal this off-season, but given the length of his contract and his age, going into his age 33 season, the Broncos should be thinking about the future at the position.

115. Dallas Cowboys – CB Trill Williams (Syracuse)

The Cowboys’ need at cornerback is dire enough that they should double up on the position in the draft.

116. New York Giants – CB Camryn Bynum (California)

The Giants have big financial investments in two cornerbacks in Adoree Jackson and James Bradberry, but they could use a better third cornerback

117. San Francisco 49ers – RB Khalil Herbert (Virginia Tech)

The 49ers are unlikely to use a premium pick on the running back position because of Kyle Shanahan’s ability to find undervalued players at the position, but they need to add depth behind Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert. Herbert seems like a good scheme fit.

118. Los Angeles Chargers – RB Chuba Hubbard (Oklahoma State)

All of the Chargers’ running backs aside from Austin Ekeler struggled mightily last season, which is a problem because Ekeler is undersized and may not be able to hold up over a full season as a feature back. Having Ekeler back healthy and a better offensive line will help the Chargers be better on the ground in 2021, but they need to add talent at the running back position as well.

119. Minnesota Vikings – G Kendrick Green (Illinois)

The Vikings should come away from this draft with multiple offensive linemen. Having already added an offensive tackle, now the Vikings add a versatile interior offensive lineman.

120. New England Patriots – CB Shaun Wade (Ohio State)

If the Patriots trade away Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots will still be in good shape at cornerback, but they will need to replenish cornerback depth.

121. Las Vegas Raiders – DT Tommy Togiai (Ohio State)

The Raiders have remade their defensive tackle group this off-season, adding Quinton Jefferson and Solomon Thomas in free agency and cutting Maurice Hurst, who was arguably their most effective player at the position for the Raiders last season, though that’s not saying much and it came in limited action due to injury and illness. Jefferson, Thomas, and holdover Johnathan Hankins will likely be their top-3 players at the position this season, but that’s an underwhelming trio and they need better depth. I expect them to use a mid round pick on the position at the very least.

122. Detroit Lions (TRADE) – WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette (Iowa)

The Lions are thin enough at wide receiver that it would make sense for them to double up on the position in the draft, especially if they trade down and accumulate extra picks.

123. Philadelphia Eagles – DE Elerson Smith (Northern Iowa)

The Eagles, who love having a deep defensive line, used a third round pick on a defensive tackle, but they can’t be happy with their defensive end depth either after losing Vinny Curry, so I expect them to use a mid round pick on a developmental option at the position.

124. Washington Football Team – DE Adetokunbo Ogundeji (Notre Dame)

Chase Young and Montez Sweat are already one of the best edge rush duos in the league, but with Ryan Anderson and Ryan Kerrigan no longer with the team, Washington is now very thin at the position behind their starters. They’ll need to replenish depth in the draft.

125. Minnesota Vikings – DT Bobby Brown (Texas A&M)

The Vikings will be better at defensive tackle next season with Dalvin Tomlinson joining as a free agent and Michael Pierce coming back from an opt out, but they still need to add beter depth at the position.

126. Tennessee Titans – TE Tommy Yeboah (Mississippi)

Jonnu Smith signed with the Patriots as a free agent this off-season and, while Anthony Firkser seems capable of handling a larger role, they’ll need to add depth behind him.

127. Indianapolis Colts – DE Malcolm Koonce (Buffalo)

The Colts could still bring back Justin Houston as a free agent, but they will likely be looking for edge defender help through the draft.

128. Pittsburgh Steelers – C Trey Hill (Georgia)

The Steelers continue rebuilding their offensive line. They don’t have an obvious successor to Maurkice Pouncey, who retired this off-season after 11 seasons with the team.

129. Seattle Seahawks – DT Osawaru Odighizuwa (UCLA)

This is just the Seahawks second pick, so they’ll need to make these picks count. They need to add depth at defensive tackle after releasing Jarran Reed, so that is an obvious position for them to address.

130. Jacksonville Jaguars – WR Cade Johnson (South Dakota State)

The Jaguars lost Chris Conley, Dede Westbrook, and Keelan Cole this off-season. They signed Marvin Jones, an upgrade on all three, to start opposite DJ Chark and 2020 2nd round pick Laviska Shenault is expected to be the third receiver, but Jones is only on a two-year deal and he’s going into his age 31 season. Last year’s 5th round pick Collin Johnson is a promising young receiver behind their top-3, but it would surprise me to see the Jaguars add another developmental wide receiver at some point.

131. Baltimore Ravens – C Michael Menet (Penn State)

Aside from right tackle, center is the Ravens’ weakest spot on the offensive line, so they could add some long-term competition through the draft.

132. Cleveland Browns – G Deonte Brown (Alabama)

The Browns really don’t need anything else, but you can never have enough offensive line depth and Brown is a good value at this point.

133. New Orleans Saints – WR Marquez Stevenson (Houston)

The Saints are so thin behind Michael Thomas that I expect them to double up on the wide receiver position in the draft.

134. Minnesota Vikings – MLB Derrick Barnes (Purdue)

The Vikings’ defense couldn’t stop anyone down the stretch last season, in large part due to the absence of their talented linebackers Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr. The Vikings should add insurance at the position.

135. Green Bay Packers – CB Kary Vincent (LSU)

Kevin King was retained as a free agent this off-season, despite his up and down tenure as a starter, but he’s only on a one-year deal, so the Packers will likely be looking for long-term alternatives.

136. Baltimore Ravens – TE Tre McKitty (Georgia)

The tight end position is so important to the Ravens’ offense that they could add a tight end in the draft in the middle rounds. Their offense was at their best when they had three capable tight ends in 2019, before trading Hayden Hurst, and last year it really hurt this offense when #2 tight end Nick Boyle got hurt. McKitty could provide valuable depth and a third capable tight end.

137. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – WR Shi Smith (South Carolina)

The Buccaneers re-signed Antonio Brown, but he’s going into his age 33 season and only on a one-year deal, so the Buccaneers could still add a young receiver through the draft at some point.

138. Dallas Cowboys – MLB Anthony Hines (Texas A&M)

Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith were one of the best young linebacker duos in the league just a couple years ago, but both have regressed in the past couple years, Vander Esch in large part due to injuries. Smith is also highly paid and might not be kept long-term if he doesn’t bounce back. With long-time veteran Sean Lee no longer with the team, the Cowboys at the very least need depth at the position.

139. New England Patriots – MLB Ernst Smith (South Carolina)

The Patriots’ linebacking corps should be better in 2021 with the return of Dont’a Hightower, but he’s going into his age 31 season, so the Patriots should look for a long-term option behind him.

140. Pittsburgh Steelers – CB Rodarius Williams (Oklahoma State)

The Steelers overhauled their cornerback corps this season, releasing Steven Nelson for salary reasons, allowing Mike Hilton to leave in free agency, and retaining cornerback Cameron Sutton as the likely starter opposite Joe Haden, with unproven 2019 3rd round pick Justin Layne penciled in as the third cornerback. They need to continue adding to this group.

141. Los Angeles Rams – CB Davis Daniel (Georgia)

Jalen Ramsey, Troy Hill, and Darious Williams were arguably the best cornerback duo in the NFL last season, but Hill signed with the Browns this off-season. David Long, a 2019 3rd round pick, is currently penciled in as the third cornerback, but they need to add depth.

142. Green Bay Packers – WR Seth Williams (Auburn)

The Packers are thin enough at the wide receiver position that they could double up on the position in order to try to keep Aaron Rodgers happy.

143. Minnesota Vikings – S Hamsah Nasirildeen (Florida State)

The Vikings lost Anthony Harris in free agency this off-season and only replaced him with Xavier Woods, who was just signed to a one-year deal. They should look for a long-term solution in the draft.

144. Kansas City Chiefs – WR Tutu Atwell (Louisville)

The Chiefs lost Sammy Watkins in free agency and, while Mecole Hardman seems capable of handling a larger role, the Chiefs still need to find a better third receiver behind Hardman and Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs don’t have a lot of picks after the Orlando Brown trade, but I expect them to use one of their first few picks on another option at the wide receiver position.

If I have time, I will do the other position groups. Players are sorted in terms of expected market value.

Quarterbacks

Ryan Fitzpatrick: It’s not a great free agency class at the quarterback position, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has arguably played the best football of his career over the past 3 seasons, completing 64.8% of his passes for 7.87 YPA, 50 touchdowns, and 33 interceptions in 27 starts in his age 36-38 seasons, and, even in going into his age 39 season, Fitzpatrick should be able to find a situation where he’ll have a good chance to start in 2021, if he chooses to keep playing, with at least three teams entering free agency with an obvious need at the quarterback position, Denver, Washington, and Chicago. 

As the top quarterback available, Fitzpatrick could have his pick of the three teams and Chicago gives Fitzpatrick both the best chance to win and the best chance to be a full-time starter, with the Bears lacking the cap space to make a splash move for another quarterback and lacking the high draft pick needed to select a top quarterback prospect. The Bears may have pipedreams of acquiring Russell Wilson, but Fitzpatrick is a much more realistic option who could be a legitimate upgrade at the position for a team that has been an upgrade at quarterback away from making it into the post-season in each of the past two seasons. The contract is a two-year deal worth up to 20 million, but incentivized and with no guaranteed money beyond 2021. A deal like that with a contender is probably the best Fitzpatrick can hope for this off-season.

Prediction: Signs with Chicago on an incentivized 2-year, 20 million dollar deal with 6 million guaranteed

Jacoby Brissett: Brissett has youth on his side, only going into his age 29 season, and the 2016 3rd round pick isn’t inexperienced either, with 32 career starts. The problem is his experience hasn’t shown him to be more than a high end backup who can start if needed for stretches, but is overmatched as a 16-game starter. There are enough teams with uncertainty at the quarterback position that Brissett is likely to get an opportunity to compete for a starting job, but it’s very questionable whether he’s one of the top-32 quarterbacks in the league and it’s telling that the head coach who drafted him Bill Belichick traded him away from a depth wide receiver and opted to re-sign Cam Newton rather than re-acquire Brissett this off-season. 

Brissett would have a shot to start in either Washington or Denver, but he would likely have to take an incentivized deal with either one. I like Denver is likely to acquire Sam Darnold via trade, as John Elway was very high on Darnold just 3 years ago when he was coming out of USC, leaving Brissett to compete with Kyle Allen and Taylor Heinicke in Washington. I would expect him to make starts in that situation and it’s not a bad place for a quarterback to be with an elite defense supporting him, but I wouldn’t expect much of a ceiling from him.

Prediction: Signs with Washington on an incentivized 1-year, 12 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed

Jameis Winston: With Denver acquiring Sam Darnold, Winston doesn’t have an obvious destination for a starting job this off-season, other than staying where he is in New Orleans and competing with Taysom Hill for the starting job, with Drew Brees (allegedly) retiring. Staying with Sean Payton, a quarterback guru who clearly believes Winston’s turnover issues are fixable, would seem to be in Winston’s best interest.

Prediction: Re-signs with New Orleans on an incentivized 1-year, 10 million dollar deal with 4 million guaranteed

Mitch Trubisky: Trubisky is in a similar situation as Jameis Winston was in last year, coming off an up and down (but mostly down) stretch with the team that used a high pick to draft him and now finding that team looking for anyone and everyone to replace him. Like Winston, Trubisky’s best option this off-season is likely going to be taking a backup job somewhere with an established offensive coaching staff. 

The 49ers, who are known to be seeking a higher end backup for injury prone starter Jimmy Garoppolo, would certainly count, led by head coach Kyle Shanahan. Backing up Garoppolo would also likely mean that Trubisky would be likely to see action at some point, given Garoppolo’s injury history. Putting up a few games of good tape in a good quarterback situation in San Francisco could lead to him getting another starting job somewhere else down the road.

Prediction: Signs with San Francisco on a 2-year, 14 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed

Alex Smith: Smith is really tough to evaluate given his injury history. Washington understandably moved on from him rather than pay him 19 million for 2021, even though he was their best quarterback last season. He showed enough on tape that purely on ability he deserves to compete for a starting job somewhere, but that was a limited sample size and it’s concerning that he got hurt again just a few games into it. It’s unlikely any team is going to want to go into 2021 with Smith as a presumptive 16-game starter and it’s probably in his best interest long-term to take a backup job anyway and diminish his risk of a serious re-injury. 

I’ve seen Smith linked Urban Meyer, who was Smith’s college coach, and the Jaguars, where he would be a backup and mentor to #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence, which would make some sense, but Smith may want to chase a ring more than anything if he’s going to be a backup and arguably the best place for him do that in 2021 is back with another former coach of his, Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs, where he would give the Chiefs a high end insurance policy in case Pat Mahomes misses time with injury. Smith still has a good relationship with Reid and Mahomes and, having made over 190 million in his career, is unlikely to demand much money as a backup, which is important for the cap strapped Chiefs.

Prediction: Signs with Kansas City on a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal with 1 million guaranteed

Andy Dalton: We’re firmly in the high end veteran backup part of the quarterback market, but there are still teams that have a big need for an experienced insurance option. The Giants, who had to turn to Colt McCoy last season when Daniel Jones got hurt, are a team that comes to mind, especially when you take into account that Jones has been inconsistent and injury prone through the first two years of his career. Having a mentor like Dalton around could be helpful for Jones’ long-term development as well.

Prediction: Signs with NY Giants on 1-year, 5 million dollar deal with 2 million guaranteed

Tyrod Taylor: Here is another experienced veteran backup option. In two of the past three seasons, Taylor has (barely) kept the seat warm for highly drafted rookies in Baker Mayfield and Justin Herbert, unfortunately getting hurt and losing his job early in both seasons. He’s unlikely to start week 1 anywhere in 2021 barring injury, but he could be a valuable backup for the Eagles, who have the inexperienced Jalen Hurts under center and little else behind him on the depth chart. Similar to Dalton in New York, Taylor would provide a valuable insurance policy and mentor for the Eagles’ young quarterback. 

Prediction: Signs with Philadelphia on 1-year, 4 million dollar deal with 2 million guaranteed

Running Backs

Aaron Jones: Jones has been a valuable running back over the past 4 seasons for the Packers, rushing for 5.17 yards per carry and scoring 43 total touchdowns, with 30 of those touchdowns coming just in the past two seasons, but it seems unlikely he’ll be back in Green Bay. The Packers don’t have much financial flexibility and like the running backs they have behind him on the depth chart, while Jones seems likely to break the bank as one of the top offensive playmakers available this off-season. He might not reach the 15-16 million annually that running backs like Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, and Alvin Kamara received on their new contracts, but he figures to come close. The Dolphins have the perfect combination of cap space, need at the position, and an opportunity to win that should entice Jones to join them, if they’re willing to meet his asking price.

Prediction: Signs with Miami on 3-year, 39 million dollar deal with 27 million guaranteed

Chris Carson: The Jets are my runner ups for Aaron Jones, as they would be able to offer the money and playing time Jones would want, but wouldn’t necessarily give him a chance to win right away. With Jones off the market, they turn to Chris Carson, the #2 running back available. He’s not as good as Jones, but he could end up being a better value and would be a big upgrade for a Jets team that badly needs one at the running back position.

Prediction: Signs with NY Jets on a 3-year, 27 million dollar deal with 19 million guaranteed

Kenyan Drake: The Cardinals acquired the underutilized Kenyan Drake from the Dolphins at the trade deadline in 2019 and he showed enough in a half season as their feature back to be franchise tagged as a free agent last off-season. His first full season in Arizona in 2020 wasn’t as good as his finish to 2019, but if his market doesn’t develop this off-season, the Cardinals could still welcome him back on a one-year deal. He would still cede some carries to promising backup Chase Edmonds, perhaps more in 2021 than in 2020, but the Cardinals would still give him one of his best chances at playing time.

Prediction: Re-signs with Arizona on a 1-year, 6 million dollar deal with 4 million guaranteed

Le’Veon Bell: Bell was seen as one of the top players at his position a few years ago, but he held out of the 2018 season, chased the money with the Jets in 2019, and played so badly that he got cut midway into the 2020 season, while still in the guaranteed portion of his deal. He then went to Kansas City where he hardly played as primarily an insurance policy. The Falcons took a chance on a once elite running back last season with Todd Gurley. That didn’t work out, but still in desperate need at the position and without much cap flexibility, they could take another shot on a player like Bell on a one-year prove it deal. Bell’s addition wouldn’t preclude them from using a draft pick on the position, but he would prevent them from having to rely on a rookie at the position.

Prediction: Signs with Atlanta on a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal with 3 million guaranteed

James Conner: Conner has had some impressive stretches as the Steelers’ lead back over the past few seasons, but he’s also been plagued with injuries and has been very inconsistent as a result. If his market doesn’t develop in a lowered cap off-season, his best move is probably going to be to go back to Pittsburgh on a one-year deal and try to re-establish his value. The Steelers would have a desperate need at the position without Conner and Conner is unlikely to find more money and playing time elsewhere.

Prediction: Re-signs with Steelers on a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal with 3 million guaranteed

Jamaal Williams: While Jones is unlikely to return to Green Bay, Williams seems likely to. The Packers have used him more as a 1b to Jones’ 1a over the past two seasons, rather than as a true backup (290 touches to Jones’ 535), showing they clearly value their former 4th round pick. He won’t break the bank for the cap strapped Packers and working in tandem with 2020 2nd round pick AJ Dillon would give Williams his best opportunity to both see significant playing time and play on a winning team with a productive offense. It’s hard to see Williams wanting to leave Green Bay unless Jones returns.

Prediction: Re-signs with Green Bay on a 3-year, 14 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed

James White: The Buccaneers used Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette in tandem last season and both fared pretty well on the ground, but neither of them are the kind of pass catching back Tom Brady was used to playing with in New England. With Fournette hitting free agency this off-season, why not take this opportunity to replace him with Brady’s former teammate James White, who is also a free agent this off-season. White won’t break the bank for the Buccaneers and would probably be more valuable to them than anyone. He’d be a great complement as a passing down back to early down back Ronald Jones.

Prediction: Signs with Tampa Bay on a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal with 4 million guaranteed

Mike Davis: Mike Davis impressed as an injury replacement for Christian McCaffrey last season and, while the Panthers would like to have him back as an insurance policy, he can probably find more money and definitely more playing time elsewhere. His former team, the Seattle Seahawks, are reportedly interested and would make a lot of sense because they are a run heavy team whose top-2 running backs are hitting the open market this off-season, most notably lead back Chris Carson, who is probably going to be cost-prohibitive for the Seahawks this off-season. Davis is a cheaper replacement.

Prediction: Signs with Seattle on a 2-year, 9 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed

Leonard Fournette: With the Buccaneers replacing him with James White, Fournette finds another contender to latch on with. The Bills could use more talent at the running back position, but don’t have the financial flexibility to add a significant contract at the position. Fournette would only have to compete with unproven young running backs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss in Buffalo and would be joining an offense that was one of the league’s best last season.

Prediction: Signs with Buffalo on 1-year, 4 million dollar deal with 2 million guaranteed

Marlon Mack: Mack was the Colts’ lead back in 2018 and 2019 and totalled 17 rushing touchdowns and a 4.52 YPC average on 442 carries, but he tore his achilles in week 1 last season and was replaced with rookie Jonathan Taylor, who is now entrenched as the Colts’ lead back. The Colts are highly unlikely to bring him back, but he could still find work as an early down back in a tandem. The Chargers have a great passing down/speed back in Austin Ekeler, but need a better early down complement for him. Mack would give them one without breaking the bank and the Chargers would give Mack his best opportunity to earn playing time and rehab his value for next off-season.

Prediction: Signs with LA Chargers on a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal with 2 million guaranteed

Duke Johnson: The Patriots lost James White to the Buccaneers, so they’ll need a replacement passing down back to complement early down backs Damien Harris and Sony Michel. Duke Johnson is a similar player who could catch a lot of passes in New England’s system.

Prediction: Signs with New England on a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed

Todd Gurley: After flopping in his opportunity in Atlanta last season, the former MVP candidate Todd Gurley will once again have to take a one-year prove it deal this off-season and likely for less than the 5 million he made in 2021. If they are interested, the 49ers would present an interesting opportunity for Gurley. Gurley thrived in a similar offense with the Rams and Kyle Shanahan is known for getting the most out of his running backs. The 49ers are not going to shell out big bucks for a free agent running back and Gurley wouldn’t be the lead back in San Francisco, but with Tevin Coleman and Jerrick McKinnon set to hit free agency, Gurley would add needed depth for the 49ers behind Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson and he would have his best chance to rehab his value for next off-season.

Prediction: Signs with San Francisco on a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal with 1 million guaranteed

Carlos Hyde: Hyde is the Seahawks’ other free agent running back this off-season and he seems a lot more likely to return as he’s unlikely to be greeted with a robust market. The Seahawks can offer him familiarity, a winning team and playing time, competing with Mike Davis and Rashaad Penny for carries.

Prediction: Re-signs with Seattle on a 2-year, 7 million dollar deal with 4 million guaranteed

Wide Receivers

Kenny Golladay: Similar to Aaron Jones, Golladay is one of the top offensive playmakers available this off-season and could be attracted to the Dolphins for the same reasons, the money they can afford to pay him, the opportunity to play a big role, and the opportunity to play for a winner. Other teams will definitely be interested as he’s arguably the best unrestricted free agent available overall, after the Lions declined to franchise tag him, but the Dolphins can win a bidding war and give a very enticing opportunity to play opposite Devante Parker for an up and coming young team.

Prediction: Signs with Miami on a 4-year, 74 million dollar deal with 44 million guaranteed

JuJu Smith-Schuster: The Colts could also be in on Golladay and have everything the Dolphins have to offer, including significant cap space, but they’ve been reluctant to get in bidding wars for players in recent off-seasons. Instead, they could turn their attention to a slightly cheaper option and make Juju Smith-Schuster their long-term #1 wide receiver. He’s not as proven as Golladay, but he’s about 3 years younger and could be the better player in the long run.

Prediction: Signs with Indianapolis on a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal with 32 million guaranteed

Will Fuller: The Jaguars have a trio of wide receiver free agents in Dede Westbrook, Chris Conley, and Keelan Cole and, with the most cap space in the league, they can afford to be aggressive in finding a replacement to play with DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault long-term. Will Fuller is one of the top wide receivers available this off-season and the Jaguars would be taking him from their divisional rival, where he was Deshaun Watson’s #1 wide receiver last season in DeAndre Hopkins’ absence. His addition would give Trevor Lawrence a talented wide receiver trio from day one.

Prediction: Signs with Jacksonville on a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal with 30 million guaranteed

Corey Davis: The Ravens don’t have a ton of needs, but they badly need another wide receiver for Lamar Jackson and, with Jackson still on a cheap rookie deal, they have the cap space to spend at the top of the money and be aggressive while Jackson still has a low cap hit. The big bodied Davis would be a perfect complement for emerging speedster Marquise Brown. The former 5th overall pick finally played like it in his 4th season in the league last season, averaging 2.58 yards per route run (5th among wide receivers), and is dripping with upside on his second contract.

Prediction: Signs with Baltimore on a 4-year, 56 million dollar deal with 31 million guaranteed

Curtis Samuel: Samuel was the Panthers’ #3 receiver last season, but he’ll likely be valued much more than that in free agency, especially since the former 2nd round pick still has the upside to keep getting better, only going into his age 25 season. He’d be a perfect fit in Arizona because of his ability to make plays with the ball in space and line up in multiple spots and the Cardinals have both the need and the cap space to go after someone like Samuel. He won’t get top wide receiver money, but still figures to cost a significant amount, after finishing with 1,051 yards from scrimmage in 2020.

Prediction: Signs with Arizona on a 3-year, 36 million dollar deal with 25 million guaranteed

Antonio Brown: Brown would be a tough case if not for the fact that he’ll almost definitely be back with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. Brown has #1 wide receiver talent but obvious baggage and is going into his age 33 season, so it’ll be interesting to see how the Buccaneers value him, especially since they may be the only team willing to take a chance on Brown.

Prediction: Re-signs with Tampa Bay on a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal with 6 million guaranteed

TY Hilton: The Patriots have a top of cap space and a massive need at the wide receiver position, but I expect them to exploit this deep wide receiver class rather than splurging for one guy at the top of the market. They’ve never paid top dollar for free agents unless they’re All-Pro caliber and none of the wide receivers available are and they need more than one wide receiver anyway. Belichick and the Patriots have faced off with TY Hilton on several occasions and Belichick may take advantage of the opportunity to get the aging, but still effective former Colts #1 wide receiver on a relatively inexpensive short-term deal.

Prediction: Signs with New England on a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal with 12 million guaranteed

Marvin Jones: The Packers don’t have much cap space, but they could restructure some contracts to take advantage of a deep wide receiver class and get a much needed veteran #2 receiver to play opposite Davante Adams. Jones fits the bill, ahead of his age 31 season, and has the added benefit of further weakening division rival Detroit, where Jones has spent the past 5 seasons.

Prediction: Signs with Green Bay on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal with 17 million guaranteed

John Brown: Brown was released by the Bills ahead of a non-guaranteed 8 million dollar salary, but that had more to do with the Bills having limited cap space and having great depth at the wide receiver position. Brown is going into his age 31 season, but has shown he’s still a capable #2 receiver when healthy and is just a season removed from a 72/1060/6 slash line in 2019, so he’ll draw interest this off-season. The Jets have a need at the position and the money to spend more than this, but probably won’t be seen as a prime destination for top free agent destinations. Someone like Brown could be enticed by the money on a short-term deal in a depressed market. He would join Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims as the Jets top wide receivers.

Prediction: Signs with NY Jets on 1-year, 8 million dollar deal with 6 million guaranteed

Nelson Agholor: Agholor was a bit of a laughing stock when he left the Eagles because of his tendency to commit drops and his limited production in his final season in 2019. That allowed the Raiders to get him cheap on a 1-year, 1.1 million dollar deal and the former first round pick responded with the best year of his career, with a 48/896/8 slash line on just 82 targets. Agholor comes with plenty of downside, but he’s topped 700 yards in 3 of 6 seasons in the league and has shown for stretches why he was a first round pick. The Raiders seem likely to value him more than most teams and have indicated a desire to sign him to a long-term deal.

Prediction: Re-signs with Las Vegas on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal with 14 million guaranteed

Sammy Watkins: Watkins is somehow only going into his age 28 season and still has theoretical upside, but the former 4th overall pick hasn’t topped 673 yards in a season since his dominant 2015 season, despite spending the past 3 seasons on the most explosive passing offense in the league. He has still shown flashes, but he hasn’t played a full 16 game season since 2014, he’s missed 23 games in the past 5 seasons, and most importantly, his injuries seem to have sapped his athleticism. He’s still a worthwhile flier on a one-year deal because he can at least be a #2 wide receiver if healthy, he has the upside to be more than that, and he’s unlikely to even command the 9 million he made last season because of his continuing injury issues. The wide receiver needy Patriots could take a shot as they need to add multiple options to one of the thinnest wide receiver groups in the league.

Prediction: Signs with New England on a 1-year, 6 million dollar deal with 3 million guaranteed

AJ Green: The Titans don’t have much financial flexibility this off-season, but they’ll need to find help at the wide receiver position behind AJ Brown, with Adam Humphries being a cap casualty and Corey Davis likely to sign elsewhere this off-season. AJ Green could be a fit as a low cost flyer. Green missed 23 of 32 games from 2018-2019 and was not the same in his return in his age 32 season in 2020, posting a 47/523/2 slash line, but he’s not totally over the hill and may have just not been motivated last season in Cincinnati, where he had no desire to be without a long-term deal. He may have a tough time finding a long-term deal this off-season, but the Titans would give him an opportunity for significant playing time on a contender and he would fit in their limited budget if his market predictably doesn’t develop.

Prediction: Signs with Tennessee on a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal with 3 million guaranteed

Rashard Higgins: Higgins showed a good rapport with Baker Mayfield down the stretch in 2018, with a 18/255/2 slash line in his final 5 games, but was inexplicably not utilized by inept head coach Freddie Kitchens in 2019, before a more capable coaching staff decided to utilize him again in 2020, even starting him as the #2 wide receiver in the absence of the injured Odell Beckham, a 11-game stretch (including playoffs) in which Higgins had a 39/662/2 slash line. He says he’d like to be back in Cleveland, but the Browns already have big money committed to two wide receivers and a tight end and are unlikely to outbid teams for a player who would be their #3 wide receiver with Beckham back next season. A team like Washington, who needs a #2 wide receiver and has cap space to spend, will be able to offer more playing time and money.

Prediction: Signs with Washington on a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal with 15 million guaranteed

Emmanuel Sanders: The Panthers have DJ Moore and Robby Anderson and paid up for tight end Jonnu Smith, so they’re unlikely to spend much on a #3 receiver to replace Curtis Samuel. Emmanuel Sanders, released by the Saints to save 6.5 million, could have a tough time finding significant guarantees this off-season, ahead of his age 34 season. The Panthers could take a shot on someone like him.

Prediction: Signs with Carolina on a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal with 3 million guaranteed

Josh Reynolds: Reynolds has never been much more than a #3/#4 receiver with the Rams, but the Rams have always had a deep receiving corps and Reynolds is likely to be valued as more on the open market. The Bengals have ties to him through head coach Zac Taylor, who also comes from the Rams, and they have a need at the wide receiver position, with AJ Green likely leaving this off-season. The Bengals have been hesitant to spend money in free agency historically, but they showed a willingness to spend more last off-season and they have among the most cap space in the league again this off-season. Reynolds would add another young (age 26) wide receiver to a trio of Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. The Bengals could easily value him more than anyone else.

Prediction: Signs with Cincinnati on a 4-year, 28 million dollar deal with 14 million guaranteed

Kendrick Bourne: Bourne is probably best as a #3 wide receiver, but he showed himself to be a little more than that last season with the 49ers with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel both intermittently dealing with injuries, leading to Bourne getting 74 targets, which he turned into a 49/667/2 slash line. He says he wants to return to the 49ers, but is likely to get more playing time and money elsewhere. The Lions don’t have more financial flexibility, but still need wide receiver help even after signing Tyrell Williams, as they’re set to lose their top-3 wide receivers this off-season. They can sign someone like Bourne to a multi-year deal and keep his first year cap hit low.

Prediction: Signs with Detroit on a 3-year, 19 million dollar deal with 9 million guaranteed

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry: The Patriots didn’t make a huge splash in the wide receiver market despite having a ton of cap space, but they could make one at the tight end position. Given how valuable the tight end position has been to this offense historically, I think it’s more likely the Patriots spent 12-13 million annually at the top of the tight end market than 18-20 million annually at the top of the wide receiver market, especially given how much deeper the wide receiver market is. Henry might not quite be an elite tight end, but he’s one of the few tight ends in the league who is an above average pass catcher and an above average run blocker, which is badly needed in this offense.

Prediction: Signs with New England on a 4-year, 52 million dollar deal with 20 million guaranteed

Jonnu Smith: The Panthers are another team with a desperate need at the tight end position and, while they don’t have the cap space or the coaching staff that New England has, they do have a good enough situation to appeal to Jonnu Smith, the 2nd best tight end available. A quick look at his stats don’t show him to be much, but the former 3rd round pick has always split time on a run heavy team. His efficiency stats, particularly over the past two seasons (1.64 yards per route run), his athleticism, and his youth (26 in August) all suggest he is someone whose production could explode in the right situation. He won’t be cheap, but he’s a much needed piece for a Panthers team that can afford to spend at the top of the market.

Prediction: Signs with Carolina on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal with 17 million guaranteed 

Gerald Everett: Everett is another player whose production looks a lot better when you consider he split time with Tyler Higbee throughout his tenure with the Rams. It’s likely he’ll be valued as a starter this off-season, particularly by a team that had a high grade on the former 44th overall pick when he came out in 2017. I don’t know how the Chargers’ decision makers will view Everett, but they have a big need for a pass catcher at the position with Hunter Henry gone and they have the financial flexibility to spend a decent amount to replace him. Everett’s production could explode with an increased target share in a Justin Herbert led offense.

Prediction: Signs with LA Chargers on a 2-year, 15 million dollar deal with 10 million guaranteed

Rob Gronkowski: There is no doubt that Rob Gronkowski will be back with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, even if he could command more money elsewhere. The Buccaneers don’t have a ton of financial flexibility, but will find a way to fit Gronk in on a team friendly short-term deal.

Prediction: Re-signs with Tampa Bay on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal with 6 million guaranteed

Jared Cook: This is a shallow tight end class and there are a bunch of teams in need of upgrades at the position. One team that could be more convincing than most are the Bills, who are one of the top Super Bowl contenders heading into next season and are reportedly looking for an upgrade at the position. Cook isn’t an every down player anymore, but the Bills have Dawson Knox as well and wouldn’t have to pay much for Cook, important given their cap situation. For Cook, Buffalo would give the 34-year-old a chance at a late career Super Bowl run.

Prediction: Signs with Buffalo on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed

Kyle Rudolph: Released by the Vikings last month ahead of a 8 million dollar non-guaranteed salary, Rudolph has been linked to the Patriots, but they shoot higher here, leaving Rudolph to go elsewhere. He won’t command much money in his age 32 season with declining production, but the Seahawks can offer him a good mix of playing time and playoff contention and would like to find a replacement for the retired Greg Olsen without breaking the bank.

Prediction: Signs with Seattle on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed

Trades can’t officially be accepted until the start of the NFL’s new league year in March, but the Detroit Lions have agreed to a deal sending quarterback Matt Stafford, who has made 165 starts in 12 seasons with the team, to the Los Angeles Rams, less than two weeks after Stafford made his request to be traded known to the Lions organization. I was expecting the Lions to maybe get a late first round pick, or a high second round pick and another pick, but instead they get back two first round picks and a third round pick in draft compensation. At first glance, that seems like a clear win, but this deal is much more complicated. 

With the Rams already not having their own 2021 first round pick from the Jalen Ramsey trade they made in 2019, the Rams are sending 2022 and 2023 first round picks to the Lions in this deal, so the Lions will have to wait for their premium draft picks, although the Lions do get the third round pick this year. This deal also doesn’t just involve Stafford going to the Rams, but a swap of these two teams’ starting quarterbacks, as now-former Rams Jared Goff’s inclusion in this trade was necessary for salary reasons. 

In evaluating this trade, it makes more sense to view it as a trade of starting quarterbacks with draft compensation included, rather than the other way around, even if the draft picks are the most important assets in this deal. I will get to a comparison of the two quarterbacks on the field in a little bit, but these two quarterbacks’ contracts also need to be taken into account. Signed to a 4-year, 134 million dollar extension in September 2019 by the Rams, Goff got a big chunk of his contract in a signing bonus (25 million), but is still effectively guaranteed about 53 million over the next 2 seasons. The Lions could cut him after this season and save some money, but they’d still be paying him 43 million for just 1 season, so that’s unlikely unless he really struggles.

Stafford, meanwhile, makes just 43 million over the next 2 seasons and none of it is guaranteed, though it’s obviously highly unlikely the Rams would cut Stafford at any point, given the overall compensation they’re giving up for him. The Rams could extend Stafford next off-season ahead of the final year of his deal and Stafford would likely command a pay increase on an extension, but that extension would kick in after the two years remaining on Stafford’s deal, so we can effectively compare these two quarterbacks on their pay over the next 2 seasons, with Goff being the higher priced quarterback by about 10 million. 

The Browns got a 2nd round pick from the Texans to take on the remaining 16 million guaranteed that was owed to Brock Osweiler, so it’s reasonable to expect 10 million to get you about a third round pick. Let’s assume the 2021 third round pick in this deal is compensation for the salary difference between the two quarterbacks and that the two future first round picks are compensation for the talent difference between the two quarterbacks. 

Pushing a year out a pick usually gets you the equivalent of an extra round in the draft the next year (2020 3rd round picks being traded for 2021 2nd round picks for example) and by that standard the Lions are only getting a second and a third round pick for Stafford, but it’s not quite that simple, as the Lions seem to be headed into a much needed multi-year rebuild and might not mind waiting a year or two for these picks as much as another team would, while the Rams are putting themselves into a situation where they will have traded away in pre-draft trades their first round pick in 6 in 7 seasons from 2017-2023, with the exception being a first round pick they traded down from on draft day in 2019 and their last actual first round selection being Goff, back in 2016. 

Is Stafford enough of an upgrade from Goff to justify that? The answer comes down to how much do you believe Goff benefits from playing in Sean McVay’s system with consistently good talent around him. Goff’s quarterback rating over the past four seasons is less than 3 points lower than Stafford’s and he’s 6 years younger with less of a recent injury history, but he’s played in a much better situation, while Stafford has consistently been held back by subpar supporting casts and coaching. 

Perhaps most telling is the fact that McVay, who is widely considered to have had a huge hand in Goff’s development from a raw rookie to a quarterback who can at least be effective with the right pieces around him, seems to think this team would be a lot better off with another quarterback. Despite that, this is still a very interesting return for the Lions. With a roster that was going nowhere, a quarterback who wanted out, and no financial flexibility ahead of free agency, the Lions rightfully seem to be taking the long-term view with this team. First they hired 44-year-old Dan Campbell on a 6-year contract to be their head coach and now they pull the trigger on this move. 

This deal doesn’t give the Lions more financial flexibility, but it resolves the quarterback issue in the short-term without the use of their 7th overall pick and it gives them much needed draft capital in 2022 and 2023, either to move up for a long-term quarterback option or to build out the rest of this roster. It’s highly unlikely Goff is going to find some untapped potential in Detroit that he didn’t have in Los Angeles with McVay, but he’s still only going into his age 27 season and could be a serviceable starter for a rebuilding team that likely isn’t going to win a lot of games over the next couple seasons regardless.

For the Rams, this is a continued bet on their ability to draft and develop players outside of the first round. Despite their recent lack of first round picks, half of the 26 players who played at least 450 snaps on either side of the ball last season are home grown, from the 2015-2019 drafts, outside of the first round. That doesn’t include the 2020 draft, which saw 6th round pick Jordan Fuller make 12 starts as a rookie and 2nd round pick Cam Akers emerge as a feature back down the stretch.

History suggests the draft is more of a crap shoot than anything. The Pete Carroll/John Schneider Seahawks were known for finding late round gems in the early 2010s, but a look at their recent drafts clearly shows their hit rate has regressed to the mean and then some. Bill Belichick’s Patriots found arguably the greatest quarterback and tight end of all-time, both outside of the first round, along with a #1 receiver and Super Bowl MVP in the 7th round and several other draft steals, but even his record has some clear misses on it.

To the Rams’ credit, they seem to understand the value of trading back on draft day as much as any team, including New England, treating the draft as the likely unpredictable event that it is and going with a quantity over quality approach in terms of draft picks, maximizing their chances of finding a steal. The Rams might not have selected in the first round since 2016, but they have still selected 36 times overall over their past 4 drafts. Ultimately, this is a deal that makes sense for both teams, though there are obvious risks with both sides as both teams take to make the most of imperfect situations.

1. Los Angeles Chargers 

Pros – Young franchise quarterback, talented roster, cap space to be aggressive in free agency

Cons – Ownership, lack of fanbase

The Chargers are one of the only two teams on this list with the most valuable asset in the NFL, a young franchise quarterback, Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate Justin Herbert. However, unlike the other team the Texans, the Chargers have talent on the rest of this roster as well and, because their franchise quarterback is on a cheap rookie deal, they have the financial flexibility to add more talent this off-season, entering the off-season with the 9th projected most cap space in the league. 

There are concerns about the ownership and the lack of fanbase (once fans are allowed back in stadiums), but all of the available jobs have their warts and the Chargers’ job looks to be the clear best of the bunch. That is likely to be the consensus among head coaching candidates as well, so the Chargers could have their pick of the bunch. 

No head coaching candidate has been more popular than Kansas City offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who has interviewed for every available position after three seasons coordinating the league’s most explosive offense in Kansas City with Pat Mahomes and Andy Reid, so he could have his pick of jobs. A pairing between him and Herbert and the Chargers would make a lot of sense.

Prediction: Eric Bieniemy, Kansas City Chiefs Offensive Coordinator

2. Jacksonville Jaguars

Pros – #1 pick, tons of cap space

Cons – Weak roster

The Jaguars may seem like an unattractive opening, given that they finished with the worst record in the league last season, but this was always part of a long-term rebuild and the Jaguars are armed with an extra first round pick and a lot of cap space to build their roster and, of course, because they were the worst team in the league last season, they get the right to draft Trevor Lawrence, once of the top quarterback prospects in decades. 

This could be a quick rebuild and any head coach who takes this job will have relatively low expectations to start. Compared to the other options, there is a lot to like here. Multiple reports suggest the Jaguars are locked onto former college championship winning head coach Urban Meyer and are waiting on his decision to come out of retirement, at age 56.

Prediction: Urban Meyer, Former Ohio State University Head Coach

3. Philadelphia Eagles

Pros – Good players on both sides of the ball, ownership/front office, #6 pick, quarterback?

Cons – No financial flexibility, likely need to cut players, quarterback?

The Eagles are late to the game after somewhat surprisingly firing Doug Pederson earlier this week and they’re a complicated case overall. Probably more than any team on this list, the Eagles are a well-run organization from top to bottom and, despite their record last season, they have a lot of individually talented players. They also have a premium draft pick by virtue of their record last season, picking 6th overall. However, they’re already far over next year’s cap before re-signing free agents and may need to let some very talented players go, or further sacrifice depth on a top-heavy roster.

Then there is the matter of their quarterback situation, which could be viewed as either a positive or a negative depending on the incoming coach’s view of this team’s quarterback options. Some may see Carson Wentz as an exciting reclamation project who, prior to last season’s disastrous performance, had always been a capable starter and at times an MVP candidate, and some may see 2020 2nd round pick Jalen Hurts as an exciting young quarterback prospect, but the Eagles don’t seem to have a clear plan at the position and wouldn’t be able to get appropriate value for either quarterback if they were to move on right now. 

The Eagles may be a little behind, but they can still get a good offensive coach to help resolve this situation, with Arthur Smith or perhaps Joe Brady looking like strong early options. I have Brady going elsewhere, but Smith would still be a strong hire. In two seasons as the Titans’ offensive coordinator, Smith unlocked Derrick Henry as a feature back, coaxed a mid-career breakout out of Ryan Tannehill, and orchestrated one of the best offenses in the league in back-to-back seasons. Only 38, Smith is an exciting young candidate that is in high demand this off-season.

Prediction: Arthur Smith, Tennessee Titans Offensive Coordinator

4. Houston Texans 

Pros – Deshaun Watson

Cons – Weak roster, no first round pick, lack of financial flexibility, ownership/front office, Deshaun Watson?

I alluded to the Texans’ situation earlier, but I didn’t include the added wrinkle that the Texans don’t have their own first round pick this year and that star quarterback Deshaun Watson may want out. Add in the questions around their front office and ownership, their cap situation (7th least projected cap space in the league), and a roster that is arguably the league’s worst outside of the quarterback position and there are a lot of concerns about this opportunity.

So why do they rank ahead of other opportunities with so many cons and just one pro (who may want out)? Because Watson is that good. When you have a superstar quarterback like that in the prime of his career, other things tend to fall into place much more easily. Even if the Texans are forced to trade Watson, he would command a king’s ransom including multiple premium picks, which, along with the cap space freed up by moving Watson, would allow the Texans to adequately rebuild the rest of this roster long-term.

The Texans seem to be focused on the short-term in their coaching search, interviewing several older former head coaches like Jim Caldwell, Leslie Frazier, and Marvin Lewis. They seem more likely to hire a steady hand that has experience being in playoff races to assure their veterans they plan on continuing to try to compete, rather than rebuilding with a young head coach. 

Caldwell is reportedly the favorite for the job. He’s an unexciting hire who has never really moved the needle as a head coach in his first two opportunities with the Colts and Lions, but he’s guided talented teams and has a winning record overall, including playoff appearances in 4 of 7 seasons (2-4). 

A football lifer, Caldwell, 65, coached in some capacity at the NFL or collegiate level for 41 straight seasons from 1977-2017, including a stint as Wake Forest’s head coach and pair of Super Bowl victories, as the Colts quarterbacks coach and then as the Ravens’ offensive coordinator. Caldwell unretired for a year to be an assistant in Miami in 2019, before sitting out 2020, and seems likely to be willing to return a third time in 2021, for the right opportunity.

Prediction: Jim Caldwell, Former Detroit Lions Head Coach

5. Atlanta Falcons

Pros – More talented than 4-12 record, #4 pick

Cons – Aging roster, limited financial flexibility

The Falcons went just 4-12 last season, but their four losses in which they had a 95% chance to win in the 4th quarter, their 2-8 record in one score games, and their -18 point differential suggest this is a team that is a lot more talented than that record. That record also gets them the 4th overall pick. However, they have a relatively old roster without a lot of financial flexibility (3rd least cap space in the league) and might max out as a .500 team with this roster. 

The Falcons seem committed to keeping highly paid stars Matt Ryan and Julio Jones as they go into their mid-30s, so the incoming head coach will be expected to compete relatively quickly, which is possible, but not given, with this roster. The Falcons can add to this roster with their high draft pick, but they could also use the pick on a quarterback with an eye on the future, as Ryan is going into his age 36 season and isn’t getting cheaper. 

Hiring a young offensive coach may make that more likely and reports suggest they’re down to either Arthur Smith or divisional rival Joe Brady, who coordinated an overachieving Panthers offense in his first season as an NFL offensive coordinator, after coordinating a record setting offense at the college level with LSU in 2019. Also experienced as an assistant with fellow division rival New Orleans, Brady has an impressive resume for a 31-year-old and seems likely to get a shot at a head coach job, if not this off-season then within the next couple years.

Prediction: Joe Brady, Carolina Panthers Offensive Coordinator

6. New York Jets 

Pros – #2 pick, cap space

Cons – Ownership, weak roster, quarterback situation

This job would have been a lot more attractive had the Jets held on to the #1 overall pick and had the rights to select Trevor Lawrence. The Jets still have the #2 pick and the cap space to add to this roster this off-season, but they have an unfavorable ownership situation and they have the kind of roster where the cap space they have and the #2 overall pick don’t seem like enough to turn this around quickly. 

The #2 overall pick plays into the uncertainty at quarterback, where the Jets will have to decide between keeping 2018 3rd overall pick Sam Darnold, guaranteeing him 25 million for injury in 2022, and trading away the #2 pick for more draft assets, or using the #2 pick on his replacement and trading Darnold for lesser draft assets. Darnold is only going into his age 24 season and could still develop into a starter somewhere else, while any quarterback they take #2 overall would not be a sure thing, but Darnold’s contract situation is much less favorable than a rookie’s and passing on a franchise quarterback in the draft could easily come back to haunt them as well. Whoever the quarterback is, the Jets will undoubtedly have to do more to support them in 2021.

The Jets may be passed over by some of the best coaching candidates, but they could still get a good candidate from division rival Buffalo. Daboll has only interviewed with the Chargers aside from the Jets and, though the Chargers seem to like Daboll, I have them going elsewhere in this scenario, leaving the Jets to get the guy responsible for helping develop Josh Allen into a franchise quarterback. The Jets would be hoping he could do the same in New York, either with Darnold or a rookie like Justin Fields or Zack Wilson. Daboll, 45, also has experience on Bill Belichick’s staff in New England and on Nick Saban’s staff at the University of Alabama, winning championships in both spots.

Prediction: Brian Daboll, Buffalo Bills Offensive Coordinator

7. Detroit Lions

Pros – Some good players, #7 pick

Cons – Ownership, mediocre roster, limited financial flexibility

The Lions aren’t the worst team on this list, but it was hard to find big pluses for them. They do have some talented players in Matt Stafford, DeAndre Swift, TJ Hockenson, Taylor Decker, Frank Ragnow, and Trey Flowers, as well as pending free agent Kenny Golladay and they have the 7th overall pick to add to this team, but they don’t have a lot of financial flexibility, even before re-signing or franchise tagging Golladay, and they may be maxed out with their current roster. 

Injuries were a big part of the problem for this team in 2021, most notably Golladay and Flowers, leading to a 5-11 finish, but, even with better health in 2021, it’s hard to see this as much better than a middling team. They could opt to rebuild, using the 7th overall pick on a quarterback and either sitting him for a year or trading Stafford to get draft compensation and financial flexibility to build around their rookie quarterback, but it wouldn’t be a quick rebuild. 

Robert Saleh, 41, is one of the most in-demand young head coaching candidates, coordinating a dominant 49ers defense to a Super Bowl appearance in 2019 and then arguably doing a better job in 2020, when the 49ers still finished in the top-10 in most defensive metrics, despite missing half of their roster. He could probably get a better job than this, but he’s been rumored to Detroit because he’s from the area and they could certainly use his defensive minded coaching after fielding arguably the worst defense in the league last season.

Prediction: Robert Saleh, San Francisco 49ers Defensive Coordinator

33. Cincinnati Bengals – OT Ezra Cleveland (Boise State)

Teams typically pick another offensive player after drafting a quarterback in the first round. The Bengals are pretty set with skill position players, but they could definitely use help on the offensive line. Ezra Cleveland could have easily gone in the first round and could be an instant upgrade at the right tackle position.

34. Indianapolis Colts – WR Denzel Mims (Baylor)

The Colts apparently had their eyes on Brandon Aiyuk, but the 49ers took him in the first round. Maybe they’ll target another wide receiver at 34, given how deep this wide receiver class is. They need another receiver for the long-term to go with TY Hilton and last year’s 2nd round pick Parris Campbell.

35. Detroit Lions – DE Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State)

The Lions surprisingly didn’t move down from the 3rd pick, even though they likely still could have gotten Jeff Okudah a few picks later and even though they have needs all across the roster. They should just take the best available player left on the board at 35 and Yetur Gross-Matos, an expected first round pick, would make a lot of sense for them, given their need for another defensive end opposite Trey Flowers.

36. New York Giants – S Grant Delpit (LSU)

Surprisingly no safeties went in the first round. It’s not a great safety class, but one or both of Grant Delpit and Xavier McKinney were expected to go in the first. Perhaps the Giants will be the first team to take a safety this year and select one of those two to start opposite Jabrill Peppers. This could be either Delpit or McKinney, but Delpit seems to be higher rated overall.

37. New England Patriots – OLB Zach Baun (Wisconsin)

The Patriots traded down from 23, which made sense because they wouldn’t have picked again until 87 had they selected there. They may still be able to get whoever they were targeting at 23 at 37. Baun would have made some sense for them in the first round and is a much better value at this point in the draft. He’s a hybrid defensive end/linebacker and will fit in perfectly in New England in the old Kyle Van Noy role.

38. Carolina Panthers – CB Jaylon Johnson (Utah)

Top cornerback James Bradberry was a big loss in free agency and the Panthers didn’t do anything to replace him. They’re very thin at cornerback, so a rookie could play a big role. This could easily be a position they target at the top of the second round.

39. Miami Dolphins – RB D’Andre Swift (Georgia)

Some thought the Dolphins were going to take a running back at 30 after moving down with the Packers, but they went cornerback instead. Maybe they are targeting a running back with this pick. They have probably the thinnest running back depth chart in the league, so they have to address the position at some point.

40. Houston Texans – DT Ross Blacklock (TCU)

The Texans are pretty thin on the defensive line after losing DJ Reader to the Bengals in free agency. They don’t have many picks to work with because of their asinine trade spree over the past year with Bill O’Brien in charge of everything, but they need to address the defensive line at some point. Blacklock would be a good value if he fell to 40.

41. Cleveland Browns – DE AJ Epenesa (Iowa)

The Browns could use a long-term bookend for Myles Garrett. Olivier Vernon is highly paid (15.5 million in 2020) and in the final year of his contract, so he might not be around much longer and they don’t have great depth at the position either.

42. Jacksonville Jaguars – RB Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin)

The Jaguars are reportedly trying to trade Leonard Fournette. Even if they end up keeping him for 2020, he’s going into the final year of his contract, so I don’t expect him to be around beyond this season. The Jaguars lack another good option behind him on the depth chart though, so they’ll have to address this position in the draft.

43. Chicago Bears – CB Kristian Fulton (LSU)

The Bears had to move on from starting cornerback Prince Amukamara this off-season for cap purposes and didn’t have the financial flexibility to find a real replacement. If the season was to start today, they’d likely be starting former Steelers first round pick Artie Burns. The Bears didn’t have their first rounder because of the Khalil Mack trade, but they have two picks in the 2nd round and should look to add a cornerback who could play immediately if needed.

44. Indianapolis Colts – S Xavier McKinney (Alabama)

The Colts could use a better starting safety option opposite Malik Hooker. Xavier McKinney was considered a potential first round pick and top safety off the board, so he’d be a great value at this point.

45. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – RB JK Dobbins (Ohio State)

The Buccaneers continue adding help for Tom Brady, after drafting offensive tackle Mekhi Becton in the first round. Running back is a big need as well, with the Buccaneers needing a more reliable complement to Ronald Jones. Look for them to take one of the day 2 running backs.

46. Denver Broncos – OT Josh Jones (Houston)

The Broncos got young Drew Lock some receiving help in the first round with Jerry Jeudy. Now they get him some help upfront. Left tackle Garret Bolles has been a disappointment since going in the first round in 2017 because of his extreme tendency to commit penalties and could be on his last chance in 2020. Jones gives them insurance at left tackle and should have the versatility to kick inside to guard if needed.

47. Atlanta Falcons – DE Julian Okwara (Notre Dame)

The Falcons passed on K’Lavon Chaisson in the first round and filled a bigger need at cornerback, but they could still use edge rush help. Look for them to target this position on day 2 as they continue to try to build their defense.

48. New York Jets – WR Tee Higgins (Clemson)

Most expected the Jets to go wide receiver in the first round, but they took an offensive lineman instead. Perhaps they love the depth of this wide receiver class and think they can get a great value on day 2. Tee Higgins in the middle of the 2nd round would qualify as a great value and would be a big addition for a Jets team that lacks a long-term #1 receiver and needs an immediate option to play in 3-wide receiver sets with Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder.

49. Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Jacob Eason (Washington)

If there’s one thing the Steelers learned in Ben Roethlisberger’s absence last season, it’s that neither Mason Rudolph nor Devlin Hodges are their quarterback of the future. With Roethlisberger going into his age 38 season and coming off of a serious injury, the Steelers need a good backup plan and a long-term option at the position.

50. Chicago Bears – WR KJ Hamler (Penn State)

The Bears need to find a wide receiver to play in three wide receiver sets with Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller. Hamler may remind Matt Nagy of Tyreek Hill, or at least of Taylor Gabriel.

51. Dallas Cowboys – S Antoine Winfield (Minnesota)

The Cowboys had CeeDee Lamb fall into their lap in the first round, but had that not happened many were expecting them to take a defensive back. Winfield could either provide depth at cornerback or play safety long-term, with HaHa Clinton-Dix only on a one-year deal.

52. Los Angeles Rams – OLB Josh Uche (Michigan)

The Rams lost both Dante Fowler and Clay Matthews this off-season. They signed Leonard Floyd, but he’s not much of a pass rusher and he’s only on a one-year deal. Samson Ebukam, the other projected starter, is also set to hit free agency next off-season. They desperately need a talented young edge rusher.

53. Philadelphia Eagles – S Kyle Dugger (Lenoir-Rhyne)

The Eagles lost Malcolm Jenkins this off-season and didn’t bring in an obvious replacement. After addressing their glaring need at wide receiver in the first round, I expect the Eagles to turn their attention to defensive needs like safety on day 2.

54. Buffalo Bills – DE Jabari Zuinga (Florida)

The Bills lost Shaq Lawson and Lorenzo Alexander this off-season, so they need to replenish depth at the edge defender spot. They signed Mario Addison in free agency, but need one more player in the mix. A young player makes sense, with Addison going into his age 33 season and fellow starter Jerry Hughes going into his age 32 season.

55. Baltimore Ravens – WR Michael Pittman (USC)

The Ravens aren’t a passing team and when they do pass they mostly feature tight ends, but the Ravens still need to get Lamar Jackson a reliable wide receiver option opposite Marquise Brown. Their lack of talent at wide receiver was evident in their playoff loss to the Titans. Pittman is a bigger player who would complement the speedier Brown well.

56. Miami Dolphins – DT Marlon Davidson (Auburn)

The Dolphins pick for the 5th time already, but still have plenty of needs they can fill. Davidson is a great value at this point and would provide much needed depth behind Christian Wilkins and Davon Godcheaux at defensive tackle.

57. Los Angeles Rams – MLB Logan Wilson (Wyoming)

Dante Fowler isn’t the only linebacker the Rams lost to a big contract elsewhere this off-season, with middle linebacker Cory Littleton signing with the Raiders. They badly need help at the middle linebacker spot in his absence, so this should be a priority position for them to address on day 2.

58. Minnesota Vikings – DE Curtis Weaver (Boise State)

The Vikings replaced Stefon Diggs and Xavier Rhodes in the first round, but still have other key departures to replace, including defensive end Everson Griffen. Griffen could still return, but he’s going into his age 33 season, so the Vikings need to think about the future at defensive end either way.

59. Seattle Seahawks – DT Jordan Elliott (Missouri)

The Seahawks re-signed Jarran Reed, but they lost Quinton Jefferson and Al Woods, leaving them thin at the defensive tackle position. Unless the Seahawks bizarrely take another linebacker, defensive tackle will likely be a position they focus on during the draft’s 2nd day.

60. Baltimore Ravens – G Matt Hennessy (Temple)

Losing right guard Marshal Yanda to retirement is a huge blow because he was still playing at a high level in 2019. Look for the Ravens to replace him early in the draft. 

61. Tennessee Titans – CB Trevon Diggs (Alabama)

The Titans haven’t totally closed the door on re-signing Logan Ryan, but he wants a significant contract and the Titans already have significant money committed to Malcolm Butler and will soon need to lock-up fellow starting cornerback Adoree Jackson long-term on a big contract. The Titans could take a cornerback on day 2 to give them a cheaper option and close the door on bringing back Ryan.

62. Green Bay Packers – TE Cole Kmet (Notre Dame)

The Packers almost have to get Aaron Rodgers some help on day 2 right? It’s hard to imagine Rodgers is taking the news well that his long-term replacement has been drafted, but maybe the Packers can smooth things over by getting him some much needed pass catchers. Even if that’s not how they’re thinking about it, the Packers have pressing needs at wide receiver and tight end, so it would make sense either way.

63. Kansas City Chiefs – G John Simpson (Clemson)

The Chiefs need cornerback help, but if there isn’t a cornerback who fits the range, the Chiefs won’t force it in the 2nd round. Instead, they could address a need like the offensive line, where they have an open spot at left guard. Simpson could compete immediately with Andrew Wylie for the starting job.

64. Seattle Seahawks – OT Matt Peart (Connecticut)

The Seahawks added Brandon Shell in free agency, but he’s a borderline starting option and could be pushed by a rookie. They also need a long-term option at left tackle, where Duane Brown is going into his age 35 season.

65. Cincinnati Bengals – MLB Malik Harrison (Ohio State)
66. Washington Redskins – TE Albert Okwuegbunam (Missouri)
67. Detroit Lions – DT Justin Madubuike (Texas A&M)
68. New York Jets – OLB Bradlee Anae (Utah)
69. Carolina Panthers – OLB Akeem Davis-Gaither (Appalachian State)
70. Miami Dolphins – OT Lucas Niang (TCU)
71. New England Patriots – TE Adam Trautman (Dayton)
72. Arizona Cardinals – OT Prince Tega Wanogho (Auburn)
73. Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Raekwon Davis (Alabama)
74. Cleveland Browns – WR Gabe Davis (Central Florida)
75. Indianapolis Colts – OLB Willie Gay (Mississippi State)
76. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – OLB Terrell Lewis (Alabama)
77. Denver Broncos – DE Neville Gallimore (Oklahoma)
78. Atlanta Falcons – RB Cam Akers (Florida State)
79. New York Jets – CB Darnay Holmes (UCLA)
80. Las Vegas Raiders – G Robert Hunt (Louisiana)
81. Las Vegas Raiders – QB Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma)
82. Dallas Cowboys – DE Jonathan Greenard (Florida)
83. Denver Broncos – WR Laviska Shenault (Colorado)
84. Los Angeles Rams – WR Lynn Bowden (Kentucky)
85. Detroit Lions – OT Ben Bartch (St. John’s MN)
86. Buffalo Bills – RB AJ Dillon (Boston College)
87. New England Patriots – S Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois)
88. New Orleans Saints – WR Bryan Edwards (South Carolina)
89. Minnesota Vikings – DT James Lynch (Baylor)
90. Houston Texans – OLB Darrell Taylor (Tennessee)
91. Las Vegas Raiders – OLB Jacob Phillips (LSU)
92. Baltimore Ravens – OLB Alton Robinson (Syracuse)
93. Tennessee Titans – OLB Khalid Kareem (Notre Dame)
94. Green Bay Packers – WR Devin Duvernay (Texas)
95. Denver Broncos – G Tyler Biadasz (Wisconsin)
96. Kansas City Chiefs – CB Cameron Dantzler (Mississippi State)
97. Cleveland Browns – DT Jason Strowbridge (North Carolina)
98. New England Patriots – MLB Joe Bachie (Michigan State)
99. New York Giants – OLB Alex Highsmith (Charlotte)
100. New England Patriots – QB Jake Fromm (Georgia)
101. Seattle Seahawks – TE Harrison Bryant (Florida Atlantic)
102. Pittsburgh Steelers – RB Eno Benjamin (Arizona State)
103. Philadelphia Eagles – OLB Davion Taylor (Colorado)
104. Los Angeles Rams – RB Darrynton Evans (Appalachian State)
105. Minnesota Vikings – G Jonah Jackson (Ohio State)
106. Baltimore Ravens – RB Joshua Kelly (UCLA)