Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 9

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 NO 190 23 14 19 13 3 0 81.30%
2 DEN 158 28 8 36 4 0 0 79.49%
3 GB 166 26 12 28 7 3 2 78.69%
4 IND 213 28 16 30 15 4 1 78.50%
5 DAL 182 23 16 27 15 1 0 77.65%
6 KC 151 19 12 28 7 2 0 77.63%
7 SD 167 23 14 35 5 2 0 77.24%
8 CHI 179 21 9 30 15 5 0 77.22%
9 PIT 186 20 15 35 8 4 0 76.87%
10 BAL 178 23 21 22 12 6 0 76.72%
11 SEA 138 18 14 29 6 2 1 75.00%
12 NE 170 22 22 34 5 4 0 74.71%
13 CAR 170 16 18 35 10 2 0 74.10%
14 SF 139 15 16 27 7 4 0 74.04%
15 ATL 166 22 10 35 14 6 1 74.02%
16 NYG 151 19 7 36 13 4 0 73.91%
17 STL 140 14 11 31 11 3 0 73.33%
18 MIA 150 16 16 26 12 7 0 73.13%
19 WAS 166 19 14 37 16 3 0 72.55%
20 ARZ 137 15 16 39 5 1 0 71.36%
21 CIN 135 17 19 31 8 3 0 71.36%
22 CLE 139 17 13 40 5 5 0 71.23%
23 DET 153 17 19 37 11 2 0 71.13%
24 PHI 154 16 15 36 17 2 0 70.83%
25 HOU 152 17 17 38 13 2 0 70.71%
26 TB 123 14 9 32 14 3 1 69.90%
27 TEN 138 15 13 41 11 4 2 68.30%
28 NYJ 153 15 15 42 18 3 0 68.29%
29 MIN 147 11 19 44 12 3 0 66.95%
30 OAK 113 12 8 40 13 2 0 66.49%
31 JAX 143 13 14 45 18 4 0 65.82%
32 BUF 135 17 19 47 11 3 1 65.24%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 BUF 164 15 19 43 18 3 0 68.32%
2 DET 148 13 12 45 12 4 1 68.51%
3 PHI 148 18 13 44 10 4 0 70.04%
4 KC 128 12 16 35 5 3 0 70.35%
5 MIA 133 16 13 31 14 4 0 70.62%
6 MIN 151 19 12 45 11 2 0 70.83%
7 BAL 155 13 18 32 12 5 1 71.19%
8 WAS 150 20 13 45 8 2 0 71.43%
9 NYJ 140 25 14 48 3 0 0 71.74%
10 IND 157 21 10 42 12 6 0 71.77%
11 CLE 156 17 12 39 11 5 1 71.78%
12 HOU 167 19 13 39 17 3 0 72.09%
13 DEN 146 17 11 39 8 4 1 72.12%
14 DAL 141 17 11 33 13 4 0 72.15%
15 ARZ 145 16 11 35 14 2 0 72.20%
16 JAX 166 18 18 38 8 5 0 72.73%
17 NE 173 18 17 32 16 5 0 73.18%
18 NYG 142 18 13 29 13 2 0 73.73%
19 SEA 137 15 13 31 7 2 1 73.79%
20 PIT 166 20 19 33 11 1 1 74.10%
21 SD 152 19 8 35 9 6 1 74.35%
22 CIN 171 16 19 25 12 5 1 75.10%
23 TEN 191 21 19 35 11 4 0 75.44%
24 ATL 177 23 21 30 13 0 0 75.76%
25 SF 136 18 6 30 11 2 0 75.86%
26 OAK 149 19 15 28 6 4 0 76.02%
27 CHI 166 22 21 22 12 4 0 76.11%
28 STL 142 19 13 25 8 2 0 77.03%
29 CAR 174 24 16 27 14 2 0 77.04%
30 TB 171 23 19 26 10 0 0 77.91%
31 GB 188 21 12 26 15 6 0 77.99%
32 NO 152 19 14 25 7 1 1 78.08%

 

Overall

1 DEN 7.36%
2 KC 7.27%
3 IND 6.73%
4 BAL 5.53%
5 DAL 5.51%
6 NO 3.22%
7 SD 2.89%
8 PIT 2.76%
9 DET 2.62%
10 MIA 2.51%
11 NE 1.53%
12 SEA 1.21%
13 WAS 1.12%
14 CHI 1.11%
15 PHI 0.79%
16 GB 0.70%
17 NYG 0.18%
18 CLE -0.55%
19 ARZ -0.84%
20 HOU -1.38%
21 ATL -1.74%
22 SF -1.82%
23 CAR -2.94%
24 BUF -3.08%
25 NYJ -3.45%
26 STL -3.70%
27 CIN -3.74%
28 MIN -3.88%
29 JAX -6.90%
30 TEN -7.14%
31 TB -8.01%
32 OAK -9.53%

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