Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 13

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 NO 291 34 18 35 20 5 0 80.65%
2 GB 236 39 18 37 8 3 2 80.17%
3 DEN 259 42 13 50 12 6 0 78.80%
4 NE 261 36 27 45 9 4 0 77.75%
5 PIT 259 29 20 45 14 5 0 77.42%
6 IND 276 36 25 42 19 6 1 77.04%
7 BAL 241 31 24 37 15 6 0 76.84%
8 KC 226 29 17 49 10 3 0 76.35%
9 DAL 234 32 21 40 19 2 1 76.22%
10 SEA 227 28 26 40 9 5 1 75.89%
11 MIA 247 28 25 38 17 8 0 75.76%
12 CHI 236 28 11 45 21 10 0 75.21%
13 ATL 228 28 19 49 17 6 1 73.56%
14 SD 214 26 19 53 12 3 0 73.39%
15 NYG 237 29 10 56 22 10 0 73.08%
16 ARZ 210 23 20 61 8 1 0 72.14%
17 CIN 215 26 25 50 15 4 0 71.94%
18 CAR 228 22 22 54 19 3 0 71.84%
19 PHI 249 29 25 53 27 4 0 71.83%
20 SF 216 22 24 51 15 5 0 71.47%
21 WAS 219 24 20 52 21 4 0 71.47%
22 CLE 232 25 24 59 13 8 0 71.19%
23 HOU 214 21 24 54 16 4 1 70.36%
24 STL 201 20 20 54 19 4 0 69.50%
25 DET 204 19 28 51 14 5 0 69.47%
26 TB 195 21 17 49 24 6 1 69.01%
27 MIN 201 18 24 58 14 4 0 68.65%
28 NYJ 201 18 20 57 19 6 0 68.22%
29 TEN 182 22 15 59 17 5 2 67.55%
30 BUF 190 22 26 59 14 7 2 66.25%
31 JAX 193 18 16 64 24 7 0 65.53%
32 OAK 167 19 14 70 21 2 0 63.48%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 BUF 215 19 23 61 22 3 0 68.22%
2 ARZ 206 20 20 55 20 5 0 69.33%
3 PHI 225 30 18 65 19 7 0 70.05%
4 CLE 237 24 21 60 20 6 1 70.73%
5 MIA 204 23 22 42 20 8 1 70.94%
6 SF 201 24 12 53 22 5 0 70.98%
7 DET 215 20 17 59 15 4 1 71.00%
8 WAS 202 28 16 61 12 3 0 71.43%
9 KC 214 19 22 52 9 10 0 71.47%
10 DEN 226 29 20 62 13 4 1 71.83%
11 SEA 206 22 19 50 15 3 1 72.15%
12 BAL 217 23 20 49 16 6 1 72.29%
13 NE 237 23 24 43 20 12 0 72.42%
14 SD 205 25 16 50 13 7 1 72.56%
15 IND 223 30 12 58 17 8 0 72.70%
16 JAX 229 28 24 51 14 5 1 73.01%
17 HOU 245 26 17 52 24 6 0 73.24%
18 PIT 217 27 24 48 14 1 1 73.49%
19 OAK 229 29 26 54 8 5 0 73.50%
20 NYJ 206 33 19 58 7 2 0 73.54%
21 MIN 220 28 16 54 14 4 0 73.81%
22 DAL 210 27 11 48 18 7 0 73.83%
23 CHI 214 30 28 35 18 5 0 73.94%
24 STL 223 25 19 47 17 4 0 74.03%
25 CIN 254 23 25 46 16 7 2 74.26%
26 TB 241 31 29 47 16 1 0 74.52%
27 NYG 229 32 22 44 19 3 0 74.79%
28 ATL 251 29 30 40 21 1 0 75.27%
29 GB 251 26 16 38 23 11 0 75.89%
30 CAR 240 33 21 45 17 3 0 76.04%
31 TEN 264 29 27 47 14 4 0 76.10%
32 NO 233 29 21 42 11 1 1 77.51%

 

Differential

1 DEN 6.96%
2 NE 5.33%
3 KC 4.87%
4 MIA 4.82%
5 BAL 4.55%
6 IND 4.34%
7 GB 4.28%
8 PIT 3.93%
9 SEA 3.74%
10 NO 3.13%
11 ARZ 2.81%
12 DAL 2.39%
13 PHI 1.78%
14 CHI 1.27%
15 SD 0.84%
16 SF 0.49%
17 CLE 0.46%
18 WAS 0.04%
19 DET -1.53%
20 ATL -1.71%
21 NYG -1.71%
22 BUF -1.97%
23 CIN -2.32%
24 HOU -2.88%
25 CAR -4.21%
26 STL -4.53%
27 MIN -5.16%
28 NYJ -5.31%
29 TB -5.51%
30 JAX -7.48%
31 TEN -8.55%
32 OAK -10.02%

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s