Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 14

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 NO 311 39 18 41 20 5 0 80.65%
2 GB 260 41 23 38 8 3 2 80.27%
3 DEN 280 44 18 54 13 6 0 78.07%
4 NE 281 39 28 49 9 4 0 78.05%
5 PIT 295 32 24 47 16 6 0 77.86%
6 BAL 265 34 28 38 15 6 0 77.46%
7 IND 295 42 25 45 22 6 1 77.29%
8 DAL 250 33 22 45 22 3 1 75.27%
9 SEA 243 29 30 44 9 6 1 75.14%
10 MIA 263 29 29 42 18 8 0 75.06%
11 KC 237 30 18 54 13 4 0 75.00%
12 SD 245 30 21 54 14 3 0 74.93%
13 CHI 254 30 12 51 23 10 0 74.74%
14 ATL 250 30 24 52 18 6 1 73.49%
15 NYG 259 32 12 61 25 10 0 72.93%
16 PHI 275 32 29 56 28 4 0 72.41%
17 CAR 251 23 24 58 20 3 0 72.30%
18 ARZ 228 24 21 66 11 1 0 71.79%
19 CIN 234 28 25 56 18 4 0 71.78%
20 HOU 238 27 26 57 17 4 1 71.62%
21 WAS 243 27 22 58 22 6 0 71.43%
22 SF 232 22 25 56 18 5 0 70.95%
23 DET 232 23 30 54 15 6 0 70.83%
24 CLE 251 26 26 65 16 9 0 70.48%
25 STL 218 26 21 60 19 4 0 70.11%
26 MIN 213 20 25 64 14 4 0 68.53%
27 TB 209 22 19 55 25 7 1 68.34%
28 NYJ 219 19 24 61 20 6 0 68.19%
29 TEN 201 24 15 64 21 5 2 67.77%
30 JAX 211 19 18 71 24 7 0 65.71%
31 BUF 205 23 31 64 16 7 2 65.52%
32 OAK 184 19 14 78 26 3 0 62.65%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 BUF 234 20 25 67 25 4 0 67.73%
2 PHI 241 31 19 70 22 8 0 69.57%
3 ARZ 228 22 25 58 21 5 0 69.64%
4 CLE 252 25 26 65 22 6 1 69.77%
5 SF 217 25 16 57 22 6 0 70.55%
6 MIA 222 24 26 46 21 8 1 70.69%
7 DEN 237 30 21 67 16 5 1 70.82%
8 DET 233 22 18 65 17 4 1 70.83%
9 KC 235 21 27 56 10 10 0 71.31%
10 SEA 222 22 20 55 18 3 1 71.55%
11 WAS 221 34 16 64 15 3 0 72.24%
12 STL 240 25 19 55 22 5 0 72.40%
13 IND 247 33 14 64 18 10 0 72.54%
14 JAX 251 31 26 56 17 5 1 72.87%
15 NYJ 222 34 23 62 8 2 0 72.93%
16 HOU 264 28 17 57 28 6 0 73.00%
17 NE 261 25 29 44 20 12 0 73.15%
18 CIN 268 24 27 52 17 8 2 73.37%
19 SD 229 28 20 51 13 7 1 73.64%
20 OAK 246 35 27 60 8 5 0 73.75%
21 BAL 248 27 22 50 18 6 1 73.92%
22 PIT 237 32 24 54 14 1 1 74.10%
23 MIN 243 29 18 58 15 4 0 74.11%
24 TB 260 33 29 53 19 1 0 74.18%
25 NYG 247 33 24 51 19 3 0 74.27%
26 DAL 236 30 15 51 19 7 0 74.30%
27 ATL 269 30 31 45 24 1 0 74.75%
28 CHI 242 34 30 38 19 6 0 74.80%
29 CAR 252 35 22 51 17 3 0 75.53%
30 GB 271 29 17 42 23 11 0 76.34%
31 TEN 288 35 29 50 15 4 0 76.72%
32 NO 269 32 25 44 13 2 1 77.98%

 

Overall

1 DEN 7.25%
2 NE 4.90%
3 IND 4.75%
4 MIA 4.37%
5 GB 3.93%
6 PIT 3.75%
7 KC 3.69%
8 SEA 3.58%
9 BAL 3.54%
10 PHI 2.84%
11 NO 2.67%
12 ARZ 2.16%
13 SD 1.29%
14 DAL 0.96%
15 CLE 0.71%
16 SF 0.40%
17 DET 0.00%
18 CHI -0.06%
19 WAS -0.81%
20 ATL -1.26%
21 NYG -1.34%
22 HOU -1.38%
23 CIN -1.59%
1 BUF -2.22%
2 STL -2.29%
3 CAR -3.23%
4 NYJ -4.74%
5 MIN -5.59%
6 TB -5.83%
7 JAX -7.15%
8 TEN -8.95%
9 OAK -11.10%

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