Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 15

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 GB 288 46 26 39 8 4 2 80.87%
2 NO 329 40 20 46 22 6 0 79.70%
3 BAL 291 38 28 42 16 6 0 78.15%
4 PIT 320 37 26 53 16 6 0 77.95%
5 DEN 295 47 19 57 16 6 0 77.73%
6 NE 305 41 31 54 11 4 0 77.58%
7 IND 318 45 27 52 26 7 1 76.26%
8 DAL 271 38 24 47 22 3 1 76.11%
9 CHI 277 34 12 55 25 10 0 75.30%
10 SEA 271 32 31 50 11 7 1 75.19%
11 KC 256 32 18 58 15 6 0 74.81%
12 MIA 279 30 31 47 18 9 0 74.64%
13 ATL 276 35 26 54 19 6 1 74.58%
14 SD 258 31 21 62 15 4 0 73.91%
15 CAR 275 28 26 62 20 3 0 73.19%
16 NYG 278 34 17 65 26 10 0 72.56%
17 HOU 257 30 28 62 17 4 1 71.93%
18 ARZ 246 25 26 70 11 1 0 71.50%
19 PHI 284 34 29 64 30 4 0 71.46%
20 DET 254 27 32 57 16 8 0 71.32%
21 CIN 250 31 25 63 20 5 0 71.32%
22 SF 250 23 28 60 20 5 0 70.73%
23 STL 237 28 24 64 19 4 0 70.48%
24 WAS 256 27 22 64 24 9 0 70.40%
25 CLE 265 27 28 74 18 9 0 69.36%
26 MIN 232 22 28 67 16 4 1 68.65%
27 NYJ 238 20 29 65 22 6 0 67.89%
28 TB 224 24 20 61 28 8 1 67.76%
29 TEN 213 24 16 70 24 7 2 66.57%
30 BUF 229 25 32 67 19 8 2 66.49%
31 JAX 228 20 20 75 25 9 0 65.78%
32 OAK 203 22 15 83 26 4 0 63.74%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 BUF 249 23 26 70 28 4 0 68.00%
2 CLE 275 28 28 72 26 7 1 69.34%
3 ARZ 247 24 25 62 23 7 0 69.85%
4 DET 248 24 19 71 20 5 1 70.10%
5 PHI 269 34 20 76 24 9 0 70.14%
6 SEA 231 24 20 63 20 3 1 70.44%
7 SF 236 28 17 62 22 7 0 70.97%
8 KC 253 22 32 60 10 10 0 71.06%
9 IND 261 34 16 73 20 10 0 71.26%
10 STL 253 25 19 61 24 8 0 71.28%
11 DEN 261 32 22 70 19 6 1 71.29%
12 MIA 248 28 26 50 22 8 1 72.06%
13 NE 274 26 29 52 21 13 0 72.29%
14 WAS 240 36 19 68 15 3 0 72.44%
15 HOU 281 29 19 61 29 8 0 72.60%
16 NYJ 241 36 26 65 10 2 1 72.70%
17 NYG 259 33 25 57 22 5 0 72.82%
18 JAX 270 34 28 61 17 5 1 73.08%
19 OAK 264 36 30 64 10 5 0 73.35%
20 MIN 262 30 23 62 17 4 0 73.37%
21 PIT 253 35 24 61 16 2 1 73.47%
22 SD 253 30 23 56 15 7 1 73.51%
23 BAL 264 28 24 55 18 7 1 73.55%
24 CIN 293 29 29 58 17 8 2 73.85%
25 TB 282 37 31 56 20 3 0 74.36%
26 CAR 270 36 24 56 19 4 0 74.82%
27 DAL 259 34 15 55 21 7 0 74.94%
28 CHI 263 39 32 40 19 6 0 75.69%
29 ATL 297 35 34 46 24 2 0 75.80%
30 TEN 307 37 34 54 16 4 0 76.11%
31 GB 297 34 19 44 24 11 0 77.16%
32 NO 293 37 27 48 13 2 1 78.38%

 

Differential

1 DEN 6.44%
2 NE 5.29%
3 IND 5.00%
4 SEA 4.74%
5 BAL 4.60%
6 PIT 4.48%
7 KC 3.75%
8 GB 3.72%
9 MIA 2.58%
10 ARZ 1.66%
11 PHI 1.32%
12 NO 1.31%
13 DET 1.22%
14 DAL 1.17%
15 SD 0.41%
16 CLE 0.02%
17 SF -0.24%
18 NYG -0.26%
19 CHI -0.39%
20 HOU -0.67%
21 STL -0.80%
22 ATL -1.22%
23 BUF -1.51%
24 CAR -1.63%
25 WAS -2.04%
26 CIN -2.53%
27 MIN -4.72%
28 NYJ -4.81%
29 TB -6.60%
30 JAX -7.29%
31 TEN -9.53%
32 OAK -9.61%

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s