Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 16

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 GB 309 47 29 45 10 4 3 79.64%
2 NO 354 44 22 51 23 6 0 79.60%
3 PIT 342 39 28 56 16 6 0 78.23%
4 NE 328 45 33 57 12 4 0 77.87%
5 BAL 308 39 32 46 17 6 0 77.46%
6 DEN 313 48 24 60 16 6 0 77.30%
7 DAL 297 43 25 52 23 3 1 76.58%
8 IND 338 47 28 59 28 7 1 75.79%
9 SEA 289 34 32 54 12 7 1 75.29%
10 ATL 296 37 28 57 20 6 1 74.83%
11 CHI 293 36 12 61 28 12 0 74.43%
12 MIA 302 31 34 51 20 11 0 74.16%
13 KC 272 35 21 65 16 6 0 73.98%
14 SD 278 32 24 66 17 4 0 73.63%
15 CAR 303 29 31 65 21 3 0 73.45%
16 NYG 295 37 18 71 27 11 0 72.33%
17 CIN 274 34 28 65 21 5 0 72.13%
18 PHI 303 37 31 67 34 4 0 71.43%
19 HOU 271 30 29 69 19 7 1 70.66%
20 DET 265 28 35 63 16 8 0 70.60%
21 SF 264 24 28 65 20 7 0 70.59%
22 ARZ 259 25 30 78 11 1 0 70.30%
23 WAS 277 28 24 70 25 10 0 70.28%
24 STL 250 28 26 72 21 5 0 69.15%
25 MIN 253 24 31 69 18 5 1 69.08%
26 CLE 270 27 28 81 20 9 0 68.28%
27 NYJ 255 22 31 72 22 6 1 67.73%
28 TB 239 26 21 66 31 8 1 67.60%
29 TEN 230 24 19 76 25 8 2 66.15%
30 BUF 242 25 36 73 20 8 2 65.76%
31 JAX 241 20 25 80 26 11 0 64.76%
32 OAK 220 23 17 94 27 5 0 62.95%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 BUF 270 24 29 76 30 4 1 67.74%
2 ARZ 260 24 27 70 25 8 0 68.60%
3 KC 270 23 34 71 11 11 0 69.76%
4 IND 275 34 17 80 22 13 0 70.07%
5 STL 266 25 23 69 24 8 0 70.12%
6 CLE 299 31 31 74 27 7 1 70.21%
7 SEA 245 25 20 68 20 5 1 70.31%
8 DET 269 26 22 73 22 6 1 70.41%
9 PHI 295 39 21 81 25 9 0 71.06%
10 DEN 281 33 25 74 21 6 1 71.20%
11 SF 254 30 18 66 23 7 0 71.36%
12 NYJ 258 36 29 71 11 3 1 71.88%
13 NE 297 27 32 56 23 15 0 72.00%
14 BAL 277 28 29 60 19 9 1 72.10%
15 WAS 257 39 20 74 16 4 0 72.20%
16 HOU 301 31 20 68 31 8 0 72.33%
17 NYG 280 34 27 63 23 6 0 72.52%
18 MIN 273 31 26 68 17 4 0 72.55%
19 OAK 280 39 33 71 11 5 0 72.67%
20 CIN 298 29 29 65 19 8 2 72.67%
21 JAX 287 35 32 65 18 5 1 72.69%
22 MIA 271 32 28 53 23 8 1 72.84%
23 SD 271 31 28 59 15 7 1 73.30%
24 PIT 273 37 26 64 17 2 1 73.81%
25 CAR 285 38 25 61 22 4 0 74.25%
26 TB 310 38 36 59 21 3 0 74.52%
27 DAL 278 37 17 58 25 7 0 74.64%
28 TEN 324 39 36 61 16 4 1 75.47%
29 CHI 288 43 34 45 20 6 0 75.92%
30 GB 310 34 23 50 25 11 0 75.94%
31 ATL 319 37 36 49 24 2 0 76.23%
32 NO 309 39 27 54 16 4 1 77.33%

 

Differential

1 DEN 6.10%
2 NE 5.87%
3 IND 5.72%
4 BAL 5.35%
5 SEA 4.98%
6 PIT 4.42%
7 KC 4.21%
8 GB 3.70%
9 NO 2.27%
10 DAL 1.93%
11 ARZ 1.70%
12 MIA 1.33%
13 PHI 0.36%
14 SD 0.33%
15 DET 0.20%
16 NYG -0.19%
17 CIN -0.54%
18 SF -0.77%
19 CAR -0.80%
20 STL -0.97%
21 ATL -1.40%
22 CHI -1.48%
23 HOU -1.67%
24 WAS -1.92%
25 CLE -1.94%
26 BUF -1.98%
27 MIN -3.48%
28 NYJ -4.16%
29 TB -6.92%
30 JAX -7.92%
31 TEN -9.32%
32 OAK -9.71%

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