Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 17

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 GB 332 49 32 47 11 5 3 79.54%
2 NO 376 46 22 55 27 7 0 79.17%
3 PIT 361 41 30 58 16 6 0 78.52%
4 NE 347 47 34 62 13 4 0 77.71%
5 DAL 322 49 26 54 24 3 1 77.45%
6 DEN 335 51 25 66 20 6 0 76.74%
7 BAL 323 41 32 54 19 8 0 76.31%
8 SEA 312 39 35 58 12 7 1 75.65%
9 MIA 338 36 35 53 22 11 0 75.56%
10 IND 355 48 28 64 31 8 1 75.33%
11 ATL 314 39 31 62 20 6 1 74.63%
12 SD 306 36 25 70 20 4 0 74.19%
13 KC 294 35 25 66 17 7 0 74.10%
14 CHI 310 38 12 67 29 14 0 74.04%
15 CAR 330 31 33 69 23 3 0 73.82%
16 NYG 314 41 22 74 27 11 0 72.60%
17 PHI 333 40 34 69 36 4 0 72.29%
18 CIN 294 37 31 70 23 5 0 71.96%
19 DET 287 30 38 64 19 8 0 71.08%
20 SF 285 28 29 69 23 8 0 70.81%
21 WAS 298 31 26 73 27 10 0 70.75%
22 MIN 273 28 33 72 19 5 2 69.68%
23 STL 273 31 28 76 24 5 0 69.57%
24 HOU 289 31 35 77 20 7 1 69.57%
25 ARZ 276 25 32 87 12 1 0 69.52%
26 NYJ 271 24 32 77 23 6 1 67.97%
27 CLE 278 28 30 87 21 9 0 67.55%
28 TEN 249 25 21 81 25 9 2 66.50%
29 TB 245 26 22 74 32 8 1 66.42%
30 BUF 257 28 37 81 22 8 2 65.52%
31 JAX 258 23 25 87 26 11 0 65.35%
32 OAK 238 25 22 100 27 5 0 63.07%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 BUF 288 26 34 82 30 4 1 67.53%
2 ARZ 283 29 30 74 25 8 0 69.49%
3 SEA 262 25 22 77 21 5 1 69.49%
4 DET 286 28 22 79 23 8 1 70.25%
5 KC 289 25 36 73 11 11 0 70.56%
6 STL 285 29 27 72 24 8 0 70.56%
7 CLE 326 33 33 78 29 7 1 70.81%
8 BAL 295 29 35 68 20 9 1 70.90%
9 DEN 301 36 28 79 23 6 1 71.10%
10 IND 300 40 18 82 23 13 0 71.43%
11 PHI 316 42 23 84 27 9 0 71.46%
12 HOU 316 33 20 76 33 10 0 71.52%
13 NE 313 29 33 61 24 15 0 72.00%
14 OAK 295 42 34 79 13 5 0 72.01%
15 NYJ 277 38 30 76 12 3 1 72.08%
16 SF 282 34 19 70 26 7 0 72.15%
17 CIN 320 32 30 71 23 8 2 72.43%
18 JAX 306 36 34 70 18 6 1 72.61%
19 NYG 303 37 29 67 26 6 0 72.65%
20 WAS 287 42 23 76 18 4 0 73.11%
21 MIA 291 36 30 56 24 8 2 73.15%
22 CAR 293 39 27 67 23 4 0 73.29%
23 SD 292 35 29 63 18 8 1 73.32%
24 PIT 295 37 30 65 18 3 1 73.94%
25 DAL 295 38 17 63 28 8 0 74.16%
26 MIN 309 36 27 70 19 4 0 74.19%
27 GB 316 34 24 58 26 11 0 74.63%
28 TB 333 40 39 61 22 4 0 74.75%
29 TEN 341 42 36 68 16 4 1 75.39%
30 ATL 341 39 36 53 28 3 0 76.00%
31 CHI 310 45 37 46 23 6 0 76.02%
32 NO 327 41 30 59 16 4 1 76.99%

 

Differential

1 SEA 6.16%
2 NE 5.71%
3 DEN 5.64%
4 BAL 5.41%
5 GB 4.91%
6 PIT 4.57%
7 IND 3.90%
8 KC 3.54%
9 DAL 3.29%
10 MIA 2.40%
11 NO 2.19%
12 SD 0.87%
13 DET 0.83%
14 PHI 0.83%
15 CAR 0.53%
16 ARZ 0.03%
17 NYG -0.05%
18 CIN -0.47%
19 STL -1.00%
20 SF -1.33%
21 ATL -1.37%
22 HOU -1.95%
23 CHI -1.97%
24 BUF -2.01%
25 WAS -2.36%
26 CLE -3.26%
27 NYJ -4.11%
28 MIN -4.52%
29 JAX -7.26%
30 TB -8.33%
31 TEN -8.89%
32 OAK -8.94%

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s