Indianapolis Colts (5-6) at New York Jets (3-8)
The Colts get Andrew Luck back from injury this week, but still have major problems on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they struggle against the run and the pass and, on the offensive side of the ball, they’ve had major issues upfront on the offensive line and have struggled to run the football. They’re healthier now than they were earlier in the year, but still rank just 28th in first down rate differential. That’s actually one spot behind the Jets. The Colts might be a little better than that suggests given their injury situation has improved as the season has gone on, but these two teams are much more comparable than this line suggests.
This line has the Jets as 2 point home underdogs, so we’re getting a few points of line value with them. On top of that, the Jets are in good spot, as home underdogs tend to cover off of a loss as home underdogs, going 75-53 ATS since 2002 in that spot. The Colts are also just 20-22 outside of the division since 2013, including just 1-4 ATS as non-divisional road favorites. I would need at least 3 to put any money on the Jets, but I don’t think we’re going to get that. At 2, it’s a low confidence pick. The money line at +110 might be the best bet here.
New York Jets 23 Indianapolis Colts 20 Upset Pick +110
Pick against the spread: NY Jets +2