Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: 2016 Week 17 NFL Pick

Buffalo Bills (7-8) at New York Jets (4-11)

The Jets got blown out by the Patriots in New England 41-3 last week and, if that wasn’t bad enough, they were actually blown out 34-13 the previous week at home for the Dolphins. Believe it or not though, teams actually tend to cover the spread after a blowout loss like that and especially after two blowout losses in a row. Teams are 52-28 ATS since 2002 off of a loss by 35 or more points and teams are also 44-30 ATS since 2002 off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more points. It’s counterintuitive, but teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot, which leads to them covering the spread more often than not.

I can’t guarantee that the Jets will be overlooked or embarrassed this week, but it certainly makes sense that they would be. They’re also definitely undervalued as 4.5 point home underdogs against a Bills team that isn’t in a great position right now either. In the past week, they’ve fired head coach Rex Ryan and benched quarterback Tyrod Taylor so that he doesn’t get hurt, as his salary is guaranteed for next season if he gets hurt. That means that backup EJ Manuel, who looked lost as a starter two years ago, will get the start and it also means that the Bills are strongly considering moving on from Taylor this off-season, despite two solid seasons at the starter.

The players like interim coach Anthony Lynn, but might not give their best effort given that it’s clear that the priority of the front office is not to win this game. Even if they do give their best effort, they have no business being favored by more than a field goal on the road against anyone with EJ Manuel as their quarterback and the likes of Cordy Glenn, Stephon Gilmore, and Kyle Williams all out with injuries. The Jets are very much undervalued after two bad performances and have a good chance to bounce back and surprise people a little bit this week. This is worth a bet if you’re getting more than a field goal.

Buffalo Bills 17 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2016 Week 16 NFL Pick

New York Jets (4-10) at New England Patriots (12-2)

The Patriots finish the season in Miami next week, while the Jets host the Bills. That puts the Patriots in a much better spot because the Miami isn’t a real distraction for them. The Buffalo game might not be a distraction for the Jets given that they’re facing the Patriots this week, but it’s tough for inferior teams to keep it close against superior teams with a big home game on deck, while superior teams tend to take care of business and cover the spread when they don’t have any upcoming distractions. While teams are 73-58 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 4.5 or more, as the Patriots will be next week in Miami, teams are 43-93 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4.5 or more, as the Jets will be next week against the Bills. That being said, the Patriots are favored by 17 here at home, so we’re getting terrible value with them. This is a no confidence pick, but New England is the pick in pick ‘em pools.

New England Patriots 31 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: New England -17

Confidence: None

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Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2016 Week 15 NFL Pick

Miami Dolphins (8-5) at New York Jets (4-9)

The Dolphins pulled off the home upset victory last week over the Cardinals, despite being without a trio of key defenders, linebackers Kiko Alonso and Jelani Jenkins and defensive end Mario Williams, all of whom return this week. It was a game they should have lost though, as the Cardinals lost 7 points on special teams, thanks to a missed field goal and two missed extra points, one of which was blocked and returned for 2 points. The Cardinals had the 21-15 edge in first downs and won the first down rate battle by +6.52%.

Teams also tend to struggle off of a home upset victory like that, going 61-80 ATS since 2012, as teams tend to be overrated and overconfident in that spot. However, we’re actually still getting good line value with the Dolphins because they lost quarterback Ryan Tannehill with injury, which dropped this line from 3.5 to 2.5, despite Miami’s upset victory. That might not seem like a big swing, but 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal so it’s a very significant point. Considering backup Matt Moore is one of the better backups in the league and the Dolphins are significantly healthier around the quarterback now than they have been for most of the season, I think the line is very fair.

With that in mind, I’m actually taking the Dolphins as the Jets have to turn around and go to New England next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Teams are just 41-66 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs and the Jets could easily overlook the Dolphins with arguably the biggest game of their season on deck. Because Moore hasn’t made a start since 2011, there’s not enough here for me to be confident enough in Miami to put money on them, but they should be the right side. Even a field goal road victory covers this spread.

Miami Dolphins 20 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: Miami -2.5

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

New York Jets (3-9) at San Francisco 49ers (1-11)

The Jets were embarrassed on national television in a 41-10 Monday Night Football home loss to the Indianapolis Colts last week. This might sound counterintuitive, but that puts them in a great spot this week, as teams are 92-54 ATS since 2002 off of an against the spread loss of 28 or more (the Jets lost by 31 as 2 point underdogs). It makes sense when you think about it, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. I don’t know if the Jets are truly embarrassed or not, but they could easily be overlooked and I think they’re definitely undervalued.

This line shifted from 1 in favor of the 49ers on the early line last week to 3 this week, thanks to the Jets’ horrible showing on national television. That’s way too big of a line movement, especially considering the 49ers lost big as road favorites in Chicago last week. This line suggests that these two teams are more or less even, but I think the Jets are still a level above the 49ers, even down to 3rd string quarterback Bryce Petty. The 49ers’ defense has been decimated by injuries and this week they are missing left tackle Joe Staley, easily their best player on either side of the ball. They’ve lost their lost 11 straight games by an average of 14.91 points per game.

The 49ers could also easily overlook the Jets, with a tough road game in Atlanta on deck. Teams are 160-260 ATS since 2002 before being double digit underdogs, including 37-62 ATS as favorites. In a lost season, the 49ers could easily overlook a bad Jets team with a tough opponent on deck. The Jets are less likely to overlook the 49ers because of how badly they got beaten last week and the Jets are also the better team. There’s not enough here for me to put any money on the Jets as 3 point underdogs, but I think the money line at +120 is a good value.

New York Jets 17 San Francisco 49ers 16 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3

Confidence: Low

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Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

Indianapolis Colts (5-6) at New York Jets (3-8)

The Colts get Andrew Luck back from injury this week, but still have major problems on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they struggle against the run and the pass and, on the offensive side of the ball, they’ve had major issues upfront on the offensive line and have struggled to run the football. They’re healthier now than they were earlier in the year, but still rank just 28th in first down rate differential. That’s actually one spot behind the Jets. The Colts might be a little better than that suggests given their injury situation has improved as the season has gone on, but these two teams are much more comparable than this line suggests.

This line has the Jets as 2 point home underdogs, so we’re getting a few points of line value with them. On top of that, the Jets are in good spot, as home underdogs tend to cover off of a loss as home underdogs, going 75-53 ATS since 2002 in that spot. The Colts are also just 20-22 outside of the division since 2013, including just 1-4 ATS as non-divisional road favorites. I would need at least 3 to put any money on the Jets, but I don’t think we’re going to get that. At 2, it’s a low confidence pick. The money line at +110 might be the best bet here.

New York Jets 23 Indianapolis Colts 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +2

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots at New York Jets: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick

New England Patriots (8-2) at New York Jets (3-7)

The Patriots are right in the middle of a very cushy stretch of their schedule, as they play the 49ers, Jets, and Rams in back-to-back-to-back weeks. Those are three of the worst teams in the league. As a result, they have no upcoming distractions and should be able to cruise through those 3 games. They got a 13-point win in San Francisco last week and could easily get another big win here in New York this week as 8 point favorites. Favorites of 6+ are 93-51 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6+ again, as superior teams tend to take care of business when they don’t have any upcoming distractions. The Patriots are 14 point favorites on the early line for next week’s home matchup with the Rams. However, it’s tough to be confident in them as favorites of this many points with Rob Gronkowski reportedly a gametime decision at best, after missing last week with a chest injury. The Patriots are the pick in pick ‘em pools, but I wouldn’t recommend betting on them.

New England Patriots 27 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: New England -8

Confidence: None

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Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

Los Angeles Rams (3-5) at New York Jets (3-6)

These are two of the worst teams in the league so I’m not going to spend much time on this pick. The Rams are a slightly better team, as they rank 30th in first down rate differential, as opposed to 31st for the Jets, but we’re not really getting line value with them as mere 1.5 point underdogs. The Jets are in a tough spot, looking forward to a bye as small favorites; Home favorites of 1 to 5.5 points are just 30-58 ATS before a regular season bye since 2002. It’s a no confidence pick, but I’m taking the Rams.

New York Jets 17 Los Angeles Rams 16

Pick against the spread: Los Angeles +1.5

Confidence: None

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