New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2020 Week 17 NFL Pick

New York Jets (2-13) at New England Patriots (6-9)

The Patriots have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the league this season. They’ve beaten quality teams like the Dolphins, Raiders, Cardinals, and Ravens, with the first two coming by double digits. They have a 45-0 win over the Chargers and have also kept it close with the Seahawks and Bills. At the same time, they lost their rematch to the Dolphins and badly lost their rematch to the Bills. They also have double digit losses to the Rams and 49ers and have lost to the Texans and Broncos, while almost losing to the Jets, before pulling out a mere field goal win. 

There also isn’t a lot of rhyme or reason to their inconsistency, as their loss to the Texans came in the middle of a 4-1 stretch, while their recent 3-game losing streak (Rams, Dolphins, Bills) has come after probably their most complete game of the season against the Chargers. Their schedule hasn’t been easy and they haven’t been horrible all things considered, ranking 22nd in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at -0.76%, but they’ve been very tough to predict week-to-week.

In terms of variance, the Patriots rank 5th in the NFL and their inconsistency is even worse than that suggests, as most teams that rank high in variance have had injury problems throughout the season that have caused them to not have the same personnel available to them every week, which hasn’t really been the case for the Patriots. The best explanation I have for their inconsistency is that they’re a bottom-third team talent wise that is more likely to exceed their talent level and play surprisingly well than your average bottom-third team because of their coaching edge.

Given that, it’s hard to ever bet them confidently, but it seems like the Patriots’ stock is so low now after their recent 3-game losing streak that they are a reasonably safe bet, now favored by just 3 points over the Jets, after being favored by 9 points on the early line last week. Everyone saw them get blown out by the Bills on Monday Night Football, but the Bills are arguably the best team in the league and, even if the Patriots don’t play their best game, they should be able to win this game by at least a field goal against one of the worst teams in the league.

Massive line movements like that almost always tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play. The Patriots’ injuries are starting to pile up, with key offensive linemen David Andrews and Shaq Mason and talented edge defender Josh Uche now sidelined after playing last week, joining top running back Damien Harris and top cornerback Stephon Gilmore as key players to go down in recent weeks, so some line movement was justified, but the Patriots still rank a somewhat respectable 24th in my roster rankings, while the Jets rank 31st.

The Jets have won back-to-back games after losing their first 13 games of the season by a ridiculous 16.15 points per game, but I don’t think they’re suddenly a drastically improved team, as they seemed to catch the Rams off guard more than anything and last week they faced a Browns team that was missing several key players on offense, including their top-4 wide receivers. Teams also tend to be overrated after wins as big home underdogs like the Jets got last week, covering at a 43.1% rate after a win as home underdogs of 3.5 or more. 

Like the Patriots’ loss to the Bills, the Jets win last week shouldn’t have led to a line movement of more than a point or so. I’m not saying this line should still be at 9, after the results of last week and the Patriots’ injuries, but I still have it calculated at New England -5, so we’re getting decent line value with the Patriots. The Jets have also seen injuries start to pile up in recent weeks, something that has been overlooked because of their mini winning streak, most notably the absence of their top defensive player Quinnen Willliams, who went down for the season after the win against the Rams week 15.

I hate betting on a team that has been as tough to predict as the Patriots, but even in one of their worst games of the season, they were able to beat the Jets in New York by a field goal, so they should be able to win ugly again at home if they have to and the Patriots’ obvious coaching edge gives them a better chance of winning this game easily than most teams with an underwhelming roster. The most likely outcomes of this game, in order, are a close Patriots win, a not so close Patriots win, and then a close Jets win, so I like my chances at New England -3.

New England Patriots 23 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: New England -3

Confidence: Medium

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets: 2020 Week 16 NFL Pick

Cleveland Browns (10-4) at New York Jets (1-13)

The Jets won their first game of the season last week, shocking the Rams as 17-point underdogs, but I wouldn’t expect anything close to a repeat of that this week. Even with that win, the Jets still rank dead last in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at -5.96% (no other team is lower than -5.71%) and in point differential at -207 (no other team is lower than -148), with their average defeat coming by a whopping 16.2 points per game. They are also among the league’s worst in my roster rankings, especially with arguably their best player this season, defensive lineman Quinnen Williams, now out for the season.

On top of that, teams typically struggle to cover after big upset wins, covering at a 40.9% rate after a win as underdogs of 10 points or more, including 4-13 ATS over the past 30 seasons after a win as underdogs of 14 points or more. The Jets’ win last week was the equivalent of their Super Bowl, so there will almost definitely be some hangover effect this week, and the line shifted from Cleveland -11 to Cleveland -9.5 in the wake of the Jets’ upset, which gives us some line value with the Browns. 

My calculated line is Cleveland -12, as, not only are the Jets still arguably the worst team in the league, but the Browns have emerged as a contender in recent weeks. The Browns have played a relatively easy schedule and have won just four of their ten games by multiple scores, so they rank just 23rd in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at -1.36%, but their issues have been primarily concentrated on the defensive side of the ball, where they rank 29th in first down rate allowed over expected at +2.62%, which is definitely the better side of the ball to have issues on, because defensive performance tends to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On offense, which is the much more consistent side of the ball, the Browns rank 10th in first down rate over expected at +1.26%. 

The Browns aren’t a great defense, but they’re more talented than they’ve played thus far and they have their top-2 defensive players Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward in the lineup together again after both missed time, so I would be surprised if they weren’t better defensively going forward, which will make it much easier for them to win by big amounts. I would expect this to be one of those wins. This isn’t a big play on the Browns because they’re not in a great spot either, ahead of a much tougher game against the Steelers (favorites cover at just a 42.8% rate when their opponents have a winning percentage that is worse than their next opponent’s winning percentage by over 50%), but the Browns are bettable at 9.5.

Update: The Browns will be without their top-4 wide receivers due to being COVID contacts of linebacker BJ Goodson, who will also be out for this game. This is frustrating for my -9.5 bet, but this line has re-posted at 6.5 and I’m going to double down on the Browns at that number. The Browns are a run heavy team, so their wide receiver absences won’t be as big of a deal as they would be for most teams. My calculated line is actually still Cleveland -10. Hopefully they can win by double digits and cover both bets, but I like doubling down at 6.5 to offset losses from a 7-9 point win. And if you were lucky enough not to lock this in earlier, Cleveland -6.5 would be one of my top plays of the week.

Cleveland Browns 27 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -6.5

Confidence: High

New York Jets at Los Angeles Rams: 2020 Week 15 NFL Pick

New York Jets (0-13) at Los Angeles Rams (9-4)

As crazy as it sounds, the Jets might be a decent bet this week. The Jets obviously haven’t won a game, but winless teams are actually a good bet late in the season because the odds makers know they can boost the spread and people will still bet against them. Teams with records of 0-8 or worse cover at a 57.9% rate all-time, even if that is counterintuitive. That didn’t help the Jets last week in their blowout loss in Seattle, but I expect a better effort this week, which is typically the case after a blowout. Teams cover at 57.5% rate all-time after losing by 35 points or more. Combining the two aforementioned trends, teams are 14-5-2 ATS over the past 30 years with a record of 0-8, coming off of a loss by at least 14 points or more. 

The Rams obviously have the talent edge, but they probably won’t bring their best effort for the Jets, especially with a much tougher game on deck against the Seahawks. Favorites cover at just a 42.9% rate when their next opponent has a winning percentage 50%+ higher than their current opponent. My calculated line is Rams -15, so we’re not getting much line value with the Jets, which makes it risky to bet on them, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes and if you want to take a risk, I would expect this game to be closer than most think. 

Los Angeles Rams 24 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +17

Confidence: Low

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks: 2020 Week 14 NFL Pick

New York Jets (0-12) at Seattle Seahawks (8-4)

The Seahawks lost last week in shocking fashion, sitting at 8-3, at home facing a sub-.500 team who was starting a backup quarterback. Even more shocking is that, while the Seahawks’ issues this season have primarily been on the defensive side of the ball, the unit that struggled the most in Seattle’s 17-12 loss was their offense. The good news is I like the Seahawks’ chances of bouncing back, for a few reasons. 

For one, teams typically bounce back off of big upset losses like that, covering at a 57.1% rate all-time after a straight up loss as favorites of 10 or more, as big upset losses tend to be flukes more than anything. The Jaguars’ upset of the Colts and the Raiders’ upset of the Chiefs stand out as two fluky results from this season. The Seahawks’ loss to the Giants will likely be remembered the same way as those losses and both of those teams covered fairly easily the following week. 

The Seahawks lso bounced back from losses well in general in the Russell Wilson era, losing back-to-back games just 9 times in about 9 seasons. The Seahawks are favored by 13.5 points in this matchup with the Jets, so they’ll need to win by a lot to cover, but the Seahawks are also 28-12 ATS off of a loss in the Russell Wilson era, including 8-3 ATS as favorites of more than a touchdown, so a huge victory this week to wash away the taste of last week’s disappointing loss is definitely a possibility.

Even with last week’s disappointing offensive performance, the Seahawks still rank 5th in first down rate over expected at +2.11% and, while their defense ranks an underwhelming 20th in first down rate allowed over expected at +1.11%, defensive performance tends to be much more inconsistent on a week-to-week basis than offensive performance and their defense has been significantly better in recent weeks since getting top safety Jamal Adams and top cornerback Shaq Griffin back from injuries and since adding edge defender Carlos Dunlap in a trade with the Bengals. 

The Seahawks’ offense has also gotten healthier. They’ve gotten their top-2 running backs Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde back from significant absences in recent weeks and this week they’ll have their full healthy offensive line together for the first time since 4, with right tackle Brandon Shell set to return this week. The Seahawks aren’t at 100%, but no one is at this point in the season and they’re legitimately healthier right now than they’ve been since the start of the season. In their current state, I have the Seahawks ranked 2nd in my roster rankings, so they should be a force going forward, last week’s fluky result aside.

The Jets, meanwhile, haven’t won a game all season and most of their losses haven’t been close, as 7 of their 12 losses were by 14 or more points, which would cover this spread, and their average margin of defeat is 14.4 points per game, so the Seahawks wouldn’t even need to give the Jets their average margin of defeat to cover this spread. This line was -15 last week on the early line, but it shifted to 13.5 in the wake of Seattle’s fluky loss, which gives us some extra line value. The Jets’ had one of their better performances of the year last week in a near win over the Raiders, but their good health in the receiving corps and on the offensive line lasted just one week and, as a result, my roster rankings suggest there is about a 14.5 point difference between these two teams.

The Jets are also in a tough spot with back-to-back hard road games, with a trip to Los Angeles to face the Rams on deck. It’s very tough for inferior teams to keep up with superior teams when they have another superior team on deck, as teams are 55-91 ATS since 1989 as double digit underdogs before being double digit underdogs again the following week. Everything suggests this should be a blowout, so, even though I don’t love betting on big favorites, this seems like a relatively safe bet.

Seattle Seahawks 30 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: Seattle -13.5

Confidence: Medium

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets: 2020 Week 13 NFL Pick

Las Vegas Raiders (6-5) at New York Jets (0-11)

This is a tough one. On one hand, the Raiders should be in a good spot. They were blown out in Atlanta last week, but a lot of that can probably be blamed on hangover effort from their close loss to the Chiefs and teams typically bounce back after blowout losses, going 63-38 ATS since 2002 after a loss by 35 or more points, as teams tend to be overlooked, underrated, and embarrassed after getting blown out. The Jets, meanwhile, have another tough game on deck in Seattle and underdogs of 7+ are 38-62 ATS since 2016 before being underdogs of 7+ again, with the Jets definitely will be next week. 

On the other hand, I think this line is a little high at 8. The Jets are healthy at quarterback, in the receiving corps, and on the offensive line for the first time really all season and now actually rank ahead of the banged up Bengals and Jaguars in my roster rankings, despite not winning a game all season. Meanwhile, the Raiders haven’t been great overall this season, with a negative point differential at -27 and a negative first down rate differential at -1.32% (23rd in the NFL) and now are without their top offensive player running back Josh Jacobs. 

The Jets are obviously winless, but betting on winless teams this late in the season actually tends to be a smart idea. Books know they can boost the line on winless teams, so teams that are 0-8 or worse cover at a 58.1% rate all-time, even if that may be counterintuitive. That appears to be the case in this one, as I have this line calculated at New York -6.5. This line crosses the touchdown to 8, which is significant because about 10% of games are decided by exactly a touchdown, so we’re getting decent line value with the Jets. It’s hard to take them with any confidence though, given their coaching situation and that the Raiders are in a better situational spot. I’m taking the Jets against the spread, but this is one of my lowest confidence picks this week.

Las Vegas Raiders 27 New York Jets 20

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +8

Confidence: None

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2020 Week 12 NFL Pick

Miami Dolphins (6-4) at New York Jets (0-10)

The Jets haven’t won a game yet, but they’ve played better in recent weeks. In their last four games, their only loss by more than one score came against the Chiefs and they were able to keep it within a touchdown against capable opponents in the Bills, Patriots, and Chargers. That doesn’t sound like much of an accomplishment, but considering they lost each of their first 6 games of the season by at least 9 points and an average of 18.33 points, it represents progress. The Jets still rank dead last in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at -7.00%, but a lot of that is because of how much they struggled earlier in the season and they’ve actually moved out of the basement to 30th in my roster rankings. 

While the Jaguars and Bengals both being extremely banged up is a big part of the reason why the Jets moved ahead of them in my roster rankings, the Jets are also improved, primarily due to their offense being healthier, especially in the receiving corps, where the Jets have gotten each of their top-3 wide receivers back from injury in Jamison Crowder (4 games missed), Denzel Mims (6 games), and Breshad Perriman (4 games) in recent weeks. That’s been the biggest reason for their improvement on the field and, this week, they’ll get starting quarterback Sam Darnold back as well. While Darnols has hardly been impressive in his career, he’s still the Jets’ best quarterback and he’ll have his full complement of receivers available to him this week for the first time all season, so this offense has the upside to be much improved.

When these two teams back in week 6, the Dolphins utterly dominated the Jets in a 24-0 victory in which they won the first down rate battle by 13.30%, but the Jets didn’t have Darnold, left tackle Mekhi Becton, or wide receiver Denzel Mims in that game, which were big absences. On top of that, the Dolphins were still starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick back then and their offensive efficiency numbers have been better with him under center this season than with raw rookie Tua Tugavailoa, who will also be playing through a hand injury that knocked him out of the Dolphins’ loss in Denver last week.

That loss wasn’t really a fluke either, as the Dolphins have not been as good as their 6-4 record, ranking 22nd in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at -0.83%. The Dolphins have faced an easy schedule and they have benefitted from things like a +6 turnover margin, a +3 return touchdown margin, and a 63.64% opponent’s field goal percentage (best in the NFL), three things that tend to be totally unpredictable on a week-to-week basis. With the Jets being better in recent weeks, my calculated line for this game is just Miami -4, so we’re getting good line value with the Jets at +6.5. There isn’t enough here for me to actually want to bet money on the Jets this week, something I haven’t done all year, but if this line moves up to 7, I would strongly consider it, as the Jets seem to finally be bettable.

Update:  Tua Tagovailoa was surprisingly ruled out for the Dolphins today, so Ryan Fitzpatrick will now get the start instead. I think that improves the Dolphins’ chances in this game and the odds makers and sharps seem to agree, pushing this line up to a full touchdown. With Fitzpatrick, my calculated line is Miami -5, so we’re still getting line value with the Jets, but I have no interest in betting them. 

Update: The Jets are surprisingly going to be without left guard Alex Lewis, even though he practiced throughout the week. The Jets will already be down their right tackle, which wasn’t a huge deal because their receiving corps is significantly better than it was earlier this season, but missing two offensive linemen is going to be a problem against a good Dolphins defensive front. I’m dropping all confidence on this game, but remaining on the Jets slightly.

Miami Dolphins 23 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +7

Confidence: None

New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers: 2020 Week 11 NFL Pick

New York Jets (0-9) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-7)

In 2019, the Chargers were a solid team, but went just 5-11 because of a ridiculous 2-9 record in one score games. That type of thing tends to be very inconsistent on a year-to-year basis, but somehow the Chargers have been even worse in close games this season, going 1-7 in one score games. Rookie starting quarterback Justin Herbert has had even worse luck, as the Chargers one one-score victory came in week 1 in Cincinnati with veteran Tyrod Taylor under center. 

All seven of Herbert’s losses were one score games, even though he’s played a pretty tough schedule in those seven losses, with five of the losses coming against teams that are currently 6-3 or better, including near victories over the Saints, Buccaneers, and Chiefs. Meanwhile, Herbert’s only victory came by 10 over the Jaguars in a game in which the Jaguars scored on special teams and the Chargers won the first down rate battle by 12.24%. 

The Jaguars are one of the worst teams in the league, but the Jets are the one team that is clearly worse than them. Not only do they rank dead last in my roster rankings and in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at -7.87% (the Jaguars are 31st at -5.43%), but they’ve lost every game they’ve played and most of them haven’t been particularly close, with 8 losses by 8 points or more and an average margin of defeat of 16.3 points per game. The Chargers are 9.5 point favorites in this game, but wouldn’t even have to come that close to the Jets’ average margin of defeat to cover this spread. 

The Chargers have played much better than their record and are arguably the healthiest they’ve been all season right now, with key players like defensive ends Joey Bosa (2 games missed) and Melvin Ingram (3 games), defensive tackle Justin Jones (3 games missed), right tackle Bryan Bulaga (4 games missed), wide receiver Mike Williams (1 game missed), and right guard Trai Turner (7 games missed) all being available for this game, so you can definitely make the case that they’re at least an average team. I don’t know if I like the Chargers quite enough for them to be worth betting, but they should be the right side and I ultimately may end up wagering on them.

Los Angeles Chargers 24 New York Jets 12

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -9.5

Confidence: Low

New England Patriots at New York Jets: 2020 Week 9 NFL Pick

New England Patriots (2-5) at New York Jets (0-8)

With the Patriots falling to 2-5 in their first season without Tom Brady, there has been a lot of talk that the Patriots made a mistake not trying harder to bring Brady back. However, I don’t know how this would have gone much differently even with Brady, minus Cam Newton’s brief bout with COVID that caused him to miss the Kansas City game and may have disrupted his next couple weeks. We saw Brady with this receiving corps last season and they were not a good offense, ranking 21st in first down rate, despite a much easier schedule than this season, when they rank 13th in schedule adjusted first down rate. It’s not like they were an offensive juggernaut and lost Brady and now they’ve fallen off a cliff. Brady looks good in Tampa Bay, but he has one of the best supporting casts in the league.

By far the biggest reason for their struggles winning games this season has been their dropoff on defense, which has fallen from being by far the top defense in the league by first down rate allowed to ranking just 16th in schedule adjusted first down rate allowed. Defensive performance tends to be much more inconsistent year-to-year and week-to-week than offensive performance, but for the Patriots, the reason for their dropoff is clear. Of their top-8 players in terms of snaps played from last year’s defense, just two (Devin McCourty and JC Jackson) were active for last week’s loss in Buffalo.

The Patriots have still been better than their record though, as they rank 18th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at 0.18% and have been competitive in all but one of their losses. Both of their wins have come by double digits against competent opponents, but they are 0-3 in games decided by one score or less, which doesn’t even include a Kansas City game that was close throughout and that the Patriots easily could have won if they didn’t have to start a backup quarterback.

This week, the Patriots could get one of their top players back, with top cornerback Stephon Gilmore returning to practice after missing his first game of the season last week, and the Patriots also get a much easier matchup, going to New York to face a Jets team that has been the worst team in the league this season and that won’t have the benefit of any fans in the stands. The Jets also won’t have quarterback Sam Darnold due to a re-aggravation of his shoulder injury and, while he doesn’t been great this season any by stretch, he’s still been measurably better than washed up backup Joe Flacco, with whom this offense has been utterly inept this season, including one of the worst offensive performances I’ve seen in a while against the Dolphins in his most recent start.

The Jets are getting healthier in other areas, including wide receiver, but they still rank dead last in my roster rankings and they also rank last by a significant margin in schedule adjusted first down rate differential this season, at -8.78%. Not only have they not won a game, but they haven’t even come particularly close, with their closest loss coming by 8 points and their average loss by 18 points. This line jumped from 7 and 7.5 to 9.5 when the Darnold news was announced, but I have this line calculated at New England -12, as the Patriots are at least a middling team that should be able to handle the Jets like everyone else has. 

This isn’t a good spot for the Patriots, with a home game against the Ravens on deck, as road favorites cover at a 38.7% rate over the past 30 seasons before being home underdogs, but with the Patriots on a 4-game losing streak and needing a win just to keep their season alive, I would expect them to be focused for this one. I would probably need Stephon Gilmore to be active for the Patriots to be worth betting, but they are the pick for pick ‘em purposes regardless.

New England Patriots 21 New York Jets 9

Pick against the spread: New England -9.5

Confidence: Low

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs: 2020 Week 8 NFL Pick

New York Jets (0-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-1)

This is the biggest line of the year so far, favoring the Chiefs at home by 19.5 points. Normally I don’t like to bet on massive favorites like this and for good reason, as favorites are 17.5+ are 7-15 ATS over the past 30 seasons (though 3-1 ATS over the past 8 seasons), but this line arguably isn’t big enough and it’s smaller than it was on the early line last week, when the Chiefs were favored by 21. I’m guessing the Jets’ close game against the Bills last weekend is the reason for the movement, but that 8-point loss to an overrated Bills team is the Jets’ closest game of the year and they have been outscored by an average of 16.9 points per game in their 7 losses. It’s not hard to imagine the Jets losing by 20 or more against arguably the top team in the league.

The Chiefs are also in a great spot, as they have another easy home game on deck, while the Jets have a divisional clash with the Patriots and could easily not be as focused as they need to be this week to keep this one close. Favorites of 6+ are 82-42 ATS since 2008 before being favorites of 6+ again the following week when their opponents will next be underdogs of 6+ again the following week and all three of those conditions are likely to be true in this one. I wouldn’t make this a huge bet, but I see no reason other than fluky plays or a backdoor cover that this game is within three touchdowns.

Kansas City Chiefs 30 New York Jets 6

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -19.5

Confidence: Medium

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: 2020 Week 7 NFL Pick

Buffalo Bills (4-2) at New York Jets (0-6)

The Jets are not just the last remaining winless team and the worst team in the league; they’re the worst team in the league by a wide margin and one of the worst teams of all time statistically. None of their games have been decided by one score or less. They haven’t been remotely competitive in any of their games, with their best single week first down rate differential being their -6.56% mark in week 2 in a 31-13 loss to the 49ers. They’ve lost by an average of 18.3 points per game and their -110 point differential is the 9th worst through 6 games since the merger. In terms of first down rate differential, the Jets are at -11.68% when adjusted for schedule and no other team is worse than -6.79%.

The Jets can look to last year’s Dolphins, who were 0-6 with a -148 point differential and a -13.68% first down rate differential through 6 games, before eventually going 5-5 over their final 10 games, but the Dolphins had a capable veteran quarterback to turn to in Ryan Fitzpatrick and were well coached by first year head coach Brian Flores, two things the Jets don’t have going for them. 

The Jets are getting healthier on offense, which has been the worse side of the ball, as not only will they have Sam Darnold back from a two-game absence, but he could have his top-3 wide receivers all healthy for the first time all year, with Jamison Crowder returning three weeks ago, Breshad Perriman returning last week, and rookie Denzel Mims likely to make his season debut this season. However, even with better health, the Jets still stand out as dead last in my roster rankings.

This week, the Jets host the Bills and are 10-point home underdogs. Earlier this week, I was thinking of making a small bet on the Bills just as a fade of the Jets, who have yet to cover this season, but the injury developments have changed my mind, as not only are the Jets getting healthier, but the Bills, who haven’t played as well over the past two weeks, are going in the other direction injury wise. They may get linebacker Matt Milano back from injury, but wide receiver John Brown, tight end Dawson Knox, guard Cody Ford, cornerbacks Josh Norman and Levi Wallace, and possibly top cornerback Tre’Davious White are all expected to be out this week. 

This line has shifted from -12.5 earlier this week down to -10 because of the injury news, but I still don’t like betting on a huge road favorite when they’re banged up and could potentially be sleep walking through the game, with a much bigger game against the Patriots on deck. The Bills are still the pick for pick ‘em purposes now, but if both Milano and White are ruled out, I may flip this pick, as I don’t have a strong lean either way.

Final Update: The injury report is better than I was expecting, as the Bills will have both Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano, while the Jets will be missing their top receiver Jamison Crowder in a surprise inactive (as well as talented guard Alex Lewis, but that was known earlier this week). I still wouldn’t bet on the Bills, but I’m pumping this up to low confidence.

Buffalo Bills 24 New York Jets 10

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -10

Confidence: Low