Minnesota Vikings (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)
This is a tough one. The Steelers had an underwhelming start to the season, winning by just 3 in Cleveland in a game in which they returned a punt for a touchdown. They actually lost the first down rate battle, as the Browns had 20 first downs to Pittsburgh’s 16 and had a +2.15% first down rate differential. However, they are still one of the most talented teams in the league and are prone to disappointing performances like that on the road. Back at home, they have a great chance to rebound and they’re in a great spot with only a trip to Chicago on deck.
The Steelers are projected 6 point road favorites in that one on the early line and teams tend to take care of business before games like that because they don’t have any upcoming distractions. Teams are 92-70 ATS since 2012 before being 4+ point road favorites. The Steelers do have to face a tough Minnesota team this week though, a team that is arguably one of the top-10 in the entire league now that they’ve upgraded their offensive line and running game. As 6 point favorites, it’s hard to be confident in the Steelers covering, but they are my pick in pick ‘em leagues.
Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Minnesota Vikings 20
Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -6