Chicago Bears (0-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)
Going into the season, the Bears were on my underrated list. They went 3-13 last season, but the framework of the team was much better than their record suggested, as they finished 13th in first down rate. Their record was largely the result of a 1-6 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a league worst -20 turnover margin, two things that tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis. The Bears were able to do that despite having the most adjusted games lost to injury of any team in the league, something that’s also pretty inconsistent on a year-to-year basis.
The Bears opened their season by nearly knocking off the defending NFC Champion Falcons, coming up short on 4 straight goal line plays to end the game. However, they continue to have injury issues. They get top cornerback Prince Amukamara back from a one game absence, which should help this defense, but they lost top receiver Kevin White and talented middle linebacker Jerrell Freeman for the season last week. Meanwhile, talented guard Kyle Long is likely to sit out again as he’s still not all the way back from off-season ankle surgery, while talented edge defender Pernell McPhee played just 2 snaps in the opener as he deals with knee problems. They still have a solid running game and defense, but their outlook does not look as good as it did a week ago.
The Bears are also in a tough spot here as they have to turn around and host the Steelers, who are one of the best teams in the league. The Bears are projected to be 6 point home underdogs on the early line and teams are 45-98 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4.5+ or more, as big upcoming home games like that tend to be a distraction for teams. On top of that, underdogs of 6+ like the Bears are 50-83 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6+ again. The Buccaneers are coming off of a week 1 Hurricane Irma bye week and are in a much better spot with Minnesota on deck. The Bears still have a good chance to make this another close game, but I can’t take them with any sort of confidence. I’ve flipped flopped on this one all week, so this is probably my lowest confidence pick of the week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Chicago Bears 21
Pick against the spread: Chicago +6.5