Dallas Cowboys (5-3) at Atlanta Falcons (4-4)

Early in the week, I locked in the Cowboys at +3.5 and I was considering them as a Pick of the Week. They’ve played much better since getting top linebacker Sean Lee back from injury and they always play well on the road, going 35-25 ATS since 2010 away from Cowboy Stadium, as a result of the Cowboys’ nationwide fanbase. I had these two teams about comparable in my roster rankings, so getting more than a field goal with a good road team was very appealing to me and I didn’t think 3.5 would stay around long.

I was correct about that, as the line had shifted to 3 by mid-week, but then Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension went back on and left tackle Tyron Smith missed practice all week, so I don’t like the Cowboys nearly as much as I did earlier in the week. Despite that, this line has stayed at 3 so I would not recommend a bet on the current line. Because I did lock in Dallas +3.5 early in the week, this will count as a medium confidence pick. Atlanta has not been playing that well lately, so the Cowboys still have a decent chance to pull out the victory or at least keep it within a field goal. At +3, this is a no confidence pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Update: This line has moved back to 3.5 with Tyron Smith being ruled out. This could easily be a field goal game and the Cowboys are still a good road team, so grabbing +3.5 makes some sense if you can get it.

Atlanta Falcons 30 Dallas Cowboys 27

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3.5

Confidence: Medium