Cowboys

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys: 2023 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Picks, 2023 Week 13 NFL Picks, Cowboys, NFL Picks, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3)

Normally, betting a big non-divisional home favorite on Thursday Night Football is a good idea, as it’s very tough for an inferior team to travel on a short week and compete with a superior team, unless it’s a divisional matchup, leading to non-divisional home favorites going 47-32 ATS on Thursday Night Football as long as teams are both on short rest, including 17-7 ATS as non-divisional home favorites of more than a touchdown. However, that doesn’t apply this week because both of these teams played on Thanksgiving last week and, as a result, are both on normal rest.

With that in mind, this game is difficult to handicap. The Cowboys lead the league in point differential at +162 and rank 4th in efficiency, with a first down rate differential of +5.72% and a yards per play differential of +1.12, but they’ve also faced the easiest schedule in the league in terms of DVOA. The Cowboys have especially played well at home, winning all five of their home games by 20 points or more, but the combined record of their home opponents is 19-38 with no team having better than a 5-6 record. Even that 5-6 opponent was a Rams team that lost starting quarterback Matt Stafford to injury mid-game. All of their other home opponents are 4-8 or worse.

The Seahawks aren’t a great team, but they’re at least average, with a 6-5 record, a -20 point differential, a +0.16 yards per play differential, and a -0.39% first down rate differential, which means they’re by far the toughest healthy team the Cowboys have faced at home this season. The Cowboys won’t need to win by 20+ again at home to cover this 9-point spread and a 10+ point Dallas victory is certainly a possibility, as blowout victories, even of poor opponents, tend to be more predictive than close victories, but it’s hard be confident in them since we haven’t seen them play a team of Seattle’s caliber at home. The closest thing we’ve seen to Dallas playing a team of Seattle’s caliber anywhere was a 3-point win in Los Angeles against the Chargers, an uninspiring result, given that the Chargers lack homefield advantage. 

The Cowboys did also blow out the 4-8 Giants and 1-10 Panthers on the road by a total of 63 points, which is still impressive even against weak competition, and they came close to knocking off the Eagles in Philadelphia. However, they also got blown out in San Francisco and lost a game that wasn’t particularly close to a weak Cardinals team, though the Cowboys are a lot healthier now than they were earlier in the season when that loss occurred, entering this game with a 90.1 sic score that is one of the highest in the league at this point in the season, as opposed to 86.6 in that Arizona game. My calculated line based on my roster rankings adjusted for injuries and statistics adjusted for strength of schedule has the Cowboys favored by 11, which suggests they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes at -9, but there isn’t enough here to be confident in betting on the Cowboys at this number.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Seattle Seahawks 16

Pick against the spread: Dallas -9

Confidence: Low

Dallas Cowboys 2023 NFL Season Preview

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Quarterback

In 2022, the Cowboys were a good team, but not a great team, finishing the regular season 6th in DVOA, making the post-season as a wild card at 12-5, and ultimately falling short in a divisional round loss to the 49ers. It was a similar season for the Cowboys, who have won double digit games and have made the post-season in five of the past nine seasons, but none of those appearances have led to deep playoff runs, with two ending with first round losses and three ending with second round losses. 

That’s actually a long-term trend for the Cowboys, dating back to their last NFC Championship appearance in 1995, a period of time in which they have qualified for the post-season 12 times in 27 seasons, but have gone just 5-12 in the post-season and have failed to win multiple games in the same post-season appearance. The Cowboys didn’t have a ton of room for flexibility this off-season and they’re an above average team, even if they haven’t been true contenders, so they decided to basically run it back for the second straight season, with minimal changes, beyond a few key changes that I’ll get into later.

Much like this team has been good, but not great in recent years, the same can be said of quarterback Dak Prescott. Since becoming the starter as a 4th round rookie in 2016, Prescott has started 97 games, completing 66.6% of his passes for an average of 7.60 YPA, 166 touchdowns, and 65 interceptions, good for a 97.8 QB rating, while finishing above 70 on PFF in all seven seasons, including four seasons over 80.

He’s certainly not a bad quarterback, but the problem is that he is the 9th highest paid quarterback in the league in terms of average annual salary on a 4-year, 160 million dollar deal and the history of paying non-elite quarterbacks top quarterback money is not promising. Since the start of the salary cap era in 1994, just 5 of 29 Super Bowls have been won by a quarterback with a cap hit that was more than 11% of the salary cap and all of those quarterbacks are Hall of Fame caliber players. It’s close to impossible to win it all with a highly paid starting quarterback unless he is an elite player under center, as it becomes very tough to surround a non-elite quarterback with enough talent to win with if that quarterback is taking a significant percentage of the cap.

Prescott is going into his age 30 season in 2023 and I would expect more of the same. Injuries are becoming a bit of a concern for him, as he’s missed time in each of the past three seasons, 17 games total, after not missing any in his first four seasons in the league. Fortunately, the Cowboys have a decent backup Cooper Rush, who has a career 84.9 QB rating, including a 80.0 QB rating in 5 starts last season in Prescott’s absence last season, after Prescott suffered an injury in week one. 

The Cowboys went 4-1 in Rush’s starts, but that had more to do with their defense, as they were a much more efficient offense with Prescott in the lineup, despite the win/loss records. Rush is not a bad backup, but the Cowboys will obviously be hoping that Prescott can stay healthy all year this time around. This is a solid quarterback room, but Prescott might not be quite good enough for this team to be serious contenders at the highest level with him making the salary he currently makes.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The biggest addition the Cowboys made on offense this off-season was wide receiver Brandin Cooks, who they are paying 12 million to come over from the Texans for a pair of late round draft picks. Cooks is going into his age 30 season and coming off of a 57/699/3 slash line, a down year for a receiver who has topped 1000 yards six times in nine seasons in the league, but Cooks’ low production last season was in part due to poor quarterback play with the Texans and also in part due to missing four games, as his 1.64 yards per route run average actually wasn’t far behind his career average of 1.81, despite the situation under center in Houston. 

Cooks isn’t totally over the hill and it’s entirely possible he bounces back statistically in 2023, if he stays healthier, in a much better offense. Even if he doesn’t bounce back to his prime form, Cooks should still be an asset for a team that lacked a consistent #2 wide receiver last year, behind #1 wide receiver Ceedee Lamb. Lamb finished last season with a 107/1359/9 slash line and a 2.38 yards per route run average, but their next best wide receiver was Noah Brown, who had just a 43/555/3 slash line and a 1.23 yards per route run average. 

For Lamb, last season was the best of his career, with a 86.3 PFF grade that ranked 7th in the league among wide receivers, but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as the 2020 overall pick has gotten better in every season in the league, going from a 74/935/5 slash line, 1.81 yards per route run average, and a 71.3 PFF grade as a rookie to a 79/1102/6 slash line, 2.06 yards per route run average, and a 84.6 PFF grade in his second season in 2021, to last year’s career best year, when he finished 6th in the league in receiving yards. Still only in his age 24 season, Lamb should remain one of the best wide receivers in the league for years to come in 2023 and beyond.

The Cowboys should also get more out of Michael Gallup (737 snaps), who struggled mightily in his first season back from a torn ACL in 2022, averaging just 1.00 yards per route run with a 39/424/4 slash line, but who has had much better years in the past and, only in his age 27 season, he has obvious bounce back potential, another year removed from the injury. Prior to last season, Gallup had averaged a 1.63 yards per route run and an average slash line of 70/1044/6 per 17 games in the previous three seasons combined, with his 2021 season ending after 9 games due to injury. Durability remains a concern for him and he may never go all the way back to his peak form, but he has a good amount of bounce back potential and should be useful for the Cowboys in 3-wide receiver sets with Lamb and Cooks.


With Noah Brown (823 snaps) gone, the Cowboys top reserve this season is likely to be 2022 3rd round pick Jalen Tolbert, although that’s mostly by default, with the rest of the position group consisting of recent late round picks and undrafted free agents, none of whom have surpassed more than a few catches in their career. Tolbert came into the league with a lot of potential, as evidenced by his draft status, and he still does have upside, but he also showed very little as a rookie, playing just 89 snaps, despite the Cowboys’ need for playmakers at the position, and averaging just 0.30 yards per route run. The Cowboys won’t need him much in 2023 unless there are injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but that’s obviously a possibility and Tolbert could easily end up struggling if forced into a significant role as an injury replacement.

The Cowboys should have a talented top wide receiver trio this season, but they did lose tight end Dalton Schultz in free agency this off-season. Schultz actually finished second on this team with a 57/577/5 slash line on 89 targets, while averaging a 1.38 yards per route run average, giving the Cowboys a reliable tight end target to help make up for their lack of wide receiver depth. Schultz wasn’t replaced by a comparable veteran tight end this off-season, so the Cowboys are likely to have less focus on the tight end position this season, in favor of giving more targets to their talented wide receiver trio.

Jake Ferguson, a 2022 4th round pick who played 420 snaps and averaged 1.66 yards per route run as the #2 tight end as a rookie, is in line to start as Schultz’s replacement, and the Cowboys also added another young tight end, Michigan’s Luke Schoonmaker, in the 2nd round of this year’s draft and he figures to also have at least somewhat of a role at the tight end position. Schoonmaker is raw though, while Ferguson is a projection to a larger role. The top-3 targets in this passing game are likely to be the wide receivers, given that they have a talented top trio at that position, but their young tight ends do also have some upside, in a receiving corps that seems strong overall.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

At running back, the big change is the Cowboys releasing long-time feature back Ezekiel Elliott, a move the Cowboys are hoping will be addition by subtraction, with promising young Tony Pollard poised to take over the feature back role, after being by far the more efficient back over Elliott in a limited role in recent years. In his career, the 2019 4th round pick Pollard has averaged 5.13 yards per carry on 510 carries in 4 seasons in the league, with 1.45 yards per route run as a pass catcher, and back-to-back seasons over 85 overall on PFF, while Elliott had averaged just 4.01 yards per carry on 712 carries and 0.69 yards per route run over the past three seasons combined, while not exceeding even 75 overall on PFF since 2019.

Pollard ran in more favorable situations and didn’t have as much usage, maxing out at 232 touches in a season, but he has exceeded Elliott in carry success rate over the past two seasons as well (55% vs. 53% in 2021, 50% vs. 49% in 2022), so he’s been the more efficient back any way you look at it and he could easily break out as one of the best feature backs in the league with Elliott out of his way. That’s not a guarantee, especially with Pollard coming off of a broken leg that he suffered in the post-season last year, but even if he wasn’t coming off the injury, he would still be a projection to a larger role, and I wouldn’t expect him to be as efficient in a bigger role even in a best case scenario, but he doesn’t have to be quite as efficient to be one of the more productive running backs in the league in a bigger workload. 

The Cowboys are betting on Pollard breaking out in his new expanded role, using much of the 13.1 million they saved from releasing Elliott to keep Pollard on the 10.091 million dollar franchise tag, a number he should exceed annually on a long-term deal if he can show himself to be healthy and capable of being a featured back in this offense in 2023. Releasing Elliott at that huge number was a no brainer and keeping Pollard, who will almost definitely be an upgrade, at a fraction of that cost makes sense as well.

Unfortunately, the Cowboys’ depth behind Pollard is a concern without Elliott, especially concerning since Pollard is coming off of an injury and is still a projection to his new larger role. The Cowboys finished last season 6th in the league with 531 carries as a team and if they want to come close to that number in 2023, they will need another running back to prove capable of handling a somewhat significant role. Malik Davis is currently penciled in as the #2 running back and the 2022 undrafted free agent flashed a lot of potential as a rookie in a very limited role, with 2.10 yards per route run and 4.24 yards per carry, but he’s still very inexperienced and an underwhelming option as the primary backup. 

The Cowboys probably want to avoid overloading Pollard, so whoever his backup is will probably see at least somewhat significant action, probably in both running and passing situations, and that very well could be Davis, who flashed potential in both aspects of the game in very limited rookie year action. The Cowboys also used a 6th round pick on Kansas State’s Deuce Vaughn and seem like a strong candidate to add veteran depth before the start of the season. Any veteran they add would be more of a threat to the young backup running backs than it would be to Pollard’s expected feature back role though, as Pollard looks like the clear lead back, which elevates an otherwise underwhelming position group.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The only big change on the offensive line is that they lost left guard Connor McGovern in free agency, but will probably get a healthier year out of left tackle Tyron Smith, who was limited to 271 snaps in 4 games last season. Smith’s return will push his injury replacement Tyler Smith to left guard where he’ll be a replacement for McGovern. The Cowboys are left without much depth and would be in trouble if any of their starters missed significant time with injury, but they could have a solid starting five again.

Tyler Smith played pretty well, finishing with a 71.4 PFF grade on the season, making all but one start at left tackle as a rookie last season, with the other coming at left guard, now his new starting position. It’s possible Smith won’t be as good at a new position, but guard also could be an easier position for him to play and it would be a surprise at all if he took a step forward in year two and became one of the better guards in the league. He was originally drafted to be the long-term replacement for Tyron Smith, who is now going into his age 33 season, but, for now, guard is where Tyler Smith will play.

Tyron Smith’s age is a concern, especially when you consider his injury history, missing at least 3 games in each of the past 7 seasons, with a total of 45 games missed over that stretch and 33 games missed over the past 3 seasons. However, he’s surpassed 75 on PFF in 8 of the past 10 seasons, including a 91.4 grade as recently as 2021 (11 starts), so, if he can stay healthy, even if he declines from his prime form, he should remain at least an above average starter, but that dominant 2021 campaign was surrounded by seasons in which he’s been limited to 2 starts and 4 starts respectively, and it’s entirely possible he misses another significant chunk of time with injury in 2023.

If Tyron Smith does miss more time, the Cowboys replacement options wouldn’t be great. Matt Waletzko, a 2022 5th round pick, only played one snap as a rookie, while 2021 4th round pick Josh Ball has played just 42 career snaps, and those are the only reserve offensive tackles on the roster aside from recent undrafted free agents with no experience. The Cowboys could move Tyler Smith back to tackle if Tyron Smith misses time, but their replacement options at guard only include Chuma Edoga, a 2019 3rd round pick who has been mediocre in 13 career starts, 2021 7th round pick Matt Farinok, who has struggled mightily in 214 career snaps, and 5th round rookie Asim Richards, who would likely be overmatched in a starting role in year one.

The Cowboys’ depth problems are even more concerning when you consider that right tackle Terence Steele tore his ACL in week 14 last season and might not be ready for the start of this season. Even if he is, he could easily not be 100% to start the season. Steele had a 73.9 PFF grade in 13 starts in last season, but he would have been a candidate to regress even before the injury, as Steele is a 2020 undrafted free agent who had formerly received grades of 50.3 and 64.5 respectively from PFF in the first two seasons of his career (27 starts), before his career best year in 2022. With an ACL tear in the mix now, Steele seems likely to have a hard time repeating his career best year again in 2023.

The Cowboys also have an aging star player at right guard, as Zach Martin is also going into his age 33 season. Martin has been one of the best guards in the league for years, exceeding 80 on PFF in 8 straight seasons to begin his career from 2014-2021, but he dropped off to 73.3 in 2022 and he could very well be on the permanent decline. He could remain an above average starter, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he declined further and it seems unlikely he’ll bounce back to his peak form.

The Cowboys also don’t have much depth at center, with no experienced players behind starter Tyler Biadasz, who is going into his 3rd season in that role, posting decent 64.8 and 61.7 grades on PFF and making 33 out of 34 possible starts. The 2020 4th round pick is still only in his 4th season in the league, so he could have a little untapped potential, but, even if he doesn’t, he should remain a capable starter. There is potential for this to be a solid offensive line, but the Cowboys have two starters in their age 33 season and a right tackle coming off of a significant injury, with minimal depth across the board, so there is potential for a lot of downside here too.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Cowboys’ defense was the strength of this team last season, ranking 2nd in defensive DVOA, and their edge defender group was probably the strength of their defense. That should remain the case in 2023, with this group not changing in any meaningful ways this off-season, aside from adding San Jose State’s Viliami Fehoko in the 4th round of the draft to give themselves even more depth. This position was led last season by Micah Parsons, who is one of the top defensive players in the league, and that should remain the case this season. 

The 12th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Parsons burst onto the season with a 89.8 PFF grade as a rookie, struggling against the run, but totaling 13 sacks, 15 hits, and a 21.8% pressure rate, and then he followed that up with a 91.6 PFF grade in his second season in the league, 2nd among edge defenders on PFF, taking a big step forward against the run and continuing to be a highly effective pass rusher, with 13.5 sacks, 15 hits, and a 18.4% pressure rate. Still only in his age 24 season, Parsons should remain one of the top edge defenders in the league for years to come and he should be on the short list of Defensive Player of the Year candidates.

The Cowboys also have DeMarcus Lawrence, who has been one of the best edge defenders in the league for years, with 45.5 sacks, 56 hits, and a 13.7% pressure rate in 88 games over the past 6 seasons combined, but he is going into his age 31 season now and, though he still had a 78.1 PFF grade last season, that was his first season below 80 since 2016, so he seems to be declining a little bit and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued declining further in 2023. He should remain an above average edge defender, but his best days are almost definitely behind him.

Reserves Sam Williams (274 snaps), Dorance Armstrong (542 snaps), Dante Fowler (343 snaps) all played pretty well last season, with PFF grades of 70.9, 61.8, and 63.2 respectively, especially performing well as pass rushers, with pressure rates of 13.3%, 12.3%, and 15.9% respectively and a combined 18.5 sacks and 19 hits across the three of them. Williams was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and could take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2023, possibly in an extended role, which could come at the expense of the aging DeMarcus Lawrence. 

Dorance Armstrong was a 4th round pick in 2018 and struggled as a reserve in his first three seasons in the league, but he played 507 snaps in 2021 and also had a decent 65.7 grade, with 5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate, so he should be able to continue being a capable rotational player for the third straight season in 2023. Fowler is coming off a career best year as a pass rusher, though he has exceeded 60 as a pass rusher on PFF in six straight seasons, with 37 sacks, 36 hits, and a 11.1% pressure rate in 92 games over that stretch. He has mostly struggled against the run in his career and he probably won’t be as good as a pass rusher again in 2023, but he could easily remain a useful rotational player. This remains a very deep and talented position group.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The interior defender position was a position of relative weakness on defense for the Cowboys last season, so it makes sense that they used their first round pick on Michigan’s Mazi Smith, who figures to have a significant role immediately in year one, likely as a starter. Smith figures to have some growing pains in year one, but has a good chance to be at least a solid starter. He’ll likely start next to Osa Odighizuwa, the biggest bright spot of this group a year ago, as the 2021 3rd round pick had a 63.3 overall PFF grade on 616 snaps, especially playing well as a pass rusher, with 4 sacks, 7 hits, and a 9.0% pressure rate. 

Odighizuwa was also a solid pass rusher as a rookie in 2021 with 2 sacks, 7 hits, and a 9.3% pressure rate in a similar role (614 snaps), but he struggled mightily against the run (37.6 PFF grade). He still wasn’t good as a run defender in year two (54.7 PFF grade), but he was noticeably better. His run defense will likely remain a weakness in his third season in the league, but he should continue being a good enough pass rusher to make up for it.

Another recent third round pick, Chauncey Golston, was the Cowboys’ only other edge defender to finish above 60 on PFF last season, doing so on just 237 snaps, but he had a similar season on 414 snaps as a rookie in 2021, so he’s shown enough that he could earn an expanded role in 2023, even if he remains a reserve. His run defense has been underwhelming in his career, but he has an impressive 8.6% pressure rate in his limited action. Neville Gallimore was also a recent third round pick (2020), but he hasn’t been nearly as good of a selection, with grades of 52.1, 49.6, and 36.6 on snap counts of 416, 164, and 402 in his first three seasons in the league. He may have a little untapped upside, but that’s far from a guarantee and shouldn’t be guaranteed a rotational role or a roster spot at a position group that is deeper than it’s been in recent years.

The Cowboys also have veteran Johnathan Hankins and 2021 6th round pick Quinton Bohanna in the mix. Hankins was acquired in a trade with the Raiders mid-season last year, but he only played 115 snaps in 5 games and struggled mightily, before going down for the year with an injury. Hankins has had better years in the past, finishing above 60 on PFF in eight straight seasons to begin his career from 2013-2020, with four seasons over 70, but he’s had the two worst seasons by far of his career in the past two seasons (46.9 and 46.0) and, now going into his age 31 season, is likely to continue struggling. Bohanna, meanwhile, has struggled on snap counts of 222 and 264 respectively in two seasons in the league and wasn’t a high draft pick, so it’s very possible he never gets any better. This is a young group with some upside and the addition of Mazi Smith definitely makes them better, but they still have some concerns.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

Leighton Vander Esch remains the Cowboys’ top linebacker, coming off of a season in which he received a 70.8 PFF grade on 745 snaps. That was his best single season grade since his rookie season in 2018, when the 19th overall pick seemingly burst onto the scene with a 84.4 PFF grade on 785 snaps. However, injuries and inconsistent play led to him playing just 510 snaps, 460 snaps, and 661 snaps respectively over the next three seasons, while receiving PFF grades of 58.4, 50.6, and 63.5, before staying healthy and bouncing back somewhat to his rookie year form in 2022. Vander Esch is still only going into his age 26 season and could remain an above average every down linebacker, but there’s a good chance he regresses and/or misses time with injury, so I wouldn’t expect as much out of him as the Cowboys got a year ago.

Anthony Barr was the Cowboys’ other starting linebacker last season, receiving a 59.7 PFF grade on 608 snaps, but the Cowboys let the veteran leave this off-season, opting to replace him by promoting 2022 5th round pick Damone Clark, who flashed potential with a solid 65.5 grade on 398 snaps as a rookie. Clark is still a projection to a larger role and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he ended up as a liability in his first season as an every down player, but he also could take a step forward in his second season in the league and continue his solid play into a larger role.

If Clark struggles or can’t lock down the job, the Cowboys have third round rookie DeMarvion Overshown, who figures to be the third linebacker, playing sparingly as an early down run stuffer in base packages, but who also could play a larger role if needed, though he might struggle in that role. The Cowboys also still have 2021 4th round pick Jabril Cox, but he hasn’t shown much in the very few snaps (46) he has played in two seasons in the league and it’s unlikely they are suddenly planning on giving him a significant role in year three. This isn’t a bad linebacking corps, but there is a lot of youth and inexperience and their top player, Leighton Vander Esch, has a history of injury and inconsistency.

Grade: B

Secondary

The biggest addition the Cowboys made on defense this offense was trading for veteran cornerback Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore only cost the Cowboys a fifth round pick in draft compensation because Gilmore is going into his age 33 season and is owed 10 million this season, but he’s been one of the best cornerbacks in the league for years and he hasn’t declined much yet, finishing last season with a 79.1 grade on PFF, his 7th season over 70 in the past 9 seasons. 

Gilmore is unlikely to ever return to his prime form, when he received PFF grades of 90.7 and 82.8 respectively in 2018 and 2019, and he might have trouble even being as good as he was last year again this year, given his age, but, barring an unexpectedly massive drop off, he should remain at least an above average starting cornerback, making him a welcome addition for a Cowboys team that needed help at the position, with Gilmore essentially replacing fellow veteran Anthony Brown, who had a 55.0 PFF grade on 728 snaps last season.

Trevon Diggs remains as another starter. He’s well known for the 17 interceptions he has in three seasons since entering the league as a 2nd round pick in 2020, which are tied for the most in the NFL over that span, but he has also allowed 2,361 receiving yards over that stretch, which is also most in the NFL over that stretch, and he’s consistently struggled against the run. His pass defense grades from PFF have still been decent, at 63.9, 66.7, and 66.1 respectively across the three seasons he’s been in the league, but those are not nearly as good as you’d expect just based on his interception totals. Diggs is still in his age 26 season and could continue getting better and he should benefit from having Gilmore opposite him, but I would expect for Gilmore to still be their best cornerback overall and for Diggs to continue being a boom or bust player.

The third cornerback role in this secondary is up for grabs. Veteran Jourdan Lewis has been a starter for the Cowboys for several years, starting 30 of 37 games played over the past three seasons, while playing 52.2 snaps per game, but he has been underwhelming with PFF grades of 48.1, 61.4, and 59.1 respectively. He was better in a more limited role earlier in his career and could benefit from going back to that role, but he could also remain a starter if no one else proves to be a better option.

DaRon Bland is probably their best alternative option, after flashing potential with a 71.9 PFF grade on 597 snaps last season as mostly an injury replacement from Lewis, playing well despite being just a 5th round rookie. Bland is a projection to a larger role and wasn’t a high draft pick, but he could easily end up developing into a solid starter long-term and could prove to be an upgrade over Lewis as soon as this season. The Cowboys also used 2nd and 3rd round picks in the 2021 NFL Draft on cornerbacks Kelvin Joseph and Nashon Wright and they could be candidates for larger roles, but they have played just 332 snaps and 220 snaps respectively in their careers thus far and could easily remain buried on the depth chart.

At safety, the Cowboys have a trio of starting caliber players and they use them together frequently, to compensate for their questionable depth at linebacker and cornerback. Malik Hooker (860 snaps), Jayron Kearse (815 snaps), and Donovan Wilson (959 snaps) all finished with impressive grades of 73.9, 70.2, and 70.1 respectively in 2022 and all could continue playing at a similar level in 2023. 

Kearse didn’t become a starter until his 6th season in the league in 2021, but he also had an impressive PFF grade that season at 76.8, and he’s flashed potential as a reserve before, so he should remain a solid starting caliber player in 2023. Wilson had never played as many snaps as he did last season before, but he did receive grades of 72.0 and 62.5 respectively on PFF on snap counts of 673 and 338 respectively in two seasons of significant action prior to last season, so he has a good chance to remain a solid starting caliber player as well this season. 

Hooker, meanwhile, has been a starter since entering the league as a first round pick in 2017 and has exceeded 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including two seasons over 70, but durability has always been an issue for him, costing him 47 games total in his career, with at least one game missed in every season in the league. He should continue playing at a pretty high level when healthy, but he’s a strong candidate to miss more time with injury. All three safeties have a good chance to remain solid starting caliber players, in a secondary that is well above average overall, especially with the addition of cornerback Stephon Gilmore.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Cowboys are still probably behind the Eagles in the division, but they are one of the few teams in the NFC that was a contender a year ago that didn’t get worse from a year ago and, in fact, they are arguably better, due to the additions of veterans Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore. It would be nice if they could win their division and secure homefield advantage, but the rest of the NFC is so weak that the Cowboys could make a run though the post-season even as a wild card and they are arguably the second best team in the NFC overall behind their division rivals. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 11-6, 2nd in NFC East

Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (11-4) at Tennessee Titans (7-8)

The Titans have collapsed in recent weeks, losing five straight after a 7-3 start. That’s not all that surprising though, as the Titans’ wins were never that impressive. None of the Titans’ wins came against teams that currently have a winning record and almost all came by slim margins of victory. Only two of the Titans’ wins have come by more than a touchdown and neither win was as impressive as that suggests, as they needed a defensive touchdown to push the margin to 9 against the Colts, while their 10-point win over the Packers came against a team in a terrible spot, playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 2-22 ATS all-time. Meanwhile, the Titans’ seven losses have come by a combined 89 points, leading to an underwhelming -43 point differential, and they rank just 24th in DVOA.

Making matters worse, the Titans have been among the most injury plagued teams in the league, missing several starters on both sides of the ball in recent weeks, and this week is the most short-handed they’ve been, as they are resting anyone who has any sort of injury in what is actually a meaningless game for the Titans, whose playoff chances are not affected at all by the outcome of this game, with a wild card spot out of reach and the division to be decided by the Titans’ matchup with the Jaguars next week.

In total, the Titans will be missing starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, four starters on the offensive line, Taylor Lewan, Ben Jones, Nate Davis, and Nicholas Petit-Frere, feature back Derrick Henry, stud interior defender Jeffery Simmons, their top-3 edge defenders Denico Autry, Bud Dupree, and Harold Landry, starting linebackers Zach Cunningham and David Long, expected starting cornerbacks Caleb Farley and Kristian Fulton, and talented safety Amani Hooker, giving them a SIC score of 53.4 which will almost definitely be the lowest in the league this week. 

The relatively healthy Cowboys, on the other hand, are at 86.4 and enter this game 4th in DVOA, so this is a big mismatch. The oddsmakers have pushed this line all the time to favoring Dallas by 12.5 as a result of the Titans’ injuries though, so we’re not getting any line value with the Cowboys. However, I still am going to take the Cowboys for pick ‘em purposes because the Titans’ players who do play may be less motivated than they otherwise would be in a game that doesn’t matter and that the coaching staff is treating like it doesn’t matter, resting players who would otherwise play. There’s not nearly enough here for the Cowboys to be worth betting, but they should be the better side against the spread this week.

Dallas Cowboys 23 Tennessee Titans 10

Pick against the spread: Dallas -12.5

Confidence: None

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (13-1) at Dallas Cowboys (10-4)

The Eagles have lost quarterback and likely MVP favorite Jalen Hurts for this game with injury, but all hope is not lost in this critical divisional battle in Dallas, for several reasons. For one, the Eagles are far more than just Jalen Hurts. As well as Hurts has played, this team is 13-1, ranks 1st in point differential (+143), and 3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency (+6.29), and they could not have done that without a strong supporting cast. In fact, in terms of my roster rankings, the Eagles actually have the most non-quarterback talent of any team in the league.

The Eagles’ talented supporting cast is in large part due to the fact that, even with Hurts out, the Eagles are still one of the healthier teams in the league, with 20 of their expected 22 starters on offense and defense playing this week, including talented tight end Dallas Goedert, who is notably making his return from a 5-game absence this week. Given how late in the season it is, that’s remarkably healthy. The Eagles also have one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league in Gardner Minshew, who is a better option than several other regular starters around the league. 

Between having a starting caliber backup and a dominant supporting cast, the Eagles should still have more than enough talent to at least compete with the Cowboys in this game, ranking 3rd in the NFL in my roster rankings even with Hurts out, actually ahead of the Cowboys, who rank 7th in my roster rankings, as well as ranking 9th in schedule adjusted efficiency (+3.17). The Eagles are also more likely to play harder in this game than the Cowboys, as good teams tend to do when forced to play with a backup quarterback. 

The Cowboys, meanwhile, will have another game four days after this one on Thursday Night Football, a spot in which favorites cover at just a 43.2% rate, and they may relax a little bit against a backup quarterback, which they can’t afford to do, given how talented the rest of the Eagles’ roster is. Despite that, the Cowboys are 4.5-point favorites in this game, a pretty high number, given that about 3 out of 10 games are decided by four points or fewer. My calculated line actually has this as a toss up, so I love the value we’re getting with the Eagles, who still have a great chance to win and pull the upset even with Minshew. The Eagles are my Pick of the Week.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Dallas Cowboys 23 Upset Pick +180

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +4.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (10-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-8)

The Jaguars are in a good spot in this game, with the Cowboys likely to get caught looking forward to a much bigger game against the Eagles next week, but this line only favors the Cowboys by four points, so we’re not getting great line value with the Jaguars, who have lost by more than four points in seven of their eight losses. The Cowboys, meanwhile, rank 7th in schedule adjusted efficiency, five points ahead of the 19th ranked Jaguars, even though the Cowboys were without starting quarterback Dak Prescott for five games. I’m still taking the Jaguars, but this is a low confidence pick.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 24

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +4

Confidence: Low

Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (1-10-1) at Dallas Cowboys (9-3)

This line is high, favoring the Cowboys over the Texans by 17 points. The Texans have been the worst team in the league this season, ranking dead last in schedule adjusted efficiency (6.5 points below average) and dead last in point differential (-99), but, as bad as they have been, they have only lost one game by more than 17 points and that was an 18-point loss, so the Texans certainly have a chance to cover this huge spread, even against a Cowboys team that is one of the best in the NFL. 

The Texans will also benefit from going back to their original starting quarterback Davis Mills, after starting terrible backup quarterback Kyle Allen for their past two games, an attempt to spark this team that backfired in a big way, leading to losses of 15 points and 13 points in the past two weeks. There’s not nearly enough here for the Texans to be worth betting and my calculated line barely gives us any line value with them, with the Cowboys favored by 16.5 points, but if I had to pick a side for pick ‘em purposes, it would be Houston.

Dallas Cowboys 30 Houston Texans 14

Pick against the spread: Houston +17

Confidence: None

Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (4-7-1) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3)

This is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week. This line is at Dallas -10.5, which is right where my calculated line has it, favoring the Colts just slightly against the spread at this number, and there also aren’t any situational trends affecting either side. I’m taking the Colts purely for pick ‘em purposes, hoping they can at least get a backdoor cover against a big spread, but I can’t be at all confident in either side in this one.

Dallas Cowboys 23 Indianapolis Colts 13

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +10.5

Confidence: None

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (7-3) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)

A week ago on the early line, the Cowboys were 6.5 point favorites, but this line has since shifted all the way to 10, as a result of the Cowboys’ blowout win in Minnesota and the Giants’ blowout loss in Detroit. Normally I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements like this because they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play, but in this case I think the line movement is justified, not only because of the results of last week, but also because the Giants are now missing their two best cornerbacks, Adoree Jackson and Fabian Moreau, as well as several offensive linemen. On top of that, I think the line was too low at 6.5 to begin with.

The Giants are 7-3, but that’s a very misleading record. In addition to their blowout loss to a sub .500 Lions team last week, their second multi-score loss of the season, the Giants’ seven wins have all come by one score, with just two coming against teams that are currently better than 4-7. As a result, the Giants have just a +1 point differential, despite a relatively easy schedule. The Cowboys have the same record at 7-3, but they have a +84 point differential (2nd best in the NFL), despite facing a tougher schedule. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Cowboys rank 7th, 4.5 points above average, while the Giants rank 27th, 4.5 points below average.

That’s despite the fact that the Cowboys were without starting quarterback Dak Prescott for five games earlier this season. He has since returned and the Cowboys are now relatively healthy overall, while the Giants are going the other way injury wise, leading to the Cowboys having a 12-point edge in my roster rankings. Given that, we’re actually still getting some line value with the Cowboys, as my calculated line favors them by 14 points. I wouldn’t bet on the Cowboys at 10, but if this line drops down to 9.5, they would be worth betting at that number and, either way, the Cowboys are the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Dallas Cowboys 27 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: Dallas -10

Confidence: Low

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (6-3) at Minnesota Vikings (8-1)

The Vikings are 8-1, but they have won all seven of their one-score games and have won the turnover battle by 8 (2nd best in the NFL), both of which are not sustainable long-term. They beat the Bills last week, but Buffalo was missing several key defenders and, despite that, the Vikings lost the first down rate battle and yards per play battle by 9.04% and 0.66 respectively, needing to win the turnover battle by two and to score a defensive touchdown to barely win in overtime. 

Even with that win taken into account, the Vikings still rank just 19th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about one point below average, which is much more predictive than turnover margin. The Cowboys are a couple games worse in the standings, but rank about 3.5 points above average in schedule adjusted efficiency, 8th in the league, even though starting quarterback Dak Prescott missed five games with injury. The public and the oddsmakers both seem to understand that though, leading to the Vikings actually being 2-point home underdogs in this game.

With that in mind, I actually like the Vikings for pick ‘em purposes. While there is a significant gap between these two teams in schedule adjusted efficiency, my roster rankings have them much closer together, with the Vikings still among the most talented teams in the league, despite what the statistics say, and I think the Vikings could play with a chip on their shoulder being underdogs yet again. There isn’t enough here for the Vikings to be worth betting against the spread, but they seem like the right side for pick ‘em purposes and a small bet on the money line at +105 makes sense as well, as the Vikings should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game here at home.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Dallas Cowboys 23 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +1.5

Confidence: Low

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-6)

This game is a tough call. On one hand, the Packers have been close to an automatic bet at home with Aaron Rodgers in his career, going 47-21 ATS in games he starts and finishes, including 5-1 ATS as home underdogs, as he is this week, by 4.5 points against the Dallas Cowboys. On the other hand, this line makes sense even with the Packers’ significant homefield advantage and the Cowboys are also in a great spot as big road favorites after a bye, with road favorites of more than a field goal covering at a 63.3% rate all-time after a bye.

Coming into the season, I was expecting the Packers to regress. The Packers went 13-4 last season, but finished just 10th in point differential and 11th in overall efficiency, despite an MVP season from Aaron Rodgers who, as good as he is, was no guarantee to play at quite the same level in 2022, now in his age 39 season. Add in the loss of by far their top wide receiver Davante Adams this off-season and some regression was to be expected from them, especially on offense.

On offense, the Packers have fallen from 4th to 16th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency and, while their defense has remained middle of the pack, ranking 15th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, after ranking 17th last season, they’re likely is likely to fall off significantly on that side of the ball going forward, due to the long-term absence of two of their best defensive players, De’vondre Campbell and Rashan Gary, who are among the best players in the league at their respective positions. 

The Packers also have continued to struggle on special teams, ranking 30th in special teams efficiency, after ranking dead last a year ago and, all in all, the Packers are already 3-6 and rank just 22nd in schedule adjusted efficiency, 2.5 points below average, which could easily get worse going forward, as injuries pile up. The Cowboys, meanwhile, rank 5th in schedule adjusted efficiency, 4.5 points above average, even though quarterback Dak Prescott missed five and a half games with injury, which he has since returned from.

Even factoring in five points for homefield advantage for the Packers, which is several points more than the standard, my calculated line is still Dallas -4, which is right around where this line is, at Dallas -4.5 in reality. In normal circumstances, I would probably take the Packers for a no confidence pick, but the Cowboys do have a strong trend on their side so I am going to take them for pick ‘em purposes. There isn’t nearly enough here for the Cowboys to be worth betting on, but, even with the Packers’ recent home dominance, no one should be surprised if the well-rested and relatively healthy Cowboys come into Green Bay and beat this mediocre and banged up Packers team relatively easily.

Dallas Cowboys 30 Green Bay Packers 24

Pick against the spread: Dallas -4.5

Confidence: Low