Washington Redskins (3-12) at Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
The Cowboys are just 7-8 and their playoff hopes are hanging by a thread, needing a win and a Philadelphia loss to win the historically bad NFC East. Despite that, they rank 7th in the NFL with a +82 point differential. Their average margin of victory is 18.57 points per game, but they’ve had a very tough time in close games, going 1-6 in games decided by one score or less and 0-4 in games decided by 4 points or fewer. This is a year after going 9-3 in one score games with almost the same roster and coaching staff. A team’s record in close games tends to be unpredictable on a year-to-year basis and tends to even out in the long run, but the Cowboys have done a complete 180 this season.
Fortunately, the Cowboys end the season with a very easy home game against the Redskins and could easily get their 6th win by 18 points or more this season. Even if they don’t quite get to 18, this spread is only 11 and they should be able to win with ease and cover this spread. The Redskins were a pretty bad team to begin with, but they come into this game with a skeleton crew roster due to injuries. Their defense has already been without their top pass rusher Ryan Kerrigan and cornerback Quinton Dunbar for several weeks, but they will also be without talented safety Landon Collins as well as fellow defensive backs Fabian Moreau, Josh Norman, and Montae Nicholson this week. Over the past 4 weeks, the Redskins have allowed a 40.00% first down rate without Dunbar and Kerrigan and their injury situation is even worse this week.
The only reason the Redskins haven’t been getting blown out in recent weeks is rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins developing into a capable starting quarterback, leading this offense to a 40.08% first down rate, but Haskins is also out this week, forcing the Redskins to go back to backup caliber quarterback Case Keenum. Making matters even tougher for Keenum, he’ll be without top wide receiver Terry McLaurin and top offensive lineman Brandon Scherff. Missing everyone they are missing, the Redskins rank dead last in my roster rankings this week and are very likely to be blown out by the Cowboys like many others have been this season.
I wish the Cowboys were in a better injury situation though, as quarterback Dak Prescott is playing at less than 100% through a shoulder injury, while cornerback Byron Jones, left tackle Tyron Smith, and linebacker Sean Lee are considered truly questionable after not practicing on Friday. Even with the Cowboys’ injury uncertainty, I have this line calculated at Dallas -15.5, so the Cowboys are still worth a small bet, but I was considering a much larger bet earlier in the week before the injury uncertainty.
Dallas Cowboys 26 Washington Redskins 10
Pick against the spread: Dallas -11