Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys: 2020 Week 12 NFL Pick

Washington Football Team (3-7) at Dallas Cowboys (3-7)

Both of these teams are just 3-7, but Washington has been the significantly better team this season. While the Cowboys rank 30th in point differential at -83, Washington ranks a relatively respectable 22nd at -27. On top of that, Washington has struggled in metrics that are inconsistent on a week-to-week basis and could improve going forward, like turnover margin (4th worst in the NFL at -6) and net field goal percentage (-15.71%). In terms of schedule adjusted first down rate, which minimizes the value of outlier snaps, Washington actually ranks 9th at +1.55%.

Washington is led by its defense, ranking 5th in first down rate allowed over expected but just 27th in first down rate over expected, which is the significantly less consistent and predictive side of the ball, so Washington could easily regress on that side of the ball going forward, especially since they have outplayed their defensive talent level and have lost key players like Landon Collins and Matt Ioannidis to injury, but that should be offset somewhat by the fact that their offense has looked much better since Alex Smith took over at quarterback.

Dallas is better than their point differential, as they have also struggled with turnovers (2nd in the NFL at -12), which is something that is very inconsistent week-to-week, and they have played better since getting healthier, with stud right guard Zack Martin (1 game missed), quarterback Andy Dalton (2 games), starting linebackers Leighton Vander Esch (4 games) and Sean Lee (7 games), top cornerback Chidobe Awuzie (7 games), and other minor players returning from injury in recent weeks, but, even with that factored in, they are still behind Washington in my roster rankings and in schedule adjusted first down rate differential. 

In fact, I have Washington 2.5 points better than Dallas overall, which, even with Dallas having some homefield advantage, still gives us a calculated line of Washington -1. Getting the full field goal with Washington at +3 is a great value in a game they could win straight up. Washington is worth betting both against the spread and on the money line. I am also locking in TB +3.5 and TEN +3.5 for later this weekend before those lines move. I will have full write ups for those games with all of this weekend’s picks.

Washington Football Team 20 Dallas Cowboys 19 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: Medium

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings: 2020 Week 11 NFL Pick

Dallas Cowboys (2-7) at Minnesota Vikings (4-5)

I have picked the Vikings for three straight Pick of the Weeks since their week 7 bye and they have covered in all three games. The metrics that made me think the Vikings were underrated like the field goal percentage against (100%), net 4th down conversion rate (+31.8%), fumble recovery rate (35.71%), and Kirk Cousins interception rate being double his career average (5.3% vs. 2.4%) still have some room for regression, at 95.83%, +16.7%, 38.10%, and 4.5% respectively, so I think they’re still underrated. 

In terms of schedule adjusted first down rate differential, which minimizes the effect of the metrics mentioned above, the Vikings rank 10th at +1.62%, which lines up with my roster rankings, which have them 9th. They were a 4th down conversion from winning in Seattle and they lost by 1 to the Titans in a game in which the Titans hit three field goals from 50+ yards, so they could easily be 6-3 right now, despite a tough schedule.

However, the Vikings aren’t as underrated as they used to be, as this line, favoring them by a touchdown at home, is right about where it should be, given that the Vikings will hardly have any fans at this game. That line being accurate is partially because the Cowboys are underrated themselves though. The Cowboys obviously haven’t had a good start to their season, especially since losing quarterback Dak Prescott for the season, but aside from Prescott, the Cowboys are getting a lot healthier on the rest of this roster, after being decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball. 

Their two stud offensive tackles Tyron Smith and La’El Collins remain out for the season along with Prescott, but backup quarterback Andy Dalton returns from a 2-game absence to at least give them an NFL caliber quarterback under center and they will also benefit from the presence of stud right guard Zack Martin (1 game missed), starting linebackers Leighton Vander Esch (4 games) and Sean Lee (7 games), top cornerback Chidobe Awuzie (7 games), and other minor players who have all returned from injury as well. In fact, my numbers suggest the Cowboys are slightly better than 50/50 to cover this spread against a solid Vikings team. This is a no confidence pick, but if I had to pick a side, I would go with Dallas.

Minnesota Vikings 30 Dallas Cowboys 24

Pick against the spread: Dallas +7

Confidence: None

Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys: 2020 Week 9 NFL Pick

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-5)

Last week, I picked the Cowboys as a low confidence pick as 11-point underdogs. My reasoning was that teams that fail to cover in their first 7 games tend to be solid bets going forward (62% all-time) because books know they can over-inflate their lines, as evidenced by the Cowboys being 11-point underdogs in Philadelphia against a middling at best Eagles team, but I also didn’t want to risk any money on a quarterback in Ben DiNucci who had never played before and might not be good enough to even be a backup in this league, which is why I limited it to a low confidence pick.

Sure enough, the game went as I expected, with the Eagles actually trailing 9-7 late in the third quarter and at one point leading by just 15-9 midway through the fourth quarter with the Cowboys driving, before DiNucci gave up a strip sack fumble that was recovered for a long return touchdown to not just secure the win for the Eagles, but to also push them to a front door cover. The Cowboys were probably the right side in that game because things like return touchdowns tend to be fluky on a week-to-week basis (not to mention that the touchdown easily could have been called back on replay), but I was also right to not bet any money on it, given the untrustworthiness of the Cowboys’ remaining healthy quarterbacks.

This game seems about the same to me, with the Cowboys being 14.5-point home underdogs against the Steelers. The Steelers haven’t lost all season, but they also have just one win by more than 10 points, including competitive games against lesser teams like the Giants, Broncos, and Eagles, so the Cowboys being competitive enough to keep this within two scores is certainly a possibility, especially if the Steelers look past the Cowboys, which they’ve had a tendency to do against lower ranked non-divisional opponents on the road in the Mike Tomlin era. Since Tomlin took over in 2007, the Steelers are just 5-15 ATS as non-divisional road favorites of 4.5 or more and have lost 8 of those 20 games straight up. 

However, even though the Cowboys seem like the right side, I have no desire to place any money on it because I have no faith in whoever will start at quarterback this week, whether it be Cooper Rush or Garrett Gilbert this week, with Ben DiNucci getting the hook after one dismal game. Like last week’s game against the Eagles, this is a low confidence pick on the Cowboys. If they can avoid getting killed in the turnover battle and don’t give up any return touchdowns, I would expect this to be a little closer than most people think, but the Cowboys can’t be trusted to do that right now.

Pittsburgh Steelers 30 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against the spread: Dallas +14.5

Confidence: Low

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: 2020 Week 8 NFL Pick

Dallas Cowboys (2-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-4-1)

I can’t remember a team ever falling in my rankings as fast as the Cowboys. Going into the season, I had pretty high expectations for the Cowboys, who finished last season 6th in point differential at +113 and 5th in first down rate differential at +3.24%, but missed the playoffs at 8-8 because of an 0-5 record in games decided by one score or less. With a similar roster entering the season as last year, the Cowboys looked like one of the better teams in the league, but now the Cowboys rank dead last in my roster rankings. 

Injuries have been a big part of the problem, especially on offense, where the Cowboys are missing their dominant offensive tackle duo of Tyron Smith and La’El Collins and are down to 3rd string quarterback Ben DiNucci, a 7th round rookie making his first career start this season, but the Cowboys also have a lot of players who aren’t injured that just aren’t playing up to expectations, especially on defense, where close to no one is having a good season in the first year of overmatched defensive coordinator Mike Nolan’s scheme. Some of those veteran players have already been benched, traded, or released, while others remain in the starting lineup, but have struggled mightily. 

Outside of their receiving corps and their edge rush duo of DeMarcus Lawrence and Aldon Smith, this team really doesn’t have much going for them and they will be starting one of the least qualified starting quarterbacks the NFL has seen over the past few years. The per play stats show the Cowboys to have been better than their record and final scores have suggested, but much of that is due to an offense that was much better before injuries and primarily only struggled with fumbles, which tend to be fluky. Now without Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton, and others, this offense has plenty of problems beyond their fumbling tendencies, while their defense continues to struggle even as they’ve gotten a few players back that were not available earlier this season, including linebackers Leighton Vander Esch and Sean Lee.

All that being said, I think we’re actually getting some value with the Cowboys this week. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS on the season and when that happens the odds makers typically boost the spreads more than they should, knowing no one will want to bet on a consistent loser, which leads to those teams covering 62.3% of the time the rest of the way, including 75.0% of the time in their 8th game of the season. Case in point, the Cowboys are whopping 11-point underdogs against an Eagles team that isn’t even middling, ranking 21st in schedule adjusted first down rate differential and 23rd in my roster rankings, even with a couple players due back from injury this week. I have no desire to bet on the Cowboys, but my calculated line is Philadelphia -8 and Dallas should be the right pick if you have to make a pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Dallas Cowboys 16

Pick against the spread: Dallas +11

Confidence: Low

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Mascots: 2020 Week 7 NFL Pick

Dallas Cowboys (2-4) at Washington Mascots (1-5)

This is a tough one and I’ve been going back and forth on it. On one hand, the Cowboys have all the usual factors for a team that should be better going forward. They have a -12 turnover margin through 6 games and turnover margins are highly unpredictable on a week-to-week basis. At the very least, they should recover more than 28.57% of their fumbles going forward, but their fumble rate is likely to regress as well. 

In addition, they’ve played a tougher than average schedule, which gets significantly easier going forward. They’ve been competitive in most of their losses, within three of four games being one score games in the 4th quarter. With strength of schedule taken into account, the Cowboys rank 11th in first down rate differential at +1.98%. The Cowboys injury situation on offense can’t be ignored, with guard Zack Martin joining quarterback Dak Prescott, tight end Blake Jarwin, and offensive tackles Tyron Smith and La’El Collins on the sidelines. However, the Cowboys are getting healthier on defense with linebacker Leighton Vander Esch returning last week and cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, linebacker Sean Lee, and defensive end Randy Gregory all likely to return this week, and backup quarterback Andy Dalton should theoretically be a capable if underwhelming starter.

The Cowboys were much better in first down rate (4th in the NFL at +4.28%) than their 8-8 record last season, in part due to their tendency to blowout bad teams (7 wins by 18 points or more). The Cowboys have yet to do that this season, but they’ve won their only two games against lower level opponents (Falcons and Giants), despite losing the turnover battle in both games. In those two games, they won the first down rate battle by 10.80% and 12.95% respectively, even though Dalton played a big chunk of the game against the Giants and led the comeback. If they can do that again in this game against a bottom-5 team, they should be able to win fairly easily.

On the other hand, the Cowboys are nowhere near the same team they were last season and the dropoff from Dak Prescott to Andy Dalton looked bigger than expected in Dalton’s debut last week. If that’s the case, the Cowboys, who are poorly coached as well, will likely continue struggling going forward, despite their past success in first down rate differential. I’m still taking the Cowboys for pick ‘em purposes in this game, with the line moving from Dallas -3 on the early line last week to Dallas -1 this week, but I don’t have confidence in them.

Update: It looks like both Lee and Awuzie will miss another week for the Cowboys. I didn’t have any confidence in the Cowboys anyway, so I’m switching this to Washington.

Washington Mascots 24 Dallas Cowboys 23

Pick against the spread: Washington PK

Confidence: None

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys: 2020 Week 6 NFL Pick

Arizona Cardinals (3-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3)

I have been considering this as my Pick of the Week all week and, with good injury news coming in on Saturday, I think this makes the most sense of my top options this week, for several reasons. For one, I think this line is way off, favoring the Cardinals by 1.5 points on the road in Dallas, where the Cowboys will have something resembling a crowd in the stands. This line was at Dallas -3 a week ago and, while it’s certainly understandable that Dak Prescott’s injury would cause this line to move, there have been some other injury developments in this game since last week, with the Cardinals losing top edge defender and pass rusher Chandler Jones and the Cowboys likely to get top linebacker Leighton Vander Esch back from a 4-game absence, which is the injury news that solidified this pick for me.

As much as Prescott’s injury hurts the Cowboys, they at least have a capable experienced backup in Andy Dalton behind him, as opposed to the Cardinals, who severely lack pass rush talent without Jones, who was one of the best pass rushers in the game. Dalton has plenty of weapons around him on this offense and the Cardinals don’t have the edge defenders to take advantage of the Cowboys’ missing offensive tackles, so the Cowboys should still be able to move the ball with relative ease in this one. Meanwhile, the Cowboys defense should have a much better chance of slowing down the Cardinals with Vander Esch back in the lineup. I have the Cowboys about 1.5 points better than the Cardinals in my roster rankings, suggesting the Cowboys should be at least field goal favorites at home with some homefield advantage.

The Cowboys are also in a much better spot. While they also have an easy trip to Washington on deck, the Cardinals have to turn around and host the undefeated Seahawks in a major divisional game and they could easily look past the Cowboys as a result, especially with Dalton under center. Underdogs are 118-68 ATS since 2014 before being favorites when their opponent will next be favorites, including 11-2 ATS as home underdogs before being road favorites when their opponent will next be home underdogs. That should all be true here. Add in the additional motivation the Cowboys will have to silence doubters and win this one for Dak and I like their chances a lot in this one. Tampa Bay would probably be my Pick of the Week if not for Vander Esch, but the Cowboys are my top pick this week.

Dallas Cowboys 30 Arizona Cardinals 24 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Dallas +1.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2020 Week 5 NFL Pick

New York Giants (0-4) at Dallas Cowboys (1-3)

The Cowboys are a tough team to figure out. On one hand, they could easily be 0-4 if the Falcons had recovered an onside kick and they’ve been destroyed by injuries, with a list of long-term unavailable players that they were counting on for big contributions that includes the dominant offensive tackle duo of Tyron Smith and La’El Collins, pass catching tight end Blake Jarwin, starting defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, every down linebacker Leighton Vander Esch, and expected top cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, as well as his potential replacement Anthony Brown.

On the other hand, I liked them coming into the season because they finished last season 4th in first down rate differential and 6th in point differential and their bad record in close games was likely to even out in the long-term. This year, even though they could be 0-4, they’ve primarily been hurt by the turnover margin, which is something else that tends to even out in the long-term. The Cowboys have a league worst -7 turnover margin, in large part due to a 22.22% fumble recovery rate (1 of their own 7 fumbles recovered), but in terms of first down rate differential they actually rank 11th at +2.57%. Had they just recovered one of their first half fumbles against the Falcons, they likely wouldn’t have needed to recover an onside kick to win and their three losses were all relatively close games where the turnover margin played a big role. 

That’s a good sign for the Cowboys’ chances going forward, especially since their schedule is starting to get much easier after a tough start to the season. This home game against the Giants is probably their easiest game to date, only rivaled by their game against the Falcons in Atlanta in which the Cowboys won the first down rate battle by 10.80%. The Cowboys aren’t as talented as they were last year and the impact of their injuries can’t be understated, but they won seven games by double digits last season and it wouldn’t surprise me if this ended up being another multi-score win against an easy opponent.

Unfortunately, we aren’t really getting line value with the Cowboys as 8.5-point home favorites. This line has moved slightly from 11.5 on the early line last week, but I don’t think it’s moved enough to compensate for Tyron Smith going down. My calculated line is Dallas -6.5, as the Cowboys won’t have a normal homefield advantage and the Giants have the kind of defense that can keep this close, especially with the Cowboys so banged up on the offensive line.

The Giants’ offense might be the worst in the league without running back Saquon Barkley and they haven’t scored a touchdown in their last two games without him, but the Cowboys have a much easier defense to move the ball against than the 49ers or Rams, so the Giants could easily keep it close or get a backdoor cover. I wouldn’t bet either side, but I’m taking the Giants for pick ‘em purposes.

Dallas Cowboys 26 New York Giants 19

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +8.5

Confidence: Low

Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-2)

Coming into the year, I liked the Cowboys’ chances of being a contender, after tough luck in close games in 2019 (0-5 in games decided by 7 points or fewer after going 8-2 in those type of games with roughly the same team in 2018) led to the Cowboys missing the playoffs at 8-8, despite finishing 6th in the league in point differential at +113 and 4th in first down rate differential at +4.28%.

The Cowboys are just 1-2, but they’ve played better than that suggests, with their two losses coming on the road in close games against tough opponents in the Seahawks and Rams. Their one win was an improbable comeback over the Falcons, in which they needed to recover an onside kick to win, but there were some fluky things that led to the Cowboys needing to come back in the first place, like the Cowboys losing a trio of fumbles early. The Cowboys won the first down rate battle in that game by 10.80% and overall rank 7th in the league on the season at +4.38%, very much in line with how they played last season. That’s a good sign for their chances going forward.

What’s even more impressive is that the Cowboys have done this while not being close to full strength, missing their dominant offensive tackle duo of Tyron Smith and La’El Collins, pass catching tight end Blake Jarwin, every down linebacker Leighton Vander Esch and his potential replacement Sean Lee, and starting cornerbacks Chidobe Awuzie and Anthony Brown. They’re not the only team in the league to have significant injuries right now, but they’ve played well in spite of them, primarily due to quarterback Dak Prescott seemingly being on his way to his best season yet. If they can get healthy soon, they could easily be a dangerous team.

The Cowboys do get one key player back from injury this week in left tackle Tyron Smith, who is set to return from a 2-game absence. Unfortunately, the Cowboys have a tough matchup for Smith’s first game back, as even with Smith in the lineup, I have the Browns slightly higher in my roster rankings. The Browns’ season has started with a blowout loss to a dominant Ravens team and easy wins against the Bengals and Redskins (The Bengals needed to go 5 for 5 on 4th down just to cut the lead to 5 points at the last second). They haven’t been overly impressive, but they’re getting healthier and have been particularly impressive on the offensive line, where all five starters have played at a high level, a great sign, given that their offensive line was the primary reason for their disappointing 2019 season.

The Browns enter this game 10th in my roster rankings, a couple spots ahead of the Cowboys, who don’t have full homefield advantage either, so this 4.5-point line is too high. I wouldn’t go crazy betting on the Browns because I still like the Cowboys’ chances long-term if they can get healthier, but this should be a close game, with the most likely results being either team winning by exactly a field goal, two outcomes that would both result in a Browns cover.

Dallas Cowboys 30 Cleveland Browns 27

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +4.5

Confidence: Medium

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks: 2020 Week 3 NFL Pick

Dallas Cowboys (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (2-0)

It’s funny how narratives change. In 2018, the Cowboys went 10-6 with a 8-2 record in games decided by 7 points or less and they were seen as a team that was good at closing out games. In 2019, they went just 0-5 in games decided by 7 points or less with largely the same team as 2018, causing them to fall to 8-8 and out of the playoffs, and they were seen as a dysfunctional team that couldn’t close. That seemed to carry into week 1 of this season, when they lost a winnable game by a field goal to the Rams, but then in week 2 they completed a ridiculous 20-point comeback to win a game by 1 point that they statistically had just a 0.1% chance of winning with 2:52 left in the game.

The Cowboys wouldn’t have gotten a chance to come back if the Falcons didn’t seemingly forget the onside kick rule at the end of the game, but they also could have easily won their week 1 game in Los Angeles had they not decided to go for it rather than kick a field goal down three and there were some fluky things that led to the Cowboys needing to come back against the Falcons in the first place, like the Cowboys losing a trio of fumbles. 

The Cowboys lost the turnover battle by 3, but still managed to win the game, something that only happens in about 10.3% of cases of a team with a -3 turnover margin, and they won the first down rate battle by a margin of 10.80% that is much more convincing then their margin on the scoreboard. Combine that with their slight first down rate margin win in week 1 against the Rams and the Cowboys have a +7.25% first down rate differential on the season that ranks 3rd in the league. That’s more or less in line with their +4.28% first down rate differential in 2019 (4th in the NFL), when their poor performance in close games caused them to miss the playoffs.

Ordinarily, that would be a good sign for the Cowboys going forward because a team’s record in close games tends to even out in the long run, but the Cowboys are one of several teams in the league that have been destroyed by injuries early in the season. They are without their dominant offensive tackle duo of Tyron Smith and La’El Collins, pass catching tight end Blake Jarwin, starting linebackers Leighton Vander Esch and Sean Lee, starting cornerbacks Chidobe Awuzie and Anthony Brown, and possibly top defensive lineman DeMarcus Lawrence. 

The Cowboys schedule also gets a lot tougher this week when they head to Seattle. Playing in Seattle isn’t what it once was because of the lack of fans, but this is also arguably the best Seahawks team in years and the Seahawks are relatively healthy compared to the rest of the league. I have the Seahawks 4th in my roster rankings and 6 points ahead of the beat up Cowboys. 

This line shifted from -1.5 on the early line last week to -5 this week, but it arguably didn’t shift up enough, as even with a limited homefield advantage you can definitely make an argument for the Seahawks being favored by more than a touchdown in this one. The Cowboys’ propensity to keep games close is enough for me to not wager on the Seahawks as 5-point favorites, but they may just be too outmatched talent wise in this game with all of the key players they are missing. If DeMarcus Lawrence winds up missing this game and the line doesn’t shift significantly, I may reconsider a bet on Seattle.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Dallas Cowboys 24

Pick against the spread: Seattle -5

Confidence: Low

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys: 2020 Week 2 NFL Pick

Atlanta Falcons (0-1) at Dallas Cowboys (0-1)

Going into the season, I liked the Cowboys’ chances of being a contender, after tough luck in close games in 2019 (0-5 in games decided by 7 points or fewer after going 8-2 in those type of games with roughly the same team in 2018) led to the Cowboys missing the playoffs at 8-8, despite finishing 6th in the league in point differential at +113 and 4th in first down rate differential at +4.28%. However, the Cowboys are having a different kind of tough luck this season, as they’ve been arguably the most injury affected team in the league so far. 

They lost defensive tackle Gerald McCoy for the year before the season even started and right tackle La’El Collins, tight end Blake Jarwin, and linebackers Leighton Vander Esch and Sean Lee are all out for an extended period of time now as well. The Cowboys do get cornerback Jourdan Lewis back after he missed the opener and the Cowboys are counting on the promising young cornerback as a starter in 2020 to replace departed free agent Byron Jones, but they could be without a far more important player than Lewis in this game, left tackle Tyron Smith, who aggravated a previous injury in practice early this week and has not returned since. 

Smith is listed as questionable, suggesting he has a decent chance to play even though he didn’t practice at all Thursday or Friday, but he may be less than 100% and could easily have an in-game setback and have to leave the game. Without him, the Cowboys would be without their top-3 offensive tackles, with normal bookend Collins and swing tackle Cameron Erving both on injured reserve right now. The Falcons also could be without their left tackle though, as Jake Matthews barely practiced this week through injury and is likely in a similar situation as Smith where even if he plays he could be limited or have a setback. Matthews isn’t as big of a name as Smith, but he’d be as big of an absence to the Falcons as Smith would be to the Cowboys.

With Matthews and Smith both being up in the air, it’s hard to be confident in either side on this one, but there are reasons to like Atlanta, especially if Matthews can go and/or Smith can’t. This line was originally at 7 before all of the Cowboys injuries, but, particularly if Smith can’t go, this line didn’t move enough, down to 4.5. With Smith and Matthews factored in as highly questionable, I have the Cowboys just three spots ahead of the Falcons in my roster rankings and the Cowboys won’t have their normal homefield advantage either, with a limited crowd in the stands, giving us a calculated line of just -3 as of right now.

The Falcons are also in a much better spot schedule wise, as the Cowboys have to turn around and go to Seattle next week, while the Falcons get to host the Bears. Underdogs are 76-38 ATS since 2016 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs and all three of those conditions are almost definitely true here. Depending on injury reports and associated line movement, I may end up placing a bet on the Falcons, but for now this is a low confidence pick because of the uncertainty around Matthews and Smith.

Update: Matthews is playing and Smith is not, but this line has dropped all the way to 3, so there’s isn’t enough line value here. I think the single most likely outcome of this game is still the Cowboys winning by 3, so I’d want at least 3.5 for this to be worth a bet. 

Dallas Cowboys 27 Atlanta Falcons 26

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +3

Confidence: Low