Tennessee Titans (6-4) at Indianapolis Colts (3-7)
The Titans were 6.5 point favorites over the Colts on the early line last week, but this line has since moved to a field goal, as a result of Tennessee’s big blowout loss in Pittsburgh last week. I typically love betting against significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play and that’s the case here as well. Tennessee obviously looked terrible last week, but they were on the road on a short week against one of the toughest teams in the league. Marcus Mariota threw a career high 4 interceptions, but he previously has never thrown more than 2 in a game and turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis anyway, so the Titans have a great chance to bounce back this week in a much easier matchup.
The Titans are still a borderline top-10 team in my rankings, while the Colts are one of the worst teams in the league. This line suggests these two teams are about 6 points apart, but I have them about 8.5-9 points apart, so I have this line calculated at -6, close to the early line last week. About 30% of games are decided by 3-6 points, so we’re getting significant line value with the Titans as mere 3 point favorites. At 3, this is my Pick of the Week. This line is at -3.5 in some places, but you can at least get -3 with extra juice everywhere. This could be a field goal game, so I would pay a little extra for the field goal protection if I had to.
Tennessee Titans 26 Indianapolis Colts 20
Pick against the spread: Tennessee -3
Confidence: Pick of the Week