Titans

Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (11-4) at Tennessee Titans (7-8)

The Titans have collapsed in recent weeks, losing five straight after a 7-3 start. That’s not all that surprising though, as the Titans’ wins were never that impressive. None of the Titans’ wins came against teams that currently have a winning record and almost all came by slim margins of victory. Only two of the Titans’ wins have come by more than a touchdown and neither win was as impressive as that suggests, as they needed a defensive touchdown to push the margin to 9 against the Colts, while their 10-point win over the Packers came against a team in a terrible spot, playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 2-22 ATS all-time. Meanwhile, the Titans’ seven losses have come by a combined 89 points, leading to an underwhelming -43 point differential, and they rank just 24th in DVOA.

Making matters worse, the Titans have been among the most injury plagued teams in the league, missing several starters on both sides of the ball in recent weeks, and this week is the most short-handed they’ve been, as they are resting anyone who has any sort of injury in what is actually a meaningless game for the Titans, whose playoff chances are not affected at all by the outcome of this game, with a wild card spot out of reach and the division to be decided by the Titans’ matchup with the Jaguars next week.

In total, the Titans will be missing starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, four starters on the offensive line, Taylor Lewan, Ben Jones, Nate Davis, and Nicholas Petit-Frere, feature back Derrick Henry, stud interior defender Jeffery Simmons, their top-3 edge defenders Denico Autry, Bud Dupree, and Harold Landry, starting linebackers Zach Cunningham and David Long, expected starting cornerbacks Caleb Farley and Kristian Fulton, and talented safety Amani Hooker, giving them a SIC score of 53.4 which will almost definitely be the lowest in the league this week. 

The relatively healthy Cowboys, on the other hand, are at 86.4 and enter this game 4th in DVOA, so this is a big mismatch. The oddsmakers have pushed this line all the time to favoring Dallas by 12.5 as a result of the Titans’ injuries though, so we’re not getting any line value with the Cowboys. However, I still am going to take the Cowboys for pick ‘em purposes because the Titans’ players who do play may be less motivated than they otherwise would be in a game that doesn’t matter and that the coaching staff is treating like it doesn’t matter, resting players who would otherwise play. There’s not nearly enough here for the Cowboys to be worth betting, but they should be the better side against the spread this week.

Dallas Cowboys 23 Tennessee Titans 10

Pick against the spread: Dallas -12.5

Confidence: None

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (1-12-1) at Tennessee Titans (7-7)

The Titans started the season 7-3, but have since fallen back to earth with four straight losses, leaving them in a battle for a playoff spot, even in the weakest division in the AFC. That’s not all that surprising though, as the Titans’ wins were never that impressive. Their only win against a team that is 6-8 or better right now came against the Commanders, who are 7-6-1 now, but were just 1-4 when they were starting Carson Wentz against the Titans. On top of that, all of the Titans’ wins have been close, with several that could have gone either way. 

Only two of the Titans’ wins have come by more than a touchdown and neither win was as impressive as that suggests, as they needed a defensive touchdown to push the margin to 9 against the Colts, while their 10-point win over the Packers came against a team in a terrible spot, playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 2-22 ATS all-time. Meanwhile, the Titans’ seven losses have come by a combined 84 points, leading to an underwhelming -38 point differential, despite a below average schedule. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Titans are even worse, ranking 30th at -6.25.

The Titans are also extremely banged up, which has been a problem for them for most of the season, but things have gone from bad to worse recently. Already without talented left tackle Taylor Lewan for the season, the Titans will also be missing their other two best offensive linemen, center Ben Jones and right guard Nate Davis, this week, while quarterback Ryan Tannehill is out after reaggravating an ankle injury that cost him two games earlier this season, forcing raw rookie backup Malik Willis into action, after he struggled mightily to move the ball through the air in his previous stint as the starter. 

The Titans’ defense will get back top edge defender Denico Autry, starting safety Amani Hooker, and possibly every down linebacker Zach Cunningham this week, but they remain without four expected week one starters, edge defender Harold Landry, linebacker David Long, and cornerbacks Kristian Fulton and Elijah Molden. Their defense isn’t in horrible shape, but their offense looks like one of the weaker in the league with a backup quarterback throwing to an underwhelming receiving corps with basically all of his capable offensive linemen injured.

Luckily, the Titans are facing the Texans, who have the worst record in the league at 1-12-1, but the Texans have been more competitive than that suggests. If you exclude games started by horrendous backup Kyle Allen, the Texans have just three losses by more than 10 points and four losses by more than one-score this season, so they’ve been competitive most of their games, as long as Allen isn’t the starter. They still rank dead last in schedule adjusted efficiency, but not by a wide margin and they’re only a half-point behind the Titans in that metric.

The Texans are also going in the opposite direction injury wise, getting talented edge defender Jonathan Greenard back from a 9-game absence last week and getting top cornerback Steven Nelson and top wide receiver Brandin Cooks back this week, from absences of 2 games and 4 games respectively. With the Titans missing a significant amount of talent and starting an unproven backup quarterback, the Texans actually have a half point edge over them in my roster rankings.

Unfortunately, we’re not getting great line value with the Texans, as this line has dropped all the way down to three in the wake of all of the Titans’ injuries, most notably Tannehill’s absence. However, we are still getting some line value, as I would consider these two teams about even and the Titans are also in a tough spot, having to play a much tougher game on short rest next week on Thursday Night Football, a spot in which favorites cover at just a 43.2% rate. 

The bad spot the Titans are in may be somewhat offset by the Titans having to play with a backup quarterback, which usually makes a team more focused, but it’s also very possible the Titans overlook their 1-win opponent this week, which could easily result in the Texans doubling that win total. Even if they can’t pull the outright upset, I think there’s enough here for the Texans to be worth betting at this number.

Tennessee Titans 17 Houston Texans 16

Pick against the spread: Houston +3

Confidence: Medium

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (7-6) at Los Angeles Chargers (7-6)

Both of these teams are 7-6, but neither has played as well as their record suggests, with the Titans seven wins coming by an average of 6.6 points per game and the Chargers’ coming by 4.3 points per game, as opposed to defeats of victory of 13.5 points per game and 10.1 points per game in their six losses respectively. Despite their similarities, the Chargers are still the significantly better team though, for a few reasons. For one, they have played a tougher schedule, while the Titans’ only win against a winning team came against the 7-5-1 Commanders, who were 1-4 at the time. 

The Titans have also gotten kind of lucky in their only two multiscore wins, getting a defensive touchdown to push the margin to 9 against the Colts, while their 10-point win over the Packers came against a team in a terrible spot, playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 2-22 ATS all-time. Despite that, the Chargers still have a slight edge in point differential (-31 vs. -35) and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is even more predictive than point differential, the Chargers have an even bigger edge.

Overall, the Titans rank 29th in schedule adjusted efficiency, while the Chargers rank 25th, not nearly as good as their record suggests, but still 1.5 points better than the Titans. The Chargers are also healthier, though largely by default. Their defense is still missing top cornerback JC Jackson, stud safety Derwin James, and dominant edge defender Joey Bosa, but their offense has gotten back their two talented wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, as well as talented center Corey Linsley, a big boost, even if they are not as good as they were a year ago when stud left tackle Rashawn Slater was healthy.

The Titans, meanwhile, are missing top wide receiver Treylon Burks, starting left tackle Taylor Lewan, their two best edge defenders Denico Autry and Harold Landry, talented starting linebackers Zach Cunningham and David Long, and starting cornerbacks Kristian Fulton and Elijah Molden. This line favors the Chargers by three at home, where they have next to homefield advantage since moving to Los Angeles in 2017, going 18-27 ATS at home, as opposed to 27-17 ATS on the road, so it’s still hard to be confident in the Chargers this week, but they should be the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Los Angeles Chargers 24 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -3

Confidence: None

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) at Tennessee Titans (7-5)

The Titans are 7-5, but their wins haven’t been that impressive. Their only win against a team that is .500 or better right now came against the Commanders, who are 7-5-1 now, but were just 1-4 when they were starting Carson Wentz against the Titans, and all of the Titans’ wins have been close, with several that could have gone either way. Only two of their wins have come by more than a touchdown and neither win was as impressive as that suggests, as they needed a defensive touchdown to push the margin to 9 against the Colts, while their 10-point win over the Packers came against a team in a terrible spot, playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 2-22 ATS all-time. 

Meanwhile, the Titans’ five losses have come by a combined 67 points, leading to them having a -21 point differential, despite a positive turnover margin (+2) and a relatively easy schedule. Turnover margins are not predictive week-to-week, but schedule adjusted efficiency is and it takes into account strength of schedule and, in that metric, the Titans rank just 27th, about 5.5 points below average. Making matters worse, the Titans are very banged up right now, missing top wide receiver Treylon Burks, starting left tackle Taylor Lewan, their two best edge defenders Denico Autry and Harold Landry, talented starting linebackers Zach Cunningham and David Long, and starting cornerbacks Kristian Fulton and Elijah Molden.

As a result, I have the Titans about even in my roster rankings with the Jaguars, whose -14 point differential and 19th ranked schedule adjusted efficiency are both better than the Titans. Despite that, the Titans are favored by 3.5 points in this game, a bigger line than you might think, given that about 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer, with about 1 in 6 being decided by exactly a field goal. The Titans are at home, but I have them just slightly favored to win this game on my calculated line, so we’re getting good enough value with the Jaguars at +3.5 for them to be worth betting.

Tennessee Titans 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (7-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)

The Titans are 7-4, but their wins haven’t been that impressive. Their only win against a team that is .500 or better right now came against the Commanders, who are 7-5 now, but were just 1-4 when they were starting Carson Wentz against the Titans, and all of their wins have been close, with several that could have gone either way. Only two of their wins have come by more than a touchdown and neither win was as impressive as that suggests, as they needed a defensive touchdown to push the margin to 9 against the Colts, while their 10-point win over the Packers came against a team in a terrible spot, playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 2-22 ATS all-time. 

The Eagles are an obvious step up in competition and have much more in common with the four teams that have beaten them than the seven teams they have beaten. The Eagles aren’t as good as their 10-1 record, as they’ve benefitted from a league best +13 turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week, but they also rank 5th in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is predictive week-to-week, so, even if they’ve benefitted from turnovers, it’s hard to argue they’re not at least one of the top few teams in the league. The Titans, meanwhile, rank 28th in schedule adjusted efficiency and, even if they’re not as bad as that suggests, the Eagles should be favored by more than 4.5 points at home against them. My calculated line is Philadelphia -9.5, so we’re getting good line value with the Eagles, enough for a big bet.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -4.5

Confidence: High

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) at Tennessee Titans (7-3)

The Titans have won seven of their last eight games to go to 7-3 on the season, but their wins haven’t been that impressive, as their only win against a team that isn’t sub .500 came against the 6-5 Commanders and none of those wins have come by more than 10 points. Only two of their wins have come by more than a touchdown and neither win was as impressive as that suggests, as they needed a pick six to make the margin of victory bigger against the Colts, while last week’s 10-point win over the Packers came against a team in a terrible spot, playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 2-22 ATS all-time.

The Bengals, meanwhile, have one fewer win than the Titans, but four of them have come by more than 10 points and blowout wins are much more predictive of future winning than close wins. On the flip side, three of the Bengals’ four losses have come by three points or fewer, giving them a point differential of +50, significantly better than the Titans at +8. They’re also getting healthier, getting back stud interior defender DJ Reader last week and likely to get back top wide receiver JaMarr Chase this week.

The Bengals are favored on the road here, but they’re only favored by 2.5 points, which is pretty insignificant, with less than 1 in 10 games decided by 2 points or fewer, as opposed to 1 in 6 games decided by 3 points exactly. My calculated line has the Bengals favored by 4.5 points, so we’re getting significant line value with them. This isn’t a big bet, but in a game in which they basically just need to win to cover, the Bengals are worth at least a small bet this week.

Update: JaMarr Chase is surprisingly not playing. I already locked this bet in, so I can’t change it, but the line has dropped to 1 and I would take the Bengals even without Chase at that number.

Cincinnati Bengals 31 Tennessee Titans 26

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -2.5

Confidence: Medium

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (6-3) at Green Bay Packers (4-6)

In ordinary circumstances, I would like the Packers a lot this week. The Packers are a disappointing 4-6 and their 21st ranked schedule adjusted efficiency suggests they’ve played at about the level their record would suggest, but it hasn’t helped that they’ve only had four games at home, with their other six games, including a neutral site game, played away from Lambeau. The Packers routinely have among the biggest home/road splits in the league, in large part due to Aaron Rodgers’ having a much bigger home/road split in terms of QB rating than the average quarterback, and this year isn’t an exception, as they are 3-1 with a +6 point differential in their true home games, as opposed to 1-5 with a -37 point differential away from Lambeau.

The Packers are just 2-2 ATS at home this year, but that’s largely due to them being overrated to begin the year, which is not the case anymore now that they are 4-6, and if you look at Rodgers’ entire career, the Packers are 48-21 ATS in Lambeau in games that Rodgers starts and finishes, which is very encouraging for their chances of covering the spread against the Titans this week. Putting the Packers at even more of an advantage is the fact that they’re hosting this game on a short week, against a non-divisional opponent who isn’t familiar with them, a very tough situation for a road team, with non-divisional road underdogs covering at just a 37.1% rate all-time on Thursday Night Football.

It might be surprising to see the Packers favored by a full field goal at home over the Titans, considering the Titans are two and a half games better in the standings, but, in addition to the Packers having a huge homefield advantage on a short week, the Titans also haven’t played as well as their record would suggest, with all of their wins coming against teams that are .500 or worse and their average margin of victory being just 6 points per game. That’s despite the fact that the Titans have benefitted from a +3 turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive week-to-week, the Titans rank just 29th, about 3.5 points behind the Packers.

My roster rankings have a smaller gap between these two teams, but the Packers are still clearly the better team in that aspect as well. The Packers are far from healthy, missing two of their most important defensive players, linebacker De’Vondre Campbell and edge defender Rashan Gary, but the Titans aren’t healthy either, missing a pair of starting offensive linemen Taylor Lewan and Ben Jones, a pair of key edge defenders Bud Dupree and Harold Landry, talented starting safety Amani Hooker, and top linebacker Zach Cunningham. Overall, I have the Packers two points better than the Titans which, when combined with their significant homefield advantage, gives us significant line value with the Packers at just -3.

However, there is one significant problem with the Packers this week, which is that they are playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 2-21 ATS all-time. That makes sense, as teams are exhausted after overtime games and understandably find it tough to get up for another game just a few days later. There are a lot of reasons to take the Packers, but playing on a short week after an overtime game makes them unbettable. In fact, I am actually going to take the Titans for pick ‘em purposes, though this is a no confidence pick and I might change to the Packers depending on the final injury report. 

For the Packers, their two starting offensive tackles David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins and their best wide receiver Randall Cobb are all questionable, while stud Titans interior defender Jeffery Simmons is questionable as well. If all of the questionable Packers play and Simmons doesn’t, that would cause me to change my pick, but this is a no confidence pick either way, with both sides having good arguments for and against them. A push is also a strong possibility, given how many games are decided by exactly a field goal.

Green Bay Packers 20 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: None

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (3-5) at Tennessee Titans (5-3)

The Titans have two more wins than the Broncos, so it may be surprising to see them only favored by a field goal at home, but the Titans haven’t been blowing teams out in their victories, with all coming by nine points or fewer and an average margin of victory of 5.8 points per game, and the Titans also enter this game with significant injury problems. Their offense at least gets a boost with quarterback Ryan Tannehill and wide receiver Treylon Burks likely to return from multi-game absences this week, but their defense will be without four of their most important players, interior defender Jeffrey Simmons, edge defender Bud Dupree, linebacker Zach Cunningham, and safety Amani Hooker.

The Titans are also in a tough spot, having to play again four days after this on Thursday Night Football, a spot in which favorites cover at just a 42.5% rate all-time. We’re not getting much line value with the Broncos, who return from their bye without top edge defender Bradley Chubb, who was traded away, leaving them without their top-3 players at the position, with Randy Gregory and Baron Browning out. However, the Broncos are still the slightly better pick for pick ‘em purposes, even if a push is the most likely outcome. At -2.5, I would take the Titans, that’s how close this one is for me.

Tennessee Titans 20 Denver Broncos 17

Pick against the spread: Denver +3

Confidence: None

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (5-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)

Both of these two teams are 5-2, but they have arrived at that point in very different ways. While all five of the Titans’ wins have come by close margins, with no double digit victories, the Chiefs have three double digit victories in their five wins, which tends to be much more predictive than close wins. As a result, the Titans actually have a negative point differential at -6, while the Chiefs rank 3rd at +51. 

The gap between these two teams is even bigger than that suggests too, as the Titans have faced a significantly easier schedule and have benefited more from the turnover margin (+2 vs. 0), which is not predictive week-to-week. In terms of first downs and yards per play, which are much more predictive, the Titans rank 26th in first down rate and 20th in yards per play allowed, leading to them ranking six points below average in overall schedule adjusted efficiency, about 15 points behind the Chiefs (1st in first down rate and 16th in yards per play allowed). 

The Titans are underdogs of 12.5 points in this game in Kansas City, despite their record, and they could get regular starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill back from a one-game absence, after he got some limited practice work in this week, but, even if Tannehill plays, I think we are getting some line value with the Titans, as I have this line calculated at Kansas City -15 in that case. My calculated line would shoot up to Kansas City -18.5 if Tannehill sat, leading to third round rookie Malik Willis making his second career start after an underwhelming debut against the Texans last week. Unless we know Tannehill isn’t playing and the line doesn’t move, I probably won’t bet on this game at such a high number, but the Chiefs should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes either way.

Kansas City Chiefs 31 Tennessee Titans 15

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -12.5

Confidence: Low

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (4-2) at Houston Texans (1-4-1)

The Titans have two key players who are highly questionable after not practicing on Friday, one on each side of the ball, starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill and stud interior defender Jeffrey Simmons. Both players could still play, but I want to lock in a bet on the Texans either way, as they are a good value as field goal home underdogs, especially if one or both of Tannehill and Simmons does not play. The Titans are 4-2, but they’re not blowing teams out, with their only victory by more than a touchdown coming in a game against the Colts in which they had a pick six and, even with that game taken into account, the Titans have a -13 point differential. 

Schedule adjusted efficiency paints an even worse picture, with the Titans ranking 28th, 4.5 points below average, as a result of an offense that ranks 24th in first down rate and a defense that ranks 29th in yards per play allowed. The Texans are one of the worst teams in the league, but the Titans shouldn’t be favored by a field goal on the road against them, especially without Tannehill and Simmons. With Tannehill and Simmons factored in as highly questionable, I have these two teams about 1.5 points apart in my roster rankings, giving us a calculated line that favors the Texans by a point. We would lose some value if Tannehill and Simmons both played, but this line will likely shift in Houston’s favor if one or both are ruled out, so I am locking this bet in now. The money line is a good value as well.

Houston Texans 17 Tennessee Titans 16 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Houston +3

Confidence: Medium