Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1-1)
The Steelers held on for a 3 point win in Tampa Bay last week on Monday Night Football, but they’re still an overrated team, dating back to 2017. Just 5 of their 14 wins over the past 2 seasons have come by more than 7 points, including just 2 since the midpoint of last season, a span of 12 games. They’ve especially struggled since losing linebacker Ryan Shazier to injury, allowing 27.5 points per game in 8 games (2-6 ATS) without one of the better linebackers in the league.
The Steelers do get right guard David DeCastro and right tackle Marcus Gilbert back from 2-game and 1-game absences respectively this week though, and they’re facing another overrated team, the Baltimore Ravens. Over the past 2 seasons, the Ravens have played 8 games against teams quarterbacked by Deshone Kizer (x2), EJ Manuel, Tom Savage, Brett Hundley, Jacoby Brissett, Matt Moore, and Nathan Peterman. They are just 3-8 in their other 11 games, including two losses in Pittsburgh last year. We’re not getting enough line value with the Steelers for them to be worth betting, but they’re the slightly better team.
Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Baltimore Ravens 23
Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -3