Ravens

Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (5-9) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5)

The Falcons are 5-9, but they’ve been impressive on offense this season, ranking 7th in schedule adjusted efficiency, with their defense being their big problem, ranking 29th in schedule adjusted efficiency. Offensive performance tends to be significantly more consistent week-to-week than defensive performance, so teams with strong offensive numbers and poor defensive numbers tend to do better going forward than teams that are the opposite. However, the Falcons made the decision to bench veteran quarterback Marcus Mariota for rookie Desmond Ridder a couple weeks ago, which makes sense to do in the long-term, as they want to evaluate a potential long-term starter, but, in the short-term, it will likely have the effect of hurting their offensive performance, which will further expose their defense. 

The Falcons only lost by three in New Orleans in their first game with Ridder under center last week, but they lost the first down rate battle by 1.69 and the yards per play battle by 1.33%, which are significantly more predictive than the final score. Ridder himself particularly struggled last week, throwing for just 97 yards on 26 attempts (3.73 YPA, as opposed to the 7.40 YPA that Mariota averaged this season), with the Falcons’ running game being the one to keep the team competitive last week (5.92 YPC on 39 carries), which is a concern because passing game performance tends to be significantly more predictive than running game performance. It’s possible Ridder will be better in his second start this week, but their passing game will almost definitely be worse going forward with Ridder under center rather than Mariota, who has since gone on injured reserve with a knee injury.

All that being said, it’s surprising to see the Falcons as underdogs of 6.5 points on the road in Baltimore, facing a Ravens team that is starting backup quarterback Tyler Huntley in place of injured star quarterback Lamar Jackson. Huntley has led the Ravens to just 26 offensive points in about 2.5 games since taking over for Jackson, so it would be hard to take them as big favorites with any sort of confidence. In fact, my calculated line is just Baltimore -5, so we’re actually getting a little bit of line value with the Falcons, even with the underwhelming and unproven Ridder under center. There’s not enough here for the Falcons to be bettable, but they should be the right side in what figures to be a low scoring game between two run-first offenses that have significant passing game problems.

Baltimore Ravens 19 Atlanta Falcons 14

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +6.5

Confidence: Low

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (9-4) at Cleveland Browns (5-8)

Last week, the Ravens played their first full game without injured quarterback Lamar Jackson and I liked their chances to pull the small upset in Pittsburgh without Jackson, as the rest of this team was significantly healthier than earlier in the season, which was being overlooked because of all of the attention being paid to Jackson’s injury. Top receiving threat Mark Andrews, top running back Gus Edwards, stud left tackle Ronnie Stanley, talented defensive lineman Calais Campbell, starting edge defenders Justin Houston and Tyus Bowser, talented safeties Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams, and starting cornerback Marcus Peters have all missed time for the Ravens with injury thus far this season, but all of them played last week and will continue to play this week.

The Ravens did pull the upset in Pittsburgh last week, but they didn’t play as well as I expected, needing a +3 turnover margin to win by two, which is not predictive week-to-week, and losing both the first down rate battle (+9.67%) and yards per play battle (+1.04) by significant amounts, which are much more predictive week-to-week. With that in mind, I am less confident in the Ravens this week in Cleveland, even though they are still relatively healthy around the quarterback. In fact, I am going to take the Browns for pick ‘em purposes at -2.5 because they are at home and they are the slightly better team, so the most likely outcome of this game is the Browns winning by exactly a field goal, which would cover this spread. There’s not nearly enough here to be confident in the Browns though and, if this line was three, I would probably change my pick to the Ravens.

Update: I made some tweaks to my numbers a little bit and I like the Ravens in this game now, especially since the line has moved to +3 in some places. This is still not worth betting, but I like the Ravens a decent amount at +3, with Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson yet to get going since returning from suspension.

Cleveland Browns 24 Baltimore Ravens 23

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +3

Confidence: Low

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (8-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7)

A week ago on the early line, the Ravens were favored by four points, but this line has since shifted all the way to Pittsburgh -2. The reason for that line movement is understandable, as the Ravens will be without franchise quarterback Lamar Jackson due to injury and a 6-point line movement is about right for him being out, but I think the original line at -4 would have been too low if Jackson started, so we’re still getting line value with the Ravens, even without Jackson.

While the Ravens have four losses, they have blown two-score leads in all of them and they lead the NFL in time spent leading. In terms of point differential, the Ravens rank 7th at +49 and in schedule adjusted efficiency they rank 3rd, about 7 points above average. They’re obviously not as good without Jackson, but they are getting healthier in other parts of their roster and they are still a significantly better team than the Steelers, despite this line suggesting they’re about even, favoring the Steelers at home by just a couple points.

Top receiving threat Mark Andrews, top running back Gus Edwards, stud left tackle Ronnie Stanley, talented defensive lineman Calais Campbell, starting edge defenders Justin Houston and Tyus Bowser, talented safeties Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams, and starting cornerback Marcus Peters have all missed time for the Ravens with injury thus far this season, but are expected to play this week and I think the Ravens’ improved health in other parts of their roster has gone overlooked with Jackson out. I would need this line to be a full field goal for the Ravens to be worth betting against the spread, but they’re a good value on the money line at +110, as they should be the ones slightly favored in this game, with backup Tyler Huntley being one of the better backups in the league and having a relatively healthy supporting cast around him. 

Baltimore Ravens 19 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +2

Confidence: Low

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (3-8) at Baltimore Ravens (7-4)

This line is pretty high at Baltimore -9.5, but this is a matchup between one of the best and one of the worst teams in the league and the better team, the Baltimore Ravens, is at home, so this line isn’t nearly high enough in my opinion. The Ravens have four losses, but in all four losses they have blown two-score leads and they lead the NFL in time spent leading. In terms of point differential, the Ravens rank 7th at +48 and in schedule adjusted efficiency they rank 3rd, about 7.5 points above average. They’ve also won by double digits in four of their seven wins, relevant considering this line is 9.5.

The Broncos, meanwhile, rank dead last in schedule adjusted efficiency, 7 points below average and aren’t much better in my roster rankings, where they rank 16 points behind the Ravens. Their defense has been the strength of this team, with an offense and special teams that both rank dead last in schedule adjusted efficiency, but their defense isn’t quite as good now as it was earlier in the season, before losing Randy Gregory to injury and trading Bradley Chubb to the Dolphins. I don’t expect this game to be close at all, with my calculated line at Baltimore -17.5, so I have no problem laying the 9.5 points. In fact, this is my Pick of the Week this week.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Denver Broncos 10

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -9.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (7-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7)

The Ravens have three losses, but all came by four points or fewer and all came after blowing 4th quarter leads, with the Ravens leading the league in percentage of time leading per game. In terms of point differential, the Ravens rank 7th at +49 and in schedule adjusted efficiency they rank 3rd, about seven points above average. Also healthier now than they were earlier in the year, I consider the Ravens among the best teams in the league and a true Super Bowl contender, which isn’t the consensus opinion of them, so I think they’re a little underrated, even at 7-3.

The Jaguars have been competitive in most of their games this season, but all of their losses have come by more than four points, which would have covered this spread. They have a positive point differential at +11 and a positive schedule adjusted efficiency, about a point above average (13th in the NFL), but they are five points below average in my roster rankings, suggesting they’ve overachieved their talent level and could easily regress going forward. The Ravens should be able to win this game with relative ease and my calculated line has them favored by a full touchdown, so they’re worth a bet here at 3.5.

Update: This line has dropped to 3, so I am increasing the confidence of this bet.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -3

Confidence: Medium

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (3-7) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3)

This line is pretty high, favoring the Ravens by 12.5, but I don’t think it’s high enough, as this is a matchup of among the best and among the worst teams in the league, with the better team, the Baltimore Ravens at home. The Ravens have three losses, but all came by four points or fewer and all came after blowing 4th quarter leads, with the Ravens leading the league in percentage of time leading per game. In terms of point differential, the Ravens rank 6th at +39 and in schedule adjusted efficiency they rank 3rd, about 7.5 points above average.

The Ravens have done that despite having several key players miss time with injury and now, coming out of their bye week, they are as healthy as they have been in weeks. Stud tight end Mark Andrews, top running back Gus Edwards, stud left tackle Ronnie Stanley, stud defensive lineman Calais Campbell, starting edge defenders Justin Houston and Tyus Bowser, and starting cornerback Marcus Peters have all missed time with injury thus far this season but have since returned and will play this week, for a Ravens team that ranks almost ten points above average in my roster rankings. They’re also in a good spot coming out of the bye, with Jim Harbaugh being 21-11 ATS with extra time to prepare in his career as Ravens’ head coach.

The Panthers, meanwhile, have played slightly better in recent weeks after a 1-5 start, but they are still just 3-7 and they go back to quarterback Baker Mayfield this week, losing PJ Walker due to injury, a key absence considering he has been their quarterback for their recent slight offensive improvement. Even with slightly better offensive play in recent weeks, the Panthers still rank 31st in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency across the season, about five points below average, leading three of the Panthers’ seven losses coming by 14 points or more and four of seven coming by at least 10 points. 

Carolina’s defense is what has kept them somewhat competitive in some games, ranking 14th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, but they’re not healthy right now, with starting interior defender Matt Ioanndis and starting cornerback Donte Jackson both out this week. They could get starting safety Jeremy Chinn back this week, but, if not, they’ll not only be without him, but they’ll likely be without the two players they have used most in his absence, Myles Hartsfield and Juston Burris, leaving them very thin at safety. 

Even if Chinn does play, he might not be 100% and the Panthers will still be at least four points below average in my roster rankings, fourteen points below the Ravens, giving us some line value with the Ravens as 12.5-point home favorites. This line is too big for the Ravens to be worth a big bet this week, but they are bettable at that number, even with Chinn’s possible return. I want to lock this in now because the line could increase to 13 or higher if Chinn is ruled out before gametime. This is likely to be a blowout victory for the Ravens either way.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Carolina Panthers 10

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -12.5

Confidence: Medium

Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (5-3) at New Orleans Saints (3-5)

The Ravens are 5-3 and they could easily be even better than that, blowing big leads in all three of their losses and ranking 2nd in time leading, only behind the undefeated Eagles. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Ravens rank 3rd, about 7 points above average, and my roster rankings have them around the same, about 7.5 points above average. Despite that, they are only favored by 2.5 points on the road in New Orleans.

The Saints are better than their 3-5 record, having a -1 point differential despite a -9 turnover margin and ranking 14th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about a half point above average, but we’re still getting great line value with the Ravens in a game in which they basically just have to win to cover, with less than 10% of games being decided by two points or fewer. My calculated line has them favored by 4.5, which is a significant difference, given that 1 in 5 games are decided by 3-4 points. That assumes Ravens stud tight end Mark Andrews is going to play, which is not a guarantee right now, but we should know that before gametime. I’m leaving this as a low confidence pick for now, but I will increase this to medium confidence if and when we know Andrews is playing.

Baltimore Ravens 24 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -2.5

Confidence: Low

Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (4-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)

The Buccaneers have lost back-to-back games as big road favorites against last place teams to fall to 3-4 on the season, but they still rank 8th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 2.5 points above average and, even with some key players missing due to injury, they rank even higher than that in my roster rankings, about 3.5 points above average. On top of that, they return home this week on a short week, which puts them at a significant advantage, with non-divisional home favorites covering the spread at a 63.8% rate on Thursday Night Football.

The Buccaneers are only favored by a point, but they arguably deserve to be favored by more, as it’s hard for a team to go on the road on a short week and play an unfamiliar opponent who is comparable to or better than them. This is also a spot where Tom Brady quarterbacked teams tend to be close to an automatic bet, going 59-30 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than three in his career. That’s especially true after a loss, with Tom Brady led teams going 36-12 ATS after a loss as long as they are not favored by more than a touchdown. Brady also hasn’t lost three in a row since 2002, going 9-3 ATS after back-to-back losses. Most of this was from his New England days, but the Buccaneers will definitely be the hungrier and more desperate team, which should give them an advantage.

The Buccaneers are missing some key players, including top safety Antoine Winfield and starting cornerback Carlton Davis, but the Ravens have some key injury absences as well, most notably top safety Marcus Williams and top interior defender Calais Campbell, as well as potentially their top pass catcher Mark Andrews, who is very questionable after not practicing all week. The Ravens are still the better team, ranking 3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency, 6.5 points above average, as well as 7 points above average in my roster rankings, even with their current injuries, but the Buccaneers are at a significant advantage as a desperate team at home in a non-divisional game on a short week, so, in a game in which they basically just have to win to cover, I think they are worth betting. This is a small bet for now, but it would become a bigger play if Andrews didn’t play, unless the line moved significantly to compensate.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -1

Confidence: Medium

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (2-4) at Baltimore Ravens (3-3)

Earlier in the week, the Browns at +6.5 seemed like an intriguing bet in this game, as the Ravens are in a tough spot with a game against the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football on deck, with favorites covering at just a 42.6% rate all-time before Thursday Night Football. However, since earlier this week, the injury news has been in Baltimore’s favor, with the Browns ruling out one of their most important players, stud right guard Wyatt Teller, and the Ravens possibly getting back wide receiver Rashod Bateman and edge defender Justin Houston, a pair of key re-additions. 

It might be unlikely that Bateman and Houston both play, but it’s unlikely at least one of them returns and, with Teller out, if one of those two players plays, my calculated line has the Ravens favored by a touchdown, so we’re not getting any line value with the Browns anymore. I’ll still take the Browns for pick ‘em purposes because the Ravens are getting an insignificant amount of line value and are in a bad spot, but if Bateman and Houston both play, I might flip my pick to Baltimore. That’s how close this one is in my opinion. Either way, this would be a no confidence pick.

Update: Bateman and Houston are both playing, so I am switching to the Ravens, who are healthier than they’ve been for most of the season and are facing a Browns team missing one of their best players in Wyatt Teller.

Baltimore Ravens 31 Cleveland Browns 24

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -6.5

Confidence: None

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at New York Giants (4-1)

The Giants are a surprising 4-1, but they haven’t played as well as that suggests, as they have had one of the easiest schedules in the league and haven’t won any games by more than one score. They got their best win of the season last week against the Packers in London, but, even with that taken into account, the Giants rank just 21st in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 1.5 points below average. That lines up with my roster rankings, which have the Giants 2.5 points below average.

Unfortunately, the public and odds makers seem to still understand that the Giants aren’t as good as their record, with this line favoring the Ravens on the road by 5.5 points. The Ravens are 3-2, but both of their losses came on last second scores and their point differential is tied for 6th best in the NFL. They’re also 5.5 points above average in schedule adjusted efficiency and 6.5 points above average in my roster rankings. There isn’t enough here for me to take them as 5.5 point road favorites with any confidence against a competitive Giants team, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Baltimore Ravens 26 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -5.5

Confidence: None