Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

Atlanta Falcons (1-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2-1)

These two teams are pretty similar. Both have strong offenses, but struggle mightily to stop anyone. The Steelers’ defense took a bit hit when they lost linebacker Ryan Shazier to injury last season, but they were an overrated team even before that. Just 5 of their 14 wins over the past 2 seasons have come by more than 7 points, including just 2 since the midpoint of last season, a span of 13 games. Without Shazier, they’ve allowed an average of 27.33 points per game in 9 games.

The Falcons’ defensive issues are also largely due to injury, as they are missing linebacker Deion Jones and safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen for extended periods of time and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett joins them on the sideline this week, making matters worse. Those are 4 of their best defensive players and they weren’t a great defense even with them. On offense, running back Devonta Freeman returns, but they’re still without guard Andy Levitre, so they’re not at full strength on that side of the ball either.

This line favors the Steelers by 3 at home, suggesting these two teams are about even, so we aren’t getting line value in either direction. The Falcons are in a slightly better spot though. While the Steelers have to turn around and go to Cincinnati next week, the Falcons are at home for the Buccaneers. Underdogs are 80-45 ATS before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. The Steelers could have a little bit of split focus this week with the 3-1 Bengals on deck, while the Falcons should be fully focused and cannot afford to fall to 1-4 in the loaded NFC. I wouldn’t recommend betting it, but the Falcons should be the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 35 Atlanta Falcons 34

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +3

Confidence: Low

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