Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

Los Angeles Rams (4-0) at Seattle Seahawks (2-2)

Through 4 games, the Rams have been the undisputed top team in football. Not only do they rank first in first down rate differential, their +15.50% mark blows away 2nd place +8.37%. In addition to having the best first down rate in the league at a ridiculous 47.24%, the Rams also have the 5th best first down rate allowed in the league at 31.74%. They are one of two 4-0 teams, with an average margin of victory of 18.25 points per game. They may not be quite this dominant for the whole season and their schedule does get harder, but they are the clear team to beat after the first month of the season.

Fortunately or the Rams, their schedule does not get much harder this week. At one point, going to Seattle to face the Seahawks would have been a daunting task. The Seahawks are 44-10 (33-21 ATS) at home in the Russell Wilson era. They are not that dominant team anymore though. A roster already thinned by retirements and off-season losses got even thinner last week when they lost All-Pro safety Earl Thomas for the season. They also remain without talented every down linebacker KJ Wright, who has yet to make his season debut due to a knee injury. They rank 29th in first down rate at -4.29% and could easily be 1-3 if the Cardinals had made a pair of makeable field goals last week. 

The Seahawks have been especially good as home underdogs in the Russell Wilson era, going 4-0 ATS with 4 straight up wins by an average of 9.25 points per game, and this 7 point line is the most the Seahawks have been home underdogs by in Wilson’s entire career, but this line is totally justifiable, given the talent gap between these two teams. If anything, we’re still getting some line value with the Rams. I can’t take them with any confidence because this game could be Seattle’s Super Bowl, but I do expect the Rams to keep rolling this week.

Los Angeles Rams 28 Seattle Seahawks 20

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -7

Confidence: None

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