New York Giants (5-9) at Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
The Colts are a solid 8-6, but they’re even better than their record suggests. They had major injury problems earlier in the year, leading to a 1-5 start, but they’ve won 7 of 8 games since then, with 4 wins by at least two touchdowns. On the season, they rank 7th in point differential at +72 and 5th in first down rate differential at +3.95%. They’ve faced one of the easier schedules in the league, but they’re arguably even better than those numbers suggest, given how well they’ve played when healthy. With talented center Ryan Kelly returning last week, the Colts are as healthy as they’ve been all season, which should be a scary proposition for the rest of the AFC, with the Colts in the running for the final wild card spot.
The Giants also improved as the season went on, but they have a serious injury on both sides of the ball now, with #1 wide receiver Odell Beckham and Pro-Bowl safety Landon Collins on the sidelines. They blew out the Redskins without them, but I think that was more about the Redskins not giving effort with a hapless street free agent quarterback under center than anything to do with the Giants and the Giants followed that game up by getting shut out at home by the Titans in a 17-0 loss. I expect their struggles to continue this week and for the Colts to take care of business and win this easily. This line shifted from Indianapolis -6 to Indianapolis -9 in the past week, but I have this line calculated at Indianapolis -13, so we’re still getting significant line value with the Colts.
Indianapolis Colts 27 New York Giants 13
Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -9