Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2018 Week 6 NFL Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) at New York Giants (1-4)

Last week, the Eagles were my Pick of the Week as 3-point home favorites against the Vikings. They lost by 2, but easily could have won. They had 2 more first downs and one more offensive touchdown than the Vikings on 6 fewer plays, a +9.03% first down rate differential, but lost because of a long defensive touchdown, a goal line fumble, and a bad roughing the passer call. As a result of that loss, the Eagles remain underrated.

Their record isn’t pretty, but they’re still a very talented group and they’re not exactly getting blown out, with their 3 losses coming by a combined 11 points. It’s not a stretch to say they could easily be 4-1 and if that were the case no one would have any concerns about them, especially with Carson Wentz continuing to round into form. The Eagles have also won the first down rate battle in 2 of those losses and have a +3.88% first down rate differential on the year, 7th in the NFL.

After briefly opening at -2.5, this line moved back to -3 in favor of the Eagles, as it was on the early line last week. Despite the lack of line movement, we are still getting good line value with the Eagles. I have this line calculated at -5.5, as the Giants are a mediocre opponent. Despite their record, the Eagles are at least comparable to the Jaguars and Saints, who have both already covered as road favorites in New York against the Giants. The Eagles should do so as well. This isn’t as big of a play as last week, but I will make this a bigger play if the line moves back down to -2.5. In some books, it’s available at -2.5 with higher juice.

Thursday Update: Lane Johnson was surprisingly added to the injury report Thursday morning with an ankle injury and is not expected to play tonight. That knocks my calculated line down to -4, but the line also dropped from 3 to 2 to compensate for Johnson’s absence, so this remains a medium confidence bet. The difference between 2 and 4 might not seem big at first, but only 4% of games are decided by 2 points or fewer, as opposed to 24% of games decided by 4 points or fewer. The Eagles should be able to win this one without Johnson and as mere 2-point favorites that’s basically all they need to do to cover.

Final Update: Johnson is surprisingly active for this one. The line has stayed put at 2 despite that, but I’m hesitant to raise my bet because I’m not sure if Johnson can make it through the whole game.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 New York Giants 19

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -2

Confidence: Medium

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

New York Giants (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-1)

This was the toughest game of the week for me because I have this line calculated right at -6.5, which is what this line is, and there are no strong situational advantages for either team. The Giants play again in 4 days on Thursday Night Football, but are desperate for a win at 1-3, while the Panthers are coming off of a bye, but there’s no real evidence that teams do better after a bye in recent years. I’m taking the Panthers because I think this game is more likely to be decided by 7 points than 6, but this is my lowest confidence pick of the week.

Carolina Panthers 24 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: Carolina -6.5

Confidence: None

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants: 2018 Week 4 NFL Pick

New Orleans Saints (2-1) at New York Giants (1-2)

A popular Super Bowl pick, the Saints kind of stumbled out of the gate this season, losing to the Buccaneers week 1 and almost losing to the Browns week 2, despite being big home favorites in both games. As a result of that, it seems like people have kind of soured on them, as they are mere 3 point favorites here in New York against a Giants team that is one of the weaker in the NFC. I think that’s an overreaction. They still have one of the most talented rosters in the league and they’ve gotten off to slow starts before hitting their stride in other recent years too, going 2-12 ATS in the first two weeks of the season since 2012, but 51-38 ATS the rest of the season.

The Saints won last week in overtime in Atlanta and now head to New York to take on a Giants team that is pretty banged up right now. Already missing top edge rusher Olivier Vernon for the 4th straight week and starting cornerback Eli Apple for the 2nd straight week, the Giants will also be without starting tight end Evan Engram with an injury this week. I have this line calculated at New Orleans -7, so we’re getting plenty of line value with the Saints at 3. They’re still worth a bet at 3.5, but 3 is available in enough places that you should be able to find it. At 3, the Saints are my Pick of the Week.

New Orleans Saints 31 New York Giants 23

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

New York Giants at Houston Texans: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

New York Giants (0-2) at Houston Texans (0-2)

A trendy pre-season Super Bowl “sleeper”, the Texans have gotten off to a disappointing 0-2 start, but they’ve been better than their record has suggested. Their first loss was in New England and last week they had a +7.27% first down rate differential in a 3-point loss in Tennessee. They had 21 first downs to 15 for the Titans, but they missed a field goal and couldn’t get the ball snapped for another field goal try to tie it at the end of the game, while the Titans scored on a 68 yard fake punt.

The Texans finally return home for their home opener this week, but the history of week 3 home openers is not good, as teams are 26-51 ATS over the past 30 years. The Texans could be tired after starting the season with back-to-back road games. They don’t have a tough opponent, as the New York Giants are a mediocre team at best, especially without edge rusher Olivier Vernon and cornerback Eli Apple, but we’re not getting any line value with the Texans as 6 point home favorites. For pick ‘em pool purposes I would take the Giants, but I would need at least 7.5 points to consider betting the Giants.

Houston Texans 20 New York Giants 16

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +6

Confidence: None

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2018 Week 2 NFL Pick

New York Giants (0-1) at Dallas Cowboys (0-1)

The Cowboys are one of the more shorthanded teams in the league right now. A promising young defense is missing it’s best interior pass rusher David Irving with a suspension and one of it’s most promising young players safety Xavier Woods with injury, while their offense is not nearly the same without All-Pro center Travis Frederick, who remains out indefinitely with a rare illness. Dak Prescott has not shown the ability to play well when he doesn’t have a strong supporting cast and, with the offensive line being a shell of it’s 2016 self and the receiving corps losing both Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, he does not have a strong supporting cast right now and the defense isn’t good enough to compensate.

The Cowboys lost their opener 16-8 in Carolina last week, against an also banged up Carolina team that should have been beatable for the Cowboys, who typically play well on the road. Now the Cowboys return home, but they haven’t had much homefield advantage in recent years. While they’ve done well on the road as a result of a national fanbase, going 36-29 on the road (37-28 ATS) since 2010, they are just 32-34 at home (24-42 ATS) over that same time period.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, they don’t have a tough opponent this week, with the Giants coming to town. Casual bettors seem to think the Giants are much improved this year because of the return of Odell Beckham and the addition of Saquon Barkley, but they still have major problems on the offensive line and at quarterback and their defense is not nearly as good as it was when they made the postseason in 2016, especially with Olivier Vernon out for the start of the season. This line is only 3 points, so the Cowboys should be able to cover, but I wouldn’t recommend betting them.

Dallas Cowboys 26 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas -3

Confidence: Low

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants: 2018 Week 1 NFL Pick

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at New York Giants (0-0)

The Jaguars won 10 games last season and they were even more dominant than that suggests, as they finished 2nd in first down rate differential, 3rd in point differential, and came within a few plays of making the Super Bowl. It helped that they had an easy schedule and relatively few injuries, but they remain healthy for now and open the season with a relatively easy game against the Giants.

At first glance, the Giants look much improved with the addition of Saquon Barkley and the return of Odell Beckham from injury, but they still have major problems on the offensive line and at quarterback and their defense is not nearly as good as it was when they made the postseason in 2016, especially with Olivier Vernon out for the start of the season. The Jaguars should be favored by more than a field goal. Their average margin of victory in 2017 was 20.2 points, so this game could easily not be close.

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 New York Giants 16

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville -3

Confidence: High

New York Giants 2018 NFL Season Preview

Quarterback

The Giants made the post-season in 2016 with a record of 11-5, but this offense still had major concerns and they largely went unaddressed  last off-season. The Giants finished the 2016 season ranked 29th in first down rate and, while their defense allowed the lowest first down rate in the league, they still were not as good as their record suggested, as they had a point differential of just +26 and went 8-3 in games decided by a touchdown or less.

The main reason their offensive issues went unaddressed last off-season is that they had no cap space to work with, after a spending spree on the defense after the 2015 season. That spending spree paid off, as the Giants had a dominant stop unit in 2016, but it left the Giants in a very inflexible cap position. In 2017, the Giants 7 highest cap figures took up a combined 86.521 million, or 52% of the 167 million dollar cap.

Five of those cap figures were defensive players: defensive ends Jason Pierre-Paul and Olivier Vernon, defensive tackle Damon Harrison, and cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. All five played well in 2016, but that was not the case in 2017 and the defense slipped to 15th in first down rate allowed as a result. Considering how reliant they were on their defense to win games in 2016, that had a major negative impact on the team.

Their offense was also worse in 2017. As bad as they were in 2016, the Giants fell to dead last in first down rate in 2017, only picking up first downs at a 28.67% rate. None of the Giants’ offensive issues from the previous season improved and things went from bad to worse when they lost All-Pro wide receiver Odell Beckham with a broken ankle week 5. Before the break, Beckham was already at less than 100% with an ankle injury he suffered in the pre-season. He missed the first game of the season and, though his production in 4 games extrapolates to a 100/1208/12 slash line over 16 games, he did not look nearly as explosive as normal when on the field.

Despite never being at 100%, Beckham was missed immensely when he went down for the year. In the 4 games he played, the Giants picked up first downs at a respectable 33.21% rate, which would have ranked 19th in the NFL last season and would have been a noticeable improvement from 2016. In the 12 games he didn’t play, the Giants picked up first downs at a pathetic 27.13% rate and fell to dead last overall on the season. Their defense was disappointing, but their stagnant offense was the reason they ranked 30th in first down rate differential at -5.08% and finished with a 3-13 record, a year after making the post-season.

Quarterback Eli Manning’s numbers took a big hit without Beckham as well. Manning completed 65.9% of his passes for an average of 6.82 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in 4 games with Beckham, but just 60.0% of his passes for an average of 5.77 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions in his other 12 games. Overall on the season, he had a QB rating of 80.4, his 2nd worst in the past 10 seasons and just 26th in the NFL out of 32 eligible quarterbacks.

Manning hasn’t been the same quarterback in years though. He was just exposed more than normal last season without his best weapon. Manning has earned a negative grade from Pro Football Focus in 5 straight seasons, finishing 31st among 36 eligible quarterbacks in 2016 and 34th among 40 eligible quarterbacks in 2017. Over those 5 seasons, he’s completed just 61.7% of his passes for an average of 6.86 YPA, 128 touchdowns, and 84 interceptions, a QB rating of just 84.7, which ranks 29th over that time period out of 33 quarterbacks with 1000+ passing attempts. Now going into his age 37 season, Manning is unlikely to get better going forward.

Manning was actually briefly benched for Geno Smith last season, a bizarre decision that probably got head coach Ben McAdoo fired. I understand wanting to give other quarterbacks a look in a lost season, but Smith is a tried and failed starter who was going to be a free agent at the end of the season, so there wasn’t much point in giving him a try. Perhaps even more bizarre is the fact that the Giants went immediately back to Manning after just one start and started him for the rest of the season, never giving 3rd round rookie Davis Webb a shot. Unlike Smith, Webb has developmental potential and is under contract inexpensively for another 3 seasons. Looking at a high pick in a good quarterback draft, it would have made sense to at least see if he could show more in game action than he did in practice.

The Giants ultimately opted against taking a quarterback with their 2nd overall pick and instead took Penn State running back Saquon Barkley, who most considered the top overall prospect in the draft and one of the top running back prospects of the past 15 years. It’s an understandable move from the Giants’ perspective. They made the post-season 2 seasons ago. They’ve seen the Cowboys and Jaguars use high picks on running backs in the past two drafts and make it to the post-season. Barkley might not make the most long-term sense, considering career length and injury proneness of running backs, but for a team that believes they’re in win now mode, it’s an understandable decision.

However, this was a deep running back draft and a talented young quarterback on a cheap rookie deal is the most valuable asset in the NFL. With Manning owed 33 million over the next 2 seasons, he is basically the opposite of that. The Giants had their choice of 3 quarterbacks who would eventually go in the top-10, including eventual 3rd overall pick Sam Darnold. They could have taken one, sat him behind Manning for a year, and then moved on from Manning next off-season, saving 17 million in the process, which could have been used to address other needs.

The Giants aren’t quite as top heavy cap wise as last season, but their top 6 cap figures combine for 80 million, which is about 45.1% of this season’s 177.2 million dollar cap. Justin Pugh, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are no longer with the team, but the Giants added left tackle Nate Solder on a 4-year, 62 million dollar deal this off-season and Odell Beckham is now making 8.459 million in the final year of his rookie deal.

With Beckham due an extension worth upwards of 17+ million annually (the current highest annual salary for a wide receiver), the Giants would really benefit from being able to get out from Manning’s contract at some point soon. Instead, the Giants look locked into Manning for at least one, probably two more seasons at least. On top of that, because of the relatively low salaries of the highest paid running backs, the Giants are also locked into a rookie deal with Saquon Barkley that makes him the 4th highest paid running back in the NFL in average annual salary, before he even takes a snap.

They Giants used a 4th round pick on Richmond’s Kyle Lauletta, but he’s a developmental prospect at best. Considering Davis Webb couldn’t even get on the field last year, he doesn’t seem particularly close to being a reliable starting option either. Manning’s numbers should be better in 2018 with Beckham healthy, but this wasn’t even a good offense with Beckham healthy in 2016 and now Manning is two years older. The Giants may regret not taking their quarterback of the future when they had the chance.

Grade: C

Running Backs

The Giants are hoping that plugging in Saquon Barkley at running back will give this offense the big boost they need. Even assuming Barkley definitely pans out and ignoring the history of running back busts in the top-10, he alone can’t make this an above average offense. Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette have made the post-season as top-5 pick rookies in each of the past two seasons, but Elliott joined a Dallas team with a great offensive line and he played a talented rookie quarterback, while Fournette actually struggled down the stretch with injuries for the Jaguars and was not the primary reason why they made the post-season, as they were led by a dominant stop unit.

Barkley will definitely give a boost to their running game though and the Giants need one badly, as they haven’t averaged more than 4 yards per carry since the 2012 season. Barkley is a freak athlete who runs a 4.40 40 at 6-0 233. He has incredible college tape and not just as a runner, as he’s a very refined pass catcher and pass protector for a rookie and could immediately push for 50 catches in an every down role. They’ll make him earn his playing time, but it would be a surprise if he wasn’t an every down player for them down the stretch. He could easily surpass 300 touches as a rookie.

The Giants also added Jonathan Stewart this off-season on a 2-year, 6.8 million dollar deal. That deal didn’t make any sense at the time and it made even less sense after they used the 2nd overall pick on Barkley. Once a solid runner, Stewart has averaged just 3.62 YPC over the past 2 seasons with the Panthers and is now going into his age 31 season. He’s also not much use on passing downs, with 162 catches in 131 career games, so the Giants are paying a significantly salary for a running back who will purely be an early down backup and who hasn’t been good in years. He was Pro Football Focus’ 54th ranked running back out of 60 eligible last season.

Stewart will compete for the #2 running back job with 2nd year back Wayne Gallman, who actually flashed on 111 carries as a rookie, averaging 4.29 yards per carry. With young, fresh legs Gallman is undoubtedly the better option of the two, but GM Dave Gettleman seems to have fond memories of Stewart from their time together with the Panthers and his salary suggests he’ll see more carries than Gallman. Gallman is also not much use on passing downs (4.02 yards per target on 48 targets as a rookie), so Barkley will handle the vast majority of passing downs, with Gallman and Stewart spelling him on early downs. After averaging 603 pass attempts over the past 2 seasons, the Giants will probably try to hide Manning with their running game a lot more in 2018.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

One fix for their cap woes that the Giants reportedly entertained this off-season was trading Odell Beckham, although no team came close to offering them their reportedly asking price of two first round picks. A top-13 wide receiver on Pro Football Focus in each of his first 3 seasons in the league before the lost year due to injury in 2017, Beckham is only going into his age 26 season and, even with the uncertainty coming off of the ankle injury, he’s worth paying around the highest paid wide receiver in the league, currently Antonio Brown at 17 million annually.

The problem is Beckham reportedly wants to reset the non-quarterback market and make upwards of 20 million annually on his next deal, a number the Giants have shown no interest in offering him. Not only do they have major cap problems, but they’re also transitioning to more of a run heavy offense and don’t want to be locked into paying a wide receiver that kind of money if his production is going to be reduced on a team that isn’t throwing 600+ times per season anymore.

If no deal is reached by the start of free agency next off-season, the Giants will undoubtedly franchise tag him, but Beckham has been putting pressure on the front office since last off-season for a new deal and has not softened his tone following his injury, so he could hold out next off-season if franchise tagged and force the Giants to trade him. Beckham made some noise about a holdout earlier this off-season, but he reported for minicamp and told reporters he would report to training camp as well, but next off-season might be a different story. For now, his return will be a big boost to a passing game that lacked life without him last season.

The Giants also lost veteran wide receiver Brandon Marshall for the season at the same time they lost Beckham last season, but Marshall did very little through 5 games and was not really missed. Owed 5.5 million non-guaranteed in his age 34 season in 2018, he was an easy cap casualty decision this off-season. Slot receiver Sterling Shepard also got hurt at the same time, though he eventually returned to play another 6 games down the stretch.

Despite only playing 11 games, Shepard caught 59 passes for a team leading 731 yards and he was also their only wide receiver to earn a positive from PFF. He might not have the same production in 2018 though, even if he plays all 16 games. While he averaged 9.0 targets per game in 7 games without Beckham, that number dropped to 5.3 in 4 games with him. With Beckham returning from injury and more of an emphasis on the run, Shepard might not get enough targets to have a big statistical year.

Shepard will also play more on the outside this season. He played 89.7% of the snaps in the 11 games he played last season, so he was almost an every down player, but he ran just 71 of his 439 routes from the outside, as the Giants threw almost exclusively out of 3 wide receiver sets. With the Giants going more run heavy in 2018, they are likely to use fewer 3 wide receiver sets, which means Shepard will have to see more playing time outside, even in passing situations.

While he averaged 1.74 yards per route run on the slot last season, he averaged just 1.38 yards per route run on the outside and that’s a trend that dates back to his rookie year, when he averaged just 0.55 yards per route run on the outside. A 2016 2nd round pick, Shepard should be a dangerous slot weapon in his 3rd season in the league, but he’s undersized at 5-10 194 and the Giants may continue struggling to get the ball to him on the outside.

Rookie tight end Evan Engram also had a productive year in Beckham’s absence, catching 64 passes for 722 yards and 6 touchdowns, actually the 3rd most receiving yards by a rookie tight end since the switch to a 16 game season in 1978. He wasn’t as good as his numbers suggested though, as those numbers came on 115 targets. Quarterbacks had just a 77.5 QB rating when targeting him and he dropped 11 passes on the season, most in the NFL among tight ends. He actually had a negative pass catching grade overall from PFF and, thanks to his awful run blocking, he finished as PFF’s 71st ranked tight end overall out of 72 eligible.

That being said, he flashed his obvious athleticism and if he can keep developing and become surer handed he can develop into one of the best pass catching tight ends in the league. The 6-3 240 pounder will likely never be a good blocker, but he can be a matchup nightmare in the passing game. However, with Beckham coming back and more of an emphasis on the running game, I wouldn’t be surprised if he failed to match last season’s production, even if he actually becomes a more effective player on a per target or per route run basis. He won’t see 115 targets again.

Engram has the athleticism to move all around the formation, which they did with him last season, when he ran 136 of his 526 routes on the slot and another 69 routes split out wide. They figure to continue doing that in 2018. With Marshall not coming back, free agent acquisition Cody Latimer is penciled in as the 3rd receiver, playing outside opposite Beckham when Shepard moves to the slot, but Engram could see time outside in those situations as well and the Giants also have Roger Lewis in the mix for snaps.

Regardless of whether Lewis or Latimer wins the #3 receiver job, it figures to be a position of weakness. Lewis actually led all Giants wide receivers with 693 snaps last season, given all of the players who missed time, but he did not play well, managing just a 36/416/2 slash line on 72 targets and finishing 111th among 118 eligible wide receivers on PFF in the first significant action of the 2016 undrafted free agent’s career. He likely won’t be better in 2018.

Latimer, on the other hand, is a 2014 2nd round pick, but he’s actually less experienced than Lewis, playing just 826 snaps in 4 seasons in the league. Half of his career 35 catches came last season, when he caught 19 passes for 283 yards and 2 touchdowns on a career high 380 snaps, earning the first positive grade of his career for a season. Only going into his age 26 season, he still has some upside and the Giants are taking a chance that he’ll be better on his 2nd contract, giving him a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal in free agency, but he’s a projection to a larger role and likely won’t see many targets behind Beckham, Shepard, Engram, and Barkley on a run heavy team.

Run blocking tight end Rhett Ellison will also be in the mix for a role. A hybrid who also sees snaps at full back, Ellison played 538 snaps last season and will likely see a similar role, if not a bigger one on a team that will run the ball more in 2018. Ellison has never topped 24 passes in a season and that largely came out of desperation last season on a team with few options in the passing game, but he’s consistently one of the best run blocking tight ends in the league. He’s earned a positive run blocking grade from PFF in all 6 seasons in the league and finished last season 9th among tight ends on PFF in run blocking grade. He won’t see as many balls go his way on a much deeper receiving corps this season, but he’ll still be an important part of this team, given how much they want to run the football.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

Even with good skill position talent around Manning, the Giants’ offense could be derailed by poor offensive line play again. The Giants have had offensive line problems for years, but they were even worse upfront last season, with their top two offensive linemen Justin Pugh and Weston Richburg missing most of the season with injury. Rather than re-sign Pugh and/or Richburg this off-season as free agents, they let them take deals worth 45.025 million over 5 years from the Cardinals and 47.5 million over 5 years from the 49ers respectively, and then they used pretty much all of their available cap space to sign ex-Patriots left tackle Nate Solder to a deal worth 62 million over 4 years.

Solder undoubtedly plays a more valuable position than Pugh or Richburg, neither of whom are left tackles, but the Giants are still paying him more than any other offensive linemen in the league in average annual salary. That may change in a few months, with players like Jake Matthews and Taylor Lewan going into the final year of their rookie deals in 2018, but Solder will remain one of the highest paid offensive linemen in the league throughout the duration of his contract, even though he’s never been an elite left tackle and now is going into his age 30 season.

A 7-year veteran, Solder’s best seasons have come in 2012, 2013, and 2016, when he’s finished 18th, 15th, and 12th respectively among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus, but in his other 4 seasons he’s been about average and he’s dealt with several injuries in recent years. He made all 16 starts last season, but only finished 35th among offensive tackles on PFF and is now going into the later stages of his career. He fills a huge need for the Giants and this was not a good off-season to need left tackle help, but he was an irresponsible overpay for a team that already had major salary cap problems and that had needs at several other positions.

Solder will move incumbent left tackle Ereck Flowers over to the right side. Selected 9th overall in the 2015 NFL Draft, Flowers has been overmatched at left tackle in 3 seasons in the league and the Giants are finally giving up on him at that position. He made 46 of 48 starts in 3 seasons at left tackle, but has finished in the bottom-20 among offensive tackles on PFF in all 3 seasons. When the Giants signed Solder, they said Flowers would have to compete for the job at right tackle, though it’s unclear who he’ll be competing with, as the Giants did not add any viable competition for him this off-season.

Chad Wheeler is the only player who started at right tackle for them last season that was brought back this off-season and the 2017 undrafted free agent struggled in 5 starts as a rookie. None of their other offensive tackles have any NFL experience. Only going into his age 24 season, Flowers still has upside and could be better at his new position. I would expect him to be able to beat out Wheeler, although their long-term plan is still unclear, after declining Flowers’ 12.525 million dollar option for 2019 this off-season. They reportedly tried trading him during the draft, despite not taking a single offensive tackle all weekend, and this could easily be his final year with the Giants even if he is better on the right side.

While they didn’t draft an offensive tackle, did take a guard, using the 34th overall pick at the top of the 2nd round on UTEP guard Will Hernandez. A massive run blocker who was expected by many to go in the first round, Hernandez is a plug and play starter for the Giants at a position of need. He’ll compete with veterans John Jerry and Patrick Omameh for one of the two starting guard jobs and it would be a surprise if he wasn’t a starter at one of the two spots week 1.

John Jerry made all 16 starts last season, making starts at both guard spots, and he was arguably their best offensive lineman, although that isn’t saying much. He finished slightly above average on PFF and has 101 starts in his career, but he’s also going into his age 32 season and has finished below average on PFF in 6 of 8 seasons in the league. He’s not a terrible starting option, but he’s not a reliable option either.

With Omameh coming in on a 3-year, 15 million dollar deal, Jerry is not a lock to remain a starter and would likely be cut loose if he can win a starting job, owed 2 million non-guaranteed. Omameh is experienced too, with 45 starts the past 4 seasons, and he’s younger than Jerry, going into his age 29 season, but he’s been pretty mediocre in his career and finished last season 45th out of 80 eligible guards with the Jaguars. He’s unlikely to be an upgrade over Jerry.

At center, Brett Jones, who made the final 12 starts in place of an injured Weston Richburg last season, will compete with Jon Halapio, a converted guard who the Giants have been impressed with at his new position this off-season. Jones wasn’t bad last season, finishing as PFF’s 17th ranked center, but the 2013 undrafted free agent had just 82 career snaps going into 2017, so he’s a one-year wonder at best. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued playing well though, still only in his age 26 season. Halapio, meanwhile, was a 6th round pick in 2014 and struggled on 403 snaps at guard last season in the first significant action of his career. Even if the off-season reviews of his move to center have been positive, Jones is probably the better option. This is an improved offensive line by default, but they still have major issues.

Grade: C

Defensive Line

In 2016, this defense was so dominant because they got incredible seasons from 6 players: defensive tackle Damon Harrison, defensive ends Jason Pierre-Paul and Olivier Vernon, cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and safety Landon Collins. Harrison finished 4th among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus, Pierre-Paul and Vernon finished 5th and 4th respectively among 4-3 defensive ends, Jenkins and Rodgers-Cromartie finished 7th and 4th respectively among cornerbacks, and Collins finished 2nd among safeties.

Of those 6, only Harrison had the same kind of season in 2017, actually moving up to 3rd among defensive tackles on PFF. The Giants made some major changes on defense this off-season, cutting Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and trading Jason Pierre-Paul to the Buccaneers for a 3rd round pick in a pair of moves that saved them 18 million in cash for 2018. The Giants will also transition to a 3-4 defense, as new head coach Pat Shurmur brings ex-Cardinals defensive coordinator James Bettcher with him. Bettcher has done a great job with the Cardinals’ defense in the past 3 seasons, but was left without a job when Bruce Arians retired this off-season.

Regardless of the scheme, Damon Harrison will continue to anchor their run defense in base packages. The 6-4 345 pounder isn’t a great pass rusher, with 5.5 sacks and 10 quarterback hits in 5 seasons as a starter, but he’s finished in the top-4 among defensive tackles in run stop grade in all 5 of those seasons, including 3 seasons finishing #1 overall in that metric, and he’s capable enough as a pass rusher to stay in for some sub packages, playing about 60% of the snaps over the past 2 seasons, despite his size. Now in a 3-4 defense that he fits like a glove, he should continue playing a similar role. He may begin to decline soon, in his age 30 season, but he should remain a dominant run player for at least another couple seasons. Of all their free agent signings two off-seasons ago, he was their best, coming over from the Jets on a 5-year, 46.25 million dollar deal.

Dalvin Tomlinson is also coming off of a strong season as the other starting defensive tackle with Harrison, finishing 14th among defensive tackles on 588 snaps as a 2nd round rookie in 2017, replacing free agent departure Johnathan Hankins. Tomlinson will move to defensive end in base packages in this new defense, but he’s familiar with 3-4 schemes from his time at the University of Alabama, so he should have another strong season in the new defense. He’s a promising young defensive linemen, but, like Harrison, he isn’t much of a pass rusher. While he ranked 9th among defensive tackles in run stopping grade, he had just 1 sacks, 0 quarterback hits, and 12 hurries on 276 pass rush snaps.

Jay Bromley was their 3rd defensive tackle last season, playing 424 snaps, but he’s no longer with the team, so free agent acquisition Josh Mauro and 3rd round rookie BJ Hill will compete for snaps at the other defensive end spot in base packages. Mauro is familiar with James Bettcher’s system from Arizona and is a capable run stuffer, but he doesn’t get much pass rush either and has never played more than 389 snaps in 4 seasons in the league.

Mauro is also suspended for the first 4 games of the season for performance enhancing drugs, which could give Hill the opportunity to take the job and run with it, but he’s also not much of a pass rusher. The Giants also used a 5th round pick on a defensive lineman, taking Miami’s RJ McIntosh. The 6-5 286 pounder slipped because of his lack of size, but he could prove to be a steal for a Giants team that desperately needs interior pass rushers. He could have an immediate role in sub packages. This will be a strong run stopping defensive line, but don’t expect many sacks unless McIntosh has a breakout rookie season.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Giants only had 27 sacks as a team last season, 3rd fewest in the NFL, and defensive ends Olivier Vernon and Jason Pierre-Paul combined for 15 of those sacks. JPP was underwhelming by his standards in 2017, finishing 33rd among 4-3 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus, but he had 8 sacks, 5 hits, and 40 hurries on 585 pass rush snaps and played solid run defense as well, so they’ll definitely miss him now that he’s in Tampa Bay.

The Giants trading him for a 3rd round pick seems like an odd move for a franchise that otherwise seemed to be in win now mode this off-season, especially since they already paid 22.5 million of the 4-year, 62 million dollar deal they re-signed him to last off-season, but the Giants would not have been able to afford Nate Solder if they kept JPP, so they effectively choose the pass protector over the pass rusher. He also was a questionable fit in their new 3-4 defense.

Olivier Vernon is also on a big contract, signing for 85 million over 5 years as a free agent two off-seasons ago, coming over from the Miami Dolphins. He lived up to the contract in the first year of the deal, finishing 4th among 4-3 defensive ends on PFF, a year after finishing 1st among 4-3 defensive ends with the Dolphins in 2015, but he slipped to 22nd in 2017. All in all, he has 23 sacks and 50 quarterback hits over the past 3 seasons combined, while playing strong run defense, and he’s only going into his age 28 season, so he could easily have another strong season in 2018. He’s never played in a 3-4 defense before, but projects as a good fit and is a talented edge rusher in sub packages, regardless of the scheme.

Without Pierre-Paul, the Giants have a big hole opposite Vernon. They used a 3rd round pick on Georgia’s Lorenzo Carter and also bring in Kareem Martin, who follows James Bettcher and Josh Mauro from Arizona. Those two will compete for playing time and both could easily struggle. Carter enters the league as a raw rookie, while Martin spent the first 4 seasons of his career as a rotational player with the Cardinals, maxing out at 457 snaps in a season and finishing below average on PFF in 3 of 4 seasons. Both are significant downgrades opposite Vernon. 2017 5th round pick Avery Moss, 2014 undrafted free agent Kerry Wynn, and 2016 undrafted free agent Romeo Okwara could also be in the mix for snaps, but all three are bottom of the roster talents that lack a clear position in this new 3-4 defense. None of them should be considered roster locks.

The Giants did make a big money addition at middle linebacker this off-season, trading a 4th and 6th round pick to the Rams for Alec Ogletree. The Rams gave Ogletree a 4-year, 42.75 million dollar extension with an 8 million dollar signing bonus last October, but he proved to be a poor fit in Wade Phillips’ 3-4 defense and probably never should have been given that extension, as he’s never been better than a league average starter in 4 seasons in the league. He finished last season as PFF’s 43rd ranked middle linebacker out of 52 eligible in his first season in a 3-4 defense. Given that, it’s definitely strange that the cap strapped Giants, who run a 3-4 defense, would trade a draft pick to acquire him, despite a 10 million dollar guaranteed salary for 2018.

Only going into his age 27 season, the 2013 first round pick still has upside and he upgrades a position that was a major problem for the Giants last season, but he’s unlikely to be worth his salary. The Giants restructured his deal so his cap number is just 4.75 million this season instead of 10 million, but the Giants now will accumulate 5.25 million in dead cap if they release him after the season and his cap number is now 1.75 million higher in each of the next final 3 seasons of the deal: 11.75 million in 2019, 11.75 million in 2020, and 10.75 million in 2021. For a team that already has cap problems without having locked up Odell Beckham long-term, he may be tough to keep around long-term.

In the short term, he should be an upgrade, as the Giants had arguably the worst linebacking corps in the NFL last season. The Giants also get BJ Goodson back after he was limited to 374 snaps in 7 games by injury last season and he figures to start in the other middle linebacker spot next to Ogletree. The 2016 4th round pick only played 13 snaps as a rookie, but he was supposed to be an every down player last season before the injuries struck and he flashed against the run in limited action, so he should get another crack at the starting job, with the Giants lacking a better option. Outside of Olivier Vernon, this is a pretty underwhelming group and they will miss Jason Pierre-Paul presence as an edge rusher opposite Vernon.

Grade: C+

Secondary

The Giants also got rid of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie this off-season. He was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked cornerback in 2016, but fell to 63rd in 2017 and the Giants did not think he was worth his 6.5 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for his age 32 season in 2018. Janoris Jenkins also disappointed in 2017, finishing 55th among cornerbacks on PFF while missing 7 games with injury, after finishing 7th in the first year of a 5-year, 62.5 million dollar deal in 2016.

He remains with the team though and will get a chance to redeem himself in 2018. The problem is he’s going into his age 30 season and is a one-year wonder in terms of being the top level cornerback he was in 2016, finishing no better than 24th in his other 5 seasons in the league. He has experience, making 81 starts in 84 games over the past 6 seasons, and he may bounce back a little bit, but his best days are probably behind him and I wouldn’t expect him to regain his 2016 form.

With Jenkins missing time, Ross Cockrell played 679 snaps last season, earning a positive grade, but he’s no longer with the team either, signing with the Panthers as a free agent. That leaves Eli Apple locked in as the starter opposite Jenkins, a big leap from where he was towards the end of last season, when he was a healthy scratch and did not get along with the coaching staff and some teammates. The new coaching staff is giving him a fresh start and the 2016 1st round pick certainly has talent and could have a breakout season in his 3rd year in the league in 2018, but he’s been underwhelming thus far in his career and has made just 18 of 32 starts, so he’s not a proven starter.

The Giants also have little depth behind Jenkins and Apple, so much so that Sam Beal, who the Giants just selected in the 3rd round of the supplemental draft, could open the season as the 3rd cornerback if he can learn the playbook in time. Considered a borderline first round pick in 2019 if he had stayed at Western Michigan, Beal decided to leave the team for academic reasons and declare for the supplemental draft, where he could prove to be a steal for the Giants if he pans out. His biggest competition will be William Gay. Gay has had a history of success covering the slot over the years and has made 102 starts in 11 seasons in the league, but he’s now going into his age 33 season and was underwhelming on 264 snaps as the 4th cornerback with the Steelers in 2017. He’ll likely cede snaps to Beal by mid-season. Both players could easily struggle, for different reasons.

Safety Landon Collins also wasn’t as good in 2017 as he was in 2016, falling from 2nd to 7th among safeties, but he still had a strong season and was the Giants best defensive back. A 2nd round pick in 2015, Collins struggled as a rookie, but he’s been one of the top safeties in the league over the past 2 seasons and is still only in his age 24 season. The problem for the Giants is they’ll have to give him a big extension to keep him long-term, as he’s going into the final year of his rookie deal. If the Giants can’t come to an agreement with Odell Beckham, they may turn their focus to Collins so they’ll have the franchise tag available for Beckham next off-season. Collins could also be a franchise tag candidate if Beckham gets extended this year.

Fellow starting safety Darian Thompson finishes off this secondary. A 3rd round pick in 2016, Thompson made all 16 starts in 2017, after being limited to just 88 snaps by injury as a rookie, but he didn’t play all that well, finishing 76th among 89 eligible safeties. It’s possible he could face competition this off-season from Andrew Adams, who earned a positive grade in 13 starts as an undrafted rookie in Thompson’s absence in 2016, but Adams was underwhelming on 275 snaps in 2017 and the Giants still like Thompson’s upside long-term. Now in his 3rd season in the league, he could take a step forward in 2018. Led by Jenkins and Collins, this is a solid secondary, but they have concerns at the other cornerback and safety spots.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Giants should be healthier in 2018 and added Saquon Barkley at the top of the draft, which gives their offense an immediate boost, but don’t expect them to get back to the post-season in the loaded NFC. They have too much ground to climb and still have way too many flaws to be a competitive team in their conference, especially on a defense that basically carried them to the post-season in 2016. If they don’t do well in close games against tough competition, they could easily end up with a top-5 pick again and, even with an average record in close games, they could finish in the basement of the NFC East for the second straight season.  I will have an official prediction later in the off-season.

Final Prediction: The Giants are still one of the weaker teams in the NFC, even with the addition of Barkley and the return of Odell Beckham. They still have issues at quarterback and on the offensive line and their defense could struggle in a transition year, especially if injured edge rusher Olivier Vernon misses extended action with an ankle injury.

Prediction: 4-12 4th in NFC East