Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2019 Week 17 NFL Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (8-7) at New York Giants (4-11)

The Eagles put themselves in the driver’s seat in the NFC East with a win over the Cowboys last week, but they haven’t locked the division up just yet. It would take a loss and a Cowboys win for the Eagles to fall out of first place, but the Cowboys are 11-point favorites at home against a skeleton crew Redskins team this week, so the Eagles definitely can’t count on the Cowboys losing that game, making this game in New York against the Giants a must win for the Eagles.

The Giants are just 4-11, but beating them will be tougher than their record suggests. Turnovers have been a big problem for the Giants, as they rank 3rd worst in the NFL with a -15 turnover margin, but turnover margins are highly unpredictable on a week-to-week basis, so the Giants aren’t necessarily going to lose the turnover battle in this game just because they’ve had trouble with turnovers for most of the season. In terms of first down rate differential, the Giants rank 21st in the NFL at -1.49%, not great, but better than their record suggests.

The Eagles also enter this game at far less than full strength, particularly on offense, where they are missing their top-3 wide receivers, featured tight end Zach Ertz, and stud right tackle Lane Johnson. Given that, this line is too high at Philadelphia -4.5. The Eagles might not necessarily lose this game outright, but I like the Giants’ chances of at least keeping it close. I don’t think the Giants are worth a huge bet, but there’s enough here for the Giants to be bettable this week.

Philadelphia Eagles 19 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +4.5

Confidence: Medium

New York Giants at Washington Redskins: 2019 Week 16 NFL Pick

New York Giants (3-11) at Washington Redskins (3-11)

Both of these teams are 3-11 and have had pretty horrible seasons, but the Giants have been the noticeably better of these two teams, holding a significant edge in point differential -99 to -132, despite the Redskins holding a significant edge in turnover margin +2 to -15. Turnover margins tend to be highly unpredictable on a week-to-week basis, so the Redskins aren’t necessarily going to win the turnover battle this week just because they have the advantage in that metric on the season. In terms of first down rate differential, the Giants have the edge at -2.02% to -6.07%. Unfortunately, we’ve lost a lot of line value with the Giants in the past week, as the Redskins were favored by 3 points on the early line last week, but this line is now even. I have the Giants calculated as 1.5 points, so they should be the right side, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

New York Giants 17 Washington Redskins 16

Pick against the spread: NY Giants PK

Confidence: Low

Miami Dolphins at New York Giants: 2019 Week 15 NFL Pick

Miami Dolphins (3-10) at New York Giants (2-11)

The Dolphins still rank 31st in the NFL in first down rate differential at -6.92%, but that’s skewed by some horrific performances early in the season. Since committing to Ryan Fitzpatrick as their starting quarterback after week 6, the Dolphins rank a somewhat respectable 19th in first down rate differential at -0.76%, led by an offense that ranks 11th in first down rate at 36.17%. Fitzpatrick still doesn’t have much of a supporting cast, especially on defense, which remains one of the worst units in the league, but the Dolphins have been far from the worst team in the league in recent weeks.

The Giants aren’t the worst league in the league either, but they’re a lot closer to it, ranking 25th in first down rate differential on the season and 26th since week 7 at -3.38%. They’re playing hard with backup quarterback Eli Manning under center, as they want the long-time Giant to end his tenure with the team on a high note, but they’re missing some key players. Right guard Kevin Zeitler is missing his first game of the season, tight end Evan Engram is missing his 6th game in a row, safety Jabrill Peppers is missing his 3rd game in a row, and the Giants cut top cornerback Janoris Jenkins this week. I wouldn’t bet on the Dolphins, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Final Update: This line has moved up to 3.5 in most places. The Giants shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal against anyone and the Dolphins haven’t been the worst team in the league since turning back to Ryan Fitzpatrick. I wouldn’t go crazy with this bet, but about 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, so we’re getting good protection with Miami if they can’t pull the upset.

New York Giants 24 Miami Dolphins 23

Pick against the spread: Miami +3.5

Confidence: Medium

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: 2019 Week 14 NFL Pick

New York Giants (2-10) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)

The Eagles’ season hit an embarrassing low last week with their loss to the Dolphins. The Eagles have a top-10 roster on paper, but have been a middle of the pack team in first down rate differential all season and enter this week 17th at -0.04%. The Eagles under-achieved last season too, barely making the playoffs, despite one of the more talented rosters in the league, so this is back-to-back disappointing years for the Eagles.

At some point, it’s fair to question how much of this falls on head coach Doug Pederson. Pederson was anointed the next great coach after he defeated the Patriots to win the Super Bowl in his 2nd year on the job, but so far that’s his only impressive season in 4 years in the job and much of his success that season came as a result of offensive coordinator Frank Reich, who left following the Super Bowl and now is doing a similarly impressive job as the head coach in Indianapolis. Without Reich, the Eagles have not been the same and Pederson no longer looks like the offensive mastermind that hung 40 points on Bill Belichick in the Super Bowl. If not for Frank Reich, Pederson might not even still have his job right now.

With that in mind, I expect the Eagles to continue under-achieving. The Eagles get another easy matchup this week, but they’ve proven they will play down to the level of their competition and the Giants have been better than their 2-10 record suggests, entering this game 24th in first down rate differential at -2.60%. Turnovers have killed them, as they lead the league with 28 giveaways and are tied with the Dolphins for the worst turnover margin in the league at -14, but turnover margin tends to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so they won’t necessarily lose the turnover battle again this season.

One reason to expect fewer giveaways from the Giants is that they are going back to veteran quarterback Eli Manning, with rookie Daniel Jones dealing with an ankle injury. Manning is only a borderline starting caliber quarterback, but Jones was responsible for 21 of the Giants 28 giveaways by himself and was averaging 2.10 giveaways per start. As underwhelming as Manning has been over the past 4 seasons, he only averages 1.14 giveaways per start over that stretch. If the Giants can play turnover neutral football, they should be able to keep this game relatively close, so my calculated line is Philadelphia -7. We’re not getting quite enough line value with the Giants at +9.5 for them to be worth betting, but they should be the right side.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +9.5

Confidence: Low

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants: 2019 Week 13 NFL Pick

Green Bay Packers (8-3) at New York Giants (2-9)

The Packers were blown out last week in San Francisco in embarrassing fashion, losing by a final score of 37-8 in a game in which they lost the first down rate battle by a whopping 15.87%. Ordinarily, that loss would put the Packers in a good betting spot this week, as they are 35-21 ATS off of a loss with Aaron Rodgers under center. However, the Packers seem to be overrated this week, even after last week’s loss.

The Packers are 8-3 and have Aaron Rodgers so people are going to want to bet on them, but they have more problems than the general public realizes. Their 8-3 record has been boosted by a 5-1 record in games decided by 8 points or fewer and their 8 wins have come by a combined 67 points, while their 3 losses have come by a combined 51 points, giving them a pretty underwhelming point differential of +16. 

That’s despite the fact that the Packers have benefited significantly from turnover margins (5th in the NFL on the season at +8), which are very unpredictable on a week-to-week basis. In terms of first down rate differential, the Packers are dead even at 0.00% and have been even worse in recent weeks, with a -2.22% point differential since week 7 that ranks 23rd in the NFL over that time period. The Giants are just 2-9, but they’ve actually been slightly better in that metric over that time frame, ranking 21st at -1.79%. Overall, the Giants rank 23rd in first down rate differential at -2.29% on the season, struggling on the scoreboard primarily because of a -11 turnover margin that ranks 3rd worst in the NFL.

That being said, it’s hard to get excited about betting the Giants this week because they’re in a tough spot. Not only will the Packers likely be totally focused for this game after a loss last week, but they don’t have any upcoming distractions on deck, with a home game against the Redskins up next on the schedule, a game in which they are currently 14.5-point favorites on the early line. The Giants, meanwhile, have a big rivalry game against the Eagles in Philadelphia on deck, a game in which they are currently 8-point underdogs on the early line. 

Favorites of 6+ are 148-94 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6+ again the following week, while underdogs of 6+ are 84-132 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6+ again the following week. Combining the two, underdogs of 6+ are 11-49 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6+ again the following week when their opponent will be favorites of 6+ again the following week. It’s tough for an inferior team to compete with a superior team with another tough game on deck, especially when the superior team has another relatively easy game on deck. 

The Giants also are missing a pair of key players in their receiving corps, wide receiver Golden Tate and tight end Evan Engram, although they haven’t had a full strength receiving corps all year, so that’s not anything new. Even without those two players, I still have this line calculated at Green Bay -3.5, but I would need the full touchdown with the Giants to wager on them in a tough spot. This is a low confidence pick for now, but I’ll probably have an update tomorrow morning if the line moves.

Final Update: This line has moved to +7 in most places, but Bryan Bulaga is unexpectedly active for the Packers this week after being expected to miss a couple weeks with a knee injury. He may not be 100% and could be at risk of an in game injury setback, but I don’t want to bet on a team in a bad spot with a comparably worse injury situation, so I’m leaving this at a low confidence pick.

Green Bay Packers 24 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +7

Confidence: Low

New York Giants at Chicago Bears: 2019 Week 12 NFL Pick

New York Giants (2-8) at Chicago Bears (4-6)

The Giants are just 2-8 coming out of their bye, but they could be better than people expect in the second half of the season. Turnover margin has been a big part of their problem, as they have the second worst turnover margin in the league at -12, but turnover margin is unpredictable on a week-to-week basis. In first down rate differential, they rank 20th at -2.18%, which obviously isn’t great, but it’s better than their record suggests. They’re also relatively healthy compared to the rest of the league and compared earlier this season, when they had six offensive starters all miss time with injury or suspension. Only tight end Evan Engram remains sidelined and he’s their only notable injury on either side of the ball right now, which is pretty good for this late in the season.

The Bears, meanwhile, have had an incredibly disappointing year, starting 4-6 after going 12-4 a season ago, but it’s not all that surprising. The Bears record last year was primarily the result of a defense that was the best in the NFL by a wide margin and a schedule that was the easiest in the NFL. This off-season, they lost a pair of starters on defense (Bryce Callahan and Adrian Amos) and, most importantly, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who got career years out of players like Eddie Jackson and Kyle Fuller who have regressed mightily in 2019. They’re also without defensive end Akiem Hicks and middle linebacker Danny Trevathan due to injury. As a result, the Bears rank “just” 7th in first down rate allowed at 33.64%. Combine that with an offense that has regressed in Matt Nagy’s second season, ranking just 29th in first down rate at 30.74%, and the Bears rank just 23rd in first down rate differential at -2.90%, actually slightly behind the Giants.

I have these two teams ranked about even, so we’re getting significant line value with the visiting Giants, who are 6-point underdogs. This is also a bad spot for the Bears, who have to play on a short week next week (44% cover spot all-time for favorites) and who are also coming off of a tough and potentially season ending loss in Los Angeles last week. They might not bring their best effort for a 2-8 Giants team and the Giants could easily catch them off guard. This is only a medium confidence pick because the Giants are in a tough spot as well, with a tough home game against the Packers on deck (teams are 40-71 ATS since 2016 before being home underdogs of 4.5 or more), but the Giants are still worth betting as 6-point underdogs.

Chicago Bears 20 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +6

Confidence: Medium

New York Giants at New York Jets: 2019 Week 10 NFL Pick

New York Giants (2-7) at New York Jets (1-7)

Earlier in the week, I thought I would be making a big play on the Giants this week, as they opened as mere 1-point favorites in what is effectively a neutral site game against their stadium co-tenants the New York Jets. That has changed for two reasons. For one, both the public and the sharps jumped on the Giants at -1, causing the odds makers to push this all the way up to -3 throughout the week. The Giants were +1.5 on the early line last week, so all in all this line has moved pretty significantly and we’ve lost a lot of line value.

At the same time, the Giants’ injury situation has taken a turn for the worse. Last week, it looked like the Giants would be the healthiest they’ve been all season, but Sterling Shepard had a setback and went back in the concussion protocol indefinitely before last week’s game against the Cowboys and the Giants have since lost a pair of starters on the offensive line (right tackle Mike Remmers and center Jon Halapio) and talented tight end Evan Engram as well. 

Fortunately, the Giants get a very easy matchup this week, as the Jets rank 2nd worst in first down rate differential at -9.06% and just lost to the team that is worst (-9.38%), the Miami Dolphins. Part of that is because Sam Darnold missed three games, during which the Jets managed a pathetic 18.01% first down rate, but they’ve had a -6.02% first down rate differential even in the 5 games Darnold has started, which would be 29th in the NFL over the full season. Darnold isn’t the problem on this team, but he has hardly been the solution in his second season in the league. Most of the off-season additions the Jets have made in the past two off-seasons to build around Darnold are either hurt or have not been as effective as the Jets expected. 

Even with the Giants banged up, I still have them about 4 points better than the Jets. The Giants haven’t been good this season, but they’ve been better than their record suggests, ranking 20th in first down rate differential at -1.94%, but getting killed by turnovers, with a -10 turnover margin that is 3rd worst in the NFL. Turnovers tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis though and I like the Giants chances of at worst playing turnover neutral football this week against one of the worst teams in the league. We’re not getting enough line value with the Giants to bet them confidently, but they should still be the right side.

New York Giants 24 New York Jets 20

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -3

Confidence: Low