Giants

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (8-5-1) at Minnesota Vikings (11-3)

Both of these teams have impressive records, but both teams have needed to have a lot of success in close games to get to these records, which tends not to be sustainable long-term, as victories by larger margins are more predictive of future success than close victories. The Vikings have gone a ridiculous 10-0 in one-score games, with just a 1-3 record in games decided by more than one score, while the Giants are 8-2-1 in one-score games and don’t have any wins by more than one score, going 0-3 in games decided by more than 8 points. 

As a result, the Vikings have just a +2 point differential and rank just 20th in schedule adjusted efficiency (-1.13), while the Giants have a -25 point differential and rank 27th in schedule adjusted efficiency (-4.81). This line seems to take into account that the Vikings are not as good as their record, but I think it overrates the Giants, only favoring the Vikings at home by four points, even though the Vikings have a 3.5-point edge in schedule adjusted efficiency. The difference is even bigger in my roster rankings, with the Vikings being relatively healthy and the Giants having significant injury concerns, including the absence of their two best cornerbacks and their top safety, leading to the Vikings having a 7-point edge in my roster rankings. 

Overall, my calculated line favors the Vikings by seven, which might seem high, given how many close games the Vikings play, but, while they don’t have many wins by more than one-score, seven of the Vikings’ eleven wins have actually come by four points or more, while all five of the Giants’ losses have come by more than four, so I feel confident in the Vikings at this number. This isn’t a big play, but Minnesota should be bettable this week.

Minnesota Vikings 27 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -4

Confidence: Medium

New York Giants at Washington Commanders: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (7-5-1) at Washington Commanders (7-5-1)

These two teams have the same record, but the Commanders have a significantly better point differential. The Commanders’ -3 point differential is worse than you would expect given their record, but the Giants are even worse at -33, as their seven wins have come by an average of 5 points per game, as opposed to 13.6 points per game in their five losses. The gap is even more pronounced when you look at schedule adjusted efficiency, as the Commanders rank 15th and the Giants rank 27th, about 4.5 points behind Washington.

The Giants have also especially struggled in recent weeks as injury absences have effected them significantly, especially on their struggling defense, most notably the absence of starting cornerbacks Adoree Jackson and Aaron Robinson, talented safety Xavier McKinney, and stud interior defender Leonard Williams. Williams could return for this game, but the Giants’ defense is still in significantly worse shape now that it was earlier in the season, particularly in the secondary.

Despite that, the Commanders are just 4.5-point favorites at home. That is a relatively high number, with about 30% of games being decided by four points or fewer, but with the Commanders being at home, being significantly healthier than the Giants, and having a 4.5-point edge in schedule adjusted efficiency, the Commanders should be favored by at least a touchdown. I might need Leonard Williams to miss this game for the Commanders to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes either way and I might still end up deciding to bet on Washington even if Williams plays. This is low confidence for now, but I may update this.

Update: Some -4s have started showing up this morning and I think the Commanders are worth a small bet at that number.

Washington Commanders 24 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: Washington -4

Confidence: Medium

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) at New York Giants (7-4-1)

The Giants are 7-4-1, but that is a misleading record, as all seven wins have come by one score, with just two coming against teams that are currently better than 5-8. Meanwhile, all four of their losses have come by 7 points or more, which is relevant with this line favoring the Eagles by 7. As a result of their close margins of victory and bigger margins of defeat, the Giants have just a -7 point differential, despite a relatively easy schedule, leading to them ranking just 25th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 4 points below average. The Eagles, meanwhile, rank 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 6 points above average and 10 points above the Giants. 

The Eagles also frequently win by margins that would at least push this 7-point spread, with 8 wins by 7 points or more, a trend that actually goes back to last season, when they had 7 such victories, even when they weren’t as good as they are this season. The Giants will also be without a pair of key defenders this week, missing top cornerback Adoree Jackson and stud interior defender Leonard Williams, while the Eagles are relatively close to full strength for how late in the season it is. My roster rankings give the healthier Eagles a 14-point edge, so I like their chances of beating the Giants by a pretty convincing margin, even in New York. The Eagles are worth a big play at -7 and a smaller play if you have to take them at -7.5.

Philadelphia Eagles 28 New York Giants 16

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -7

Confidence: High

Washington Commanders at New York Giants: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Washington Commanders (7-5) at New York Giants (7-4)

This is one of the least interesting games to me from an against the spread perspective this week because this line, favoring the visiting Commanders by two points, is right about where it should be and there are no situational trends affecting the game. The Giants are not as good as their 7-4 record, but the public and oddsmakers seem to know that, resulting in this line being right where it should be. My calculated line says the Giants are the slightly better pick at this number, but there’s not nearly enough here to be confident in either side.

Washington Commanders 21 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +2

Confidence: None

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (7-3) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)

A week ago on the early line, the Cowboys were 6.5 point favorites, but this line has since shifted all the way to 10, as a result of the Cowboys’ blowout win in Minnesota and the Giants’ blowout loss in Detroit. Normally I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements like this because they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play, but in this case I think the line movement is justified, not only because of the results of last week, but also because the Giants are now missing their two best cornerbacks, Adoree Jackson and Fabian Moreau, as well as several offensive linemen. On top of that, I think the line was too low at 6.5 to begin with.

The Giants are 7-3, but that’s a very misleading record. In addition to their blowout loss to a sub .500 Lions team last week, their second multi-score loss of the season, the Giants’ seven wins have all come by one score, with just two coming against teams that are currently better than 4-7. As a result, the Giants have just a +1 point differential, despite a relatively easy schedule. The Cowboys have the same record at 7-3, but they have a +84 point differential (2nd best in the NFL), despite facing a tougher schedule. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Cowboys rank 7th, 4.5 points above average, while the Giants rank 27th, 4.5 points below average.

That’s despite the fact that the Cowboys were without starting quarterback Dak Prescott for five games earlier this season. He has since returned and the Cowboys are now relatively healthy overall, while the Giants are going the other way injury wise, leading to the Cowboys having a 12-point edge in my roster rankings. Given that, we’re actually still getting some line value with the Cowboys, as my calculated line favors them by 14 points. I wouldn’t bet on the Cowboys at 10, but if this line drops down to 9.5, they would be worth betting at that number and, either way, the Cowboys are the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Dallas Cowboys 27 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: Dallas -10

Confidence: Low

Detroit Lions at New York Giants: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (3-6) at New York Giants (7-2)

This line moved from favoring the Giants by four points on the early line last week to just three points this week, a significant swing given that 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly three points. Normally I like to go against a significant week-to-week line movement like that as it tends to be an overreaction, but, in this case, I don’t think the line has moved far enough and was too high to begin with. The Giants beat the Texans last week, but the Texans are arguably the worst team in the league and the Giants needed to win the turnover margin by two to win the game by eight and they lost the first down rate battle and yards per play battle by 8.12% and 0.97 respectively, which are much more predictive than turnovers. 

The Giants are 7-2 overall, but all of their wins have come by eight points or fewer, with all but two coming against sub-.500 teams, and several of their wins have required comebacks, with the Giants ranking just 27th in time leading per game, despite their record. They could beat the Lions and move to 8-2, but I expect the Lions to keep this game close and, with this line at a full field goal, the Lions seem like the better side, at least for pick ‘em purposes. There isn’t enough here for the Giants to be worth betting, but, with my calculated line at NY Giants -1.5, I expect this to be a close game and one the Lions could end up winning.

New York Giants 24 Detroit Lions 23

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3

Confidence: Low

Houston Texans at New York Giants: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (1-6-1) at New York Giants (6-2)

The Giants are 6-2, but they haven’t played nearly as well as that suggests, coming from behind to barely win most of their victories. In terms of time leading, the Giants rank 4th worst in the NFL and in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency they rank 23rd, about three points below average, in line with my roster rankings, which have them four points below average. Unfortunately, the public and the oddsmakers seem to realize the Giants are not nearly as good as their record, with the Giants favored by just 4.5 points at home against the Texans.

The Texans are arguably the worst team in the league, ranking dead last in schedule adjusted efficiency, about eight points below average. My roster rankings have them slightly better than that, about six points below average, but they are still probably the worst team in the league and my calculated line actually suggests we’re getting some line value with the Giants, calculating them as 5-point favorites. This is one of my lowest confidence picks, but I’m taking the Giants for pick ‘em purposes.

New York Giants 24 Houston Texans 19

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -4.5

Confidence: None

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (6-1) at Seattle Seahawks (4-3)

The Giants are a surprising 6-1, but all of their wins have come by one score and they have been lucky to win some of them. Despite their record, they actually rank just 22nd in schedule adjusted efficiency, about two points below average, and my roster rankings have them even worse, about four points below average, in large part due to injuries piling up. This week, the Giants will be without right tackle Evan Neal, tight end Daniel Bellinger, and edge defenders Azeez Ojulari and Oshane Ximines all out this week, among other long-term injured players like cornerback Aaron Robinson and wide receiver Sterling Shepard.

The Seahawks also have a surprising record at 4-3 and that record is more in line with how they’ve played than the Giants’ record, as the Seahawks rank 17th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about a half point below average. The Seahawks probably won’t be quite as good on offense going forward as they’ve been thus far, overachieving by ranking 9th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, while their defensive issues, 28th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, are more likely to continue than their offensive success is. 

However, even with the Seahawks’ likely offensive regression taken into account, the Seahawks still rank two points higher in my roster rankings than the Giants, about two points below average. Given that, we are getting some line value with the Seahawks as field goal home underdogs, with my calculated line favoring the Seahawks by four. It’s not enough for the Seahawks to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Seattle Seahawks 27 New York Giants 22

Pick against the spread: Seattle -3

Confidence: Low

New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (5-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4)

The Giants have a 5-1 record, while the Jaguars are just 2-4, but the Jaguars actually have the better point differential between these two teams (+24 vs. +14). While all of the Giants’ wins have come by just one score, the Jaguars’ wins have come by 24 and 28, while their losses have all come by one score. Big blowout wins tend to be much more predictive of future success than close wins and the gap between these two teams is even more pronounced if you look at schedule adjusted efficiency, where the 9th ranked Jaguars have a 5.5-point edge over the 23rd ranked Giants. My roster rankings have these two teams closer together than schedule adjusted efficiency, but, any way you look at it, the Jaguars are the slightly better team, despite not having nearly as good of a record.

Unfortunately, the odds makers are still not giving the Giants any respect, despite their record, so we’re not getting any line value with the Jaguars, who are favored by a full field goal at home, even being three games worse than the Giants in the standings. The Jaguars are in a better spot, as the Giants are coming off of a big home upset win over the Ravens last week, which tends to be a situation in which teams are flat the following week, covering the spread at just a 41.3% rate after a home upset win as underdogs of 5 points or more. However, that isn’t enough for the Jaguars to be worth betting without getting any real line value, so this is only a low confidence pick.

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville -3

Confidence: Low

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at New York Giants (4-1)

The Giants are a surprising 4-1, but they haven’t played as well as that suggests, as they have had one of the easiest schedules in the league and haven’t won any games by more than one score. They got their best win of the season last week against the Packers in London, but, even with that taken into account, the Giants rank just 21st in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 1.5 points below average. That lines up with my roster rankings, which have the Giants 2.5 points below average.

Unfortunately, the public and odds makers seem to still understand that the Giants aren’t as good as their record, with this line favoring the Ravens on the road by 5.5 points. The Ravens are 3-2, but both of their losses came on last second scores and their point differential is tied for 6th best in the NFL. They’re also 5.5 points above average in schedule adjusted efficiency and 6.5 points above average in my roster rankings. There isn’t enough here for me to take them as 5.5 point road favorites with any confidence against a competitive Giants team, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Baltimore Ravens 26 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -5.5

Confidence: None