Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) at Chicago Bears (12-4)
The Bears went 12-4 this season and were arguably even better than their record suggests. Those 4 losses came by a combined 14 points, with two of them coming in overtime, and they won the first down rate battle in 3 of those 4 games. In fact, the last time they didn’t win the first down rate battle was way back in the season opener in Green Bay, a 1-point loss. On the season, they finished first in the league in first down rate differential at +6.64%.
The schedule gets a lot harder for them in the playoffs though, as they finished with the 2nd easiest schedule in terms of opponents DVOA and played just 3 eventual playoff teams all season (2-1), which is tied for fewest among playoff qualifiers. Their opponents this week, the Philadelphia Eagles, finished the season 8th in first down rate differential at 2.99%, which ranks only behind the Rams among the Bears’ 2018 opponents.
I know the Eagles lost starting quarterback Carson Wentz to injury and have other key players on injured reserve, but this team has actually been playing better since Wentz went down, winning 3 straight games after their week 14 loss. Wentz wasn’t playing at 100% even when on the field and backup Nick Foles is an experienced starter who has been in this position before. They’ve especially been better defensively, with stud linebacker Jordan Hicks back from injury and their young injury plagued secondary playing much better in recent weeks.
The Eagles also seem to play harder with their backs up against the wall with a backup quarterback in the lineup, pulling the upset victory in all 4 games in which they’ve been an underdog with Foles under center over the past 2 seasons. The Eagles might not win straight up this week, but I like the Eagles’ chances of keeping this one close as 6.5-point underdogs. Their 9-7 record is worst among playoff qualifiers, but they’ve played a lot of close games, with just 2 of those losses coming by more than 6 points (relevant considering this line is 6.5). One of those losses by more than 6 points was a 7-point loss to the Cowboys and the other came in New Orleans, against arguably the best team in the league.
The Bears are also in a tough spot with a first time starting quarterback under center. Quarterbacks tend not to cover in their first career post-season start, especially at home, where they are 6-18 ATS since 2002 unless they’re playing another first time starter, which is not the case this week with Nick Foles making his 5th career playoff start. The Eagles are worth a bet at either +6 and +6.5 and are worth a bigger play if this line happens to move up to a full touchdown before gametime (unlikely). I’ll also consider bumping this up if Bears safety Eddie Jackson ends up not returning from a 2-game absence, after being limited in practice all week. He’s currently considered a game-time decision.
Chicago Bears 23 Philadelphia Eagles 20
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +6.5