Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

Tennessee Titans (7-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)

The Titans are 7-4, but their wins haven’t been that impressive. Their only win against a team that is .500 or better right now came against the Commanders, who are 7-5 now, but were just 1-4 when they were starting Carson Wentz against the Titans, and all of their wins have been close, with several that could have gone either way. Only two of their wins have come by more than a touchdown and neither win was as impressive as that suggests, as they needed a defensive touchdown to push the margin to 9 against the Colts, while their 10-point win over the Packers came against a team in a terrible spot, playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 2-22 ATS all-time. 

The Eagles are an obvious step up in competition and have much more in common with the four teams that have beaten them than the seven teams they have beaten. The Eagles aren’t as good as their 10-1 record, as they’ve benefitted from a league best +13 turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week, but they also rank 5th in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is predictive week-to-week, so, even if they’ve benefitted from turnovers, it’s hard to argue they’re not at least one of the top few teams in the league. The Titans, meanwhile, rank 28th in schedule adjusted efficiency and, even if they’re not as bad as that suggests, the Eagles should be favored by more than 4.5 points at home against them. My calculated line is Philadelphia -9.5, so we’re getting good line value with the Eagles, enough for a big bet.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -4.5

Confidence: High

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

Green Bay Packers (4-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)

The Packers are 4-7, a year after going 13-4, but their drop off isn’t all that surprising. Despite their record last season, the Packers finished just 10th in point differential and 11th in overall efficiency, even with an MVP season from Aaron Rodgers who, as good as he is, was no guarantee to play at quite the same level in 2022, now in his age 39 season. Add in the loss of by far their top wide receiver Davante Adams this off-season and some regression was to be expected from them, especially on offense.

In many ways, things have gone how you might expect, given the circumstances. The Packers’ defense has remained middling, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency in 2021 and 20th in 2022, but their offense has fallen off significantly, falling from 4th in offensive efficiency a year ago to 15th this season, while their horrendous special teams that ranked dead last efficiency a year ago has only been slightly better this year, ranking 29th. All in all, the Packers rank just 23rd in overall efficiency when adjusted for schedule, about 2.5 points below average, and they’ve been worse in recent weeks, since losing a pair of key defenders, Rashan Gary and De’Vondre Campbell, for an extended period of time.

The Packers have also been especially bad on the road this year, going 1-5 with a -37 point differential away from Lambeau, as opposed to 3-2 with a -4 point differential at home, which is nothing new for them, as they have consistently underperformed on the road with Aaron Rodgers, whose QB rating drops 10 points on the road, far above the league average. Despite that, the Packers are only 6.5-point underdogs in Philadelphia, where the Eagles have won by more than a touchdown in four of their five home games.

The Eagles aren’t quite as good as their 9-1 record, as they’ve benefitted from a league best +12 turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week, but they also rank 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 5.5 points above average, which is predictive, and they are the top team in my roster rankings, so, even if they’ve benefitted from turnovers, it’s hard to argue they’re not at least one of the top few teams in the league. Given that, this line is way too low, as my calculated line favors the Eagles by 11, even before taking into account Aaron Rodgers’ relative struggles on the road. The Packers seem to be a little overrated based on the name value of their quarterback, while the Eagles are getting great value at -6.5. This is my top pick this week.

Philadelphia Eagles 30 Green Bay Packers 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5-1)

The Eagles lost their first game of the season last week at home against the Washington Commanders, but that was primarily because the Commanders converted 13 of 22 on third and fourth downs and won the turnover battle by two, allowing Washington to win despite losing the first down rate battle by 8.09% and the yards per play battle by 1.54. Losses like that tend to be a complete fluke, as first downs and yards tend to be much more predictive than turnover margins and third and fourth downs. 

Even after losing the turnover battle last week, the Eagles still lead the league in turnover margin, having a +15 turnover margin across their 8-0 start, and, while turnover margin isn’t predictive, the Eagles also rank 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive, and they rank even higher in my roster rankings, which they lead, in part due to the fact that they are one of the healthiest teams in the league. They also have history on their side, as teams tend to bounce back in a big way after a big upset loss like the Eagles had last week (11-point favorites), with teams covering at a 57.7% rate after a loss as favorites of 10 points or more.

The Eagles’ loss last week moved this line from favoring the Eagles by 9.5 to favoring them by 6.5, a big swing, and one that was not justified, as my calculated line still has the Eagles favored by 9.5 points, even before taking into account that they’re in a great spot to bounce back after getting upset last week. The Colts pulled the upset in Las Vegas last week, but they still rank just 24th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 3.5 points below average, and I’m still skeptical of interim head coach Jeff Saturday long-term. The Colts could also be without starting right tackle Braden Smith after he tweaked his back in practice on Friday and my calculated line would increase if he didn’t play, as he’s arguably their best offensive lineman. There isn’t another game I like more than this one this week, so I’m locking in the Eagles at -6.5 as my Pick of the Week.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Indianapolis Colts 16

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

Washington Commanders (4-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-0)

The Eagles have benefited from a +15 turnover margin en route to their 8-0 start, which is by far the best in the league, but also not something that is predictive long-term. However, the Eagles still rank 6th in schedule adjusted efficiency, four points above average, and they have the most talented roster in the league in my roster rankings as well. They are favored by 11 points at home this week against the Commanders, which is a lot, but we’re actually still getting a little bit of line value with the Eagles at that number. 

The Commanders are 4-5, but their four wins came by 14 points combined and they are a well below average team overall, ranking 24th in point differential at -33 and 20th in schedule adjusted efficiency, 1.5 points below average, while being 4.5 points below average in my roster rankings. My calculated line is Philadelphia -13.5, so there isn’t nearly enough here for the Eagles to be worth betting, but I’m somewhat confident in their ability to cover this large spread for pick ‘em purposes.

Philadelphia Eagles 26 Washington Commanders 13

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -11

Confidence: Low

Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (7-0) at Houston Texans (1-5-1)

A week ago on the early line, the Eagles were favored by 9 points in this matchup with the Texans in Houston, but this line has since shifted all the way up to 14. Normally I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements like that because they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play, but in this case, I think the original line was always too low and the line movement was needed for this line to be around the correct number.

The Eagles may not be the best team in the league, despite being the league’s last undefeated team at 7-0, as they have benefited significantly from a +14 turnover margin (+8 more than any other team), which is not predictive week-to-week, while ranking just 5th in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive. However, they are still one of the best teams in the league any way you look at it, while the Texans are arguably the worst team in the league, ranking dead last in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 10 points below average and 4 points worse than any other team in the league.

The Texans were similarly bad last season too, actually finishing 13 points below average and 5 points worse than any other team in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency. They’re a more talented team this season than they were last season, but not significantly so and they are missing several key players with injury right now, including edge defender Jonathan Greenard, wide receiver Nico Collins, and interior defender Maliek Collins. Without those three, my roster rankings have them about seven points below average. 

Overall, I have the Texans eight points below average, giving us a calculated line of Philadelphia -14.5, with the Eagles about 8.5 points above average. Obviously we’ve lost all line value with the Eagles in the past week because of the significant line movement, but they should still be the right side for pick ‘em purposes, in what should be a blowout. I can’t take the Eagles with any confidence at such a high number, but, either way, I don’t expect this game to be close.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Houston Texans 16

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -14

Confidence: None

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-0)

The Eagles are the league’s last remaining undefeated team, but they’ve been very reliant on the turnover margin, leading the league by far with a +12 turnover margin. That’s a concern because turnovers are not really predictive week-to-week and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive, the Eagles rank just 5th, ranking 13th, 7th, and 25th on offense, defense, and special teams respectively. That’s still impressive, but it’s not as impressive as their record and puts them outside the top few teams in the league.

The Eagles are also in a tough spot here having to turn around again and play on Thursday Night Football next week. Favorites cover at just a 42.3% rate before Thursday Night Football and the Eagles, favored by 10.5, could easily take their foot off the gas in the second half and allow a backdoor cover, even if they do manage to get a big lead. We’re not getting much line value with the Steelers, with my calculated line having them as 10 point underdogs, but that would change if TJ Watt ends up making his return this week from a 6-game absence, which seems more likely than not at this point. If that happens and this line doesn’t shift drastically, I will strongly consider a bet on the Steelers.

Philadelphia Eagles 26 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +10.5

Confidence: Low

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-0)

The Cowboys are undefeated since having to turn to backup quarterback Cooper Rush in place of the injured Dak Prescott, but the Cowboys have faced a relatively easy schedule during those four games and it has been their defense carrying them, ranking 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency on the season, while the offense ranks just 28th. The schedule gets a lot tougher this week on the road against the undefeated Eagles, who have a dominant defense of their own, ranking 14th in schedule adjusted efficiency, in addition to a solid offense, which ranks 5th. 

The Eagles are getting healthier too, with stud left tackle Jordan Mailata and talented cornerback Avonte Maddox returning from absences of one and three games respectively. My roster rankings have them 6.5 points better, giving us a calculated line that favors the Eagles by 9 points at home. That gives us some line value, with this line at Philadelphia -6.5, and the Eagles are in a great spot as well, with home favorites of 6 points or more covering the spread at a 62.9% rate before a bye week. The Eagles are worth a bet this week, as long as this line remains below a touchdown.

Philadelphia Eagles 26 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6.5

Confidence: Medium

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2)

Coming into the season, I thought the Cardinals were one of the most overrated teams in the league. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency, barely above average. They also got a lot worse this off-season, losing starting wide receiver Christian Kirk, top edge defender Chandler Jones, top off ball linebacker Jordan Hicks, top cornerback Robert Alford, and their most efficient running back Chase Edmonds, with their only major addition being former Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown, who cost the Cardinals their first round pick in a trade and who isn’t a significant upgrade on Christian Kirk. They’re also without top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games of the season due to a suspension.

The Cardinals have started 2-2, but they have a negative point differential at -15, despite a +4 turnover margin, third best in the league. In terms of overall efficiency, the Cardinals rank 30th, six points below average. My roster rankings don’t have them quite as bad, but they are still a couple points below average. Ordinarily, the Eagles would be an intriguing bet here, even as 5-point favorites on the road, because they are legitimately one of the best teams in the league, but they’ll be without one of their most important players, left tackle Jordan Mailata, and also they could overlook the Cardinals a little bit, with a more important divisional matchup with the Cowboys on deck next week. I’m still taking the Eagles for pick ‘em purposes, but they’re not worth betting.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -5

Confidence: Low

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)

Coming into the season, I expected the Eagles to be one of the best teams in the league, projecting them to win 12 games and tie for the best record in the NFC. The Eagles were coming off of a playoff appearance a season ago, finishing 9th in overall efficiency, and got significantly better on both sides of the ball this off-season due to additions like AJ Brown, Haason Reddick, and James Bradberry, which seemed likely to vault them into the top tier of the NFL. So far, that has been the case as the Eagles are the NFL’s last unbeaten team, while ranking 10th, 2nd, and 4th in offensive, defensive, and overall schedule adjusted efficiency. 

The Jaguars have also gotten out to an impressive start, sitting at 2-1 with a pair of multi-score wins and a schedule adjusted efficiency that ranks 6th in the NFL, but they’re still a couple points behind the Eagles in overall efficiency and I think they have much less staying power, with a roster that is not as good as their impressive to start to the season. While the Eagles are among the best teams in my roster rankings, the Jaguars rank nine points behind them as more of a middle of the road team. This line is decently high, favoring the Eagles by 6.5 at home, but, with the Eagles being one of the best teams in the league and the Jaguars being more middle of the road, I have the Eagles calculated as 10-point home favorites in this game, giving us good line value with them. This isn’t a big play, but the Eagles are worth betting in this game.

Philadelphia Eagles 30 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6.5

Confidence: Medium

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders: 2022 Week 3 NFL Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Washington Commanders (1-1)

This line has jumped significantly from a week ago, when the Eagles were just 3-point favorites on the early line in this game in Washington, as the Eagles are now favored by 6.5 points. Normally I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play and that is the case here, but I am not confident in Washington, as I think the Eagles were undervalued on the early line last week, like they were as mere 2-point home favorites in what eventually became a blowout win over the Vikings. My calculated line, Philadelphia -5, still suggests we’re getting line value with the Commanders, but not nearly enough to bet on it.

Philadelphia Eagles 26 Washington Commanders 20

Pick against the spread: Washington +6.5

Confidence: None