Philadelphia Eagles 2026 NFL Season Preview

Quarterback

The Eagles won the Super Bowl in 2024, after a 14-3 regular season, but in 2025, they fell to 11-6 and went out in the first round of the post-season. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, they were even worse than their record suggested in 2025, finishing 16th, as their record was helped by a 8-4 record in one-score games, which likely won’t happen again in 2026. Making matters worse, their only three wins by more than one score came against teams that finished 5-12 or worse. 

The Eagles’ defense declining last season was not that surprising, as they lost four players who played at least 500 snaps or more on their 2024 defense last off-season, but, while their defense only fell from 1st in schedule adjusted efficiency to 7th, their offense actually fell even more, from 13th to 22nd, despite bringing back 10 of 11 starters. The reasons for their offensive decline are complex, but to simplify it, the Eagles’ lost offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who became the Saints’ head coach, and replaced him with Kevin Patullo, who was overmatched in his first season on the job, leading to numerous players having down seasons. 

Patullo was fired this off-season and was replaced by former Packers quarterbacks coach Sean Mannion, who should be an upgrade by default. However, Mannion is an inexperienced coach who probably won’t be as good as Kellen Moore was and the Eagles’ offense lost talented wide receiver AJ Brown via trade this off-season and didn’t get any trade compensation for him until 2028, so it seems unlikely the Eagles’ offense will bounce all the way back to their 2024 level of play in 2026.

Quarterback Jalen Hurts is obviously a Super Bowl winning quarterback, but he was far from the biggest reason why the Eagles played at the level they played at in 2024, as their defense was the strength of the team, while the offense had a loaded supporting cast. Over the past four seasons, Hurts’ numbers look good, as he has completed 66.2% of his passes for an average of 7.55 YPA, 88 touchdowns, and 32 interceptions, while rushing for 4.19 YPC and 50 touchdowns on 577 carries, but his numbers look better than he has played because of how much talent he has had around him. From 2024 to 2025, he saw his completion percentage drop from 68.7% to 64.8% and his YPA drop from 8.04 to a career low 7.10. He’s certainly not a bad starting quarterback, but he’s not a particularly good one either, which is a concern with his supporting cast not being what it was in 2024, most notably with AJ Brown gone.

Tanner McKee was Hurts’ backup last season and the 2023 6th round pick has shown some promise in his career, completing 61.4% of his passes for an average of 6.78 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 1 interception, but both of his starts have come in meaningless week 18 games that were glorified pre-season games, so it is tough to put much stock into his performance. The Eagles don’t seem totally sold on him either, adding veteran backup Andy Dalton and 5th round pick Cole Turner this off-season to compete with McKee.

Dalton is extremely experienced, making 169 career starts in 15 seasons in the league, completing 62.6% of his passes for an average of 7.04 YPA, 254 touchdowns, and 151 interceptions, but he has only made seven starts in the past three seasons, completing 64.7% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in that stretch, and now he’s heading into his age 39 season, so there is no guarantee he will be better than McKee. Turner, meanwhile, is probably too raw to be the backup as a rookie and figures to spend his first season in the league as a 3rd string quarterback at best. This is not a bad quarterback room, but it isn’t a particularly good one either.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, the loss of AJ Brown will be a big deal for this offense. Like most of this offense, he had a down year in 2025, but he still finished with a 78/1003/7 slash line and was even better than that suggests, as he averaged 8.29 yards per target and 2.06 yards per route run, with his production being kept down by the run heavy nature of the Eagles’ offense, which ranked just 24th in pass attempts. In 2024, he was even more efficient, averaging 9.84 yards per target and 2.99 yards per route run.

To try to replace Brown, the Eagles went with quantity over quality, a shift in strategy for a team who directed 80.4% of their wide receiver targets to their top-2 wide receivers in 2025 and 71.3% in 2024. Likely the best of their new wide receivers is Makai Lemon, who they selected in the first round. Lemon has the upside to be as good as Brown long-term, but he will almost definitely be a downgrade as a rookie. He will probably be the #2 wide receiver, with veteran additions Dontayvion Wicks and Hollywood Brown likely to compete for the #3 wide receiver job. 

Wicks is probably the heavy favorite for that role, as the Eagles gave up a pair of late round picks and gave him a 1-year, 12.5 million dollar extension for 2027 upon acquiring him. Wicks has a decent 1.63 yards per route run average in his career, but he’s been a part-time player through three seasons in the league, with snap counts of 458, 586, and 409. It is possible he plays a career high in snaps this season, but it is also possible he continues rotating snaps, with Hollywood Brown also being added on a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal. Brown is a decent, but unspectacular player with a career 1.56 yards per route run average, despite good quarterback play for most of his career.

Devonta Smith will probably also see a higher target share in Brown’s absence, becoming a true #1 receiver, rather than a 1b to Brown’s 1a. Smith is one of the few Eagles offensive players who didn’t have a down year last season, with a 77/1008/4 slash line on 113 targets in 17 games with 1.92 yards per route run, in line with his career averages of 82/1067/7 per 17 games and 1.90 yards per route run. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, I would expect a similar level of play from him in 2026, with a likely uptick in production as a result of a higher target share.

The Eagles could also run more two tight end sets this season to try to make up for the loss of AJ Brown, with Eli Stowers being added in the second round of the draft, to backup long-time starting tight end Dallas Goedert. In seven seasons as a starter, Goedert has averaged a 69/802/6 slash line per 17 games with a 1.72 yards per route run average. However, he has missed 25 games with injury during those seven seasons and he is now going into his age 31 season and coming off of a down year, in which he had a 60/591/11 slash line in 15 games and a 1.37 yards per route run average. Stowers was likely drafted in part time to be Goedert’s long-term replacement, in addition to having a situational role in the short-term. This receiving corps won’t be as good without AJ Brown, but they are at least deeper than they have been in recent years.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Eagles’ offensive line was the unit that had the biggest regression from 2024 to 2025, as they went from ranking 6th in pass block win rate and 9th in run block win rate in 2024 to 17th and 16th in those two metrics in 2025. This happened despite the Eagles’ bringing back four of five starters from their 2024 offensive line in 2025. The one difference was at right guard, where Mekhi Becton left as a free agent and was replaced by Tyler Steen. 

Steen was a bit of a downgrade from Becton, as Becton was a slightly above average starter, while Steen was a slightly below average starter, but that alone was not the reason for the unit’s decline. Steen remains as the starter in 2026 and as a 2023 3rd round pick who is going into his second season as a starter, he could take a step forward in 2026, still only his age 26 season, but that is not a guarantee.

A bigger reason why they declined on the offensive line in 2025 was right tackle Lane Johnson missing seven regular season games due to injury, in addition to their playoff loss to the 49ers. Johnson was their best offensive lineman in 2024 and, until getting hurt, he was their best offensive lineman again in 2025, as he has been for many years, so his absence was a big deal. His absence was especially a big deal because backup Fred Johnson was a liability, as he has been for most of his career, in which he has made 22 starts in seven seasons in the league as a swing tackle. Lane Johnson will probably be healthier in 2026, but he has a pretty extensive injury history, missing 45 games in 13 seasons in the league, while missing at least one game in all but two seasons in the league, with his last full season coming back in 2016. 

On top of that, Lane Johnson is going into his age 36 season in 2026 and, between his age and injury history, he could easily decline noticeably in 2026. Johnson is a potential Hall of Famer with numerous All-Pro caliber seasons in his career, so even at less than his best, he could easily be an above average starter, but a significant decline from him would counteract the benefit of having him on the field for more games. The Eagles used a 3rd round pick on Markel Bell to potentially replace Johnson long-term, but he enters the league very raw and might not even be able to beat out Fred Johnson for the swing tackle role in year one.

Left guard Landon Dickerson and Cam Jurgens were relatively healthy in 2025 compared to Johnson, though they did miss two games and three games respectively. The bigger problem was both declined even when on the field in 2025 compared to 2024, with Dickerson going from an above average starter to an average starter and Jurgens going from an average starter to a slightly below average starter. For Dickerson, 2024 was the best season of his 5-year career, so he probably won’t be as good again in 2026, but 2025 was arguably his worst and 2026 figures to be somewhere in between, still in his prime in his age 28 season. The same should be true for Jurgens, a 2022 2nd round pick and 3-year starter, for whom 2024 was also a career best year. 

The one spot where the Eagles got the same level of play all season on this offensive line in 2024 and 2025 was left tackle, where Jordan Mailata actually played in more games in 2025 (16) than 2024 (12) and continued playing at a well above average level. A 6-year starter with 85 career starts, Mailata has consistently played at a high level in his career and, still only going into his age 29 season, I would expect a similar level of play from him in 2026.

One concern on this offensive line is the lack of experienced depth on the interior. Brett Toth, who was decent in four starts in place of Jurgens and Dickerson last season, is no longer with the team, leaving Drew Kendall, a 2025 5th round pick who made one nondescript start as a rookie, and 6th round rookie Micah Morris as their top reserves, with the rest of the depth chart consisting of recent undrafted free agents who have never played a snap. This offensive line is unlikely to be as good as it was a year ago, but there is an argument to be made that they will be better than last season. 

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Feature back Saquon Barkley had a big statistical drop off from 2024 to 2025, going from 2,005 yards and 13 touchdowns on 345 carries (5.81 YPC) to 1,140 yards and 7 touchdowns on 280 carries (4.07 YPC). However, the decline of his blocking was a big part of the issue, as Barkley’s yards per carry after contact only fell from 3.17 to 2.71 and his missed tackle rate actually increased from 17.4% to 18.6%. 

Barkley’s blocking will probably a little better in 2026, but it won’t be as good as it was in 2024 and I don’t expect him to be either, now going into his age 29 season, which is somewhat of an advanced age for a running back, especially for one that has simultaneously missed 27 games in eight seasons in the league and also has 2,184 career touches. He’s been an effective running back in his career, averaging 4.58 yards per carry, but his best days are probably behind him. 

Behind Barkley, the Eagles have Tank Bigsby, who gets a few carries a game when Barkley needs a rest and would get the majority of the carries if Barkley missed time, and Will Shipley, a passing down specialist who comes in for Barkley in some obvious passing situations. In three seasons in the league, Bigsby has shown promise, rushing for 1,254 yards and 11 touchdowns on 281 carries (4.46 YPC), with 3.52 yards per carry after contact, a 26.3% missed tackle rate, and a 48.4% carry success rate, though he does struggle in passing situations with a career 0.42 yards per route run average. 

Shipley, meanwhile, has averaged 0.90 yards per route run in two seasons in the league, while totaling 16 targets and 44 carries. Barkley is a decent pass catcher as well, averaging 1.08 yards per route run in his career, but that has fallen to 0.89 over the past four seasons and the Eagles don’t mind taking him out for Shipley in long yardage situations to keep Barkley fresh. Barkley isn’t what he used to be, but this is definitely not a bad backfield.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Eagles’ defense was not as good in 2025 as it was in 2024, but it was still one of the better defenses in the league, especially after adding Jaelan Phillips in a mid-season trade to replace Josh Sweat, a big loss from the previous off-season, who had 8 sacks, 9 hits, and a 13.5% pressure rate in 16 games in 2024. In 8 games with the team in 2025, Phillips excelled as a pass rusher, with 2 sacks, 7 hits, and a 17.7% pressure rate. 

Phillips was not retained as a free agent this off-season, but the Eagles adequately replaced him by trading for Jonathan Greenard. Over the past three seasons, Greenard has totaled 27.5 sacks, 29 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate in 44 games, while providing solid run defense. Last season, he had 3 sacks. 9 hits, and a 17.4% pressure rate in 12 games. Greenard is still in his late prime in his age 29 season, but injuries have been a concern for him in his career, costing him 23 games in six seasons in the league, with at least two games missed in five of six seasons. Still, he is a welcome addition for this edge defender room.

Greenard will play significant snaps along with top holdovers Jalyx Hunt (694 snaps) and Nolan Smith (452 snaps), who are not as good as Greenard, but are solid players in their own right. Hunt, a 2024 3rd round pick, played 240 nondescript snaps before having a mini breakout season in 2025, struggling a bit against the run, but more than making up for it with 6.5 sacks, 17 hits, and a 15.9% pressure rate. 

Hunt is still unproven, only having done that once, but he’s also only going into his age 25 season and there is probably a better chance that he improves further in 2026 than there is that he regresses back to his rookie year form. Smith, meanwhile, is more of a well-rounded player, providing solid but unspectacular run defense and pass rush, with 9.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 12.7% pressure rate in a part-time role over the past two seasons (35.6 snaps per game). A 2023 1st round pick who is still only going into his age 25 season, Smith could still have further untapped potential.

The Eagles also added Arnold Ebiketie in free agency, a talented situational rusher. He has only played 457 snaps per season and 27.3 snaps per game in his career, but he has 16.5 sacks, 25 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate in 67 games in a part-time role and he hasn’t been a bad run defender either. A 2022 2nd round pick who is still only going into his age 27 season, Ebiketie could potentially handle a larger workload, but in a loaded position group in Philadelphia it is hard to see him getting the chance to do that unless someone misses significant time ahead of him on the depth chart. The Eagles don’t have a true #1 edge rusher, but they should have no problem getting after the quarterback off the edge regardless.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

Another defender the Eagles lost last off-season was Milton Williams, a talented situational interior pass rusher who had 5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 13.2% pressure rate in part-time role in 2024 (500 snaps), who then went on to become one of the better interior defenders in the league in an expanded role in New England last season, but the Eagles were so deep at the interior defender position that other players just played more snaps in his absence last season and they barely missed him. 

Moro Ojomo (388 snaps to 741 snaps) and Jordan Davis (387 snaps to 686 snaps) were the ones that took the biggest step forward in terms of playing time. Ojomo excelled as a situational pass in 2024, not recording a sack in a limited role, but adding 5 hits and a 11.6% pressure rate. In 2025 in a bigger role, his sack total jumped to 6, while adding 4 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate, and his run defense, once a liability, improved a little bit too. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of putting together the season he had last season and it is worth noting he fell to the 7th round in 2023 and probably doesn’t have a higher upside than what he has shown, but he could easily have permanently turned a corner in which case he should remain an above average starter, still only going into his age 25 season.

Davis, meanwhile, was a first round pick in 2022 and the only reason he played just 377 snaps per season in his first three seasons in the league was conditioning issues, as he consistently played above average run defense with decent pass rush when on the field. In 2025, Davis showed up in much better shape and was able to continue his previous level of play across a much bigger snap count as a result. The 6-6 336 pounder is obviously at his best against the run, but he also has a decent career 6.5% pressure rate. Still only in his age 26 season, Davis’ only issue going forward is whether or not he can continually stay in good enough shape to play as many snaps as he did last season.

Jalen Carter, the Eagles’ best interior defender in 2024, was the only interior defender on the team who did not have a better season in 2025, in fact missing five games due to injury and another due to an ejection before the first snap. When on the field though, he was about the same as he always had been, with solid run defense and 3 sacks, 8 hits, and a 10.2% pressure rate. In three seasons in the league, the former 9th overall pick has 13.5 sacks, 25 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate in 44 career games, with just two games missed outside of last season, and, still only going into his age 25 season, he could still have even better days ahead of him.

The one minor concern with this group is depth outside of their top-3, which would only become a serious issue if one of their top-3 missed time with injury. With Carter missing time, Byron Young played 338 snaps, with 187 of them coming in the 6 games Carter missed. Young was a 3rd round pick by the Raiders in 2023, but has shown next to nothing in his career, playing just 99 snaps as a rookie, not making the Raiders final roster in his second season in the league in 2024, spending that whole season on the Eagles practice squad and injured reserve, not playing a snap, and then predictably struggling in his first real action in 2025. 

Still only in his age 26 season, he may theoretically have some untapped potential, but he also could be pushed for his deep reserve role by 2025 4th round pick Ty Robinson, who played just 104 snaps as a rookie, but could take a step forward in year two and at least be an upgrade over Young. The lack of a reliable 4th interior defender is just a minor issue for a position group that has a great top-3 who are all young and talented.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

One upgrade for this defense between 2024 and 2025 was the addition of linebacker Jihaad Campbell in the first round of the draft, who played 711 snaps in 16 games as a rookie and was immediately an above average starter. Now going into his second season in the league, Campbell could see an expanded snap count with Nakobe Dean (403 snaps in 9 games) leaving as a free agent. Campbell pairs with Zack Baun, an All-Pro caliber player in each of the past two seasons, to give the Eagles arguably the best linebacker duo in the league.

Baun, a 3rd round pick by the Saints in 2020, played just 664 snaps in his first four seasons in the league in New Orleans as a hybrid defensive end/linebacker, but he showed promise and more than made good on that promise once arriving in Philadelphia and moving to linebacker full-time. His age is a minor concern, going into his age 30 season, but he could remain at least an above average all-around linebacker even if he does decline somewhat and he also just as easily could have another All-Pro caliber season.

With Nakobe Dean gone, Jeremiah Trotter figures to be the third linebacker. A 2024 5th round pick, Trotter has only played 192 snaps in two seasons in the league due to the talent ahead of him on the depth chart, but he has shown a lot of promise in his limited action and it shouldn’t be a surprise at all if he becomes a solid third linebacker, playing a situational role against the run. Whether or not he could continue being a solid player in an every down role in the case of a major injury to one of their top-2 linebackers remains to be seen, but he at least has the potential to do that. Even with Dean gone and Baun now in his age 30 season, this is still arguably the best linebacking corps in the league.

Grade: A

Secondary

After Jonathan Greenard, the biggest addition on this defense this off-season was cornerback Tariq Woolen. A 5th round pick in 2022, Woolen was immediately an above average starter in his first season in the league, but has struggled to regain that form, only being an average starter in each of the past three seasons in the league. Whether or not he can ever bounce back to his rookie year form remains to be seen, but even if he is only an average starter he should help this team because he is not only replacing Adoree Jackson, who was a liability in 588 snaps as the third cornerback last season, but he is also partially replacing safety Reed Blankenship, who was also a liability in 1,009 snaps last season. 

In base packages, Woolen will start outside opposite Quinyon Mitchell, while Cooper DeJean, previously a full-time cornerback, will become a hybrid player who plays safety in base packages and replaces Blankenship, and then moves to the slot in sub packages. DeJean has developed into a borderline All-Pro caliber player in two seasons in the league since being drafted in the second round in 2024, so it is a little bit risky to change his role, but DeJean’s skill set could translate better to safety than outside cornerback in base packages and he will still play the majority of his snaps on the slot in sub packages, where he is at his best. 

Still in his age 23 season, DeJean could have his best year yet in 2026 and has the talent to be a perennial All-Pro caliber player for years to come. Quinyon Mitchell was also taken in that 2024 draft, in the first round, and he has also developed into a well above average starter, as a traditional outside cornerback. Still only going into his age 25 season, Mitchell could also have his best year yet in his third season in the league in 2026 and also has the talent to become a perennial All-Pro caliber player for years to come. 

Safety Andrew Mukaba will be the fourth starter in base packages, playing safety opposite DeJean. A 2nd round pick in 2025, Mukaba played every down in 11 games (672 snaps) as a rookie, before a season ending broken ankle. He was a bit of a liability, but he could be at least a little bit better in his second season in the league. In sub packages when DeJean moves to the slot, Mukaba will play next to either Marcus Epps or Michael Carter, a pair of underwhelming veteran options. 

Epps started all 34 games between 2022 and 2023, but was a liability both seasons and subsequently played just 426 snaps in the past two seasons. Now going into his age 30 season, he figures to be a liability even if he only plays a sub package role. Carter, meanwhile, was once a decent slot cornerback with the Jets, but he has struggled over the past two seasons and subsequently played just 536 total snaps in 2024 and 2025 combined. Now attempting to make a transition to safety, Carter is still only going into his age 27 season and has some bounce back potential, but it is tough to know what to expect out of a player who hasn’t even been decent since 2023 and is now learning a new position. He will probably be a better option than Epps, but only by default.

Along with the loser of the Epps/Carter competition, other depth options in this secondary include Kelee Ringo, a 2023 4th round pick who has mostly been mediocre across 623 career snaps, and Jonathan Jones, a veteran free agent addition who was a solid starter in his prime, but who has been a liability across snap counts of 712 and 484 over the past two seasons and who now heads into his age 33 season. Having Mitchell and DeJean as their top-2 defensive backs elevates this group significantly and the addition of Tariq Woolen and potential improvement of Andrew Mukaba makes this a less top heavy group than last year, when everyone except DeJean and Mitchell was a liability, but this is still a top heavy group with at least one weak spot in sub packages.

Grade: B+

Kickers

Jake Elliott was once a reliable kicker for the Eagles, adding 19.55 points above average in his first seven seasons in the league from 2017-2023. However, in the past two seasons, he has had back-to-back well below average seasons, costing the Eagles 8.20 points in 2024 and 6.87 points in 2025. This looks like a new trend after two seasons and it seems unlikely he will bounce all the way back to his old form, but Elliott isn’t totally over the hill for a kicker, going into his age 31 season, and could bounce back at least somewhat in 2026. At the very least, the Eagles still seem to believe in him, not adding any competition for him this off-season.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Eagles’ offense should be better coached in 2026 than 2025, when offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo was a liability and probably at least partially caused multiple players to have down seasons. However, new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion is still a relative unknown and the loss of AJ Brown makes this offense much less talented. They also are unlikely to have the same success in close games as last season, when they went 8-4 in one-score games. Their defense looks likely to remain one of the best units in the league and this team still looks like the best in their division, but their offense might once again hold them back from being true contenders.

Prediction: 11-6, 1st in NFC East

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2025 NFC Wild Card Round Pick

San Francisco 49ers (12-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)

The 49ers were statistically the better of these two teams in the regular season. While the Eagles had the edge in yards per play differential, ranking 10th at +0.29 while the 49ers ranked 18th at -0.11, the 49ers had a bigger edge in first down rate differential, ranking 8th at +1.78%, as opposed to 17th at +0.20% for the Eagles, and first down rate differential is more predictive than yards per play differential. 

The Eagles were a much better defensive team, ranking 7th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, as opposed to 27th for the 49ers, but the 49ers were a much better offensive team, ranking 2nd in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, as opposed to 22nd for the Eagles, and offensive efficiency tends to be much more predictive than defensive efficiency. In terms of overall schedule adjusted efficiency, which weights offensive efficiency higher than defensive efficiency, the 49ers have a 3.7-point edge, suggesting this line should favor the visiting 49ers by about 1.5.

Unfortunately, my roster rankings tell a different story, primarily because these two teams are going in a different direction injury wise heading into the post-season. The Eagles’ offense should be better now than it was overall on the season due to the return of right tackle Lane Johnson from a 7-game absence and the Eagles’ defense should be better now than it was overall on the season due to the return of interior defender Jalen Carter from a 6-game absence and the mid-season trade addition of edge defender Jaelan Phillips. On the other hand, the 49ers offense looks likely to be without left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, while their defense, which has already been without its two best players, edge defender Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner, since weeks 3 and 6 respectively, now is expected to be without their next two best linebackers Dee Winters and Tatum Bethune.

That being said, I am still picking the 49ers in this game with the Eagles being 4.5-point favorites because the Eagles have played a lot of close games. Their only multi-score wins this season have come against the Giants, Raiders, and Commanders, who were three of the worst teams in the league. In six matchups with playoff qualifiers, they won by more than 4.5 twice and one of those involved a last second return of a blocked field goal to push the margin of victory from 1 to 7. So in six tries, the Eagles would have had a legitimate cover of a 4.5-point spread just once against playoff caliber teams. Even with the current injury situations of these two teams taken into account, my calculated line is just Philadelphia -2.5. I am not betting on the 49ers for now, but if we get good news on some of the 49ers’ currently questionable players and/or this line moves up when players are ruled out, I could end up betting on the 49ers.

Update: Trent Williams returned to practice today, giving him at least a chance to play this week. Despite that, this line has moved to up +6. I am going to lock in a bet on the 49ers at that number.

Update: I am glad I locked this in at +6 while I could because not only is Williams active, but the Eagles will surprisingly be without Lane Johnson. I am not able to increase this bet at +6, but I am adding a money line play because you can still get the 49ers at more than 2:1 underdogs to win straight up.

San Francisco 49ers 26 Philadelphia Eagles 24 Upset Pick +210

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +6

Confidence: Medium

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders: 2025 Week 16 NFL Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) at Washington Commanders (4-10)

The Eagles don’t have a lot of blowout victories this season, with just two of their nine wins coming by more than seven points, which is relevant, considering this line favors the Eagles by seven. Those two wins by seven points came against the Giants and Raiders, who are among the worst teams in the league. The Commanders have played three games against the Giants and Raiders this season and are 3-0 in those three games, even with backup quarterback Marcus Mariota starting two of those three games. That suggests that, even with Mariota remaining under center, the Commanders are on a different level than the only two teams the Eagles have beaten by more than seven points this season. The Eagles’ two wins by more than seven points also came at home, while this game is in Washington. 

All of that suggests that we are getting some line value with the Commanders as 7-point home underdogs. Unfortunately, I don’t think it is enough for the Commanders to be worth betting, given that they will be playing without talented left tackle Laremy Tunsil in this game for the first time all season, which figures to be a massive loss for this offense. The Commanders are still my pick for pick ‘em purposes, but this is only a low confidence pick.

Update: +7.5 is available in some places. If you can get that, I think the Commanders are bettable.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington Commanders 19

Pick against the spread: Washington +7.5

Confidence: Medium

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles: 2025 Week 13 NFL Pick

Chicago Bears (8-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-3)

This is probably the most confusing line of the week. In other cases when my calculated line is very different from the actual line, I can understand why, but in this case I genuinely don’t understand it. The Eagles have just one win by more than a touchdown this season and it came against a 2-win Giants team. Despite that, the Eagles are favored by a touchdown in this game against the 8-3 Bears. 

The Bears are not as good as their record, going 6-1 in one-score games, but the same can be said of the Eagles. The Bears rank 24th in first down rate differential (-1.92%) and 20th in yards per play differential (-0.36), but the Eagles rank just 19th (-1.24%) and 16th (-0.20) respectively in those two metrics. The Eagles have had the harder schedule, but are only about a point better than the Bears in my schedule adjusted efficiency.

My roster rankings also only have these two teams about a point apart. The Eagles are better since getting Nolan Smith back from injury and since adding Jaelen Phillips via trade, but the Bears seem likely to get their top cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon back from injury. Even if they don’t, the Bears are still worth a big bet at +7 since this figures to be yet another close game for two teams that have played a lot of close games.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago +7

Confidence: High

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2025 Week 6 NFL Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) at New York Giants (1-4)

The Eagles are a tough team to be confident in either way. They are defending Super Bowl Champions and they are 4-1 despite one of the toughest schedules in the league, but they haven’t looked particularly good in any of their games. All five of their games have been decided by seven points or fewer and they rank 24th in first down rate differential (-2.01%) and 28th in yards per play differential (-0.92). Even with their tough schedule factored in, they still rank just 24th in schedule adjusted efficiency.

However, my roster rankings suggest they should be a lot better than that (6th) and it’s worth noting that by far their easiest game of the season, even on the road, so it wouldn’t be surprising if this is when they end up breaking out, as the Giants are just 1-4 and rank 25th in schedule adjusted efficiency and in 26th my roster rankings. However, with this line favoring the Eagles by a full touchdown, we’re not getting any value with them and it’s tough to know what to expect from them, given the mismatch between their talent level and their statistical output, so this is a no confidence pick.

Update: The final inactive list is not good for the Eagles. Jalen Carter is out, while Jermaine Eluemunor is in, after both were listed as questionable. Despite this, this line is still at 7.5 in some places. I would rather pick the Giants +7.5 than Eagles -7, but it’s a no confidence pick either way.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +7.5

Confidence: None

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: 2025 Week 1 NFL Pick

Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)

The Eagles are defending Super Bowl Champions at home in the first game of the season, which tends to be a good spot for teams, going 13-6-1 ATS since 2005. Unfortunately, we have lost significant line value in the last week, with this line moving from Philadelphia -6.5 to -7.5 in the wake of the Micah Parsons trade. Losing Parsons will be a huge loss for the Cowboys, but he was unlikely to play a significant snap count in this game and might not have played at all after a monthlong holdout, so that line movement, crossing over a key number of 7, seems like an overreaction.

As much as Parsons being traded is a big deal, the Eagles lost a lot this off-season as well and are unlikely to be as good as they were down the stretch last season as a result, particularly on defense, where five of the eleven players who played at least 500 snaps for them are no longer with the team, after being a league best unit in 2024. I am still taking the Eagles for pick ‘em purposes, but I can’t bet them confidently as long as the line is a touchdown or more.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -7.5

Confidence: Low

Philadelphia Eagles 2025 NFL Season Preview

Quarterback

In 2022, the Eagles went 14-3 and made the Super Bowl, narrowly losing to the Chiefs. In 2024, the Eagles went 14-3 and won the Super Bowl, blowing out the Chiefs. In between in 2023, the Eagles went 11-6 and lost in the first round of the post-season. The biggest reason for their down year in 2023 was their defense. While their offense went from 3rd in first down rate and 6th in yards per play in 2022 to 6th in first down rate and 13th in yards per play in 2023 to 14th in first down rate and 11th in yards per play in 2024, their defense went from 10th in first down rate allowed and 1st in yards per play allowed in 2022 to 28th in first down rate allowed and 25th in yards per play allowed in 2023 to 1st in first down rate allowed and 1st in yards per play allowed in 2024. 

The Eagles have had some personnel changes over the years but the biggest difference between their 2023 defense and their 2022 and 2024 defense was coaching, as the 2022 Eagles had future Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon as defensive coordinator and the 2024 Eagles had the legendary Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator, while the 2023 Eagles had a combination of Sean Desai and Matt Patricia, who were highly ineffective. The Eagles had some personnel losses this off-season, particularly on defense, which I will get into later, but most importantly they kept Vic Fangio for another year and he should continue getting the most of the players he has.

The Eagles do change offensive coordinators this off-season, with Kellen Moore taking the Saints’ head coaching job this off-season, but the Eagles have had a different offensive coordinator in each of the past three seasons, with current Colts head coach Shane Steichen coordinating their offense in 2022 and the since fired Brian Johnson coordinating their offense in 2023, and the changes haven’t really mattered much. To replace Moore, the Eagles promoted Kevin Patullo and he figures to keep things very similar on offense, particularly since they return 10 of 11 starters from a year ago.

The Eagles were a run heavy team last season, ranking 1st in the NFL in rush attempts with 621 and dead last in the NFL in pass attempts with 448, but that doesn’t mean their passing offense wasn’t effective, as they ranked 7th in yards per pass attempt with 7.85. That number probably would have been higher if Jalen Hurts hadn’t missed most of three games with injury, as Hurts finished the season completing 68.7% of his passes for an average of 8.04 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, good for a 103.7 QB rating that ranked 5th in the NFL.

Hurts benefits significantly from the talent around him on this offense, but has shown he is capable of winning games himself when needed. Over the past three seasons, Hurts has completed 66.7% of his passes for an average of 7.70 YPA, 63 touchdowns, and 26 interceptions in 47 starts. He has only averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game over that stretch, but is also a huge part of the Eagles’ running game, averaging 10.0 carries per game (472 total carries) over that stretch, taking them for 4.23 YPC and 42 touchdowns, while also making life easier for the Eagles’ running backs, as defenses have to worry about Hurts taking off and running himself. Still only in his age 27 season, I would expect Hurts to continue playing at a similar level in 2025 and beyond.

When Hurts missed time with injury last season, he was replaced by Kenny Pickett (42 pass attempts) and Tanner McKee (45 pass attempts). McKee outplayed Pickett, completing 66.7% of his passes for an average of 7.18 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, leading to Pickett being traded to the Browns this off-season. Pickett is the more experienced of the two, as McKee is a 2023 6th round pick who had never played a snap prior to last season, but clearly the Eagles viewed him as having the higher upside long-term. 

The Eagles also added Dorian Thompson-Robinson in the Pickett trade and used a 6th round pick on Kyle McCord, but Thompson-Robinson has a pitiful 45.2 QB rating in five career starts, while McCord is a raw rookie, so McKee should be considered the heavy favorite for the backup job. He’s a projection to a larger role and could struggle if forced into a significant stretch of starts in place of Hurts, who takes more hits than the average quarterback and has only made every start just once in five seasons in the league, but Hurts has also never played fewer than 15 games in a season and, as long as he stays relatively healthy, the Eagles have one of the better quarterback situations in the league.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

Jalen Hurts benefited significantly from having a great receiving corps to throw to last season, as his top-2 wide receivers AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, as well as his top tight end Dallas Goedert, all averaged over two yards per route run at 2.99, 2.11, and 2.20 respectively. Brown and Smith ranked 2nd and 23rd among eligible wide receivers in yards per route run, while Goedert ranked 2nd among eligible tight ends. 

Things could be even better in 2025, as Brown, Smith, and Goedert all missed significant time with injury last season, missing four games, four games, and seven games respectively. In the eight games in which all three played, the Eagles went 8-0. In games where AJ Brown played, the Eagles went 16-1. In games where Devonta Smith played, the Eagles went 15-2. In games where Dallas Goedert played, the Eagles went 12-2. All three have some injury history, but none of them have ever missed as many games as they missed last season and all three have a good chance to be healthier in 2025.

Despite missing four games and playing on a run-heavy offense, Brown still had a 67/1079/7 slash line last season, on just 97 targets. Since entering the league in 2019, Brown ranks 4th in the NFL with 7,026 receiving yards, despite always playing on run heavy offenses, averaging 2.64 yards per route run and 10.1 yards per target. He’s not generally mentioned as one of the top wide receivers in the league, but he is and, if he was on teams that passed more, he would be recognized as such. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025.

In four seasons in the league, Smith has averaged 1.90 yards per route run and 9.10 yards per target, with a 83/1082/7 slash line per 17 games and is still only going into his age 27 season. If Smith played on a tram that passed more and was the #1 option, he would be even more productive and, on the Eagles, he is an overqualified #2 option on a run heavy team. Goedert, meanwhile, has averaged 1.76 yards per route run and 8.58 yards per target, with a 64/747/4 slash line per 17 games in seven seasons in the league. He’s the most injury prone of the three, missing 23 games in seven seasons in the league and missing time in every season aside from his rookie year, and he’s the oldest of the bunch, going into his age 30 season, but he is still an overqualified 3rd option on a run heavy team. 

Feature back Saquon Barkley is also involved in the passing game, ranking 4th on the team with 43 targets, though he did just take them for a 33/278/2 slash line and 0.93 yards per route run. Barkley was a productive pass catcher earlier in his career, but he has now finished below one yard per route run in each of the past three seasons and that has a good chance to continue in 2025. With Brown, Smith, and Goedert as a high-level top-3 and Barkley also involved, the Eagles have little need for other options in the passing game and, if Brown, Smith, and Goedert stay healthier, they will have even less need for other passing game options in 2025. After Barkley, #3 wide receiver Jahan Dotson, #2 tight end Grant Calcaterra, #2 running back Kenneth Gainwell, and #4 wide receiver Johnny Wilson were the only other pass catchers to have at least 10 targets last season, with target totals of 33, 30, 22, and 15 respectively.

Aside from Gainwell, the rest of the bunch remain on the roster. Dotson will probably be the #3 receiver again and he is a 2022 1st round pick of the Commanders who is still only going into his age 25 season, but he has averaged just 0.89 yards per route run in three seasons in the league, with just 0.53 yards per route run in 2024, and there is no guarantee he is any better in 2025. Johnny Wilson, meanwhile, is a 2024 6th round pick who will likely remain as the #4 receiver, due to the lack of a better option, even after he averaged just 0.24 yards per route run as a rookie. His primary competition for the role is probably Anais Smith, a 2024 5th round pick who played just 96 snaps as a rookie. With a strong off-season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Smith move as high up as 3rd on the depth chart, but that is far from a guarantee and, even with a strong off-season, he would be an underwhelming #3 wide receiver.

Calcaterra will face competition for the #2 tight end job from free agent additions Harrison Bryant and Kylen Granson. Both are experienced backup tight ends, playing 435 snaps per season and 390 snaps per season respectively in five seasons in the league and four seasons in the league respectively. Granson has averaged 1.12 yards per route run in his career, as opposed to 1.00 yards per route run for Bryant, but Bryant is the better blocker of the two, which is probably what the Eagles care more about out of a #2 tight end. Calcaterra, meanwhile, is also a capable blocker, who has averaged 1.01 yards per route run, while playing 370 snaps per season in three seasons in the league and he could easily end up keeping his job. This is a highly talented, albeit highly top-heavy receiving corps.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

Feature back Saquon Barkley had a huge statistical season in 2024, becoming the 9th player in NFL history to rush for 2,000+ yards, doing so with 2,005 rushing yards on 345 carries (5.81 YPC), while also rushing for 13 touchdowns. Barkley is obviously a great player, but he wasn’t quite as good as his numbers suggested last season, as he benefited heavily from the talent around him, averaging just 3.17 yards per carry after contact and breaking tackles at a 18.0% rate, which gave him an elusive rating of just 63.7, good for just 22nd running backs and only slightly above his career average of a 51.4 elusive rating.

Barkley will still have a ton of talent around him in 2025, so he has a good chance to continue being heavily productive, but the odds are against him being even close to as productive as he was last season. In NFL history, 32 other running backs have rushed for at least 1,700 yards in a season. Of those 32 running backs, 29 finished with fewer rushing yards the following season and, on average, running backs who rush for 1,700 yards in a season see their rushing total decline by 35.49% and their yards per carry decline by 14.17%. Barkley is still on the short list of running backs who could lead the league in rushing next season, but odds are against him being as good in 2025 as he was in 2024, even with there still being a high level of talent around him.

As I mentioned, #2 running back Kenneth Gainwell is no longer with the team. To replace him, the Eagles signed AJ Dillon, who has only averaged 4.07 YPC on 597 carries in four seasons in the league and who missed all of last season with injury, but he’s been a useful short-yardage back when healthy, as the 6-0 247 pounder has a career 55.6% carry success rate. He also has a decent 1.09 yards per route run average in his career, but the Eagles may prefer 2024 4th round pick Will Shipley as their passing down back. He averaged 1.46 yards per route run as a rookie and, while that came on just 24 routes, he also caught 69 passes in his final two collegiate seasons. Shipley will likely spell Barkley on some passing downs, while Dillon spells him on some early downs and short yardage plays, but Barkley figures to still get the lion’s share of the running back work. Even if he doesn’t have quite as good of a year as he did a year ago, he is still one of the best running backs in the league.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The one starter on offense the Eagles lost this off-season is right guard Mekhi Becton, who had a 75.3 PFF grade in 15 starts last season. He will either be replaced by Tyler Steen or Matt Pryor, both of whom figure to be a downgrade. Steen was drafted in the 3rd round in 2023 with the intention of him being a starter someday, but he hasn’t shown much through two seasons in the league, with a 53.2 PFF grade across 71 snaps as a rookie and a 40.6 PFF grade across 315 snaps last season. He could take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2025, but that’s far from a guarantee and he will need to take a big step forward to even be a capable starter.

Pryor, meanwhile, is coming off of a season in which he had a 69.9 PFF grade in 15 starts, but he’s a one-year wonder, as he only made 24 starts in his first six seasons in the league prior to last season and now he is going into his age 31 season. It seems unlikely he will repeat the best season of his career again in 2025, especially given his age, but he might be a better option than Steen because he is at least proven as a starter in the NFL. Whoever wins the starting job figures to be a significant downgrade from Becton.

The rest of this offensive line remains the same, which is a good thing because the Eagles ranked 6th in both pass block grade and run block grade on PFF last season. The Eagles did allow 45 sacks, 12th most in the NFL, despite ranking just dead last in pass attempts, giving them the 2nd worst sack rate in the league, but that was primarily because Jalen Hurts led the league in time in the pocket, as he moves around and tries to make plays downfield, which has its upsides, but also its downsides. That figures to continue into 2025, but it’s not a fault of the offensive line.

Left tackle Jordan Mailata was the best of the bunch, finishing as PFF’s #1 ranked offensive tackle with a 95.8 PFF grade. He might not quite repeat his career best year again in 2025, but last year’s dominant campaign didn’t come out of nowhere, as he received PFF grades of 87.4, 76.5, and 84.1 in 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively, and he’s still in his prime, only going into his age 28 season. Additionally, even if he isn’t quite as good as last season, the Eagles should still benefit from him likely playing more games this season, after missing five games due to injury last season.

Right tackle Lane Johnson is also coming off of a strong season, receiving a 85.4 PFF grade in 15 starts, his 12th season over 70 on PFF in as many seasons in the league and his 8th season over 80, but he’s now heading into his age 35 season. He hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, but that doesn’t mean he won’t decline in 2025, perhaps significantly, which would have a noticeable effect on this offensive line as a whole. 

At left guard and center, Landon Dickerson and Cam Jurgens return as starters. Both are recent second round picks, Dickerson being selected in 2021 and Jurgens in 2022. Dickerson has improved in every season in the league, going from a 67.2 PFF grade as a rookie to a 67.3 PFF grade in his second season to a 70.0 PFF grade in his third season to a 79.2 PFF grade last season, while making 62 starts over that 4-year stretch, and he is still only in his age 27 season, so he should remain an above average starter. He can also move inside to center if needed in a pinch. 

Jurgens, meanwhile, was the Eagles’ worst starting offensive lineman by default last season, but still had a 67.1 PFF grade in 16 starts in his first season at center, after posting a 63.0 PFF grade in 11 starts at guard in 2023 and barely playing (35 snaps) as a rookie in 2022. Still only in his age 26 season, he could have further untapped potential, but that’s not a guarantee. Like Dickerson, he is a versatile player who can play both center and guard if needed.

For depth, the Eagles will have the loser of the Matt Pryor/Tyler Steen battle at right guard, as well as free agent addition Kendall Lamm, trade acquisition Kenyon Green, and a trio of rookies, 5th round pick Drew Kendall, 6th round pick Cameron Williams, and another 6th round pick Myles Hinton. Lamm has made 44 starts in 10 seasons in the league, including 34 in the past seven seasons, a stretch in which he has finished above 60 on PFF six times, including a 72.7 PFF grade in seven starts last season. He’s now going into his age 33 season and could struggle if forced into an extended starting role by injury, but, as far as swing tackle options go, he’s a pretty good one.

Green, meanwhile, is a bust of a 2022 1st round pick, receiving a 37.7 PFF grade in 14 starts as a rookie and a 38.6 PFF grade in nine starts last season, with a season missed due to injury in between. Only in his age 24 season, it’s possible he still has some untapped upside, but he has a long way to go to even be an adequate starter and is best as a reserve. The rookies, meanwhile, are unlikely to be able to contribute in a significant way in year one, but won’t need to do so, on an overall deep and talented offensive line.

Grade: A

Edge Defenders

While the Eagles had minimal losses on offense this off-season, they did have some significant losses on defense. Of the 11 players who played at least 500 snaps for them on defense last season, four of them are no longer on the team while a fifth is recovering from a devastating injury that could cost him most or all of the 2025 season, among other more minor losses. The Eagles did add some replacements, but, overall, the players they lost are significantly better than the players they added. 

On top of that, the Eagles are likely to have more injuries on defense than they had a year ago, when they had the second fewest adjusted games lost to injury of any defense. The Eagles are starting from a high base point on this side of the ball, leading the league in both yards per play allowed and first down rate allowed, so they have a good chance to still play at an above average level, but they should be noticeably worse.

Arguably the most impactful loss on defense for the Eagles this off-season is edge defender Josh Sweat, who led Eagles edge defenders in snaps played with 622 and led the entire Eagles defense in sacks with 8. In addition to those sacks, he also added 9 hits and a 13.2% pressure rate, while also playing at an above average level against the run, leading to him receiving an overall grade of 75.7 from PFF. Additionally, the Eagles traded Bryce Huff, who had a 68.4 PFF grade across 285 snaps last season, and lost Brandon Graham to retirement, after he had a 78.6 PFF grade across 311 snaps last season.

Only two Eagles edge defenders who played a snap last season return to the team in 2025, Nolan Smith and Jalyx Hunt, who both figure to see expanded roles from the 546 snaps and 240 snaps respectively that they played last season. Both are talented players who have the upside to do well in expanded roles, but both are also unproven young players. Smith, a 2023 1st round pick, struggled with a 50.5 PFF grade across 187 snaps as a rookie, before taking a big step forward in his second season in the league, with a 76.1 PFF grade, playing well as a run defender and adding 6.5 sacks, 3 hits, and a 11.2% pressure rate as a pass rusher. Hunt, meanwhile, was a 3rd round rookie last season and had a 64.3 PFF grade. Both could take a step forward in 2025, but that’s not a guarantee.

The biggest outside addition the Eagles made at the edge defender position is first round pick Jihaad Campbell, but he is a hybrid off ball linebacker/edge defender who is also very raw, so he might not see a big snap count on the edge right away. Additionally, the Eagles added veterans Josh Uche and Azeez Ojulari, but both are underwhelming options. Uche, a 2020 2nd round pick, has finished above 60 on PFF as a pass rusher in all five seasons in the league, while totaling 20.5 sacks, 20 hits, and a 15.2% pressure rate in 64 career games, but he has been limited to just 21.4 snaps per game with a max of 373 snaps played in a season. That’s largely due to his poor run defense, but it’s also due to him missing 20 games in five seasons in the league. He could be a useful situational pass rusher, but probably won’t play a significant snap count and could miss more time with injury.

Ojulari is also a former 2nd round pick, selected by the Giants in 2021, and he’s still only going into his age 25 season, but he hasn’t shown much in four seasons in the league, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of the four seasons, with his career best 62.4 PFF grade coming on just 230 snaps in 2022. Additionally, he’s been limited to just 348 snaps per season over the past three seasons, while missing 22 total games over that stretch. He could still have untapped upside, but it’s far from a guarantee he will ever develop into even a solid rotational player. This edge defender group has some upside, but overall looks significantly worse than a year ago.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Eagles also lost interior defender Milton Williams, who received a 70.1 PFF grade across 500 snaps last season, struggling against the run, but excelling as a pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 7 hits, a 13.2% pressure rate, and a 90.4 PFF pass rush grade, which was 2nd best among eligible interior defenders. To replace him, the Eagles will likely give more playing time to Jordan Davis (387 snaps) and Moro Ojomo (388 snaps) and they used a 4th round pick on Ty Robinson to give themselves additional depth.

Davis is a 2022 1st round pick and has been impressive on an expanded snap count in the past, with a 70.5 PFF grade across 519 snaps in 2023, before taking a back seat to Milton Williams in 2024, when Davis also fell to a 65.9 PFF grade. Davis also had a 71.4 PFF grade across 225 snaps as a rookie, so he has shown plenty of potential, but the Eagles have thus far been hesitant to give the big 6-6 336 pounder too much playing time. 

Only in his age 25 season, perhaps this is the season Davis finally puts it all together, but that’s not a guarantee. Ojomo, meanwhile, is a 2023 7th round pick who flashed potential with a 68.0 PFF grade in a limited role last season, in the first significant action of his career, particularly excelling as a pass rusher, not recording a sack, but finishing with 5 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate in a limited role. He could continue playing at a similar level in an expanded role in 2025, though that’s also not a guarantee.

Jalen Carter remains as the top interior defender and the 2023 9th overall pick has developed into one of the best interior defenders in the league, with a 89.0 PFF grade across 562 snaps as a rookie and a 74.1 PFF grade across 830 snaps last season. He’s a capable run defender, but primarily excels as a pass rusher, with 10.5 sacks, 17 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate in 32 career games. Still only going into his age 24 season, Carter may just be scratching the surface on his potential and looks likely to be a high level interior defender for years to come. Overall, this position group has a lot of upside, but outside of Jalen Carter, the rest of this group has significant downside as well.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

One player the Eagles prioritized keeping this off-season is linebacker Zach Baun, who they gave a 3-year, 51 million dollar deal to keep him off the open market, making him the 4th highest paid off ball linebacker in the league. Baun finished last season as PFF’s 1st ranked linebacker with a 90.1 PFF grade across 938 snaps, but he is a complete one-year wonder, as the 2020 3rd round pick played a total of 664 snaps in his first four seasons in the league in New Orleans, while never finishing with a PFF grade better than 71.1, including two seasons below 60. Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio clearly knows how to get the most out of Baun, but it still seems unlikely that Baun will be as good two years in a row, even if he has permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average every down player.

Nakobe Dean played well as the other starting linebacker, with a 75.3 PFF grade across 857 snaps, but a torn patellar tendon suffered in the playoffs has his entire 2025 season in jeopardy, given the timing of the injury and that is arguably the most serious knee injury a player can sustain. Oren Burks, who played well in his absence, wasn’t retained this off-season, leaving the starting job until Dean returns either to the rookie Jihaad Campbell or 2024 5th round pick Jeremiah Trotter, who flashed a ton of potential as a rookie with a 85.1 PFF grade across 104 snaps, but who is still a projection to a much larger role. With Baun likely to regress at least somewhat and Dean coming off of a major injury with no timetable to return, this linebacking corps looks likely to be significantly worse in 2025 than 2024.

Grade: A-

Secondary

In addition to Vic Fangio being hired as defensive coordinator, the other big reason why the Eagles’ defense was significantly better in 2024 than 2023 was the addition of a pair of talented cornerbacks in the first two rounds of the draft. First round pick Quinyon Mitchell played well on the outside with a 72.0 PFF grade across 954 snaps, while second round pick Cooper DeJean excelled as primarily a slot cornerback, with a 82.7 PFF grade across 626 snaps. Both should continue playing at a high level in 2025, but the Eagles did lose their other starting outside cornerback Darius Slay (698 snaps), as well as top reserves Isaiah Rodgers (329 snaps) and Avonte Maddox (345 snaps). Maddox struggled with a 56.3 PFF grade and won’t really be missed, but Slay and Rodgers had PFF grades of 67.6 and 76.0 respectively and will be missed.

To replace them, the Eagles signed veteran Adoree Jackson in free agency. Jackson has had an up and down and injury plagued career. The 2017 1st round pick received PFF grades of 75.4 and 73.0 in his first two seasons in the league, while not missing a game, and he went on to finish above 70 on PFF in five of his first six seasons in the league from 2017-2022, but from 2019-2022 he missed 29 games in four seasons and those injuries seemed to catch up with him in 2023, when he missed another three games and dropped off significantly when on the field, finishing with a 49.4 PFF grade. 

His poor 2023 season led to Jackson being a reserve with the Giants to start the 2024 season, but he did work his way back into the starting lineup down the stretch and, overall, he had a bounce back year with a 69.0 PFF grade, albeit across just 426 snaps, with another three games missed due to injury. Now going into his age 30 season, Jackson’s best days are almost definitely behind him and he is likely to miss more time with injury again in 2025, but his poor 2023 season now looks like a fluke and he could remain at least a capable starter when healthy in 2025, even if not at his best.

Jackson could face competition for his starting job from 2023 4th round pick Kelee Ringo, who flashed potential with a 65.8 PFF grade across 113 snaps last season, after also having a 64.5 PFF grade across 198 snaps as a rookie, but most likely Ringo will remain a reserve and, if he has to make significant starts due to injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, he could struggle, despite the potential he has displayed, as he is a projection to a larger role.

The Eagles could give Cooper DeJean an expanded role, playing him outside more, rather than keeping him as a pure slot specialist, but he probably wouldn’t be nearly as good outside as he is on the slot and the Eagles might need him to play safety in base packages more than they need him to play outside cornerback. Safety CJ Gardner-Johnson, who had a 75.1 PFF grade across 90.7 snaps last season, wasn’t retained this off-season. 

To replace him, the Eagles used a second round pick on Andrew Mukuba, who will compete with 2023 3rd round pick Sydney Brown, who has flashed potential in two seasons in the league, but only across 414 total snaps. It’s likely neither will be as good as Gardner-Johnson was and it may be for the best for DeJean to play safety in base packages and then move to the slot in sub packages, when either Brown or Mukuba would come in to play safety. DeJean would be a projection to his new role as a hybrid safety/slot cornerback, but he still has a huge upside and having him on the field every down could easily benefit this defense.

Reed Blankenship remains as the other starting safety. He went undrafted in 2022, but has turned into an above average starting safety, flashing potential with a 75.2 PFF grade as a rookie and continuing that into a starting role over the past two seasons, with PFF grades of 73.4 and 74.4 respectively. Still only in his age 26 season, he should remain an above average safety in 2025. Like the rest of this defense, the Eagles’ secondary is unlikely to be as good in 2025 as they were in 2024, due to off-season losses, but this still looks like an above average group.

Grade: B+

Kicker

Jake Elliott struggled mightily in 2024 and was the Eagles’ achilles heel, costing the Eagles 8.20 points compared to an average kicker last season, the 5th most points below average in the NFL, but that kind of came out of nowhere, as Elliott had previously accounted for 19.64 points above average in his previous three seasons. Still only going into his age 30 season, it seems unlikely that Elliott’s down year in 2024 is a sign of a permanent decline and he could easily bounce back in 2025. The Eagles clearly believe in him still, not adding any competition for him this off-season. 

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Eagles are not as talented as they were a year ago due to off-season losses, particularly on defense, but they are starting from the base point of being the best team in the league last season, so they should remain a high level team and compete to make it back to the Super Bowl out of the NFC. At the very least, they still look like the best team in their division, though they do have a much tougher schedule than the Commanders.

Prediction: 12-5, 1st in NFC East

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles: Super Bowl LIX Pick

Kansas CIty Chiefs (17-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (17-3) in Super Bowl LIX

The Chiefs are small favorites for the second straight game, favored by 1.5 points in the Super Bowl against the Eagles after being favored by 1.5 points against the Bills in the AFC Championship. Against the Bills, I bet on the Chiefs, citing the Chiefs’ history when they’re not big favorites, and their history in close games. Overall, the Chiefs are 51-19 in games decided by seven points or fewer when Patrick Mahomes starts, including 11-0 this season, and they are 20-6-1 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than three when Mahomes starts, including 8-0 ATS in the post-season. Because of that, the Chiefs are close to an automatic bet in those spots, unless there is a good reason not to pick them.

However, this game against the Eagles is different and there are a couple good reasons to bet against the Chiefs this time around. For one, the Eagles have been just as good in close games as the Chiefs in recent years, going 20-5 over the past three seasons in games decided by seven points or fewer when Jalen Hurts starts and finishes the game. On top of that, while the Bills and Chiefs were pretty evenly matched, the Eagles look like a significantly better team, so this game might not even end up being that close.

The Eagles had a significant edge in both first down rate differential (+2.78% vs. +1.82%) and yards per play differential (+0.91 vs. -0.06), this season, excluding both teams’ meaningless week 18 game. The Eagles also are in a much better injury situation now than they have been for much of the season. The Chiefs have recently gotten back key players in starting wide receiver Marquise Brown (15 games missed), starting edge defender Charles Omenihu (11 games missed), and starting cornerback Jaylen Watson (11 games missed) and they have significantly improved their offensive line by moving Joe Thuney from left guard to left tackle, which is a more important position. However, that pales in comparison to the Eagles.

All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games missed), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), and top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) all missed significant time this season and have since returned, while talented edge defender Brandon Graham (9 games missed) seems likely to return. Having Hurts healthy is probably the most important one, as the Eagles have won 12 straight games that he has started and finished.

In the current injury situations these two teams are in, the Eagles have a 5-point edge in my roster rankings. The Chiefs obviously have the edge at quarterback, but aside from that, there isn’t a single other position group where the Chiefs have the edge. The Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts edge is significant, but not nearly enough to make up for the fact that the Eagles are a much better team overall. 

In a lot of ways, this reminds me of the Chiefs’ Super Bowl matchup against the Buccaneers a few years ago, when the Chiefs got to the Super Bowl on the strength of a lot of close victories (9-0 in one-score games that season), before running into a much better team and getting blown out. Even if this game does end up being relatively close, the Chiefs wouldn’t necessarily have the edge in a close game either, given Jalen Hurts recent track record in close games. I wouldn’t make a big wager on the Eagles because of the Chiefs’ history as underdogs or small favorites in the playoffs, but I think we’re getting too much line value with the Eagles to pass on betting on them.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Kansas City Chiefs 22 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +1.5

Confidence: Medium

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 NFC Championship Pick

Washington Commanders (14-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (16-3)

The Eagles have been the slightly better of these two teams statistically, winning two more games and finishing the season with a first down rate differential of +2.64% and a yards per play differential of +0.77, as opposed to +0.98% and +0.15 respectively for the Commanders. However, the Eagles’ big edge is their injury situation. While the Commanders will be without their top offensive lineman Sam Cosmi in this game, after being relatively healthy throughout the regular season, the Eagles are much healthier than they have been for much of the season. Most notably, key players like All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), and top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) all have returned after missing significant time with injury this season. 

In the injury situations these two teams are currently in, the Eagles have a 6-point edge over the Commanders in my roster rankings, with an edge in every position group, except quarterback. The Jayden Daniels over Jalen Hurts edge is significant, but not nearly enough to make up for the fact that the Eagles are a much better team overall. There isn’t quite enough here for the Eagles to be worth betting as 6-point home favorites, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Washington Commanders 23

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 NFC Divisional Round Pick

Los Angeles Rams (11-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (15-3)

Both of these teams came into the playoffs much healthier than they were at stretches this season. The Rams almost beat the Lions in Detroit week 1, but lost top wide receiver Puka Nacua in that game and were just 2-4 when he returned to the lineup in week 8. From week 8 on, the Rams won 8 of 10 games, excluding a meaningless week 18 game in which their starters didn’t play. During that 8 wins in 10 games stretch, the Rams had a 4-game stretch from week 13 to week 16 in which they had their expected starting five offensive linemen together for the first time all season, a stretch in which they won all 4 games, including an upset victory over the Bills.

Even excluding the Rams’ meaningless week 18 game, they still finished the regular season with middling numbers in terms of yards per play differential (-0.27) and first down rate differential (+0.71%), but from week 8 to week 17, those numbers were -0.01 and 1.78% respectively and in their four games with a healthy offensive line those numbers were +0.07 and +3.29%. Now essentially fully healthy in the post-season, the Rams dismantled the Vikings in round 1, winning the yards per play battle by +1.94 and the first down rate battle by +3.52%.

The Eagles also have underwhelming season-long numbers in terms of yards per play differential and first down rate differential, finishing the regular season at +0.87 and 2.91% respectively, excluding their meaningless week 18 game, but that is still significantly better than the Rams’ season-long numbers and the Eagles have had several key players miss significant time with injury who have since returned, far more than even the Rams. That list includes All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) and talented edge defender Bryce Huff (5 games).

In their current injury situations, the Eagles have a 6-point edge over the Rams in my roster rankings and look like a significantly better team. The Eagles are favored by 6 points at home in this game, so there isn’t quite enough here for them to be bettable, especially since the Rams are one of the better road teams in the league due to their lack of homefield advantage in Los Angeles (+1.9 average point differential at home, +1.1 on the road since moving in 2016), but the Eagles still look like the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Los Angeles Rams 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: Low