Eagles

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles: 2023 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Picks, 2023 Week 2 NFL Picks, Eagles, NFL Picks, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (0-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)

The Vikings lost at home week 1 to a Buccaneers team that was expected to be mediocre at best coming into this season. The Vikings were favored by 5-6 points in that game depending on when you bet the line, so that loss was a surprise to many people, but it didn’t come out of nowhere. The Vikings finished last season 13-4, but needed an unprecedented 11-0 record in one-score games to do so, which history suggested they wouldn’t come close to repeating in 2023 (0-1 so far this season). 

The Vikings’ point differential last season was just -3 and because of a weak schedule their DVOA was even worse, ranking 27th, both of which are much more predictive year-to-year than winning percentage in one-score games is. On top of that, their roster looks worse going into 2023 than it did a year ago, losing key players like edge defender Za’Darius Smith, interior defender Dalvin Tomlinson, cornerback Patrick Peterson, middle linebacker Eric Kendricks, and feature back Dalvin Cook this off-season, without adding comparable replacements. 

Despite the Vikings’ loss last week, this line has actually moved in their favor since the early line a week ago, with the Vikings going from 7-point underdogs in this game in Philadelphia to now being just 6-point underdogs. The Eagles looked underwhelming in a near loss in New England last week, losing the first down rate and yards per play battle and only prevailing because they won the turnover battle and had a defensive touchdown, which are both very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. Additionally, the Eagles will be without talented cornerback James Bradberry, starting safety Reed Blankenship, and starting running back Kenneth Gainwell in this game.

However, the Eagles still had a big DVOA edge over the Vikings in week 1 (17.1% vs. -4.1%), even before you take into account that the Eagles probably faced a tougher opponent than the Vikings did, and even with their injuries the Eagles still have a big roster edge over the Vikings, who have injuries of their own, with center Garrett Bradbury out and left tackle Christian Darrisaw and Marcus Davenport both considered highly questionable on a short week. With all of that considered, my calculated line has the Eagles favored by 12 points, so we’re getting a lot of line value with Philadelphia at only -6. 

My calculated line might sound high, but the Vikings lost by at least 17 points in two of the three games they played against teams who finished with double digit wins last season, including the Eagles, and the Vikings are probably worse this year than they were a year ago, especially with their current injuries. On top of that, the Vikings are in a bad spot this week, traveling on a short week to face a superior non-divisional opponent. Non-divisional road underdogs are just 27-46 ATS on Thursday Night Football all-time when both teams are on short rest. Between that and the line being too short, I like the Eagles a lot this week. If this was a Sunday game, I probably would make it my Pick of the Week, but I don’t like locking in my Pick of the Week this early so I am going to keep this as “just” a high confidence pick. Either way, I don’t expect this one to be close.

Philadelphia Eagles 34 Minnesota Vikings 23

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: High

Philadelphia Eagles 2023 NFL Season Preview

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Quarterback

The Eagles finished the 2020 season with a 4-11-1 record and, with a payroll that made them the 3rd highest paid team in the league in terms of average annual salary, the Eagles looked like they had a long rebuild in front of them. Instead, they have rebuilt this team on the fly, making it back to the post-season the very next season in 2021 and then taking another step forward all the way to a Super Bowl appearance and a narrow loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last season, after a 14-3 regular season in which they secured the NFC’s #1 seed.

How the Eagles have been able to do this is complex, but, understandably, it starts at the quarterback position. Carson Wentz had a disappointing 2020 season, completing just 57.4% of his passes for an average of 6.00 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions, while getting benched for raw rookie Jalen Hurts late in the season, but the Eagles were still able to trade him for a package that included a first round pick, with the Indianapolis Colts still bullish on the former MVP candidate’s upside and bounce back potential. 

The Eagles then chose not to use the 6th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft on a replacement quarterback like Justin Fields or Mac Jones, instead giving the reins to Hurts, even though he struggled in limited action as a passer in his rookie season, completing just 52.0% of his passes for an average of 7.17 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, and then using the 6th overall pick to trade down, accumulating another first round pick the following year, and then selecting talented wide receiver Devonta Smith with the 10th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Between the first round pick from the Wentz trade, the extra first rounder they got from moving down from the 6th pick in 2021, and their own first round pick, the Eagles entered the 2022 NFL Draft with a trio of first rounders, one of which they traded for another talented wide AJ Brown, another they traded in a package that got them another first round pick in 2023, and a third they used themselves to select promising defensive player Jordan Davis. In 2023, again armed with multiple first round picks as a result of their trade down the following year, the Eagles then selected another pair of promising defensive prospects, Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith, useful additions for a defense that had a lot of free agents this off-season and, for cap reasons, were unable to keep all of them. 

Of course, none of this would have led to a Super Bowl appearance if the Eagles didn’t end up being right about Jalen Hurts, who has improved remarkably as a passer since struggling as a rookie, completing 61.3% of his passes for an average of 7.28 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions in 2021 and then 66.5% of his passes for an average of 8.05 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in 2022, while continuing to be a threat on the ground, accumulating a 5.17 YPC average and 26 touchdowns on 367 career carries. His dual threat ability has led to him receiving overall grades of 80.8 and 85.9 respectively from PFF over the past two seasons. With Hurts still only going into his age 25 season, the sky’s the limit in terms of his upside and, at the very least, he should remain one of the best quarterbacks in the league for years to come.

Unfortunately, it will become tougher for the Eagles to continue surrounding Hurts with talent in the future, with Hurts getting a big raise on a 5-year, 255 million dollar extension ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal in 2023, making him the 2nd highest paid quarterback in the league in terms of average annual salary. Hurts obviously played at a high level in his own right last season, but a big part of why this team got to where they got to last season was that they also had one of the most talented rosters in the league around the quarterback. 

Injuries are more of a concern for Hurts than most quarterbacks, just because mobile quarterbacks take more hits and, as a result, have more opportunities to get hurt. Hurts might also not age as well as most quarterbacks as athleticism tends to decline quicker than anything, but the Eagles won’t have to worry about that for a long-time and, even as much as he runs, he’s definitely not a guarantee to get hurt every season. The Eagles do seem to want to be prepared for that though, spending above average on a backup quarterback to get Marcus Mariota and his 74 career starts on a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal. 

Mariota hasn’t been great as a starter in his career, with a 89.3 QB rating, but he’s one of the best backups in the league and would give the Eagles at least a capable quarterback for a stretch if Hurts got hurt. Mariota also has somewhat of a similar skill set to Hurts, with the ability to take off and run as well as pass, averaging 5.77 YPC with 17 touchdowns on 349 career carries, though Hurts obviously is by far the more explosive and more talented player, in both aspects of the game. With Hurts being one of the best starters in the league and Mariota being one of the best backups, it’s hard to find problems with this quarterback room, even if the Eagles are paying a lot for it.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, wide receivers Devonta Smith and AJ Brown have been acquired using two of the several recent first round picks the Eagles have had and they are a big part of why this team has been able to rebuild in a hurry, becoming one of the best wide receiver duos in the league immediately in their first season together in 2023. Both players exceeded 1,100 yards receiving, one of two wide receiver duos in the league to do so (Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle), and they were even more impressive than that seems, as the Eagles had the 10th fewest pass attempts in the league and Brown and Smith finished 3rd and 18th in the league among wide receivers respectively with 2.59 and 1.98 yards per route run respectively, while receiving overall grades of 88.0 and 81.0 respectively from PFF. 

For Brown, it was nothing new as he has been very efficient in similar run heavy offenses for his entire career, since entering the league as a 2nd round pick in 2019, averaging 2.61 yards per route run and a 73/1184/9 slash line per 17 games in his first three seasons in the league prior to 2022, with PFF grades of 84.0, 90.1, and 84.4 respectively. Still very much in his prime in his age 26 season, I would expect more of the same from Brown in 2023 and for years to come. Smith, meanwhile, had a 64/916/5 slash line and 1.77 yards per route run as a rookie before taking a step forward statistically in year two in 2022 and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he improved further in year three in 2023. Even if he doesn’t, he should remain one of the best #2 wide receivers in the league and Brown and Smith should remain arguably the best wide receiver duo in the league.

Despite this offense being run heavy and Brown and Smith dominating targets, there was still enough leftover in this passing game for tight end Dallas Goedert to record a 55/702/3 slash line with a 1.82 yards per route run average, even though he missed five games with injury. That was nothing new for Goedert, who also had a 56/830/4 slash line on 76 targets in 15 games in 2021, in his first season in the league as an every down starter, and he impressed as a part-time player early in his career, averaging 1.59 yards per route run in his first three seasons in the league, after going in the 2nd round in 2018, while exceeding 70 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, including two seasons over 80. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Goedert should continue playing at a similar level and could have his most productive year yet if he can avoid suffering a significant injury like he did last year.

With Brown, Smith, and Goedert all in the same receiving corps on a team that likes to run the ball a lot anyway, there isn’t much need for many other pass catchers, but the Eagles don’t have bad depth at wide receiver. Quez Watkins was their #3 receiver last season and, while he only had a 33/354/1 slash line and 0.80 yards per route run, that was in large part because he only had 51 targets and he had a 43/647/1 slash line and 1.51 yards per route run in a bigger role in 2021, when he received 62 targets. The 2020 6th round pick is an underwhelming option, but he’s not a bad #3 receiver, the Eagles won’t need much out of him, and the Eagles added competition for him, free agent acquisition Olamide Zaccheaus, who could prove to be an upgrade.

Zaccheaus went undrafted in 2019, but he has a decent 1.40 yards per route run average in his four seasons in the league. He’s never gotten a ton of playing time, but he did see a career high 61 targets and a career high 737 snaps last season, which he took for a 40/533/3 slash line and 1.47 yards per route run. He would probably have a smaller role with the Eagles, even if he does win the #3 receiver job, but he’s a decent 3rd option to have at the wide receiver position. The Eagles would obviously miss Devonta Smith or AJ Brown significantly if either missed time with injury, but Watkins and Zaccheaus wouldn’t be bad replacement options if they had to play a larger role in the absence of an injured wide receiver.

At tight end, Jack Stoll remains as the #2 tight end. He averaged just 0.57 yards per route run and had just a 11/123/0 slash line on 14 targets last season, but he played 572 snaps total and was decent as a blocker, which is what they primarily need him to do. Undrafted in 2021, Stoll had a similar season as a rookie, on 331 snaps. The Eagles also have veteran Dan Arnold, who can’t block, but who has a 1.63 yards per route run average for his career as a part-time tight end, and they have 2022 6th round pick Grant Calcaterra, who was decent on 227 snaps as a rookie and could have earned a larger role in year two as a rookie. There won’t be a lot of targets to go around for backup tight ends unless Goedert gets hurt, but they don’t have bad tight end depth either. This is a dominant receiving corps, led by arguably the best top trio of pass catchers in the league.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Eagles didn’t utilize their running backs in the passing game much last season, as passing down back Kenneth Gainwell only had 29 targets, which he took for a 23/169/0 slash line and 0.88 yards per route run, while lead back Miles Sanders only took 26 targets for a 20/78/0 slash line and 0.29 yards per route run. However, that could be changing this season. Sanders is gone and, while one of his replacements Rashaad Penny likely won’t be much use in the passing game (0.67 yards per route run), the Eagles also added D’Andre Swift from the Lions, who has a career 1.53 yards per route run, and Gainwell still remains as well. All three of those backs could end up having roles on this offense.

Penny figures to be the primary early down back, as long as he’s healthy, but that has not consistently been the case throughout his first five seasons in the league. The 2018 1st round pick has a very impressive 5.69 YPC average for his career, but he’s never exceeded 119 carries in a season, while missing 40 games total in five years in the league. He was a worthwhile flier for the Eagles on a 1-year deal worth just 1.35 million and, if he can stay healthy, he has a lot of upside as an early down back, still only in his age 27 season, but I wouldn’t count on him lasting the whole season.

Swift has early down potential as well, in addition to being a talented pass catcher, averaging 4.62 YPC in three seasons in the league since going in the 2nd round in 2020, but injuries have also been a concern for him, as he’s missed at least three games in each of his three seasons in the league. He’s also a nice addition to this backfield and figures to be useful for the Eagles as long as he stays on the field, but he’s also a strong candidate to miss more time with injury and the Lions probably won’t want to give him too many carries, in order to preserve him for passing downs.

Kenneth Gainwell is probably third on this depth chart now, but he could still find himself with a role, given how injury prone Penny and Swift are. A 5th round pick in 2021, Gainwell was better as a pass catcher as a rookie, with a 33/253/1 slash line on 50 targets and a 1.39 yards per route run average, and he has a 4.39 YPC average on 121 carries in two seasons in the league as well, so he’s not a bad 3rd option, though he’s obviously a projection to a larger role as a ball carrier. 

The Eagles also still have veteran Boston Scott, who has a 4.29 YPC average on 282 carries and a career 1.11 yards per route run average in five seasons in the league, since going in the 6th round in 2018. Depending on injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, he could also find himself with somewhat of a role at some point this season. The Eagles don’t have a true top back in this backfield, but there is a lot of upside, especially if Penny and/or Swift can stay healthier than they’ve been in the past.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

One area where the Eagles are unlikely to be quite as good in 2023 as they were a year ago is on the offensive line (1st in team pass blocking grade on PFF, 5th in team run blocking grade on PFF) and there are several reasons for that. For one, they were among the healthiest offensive lines in the league a year ago, with their expected starting five offensive linemen combining to miss just three starts, and they are unlikely to be that lucky again. The Eagles also won’t be as deep on the offensive line this season, losing starting right guard Isaac Seumalo, who was PFF’s 7th ranked guard with a 75.2 PFF grade in 17 starts last season, as well as Andre Dillard, who only played 37 snaps as a reserve last season, but could have replaced Seumalo if he had been kept. 

Instead, the Eagles will likely replace Seumalo with 2022 2nd round pick Cam Jurgens, who is primarily a center, but who will also likely be their best option at right guard this season, despite only playing 35 snaps as a rookie. The Eagles also used a 3rd round pick in this year’s draft on the versatile Anthony Steen, who could also push to start at right guard, even as a rookie, and they still have useful reserve Jack Driscoll, who has been solid while making 16 starts as a spot starter over the past three seasons (1 at left tackle, 10 at right tackle, and 5 at right guard) since going in the 4th round in 2020. However, the Eagles depth is not what it’s been upfront in recent years.

Making matters worse, the Eagles have a pair of key offensive linemen who are now well over 30 and, as a result, could decline in 2023, with center Jason Kelce going into his age 36 season and right tackle Lane Johnson going into his age 33 season. Kelce could very well be entering the final season of his career in 2023, with Cam Jurgens originally drafted to be a long-term replacement for him, but Kelce still finished with a 88.3 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2022, his 9th season over 70 and his 6th season over 80 in the past 10 seasons, so, even if he does decline this season, he still has a good chance to remain at least an above average starter. However, any noticeable decline from him would have a negative effect on the rest of this offensive line, considering how much they have depended on him for years.

Johnson isn’t quite as old as Kelce and has also had a very impressive career, with 10 seasons over 70 and 6th seasons over 80 on PFF in 10 seasons in the league, but he too could decline noticeably this season and, even if he remains an above average starter, that noticeable decline would also have a negative impact on this offensive line as a whole. Johnson has also had consistent durability issues throughout his career, missing time in each of the past seven seasons, with 31 games total missed over that stretch, including two starts last season, two of the three starts that Eagles starting offensive linemen missed in 2022. He figures to miss at least some time with injury again at some point this season.

Fortunately, the other two starters on this offensive line are both relatively young and in their prime. Left tackle Jordan Mailata went undrafted in 2018 and had actually never played American football before the Eagles gave him a chance, but that chance proved to be worth it, as Mailata became a starter in his third season in the league in 2020 and has made 40 starts in three seasons since, while receiving grades of 70.3, 87.4, and 76.5 respectively from PFF. Still only in his age 26 season, I would expect him to continue at least being an above average left tackle for years to come, and his upside is among the best in the NFL. 

Dickerson, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2021 and has received identical 67.3 grades from PFF in each of his first two seasons in the league, doing so on 13 starts as a rookie and then 17 starts in his second season in the league in 2022. Now going into his third season in the league, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Dickerson took a step forward and had the best year yet of his career in 2023. This is still a strong offensive line, but between off-season losses, the fact that they’ll likely have more injuries this year, and the fact that a couple of their best offensive linemen are well over 30 and could decline, I wouldn’t expect this group to be quite as good as a year ago.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned, the Eagles had a lot of free agents on defense this off-season and, for cap reasons, were unable to retain them all. In fact, of the nine Eagles defenders who played at least 700 snaps in 2022, seven of them hit free agency this off-season, with five of them going elsewhere this off-season. The Eagles didn’t do a bad job of replacing all that lost talent though and, even if regress significantly on defense this season, they are coming off of a year in which they ranked 6th in DVOA, so they have a lot of room to regress and still be an above average unit.

At the interior defender position, both starters Fletcher Cox (712 snaps) and Javon Hargrave (711 snaps) were free agents this off-season. Cox was retained this off-season on a 1-year, 10 million dollar deal, but Hargrave signed with the 49ers, after posting a 78.2 PFF grade last season, while Cox is going into his age 33 season and coming off of a career worst year (56.4 PFF grade), so it’s not a surprise that the Eagles used one of their first round picks on an interior defender for the second straight year, taking Jalen Carter 9th overall, after taking Jordan Davis 13th overall in last year’s draft. 

Davis flashed a lot of potential on 225 rookie year snaps in 13 games (71.4 PFF grade) and figures to have a much bigger role in year two, while Carter is talented enough to make an immediate impact and has the upside to develop into one of the better interior defenders in the league long-term, as does Davis. They will both play significant roles this season, alongside Cox, who is clearly on the decline, going from 6 straight seasons of PFF grades over 80 from 2014-2019, to a 74.1 PFF grade in 2020, a 66.7 PFF grade in 2021, and his career worst year in 2022, especially struggling against the run. He’ll likely play a smaller snap count after exceeding 700 snaps played in 9 of the past 10 seasons and he could benefit from that, but he’s clearly not the player he used to be and could continue struggling.

The Eagles also have 2021 3rd round pick Milton Williams, who struggled with a 49.0 PFF grade on 456 snaps as a rookie, but took a big step forward in year two, receiving a 72.6 PFF grade on 396 snaps. It’s possible Williams stays inconsistent and regresses in year three, but he also could continue playing well in what should be a bigger role, with Cox on the decline and the younger players taking over most of the snap load at this position. There’s plenty of upside here, but a lot of downside as well, if the young players prove they are not ready for bigger snap counts.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Eagles also used a first round pick in this year’s draft on an edge defender, taking Nolan Smith 30th overall, not because the Eagles lost any key players at the edge defender position, but because long-time edge defender Brandon Graham, who still played 474 snaps last season, is now heading into his age 35 season and could be nearing the end. Graham still excelled last season though, with a 89.8 PFF grade, his 9th season over 80 in the past 11 seasons, especially excelling as a pass rusher, with 11 sacks, 5 hits, and a 16.3% pressure rate that exceeds even his impressive career 14.7% pressure rate.  

Graham’s performance was especially impressive because, in addition to his age, he was also coming off of a 2021 season in which he missed all but 50 snaps due to a torn achilles. His 2022 snap count was his lowest in a healthy season since 2012 and it could be even lower this season with Smith being added, but the former 2010 first round pick could continue playing at a high level as a rotational player, even if he declines a little and isn’t quite as good as a year ago. 

Graham could also drop off significantly, but the Eagles are pretty well prepared for that with Smith being added to a group that already has Josh Sweat (587 snaps) and Haason Reddick (816 snaps), who received PFF grades of 86.6 and 81.1 respectively last season, while recording 16 sacks, 12 hits, and a 15.2% pressure rate and 11 sacks, 9 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate respectively. For Reddick, it was more of the same as his previous two seasons, dating back to the 2017 first round pick’s breakout 2020 campaign, in which he had 12.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 13.6% pressure rate, followed by 11 sacks, 11 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate in 2021. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023.

For Sweat, on the other hand, it was a career best year for him, especially as a pass rusher, but he had previously had PFF grades of 70.2 and 76.1 on snap counts of 422 and 654 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, so his strong season didn’t come totally out of nowhere. Still only in his age 26 season, I would expect the 2018 4th round pick to continue being at least an above average edge defender, with the upside to continue playing at the high level he played at last season. 

The Eagles also still have Derek Barnett, another former first round pick (2017) who has played significant snap counts in the past, averaging 649 snaps per season from 2019-2021, and who is still only in his age 27 season, but he has mostly been a middling player, with PFF grades in the 50s and 60s throughout his career, he is coming off of a torn ACL that ended his 2022 season after 12 snaps, and he is mostly still on the roster because his contract makes it hard to move on. He figures to be buried on the depth chart in what figures to be a loaded edge defender group again, with first round pick Nolan Smith added to a group with a top trio that totaled 38 sacks, 26 hits, and a 14.4% pressure rate in 2022.

Grade: A

Linebackers

The linebacker position is the position where the Eagles lost the most this off-season. Kyzir White and TJ Edwards were both every down players who played 843 snaps and 1,040 snaps respectively and both played well, especially Edwards, who ranked 2nd among off ball linebackers with a 84.8 PFF grade, while White ranked above average at 65.0. Both are no longer with the team and their likely replacements will almost definitely be significant downgrades, with 2022 3rd round pick Nakobe Dean expected to take over a starting role, despite playing just 38 snaps as a rookie, and free agent acquisition Nicholas Morrow being a mediocre option, who has finished below average on PFF in four of five healthy seasons in the league, on an average of 701 snaps per season. 

The Eagles don’t have much in the way of other options though, nor do they have adequate depth. Shaun Bradley was just a 6th round pick in 2020 and has played just 134 defensive snaps thus far in his career. Davion Taylor went in the 3rd round that year, but struggled mightily on 283 total snaps in his first two seasons in the league, before spending his entire third season in the league on the practice squad, not playing a single defensive snap. The Eagles’ linebacking corps figures to be a liability this year, a year after they were a strength.

Grade: C

Secondary

The Eagles also lost both of their starting safeties from last season, but that’s not as big of a deal because Marcus Epps and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson finished with middling grades of 56.3 and 63.9 respectively on PFF. Gardner-Johnson got attention for his league leading six interceptions, but he also gave up a lot of big plays and missed a lot of tackles, so he won’t be missed as much as his interception total would suggest. To replace Epps and Gardner-Johnson, the Eagles signed ex-Steeler Terrell Edmunds and used a 3rd round pick on Illinois’ Sydney Brown, who figures to compete with their top reserves from a year ago, Reed Blankenship and Marcus Epps, for the other starting job opposite Edmunds.

Edmunds was a first round pick by the Steelers in 2018 and he has made 75 starts in five seasons in the league, but he has mostly been a middling starter, finishing above 60 on PFF in all five seasons, while also never exceeding 70.9 in a season. Edmunds should continue being at least a decent starter in 2023, so he shouldn’t be a downgrade from either of the Eagles’ starting safeties last season, and he has the potential to be better than both were a year ago.

At the other safety spot, meanwhile, Blankenship has shown the most potential of the bunch thus far, posting a 75.8 grade on 292 snaps last season, but that’s a really small sample size for a 2022 undrafted free agent, so he’s obviously a projection to a larger role. Wallace, meanwhile, went in the 4th round in 2020, but has finished with grades in the 50s on PFF in all three seasons in the league, on an average of 185 snaps played per season, while the rookie Brown could easily struggle if forced into a significant rookie year role. One of the Eagles’ safety spots could be a liability, but that wouldn’t be a big difference from a year ago.

At cornerback, the Eagles kept all of their key players from a year ago, even though their top two cornerbacks James Bradberry and Darius Slay both could have left the team this off-season, with the former being re-signed as a free agent on a 3-year, 38 million dollar deal and the latter nearly being a cap casualty at a 17.5 million dollar scheduled salary, before agreeing to a long-term 3-year, 42 million dollar extension to lower his cap hit. Bradberry and Slay posted grades of 74.1 and 73.1 respectively on PFF, but they are going into their age 30 and age 32 seasons respectively, so there’s some potential for decline.

For Bradberry, it was also only the 2nd season in seven seasons in the league in which he has surpassed 70 on PFF. He’s started 108 of 109 games played in those seven seasons, while exceeding 60 on PFF every year, but he hasn’t consistently shown a higher level of play. Between that and his age, I wouldn’t expect him to be as good again in 2023, though he should remain at least a capable starter, barring an unexpected massive decline. Slay, meanwhile, has exceeded 70 on PFF in 7 of the past 9 seasons, with 3 seasons over 80, including most recently a 2021 season in which he had a 81.3 grade, but he is a couple years older than Bradberry, so the potential for an aged related decline is more likely. Either way, it seems unlikely that both players will be as good as they were a year ago again in 2023, but they should still be a solid starting duo.

The Eagles also still have Avonte Maddox, who missed 8 games with injury and was limited to only 457 snaps as the #3 cornerback, but who posted an impressive 71.3 PFF grade. The 2018 4th round pick was inconsistent early in his career, but that was in part because he kept moving back and forth from slot cornerback to safety and, over the past two seasons as purely a slot cornerback, he has exceeded 70 on PFF in back-to-back seasons, doing so on 729 snaps in 2021. Only in his age 27 season, he should be able to have a similar season in 2023, assuming he can stay healthy this time around.

In Maddox’s absence, Josiah Scott struggled with a 58.4 PFF grade on 390 snaps, but the Eagles did fortify their depth this off-season by signing former Cleveland Browns cornerback Greedy Williams. Williams’ 1-year, 1.35 million dollar deal is only a flier, but it could be a good one, as the 2019 2nd round pick has shown flashes, but has missed 27 games with injury in four seasons in the league and, as a result, has failed to develop, finishing above 60 on PFF just once. 

In the final year of his rookie deal in 2022, Williams was limited to just 105 snaps as a reserve and that’s what he figures to be in Philadelphia, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but he’s only going into his age 26 season and could have some untapped potential if he can finally stay healthy. This secondary might not be quite as good as a year ago with Slay and Bradbury aging, but this should still remain a solid unit.

Grade: B

Conclusion

There are reasons to expect the Eagles not to be as good as a year ago, as they lost significant talent on defense and are unlikely to have the same unlikely luck as they had on offense a year ago, when they had the 4th fewest offensive adjusted games lost to injury. However, they were 14-1 last season before Jalen Hurts got injured, so, even if they regress, they are regressing from a very high point, and their conference competition has gotten even weaker this off-season, so the Eagles should have a pretty easy path to another high win total and multiple playoff wins. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 14-3, 1st in NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Super Bowl LVII Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Eagles, NFL Picks, Super Bowl LVII Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (16-3) in Super Bowl LVII

The Chiefs have the slight edge in weighted DVOA over the Eagles entering this game (34.4% vs. 28.9%), but the Chiefs were also the healthier team for most of this team, averaging a SIC score that was about two points higher than the Eagles throughout the year, while in this game, the Eagles are the healthier team, possessing an edge of about two points in SIC score, in large part due to questions around the health of quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ ankle. That’s enough to nullify the Chiefs slight edge in weighted DVOA, but I would still take the Chiefs for pick ‘em purposes as small underdogs at +1.5. 

My numbers have this game about as close to even as you can get, with the Chiefs possessing the slight edge in terms of likelihood of victory. This line is so small though and, if this were a regular game, I would not recommend any bet, and I wouldn’t recommend an against the spread bet either way, but for the Super Bowl, a small bet on the Chiefs as small money line underdogs is appropriate, as the Chiefs should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game.

Kansas City Chiefs 30 Philadelphia Eagles 29 Upet Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Kansas CIty +1.5

Confidence: Low

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (13-1) at Dallas Cowboys (10-4)

The Eagles have lost quarterback and likely MVP favorite Jalen Hurts for this game with injury, but all hope is not lost in this critical divisional battle in Dallas, for several reasons. For one, the Eagles are far more than just Jalen Hurts. As well as Hurts has played, this team is 13-1, ranks 1st in point differential (+143), and 3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency (+6.29), and they could not have done that without a strong supporting cast. In fact, in terms of my roster rankings, the Eagles actually have the most non-quarterback talent of any team in the league.

The Eagles’ talented supporting cast is in large part due to the fact that, even with Hurts out, the Eagles are still one of the healthier teams in the league, with 20 of their expected 22 starters on offense and defense playing this week, including talented tight end Dallas Goedert, who is notably making his return from a 5-game absence this week. Given how late in the season it is, that’s remarkably healthy. The Eagles also have one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league in Gardner Minshew, who is a better option than several other regular starters around the league. 

Between having a starting caliber backup and a dominant supporting cast, the Eagles should still have more than enough talent to at least compete with the Cowboys in this game, ranking 3rd in the NFL in my roster rankings even with Hurts out, actually ahead of the Cowboys, who rank 7th in my roster rankings, as well as ranking 9th in schedule adjusted efficiency (+3.17). The Eagles are also more likely to play harder in this game than the Cowboys, as good teams tend to do when forced to play with a backup quarterback. 

The Cowboys, meanwhile, will have another game four days after this one on Thursday Night Football, a spot in which favorites cover at just a 43.2% rate, and they may relax a little bit against a backup quarterback, which they can’t afford to do, given how talented the rest of the Eagles’ roster is. Despite that, the Cowboys are 4.5-point favorites in this game, a pretty high number, given that about 3 out of 10 games are decided by four points or fewer. My calculated line actually has this as a toss up, so I love the value we’re getting with the Eagles, who still have a great chance to win and pull the upset even with Minshew. The Eagles are my Pick of the Week.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Dallas Cowboys 23 Upset Pick +180

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +4.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (12-1) at Chicago Bears (3-10)

The Eagles lead the league with a +14 turnover margin, which is not a predictive stat week-to-week. That would normally make them overrated, but they also rank 3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is predictive, and they have the best team in my roster rankings, so the turnover margin is not the only reason they are winning games. The Bears, meanwhile, rank dead last in schedule adjusted efficiency, while they have a better offense now than they had earlier this season with Justin Fields improving as the season goes on, they’re also without their two best wide receivers Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool and their defense has been horrendous since trading Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn and losing Eddie Jackson to injury. 

Overall, this is a matchup between one of the best and one of the worst teams in the league, so, even with this line at 8.5, the Eagles are still undervalued this week. They have seven double digit wins this season, a trend that dates back to last season when they also had seven, even though they weren’t as talented as they are this season. The Eagles are in kind of a bad spot with a much tougher game against the Cowboys on deck, but I think this line already prices that in somewhat and, even still, the Eagles are significantly undervalued. Without another good option this week, the Eagles are my Pick of the Week.

Philadelphia Eagles 34 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -8.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) at New York Giants (7-4-1)

The Giants are 7-4-1, but that is a misleading record, as all seven wins have come by one score, with just two coming against teams that are currently better than 5-8. Meanwhile, all four of their losses have come by 7 points or more, which is relevant with this line favoring the Eagles by 7. As a result of their close margins of victory and bigger margins of defeat, the Giants have just a -7 point differential, despite a relatively easy schedule, leading to them ranking just 25th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 4 points below average. The Eagles, meanwhile, rank 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 6 points above average and 10 points above the Giants. 

The Eagles also frequently win by margins that would at least push this 7-point spread, with 8 wins by 7 points or more, a trend that actually goes back to last season, when they had 7 such victories, even when they weren’t as good as they are this season. The Giants will also be without a pair of key defenders this week, missing top cornerback Adoree Jackson and stud interior defender Leonard Williams, while the Eagles are relatively close to full strength for how late in the season it is. My roster rankings give the healthier Eagles a 14-point edge, so I like their chances of beating the Giants by a pretty convincing margin, even in New York. The Eagles are worth a big play at -7 and a smaller play if you have to take them at -7.5.

Philadelphia Eagles 28 New York Giants 16

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -7

Confidence: High

Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (7-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)

The Titans are 7-4, but their wins haven’t been that impressive. Their only win against a team that is .500 or better right now came against the Commanders, who are 7-5 now, but were just 1-4 when they were starting Carson Wentz against the Titans, and all of their wins have been close, with several that could have gone either way. Only two of their wins have come by more than a touchdown and neither win was as impressive as that suggests, as they needed a defensive touchdown to push the margin to 9 against the Colts, while their 10-point win over the Packers came against a team in a terrible spot, playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 2-22 ATS all-time. 

The Eagles are an obvious step up in competition and have much more in common with the four teams that have beaten them than the seven teams they have beaten. The Eagles aren’t as good as their 10-1 record, as they’ve benefitted from a league best +13 turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week, but they also rank 5th in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is predictive week-to-week, so, even if they’ve benefitted from turnovers, it’s hard to argue they’re not at least one of the top few teams in the league. The Titans, meanwhile, rank 28th in schedule adjusted efficiency and, even if they’re not as bad as that suggests, the Eagles should be favored by more than 4.5 points at home against them. My calculated line is Philadelphia -9.5, so we’re getting good line value with the Eagles, enough for a big bet.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -4.5

Confidence: High

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (4-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)

The Packers are 4-7, a year after going 13-4, but their drop off isn’t all that surprising. Despite their record last season, the Packers finished just 10th in point differential and 11th in overall efficiency, even with an MVP season from Aaron Rodgers who, as good as he is, was no guarantee to play at quite the same level in 2022, now in his age 39 season. Add in the loss of by far their top wide receiver Davante Adams this off-season and some regression was to be expected from them, especially on offense.

In many ways, things have gone how you might expect, given the circumstances. The Packers’ defense has remained middling, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency in 2021 and 20th in 2022, but their offense has fallen off significantly, falling from 4th in offensive efficiency a year ago to 15th this season, while their horrendous special teams that ranked dead last efficiency a year ago has only been slightly better this year, ranking 29th. All in all, the Packers rank just 23rd in overall efficiency when adjusted for schedule, about 2.5 points below average, and they’ve been worse in recent weeks, since losing a pair of key defenders, Rashan Gary and De’Vondre Campbell, for an extended period of time.

The Packers have also been especially bad on the road this year, going 1-5 with a -37 point differential away from Lambeau, as opposed to 3-2 with a -4 point differential at home, which is nothing new for them, as they have consistently underperformed on the road with Aaron Rodgers, whose QB rating drops 10 points on the road, far above the league average. Despite that, the Packers are only 6.5-point underdogs in Philadelphia, where the Eagles have won by more than a touchdown in four of their five home games.

The Eagles aren’t quite as good as their 9-1 record, as they’ve benefitted from a league best +12 turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week, but they also rank 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 5.5 points above average, which is predictive, and they are the top team in my roster rankings, so, even if they’ve benefitted from turnovers, it’s hard to argue they’re not at least one of the top few teams in the league. Given that, this line is way too low, as my calculated line favors the Eagles by 11, even before taking into account Aaron Rodgers’ relative struggles on the road. The Packers seem to be a little overrated based on the name value of their quarterback, while the Eagles are getting great value at -6.5. This is my top pick this week.

Philadelphia Eagles 30 Green Bay Packers 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5-1)

The Eagles lost their first game of the season last week at home against the Washington Commanders, but that was primarily because the Commanders converted 13 of 22 on third and fourth downs and won the turnover battle by two, allowing Washington to win despite losing the first down rate battle by 8.09% and the yards per play battle by 1.54. Losses like that tend to be a complete fluke, as first downs and yards tend to be much more predictive than turnover margins and third and fourth downs. 

Even after losing the turnover battle last week, the Eagles still lead the league in turnover margin, having a +15 turnover margin across their 8-0 start, and, while turnover margin isn’t predictive, the Eagles also rank 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive, and they rank even higher in my roster rankings, which they lead, in part due to the fact that they are one of the healthiest teams in the league. They also have history on their side, as teams tend to bounce back in a big way after a big upset loss like the Eagles had last week (11-point favorites), with teams covering at a 57.7% rate after a loss as favorites of 10 points or more.

The Eagles’ loss last week moved this line from favoring the Eagles by 9.5 to favoring them by 6.5, a big swing, and one that was not justified, as my calculated line still has the Eagles favored by 9.5 points, even before taking into account that they’re in a great spot to bounce back after getting upset last week. The Colts pulled the upset in Las Vegas last week, but they still rank just 24th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 3.5 points below average, and I’m still skeptical of interim head coach Jeff Saturday long-term. The Colts could also be without starting right tackle Braden Smith after he tweaked his back in practice on Friday and my calculated line would increase if he didn’t play, as he’s arguably their best offensive lineman. There isn’t another game I like more than this one this week, so I’m locking in the Eagles at -6.5 as my Pick of the Week.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Indianapolis Colts 16

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Washington Commanders (4-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-0)

The Eagles have benefited from a +15 turnover margin en route to their 8-0 start, which is by far the best in the league, but also not something that is predictive long-term. However, the Eagles still rank 6th in schedule adjusted efficiency, four points above average, and they have the most talented roster in the league in my roster rankings as well. They are favored by 11 points at home this week against the Commanders, which is a lot, but we’re actually still getting a little bit of line value with the Eagles at that number. 

The Commanders are 4-5, but their four wins came by 14 points combined and they are a well below average team overall, ranking 24th in point differential at -33 and 20th in schedule adjusted efficiency, 1.5 points below average, while being 4.5 points below average in my roster rankings. My calculated line is Philadelphia -13.5, so there isn’t nearly enough here for the Eagles to be worth betting, but I’m somewhat confident in their ability to cover this large spread for pick ‘em purposes.

Philadelphia Eagles 26 Washington Commanders 13

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -11

Confidence: Low