Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Super Bowl LVII Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (16-3) in Super Bowl LVII

The Chiefs have the slight edge in weighted DVOA over the Eagles entering this game (34.4% vs. 28.9%), but the Chiefs were also the healthier team for most of this team, averaging a SIC score that was about two points higher than the Eagles throughout the year, while in this game, the Eagles are the healthier team, possessing an edge of about two points in SIC score, in large part due to questions around the health of quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ ankle. That’s enough to nullify the Chiefs slight edge in weighted DVOA, but I would still take the Chiefs for pick ‘em purposes as small underdogs at +1.5. 

My numbers have this game about as close to even as you can get, with the Chiefs possessing the slight edge in terms of likelihood of victory. This line is so small though and, if this were a regular game, I would not recommend any bet, and I wouldn’t recommend an against the spread bet either way, but for the Super Bowl, a small bet on the Chiefs as small money line underdogs is appropriate, as the Chiefs should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game.

Kansas City Chiefs 30 Philadelphia Eagles 29 Upet Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Kansas CIty +1.5

Confidence: Low

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (13-1) at Dallas Cowboys (10-4)

The Eagles have lost quarterback and likely MVP favorite Jalen Hurts for this game with injury, but all hope is not lost in this critical divisional battle in Dallas, for several reasons. For one, the Eagles are far more than just Jalen Hurts. As well as Hurts has played, this team is 13-1, ranks 1st in point differential (+143), and 3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency (+6.29), and they could not have done that without a strong supporting cast. In fact, in terms of my roster rankings, the Eagles actually have the most non-quarterback talent of any team in the league.

The Eagles’ talented supporting cast is in large part due to the fact that, even with Hurts out, the Eagles are still one of the healthier teams in the league, with 20 of their expected 22 starters on offense and defense playing this week, including talented tight end Dallas Goedert, who is notably making his return from a 5-game absence this week. Given how late in the season it is, that’s remarkably healthy. The Eagles also have one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league in Gardner Minshew, who is a better option than several other regular starters around the league. 

Between having a starting caliber backup and a dominant supporting cast, the Eagles should still have more than enough talent to at least compete with the Cowboys in this game, ranking 3rd in the NFL in my roster rankings even with Hurts out, actually ahead of the Cowboys, who rank 7th in my roster rankings, as well as ranking 9th in schedule adjusted efficiency (+3.17). The Eagles are also more likely to play harder in this game than the Cowboys, as good teams tend to do when forced to play with a backup quarterback. 

The Cowboys, meanwhile, will have another game four days after this one on Thursday Night Football, a spot in which favorites cover at just a 43.2% rate, and they may relax a little bit against a backup quarterback, which they can’t afford to do, given how talented the rest of the Eagles’ roster is. Despite that, the Cowboys are 4.5-point favorites in this game, a pretty high number, given that about 3 out of 10 games are decided by four points or fewer. My calculated line actually has this as a toss up, so I love the value we’re getting with the Eagles, who still have a great chance to win and pull the upset even with Minshew. The Eagles are my Pick of the Week.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Dallas Cowboys 23 Upset Pick +180

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +4.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (12-1) at Chicago Bears (3-10)

The Eagles lead the league with a +14 turnover margin, which is not a predictive stat week-to-week. That would normally make them overrated, but they also rank 3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is predictive, and they have the best team in my roster rankings, so the turnover margin is not the only reason they are winning games. The Bears, meanwhile, rank dead last in schedule adjusted efficiency, while they have a better offense now than they had earlier this season with Justin Fields improving as the season goes on, they’re also without their two best wide receivers Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool and their defense has been horrendous since trading Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn and losing Eddie Jackson to injury. 

Overall, this is a matchup between one of the best and one of the worst teams in the league, so, even with this line at 8.5, the Eagles are still undervalued this week. They have seven double digit wins this season, a trend that dates back to last season when they also had seven, even though they weren’t as talented as they are this season. The Eagles are in kind of a bad spot with a much tougher game against the Cowboys on deck, but I think this line already prices that in somewhat and, even still, the Eagles are significantly undervalued. Without another good option this week, the Eagles are my Pick of the Week.

Philadelphia Eagles 34 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -8.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) at New York Giants (7-4-1)

The Giants are 7-4-1, but that is a misleading record, as all seven wins have come by one score, with just two coming against teams that are currently better than 5-8. Meanwhile, all four of their losses have come by 7 points or more, which is relevant with this line favoring the Eagles by 7. As a result of their close margins of victory and bigger margins of defeat, the Giants have just a -7 point differential, despite a relatively easy schedule, leading to them ranking just 25th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 4 points below average. The Eagles, meanwhile, rank 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 6 points above average and 10 points above the Giants. 

The Eagles also frequently win by margins that would at least push this 7-point spread, with 8 wins by 7 points or more, a trend that actually goes back to last season, when they had 7 such victories, even when they weren’t as good as they are this season. The Giants will also be without a pair of key defenders this week, missing top cornerback Adoree Jackson and stud interior defender Leonard Williams, while the Eagles are relatively close to full strength for how late in the season it is. My roster rankings give the healthier Eagles a 14-point edge, so I like their chances of beating the Giants by a pretty convincing margin, even in New York. The Eagles are worth a big play at -7 and a smaller play if you have to take them at -7.5.

Philadelphia Eagles 28 New York Giants 16

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -7

Confidence: High

Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (7-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)

The Titans are 7-4, but their wins haven’t been that impressive. Their only win against a team that is .500 or better right now came against the Commanders, who are 7-5 now, but were just 1-4 when they were starting Carson Wentz against the Titans, and all of their wins have been close, with several that could have gone either way. Only two of their wins have come by more than a touchdown and neither win was as impressive as that suggests, as they needed a defensive touchdown to push the margin to 9 against the Colts, while their 10-point win over the Packers came against a team in a terrible spot, playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 2-22 ATS all-time. 

The Eagles are an obvious step up in competition and have much more in common with the four teams that have beaten them than the seven teams they have beaten. The Eagles aren’t as good as their 10-1 record, as they’ve benefitted from a league best +13 turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week, but they also rank 5th in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is predictive week-to-week, so, even if they’ve benefitted from turnovers, it’s hard to argue they’re not at least one of the top few teams in the league. The Titans, meanwhile, rank 28th in schedule adjusted efficiency and, even if they’re not as bad as that suggests, the Eagles should be favored by more than 4.5 points at home against them. My calculated line is Philadelphia -9.5, so we’re getting good line value with the Eagles, enough for a big bet.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -4.5

Confidence: High

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (4-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)

The Packers are 4-7, a year after going 13-4, but their drop off isn’t all that surprising. Despite their record last season, the Packers finished just 10th in point differential and 11th in overall efficiency, even with an MVP season from Aaron Rodgers who, as good as he is, was no guarantee to play at quite the same level in 2022, now in his age 39 season. Add in the loss of by far their top wide receiver Davante Adams this off-season and some regression was to be expected from them, especially on offense.

In many ways, things have gone how you might expect, given the circumstances. The Packers’ defense has remained middling, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency in 2021 and 20th in 2022, but their offense has fallen off significantly, falling from 4th in offensive efficiency a year ago to 15th this season, while their horrendous special teams that ranked dead last efficiency a year ago has only been slightly better this year, ranking 29th. All in all, the Packers rank just 23rd in overall efficiency when adjusted for schedule, about 2.5 points below average, and they’ve been worse in recent weeks, since losing a pair of key defenders, Rashan Gary and De’Vondre Campbell, for an extended period of time.

The Packers have also been especially bad on the road this year, going 1-5 with a -37 point differential away from Lambeau, as opposed to 3-2 with a -4 point differential at home, which is nothing new for them, as they have consistently underperformed on the road with Aaron Rodgers, whose QB rating drops 10 points on the road, far above the league average. Despite that, the Packers are only 6.5-point underdogs in Philadelphia, where the Eagles have won by more than a touchdown in four of their five home games.

The Eagles aren’t quite as good as their 9-1 record, as they’ve benefitted from a league best +12 turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week, but they also rank 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 5.5 points above average, which is predictive, and they are the top team in my roster rankings, so, even if they’ve benefitted from turnovers, it’s hard to argue they’re not at least one of the top few teams in the league. Given that, this line is way too low, as my calculated line favors the Eagles by 11, even before taking into account Aaron Rodgers’ relative struggles on the road. The Packers seem to be a little overrated based on the name value of their quarterback, while the Eagles are getting great value at -6.5. This is my top pick this week.

Philadelphia Eagles 30 Green Bay Packers 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5-1)

The Eagles lost their first game of the season last week at home against the Washington Commanders, but that was primarily because the Commanders converted 13 of 22 on third and fourth downs and won the turnover battle by two, allowing Washington to win despite losing the first down rate battle by 8.09% and the yards per play battle by 1.54. Losses like that tend to be a complete fluke, as first downs and yards tend to be much more predictive than turnover margins and third and fourth downs. 

Even after losing the turnover battle last week, the Eagles still lead the league in turnover margin, having a +15 turnover margin across their 8-0 start, and, while turnover margin isn’t predictive, the Eagles also rank 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive, and they rank even higher in my roster rankings, which they lead, in part due to the fact that they are one of the healthiest teams in the league. They also have history on their side, as teams tend to bounce back in a big way after a big upset loss like the Eagles had last week (11-point favorites), with teams covering at a 57.7% rate after a loss as favorites of 10 points or more.

The Eagles’ loss last week moved this line from favoring the Eagles by 9.5 to favoring them by 6.5, a big swing, and one that was not justified, as my calculated line still has the Eagles favored by 9.5 points, even before taking into account that they’re in a great spot to bounce back after getting upset last week. The Colts pulled the upset in Las Vegas last week, but they still rank just 24th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 3.5 points below average, and I’m still skeptical of interim head coach Jeff Saturday long-term. The Colts could also be without starting right tackle Braden Smith after he tweaked his back in practice on Friday and my calculated line would increase if he didn’t play, as he’s arguably their best offensive lineman. There isn’t another game I like more than this one this week, so I’m locking in the Eagles at -6.5 as my Pick of the Week.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Indianapolis Colts 16

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Washington Commanders (4-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-0)

The Eagles have benefited from a +15 turnover margin en route to their 8-0 start, which is by far the best in the league, but also not something that is predictive long-term. However, the Eagles still rank 6th in schedule adjusted efficiency, four points above average, and they have the most talented roster in the league in my roster rankings as well. They are favored by 11 points at home this week against the Commanders, which is a lot, but we’re actually still getting a little bit of line value with the Eagles at that number. 

The Commanders are 4-5, but their four wins came by 14 points combined and they are a well below average team overall, ranking 24th in point differential at -33 and 20th in schedule adjusted efficiency, 1.5 points below average, while being 4.5 points below average in my roster rankings. My calculated line is Philadelphia -13.5, so there isn’t nearly enough here for the Eagles to be worth betting, but I’m somewhat confident in their ability to cover this large spread for pick ‘em purposes.

Philadelphia Eagles 26 Washington Commanders 13

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -11

Confidence: Low

Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (7-0) at Houston Texans (1-5-1)

A week ago on the early line, the Eagles were favored by 9 points in this matchup with the Texans in Houston, but this line has since shifted all the way up to 14. Normally I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements like that because they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play, but in this case, I think the original line was always too low and the line movement was needed for this line to be around the correct number.

The Eagles may not be the best team in the league, despite being the league’s last undefeated team at 7-0, as they have benefited significantly from a +14 turnover margin (+8 more than any other team), which is not predictive week-to-week, while ranking just 5th in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive. However, they are still one of the best teams in the league any way you look at it, while the Texans are arguably the worst team in the league, ranking dead last in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 10 points below average and 4 points worse than any other team in the league.

The Texans were similarly bad last season too, actually finishing 13 points below average and 5 points worse than any other team in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency. They’re a more talented team this season than they were last season, but not significantly so and they are missing several key players with injury right now, including edge defender Jonathan Greenard, wide receiver Nico Collins, and interior defender Maliek Collins. Without those three, my roster rankings have them about seven points below average. 

Overall, I have the Texans eight points below average, giving us a calculated line of Philadelphia -14.5, with the Eagles about 8.5 points above average. Obviously we’ve lost all line value with the Eagles in the past week because of the significant line movement, but they should still be the right side for pick ‘em purposes, in what should be a blowout. I can’t take the Eagles with any confidence at such a high number, but, either way, I don’t expect this game to be close.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Houston Texans 16

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -14

Confidence: None

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-0)

The Eagles are the league’s last remaining undefeated team, but they’ve been very reliant on the turnover margin, leading the league by far with a +12 turnover margin. That’s a concern because turnovers are not really predictive week-to-week and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive, the Eagles rank just 5th, ranking 13th, 7th, and 25th on offense, defense, and special teams respectively. That’s still impressive, but it’s not as impressive as their record and puts them outside the top few teams in the league.

The Eagles are also in a tough spot here having to turn around again and play on Thursday Night Football next week. Favorites cover at just a 42.3% rate before Thursday Night Football and the Eagles, favored by 10.5, could easily take their foot off the gas in the second half and allow a backdoor cover, even if they do manage to get a big lead. We’re not getting much line value with the Steelers, with my calculated line having them as 10 point underdogs, but that would change if TJ Watt ends up making his return this week from a 6-game absence, which seems more likely than not at this point. If that happens and this line doesn’t shift drastically, I will strongly consider a bet on the Steelers.

Philadelphia Eagles 26 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +10.5

Confidence: Low