Tennessee Titans (7-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)
The Titans are 7-4, but their wins haven’t been that impressive. Their only win against a team that is .500 or better right now came against the Commanders, who are 7-5 now, but were just 1-4 when they were starting Carson Wentz against the Titans, and all of their wins have been close, with several that could have gone either way. Only two of their wins have come by more than a touchdown and neither win was as impressive as that suggests, as they needed a defensive touchdown to push the margin to 9 against the Colts, while their 10-point win over the Packers came against a team in a terrible spot, playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 2-22 ATS all-time.
The Eagles are an obvious step up in competition and have much more in common with the four teams that have beaten them than the seven teams they have beaten. The Eagles aren’t as good as their 10-1 record, as they’ve benefitted from a league best +13 turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week, but they also rank 5th in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is predictive week-to-week, so, even if they’ve benefitted from turnovers, it’s hard to argue they’re not at least one of the top few teams in the league. The Titans, meanwhile, rank 28th in schedule adjusted efficiency and, even if they’re not as bad as that suggests, the Eagles should be favored by more than 4.5 points at home against them. My calculated line is Philadelphia -9.5, so we’re getting good line value with the Eagles, enough for a big bet.
Philadelphia Eagles 27 Tennessee Titans 17
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -4.5