Washington Redskins (1-6) at Minnesota Vikings (5-2)
This line is pretty big at Minnesota -16, but it’s completely understandable, as this is a matchup between one of the best and one of the worst teams in the league. The Vikings rank 4th in first down rate differential at +6.23% and are the only team in the league in the top-10 in both first down rate and first down rate allowed. Meanwhile, the Redskins rank 30th at -7.51%, only ahead of the Jets, who have been without their quarterback for most of the season, and the Dolphins, who are arguably the worst team of all-time and have given the Redskins their only win.
This matchup should be even more lopsided on a short week in Minnesota, as it’s very tough for an inferior team to go on the road on a short week and compete on the road against a non-divisional foe. Teams are just 16-36 ATS all-time as non-divisional road underdogs on Thursday Night Football, including 1-10 ATS as underdogs of 10+. I wouldn’t go crazy with this bet because we’re not really getting any line value with the Vikings, especially with Adam Thielen questionable, but I have no problem laying this many points in this situation, as history suggests this is very likely to be a blowout.
I am also locking in one game early before the line moves. I will have a full write-up this weekend.
LAC +4.5 @ CHI
Minnesota Vikings 31 Washington Redskins 10
Pick against the spread: Minnesota -16