Quarterback

In 2024, the Commanders shocked everyone by winning 12 games and advancing to the NFC Championship game, a year after going 4-13 and receiving the second pick. The player they selected with that second pick was by far the biggest part of the reason for their surprising performance, as Jayden Daniels had arguably the greatest rookie season ever by a quarterback. As a passer, he completed 69.0% of his passes for an average of 7.43 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions and, as a runner, he had 891 yards and 6 touchdowns on 148 carries, good for a 6.02 YPC average. The rest of this team was really not that much better in 2024 than it was the year before. Their improvement was mostly because Daniels carried them.

However, despite their success in 2024, there were reasons to expect the Commanders to not be as good in 2025. For one, their schedule was set to go from one of the easiest in the league to one of the hardest. They also had an unsustainably success rate on 4th downs, converting 20 of 23, which swung at least a couple games. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is more predictive than win/loss record, the Commanders ranked 10th in 2024, good but not as good as their record. 

In particular the Commanders’ defense struggled in 2024, ranking 25th, as the team was largely carried by Jayden Daniels and the offense, which ranked 9th. The Commanders were also an old team, ranking 7th in the NFL in snap adjusted age in 2024, despite having a rookie quarterback. There was also some risk that Daniels, who meant so much to this team in 2024, would regress a little in year two and/or miss time with injury, which had been a concern for him coming out of college.

In 2025, the Commanders regressed even more than expected. Their conversion rate on 4th down fell to 61.5%, still 9th in the NFL, but not nearly as good as the year prior. Their aging roster ranked 1st in snap adjusted age and looked their age. Daniels regressed when on the field and missed 10 games after suffering four different injuries to three different body parts. As a passer, he completed 60.6% of his passes for an average of 6.71 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions and, as a runner, he had 278 yards and 2 touchdowns on 58 carries, good for a 4.79 YPC average. They finished 23rd in schedule adjusted efficiency, 13th on offense and 30th on defense, and went just 5-12.

Now going into 2026, their projection is still largely the same as a year ago. They still have an old roster, 1st in average age as of this writing, and a lot of their chances for success falls on Daniels, who has a concerning injury history and plays in a way that requires him to take more hits than the average quarterback. Even in a best case scenario, the Commanders probably won’t be as good as they were two years ago because they are unlikely to have the same success as they did on fourth downs or as easy of a schedule. The Commanders probably won’t be as bad as they were a year ago, but their win total could still be closer to 2025’s win total than 2024’s win total.

With Daniels being likely to miss time with injury again, the backup quarterback position is very important for the Commanders and they wisely brought back Marcus Mariota, who is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. In 82 career starts, he has completed 62.8% of his passes for an average of 7.48 YPA, 107 touchdowns, and 62 interceptions, including 63.8% completion, 7.60 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in 8 starts in place of Daniels over the past two seasons. In 2025, his 86.1 passer rating was not much of a drop off from Daniels’ 88.1 passer rating and he fared better than Daniels in both completion percentage and yards per attempt. 

Mariota is going into his age 33 season, so there is some potential for decline, but he was still the best backup option the Commanders could have gotten this off-season, given not just his talent, but also his familiarity with the scheme and his teammates. The Commanders still desperately need Daniels to stay healthy for them to have a chance at getting back to the post-season, but having Mariota behind him is better than not having him. The quarterback room is the strength of this team.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

Arguably the Commanders’ best offensive player other than the injury prone Daniels is left tackle Laremy Tunsil. Tunsil has been an above average left tackle for years, playing at a borderline All-Pro level in his peak years, including 2025, but he is going into his age 32 season in 2026 and could easily start to decline. Even if he doesn’t decline significantly, it seems unlikely he will repeat one of the best seasons of his career again in 2026, which would hurt an offense that doesn’t have many high level players. 

The good news is that any potential decline from Tunsil could be offset by continued development from right tackle Josh Conerly, the Commanders’ first round pick in 2025. Conerly struggled mightily to start his rookie season but got noticeably better as the season went on, which he could easily continue into 2026. He has the upside to be an above average starter long-term and the plan is probably for him to be Tunsil’s long-term successor on the left side.

Right guard Sam Cosmi is also an above average starter, at least he is when he’s on the field. Cosmi only played 9 games last season, missing time at the start of the year recovering from a torn ACL suffered in the post-season in 2024, and then missing time at the end of the year with a concussion. He probably will play more games in 2026 than 2025, but he’s missed 19 games total in five seasons in the league, so it seems unlikely he will make it through the whole season without getting hurt. The good news is he is at least relatively young, heading into his age 27 season.

The rest of this offensive line is a big concern. Tyler Biadasz was released this off-season in a cap saving move. Biadasz was a solid starting center last season and actually ended up signing for more money on the open market than he was originally scheduled to make on his previous contract, so it was a mistake by the Commanders to release him rather than trading him to get at least something in return. The Commanders also didn’t replace him and instead promoted former backup Nick Allegretti, who has mostly been a backup in his career, with 34 starts in 7 seasons in the league. He did make 17 starts at left guard for the Commanders in 2024, but he was mediocre, as he has been throughout most of his starting experience and he is now going into his age 30 season, so he figures to be a liability in 2026. With only 6th round rookie Matt Gulbin behind him though, the Commanders don’t have another real option.

Left guard Chris Paul returns as the starter, even though he was a liability last season. The 2022 7th round pick has only made 8 career starts aside from last season and he wasn’t good in those starts either, so it wasn’t a surprise he struggled and he figures to continue struggling in 2026. It is possible he could face competition from Andrew Wylie, a versatile backup who was a solid starter in his prime, but who has not been the same in 19 starts over the past two seasons and who now is heading into his age 32 season. 

Along with Wylie and the rookie Gulbin, the Commanders also have 2024 3rd round pick Brandon Coleman as a reserve and he has flashed potential in 17 career starts. The Commanders’ depth isn’t bad, but this unit definitely has concerns. They are likely to get a better season out of right tackle Josh Conerly in his second season in the league and right guard Sam Cosmi should be healthier and play more games, but left tackle Laremy Tunsil could decline due to his age, while the loss of center Tyler Biadasz will hurt this unit.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

Along with the injury prone Jayden Daniels, the injury prone Sam Cosmi, and the aging Laremy Tunsil, the Commanders’ only other above average starter on offense is wide receiver Terry McLaurin, who is going into his age 31 season and coming off of a year where he was limited to 10 games by injury. McLaurin still played well when on the field last season, averaging 2.22 yards per route run, and he has a career 1.90 yards per route run average. He also doesn’t really have a history of injury, missing three games in six seasons in the league prior to last season, while surpassing 1,000 yards receiving in five straight seasons prior to last season. 

McLaurin should be healthier this season, which will be a boost to this offense, but it is possible he isn’t as good as he used to be, given his age. Any potential decline from McLaurin would be a big blow to this offense, given the state of the rest of this receiving corps. Deebo Samuel, who was the de facto #1 receiver for stretches last season and finished with a decent 72/727/5 slash line and 1.66 yards per route run, was not retained this off-season ahead of his age 30 season. 

Without Samuel, the Commanders’ other wide receiver options are 3rd round rookie Antonio Williams, who will likely be forced into a big role in year one even though he probably isn’t ready for one, Jaylin Lane, a 2025 4th round pick who averaged just 1.10 yards per route run in a limited rookie year role (348 snaps), 2024 3rd round pick Luke McCaffrey, who has averaged 1.05 yards per route run and has played 642 snaps in two seasons in the league, Treylon Burks, a bust of a former first round pick by the Titans, who has averaged 1.10 yards per route run in his career, including 0.85 in a limited role in his first season with the Commanders in 2025 (292 snaps), and veteran Dyami Brown, who has averaged just 1.10 yards per route run in his 5-year career.

The Commanders have been strongly linked to 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, either by trade or as a free agent when he is inevitably released by San Francisco, and signing him would at least give them a better #2 wide receiver by default, but he is coming off of a brutal and complex knee injury that cost him the last season and a half, so it is tough to know what to expect from him, even though he was one of the most efficient receivers in the league prior to his injury in 2023 and is only going into his age 28 season.

The Commanders signed tight end Chig Okonkwo in free agency to a 3-year, 27 million dollar deal and he could be their de facto #2 option in the passing game if Aiyuk isn’t added, even though Okonkwo has never been more than an average tight end. In four seasons in the league, the 2022 4th round pick has averaged just 1.46 yards per route run and a 49/504/2 slash line per 17 games. He could easily set career highs in 2026 thanks to a larger target share (68 targets per 17 games in his career) and an improved quarterback situation compared to the one he had in Tennessee, but he is underwhelming as a potential #2 receiving option. 

The Commanders also have John Bates, a blocking specialist with a career 0.86 yards per route run average and 72 catches in 82 career games, and Ben Sinnott, who was selected in the 2nd round in 2024, but has shown very little in two seasons in the league, averaging 0.67 yards per route run and playing just 651 total snaps. The Commanders could use more two tight end sets this year to try to mask their lack of proven wide receivers, but their tight end depth isn’t really much better. This is a below average group that would be somewhat improved if they do eventually add Brandon Aiyuk.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Running back is another underwhelming position group. The Commanders were led in carries in 2025 by Jacory Croskey-Merritt (175 carries) and Chris Rodriguez (112 carries). Both were solid runners. Croskey-Merritt rushed for 805 yards and 8 touchdowns (4.60 YPC), while averaging 3.50 yards per carry after contact, a 53.7% carry success rate, and a 19.4% missed tackle rate, while Rodriguez rushed for 500 yards and 6 touchdowns (4.46 YPC), while averaging 3.46 yards per carry after contact, a 58.0% carry success rate, and a 20.5% missed tackle rate. 

Neither of them did anything in the passing game though, with Croskey-Merritt averaging 0.49 yards per route run and Rodriguez averaging 0.34 yards per route run. Austin Ekeler was supposed to be the passing down and change of pace back, a role he was very useful in the year before, but he tore his achilles in week 2 and missed the rest of the season, leaving Jeremy McNichols, who averaged 1.01 yards per route run and had a 25/196/0 slash line, as the passing down specialist (44 carries, 31 targets).

Rodriguez wasn’t retained this off-season, nor was Ekeler, who is going into his age 31 season. To replace them, the Commanders gave a 1-year, 2 million dollar deal to Rachaad White, who is an upgrade over McNichols and will probably play a role similar to Ekeler in 2024, when he had 77 carries and 41 targets in 12 games (extrapolated to 109 carries and 58 targets over 17 games). The problem is he isn’t as good of a receiver as Ekeler, nor is he as good of a runner as Ekeler or Rodriguez. In 2024, Ekeler averaged 1.69 yards per route run and 4.77 yards per carry. In four seasons in the league, White has averaged 3.92 yards per carry on 677 carries, with 2.70 yards per carry after contact, a 47.1% carry success rate, a 14.8% missed tackle rate, and 1.11 yards per route run.

White will be a complement to Croskey-Merritt, who is a solid early down option, despite only going in the 7th round in 2025, and who will probably play a similar role as ex-Commander Brian Robinson did 2024, when he had 187 carries and 25 targets in 14 games (extrapolated to 227 carries and 30 catches in 17 games). The Commanders also added Kaytron Allen in the 6th round of the draft, though he would probably need an injury ahead of him on the depth chart to have anything more than a few touches per game as a rookie. This isn’t a bad backfield, but it isn’t a particularly good one either.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Commanders’ defense has been their biggest weakness over the past two seasons and in 2025 it was one of the worst in the league. They spent a lot of resources trying to improve this unit this off-season and could have up to six new starters on this side of the ball, so this unit should be better, but they could largely be better by default, as many of their new starters don’t move the needle significantly. 

Probably their most impactful addition is edge defender Odafe Oweh, who comes over from the Chargers on a 4-year, 96 million dollar deal. He isn’t an elite edge defender, but the 2021 1st round pick has developed into a solid starter, totaling 22.5 sacks, 31 hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate in 47 games over the past three seasons combined, while also providing solid run defense. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Oweh should continue playing at a similar level in 2026.

Oweh will start opposite Dorance Armstrong, a solid edge defender in his own right and the only edge defender who played a significant role for the Commanders in 2025 that was brought back for 2026. Armstrong was limited to 7 games by a torn ACL last season, but he has totaled 26.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 12.5% pressure rate 57 games over the past four seasons combined and he consistently plays adequate run defense as well. He might not be quite 100% in his first season back from his torn ACL, but he is theoretically still in his prime in his age 29 season and he previously had only missed one game in the three seasons prior to 2025.

The Commanders also signed K’Lavon Chaisson to a 1-year, 11 million dollar deal in free agency and he figures to be heavily involved as a rotational reserve, given the significant financial commitment the Commanders back to him. A late bloomer, Chaisson was a first round pick in 2020 and struggled across an average of 336 snaps per season in his first four seasons in the league, but he has been decent on snap counts of 508 and 641 over the past two seasons, totaling 12.5 sacks, 17 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate across 31 games, though he has continued struggling against the run.

Additionally, veteran free agent Charles Omenihu and 5th round pick Joshua Josephs were added to give the Commanders additional depth. Omenihu, a hybrid interior defender and edge defender, has a career 10.3% pressure rate in 95 games in seven seasons in the league, not bad considering that he rushes the passer from the interior somewhat frequently. Josephs, meanwhile, was a great value in the fifth round. This isn’t an elite group, but they are solid overall and they should be noticeably better than a year ago, when this position group was a liability.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Commanders also added interior defender Tim Settle on a 3-year, 23.49 million dollar deal and he figures to rotate heavily with incumbent starters Daron Payne (607 snaps) and Javon Kinlaw (724 snaps). He’s not as impactful of an addition as Oweh, but he should still provide some benefit to this team. A 5th round pick in 2018, Settle has developed into an above average interior defender who excels as a pass rusher and holds his own as a run defender. In 2024, he played a career high 625 snaps and totaled 5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 9.4% pressure rate, all of which set or tied his career high, and he was on his way to a similar season in 2025 before missing the final five games of the season with a foot injury (383 snaps, 7.9% pressure rate). 

If Settle is past that injury, he should play at a similar level in 2026, still only in his age 29 season. It is likely he is past that injury, but it is not a guarantee and it is worth noting that, between his injury last season and the fact that he was mostly a reserve earlier in his career, he has only exceeded 400 snaps played once in eight seasons in the league. At the very least though, he should be better than Eddie Goldman (320 snaps), Sheldon Day (203 snaps), and Jalyn Holmes (251 snaps), who all are no longer on the roster after struggling in reserve roles behind Payne and Kinlaw last season. 

Payne was a first round pick in 2018. He seemed to breakout in 2021 and 2022, when he totaled 16 sacks, 20 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate in 34 games between the two seasons combined, but he has fallen to 10 sacks, 17 hits, and a 6.9% pressure rate in 49 games in the three seasons since, despite the fact that he is still relatively young, going into his age 29 season. At this point, it seems unlikely he will regain his old form, so he is likely to remain an average, but unspectacular player in 2026, both against the run and as a pass rusher. 

One thing that has at least remained a strength of Payne’s is durability, as he has missed just three games in eight seasons in the league, despite playing 49.6 snaps per game. He could see his snap count drop a little bit in 2026, with Settle being added, which could benefit him. The Commanders would also benefit from Javon Kinlaw playing fewer snaps. He is a solid pass rusher, with 8 sacks, 10 hits, and a 8.4% pressure rate in 51 games over the past three seasons, but he is so bad against the run that it more than offsets his pass rush production. Payne and Settle could play the majority of the early down snaps, pushing Kinlaw into more of a specialized role as a pass rusher.

The Commanders also still have Jer’Zhan Newton, who ranked third among Commanders interior defenders with 432 snaps played last season. A 2nd round pick in 2024, Newton is a solid pass rusher, with 7 sacks, 9 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate in 33 career games, but, like Kinlaw, he is bad enough against the run to more than offset his pass rush production. He is still only in his age 24 season, so he has the upside to improve, both as a pass rusher and a run defender, but that is not a guarantee. Like Kinlaw, it would be best if he could focus on being a situational pass rusher this season. This is not a bad position group, but it lacks high end talent.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

Linebacker Leo Chenal looked like he would be the second most impactful addition on this defense after Oweh when he was signed to a 3-year, 24.75 million dollar deal. Chenal has only played snap counts of 446, 445, and 440 in the past three seasons, trapped behind a pair of talented linebackers in Kansas City, but the 2022 3rd round pick flashed a lot of talent in those limited roles, excelling against the run and holding his own in coverage, and he seemed like a potential breakout candidate in an every down role on a new team, still only going into his age 26 season. However, two things make his addition less impactful.

For one, the player he is replacing, Bobby Wagner, was a solid player last season across 1,132 snaps and was only not retained because he is heading into what would be his age 36 season and the Commanders wanted to get younger. Wagner played next to Frankie Luvu (1,107 snaps) last season and both were solid options for a position group that was the strength of Washington’s defense last season. On top of that, the Commanders then used the 7th overall pick on linebacker Sonny Styles, who could start next to Luvu in 2026, which would leave Chenal in a similar situation to the one he was in with the Chiefs.

Luvu is going into his age 30 season and it is possible he ends up being the odd man out, but, even if he isn’t what he was in his prime, he was still a solid starter last season and the Commanders have so far kept him on a 9 million dollar non-guaranteed salary, which would be an odd thing to do if they were planning on benching him. Perhaps they will eventually let him go if he can’t lock down a starting job and having too much depth isn’t a bad thing, but it remains to be seen how this position group will shake out and the Commanders might have committed too much of their limited resources to one position group.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Commanders also signed cornerback Amik Robertson to a 2-year, 15.02 million dollar deal, but that is an overpay, as Robertson’s addition is subtraction by addition, as he has been one of the worst starting cornerbacks in the league the past few seasons, particularly last season. Given his salary and the Commanders’ lack of other options, he is locked into a top-3 cornerback role with a pair of recent second round picks, Mike Sainristil and Trey Amos. 

Sainristil was decent across 978 snaps as a rookie, but took a step back in year two, struggling across 1,024 snaps. He has some bounce back potential in 2026 and could even have his best year yet in his third season in the league, but his future doesn’t look as bright as it did a year ago. Amos, meanwhile, was mediocre across 511 snaps in 10 games as a rookie last season, before breaking his leg. He could take a step forward in year two, but that is not a guarantee, especially given that he is coming off of a major injury. 

If Amos or any of the Commanders’ other cornerbacks miss time this season, they would probably turn to another free agent addition, veteran Akhello Witherspoon. He has been a decent starter at points in his career, but he has started just 7 games in the past two seasons and now heads into his age 31 season, so he is an underwhelming #4 cornerback. The Commanders don’t have a better option though.

Another free agent addition, safety Nick Cross was signed to a 2-year, 13 million dollar deal and figures to start at a position that was a big weakness for the Commanders in 2025. Cross has started 34 games in the past two seasons, but has been mediocre in both seasons. The 2022 3rd round pick is still only going into his age 25 season, so it is possible he has better days ahead of him, but it is also very possible he remains a liability in 2026. He will start next to either Quan Martin, who started 16 games last season for the Commanders, Will Harris, who started 9 games between the start and end of the season, with an injured reserve stint in the middle, or Jeremy Reaves, who started 8 games in Harris’ absence last season. All three are subpar options.

Martin went in the 2nd round in 2023 and has started 37 of 49 games played in three seasons in the league, with 32 starts in the past two seasons, but he has been a liability in all three seasons. Harris has had some better days, but he has struggled in back-to-back seasons and is now going into his age 31 season. Reaves has primarily been a special teamer in his career, playing 725 defensive snaps in his first seven seasons in the league combined before last season (708 snaps), and he played like a special teamer last season. Now going into his age 30 season, he should go back to being a special teamer, even without another good option at the position. This secondary seems likely to be one of the worst in the league again this season.

Grade: C

Kickers

The Commanders went through three different kickers last season, before ultimately settling on Jake Moody, who looks likely to be their starter in 2026. Moody was a 3rd round pick of the 49ers in 2023, but he cost the 49ers  points compared to an average kicker as a rookie, 12.20 points compared to an average kicker in his second season, and was ultimately cut after one game in 2025, in which he missed a pair of field goals inside 40 yards. Moody was better with the Bears and then the Commanders last season, but still finished the season 5.59 points below an average kicker in just 9 games. In total, his 21.51 points below average are the worst in the league over the past three seasons combined. Moody still has time to get it together and could build on the progress he made down the stretch last season, but he could also struggle in 2026, in which case the Commanders don’t have a good alternative, with undrafted rookie Drew Stevens currently being the only other kicker on the roster.

Grade: C

Conclusion

In 2024, Jayden Daniels dragged a poor roster to the NFC Championship game, with help from a weak schedule and an unsustainably high success rate on 4th downs. In 2025, the schedule got harder, their 4th down rate predictably regressed, Daniels regressed and got hurt, and their roster remained weak. In 2025, Daniels will probably be healthier, but he is still more injury prone than most quarterbacks, their schedule won’t be easy, their 4th down success rate is likely to stay where it is, and the roster is overall still pretty weak. It will take a complete bounce back year from Daniels for this team to even make the post-season and it is much more likely that they fall short for the second straight year. Adding Brandon Aiyuk would improve their outlook slightly, but not enough for me to consider them a playoff team.

Prediction: 6-11, 3rd in NFC East

Quarterback

The Commanders were the NFL’s surprise team last season, going all the way from a 4-13 season in 2023 to a 12-5 season in 2024, as well as an NFC Championship appearance. The biggest reason for their improvement was quarterback Jayden Daniels, who was selected #2 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft and went on to have arguably the best rookie season ever by a quarterback, completing 69.0% of his passes for an average of 7.43 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, while rushing for 891 yards and 6 touchdowns on 148 carries (6.02 YPC). Going into this off-season the Commanders had a lot of cap space to spend to fill out the rest of their roster, with their quarterback on a cheap rookie deal that is the best value of any active contract in the NFL right now.

Given how well their season went last season and that they spent money to get better this off-season, many are expecting the Commanders to be even better this season, but there are reasons why that might not happen. For one, the Commanders were not as good as their record in the regular season last year, ranking 7th in first down rate differential at +2.08% and 11th in yards per play differential at +0.31 respectively, which are both much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record. Even in the Commanders’ two playoff wins, they lost the first down rate and yards per play battle both times. Including their blowout loss to the Eagles in the NFC Championship game, the Commanders were actually -1.71 in yards per play differential and -10.07% in first down rate differential in the post-season.

The Commanders also had one of the weakest schedules in the league last season, while their schedule this season is expected to be one of the toughest in the league. On top of that, for all of the money the Commanders spent this off-season, it’s unclear how much better they actually are. They also might not get quite as good of a season out of Jayden Daniels, as quarterbacks who have a great rookie season don’t always repeat that the following season, even if they ultimately end up being a great quarterback long-term. 

Of the other four rookie quarterbacks who posted a 100+ quarterback rating, only one did that again the next season and, on average, those four quarterbacks saw their QB rating fall by 12.8 points the following season. We most recently saw this with CJ Stroud, who had a phenomenal rookie year and then saw his QB rating fall by 13.8 points in his second season in the league. If we expand out to the eleven quarterbacks with a 90+ quarterback rating as a rookie, the results are a little better, but more than half of them saw their quarterback rating fall in their second season, with the average QB rating of the bunch being 4.7 points lower in their second season than their first season and only two of eleven quarterbacks exceeding a 100 QB rating. Daniels should still be very good in 2025, but he might not be quite as good.

Daniels is actually backed up by one of those other eleven quarterbacks, Marcus Mariota, whose career got off to a good start with backup 90+ QB ratings in his first two seasons in the league, but he never panned out as a long-term starter and has been a backup for four of the past five seasons. In total, Mariota has completed 63.0% of his passes for an average of 7.49 YPA, 97 touchdowns, and 55 interceptions, while rushing for 5.75 YPC and 18 touchdowns on 375 carries in 74 career starts in 10 seasons in the league. Now in his age 32 season, Mariota is who he is at this stage of his career, but, as far as backups go, he is one of the better ones in the league. He stepped in well last season when needed, completing 34 of 44 for 364 yards and 4 touchdowns, and could do the same again in 2025 for a short period of time. This is one of the best quarterback rooms in the league.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

One of the Commanders’ biggest additions this off-season was 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel. The Commanders only gave up a 5th round pick for him, but they took on his full 17.5 million dollar salary for 2025. The Commanders’ second leading wide receiver had just 506 receiving yards last season and Deebo Samuel has a career 2.16 yards per route run average, so the Commanders had a need and Samuel has the upside. However, Samuel saw that yards per route run average fall to a career low 1.60 in 2024, which is actually less than the 1.69 yards per route run that de facto #2 receiver Olamide Zaccheus averaged last season, albeit in a part-time role.

It’s possible Samuel could bounce back in 2025, still only in his age 29 season, but he’s picked up a lot of injuries in his career, missing time in all six seasons in the league, while missing 19 games total over that stretch, so it’s possible he is starting to decline faster than most receivers. There is a good chance he is still a boost to this offense, but he might not be quite as good as expected and they may miss the departed Olamide Zaccheus more than expected.

Terry McLaurin remains as the #1 receiver. He finished with a 82/1096/13 slash line and 1.98 yards per route run last season, his fifth straight 1000+ season and his sixth season over 900 in as many seasons in the league. He’s never been an elite wide receiver, maxing out with 1,191 receiving yards in 2022, but he has a solid 1.87 yards per route run average in his career. Unfortunately, he is now going into his age 30 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he started declining, but he will probably remain an above average wide receiver even if he isn’t quite as good as he usually is.

Noah Brown will likely be the #3 receiver. He only had a 35/453/1 slash line last season, but he was limited to 11 games due to injury and had an impressive 1.63 yards per route run average. Brown has never exceeded 600 receiving yards in a season in his career, but he has averaged 1.47 yards per route run over the past seven seasons, including 1.94 yards per route run in 2023, so he has been a pretty efficient pass catcher even if he’s never had the playing time or target share to put up big overall numbers. His numbers may be limited again as the #3 receiver, but he’s not a bad #3 option.

For depth options, the Commanders have 2024 3rd round pick Luke McCaffrey, who struggled with a 0.68 yards per route run average as a rookie, but could take a step forward in 2025. The Commanders also used a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Jaylin Lane, though it’s unlikely he is NFL ready enough to contribute in a positive way in his first season in the league. The Commanders also brought Michael Gallup out of retirement and, while he is still only in his age 29 season and has a decent 1.38 yards per route run average in his career, that fell to 1.04 in his final two seasons prior to being out of the league in 2024 and it’s hard to imagine him being significantly better after a year off. These aren’t bad depth options, but the Commanders will obviously be hoping they don’t have significant injuries to one or multiple of their top-3 wide receivers.

The Commanders also got a decent year out of tight end Zach Ertz, who turned back the clock to finish with a 66/654/7 slash line and 1.30 yards per route run, both his best since 2021, as he averaged 297 yards per season and 1.06 yards per route run across 2022-2023. Ertz is now heading into his age 35 season and could easily go back to struggling in 2025, though there is at least a chance that doesn’t happen and he has another decent season, despite his age.

If Ertz declines, perhaps the Commanders will get more out of Ben Sinnott, a 2024 2nd round pick who was overmatched with a 0.26 yards per route run average as a rookie, but who could take at least somewhat of a step forward in his second season in the league, even if he still is underwhelming. The Commanders also have John Bates, a blocking specialist who has averaged 0.88 yards per route run in his career, but is at least useful as a blocker. This receiving corps replaces Olamide Zaccheus with Deebo Samuel, but that isn’t as much of an upgrade as it seems and both Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz are on the wrong side of 30 and could be worse in 2025 than they were in 2024 as a result. 

Grade: B

Offensive Line

Another big addition the Commanders made this off-season was left tackle Laremy Tunsil, who they acquired in a trade with the Texans. Tunsil cost the Commanders a package of picks that included a 3rd rounder this year and a 2nd rounder next year and they will take on the remaining 42.7 million dollars he is owed for the next two seasons. Tunsil has been a consistently above average left tackle in recent years, finishing above 70 on PFF in six healthy straight seasons, maxing out with a 80.0 PFF grade in 2022. Durability has been a concern for him though, as he’s missed time in seven of nine seasons in the league, with 23 games missed total. He’s also heading into his age 31 season and could start to decline this season.

Even with the age and injury concerns though, Tunsil should still be an upgrade at left tackle for the Commanders, after Brandon Coleman was their primary starter there last season, receiving a 63.9 PFF grade across 787 snaps. Coleman was only a 3rd round rookie and could get better going forward, but if he is going to be a primary starter somewhere this season it is going to be at right tackle, rather than left. Even starting at right tackle might not be in the cards for Coleman, as the Commanders still have incumbent right tackle Andrew Wylie and additionally used their first round pick on an offensive tackle in Josh Conerly.

Coleman’s best path to a starting job would be if Conerly were to move to guard as a rookie. At guard, he would compete with incumbent Nick Allegretti on the left side. Allegretti wasn’t bad last season with a 61.7 PFF grade, but there is definitely room to upgrade. A 2019 7th round pick, Allegretti has only made 30 starts in six seasons in the league and probably doesn’t have the upside to be any better than he was last season. Wylie could also be a candidate at guard, but he finished at 59.3 in PFF grade last season, after finishing in the 60s in five of his first six seasons in the league prior to last season, and he’s now going into his age 31 season, so the Commanders have better options than him across the offensive line and he is likely to just be a versatile reserve this season.

Right guard Sam Cosmi is locked into a starting role. He was arguably their best offensive lineman last season with a 68.8 PFF grade and that was actually a down year for him, as the 2021 2nd round pick started his career with PFF grades of 74.9, 71.6, and 80.6, before his career worst 2024 season. Cosmi is still only going into his age 26 season, so he would have bounce back potential under normal circumstances, but he tore his ACL in the second round of the playoffs of last season and, as a result, could miss the start of the season and/or not be at his best when he returns.

Center Tyler Biadasz is also locked into his job. A 2020 4th round pick, Biadasz has made 64 starts over the past four seasons and has consistently received decent grades from PFF, finishing at 64.8, 61.7, 68.6, and 69.0 respectively over those four seasons. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025. He will likely be backed up by free agent addition Nate Herbig, who missed all of last season with injury, but who had previously received PFF grades of 71.2, 68.7, 58.0, and 67.6 from 2020-2023, when he made 30 starts as a spot starter. He’s primarily been a guard in his career, but can also play center. With Laremy Tunsil and Josh Conerly being added, this is a much improved offensive line and it is a deep offensive line, with two players who started last season now in reserve roles, along with free agent addition Nate Herbig, who is also an above average reserve.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Things stay the same for the Commanders in the backfield this season. Brian Robinson will remain their lead back, after leading the team in carries in each of his first three seasons in the league since being selected in the 3rd round in 2022. He’s an unspectacular lead back, but he’s not a bad option either, rushing for 2,329 yards and 15 touchdowns on 570 carries (4.09 YPC) in his career, with 2.89 yards per carry after contact, 17.2% missed tackle rate, and a 49.8% carry success rate. Last season was mostly in line with those career numbers, as he had 799 yards and 8 touchdowns on 187 carries (4.27 YPC) in his career, with 3.07 yards per carry after contact, 15.5% missed tackle rate, and a 48.7% carry success rate. I would expect more of the same from him in 2025.

Robinson is a solid pass catcher too, with a career 1.20 yards per route run average, but he only had a 20/159/0 slash line last season and won’t play a big passing game role again this season because the Commanders have a great passing down specialist behind him on the depth chart in Austin Ekeler, who has been one of the best receiving backs of his era, averaging 1.83 yards per route run in his career and 1.69 yards per route run last season. Ekeler was also a great lead back in his prime, peaking with a combined 410 carries for 1,826 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2021-2022, but he’s now going into his age 30 season, so his days of being a lead back are behind him at this point. He still averaged 4.77 yards per carry last season in a change of pace role though. He could decline further in 2025, given his age, but having a reduced role should help him age better long-term. 

The Commanders also have good depth at the running back position. Chris Rodriguez, a 2023 6th round pick, averaged 4.94 YPC on 35 carries last season and has a 4.88 YPC average on 86 carries in two seasons in the league, while Jeremy McNichols, a veteran journeyman also had an impressive 4.75 YPC average on 55 carries last season, though his career average is only 4.31, he has just 145 carries in eight seasons in the league, primarily playing special teams, and he’s now heading into his age 30 season, so Rodriguez is definitely the better of the two options going forward. The Commanders also used a 7th round pick on Jacory Croskey-Merritt to give themselves additional depth, though he could have a hard time cracking a deep running back group.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

While the Commanders’ offense should at least be somewhat better this season, due to the additions of Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil, their defense was the bigger problem last season, ranking 26th in yards per play allowed and 29th in first down rate allowed and it’s unlikely they are significantly better this season. They did make a big move to sign Javon Kinlaw in free agency, giving him a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal, but that is likely a big overpay.

Kinlaw was a first round pick by the 49ers in 2020 and has broken out as a solid interior pass rusher over the past two seasons, combining for 8 sacks, 7 hits, and a 8.5% pressure rate, while playing all 34 games, after struggling through injuries for the first three seasons of his career (26 total games missed) but he has continued to struggle against the run in those two seasons, finishing with run defense grades of 31.3 and 50.8 respectively on PFF. As a result, he has finished below 60 on PFF in both seasons at 49.6 and 53.4, making it five straight seasons below 60 to begin his career. Now in his age 28 season, Kinlaw likely is who he is at this stage of his career. He will likely remain an above average pass rusher in 2025, but his run defense will probably prevent him from being worth what the Commanders paid him.

Kinlaw will rotate heavily with Daron Payne and Jer’Zhan Newton, who led this position group with 741 snaps and 515 snaps played respectively last season. Both struggled, with PFF grades of 53.7 and 51.6 respectively, but both could be better in 2025, as Payne finished with PFF grades in the 60s in each of his first six seasons in the league prior to last season and is still only in his age 28 season, while Newton is a 2024 2nd round pick who could take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2025.

The Commanders also added Eddie Goldman to compete for a deep reserve role. Goldman was a consistently above average starter in his prime with the Bears, finishing above 60 on PFF in each of his first five seasons in the league from 2015-2019, including four seasons above 70, and a career best 87.3 PFF grade in 2018, but he sat out the 2020 season, struggled mightily upon his return in 2021, with a 39.8 PFF grade across 336 snaps, then sat out another two seasons before struggling again in 2024, when he had a 49.3 PFF grade across 330 snaps. 

Now in his age 31 season, Goldman’s best days are long behind him and he is likely to continue struggling in 2025, even in a deep reserve role. His primary competition for that role is likely Sheldon Day, who had a 58.2 PFF grade across 272 snaps last season and has finished with PFF grades in the 50s or 60s in all nine seasons in the league, on an average of 202 snaps per season. He could have a similar season again in 2025 as a deep reserve, though it’s worth noting he is now in his age 31 season and could decline to the point where he is a significant liability. This is an underwhelming overall position group, though they could be better than last season by default if Daron Payne bounces back and Jer’Zhan Newton takes a step forward in his second season in the league.

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

The Commanders’ edge defender group, on the other hand, is likely to be even worse in 2025 than it was in 2024. Dante Fowler, their team leader in sacks with 10.5, wasn’t retained this off-season and, though he struggled against the run and finished with just a 62.1 PFF grade across 563 snaps overall, he will still be missed, especially since his replacements are Deatrich Wise and Jacob Martin. Wise was a solid player in his prime, exceeding 60 on PFF in four straight seasons from 2019-2022, but he has fallen to PFF grades of 54.3 and 59.7 over the past two seasons and now heads into his age 31 season, so he is likely to continue struggling. 

Jacob Martin, meanwhile, is a career journeyman who has been decent in his career, but who has only averaged 314 snaps played per season and now is also on the wrong side of 30, going into his age 30 season. Martin figures to be a reserve, while Wise has a good chance to be a de facto starter, given the Commanders’ other options. Dorance Armstrong was the Commanders’ best overall edge defender last season, finishing with a 68.9 PFF grade across 635 snaps, while totaling 5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate as a pass rusher, after finishing with a 70.1 PFF grade across 446 snaps, while totaling 7.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate in 2023. Still only in his age 28 season and coming off of four straight seasons above 60 on PFF, Armstrong should continue being a solid starter in 2025, but he’s pretty underwhelming as far as top edge defenders go.

The Commanders’ other option is Clelin Ferrell, but he is an underwhelming option. Ferrell was the 4th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, but has not nearly lived up to the billing, finishing above 60 on PFF in two of six seasons, including a 58.5 PFF grade across 369 snaps last season, while maxing out at a 76.1 PFF grade in 2020 and averaging just 450 snaps per season. He’s a decent rotational player at his best, but nothing more. He rounds out a very underwhelming edge defender rotation.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Commanders’ linebackers were the strength of their defense last season, led by every down linebacker Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu. Wagner was one of the best linebackers in the entire league, finishing 2nd among linebackers on PFF with a 89.9 PFF grade across 1,071 snaps. That was nothing new for Wagner, who now has eight seasons above 80 in thirteen seasons in the league, with eleven seasons above 70 and no seasons below 69 in what is likely to be a Hall of Fame career when all is said and done. The problem is Wagner is now heading into his age 35 season and, while he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he declined in a significant way this season, which would hurt this defense significantly.

Fortunately, Frankie Luvu could be better in 2025 than 2024. He wasn’t bad last season, with a 67.5 PFF grade across 1,058 snaps, but that was a drop off from his first two seasons as a starter in 2022 and 2023, when he had PFF grades of 74.8 and 80.0 respectively across snap counts of 941 and 989 respectively. Still on the right side of 30 in his age 29 season, Luvu has obvious bounce back potential in 2025, which would be a boost for this defense, even if he doesn’t quite match his career best 2023 campaign.

Depth is a big issue for the Commanders at linebacker though. Their options include Nick Bellore, a career special teamer who has played just 866 total defensive snaps in 14 seasons in the league, and who now enters his age 36 season, Jordan Magee, a 2024 5th round pick who only played 16 snaps as a rookie, Dominique Hampton, also a 2024 5th round pick, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and 6th round rookie Kain Medrano. The Commanders will have to hope neither of their starters misses significant time with injury, given their options behind them on the depth chart, which hurts their overall grade at this position at least somewhat.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Commanders should get better play out of their cornerbacks this season. Last season, their top-3 cornerbacks were Mike Sainristil (978 snaps), Benjamin St-Juste (836 snaps), and 

Noah Igbinoghene (819 snaps) and they finished with PFF grades of 66.1, 47.4, and 49.3 respectively. This season, they should get more out of Marshon Lattimore, who was acquired at the trade deadline last year, but only played two regular season games due to injury, and they added veteran Jonathan Jones in free agency.

Lattimore and Jones should be upgrades over St-Juste and Igbinoghene, but perhaps largely by default. Lattimore comes with upside, finishing above 70 on PFF in four of eight seasons in the league, including a 70.0 PFF grade last season, but he’s been inconsistent in his career and he’s been very injury prone in recent years, missing 25 games over the past three seasons combined. Lattimore is still relatively young in his age 29 season and he has a high upside, but he comes with injury and consistency concerns. 

Jones, meanwhile, has also had some success in his career, finishing above 70 on PFF three times in nine seasons in the league, but he’s also been injury prone of late, missing 15 games in the past four seasons, and he’s going into his age 32 season and coming off of a 2024 season in which he finished with just a 60.7 PFF grade across 712 snaps, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. Sainristil remains as a starter. Not only was he their only capable cornerback last season, but he was only a second round rookie and could take a step forward in his second season in the league. Overall, this looks like a solid trio of cornerbacks, especially when compared to last season, but at least two of them have significant injury histories and one is on the wrong side of 30. 

Depth could prove to be important, so the Commanders used a second round pick on Trey Amos. Amos probably won’t begin the season as a starter, but could easily find himself with a significant role at some point, either due to injury ahead of him on the depth chart or due to Jones struggling. Igbinoghene also remains as a reserve option, but he should remain buried on the depth chart if possible. He was a first round pick by the Dolphins in 2020, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league and only got on the field for a total of 627 snaps in his first four seasons in the league before being forced into a significant role in a weak position group last season.

Things are not as good at safety, probably even worse than they were a year ago. Jeremy Chinn was a solid starter with a 69.0 PFF grade across 1,020 snaps, but he wasn’t brought back this off-season. Instead, the Commanders replaced him with Will Harris, whose 61.5 PFF grade last season was simultaneously significantly worse than Chinn, but also the second best season-long grade of his 6-year career. Now in his age 30 season, he’s likely to regress and be a liability in the Commanders’ secondary.

Quan Martin remains as the other starter, but he was mediocre with a 59.2 PFF grade across 942 snaps last season. He is a 2023 2nd round pick and he did flash potential as a rookie with a 65.4 PFF grade across 365 snaps, but he couldn’t translate that to a larger role. He still may have further untapped upside, but he has a long way to go to develop into a consistently solid starter. He too could be a liability in the Commanders’ secondary this season. 

The Commanders do have some reserve options at safety, but it’s unclear if any of them would be better than the starters. Percy Butler was the primary reserve last season with 399 snaps, but he finished with a 43.9 PFF grade. He did have a 62.7 PFF grade across 835 snaps (13 starts) in 2023, but the 2022 4th round pick has finished below 50 in his other two seasons in the league. Darrick Forest has finished with PFF grades in the 60s in all four seasons in the league since being selected in the 5th round in 2021, including a snap count of 849 in 2022, but that snap count fell to 328 in 2023 and just 74 in 2024. Jeremy Reeves has had his moments, but ultimately has played just 725 snaps in seven seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2018. The Commanders’ cornerback group should be significantly better this season, even if largely by default, but their safety room looks likely to be even worse, with both projected starters likely to be liabilities.

Grade: B-

Kicker

Austin Seibert was the Commanders kicker to start last season and he was having a solid year with 2.16 points above average through nine games, but he got hurt and missed the rest of the season. The Commanders then cycled through Greg Joseph (-2.92 points below average) and Cade York (-7.43 points below average) before finding Zane Gonzalez, who was decent down the stretch and through their playoff run, accumulating 0.77 points above average. 

This season, the Commanders brought none of those kickers back, opting for veteran free agent addition Matt Gay. Gay had a great 3-year stretch from 2020-2022 where he accumulated 20.65 points above average, but he fell to 3.67 points below average in 2023 and 0.68 points below average in 2024 and now heads into his age 31 season. He’s not totally over the hill for a kicker and could bounce back somewhat in 2025, but, now two years removed from his last above average season, it seems pretty unlikely he will find his old form again in 2025.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Commanders won 12 games and made the NFC Championship game last season, but they are starting from a lower base point than that suggests, ranking 7th in first down rate differential at +2.08% and 11th in yards per play differential at +0.31, which are both much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss records. That was despite a relatively easy schedule, a schedule that gets a lot harder in 2024. Even in the post-season, the Commanders lost the first down rate and yards per play battle in all three games, finishing the post-season with a -1.71 yards per play differential and a -10.07% first down rate differential.

The Commanders’ offense should be even better this season unless Jayden Daniels has a significant sophomore slump, as the Commanders added wide receiver Deebo Samuel and left tackle Laremy Tunsil this off-season to a unit that ranked 10th in yards per play and 8th first down rate. However, their defense looks likely to remain one of the worst in the league, after ranking 26th in yards per play allowed and 29th in first down rate allowed. The Commanders should still be in the mix for a playoff spot and they have an easier schedule than the Eagles, who are unlikely to be as good as they were a year ago, but I wouldn’t consider the Commanders an elite team.

Prediction: 10-7, 2nd in NFC East