Minnesota Vikings (6-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-3)
Pat Mahomes has not officially been ruled out for the second straight week, as he works back from a dislocated kneecap, but he worked with the second team in practice all week and is not expected to start this game, with oddsmakers already putting up a line of Minnesota -4 before an official confirmation on Mahomes’ status. I’m hesitant to lock this game in before confirmation, but if Mahomes does not play and this line remains about the same, I expect to make a wager on the Vikings.
It’s not exactly a bold take to say that the Chiefs are significantly worse without Mahomes, but they’ve fallen from a 44.96% first down rate with Mahomes over the past 2 seasons to a 32.29% first down rate with backup Matt Moore, who has quarterbacked this offense to just 27 first downs and 4 offensive touchdowns on 96 snaps across 18 drives. The Chiefs’ defense has allowed a 41.09% first down rate since the start of last season, so they need Mahomes back in a hurry if they’re going to lock down a first round bye in the AFC.
The Chiefs are getting healthier on defense with stud defensive tackle Chris Jones back from injury, but they’ve struggled even with him on the field over the past two seasons, so he won’t fix their defensive issues by himself. The Chiefs could also still be without defensive end Frank Clark and slot cornerback Kendall Fuller, a pair of above average starters, who are listed questionable for this game, and they have injury problems around the quarterback on offense as well.
Left guard Andrew Wylie returns from a 3-game absence, but right guard Laurent Duvarney-Tardif will take his spot on the sideline and left tackle Eric Fisher will miss his 7th straight game. I have the Vikings, one of the top teams in the NFL, calculated as 8.5-point road favorites in this matchup, so I’d take the Vikings as 4-point favorites confidently if I knew Mahomes was guaranteed to be out. This is yet another game I’ll likely be updating tomorrow morning.
Sunday Update: Mahomes is officially out. The line has jumped to 5.5, but 5 is not a key number, so I still like the Vikings for a small bet as long as the line remains under 6. Clark and Fuller are also out for Kansas City.
Minnesota Vikings 27 Kansas City Chiefs 16
Pick against the spread: Minnesota -5.5