Quarterback

The Chiefs were the most disappointing team in the league in 2025. After three straight Super Bowl appearances, including Super Bowl victories at the end of the 2022 and 2023 seasons, the Chiefs fell all the way to 6-11 last season, leaving them far out of the post-season. The biggest reason for their sharp decline was close losses. After going 52-19 in one-score games in the first seven seasons of Patrick Mahomes’ career from 2018-2024, the Chiefs fell all the way to 1-9 in one-score games in 2025.

Injuries were part of the problem too. The Chiefs didn’t have more total injuries than most teams, but injuries disproportionately affected their best players and at the worst time. The Chiefs’ schedule was relatively harder in the first half of the season and they were relatively healthy then. When it came time for the easier part of their schedule, they were missing several key players on both sides of the ball and couldn’t take advantage of the easier schedule. By the end of the season, they were without their top-2 quarterbacks, their top wide receiver, three starting offensive linemen, as well as four defensive starters. Had their injuries been flipped and happened earlier in the season, the Chiefs probably would have ended up with a better record in close games and overall.

Despite all their injuries, the Chiefs finished last season 10th in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is far more predictive than win/loss record year-to-year. The Chiefs are unlikely to bounce back to their pre-2025 winning percentage in close games, but they should be a lot better than a year ago. The Chiefs did lose some key players this off-season, but they did a good job adding talent too and they should be healthier. With an easier schedule in 2026, the result should be a much higher win total. The most important player the Chiefs need to get back from injury is quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

At one point, it seemed unlikely that Mahomes, who tore his ACL in week 15 of last season, would make it back for week 1, but his recovery has seemingly gone great, making it seem likely that he won’t miss any time at the start of the year. It is possible that Mahomes might not be 100% right away and Mahomes’ production had dipped in recent years anyway, going from 66.3% completion, 8.10 YPA, 192 touchdowns, and 49 interceptions in the first 80 starts of his career through 2022, to 66.0% completion, 6.96 YPA, 75 touchdowns, and 36 interceptions in 46 starts in the past three seasons, largely due to a diminished supporting cast, but also partially due to Mahomes’ own regression. Mahomes is not over the hill for a quarterback though, going into his age 31 season, and his supporting cast could be better this season than it has been in recent years.

If Mahomes happens to miss any time at the start of the season or at any point this year, the Chiefs would turn to new backup quarterback Justin Fields, who is a good option as far as backups go. The 11th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Fields has struggled as a passer in his career, completing 61.4% of his passes for an average of 6.83 YPA, 52 touchdowns, and 32 interceptions in 53 career starts, but he is an excellent runner, rushing for 2,892 yards and 23 touchdowns on 489 carries (5.91 YPC), and this is by far the best offensive coaching staff he has ever gotten to work with, so he could be surprisingly decent and keep this team afloat if he needs to start for a short period of time.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

After getting Patrick Mahomes back, the most important player for this Chiefs offense to get back and to stay healthy is wide receiver Rashee Rice. The Chiefs’ receiving corps has been a big concern for them in recent years, but Rice has flashed #1 wide receiver ability when on the field in the past three seasons, averaging 2.40 yards per route run in three seasons in the league, since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2023, and totaling a 112/1270/9 slash line on 153 targets in his last 17 games. 

The problem is he has missed 22 games in the past two seasons due to a combination of injuries and off-the-field problems. This off-season, Rice had a clean up procedure on his knee and went to jail for failing a drug test while on probation, but it doesn’t seem likely that either will cost him any time. Still, it isn’t a good omen for a player whose injuries and off-the-field issues have cost him significant time and have hurt this offense significantly as a result. Still very much in his prime in his age 26 season, Rice could have a huge 2026 season if he can stay on the field, but that is a big if. At the very least though, I would expect him to play more than the 415 snaps he played in 8 games last season.

If Rice misses time, the rest of this receiving corps is still a concern, but the Chiefs should also get a healthier season out of Xavier Worthy, who missed just three games last season with a shoulder injury suffered in week 1, but who seemed limited by it for the entire season. A first round pick in 2024, Worthy seemed on his way to developing into an above average wide receiver down the stretch as a rookie, averaging 2.00 yards per route run with a 58/679/6 slash line on 79 targets in his final 10 games of the season, including the post-season, but in 2025 he finished with just a 42/532/1 slash line and 1.25 yards per route run. Now in his third season in the league, it seems reasonable to assume he will bounce back if healthy, which would give the Chiefs at least one other capable wide receiver besides Rice, though Worthy will still be a clear #2 wide receiver behind Rice if both are healthy.

The #3 wide receiver will probably be Tyquan Thornton, who was the #5 wide receiver last season behind Hollywood Brown (1.49 yards per route run, 49/587/5 slash line) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (0.89 yards per route run, 33/345/1 slash line), both of whom are no longer on the roster. Thornton played a lot for a #5 wide receiver last season though (368 snaps), given that Rice and Worthy both missed time. Thornton averaged 1.70 yards per route run with 23.1 yards per catch and an average depth of target of 27.8, but he was very much a one trick pony as a deep threat. 

Thornton also only averaged 0.73 yards per route run in his career prior to last season, although last season was his first with a good quarterback and he was a 2nd round pick in 2022, so he has always had talent. He’s not a bad #3 wide receiver, but he’s not a particularly good one either and the Chiefs would be in trouble if Rice or Worthy missed significant time and Thornton had to be the #2. Behind Thornton, the Chiefs have 2025 4th round pick Jalen Royals, who only played 86 snaps as a rookie despite the Chiefs needing wide receiver help, and 5th round rookie Cyrus Allen as depth options.

The Chiefs also still have Travis Kelce, who has remained a big part of this offense in the past few years mostly out of necessity, as his yards per target has fallen to 7.34 in the past three seasons, down from 9.04 in his first nine seasons in the league, and his yards per route run has fallen to 1.60, down from 2.16 in his first nine seasons in the league. He has still received target totals of 121, 133, and 108 in the past three seasons, but, especially with him now going into his age 37 season, the Chiefs would probably like that number to come down, with more targets going to wide receivers who are more capable of making more explosive plays. Kelce is still a reliable target who has great chemistry with Mahomes, but his explosiveness has been gone for several years.

Kelce will remain being backed up by Noah Gray, who has averaged 601 snaps per season in that role over the past four seasons. He’s only averaged 0.96 yards per route run in his career and he’s not a particularly good blocker either, but he’s not a bad option as far as #2 tight ends go. If the Chiefs get more out of their wide receivers this season, Gray could see his snap count drop as the Chiefs use more three wide receiver sets and fewer two tight end sets. With Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy both possibly giving the Chiefs significantly more in 2026 than 2025, the arrow is pointing up for this group, but there are still significant concerns.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Chiefs’ offensive line should be healthier in 2026, after left tackle Josh Simmons missed nine games last season, right guard Trey Smith missed five games, and right tackle Jawaan Taylor missed five games. Taylor is no longer with the team, but he was a liability last season, while his replacement Jaylon Moore could be an upgrade. Moore has only made 18 starts in five seasons in the league, but he has consistently been a solid starter when he has gotten a chance. He is still a projection to a season-long starting role, but it shouldn’t be a surprise if he is at least a decent starter this season.

Moore will start opposite Simmons, who was the Chiefs’ first round pick in 2025. Simmons was only average as a rookie, but he could take a step forward in his second season in the league, especially since he’ll be another year removed from the torn patellar tendon that ended his final collegiate season and caused the top-15 talent to fall to the Chiefs at the 32nd pick. The time he missed last season was with an unrelated injury and if he can stay healthy, he has the potential to be an above average starter long-term, although that is not a guarantee.

Trey Smith was the offensive lineman they missed the most, as he has consistently been an above average starter in 79 starts in five seasons in the league, missing just one game in his career aside from last season. Still only in his age 27 season, that should continue in 2026. The Chiefs’ best offensive lineman is center Creed Humphrey, who has been an All-Pro caliber player since entering the league as a 2nd round pick in 2021, while making all 85 possible starts. Also still in his prime in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2026. 

Rounding out this offensive line is left guard Kingsley Suamataia, a 2024 2nd round pick who was a disaster in limited action (195 snaps) as a rookie at left tackle, but who seemed to settle down when he moved inside to left guard in 2025, where he was a decent starter, while making all 17 starts. It shouldn’t be a surprise if he continues developing and is better in 2026 than 2025 as a result, still only in his age 23 season and possessing a high upside.

The Chiefs’ depth is a little bit of a concern, in the likely case that one of the Chiefs’ starting five offensive linemen miss at least some time with injury in 2026. Swing tackle Wanya Morris was a 3rd round pick in 2023, but he has failed to develop, struggling in 16 career starts. Meanwhile, Mike Caliendo, the likely top reserve on the interior, has been mediocre in seven starts in four seasons in the league. The Chiefs do have a solid starting five, with an upgrade at right tackle compared to a year ago, and they should be healthier than they were down the stretch last season, but their lack of depth hurts their overall grade a little bit.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The biggest free agent addition the Chiefs made this off-season was signing ex-Seahawk Kenneth Walker to a 3-year, 43.05 million dollar deal this off-season, making him the 6th highest paid running back in the league in terms of average annual salary. He figures to be a massive upgrade for a team whose lead backs Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco averaged 3.75 YPC and 3.92 YPC on 163 carries and 118 carries respectively last season.

One of the most elusive and hard to tackle running backs in the league, Walker has a career missed tackle rate of 27.0%, while averaging 3.03 yards per carry after contact. He was held back by poor run blocking for much of his four years in Seattle, but, unsurprisingly, he averaged about 4.6 yards per carry in each of his two seasons with adequate blocking (2022 and 2025). His pass protection leaves something to be desired, but he can make plays as a receiver as well, averaging 1.16 yards per route run for his career, including a career best 1.44 in 2025. 

He has had some durability issues (9 games missed) and the Seahawks have preferred to use him in a heavy rotation with Zach Charbonnet, so he has just 821 regular season carries in four seasons in the league, but he showed his feature back potential in the post-season last year after Charbonnet got hurt, averaging 4.82 YPC on 65 carries in three games, en route to winning Super Bowl MVP. Finally getting a chance to be the clear lead back, on an offense with a lot of talent around him, Walker has a massive statistical upside, still only in his age 26 season.

With Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco both gone, the Chiefs used a 5th round pick on Emmett Johnson to potentially be the #2 running back, though he would be a true backup in that role and would not significantly cut into Walker’s workload. The Chiefs also added Emari Demercado in free agency to compete with incumbent passing down specialist Brashard Smith, but neither of them are a strong candidate for a significant role as a runner, with Smith totaling just 44 carries (3.43 YPC) as a rookie last season and Demercado totaling just 126 carries in three seasons in the league. 

Smith fared well in his passing down role last season though, averaging 1.59 yards per route run and finishing with a 25/172/1 slash line. He is probably a stronger candidate than Demercado, who has averaged just 0.87 yards per route run in his career, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Smith’s passing game role expanded further in the 2025 7th round pick’s second season in the league. With Kenneth Walker being added, they should be a lot better at the running back position than a year ago.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Chiefs’ defense was the strength of their team last season, ranking 6th in schedule adjusted efficiency, as opposed to 15th on offense. While their offense should be better, due to the addition of Kenneth Walker and expected better health in the receiving corps and on the offensive line, their defense could be significantly worse after losing eight of their top-16 in terms of snaps from a year ago. They did add some replacements and not all those departures are going to be impactful, but this unit will look significantly different than a year ago and probably won’t be as good.

Two of the less impactful departures were interior defenders Derrick Nnadi and Jerry Tillery, who were liabilities across snap counts of 308 and 374. Nnadi was a decent run defender, but he was so bad as a pass rusher (2.8% pressure rate) that he was below average overall, while Tillery was a decent pass rusher (6.2% pressure rate), but so bad as a run defender that he was below average overall. The Chiefs also upgraded on Nnadi and Tillery with free agent addition Khyiris Tonga and 29th overall pick Peter Woods. 

Tonga is at his best as a run defender at 6-4 338, but also has a career 7.0% pressure rate. The concerns are that he has never played more than 337 snaps in a season and now is heading into his age 30 season, but he could easily remain a useful rotational player. Woods, meanwhile, has the potential to be an above average starter both as a run defender and a pass rusher long-term, though he could have some growing pains in year one. Additionally, the Chiefs could get more out of Omarr Norton-Lott, a 2025 2nd round pick who was limited to 72 nondescript snaps as a rookie because of a torn ACL. His recovery from that injury complicates his projection, but he could become a solid rotational player in his second season in the league.

Chris Jones will probably still be the Chiefs’ best interior defender and he has been one of the best interior defenders in the league for most of his 10-year career, but he is going into his age 32 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he declined at least somewhat in 2026. Jones has been at his best as a pass rusher in his career, with 79 sacks, 129 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate in 123 games since 2018, but his run defense hasn’t been a liability either. Even if he isn’t at his best in 2026, he should remain at least an above average starter. He elevates the overall grade of a position group that figures to be better this year than it was last year, due to the additions of Khyiris Tonga and Peter Woods.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

Another two losses that won’t be significant are edge defenders Charles Omenihu (567 snaps) and Mike Danna (389 snaps), who had pressure rates of just 8.9% and 4.7% respectively last season. Omenihu’s pressure rate was hurt by the fact that he is a hybrid player who lined up on the interior in passing situations, while Danna somewhat made up for his lack of pass rush with decent run defense, but neither of them figure to be missed much.

To replace them, the Chiefs used a second round pick on R Mason Thomas, who could be an upgrade even as a rookie and who has a clearly higher upside than either Omenihu or Danna. The Chiefs are also hoping to get more out of 2025 3rd round pick Ashton Gillotte, who was mediocre across 485 snaps as a rookie, but who could take a step forward in year two. The wild card of the group is Felix Anudike-Uzomah, a first round pick in 2023 who has only played 550 snaps in three seasons in the league due to ineffectiveness and injury, including a 2025 season where he didn’t play a snap because of a hamstring injury. Only in his age 24 season, he still has potential, but it is tough to expect much out of him.

Like at the interior defender position, the Chiefs still have their top player at the edge defender position from a year ago, George Karlaftis, a 2022 1st round pick who has 24.5 sacks, 43 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate in 48 games over the past three seasons, while also providing decent run defense. Still in his prime in his age 25 season, I expect more of the same from him in 2026. This isn’t a great position group, but at the very least they aren’t worse than they were a year ago, even after a couple off-season departures.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The loss of linebacker Leo Chenal is not that impactful, not because is isn’t a good player, but because he only played 440 snaps in 14 games last season as a part-time player, stuck behind a pair of talented linebackers in Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill, who both remain on the roster. Bolton is the better of the two, playing at an above average level in each of the past four seasons, while playing 60.5 snaps per game in 58 games during that stretch. Tranquill is not quite as good and is going into his age 31 season, but he has been a solid player who has played 49.1 snaps per game in 66 games over the past four seasons, so even if he declines this season, he should at least remain a decent #2 starting linebacker. Bolton, meanwhile, is going into his age 26 season and should be in his prime for several more seasons.

Depth is a concern without Chenal though, with 2025 5th round pick Jeffrey Bassa likely to be the third linebacker in his absence, after playing just 40 snaps as a rookie. The Chiefs will probably use three linebackers at the same time less frequently with Bassa in that role than they did with Chenal in that role, but if Bolton or Tranquill miss time with injury, Bassa would then have to play an every down role, in which he would likely be a liability unless he exceeds expectations in his second season in the league. It is a concern in an otherwise solid linebacking corps.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The Chiefs’ secondary is the unit that lost the most, with cornerback Trent McDuffie, cornerback Jaylen Watson, and safety Bryan Cook all no longer on the roster, after all were above average starters in 2025. To replace McDuffie and Watson, the Chiefs traded up and used the 6th overall pick on cornerback Mansoor Delane. Delane has a high upside and could be a solid starter right away, but even if he is, he’s unlikely to be as good as McDuffie or Watson and he definitely isn’t good enough to replace both of them.

The good news is the Chiefs have 2025 3rd round pick Nohl Williams waiting in the wings, after playing at a high level across 458 snaps as a rookie. Williams is a projection to a larger role and might not be as good as he was last season in a smaller role, but even if he isn’t he could easily be at least a solid starter opposite Delane. Additionally, the Chiefs signed veteran Kader Kohou and he figures to at least play in three cornerback sets with Delane and Williams. Kohou missed all of 2025 with a torn ACL, but he was a decent player across an average snap count of 847 in his first three seasons in the league, prior to last season’s injury. He might struggle immediately upon his return from injury, but the good news he will be over a full year removed from getting hurt by week 1 and, even with the injury recovery taken into account, he’s not a bad #3 cornerback option.

The Chiefs also have several depth options behind their top-3 cornerbacks. Kristian Fulton has 53 starts in six seasons in the league since being selected in the 2nd round in 2020 and has been a decent starter at times, but also has mostly been a liability as a starter and played just 208 snaps last season. Chris Roland-Wallace went undrafted in 2024, but has flashed some potential as a slot cornerback in 384 snaps in two seasons in the league. Jadon Canady was a 4th round pick in this year’s draft. Kaiir Elam was a first round pick by the Bills in 2022 and is still only going into his age 25 season, but has mostly struggled across 1,475 career snaps and is now on his 4th team and seemingly running out of chances. They will compete for backup jobs behind a likely top-3 of Delane, Williams, and Kohou. 

To replace Brian Cook at safety, the Chiefs signed Alohi Gilman, who isn’t quite as good as Cook, but who is also a solid starter in his own right and has the versatility to play on the slot and at safety, which allows the Chiefs to play some three safety sets in sub packages. Gilman will start next to Chamarri Conner, who remains on the roster, but who has mostly been a liability since being selected in the 4th round in 2023. 

Conner could face some competition for the starting job from Jaden Hicks, a 2024 4th round pick who has been decent on snap counts of 330 and 445 in two seasons in the league, but who is a projection to a larger role. If he can’t beat out Conner, he will play a similar snap count as he did last season as the third safety. This secondary isn’t as good as they were last year, but they aren’t as bad as they could have been, given that they lost a trio of above average starters.

Grade: B

Kickers

Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker was once one of the best kickers in the league, adding 32.80 points above average in his first seven seasons in the league from 2017-2023, finishing above average in six of seven seasons. However, in the past two seasons, he has had back-to-back below average seasons, costing the Chiefs 2.59 points in 2024 and 2.47 points in 2025. That could be the start of a new trend, but Butker isn’t totally over the hill for a kicker, going into his age 31 season, and could bounce back at least somewhat in 2026. At the very least, the Chiefs still seem to believe in him, keeping him on the roster as the only kicker as of this writing.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Chiefs had a lot of bad luck with close losses (1-9 in one-score games), leading to them going just 6-11, despite ranking 10th in schedule adjusted efficiency. They also had a lot of untimely injuries last season down the stretch last season. Fortunately, schedule adjusted efficiency is more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record and the Chiefs should also be healthier this season. Unfortunately, their roster is probably not as good overall as it was last season, particularly on defense, which lost some key players, though their offense should be better due to the addition of running back Kenneth Walker. Ultimately, this team should be in the mix for a playoff spot and the division title, but I am not sure if I would consider them true contenders.

Prediction: 11-6, 1st in AFC West

Quarterback

The Chiefs finished the regular season with the best record in the league last season at 15-2, with one of those losses being a meaningless week 18 game when they already had the #1 seed locked up, and then they won their first two post-season games en route to the Super Bowl. However, in doing that, the Chiefs went an improbable 11-0 in one-score games, narrowly escaping defeat to lesser opponents on several occasions. In the Super Bowl, against their toughest opponent of the season in the Philadelphia Eagles, the Chiefs proved to be overmatched, losing 40-22 in a game that wasn’t even as close as the final score suggested.

A team’s record in one-score games tends to be highly inconsistent on a year-to-year basis and, while Patrick Mahomes is 52-19 in one-score games in his career, which seems to make him an exception to the rule, it’s still highly unlikely the Chiefs will go 11-0 in one-score games again, so the Chiefs will have to elevate their overall level of play if they want to have the regular season success they had last season. They will also have to elevate their overall level of play if they want to compete at the highest level, after being embarrassed against their toughest opponent last season. 

The Chiefs’ offense has more room for improvement than their defense, which a couple years ago would have sounded crazy to say, as Mahomes used to consistently quarterback high level offenses, but his production has dropped off significantly over the past two seasons. After completing 66.4% of his passes for an average of 8.10 YPA, 192 touchdowns, and 48 interceptions (106.0 QB rating) in his first five seasons in the league, Mahomes has seen those numbers fall to 67.3% completion, 6.89 YPA, 53 touchdowns, and 25 interceptions (93.0 QB rating) over the past two seasons. Last season, the Chiefs ranked just 22nd in yards per play and 13th in first down rate allowed.

Mahomes himself hasn’t necessarily been the problem, as his PFF grades of 85.1 and 85.8 in 2023 and 2024 aren’t far off of his PFF grades from 2018-2022, as they are his 5th and 4th highest grades of his 7-year tenure as a starter respectively. The bigger problem is how much his offensive supporting cast has fallen off around him. I will get into whether or not that is likely to improve this season later, but Mahomes himself should continue playing at a relatively high level in 2025.

Mahomes has also been pretty durable in his career, missing just two starts due to injury in seven seasons as a starter, and the Chiefs also have a good backup option, signing Gardner Minshew this off-season. Minshew fizzled out as a starter, with a 88.5 QB rating in 46 starts with four teams in six seasons in the league, but he’s an above average option to have as a backup. The Chiefs would obviously be in trouble if Mahomes missed significant time with injury, but that’s true of all elite quarterbacks and is not an indictment on Minshew as a backup.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

A big problem with this offense over the past three seasons has been their receiving corps. The Chiefs thought they solved this problem last off-season when they signed Marquise Brown and drafted Xavier Worthy in the first round, to go with 2023 2nd round pick Rashee Rice, who broke out down the stretch of his rookie season. However, Brown and Rice were limited to two games and four games respectively due to injury, while Worthy had an underwhelming rookie season, with just a 1.24 yards per route run average and a 59/638/6 slash line on 98 targets. 

The Chiefs traded for DeAndre Hopkins mid-season and he averaged 1.75 yards per route run, but he struggled to learn the offense on the fly and averaged just 35.6 snaps per game in the 10 regular season games he played for the team, which declined even further in the playoffs, when he saw just 49 snaps in three games. Instead, it was Justin Watson and JuJu Smith-Schuster who finished second and third on the team in snaps played among wide receivers, with 684 and 424 respectively, and they averaged just 0.72 yards per route run and 0.89 yards per route run respectively. 

The good news going into 2025 is that Rice and Brown are likely to be much healthier, while Worthy showed a lot of potential down the stretch, averaging 2.00 yards per route run with a 58/679/6 slash line on 79 targets in his final 10 games of the season, including the post-season. That is a small sample size and I wouldn’t expect him to be that good for the entire 2025 season, but he entered the league with a lot of upside and there is a good chance his production improves at least somewhat from 2024 to 2025.

Rice has the most potential of the trio. As a rookie, averaged 2.39 yards per route run and had a 79/938/7 slash line, including a 62/765/5 slash line in 11 games after he started playing every down, which extrapolates to 96/1182/7 over 17 games, and he improved even further in his second season in the league, with a 24/288/2 slash line and 3.27 yards per route run in his first three games, before suffering a season ending injury early in week 4. Rice is still only in his age 25 season and has a sky-high upside, but, in addition to his injury recovery complicating his projection, he could also be facing a suspension, depending on the resolution of an arrest during last off-season, though there is at least a good chance any potential suspension wouldn’t happen until 2026. Rice’s upside is massive, but he does at least come with some downside.

Brown’s upside isn’t nearly as high, but he should still be a welcome addition. In six seasons in the league, the 2019 1st round pick has averaged 1.57 yards per route run and a 76/858/6 slash line per 17 games and he is still only going into his age 28 season. Durability has been a consistent issue for him though, as he has missed time in all but one season in the league, with 26 games missed total over six seasons, but he still figures to play significantly more games than he did a year ago. If Rice and Worthy come close to living up to their potential, Brown would probably be the Chiefs #3 receiver and any wide receiver group that has Brown as their third option is in good shape.

For depth options, the Chiefs return JuJu Smith-Schuster and added 4th round pick Jalen Royals to give them more insurance. Smith-Schuster showed a lot of promise early in his career, surpassing two yards per route run in each of his first two seasons in the league, but he has seen that fall to 1.34 yards per route run over the past six seasons combined and, now going into his age 29 season, so many seasons removed from his impressive early seasons, it’s highly unlikely he will ever come close to finding his old form. 

Smith-Schuster is not a bad depth option, but he would be a significant downgrade if forced back into a top-3 role in the absence of Rice, Worthy, or Brown. He figures to start the season ahead of the rookie Royals on the depth chart, but Royals was a good value in the fourth round and could earn his way into the #4 role by season’s end. The Chiefs also still have 2022 2nd round pick Skyy Moore, but he has shown nothing through three seasons in the league, averaging 1.02 yards per route run with just 43 total catches and, while he could still have theoretical upside in his age 25 season, there is a good chance he doesn’t even make the final roster. 

With all of the issues the Chiefs had at wide receiver last season, tight end Travis Kelce led the team in targets by a wide margin, with 133, but he isn’t the player he used to be and turned those targets into just a 97/823/3 slash line, with 1.43 yards per route run. Kelce is one of the best tight ends of all time and has averaged 2.07 yards per route run and a 91/1105/7 slash line per season over the past eleven seasons, but last season’s yards per route run average and total receiving yardage were career lows and now he is going into his age 36 season. 

The Chiefs ranked second in the NFL last season with 33.7% of their targets going to tight ends and 29th with 49.7% of their targets going to wide receivers, which should change drastically in 2025, given the Chiefs’ likely improvement at the wide receiver position. In addition to that, Kelce could also see his overall playing time decrease, in favor of younger backup Noah Gray. Gray was only slightly behind Kelce last season with 1.37 yards per route run and, while that is by far a career best, after averaging just 0.88 yards per route run in his first three seasons in the league, Gray has still earned more opportunity and giving Kelce more rest could keep him fresher down the stretch. Overall, this looks likely to be a much better receiving corps in 2025.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

The Chiefs’ offensive line was also a problem last season, but, unlike their receiving corps, this group is unlikely to be better in 2025. In fact, they could be worse, after trading away guard Joe Thuney. Thuney was heading into his age 33 season and a contract year, but he still finished with a 79.9 PFF grade in 17 starts last season, so it’s hard to argue he won’t be missed. To replace Thuney, the Chiefs’ options are Mike Caliendo and Kingsley Suamataia.

Caliendo went undrafted in 2022 and has shown no signs of being a starting caliber player in his career, finishing with PFF grades of 45.1 and 49.0 on snap counts of 64 and 237 in 2023 and 2024, the only two seasons of his career in which he’s seen any offensive snaps. Suamataia at least has upside, being selected in the 2nd round in 2024, but he was even worse than Caliendo last season, finishing with a 39.4 PFF grade across 195 snaps. Suamataia’s struggles last season came at left tackle and the Chiefs are hoping that a move inside to left guard in his second season in the league will help him take a big step forward, but that’s far from a guarantee. It’s very likely whoever starts at left guard will be a big liability, a massive shift from last season, when Joe Thuney was a well above average starter.

Suamataia wasn’t the only player who struggled at left tackle last season, as all three players who made starts there finished below 60 on PFF. Wanya Morris was their primary left tackle last season, making 11 starts, and he finished with a 53.0 PFF grade. Morris was a 3rd round pick in 2023, but was also mediocre as a rookie, with a 55.6 PFF grade across 340 snaps. Morris may still have some untapped upside, but they are not planning on relying on him this season, adding Josh Simmons in the first round of the draft and signing Jaylon Moore to a 2-year, 30 million dollar deal, both of whom are more likely than Morris to see action at left tackle this season.

Both Simmons and Moore have upside, but they come with downside as well. Simmons could have been a top-15 pick in the draft, but fell to the Chiefs at 32 because he tore his patellar tendon during his final collegiate season, which is a very significant knee injury. Even if his recovery doesn’t cause him to miss any games this season, there is no guarantee that Simmons will return to his pre-injury form, especially not right away. Moore, meanwhile, has received PFF grades of 66.3, 72.9, and 74.9 in the past three seasons, but the 2021 5th round pick has only made 12 starts in four seasons in the league and is a projection to a season-long starting role, which he could ultimately end up struggling in. 

At right tackle, Jawaan Taylor is probably locked into a starting role, but that is mostly because his 20 million dollar salary for 2025 is guaranteed and the Chiefs don’t really have a better option anyway. Taylor was signed to a 4-year, 80 million dollar contract with essentially 60 million guaranteed two off-season ago, but that contract looked like a mistake at the time, after Taylor had finished with PFF grades of 63.7, 56.5, 60.4, and 58.7 in his first four seasons in the league, and it has only gotten worse over the past two seasons, when he has finished with PFF grades of 51.6 and 59.9 respectively. He will likely continue being mediocre in 2025 and could potentially struggle enough that he gets benched down the stretch for one of Simmons or Moore, who are not necessarily upgrades.

The Chiefs do at least return two bright spots from a year ago, center Creed Humphrey and right guard Trey Smith. Humphrey and Smith were added in the same draft, taken in the 2nd round and the 5th round respectively in 2021 and both have drastically exceeded their draft slot, with Humphrey receiving PFF grades of 91.4, 90.0, 78.2, and 92.8 over the past four seasons and Smith receiving PFF grades of 72.3, 71.5, 72.2, and 78.8. Humphrey was kept on a 4-year, 72 million dollar extension last off-season, while Trey Smith was franchise tagged at a price of 23.4 million for one year this off-season, as he and the Chiefs work towards a long-term extension. Humphrey and Smith elevate this offensive line, but the rest of this group has a lot of concerns.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Chiefs’ running game was an issue last season too, ranking 22nd in the NFL with a 3.97 YPC average. Isiah Pacheco had averaged 4.71 YPC across 375 carries between 2022 and 2023 as the lead back, but injuries limited him to just 3.73 YPC across 83 carries in seven games last season. In his absence, Kareem Hunt was the lead back and averaged just 3.64 YPC across 200 carries, while fullback Carson Steele moved to running back and also saw carries, averaging just 3.27 YPC across 56 carries.

Pacheco only missed three games in his first two seasons in the league in 2022 and 2023, so he’s not an injury prone player and he has a good chance to stay healthy and bounce back in 2025. However, he’s not guaranteed to step back into as big of a role as he had previously. The Chiefs added Elijah Mitchell as a free agent this off-season and, while he’s a major injury risk, limited to 327 carries in 27 games in four seasons in the league, including a full season missed to injury last season, he’s also shown a lot of promise, averaging 4.66 YPC in his limited action. If he can stay healthy, he could eat into a significant chunk of Pacheco’s carries.

The Chiefs also added Brashard Smith in the 7th round of the draft and, while he might not be a significant threat for carries, he could easily earn a passing down role. Pacheco and Mitchell have averaged just 0.88 yards per route run and 0.70 yards per route run respectively in their careers and, while Hunt used to be a good pass catcher, he’s averaged less than one yard per route run in three straight seasons, in addition to averaging less than 4 yards per carry in three straight seasons. Expect Pacheco and Mitchell to compete for early down carries and Hunt and Smith to compete for passing game work in a backfield that should be deeper and more talented than a year ago.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Chiefs’ defense was much better than their offense in 2024, and they bring back all but two of the 17 players who played at least 300 snaps for them on defense last season, so they have a good chance to remain a high level unit. One of the two players who left is interior defender Tershawn Wharton, who was a good pass rusher with 6.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 7.3% pressure rate, but struggled mightily against the run with a 44.3 PFF grade in run defense, leading to him finishing with an overall PFF grade of just 56.3 across 667 snaps, so he won’t be missed too much.

Wharton was also replaced by a very similar player in Jerry Tillery, who has finished below 60 on PFF in run defense in five of six seasons in the league, but has totaled 12.5 sacks, 31 hits, and a 7.2% pressure rate in 96 career games. The Chiefs also added Omarr Norman-Lott, who is a more well-rounded player, in the 2nd round of the draft to give them needed depth. He will essentially be replacing veteran free agent departure Derrick Nnadi, who struggled mightily with a 35.8 PFF grade across 221 snaps last season.

Chris Jones was by far the Chiefs’ best interior defender last season, one of the best interior defenders in the league in fact, and he elevates this position group significantly by himself. Jones was PFF’s 3rd ranked interior defender especially excelling as a pass rusher with 5 sacks, 16 hits, and a 13.6% pressure rate. In total, Jones has finished above 80 on PFF in eight straight seasons, including three seasons above 90, while accumulating 80.5 sacks, 120 hits, and a 13.2% pressure rate in 138 career games. Jones is now going into his age 31 season, so he could start to decline this season, which would hurt this defense, but even if he declines, he is declining from such a high base point that it’s hard to imagine he wouldn’t still be one of the best interior defenders in the league, especially as a pass rusher.

The Chiefs also still have Mike Pennel, who only had a 5.6% pressure rate last season, but was a useful situational run stopper, playing 320 snaps overall. Pennel has maxed out at 358 snaps played in a season in 11 seasons in the league, while totaling just a 5.8% pressure rate for his career, but he’s carved out a role as a useful situational run stopper. However, he is now going into his age 34 season, so he might not be able to be relied on in that role for another season. This is still an underwhelming group outside of Chris Jones, but Jones significantly elevates this group overall.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Chiefs’ edge defender group is largely the same as a year ago and, to the extent it is different, it could be better, with Charles Omenihu likely to play more than the 225 snaps in six games he was limited to last season due to injury and Ashton Gillotte being added in the third round of the draft. George Karlaftis was the best of the bunch last season and that figures to remain the case in 2025. He finished last season with a 68.4 PFF grade across 831 snaps, playing at his best as a pass rusher, with 8 sacks, 21 hits, and a 11.1% pressure rate, after a 64.0 PFF grade across 755 snaps and 10.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate in 2023. He has struggled against the run and is not an elite pass rusher, as he benefits significantly from Chris Jones drawing double teams on the interior, but the 2022 1st round pick is still only in his age 24 season and could keep getting better.

The rest of this position group used heavy rotation last season, with Mike Danna ranking second among Chiefs edge defenders with only 496 snaps played. That rotation should continue, but Danna might not play as big of a role, with 2023 1st round pick Felix Anudike-Uzomah going into his third season in the league and possibly in line for a bigger role, after playing just 550 snaps total in his first two seasons in the league, and Charles Omenihu likely to be healthier than a year ago. 

Anudike-Uzomah probably has the highest upside of the bunch, but hasn’t shown much in two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 218 and 332. He could take a step forward in 2025, but that’s far from a guarantee. Danna, on the other hand, has finished in the 60s on PFF in all five seasons in the league, on an average of 516 snaps per season, while Omenihu has finished below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in five of six seasons in the league, but has finished above 60 in pass rush grade in all six seasons, with three seasons above 70 and a total of 19.5 sacks, 38 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate in 78 career games, despite lining up inside frequently in passing situations. This is a decent position group and could be better than a year ago, with Omenihu set to be healthier and a pair of recent first round picks who could take a step forward.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Chiefs’ linebackers were an effective group last season and the same group returns this season. Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill were solid as the starters, with PFF grades of 65.4 and 66.5 respectively across snap counts of 941 and 798, but situational run stopper Leo Chenal had the best PFF grade of the bunch, with a 83.6 PFF grade, albeit across just 445 snaps. Chenal has been a great run defender throughout his three seasons in the league, but last season was his first good season in coverage and the 2022 3rd round pick may have earned a bigger role in 2025, still only his age 25 season.

If Chenal plays a bigger role in 2025, it will likely come at the expense of Tranquill. Tranquill has finished above 60 on PFF in all five healthy seasons in the league, maxing out at a 70.5 PFF grade in 2023, but he hasn’t been as good in his career as Bolton has and now he’s heading into his age 30 season and could decline somewhat in 2025. Bolton, on the other hand, is actually coming off of a career worst season, having finished with PFF grades of 69.2, 75.7, and 69.2 in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season. Still only in his age 25 season, he has some bounce back potential in 2025. This is a talented linebacking corps overall.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The other defensive player who the Chiefs lost this off-season is safety Justin Reid, who had a 76.9 PFF grade across 974 snaps in 2024, but they replaced him by giving a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal to free agent cornerback Kristian Fulton, whose addition will allow the Chiefs to move Chamarri Conner back to his natural position at safety full-time, after spending time at corner down the stretch last season. Fulton is coming off of a career best year with the Chargers in 2024, receiving a 71.1 PFF grade across 760 snaps, after finishing below 60 on PFF in two of his first four seasons in the league with the Titans, including a 46.4 PFF grade across 644 snaps as recently as 2023. 

Fulton has always had talent as a former 2020 2nd round pick, so it’s possible he has permanently turned a corner, but it seems more likely he will regress at least somewhat in 2025, though he could still remain a capable starter. Conner, meanwhile, has received PFF grades of 72.7 and 68.2 on snap counts of 305 and 573 as a versatile reserve in two seasons in the league. The 2023 4th round pick will probably play a career high in snaps in 2025 by a significant margin and is a projection to that larger role, but he could easily be a capable every down starter. 

Conner will start next to Bryan Cook, who is the incumbent starter at the other safety position. He played a career high in snaps last season with 974 and had a 63.7 PFF grade, in line with the PFF grades of 64.3 and 65.2 he had on snap counts of 341 and 593 in his first two seasons in the league. The 2022 2nd round pick is still only in his age 26 season and could still have some further untapped upside, but, even if he doesn’t, he should remain a capable starter in 2025. The Chiefs also have 2024 4th round pick Jaden Hicks, who flashed potential with a 72.2 PFF grade across 330 snaps as a rookie and could rotate in as a reserve in his second season in the league in 2025.

The Chiefs’ best defensive back by far is cornerback Trent McDuffie, who is one of the best cornerbacks in the league. The 2022 1st round pick finished 7th among cornerbacks on PFF with a 82.9 grade in 2023 and 2nd among cornerbacks on PFF with a 83.1 grade in 2024. Still only in his age 25 season, McDuffie looks likely to be one of the best cornerbacks in the league for years to come and could potentially have further untapped upside. 

Along with McDuffie and Fulton, the Chiefs’ third cornerback is likely to be Jaylen Watson, who was on his way to a solid season in 2024 with a 70.9 PFF grade through six games, before missing the rest of the regular season with injury. Watson was a 7th round pick in 2022 and only had PFF grades of 56.1 and 66.1 across snap counts of 604 and 440 in his first two seasons in the league, so he’s no guarantee to continue playing over the course of a full season at the level he played at in those six games last season, but he has potential and is probably the Chiefs’ best option for a third cornerback. 

The Chiefs’ other cornerbacks options are Joshua Williams, a 2022 4th round pick who has been solid in limited action in three seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 60.6, 73.0, and 64.3 on an average of 390 snaps per season, Nazeeh Johnson, a 2022 7th round pick who struggled with a 53.9 PFF grade in the first 494 snaps of his career last season, and third round rookie Nohl Williams. Overall, this is an above average secondary, elevated by elite cornerback Trent McDuffie, but this group is not without concerns.

Grade: A-

Kicker

Harrison Butker finished with 2.59 points below average last season, but that was only his second below average season in eight seasons in the league. In fact, in his eight seasons in the league, he has accumulated the third most points above average of any kicker in the league over that span with 30.21. Butker is going into his age 30 season, but those are still prime years for kickers, who often play at a high level into their 30s, so he has a good chance to bounce back in 2025, perhaps in a big way.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Chiefs are unlikely to quite have the same level of success in close games as they had last season, so they will need to elevate their level of play if they want to continue being one of the favorites for the #1 seed in the AFC and ultimately if they want to win the Super Bowl. Fortunately, they have a good chance to do so because one of their biggest weaknesses last season, their receiving corps, looks likely to be a position of strength in 2025.

Prediction: 12-5, 1st in AFC West