Tennessee Titans (7-5) at Oakland Raiders (6-6)
The Titans saved their season by benching Marcus Mariota for veteran Ryan Tannehill after week 6. After finishing last season 24th in first down rate at 34.12% and ranking 26th at 32.69% through 6 games this season, the Titans have had a 40.76% first down rate in 6 games with Tannehill under center, 2nd best in the NFL over that time period, only behind the Ravens. During that stretch, the Titans have lost just once and even in that game they won the first down rate battle, losing by 10 to the Panthers in a game in which they missed 3 field goals and lost the turnover battle by 2. The Titans probably won’t continue being the 2nd best offense in the league the rest of the way, but they have a strong supporting cast around the quarterback on both sides of the ball and don’t need elite quarterback play to be competitive.
This week, the Titans face a 6-6 Raiders team that hasn’t played nearly as well as their record suggests. While all 6 of their wins have come by 8 points or fewer, all but one of their losses has come by at least 18 points, with the one exception being a 3-point loss in Houston in which they lost the first down rate battle by 9.28%, but managed to score from 46 and 65 yards out. They rank 27th in point differential at -87, 29th in first down rate differential at -5.56%, and they have been even worse in recent weeks.
Dating back to week 7, the Raiders rank dead last in the NFL in first down rate differential at -8.32%, more than 12% worse than the Titans over that span. The Raiders’ record is a farce and the Tannehill led Titans should be able to beat them pretty easily, even in Oakland. I have this line calculated at Tennessee -7, so we’re getting good line value with them as only favorites of a field goal. It’s concerning that the Titans are missing top cornerback Adoree Jackson, but they haven’t been healthy on defense for most of the season and the Raiders will be without talented right tackle Trent Brown, so that sort of evens out. I like the Titans a lot this week.
Tennessee Titans 31 Oakland Raiders 23
Pick against the spread: Tennessee -3