Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) at Chicago Bears (7-7)
The now 7-7 Bears were officially eliminated from playoff contention with their loss to the Packers in Green Bay last week, a big disappointment for a team that went 12-4 a year ago. The Bears’ disappointing season isn’t a huge surprise though. They had the easiest schedule in the NFL last season and lost a pair of key defenders in free agency (safety Adrian Amos and cornerback Bryce Callahan) and their defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to the Broncos, a big blow to a defense that led the NFL in first down rate allowed by more than 2% last season. Their defense has still been strong, ranking 4th in first down rate allowed at 32.64%, but they’ve been more than 2% worse than last year’s dominant unit, while their offense has fallen to 27th in first down rate at 31.86%, struggling mightily against a tougher slate of defenses than last season.
That being said, I think we are getting some line value with the Bears as 6-point home underdogs against the Chiefs. This line suggests the Bears would be 11-point underdogs in Kansas City, but the Bears were just 4-point underdogs in Green Bay last week and held their own, with a chance to tie the game on the final drive. Their offense is a major problem, but their defense is still one of the best in the NFL, especially with stud defensive end Akiem Hicks back healthy. I have this line calculated at Chicago +3, so we’re getting good line value with them at +6. I wouldn’t recommend betting on the Bears because they could be flat after being eliminated from the post-season last week, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.
Final Update: Hicks was ruled out on Saturday despite getting a full practice in on Friday. This line has moved to a full touchdown to compensate, but I’m dropping this down to a no confidence pick. Hicks didn’t suffer a setback in his return against the Packers last week and would almost definitely be playing if the Bears hadn’t been eliminated, but the Bears are understandably being cautious with him. That could effect the psyche of this whole team in a meaningless game and cause some players to give less than 100%, even in a nationally televised game. That more than the actual football impact of Hicks not being on the field is why I’m dropping this to a no confidence pick.
Kansas City Chiefs 26 Chicago Bears 20
Pick against the spread: Chicago +7