New England Patriots (1-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-0)
The Patriots’ first season without Tom Brady got off to a good start last week, as Cam Newton and company led the team to a 21-11 win that could have been a lot more lopsided if not for a missed makeable field goal and a fumbled potential touchdown. Overall, the Patriots finished with the 2nd best first down rate differential of the week at +14.59%, only behind the Ravens, who blew out the Browns. The Patriots were only playing the Dolphins, but it’s still good to see them handle them relatively easily.
This is a completely different style of play from their underwhelming offense a year ago, with the Patriots incorporating a number of option runs that led to Cam Newton carrying the ball 15 times for 75 yards, more yardage than Brady has had in a single season since 2011. The Patriots’ offensive line is much healthier this year and, while they still lack downfield weapons in the passing game, they could follow a run heavy/strong defense style of play to a good amount of success, especially if Cam Newton continues to look as healthy as he did in week 1.
The Patriots get a much tougher test this week though, with a trip to Seattle on deck. Playing in Seattle won’t be as difficult as normal because of the lack of live crowd noise, but there are a couple key reasons why it won’t be easy. For one, the Seahawks look to have as good of a team as they’ve had in years, especially if they continue letting Russell Wilson handle more of the offensive load. Their defensive secondary has been completely reloaded with the additions of Quandre Diggs, Quinton Dunbar, and Jamal Adams over the past calendar year and are a headlining unit for a team that currently ranks 4th in my roster rankings.
The second reason is that this is a night game played between a west coast and an east coast team and, due to differing sleepcycles, the west coast team has a big advantage in night games, covering at about a 65% rate all-time. The Patriots aren’t far behind the Seahawks in my roster rankings in 10th and this line would be fair if this was a day game, but given the sleep cycle advantage, I would go with the Seahawks for pick ‘em purposes. There’s not enough here for them to be worth betting, but they should be the right side.
Seattle Seahawks 26 New England Patriots 20
Pick against the spread: Seattle -4