Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys: 2023 Week 13 NFL Pick

Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3)

Normally, betting a big non-divisional home favorite on Thursday Night Football is a good idea, as it’s very tough for an inferior team to travel on a short week and compete with a superior team, unless it’s a divisional matchup, leading to non-divisional home favorites going 47-32 ATS on Thursday Night Football as long as teams are both on short rest, including 17-7 ATS as non-divisional home favorites of more than a touchdown. However, that doesn’t apply this week because both of these teams played on Thanksgiving last week and, as a result, are both on normal rest.

With that in mind, this game is difficult to handicap. The Cowboys lead the league in point differential at +162 and rank 4th in efficiency, with a first down rate differential of +5.72% and a yards per play differential of +1.12, but they’ve also faced the easiest schedule in the league in terms of DVOA. The Cowboys have especially played well at home, winning all five of their home games by 20 points or more, but the combined record of their home opponents is 19-38 with no team having better than a 5-6 record. Even that 5-6 opponent was a Rams team that lost starting quarterback Matt Stafford to injury mid-game. All of their other home opponents are 4-8 or worse.

The Seahawks aren’t a great team, but they’re at least average, with a 6-5 record, a -20 point differential, a +0.16 yards per play differential, and a -0.39% first down rate differential, which means they’re by far the toughest healthy team the Cowboys have faced at home this season. The Cowboys won’t need to win by 20+ again at home to cover this 9-point spread and a 10+ point Dallas victory is certainly a possibility, as blowout victories, even of poor opponents, tend to be more predictive than close victories, but it’s hard be confident in them since we haven’t seen them play a team of Seattle’s caliber at home. The closest thing we’ve seen to Dallas playing a team of Seattle’s caliber anywhere was a 3-point win in Los Angeles against the Chargers, an uninspiring result, given that the Chargers lack homefield advantage. 

The Cowboys did also blow out the 4-8 Giants and 1-10 Panthers on the road by a total of 63 points, which is still impressive even against weak competition, and they came close to knocking off the Eagles in Philadelphia. However, they also got blown out in San Francisco and lost a game that wasn’t particularly close to a weak Cardinals team, though the Cowboys are a lot healthier now than they were earlier in the season when that loss occurred, entering this game with a 90.1 sic score that is one of the highest in the league at this point in the season, as opposed to 86.6 in that Arizona game. My calculated line based on my roster rankings adjusted for injuries and statistics adjusted for strength of schedule has the Cowboys favored by 11, which suggests they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes at -9, but there isn’t enough here to be confident in betting on the Cowboys at this number.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Seattle Seahawks 16

Pick against the spread: Dallas -9

Confidence: Low

Seattle Seahawks 2023 NFL Season Preview

Quarterback

Last off-season, the Seahawks traded franchise quarterback Russell Wilson to the Broncos after a decade in Seattle, seeming to signal the start of a full rebuild, with the Seahawks receiving first and second round picks in each of the next two years from Denver, as well as a trio of players, including young quarterback Drew Lock. It seemed likely that Lock, a former second round pick who was up and down throughout his stint as a starter with the Broncos (79.3 QB rating), would be given a chance to prove himself with the rebuilding Seahawks and, if he failed, the Seahawks would likely be in position to take one of the top quarterback prospects in the draft.

That was probably the Seahawks’ plan as well, but Lock struggled mightily throughout training camp and the pre-season, while long-time veteran backup Geno Smith impressed, giving the Seahawks no choice but to give the job to the veteran. From a team building strategy standpoint, it didn’t seem to be a good fit. Smith had been with the team for a couple seasons and had impressed in limited action (102.7 QB rating on 100 pass attempts), but he struggled in his previous stint as a starter with the Jets in 2013 and 2014 (74.2 QB rating in 29 starts), he was on the wrong side of 30 and, even if he could be a decent stopgap quarterback, it seemed unlikely he would be their long-term franchise quarterback and didn’t seem to fit the timeframe of a seemingly rebuilding Jets team. Smith also seemed to have a lower floor than Lock, which would reduce the Seahawks chances of getting a high draft pick. 

It seemed likely that Smith would only start for a stint until he struggled and then the young Drew Lock would get his chance. Instead, what happened was one of the biggest surprises in recent memory. In his first extended chance at a starting job since 2014, Smith broke out with 69.8% completion, 7.49 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while receiving a 79.8 grade from PFF and leading the supposedly rebuilding Seahawks to a wild card berth in their first season without Wilson. Lock, meanwhile, didn’t throw a pass all season, with Smith starting all 17 games. 

Despite that, the Seahawks still ended up with a top draft pick, getting back the 5th overall pick from the Broncos, who struggled mightily in Russell Wilson’s first season with the team. Smith was a free agent this off-season and, with him going into his age 33 season, there was some thought that the Seahawks might still try to take a quarterback early in the draft, rather than paying significant money to keep the veteran after just one good season. However, the Seahawks were able to work out a team friendly deal with Smith, worth 75 million over 3 years total, but just 27.3 million fully guaranteed, all in the first year, meaning the Seahawks aren’t tied to him beyond this season if he regresses. 

That structure left the door open for the Seahawks to still use the #5 overall pick on a top quarterback, who would sit a year behind Smith and then take over as a cheaper, higher upside option in 2024 and beyond, but the top-3 quarterbacks all went off the board in the top-4 picks ahead of the Seahawks and it’s unclear if the Seahawks would have even wanted to take one if one had slipped to 5. Smith now will likely remain the starter for the next two seasons, barring a significant regression in 2023. I wouldn’t expect him to be as good this season as he was a year ago and he seemed to regress down the stretch last season, with a 96.0 QB rating and a 66.8 PFF grade in his final 9 starts, as opposed to 107.2 and 88.4 in his first 8, but I wouldn’t expect him to suddenly regress back to being a backup caliber quarterback either and he has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter. 

The Seahawks also brought back Drew Lock as a free agent on a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal and he will remain the backup quarterback. Lock has yet to establish himself as a starter in this league, but he’s only in his age 27 season and you could do a lot worse than him as a backup. Maybe someday he’ll do what Geno Smith did, going from a second round pick to a failed starter to a long-time backup to a late career breakout a few years from now. For now, this is Geno Smith’s job, barring injury, but Smith is good insurance to have and at a reasonable price. This is a pretty good quarterback room, even if Smith is unlikely to be quite as good again this year as he was a year ago.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

Geno Smith’s surprise season was part of the reason for the Seahawks being significantly better than expected in 2022, but the Seahawks also got a lot of contributions out of their rookie class, which was a big part of their success as well. With the 9th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft that they got as part of the Wilson trade, the Seahawks selected offensive tackle Charles Cross and then later selected another offensive tackle Abraham Lucas in the third round, giving them much needed help at a position where they previously didn’t have a starter caliber player. 

Neither Cross nor Lucas were spectacular as a rookie, with PFF grades of 63.7 and 68.5 respectively, but they made 17 starts and 16 starts at left tackle and right tackle respectively and, for rookies, they did an impressive job solidifying the position. That’s especially important for the Seahawks because their top tackles behind them last season were Stone Forsythe, a 2021 6th round pick who had a 37.0 grade on 122 snaps in the first real action of his career last season, and Jake Curhan, who played just 34 snaps last season, after receiving a 54.0 PFF grade on 405 snaps as an undrafted rookie in 2021. Those remain their best swing tackle options for 2023, so the Seahawks will once again need Cross and Lucas to stay healthy. Both have the upside to take a step forward in year two, especially Cross, who was a top-10 pick for a reason.

The Seahawks lost a pair of starters from last year’s offensive line this off-season, center Austin Blythe (1,041 snaps) and right guard Gabe Jackson (667 snaps), but they were the Seahawks’ two worst offensive linemen a year ago, with PFF grades of 51.9 and 55.0 respectively, so they won’t really be missed. At center, the Seahawks’ replacement will actually likely be a significant upgrade, with Evan Brown coming over from the Lions on a 1-year, 2.25 million dollar deal that should prove to be a good value. 

Brown went undrafted in 2018 and never started a game until 2021, but he started 12 games that season as an injury fill-in for center Frank Ragnow and received a 66.8 grade. In 2022, Brown went back to the bench to start the season when Ragnow returned, but Brown ended up getting a shot to start at right guard when the Lions couldn’t find a consistent starter at that position and Brown finished the season with a 64.8 PFF grade in 12 starts, 11 of which came at right guard. With the Seahawks, he’ll move back to center, which is probably his best position, but he has the versatility to kick to guard if needed and, regardless of where he plays, he should remain at least a capable starter.

At right guard, the Seahawks will be promoting backup Phil Haynes to replace Gabe Jackson, re-signing the younger Haynes on a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal and letting the aging Jackson walk as a free agent, ahead of his age 32 season. Jackson was already a liability last season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if Haynes was actually even worse. A 4th round pick in 2019, Haynes has played just 622 career snaps (5 starts), 485 of which came last season, when he received a 57.1 PFF grade, rotating with the struggling Jackson down the stretch and starting three games as well. 

Haynes has never been close to a season long starter and he’s struggled even as a reserve, so he figures to be a liability, but the Seahawks don’t really have another option. They took LSU’s Anthony Bradford in the 4th round, but he would likely struggle as a rookie, as would 5th round rookie Olusegun Oluwatimi out of Michigan, a center who could move Evan Brown to guard if they wanted to go that route. Most likely, the rookies will be depth options in year one and the Seahawks figure to have one big hole on the offensive line regardless of how they line them up.

Damien Lewis is the final starter on this offensive line, entering his 4th season as the starting left guard, a job he has had since his rookie season in 2020, despite only being a 3rd round pick. Lewis impressed right away, ranking 16th among guards with a 70.2 PFF grade in 16 starts as a rookie and, while that slipped to a 57.1 PFF grade in 13 starts in an injury plagued second season in the league, he bounced back to 71.8 PFF grade in 16 starts in 2022, 13th best among guards, and, still only going into his age 26 season, he looks like he’ll be an above average starter for years to come, barring injuries. This isn’t a bad offensive line, but they don’t have any true stars, they have a big weakness at right guard, and their depth is very suspect.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Another key rookie for the Seahawks last season was running back Kenneth Walker, a second round pick who finished his rookie season with 1,050 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns on 228 carries (4.61 YPC), making him one of the leading candidates for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Despite Walker’s impressive performance, the Seahawks opted to use another second round pick in this year’s draft, one of the two they had after getting an extra from the Russell WIlson trade, on another running back, UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet. 

It’s a surprising move at first glance, but the Seahawks have always loved to run the ball, so adding another running back helps in that respect and Walker and Charbonnet figure to keep each other fresh. However, Charbonnet’s addition could also signal the Seahawks continuing to move in a more pass heavy direction, with Charbonnet by far being the better pass catching option of the two, with 61 catches in his final two seasons in college, while Walker had just 19 collegiate catches in his entire career and averaged just 0.67 yards per route run as a rookie. 

The Seahawks already passed more last season with Geno Smith (573 times) than they ever did with Russell Wilson and adding a running back who can catch passes in addition to running the ball, a rarity of the Russell Wilson era, could be a sign that the Seahawks are continuing to head in that direction offensively. On top of that, Walker was not as effective at keeping this offense on schedule last season as you’d expect based on his yardage and his per carry average, as Walker actually ranked 2nd worst in the NFL among eligible running backs with a just 42% carry success rate. 

Much of Walker’s production came on 17 carries of 15 yards or more, which resulted in 45.8% of his rushing yards, the 2nd highest percentage of yardage from 15+ yard runs in the league among running backs, which is concerning because long runs tend to be much less predictive year-to-year than carry success rate does. Outside of those 17 long runs, Walker averaged just 2.70 yards per carry last season and regularly struggled to keep this offense on schedule. Having Charbonnet to rotate with Walker, provide a change of pace, and to catch passes out of the backfield will help this offense. This is a solid backfield duo.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Another sign the Seahawks are moving in a more pass heavy direction is the addition of Ohio State wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the 20th overall pick. Smith-Njigba could have ultimately been drafted as a long-term replacement for Tyler Lockett, but Lockett is only going into his age 31 season and he’s coming off of a thousand yard season (84/1033/9) so, in the short-term Smith-Njigba gives the Seahawks a trio of wide receivers unlike any they had in the Russell Wilson era, with DK Metcalf also coming off of a thousand yard season (90/1048/6) alongside Lockett.

For Metcalf and Lockett, it was their second season with both surpassing 1000 yards receiving in the past three seasons, with the duo just narrowly missing in 2021 when Metcalf finished at 75/967/12. Overall, Lockett has surpassed 1000 yards in four straight seasons and 900 yards in five straight seasons, while missing just two games over that stretch, while Metcalf has surpassed 900 yards receiving in all four seasons in the league, with an average slash line of 77/1055/9 per season and zero missed games. In terms of yards per route run, Metcalf has averaged 1.88 for his 4-year career, while Lockett has averaged 1.97 over the past 5 seasons combined. Metcalf should remain a high level receiver for years to come, still only going into his age 26 season and, while he could start to decline this season, Lockett could still remain an above average starter even at less than his best.

The addition of Smith-Njigba to take targets away (Metcalf had 141, Lockett had 117, and no other Seahawks wide receiver had more than 42 last season) will make it tougher for Metcalf and Lockett to both surpass 1000 yards receiving again, especially with Lockett aging, but the rookie’s addition will make this group better overall, even if Lockett declines somewhat. The Seahawks also still have 2021 2nd round pick Dee Eskridge, but he’s played just 354 snaps in two seasons in the league, while averaging just 0.61 yards per route run, and the addition of Smith-Njigba will force Eskridge into a reserve role, barring injury ahead of him on the depth chart.

Tight ends also figure to remain a part of this offense, even if they don’t see as many targets as a year ago with Smith-Njigba and Charbonnet being added. The Seahawks are bringing back their top-3 tight ends, Noah Fant (659 snaps), Will Dissly (567 snaps), and Colby Parkinson (441 snaps), from a year ago and all are likely to continue seeing playing time, after all three averaged decent yards per route run averages, 1.39, 1.37, and 1.56 respectively. 

Fant and Dissly have career averages of 1.52 and 1.49 yards per route run in 4 seasons and 5 seasons in the league respectively and should continue being around that number in 2023, while Parkinson saw minimal playing time in his first two seasons in the league (238 snaps) prior to last season, but was a 2020 4th round pick and could still continue playing at a similar level in 2023 as he did a year ago. With Smith-Njigba added as a #3 receiver and Zach Charbonnet added as a pass catching back, this is an even better receiving corps than a year ago, even with Tyler Lockett possibly on the decline.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

While the Seahawks offense was solid last season, ranking 14th in offensive DVOA, their defense had more room for improvement, finishing 21st. As part of their attempt at improving defensively, the Seahawks decided to overhaul their interior defender position group. Shelby Harris (560 snaps), Al Woods (374 snaps), and Quinton Jefferson (566 snaps) were all released, saving a total of almost 17 million, while free agent Poona Ford (642 snaps) was allowed to sign with the Bills on just a 1-year, 2.25 million dollar deal. Woods was a solid base package run stopper, while Jefferson, Harris, and Ford combined for a 9.0% pressure rate, so they weren’t a bad group of players and the Seahawks aren’t necessarily better without them.

In their place, the Seahawks signed Dre’Mont Jones and Jarran Reed to contracts of 3 years, 51.53 million and 2 years, 9 million respectively and used 4th and 5th round picks on Mississippi State’s Cameron Young and Michigan’s Michael Morris. Jones and Reed figure to start while Young and Morris figure to compete for reserve roles with holdover Bryan Mone (271 snaps) and another free agent acquisition Mario Edwards, a journeyman who signed for just 152.5 guaranteed. Jones is the big addition, costing the Seahawks about the same amount annually as they saved from releasing all three of the aforementioned interior defenders, but it’s hard to justify him being worth that, especially when you consider he costs as much as three useful players would have.

A 2019 3rd round pick, Jones has been an effective pass rusher in his career, with 22 sacks, 19 hits, and a 9.5% pressure rate in 56 career games, including 6.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate last season, while playing a career high 715 total snaps, but he has struggled against the run for most of his career, finishing below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in three of four seasons in the league. Jones is still only going into his age 26 season and should remain an effective pass rusher for several more seasons, but his run defense is no guarantee to ever improve and, in fact, he’s coming off of a career worst 41.8 run defense grade just last season, so he could easily continue being a liability in that aspect, and an expensive one at that.

Jarran Reed, on the other hand, is much cheaper and a much better value. He’s not quite as good of a pass rusher, but he’s a similar player to Dre’Mont Jones, mostly struggling against the run in his career, but totaling 24 sacks, 51 hits, and a 7.5% pressure rate in 76 games over the past five seasons combined, including 2.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 8.4% pressure rate last season. Reed is now going into his age 31 season and will likely start to decline soon, which is why he was so much cheaper than Jones in free agency, but he could remain a useful starting interior defender for at least another season, even if he’s not quite as good of a pass rusher as he’s been in the past.

Jones and Reed aren’t a bad starting duo and they figure to get plenty of interior pass rush, but they also both figure to struggle against the run and their depth is very suspect at the position after their off-season makeover. The rookies Young and Morris would likely struggle in significant roles as in year one, while veteran Mario Edwards and Bryan Mone would both be underwhelming options. Edwards has been in the league for eight seasons and has played pretty well at times, but he has averaged just 321 snaps played per season in his career and he is coming off of back-to-back seasons of PFF grades below 60 (50.4 and 56.0), while Mone is a 2019 undrafted free agent who has never surpassed 271 snaps played in a season and who has finished below 60 on PFF in three of four seasons in the league. This isn’t a bad position group, but it definitely has problems. 

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

At the edge defender position, the big addition is second round pick Derick Hall out of Auburn. Hall will effectively take the place of middling departed veteran Bruce Irvin (60.2 PFF grade on 402 snaps in 11 games last season) in the rotation and Hall is one of three edge defenders drafted in the second round recently by the Seahawks, along with Darrell Taylor (2020) and Boye Mafe (2022). All three of them will have rotational roles, along with veteran Uchenna Nwosu, who led this group with 904 snaps played (9th most in the NFL among edge defenders) and a 72.6 PFF grade a year ago, while totaling 9.5 sacks, 16 hits, and a 14.2% pressure rate.

Nwosu could easily remain the best of the bunch this year. A 2nd round pick by the Chargers in 2018, Nwosu flashed a lot of potential early in his career, only playing 984 snaps total in his first three seasons in the league, but receiving grades of 68.4, 64.7, and 73.2 from PFF in those three seasons, especially excelling as a situational pass rusher, with a 13.7% pressure rate. He wasn’t able to translate that into a larger role in his 4th season in the league in 2021 though, receiving a 64.3 PFF grade on 781 snaps and totaling a 10.0% pressure rate, decent, but unspectacular. That also happened to come in a contract year, limiting Nwosu to a 2-year, 19.055 million dollar deal from the Seahawks in free agency, but he proved to be a good value in the first year of that deal and could easily remain an above average every down player going forward, still only in his age 27 season.

The rest of the bunch, on the other hand, will need to take a step forward this season. Darrell Taylor has 16 sacks, 13 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in the past two seasons as a pass rusher, after missing his entire rookie season in 2020 with injury, but he has struggled mightily as a run defender and, as a result, has only received overall grades of 57.6 and 58.0 from PFF the past two seasons, on snap counts of 545 snaps and 484 snaps. He’s still relatively young and could still have untapped upside, but in his 4th season in the league and his age 26 season, I would mostly expect more of the same from him in 2023.

Boye Mafe, on the other hand, was the opposite as a rookie, playing well against the run with a 72.6 run defense grade, but managing just a 5.3% pressure rate, while playing just 423 snaps total. He has the upside to be a lot better of a pass rusher in year two and beyond, but it’s not a guarantee that he ever makes good on that. Still, I would expect him to take at least somewhat of a step forward in year two and he will likely see a bigger role as well, possibly at the expense of Nwosu, who could get more regular breaks this season if the rest of the group is better than it was a year ago. The addition of Derick Hall in the draft could also help, but it’s unlikely he’ll have a huge impact as a rookie. There is a lot of upside in this group, but a lot of downside as well, with a lot of inexperience behind Uchenna Nwosu on the depth chart.

Grade: B

Linebackers

In addition to the Russell Wilson trade, another sign the Seahawks were rebuilding was when they released defensive leader Bobby Wagner, a move that happened on the same day as the Wilson trade. Wagner still played at a high level in 2021 with a 71.8 PFF grade in his 10th season with the team, but he was on the wrong side of 30 and owed 16.6 million, so it makes sense the then rebuilding Seahawks moved on from him. However, with the Seahawks unexpectedly not rebuilding, after the emergence of quarterback Geno Smith, Wagner was actually brought back this off-season on a 1-year, 5.5 million dollar deal, after one season with the Rams.

Wagner now heads into his age 33 season, but he’s also coming off one of the best seasons of his career, ranking #1 among off ball linebackers on PFF with a 90.7 PFF grade, while playing 1,079 snaps. He probably won’t be quite as good in 2023, but he’s finished above 70 on PFF in seven straight seasons, including five seasons over 80, with six total seasons over 80 in his 11-year career. Even if he isn’t as good as a year ago and even if he starts to decline noticeably, he should remain at the very least an above average every down linebacker, with the potential to remain one of the best in the league at his position if he continues not showing his age.

Wagner’s return is much needed for the Seahawks, not just because he is still playing at a high level, but because the Seahawks had a big need at the linebacker position. Jordyn Brooks (1,026 snaps) and Cody Barton (894 snaps) were middling at best as their two every down linebackers last season in Wagner’s absence last season and now the latter is no longer with the team, while the former is coming off of a torn ACL suffered in week 17 of last season that could sideline him for the start of the 2023, given how late in last season that he got hurt.

Brooks was selected in the first round in 2020, likely with the idea in mind of him being Wagner’s long-term replacement, and he’s developed into an above average run defender, with run defense grades of 68.6, 74.3, and 65.2 from PFF in three seasons in the league, while starting 33 of a possible 34 games and playing 65.0 snaps per game over the past two seasons. However, he has been horrendous against the pass, with grades of 29.8, 43.4, and 40.7 respectively in coverage. 

Between his coverage struggles and his injury, the Seahawks opted this off-season to decline his 5th year option, which would have guaranteed him 12.722 million for 2024, meaning that Brooks now heads into the final year of his contract this season. If he’s healthy, he should remain an every down player next to Wagner and he’s a former first round pick who is only in his age 26 season, but he’s no guarantee to be any better in coverage than he’s been, especially coming off of a major injury, so the return of Wagner is very welcome to this group.

The Seahawks also added ex-Steeler Devin Bush in free agency on a 1-year, 3.5 million dollar deal. Bush is also a recent first round pick with a significant leg injury in his history. The 10th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, Bush showed potential with a 62.9 PFF grade on 889 snaps as a rookie, but his second season in the league in 2020 ended after 278 snaps in 5 games and he was a shell of himself upon his return in 2021, with a 34.4 PFF grade on 762 snaps. Bush was better in his second season back in 2022, but still only had a 58.8 PFF grade on 659 snaps, still not even back at the level he played at as a rookie, which is why his free agent market was severely limited. 

Still only in his age 25 season, Bush still has some potential and is not a bad flier on a cheap contract that pays him like a reserve, but he’ll be the 3rd linebacker on this defense, which means he won’t see much action unless Brooks misses time and, even if Bush does get to play in Brooks absence, he could easily continue struggling. The re-addition of Bobby Wagner helps this group significantly and Devin Bush and Jordyn Brooks both have upside if they can stay healthy, but they’ll most likely need Wagner to continue playing at a high level for this to be an above average group, as Bush and Brooks also come with a lot of questions.

Grade: B+

Secondary

With the 5th overall pick they got from the Broncos, after the top-3 quarterbacks all went off the board in the top-4 picks, the Seahawks opted to select Illinois cornerback Devon Witherspoon. He’ll probably have some growing pains as a rookie, but he has the upside to be a legitimate #1 cornerback long-term and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade in year one over Michael Jackson, a former undrafted free agent who started all 17 games for this defense last season (1,082 snaps) and was mediocre with a 60.2 PFF grade, after playing just 30 defensive snaps in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season.

Witherspoon’s addition gives the Seahawks a pair of promising cornerbacks long-term, after 2022 5th round pick Tariq Woolen looked like a diamond in the rough as a rookie, with a 71.6 grade on PFF on 1,135 snaps, including a 77.8 coverage grade that ranked 13th among cornerbacks, another product of last year’s great draft class by the Seahawks. Woolen’s run defense was a problem and only one year isn’t enough to ignore that the entire league let him fall to the 5th round a year ago, so he could struggle for consistency and regress in year two, but he should remain at least a solid starter and has the upside to continue developing and becoming one of the best coverage cornerbacks in the league for years to come.

The Seahawks also added veteran Julian Love in free agency on a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal, while fellow safety Jamal Adams is expected back after injuries limited him to just 15 snaps last season. Backup Ryan Neal played very well in Adams’ absence last season, with a 85.6 PFF grade on 713 snaps, and he wasn’t retained this off-season, so Adams’ return and Love’s addition are kind of a downgrade, but they’re not bad options and the Seahawks still have Quandre Diggs, who was the other starter last season, when he was in the first year of a 3-year, 39 million dollar extension.

All three safeties are starting caliber and, with Diggs and Love having experience on the slot the Seahawks lacking a good slot cornerback behind Witherspoon and Woolen, it’s very likely the Seahawks plan to use three safeties together frequently in sub packages. Diggs is the most reliable of the bunch, with four seasons over 70 on PFF in the past five years, including a 73.4 grade last season, while making all but six starts. He is going into his age 30 season this year, so he could start declining, but he could easily remain an above average starter, even if he’s not quite as good as he was at his best.

Jamal Adams gives the Seahawks a lot of upside, but it’s now been four years since he was at his best. He was the 6th overall pick in 2017 by the Jets and received grades of 68.5, 89.8, and 87.9 from PFF in his first three seasons in the league, leading to the Seahawks trading two first round picks for him and eventually giving him a 4-year, 70.58 million dollar deal, which still to this day makes him the third highest paid safety in the league in terms of average annual value.

However, despite being in the supposed prime of his career, Adams has not been able to play at the same level in Seattle, with PFF grades of 64.2 and 60.1 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, before a 2022 season that was almost completely lost due to injury. Adams is still only in his age 28 season and still has theoretical bounce back potential, but it’s becoming increasingly unlikely he’ll ever bounce all the way back, or even close to it. He should at least be a solid starter if healthy, but that’s a disappointment given the investment the Seahawks made in him.

Julian Love also comes with some upside, as the 2019 4th round pick finished last season with a 70.0 PFF grade on 1,006 snaps and is only heading into his age 25 season, but he comes with downside as well, as last season was his first full season as a starter, after averaging just 581 snaps per season in his first three seasons in the league, during which time his play was pretty inconsistent, even for a reserve. It’s very possible he’s turned a corner and will remain at least a solid starting caliber player, with the upside for more, but, even if he hasn’t, the Seahawks will probably mostly only use him in sub packages anyway, unless Adams or Diggs miss time with injury. His versatility is very valuable to this secondary.

Another rookie cornerback Coby Bryant played 757 snaps as the 3rd corner last season, but he struggled with a 58.9 PFF grade and will likely see a smaller role in year two. The Seahawks also still have Michael Jackson, who wasn’t terrible as a starter last season and is a much better fit as a reserve. With Witherspoon and Love being added and Adams set to return, the Seahawks have a much deeper secondary than a year ago, but the loss of Ryan Neal could prove to be very impactful and, overall, this is a good, not great secondary.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Seahawks surprisingly made the post-season last season after a surprising breakout season from Geno Smith. Things are pretty similar on offense this season and their defense looks a little bit better than a year ago, so if Smith can continue playing at the same level, the Seahawks have a good chance to be as good or better than a year ago. That’s a big if though, for a now 10-year veteran who is a one-year wonder and who was not nearly as good down the stretch last season as he was to start the year. I wouldn’t expect him to totally regress back to backup quality, but I wouldn’t expect him to be as good either and, depending on how much he regresses, that could be enough to keep the Seahawks on the outside looking in for a playoff spot, even with the NFC being even weaker than a year ago. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 8-9, 2nd in NFC West

Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

Seattle Seahawks (7-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-3)

The Seahawks are 10-point underdogs in this game, which might seem like a lot considering they have a decent 7-7 record, but their offense has been their strength all season and they haven’t played as well in recent weeks, with quarterback Geno Smith falling back to earth a little bit. I expect that to continue into this week, when Smith will be missing two of his three best wide receivers, Tyler Lockett and Marquise Goodwin, for the first time this season. Injuries are a concern on defense as well, with a pair of key players, interior defender Al Woods and safety Ryan Neal, both out this week.

Of course, part of the problem for the Seahawks this week is that they are facing the Chiefs, who are at home and who are arguably the best team in the league. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Chiefs rank 2nd at +8.92, only behind the Bills (+9.80) and the Chiefs also lead my roster rankings, about 10 points above average, as they enter this game remarkably healthy for how late in the season it is, with no key players absent. There isn’t quite enough here for the Chiefs to be bettable, but I don’t expect this game to be close and I don’t have a problem laying the 10 points for pick ‘em purposes.

Kansas City Chiefs 30 Seattle Seahawks 17

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -10

Confidence: Low

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

San Francisco 49ers (9-4) at Seattle Seahawks (7-6)

A week ago on the early line, the 49ers were just 1.5-point favorites in this game in Seattle, but the line has since shifted to 3.5, a significant shift, given that 1 in 6 games are decided by three points exactly, with one in four games being decided by 1-3 points. Normally I like to go against significant week-to-week line movements as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play. In this case, the 49ers blew out the Buccaneers last week, while the Seahawks lost as home favorites to the Panthers.

The 49ers’ win over the Buccaneers was legitimate, but I don’t know how much stock I would put into the Seahawks’ loss to the Panthers, considering the Seahawks were likely caught looking forward to this much bigger game on a short week, with favorites covering at just a 43.3% rate all-time before Thursday Night Football. The 49ers were technically in the same spot last week, but the situations weren’t quite the same, as the Seahawks were facing a last place team before facing a divisional rival who blew them out earlier this season, while the 49ers were facing a better team and starting a third string quarterback in his first career start, a situation in which teams usually tend to be more focused, as they usually can’t afford not to be.

The Seahawks were also missing their feature back Kenneth Walker last week, whose absence led to the Seahawks getting nothing from their running game, and they were facing a Panthers team that is significantly better now with Sam Darnold and Steve Wilks as quarterback and head coach than they were with Baker Mayfield and Matt Rhule earlier in the season. Walker is back this week for the Seahawks and I would expect a much better effort from the Seahawks in a much bigger game for them, while the 49ers could have a little bit of a hangover effect from last week’s big blowout win and, as a result, are unlikely to bring their best effort again, facing a Seahawks team they’ve already beaten once this season.

With all that in mind, I like the line value we’re getting with the Seahawks as home underdogs of more than a field goal. In fact, my calculated line is still San Francisco -1, with the 49ers possessing just a 2.5-point edge in both my roster rankings and in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency. The Seahawks have a couple key questionable players on defense, safety Ryan Neal and interior defender Al Woods, who I expect to miss this game after not practicing all week, which will limit this bet, but my calculated line takes those absences into account, so the Seahawks are still bettable at +3.5 and, if Neal and/or Woods happen to play and this line stays put, I would consider increasing this bet.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Seattle Seahawks 23

Pick against the spread: Seattle +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

Carolina Panthers (4-8) at Seattle Seahawks (7-5)

A week ago on the early line, the Seahawks were 6.5-point favorites, but this line has since shrunk all the way down to 3.5. The Seahawks won last week, albeit in relatively uninspiring fashion against a bad Rams team, but it was still a win and the Panthers were on bye, so the line movement is almost definitely the result of the fact that the Seahawks are expected to be without feature back Kenneth Walker with injury. That seems like an overreaction though, as the running back position is one of the most replaceable. My calculated line actually still has the Seahawks favored by 7.5 points over the Panthers, with the Seahawks holding an 8-point edge in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency and a 6.5-point edge in my roster rankings, even without Walker.

That being said, I don’t think the Seahawks are worth betting this week. Even with the significant line movement, this line is still above 3, which is key because about 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer, including 1 in 6 games decided by exactly a field goal, and the Seahawks are in a bad spot as well, playing the 49ers in a key divisional game on Thursday Night Football next week, with favorites covering at just a 43.3% rate all-time before a Thursday game. If they had a normal week next week, I would bet on the Seahawks, but I’m leaving this as a low confidence pick with the Seahawks in a terrible spot.

Seattle Seahawks 23 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against the spread: Seattle -3.5

Confidence: Low

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at Los Angeles Rams (3-8)

It’s hard to remember a team declining as much the year after winning the Super Bowl as the now 3-8 Rams, but it’s also hard to remember a team losing as many key players to injury as the Rams have this year. Already without a pair of starting offensive linemen from last year’s team after off-season departures, the Rams have since lost the other three due to injury, as well as their starting quarterback Matt Stafford and his two best wide receivers, most notably Cooper Kupp, who was arguably the best receiver in the league a year ago. 

Their injury issues aren’t slowing down either, as they have now spread to the defensive side of the ball, which was previously mostly intact and playing at an above average level, having lost Von Miller in free agency, but having added Bobby Wagner to compensate. Most notably the Rams will be without Aaron Donald for the first time this season this week, which is a huge deal, as he’s still arguably the most valuable defensive player in the league, and they could also be without talented starting linebacker Ernest Jones and starting cornerback Troy Hill as well, who are both legitimately questionable and could be held out on a Rams team going nowhere.

The Seahawks are giving a lot of points here on the road as 7-point favorites, but the Rams are in such bad shape that this line isn’t high enough, with the Seahawks at least being somewhat above average as a team. The Rams also don’t have much homefield advantage in Los Angeles and are likely to be playing in front of a crowd that mostly favors the Seahawks in this game, especially with the Rams effectively out of it at this point in the season. The Seahawks should win this game with ease, so even at -7 they’re worth a bet.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Los Angeles Rams 13

Pick against the spread: Seattle -7

Confidence: Medium

Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

Las Vegas Raiders (3-7) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4)

This game is tough to predict without knowing the status of a pair of key players on the Raiders who seem like legitimate gametime decisions, feature back Josh Jacobs and top cornerback Nate Hobbs. If both players are out, the Seahawks shouldn’t have too much trouble covering this 3.5-point spread. A spread of 3.5 is higher than you might think because about 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer and, largely as a result, 3.5-point underdogs cover more often than underdogs of any other number, covering the spread at a 52.9% rate, which is actually profitable. However, if Hobbs and Jacobs are out, my calculated line would be 8, so I wouldn’t be too concerned about this line being at 3.5. 

Overall, the Seahawks are about 3.5 points above average in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency and about 2.5 points above average in my roster rankings. The Raiders, meanwhile, are 2 points below average in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency and, while they would be significantly better than that if Nate Hobbs returned this week from his 5-game absence, if Hobbs doesn’t play and Josh Jacobs misses his first game of the season, the Raiders would be even worse than 2 points below average. I’m leaving this as a low confidence pick on the Seahawks for now, but I might end up updating this pick depending on who is active for the Raiders and where this line ultimately ends up.

Seattle Seahawks 26 Las Vegas Raiders 20

Pick against the spread: Seattle -3.5

Confidence: Low

Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

Seattle Seahawks (6-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) in Munich

Typically the rule of thumb in international games is to take the favorite, who covers at a 61.9% rate historically, as the better team tends to be better suited to play in a weird situation like an overseas game. However, in this circumstance, the team favored by 2.5 points, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, actually seems like the lesser of these two teams. The Buccaneers have more name recognition, but the Seahawks have two more wins and it hasn’t been a fluke, as they rank 10th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about three points above average, which is in line with where they rank in my roster rankings. 

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are just two points above average in schedule adjusted efficiency (11th in the NFL) and, due to injuries, they are only a point and a half above average in my roster rankings, suggesting the Seahawks are the ones who should be favored by a couple points. There isn’t enough here for the Seahawks to be worth betting unless we are getting a full field goal with them and I don’t love going against Tom Brady in this situation (45-12 ATS in his career against teams with a better record than his, 59-31 ATS as underdogs of favorites of fewer than three), but the Seahawks still seem like the right side for pick ‘em purposes and there is some value with the money line at +125, as the Seahawks should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Seattle +2.5

Confidence: Low

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

Seattle Seahawks (5-3) at Arizona Cardinals (3-5)

The Cardinals were at the top of my overrated teams list coming into the season. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency, barely above average. They also got a lot worse this off-season, losing starting wide receiver Christian Kirk, top edge defender Chandler Jones, top off ball linebacker Jordan Hicks, top cornerback Robert Alford, and their most efficient running back Chase Edmonds, with their only major addition being former Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown, who cost the Cardinals their first round pick in a trade and who isn’t a significant upgrade on Christian Kirk.

The Cardinals are off to a 3-5 start, which is disappointing compared to last season, but I think they are still overrated, as they have had a +3 turnover margin and rank just 25th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 3.5 points below average. Injuries have also become a significant concern, with two starting offensive linemen, Justin Pugh and Rodney Hudson, starting wide receiver Marquise Brown, and feature back James Conner all out indefinitely, hurting an offense that has thus far been their better side of the ball this season and leaving them 6 points below average overall in my roster rankings.

Despite that, the Cardinals are 2-point home favorites in this game against the Seahawks, suggesting these two teams are about even. The Seahawks have been the much more impressive team this season though, ranking 10th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 1.5 points above average. It’s not as if they are significantly overachieving their talent either, as they also rank 1.5 points above average in my roster rankings. My calculated line has them favored by four points on the road, so we’re getting great line with the Seahawks at +2. If this was a full field goal it would be my Pick of the Week, but the Seahawks are still one of my top picks this week as long as they are underdogs. The money line is worth a bet as well.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Arizona Cardinals 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Seattle +2

Confidence: High

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

New York Giants (6-1) at Seattle Seahawks (4-3)

The Giants are a surprising 6-1, but all of their wins have come by one score and they have been lucky to win some of them. Despite their record, they actually rank just 22nd in schedule adjusted efficiency, about two points below average, and my roster rankings have them even worse, about four points below average, in large part due to injuries piling up. This week, the Giants will be without right tackle Evan Neal, tight end Daniel Bellinger, and edge defenders Azeez Ojulari and Oshane Ximines all out this week, among other long-term injured players like cornerback Aaron Robinson and wide receiver Sterling Shepard.

The Seahawks also have a surprising record at 4-3 and that record is more in line with how they’ve played than the Giants’ record, as the Seahawks rank 17th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about a half point below average. The Seahawks probably won’t be quite as good on offense going forward as they’ve been thus far, overachieving by ranking 9th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, while their defensive issues, 28th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, are more likely to continue than their offensive success is. 

However, even with the Seahawks’ likely offensive regression taken into account, the Seahawks still rank two points higher in my roster rankings than the Giants, about two points below average. Given that, we are getting some line value with the Seahawks as field goal home underdogs, with my calculated line favoring the Seahawks by four. It’s not enough for the Seahawks to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Seattle Seahawks 27 New York Giants 22

Pick against the spread: Seattle -3

Confidence: Low