Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (7-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-3)

The Seahawks are 10-point underdogs in this game, which might seem like a lot considering they have a decent 7-7 record, but their offense has been their strength all season and they haven’t played as well in recent weeks, with quarterback Geno Smith falling back to earth a little bit. I expect that to continue into this week, when Smith will be missing two of his three best wide receivers, Tyler Lockett and Marquise Goodwin, for the first time this season. Injuries are a concern on defense as well, with a pair of key players, interior defender Al Woods and safety Ryan Neal, both out this week.

Of course, part of the problem for the Seahawks this week is that they are facing the Chiefs, who are at home and who are arguably the best team in the league. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Chiefs rank 2nd at +8.92, only behind the Bills (+9.80) and the Chiefs also lead my roster rankings, about 10 points above average, as they enter this game remarkably healthy for how late in the season it is, with no key players absent. There isn’t quite enough here for the Chiefs to be bettable, but I don’t expect this game to be close and I don’t have a problem laying the 10 points for pick ‘em purposes.

Kansas City Chiefs 30 Seattle Seahawks 17

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -10

Confidence: Low

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (9-4) at Seattle Seahawks (7-6)

A week ago on the early line, the 49ers were just 1.5-point favorites in this game in Seattle, but the line has since shifted to 3.5, a significant shift, given that 1 in 6 games are decided by three points exactly, with one in four games being decided by 1-3 points. Normally I like to go against significant week-to-week line movements as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play. In this case, the 49ers blew out the Buccaneers last week, while the Seahawks lost as home favorites to the Panthers.

The 49ers’ win over the Buccaneers was legitimate, but I don’t know how much stock I would put into the Seahawks’ loss to the Panthers, considering the Seahawks were likely caught looking forward to this much bigger game on a short week, with favorites covering at just a 43.3% rate all-time before Thursday Night Football. The 49ers were technically in the same spot last week, but the situations weren’t quite the same, as the Seahawks were facing a last place team before facing a divisional rival who blew them out earlier this season, while the 49ers were facing a better team and starting a third string quarterback in his first career start, a situation in which teams usually tend to be more focused, as they usually can’t afford not to be.

The Seahawks were also missing their feature back Kenneth Walker last week, whose absence led to the Seahawks getting nothing from their running game, and they were facing a Panthers team that is significantly better now with Sam Darnold and Steve Wilks as quarterback and head coach than they were with Baker Mayfield and Matt Rhule earlier in the season. Walker is back this week for the Seahawks and I would expect a much better effort from the Seahawks in a much bigger game for them, while the 49ers could have a little bit of a hangover effect from last week’s big blowout win and, as a result, are unlikely to bring their best effort again, facing a Seahawks team they’ve already beaten once this season.

With all that in mind, I like the line value we’re getting with the Seahawks as home underdogs of more than a field goal. In fact, my calculated line is still San Francisco -1, with the 49ers possessing just a 2.5-point edge in both my roster rankings and in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency. The Seahawks have a couple key questionable players on defense, safety Ryan Neal and interior defender Al Woods, who I expect to miss this game after not practicing all week, which will limit this bet, but my calculated line takes those absences into account, so the Seahawks are still bettable at +3.5 and, if Neal and/or Woods happen to play and this line stays put, I would consider increasing this bet.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Seattle Seahawks 23

Pick against the spread: Seattle +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (4-8) at Seattle Seahawks (7-5)

A week ago on the early line, the Seahawks were 6.5-point favorites, but this line has since shrunk all the way down to 3.5. The Seahawks won last week, albeit in relatively uninspiring fashion against a bad Rams team, but it was still a win and the Panthers were on bye, so the line movement is almost definitely the result of the fact that the Seahawks are expected to be without feature back Kenneth Walker with injury. That seems like an overreaction though, as the running back position is one of the most replaceable. My calculated line actually still has the Seahawks favored by 7.5 points over the Panthers, with the Seahawks holding an 8-point edge in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency and a 6.5-point edge in my roster rankings, even without Walker.

That being said, I don’t think the Seahawks are worth betting this week. Even with the significant line movement, this line is still above 3, which is key because about 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer, including 1 in 6 games decided by exactly a field goal, and the Seahawks are in a bad spot as well, playing the 49ers in a key divisional game on Thursday Night Football next week, with favorites covering at just a 43.3% rate all-time before a Thursday game. If they had a normal week next week, I would bet on the Seahawks, but I’m leaving this as a low confidence pick with the Seahawks in a terrible spot.

Seattle Seahawks 23 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against the spread: Seattle -3.5

Confidence: Low

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at Los Angeles Rams (3-8)

It’s hard to remember a team declining as much the year after winning the Super Bowl as the now 3-8 Rams, but it’s also hard to remember a team losing as many key players to injury as the Rams have this year. Already without a pair of starting offensive linemen from last year’s team after off-season departures, the Rams have since lost the other three due to injury, as well as their starting quarterback Matt Stafford and his two best wide receivers, most notably Cooper Kupp, who was arguably the best receiver in the league a year ago. 

Their injury issues aren’t slowing down either, as they have now spread to the defensive side of the ball, which was previously mostly intact and playing at an above average level, having lost Von Miller in free agency, but having added Bobby Wagner to compensate. Most notably the Rams will be without Aaron Donald for the first time this season this week, which is a huge deal, as he’s still arguably the most valuable defensive player in the league, and they could also be without talented starting linebacker Ernest Jones and starting cornerback Troy Hill as well, who are both legitimately questionable and could be held out on a Rams team going nowhere.

The Seahawks are giving a lot of points here on the road as 7-point favorites, but the Rams are in such bad shape that this line isn’t high enough, with the Seahawks at least being somewhat above average as a team. The Rams also don’t have much homefield advantage in Los Angeles and are likely to be playing in front of a crowd that mostly favors the Seahawks in this game, especially with the Rams effectively out of it at this point in the season. The Seahawks should win this game with ease, so even at -7 they’re worth a bet.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Los Angeles Rams 13

Pick against the spread: Seattle -7

Confidence: Medium

Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (3-7) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4)

This game is tough to predict without knowing the status of a pair of key players on the Raiders who seem like legitimate gametime decisions, feature back Josh Jacobs and top cornerback Nate Hobbs. If both players are out, the Seahawks shouldn’t have too much trouble covering this 3.5-point spread. A spread of 3.5 is higher than you might think because about 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer and, largely as a result, 3.5-point underdogs cover more often than underdogs of any other number, covering the spread at a 52.9% rate, which is actually profitable. However, if Hobbs and Jacobs are out, my calculated line would be 8, so I wouldn’t be too concerned about this line being at 3.5. 

Overall, the Seahawks are about 3.5 points above average in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency and about 2.5 points above average in my roster rankings. The Raiders, meanwhile, are 2 points below average in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency and, while they would be significantly better than that if Nate Hobbs returned this week from his 5-game absence, if Hobbs doesn’t play and Josh Jacobs misses his first game of the season, the Raiders would be even worse than 2 points below average. I’m leaving this as a low confidence pick on the Seahawks for now, but I might end up updating this pick depending on who is active for the Raiders and where this line ultimately ends up.

Seattle Seahawks 26 Las Vegas Raiders 20

Pick against the spread: Seattle -3.5

Confidence: Low

Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (6-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) in Munich

Typically the rule of thumb in international games is to take the favorite, who covers at a 61.9% rate historically, as the better team tends to be better suited to play in a weird situation like an overseas game. However, in this circumstance, the team favored by 2.5 points, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, actually seems like the lesser of these two teams. The Buccaneers have more name recognition, but the Seahawks have two more wins and it hasn’t been a fluke, as they rank 10th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about three points above average, which is in line with where they rank in my roster rankings. 

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are just two points above average in schedule adjusted efficiency (11th in the NFL) and, due to injuries, they are only a point and a half above average in my roster rankings, suggesting the Seahawks are the ones who should be favored by a couple points. There isn’t enough here for the Seahawks to be worth betting unless we are getting a full field goal with them and I don’t love going against Tom Brady in this situation (45-12 ATS in his career against teams with a better record than his, 59-31 ATS as underdogs of favorites of fewer than three), but the Seahawks still seem like the right side for pick ‘em purposes and there is some value with the money line at +125, as the Seahawks should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Seattle +2.5

Confidence: Low

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (5-3) at Arizona Cardinals (3-5)

The Cardinals were at the top of my overrated teams list coming into the season. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency, barely above average. They also got a lot worse this off-season, losing starting wide receiver Christian Kirk, top edge defender Chandler Jones, top off ball linebacker Jordan Hicks, top cornerback Robert Alford, and their most efficient running back Chase Edmonds, with their only major addition being former Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown, who cost the Cardinals their first round pick in a trade and who isn’t a significant upgrade on Christian Kirk.

The Cardinals are off to a 3-5 start, which is disappointing compared to last season, but I think they are still overrated, as they have had a +3 turnover margin and rank just 25th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 3.5 points below average. Injuries have also become a significant concern, with two starting offensive linemen, Justin Pugh and Rodney Hudson, starting wide receiver Marquise Brown, and feature back James Conner all out indefinitely, hurting an offense that has thus far been their better side of the ball this season and leaving them 6 points below average overall in my roster rankings.

Despite that, the Cardinals are 2-point home favorites in this game against the Seahawks, suggesting these two teams are about even. The Seahawks have been the much more impressive team this season though, ranking 10th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 1.5 points above average. It’s not as if they are significantly overachieving their talent either, as they also rank 1.5 points above average in my roster rankings. My calculated line has them favored by four points on the road, so we’re getting great line with the Seahawks at +2. If this was a full field goal it would be my Pick of the Week, but the Seahawks are still one of my top picks this week as long as they are underdogs. The money line is worth a bet as well.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Arizona Cardinals 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Seattle +2

Confidence: High

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (6-1) at Seattle Seahawks (4-3)

The Giants are a surprising 6-1, but all of their wins have come by one score and they have been lucky to win some of them. Despite their record, they actually rank just 22nd in schedule adjusted efficiency, about two points below average, and my roster rankings have them even worse, about four points below average, in large part due to injuries piling up. This week, the Giants will be without right tackle Evan Neal, tight end Daniel Bellinger, and edge defenders Azeez Ojulari and Oshane Ximines all out this week, among other long-term injured players like cornerback Aaron Robinson and wide receiver Sterling Shepard.

The Seahawks also have a surprising record at 4-3 and that record is more in line with how they’ve played than the Giants’ record, as the Seahawks rank 17th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about a half point below average. The Seahawks probably won’t be quite as good on offense going forward as they’ve been thus far, overachieving by ranking 9th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, while their defensive issues, 28th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, are more likely to continue than their offensive success is. 

However, even with the Seahawks’ likely offensive regression taken into account, the Seahawks still rank two points higher in my roster rankings than the Giants, about two points below average. Given that, we are getting some line value with the Seahawks as field goal home underdogs, with my calculated line favoring the Seahawks by four. It’s not enough for the Seahawks to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Seattle Seahawks 27 New York Giants 22

Pick against the spread: Seattle -3

Confidence: Low

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (3-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)

I was surprised this line was so low, favoring the Chargers by just 5 points, after favoring them by 7.5 points on the early line last week. The Seahawks did pull the minor upset at home over the Cardinals last week, but the Cardinals are an overrated team who ranks just 26th in schedule adjusted efficiency and who should never have been favored in that game in the first place, so that win should not have moved this line by that much. 

The Chargers had a pretty underwhelming performance last week, eking out a win over the Broncos, and they’ve had a slower start to the season than expected, going 4-2, but having a negative point differential and ranking just 24th in schedule adjusted efficiency, in large part due to injuries to key players like center Corey Linsley, left tackle Rashawn Slater, edge defender Joey Bosa, wide receiver Keenan Allen, and cornerback JC Jackson, who have all missed significant time this season. However, Linsley will play this week, Jackson could be better another week removed from his injury, and Allen may also return, so things are looking up injury wise.

With their injury situation improving, the Chargers rank about a point above average in my roster rankings, not as high as they were ranked to begin the season, but still better than they’ve played thus far this season. The Seahawks, meanwhile, rank 6 points below average in my roster rankings. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Seahawks actually rank slightly higher than the Chargers, ranking 21st, but that is primarily due to an offense that ranks 7th in schedule adjusted efficiency, while their defense ranks 31st, and I think it’s much more likely that their defense continues to struggle than it is that their offense continues playing at a high level, with quarterback Geno Smith’s performance likely to regress going forward.

My calculated line for this game is Chargers -7 and that’s even taking into account that the Chargers have next to no homefield advantage in Los Angeles, leading to them going just 16-26 ATS at home since moving in 2017. We’re not getting significant line value with the Chargers at -5, but they are in a good spot with a bye up next. Home favorites of 6+ cover the spread at a 63.3% rate before a bye and, while the Chargers are not favored by that much, they deserve to be, so that trend could still apply. I am waiting on the injury status of Keenan Allen and Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett, but, assuming Allen returns after two weeks of limited practice and Lockett does not play after not practicing all week, the Chargers should be bettable this week. This is a low confidence pick for now, but I will update this pick before gametime.

Los Angeles Chargers 31 Seattle Seahawks 23

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -5

Confidence: Low

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (2-3) at Seattle Seahawks (2-3)

Coming into the season, I thought the Cardinals were one of the most overrated teams in the league. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency, barely above average. They also got a lot worse this off-season, losing starting wide receiver Christian Kirk, top edge defender Chandler Jones, top off ball linebacker Jordan Hicks, top cornerback Robert Alford, and their most efficient running back Chase Edmonds, with their only major addition being former Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown, who cost the Cardinals their first round pick in a trade and who isn’t a significant upgrade on Christian Kirk. They’re also without top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games of the season due to a suspension.

The Cardinals are off to a 2-3 start, but they’ve been worse than that suggests, as they have a negative point differential, -18, despite a positive turnover margin, +3, tied for 4th best in the NFL. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Cardinals rank 22nd. Despite that, they are favored on the road against a competent Seahawks team that has been competitive in all but one of their games. My calculated line has the Seahawks favored by a point, with the Cardinals being on the road and only having a slight edge in my roster rankings. The Cardinals are also in a tough spot with a short week next week, with favorites covering the spread at just a 42.7% rate before Thursday Night Football. I wish we were getting the full field goal with the Seahawks, but they’re still worth a bet at +2.5 and the money line is worth a bet as well.

Seattle Seahawks 28 Arizona Cardinals 27 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Seattle +2.5

Confidence: Medium