Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers: 2019 Week 15 NFL Pick

Seattle Seahawks (10-3) at Carolina Panthers (5-8)

The Panthers got off to a 4-2 start, but they’ve been an entirely different team since their week 7 bye, ranking 29th in first down rate differential over that stretch at -5.60% and losing 6 of 7 games. First time starting quarterback Kyle Allen has regressed since a hot start to the season, but the offense hasn’t been the problem, as they’ve ranked 13th in first down rate at 35.67% since week 7. The problem has been the defense, which ranked 7th in first down rate allowed at 33.97% before their bye, but has fallen to 31st in first down rate allowed at 41.27% since their bye. The Panthers fired head coach and de facto defensive coordinator Ron Rivera a couple weeks ago, but it didn’t seem to make a difference in the Panthers blowout loss in Atlanta last season.

That being said, I actually kind of like the Panthers this week, as 6-point home underdogs against the Seahawks. The Seahawks have 10 wins, but they haven’t blown teams out, with just one of their wins coming by more than a touchdown. Their average margin of victory is just 5.60 points per game and 6 of their wins have come by 6 points or fewer, relevant given this line is 6. Overall on the season, the Seahawks rank 13th in point differential at +20 and 17th in first down rate differential at -0.55% and could easily be 8-5 right now if not for missed makeable field goals in wins over the 49ers and Rams. If that were the case, they’d be fighting for a playoff spot and likely would not be favored by 6 points on the road against the Panthers.

The Seahawks have been even worse in recent weeks, ranking 25th in first down rate differential since week 7 at -3.05%, only about two and a half percent better than the Panthers over that stretch, as much as Carolina has struggled. The Seahawks also come into this game very banged up, with defensive end Jadeveon Clowney out and fellow defensive end Ezekiel Ansah and cornerback Shaq Griffin considered true question marks. I have this line calculated at Seattle -3, so we’re getting enough line value with the Panthers for them to be worth betting at home this week.

Seattle Seahawks 27 Carolina Panthers 24

Pick against the spread: Carolina +6

Confidence: Medium

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams: 2019 Week 14 NFL Pick

Seattle Seahawks (10-2) at Los Angeles Rams (7-5)

When these two teams met in Seattle week 5, the Seahawks were victorious, but the game easily could have gone either way, as it came down to a 44-yard missed field goal by Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein at the end of regulation. That’s far from the only close game the Seahawks have played this season. Their win over the 49ers also came down to a missed field goal, as 49ers kicker Chase McLaughlin missed a 47-yard game winner in overtime, and overall 9 of their 10 wins have come by a touchdown or less. 

A win is a win for standings purposes, but blowout wins tend to be more predictive of future success than close wins and the Seahawks’ +36 point differential is the worst ever for a 10-2 team. They barely hold the edge in point differential over the 7-5 Rams (+33) and if a few things had gone a little differently the Seahawks could be 7-5 right alongside the Rams. In first down rate differential, the Rams actually hold the edge, ranking 12th at +1.90%, while the Seahawks rank 14th at +0.96%. 

With these two teams about even statistically, ordinarily I would calculate this line at -3 favoring the home team, but the Rams don’t have a typical homefield advantage in Los Angeles, as they tend to draw a lot of visiting fans, especially in big matchups like this. Since moving in 2016, they are 10-16-3 ATS at home and 17-13-1 ATS on the road. I have this line calculated at Rams -2, so while we’re getting some line value with this line being even, it’s not enough to bet on them.

Los Angeles Rams 33 Seattle Seahawks 31

Pick against the spread: Los Angeles PK

Confidence: Low

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks: 2019 Week 13 NFL Pick

Minnesota Vikings (8-3) at Seattle Seahawks (9-2)

Prior to last week’s bye week, the Vikings barely escaped as double digit home favorites over a Broncos team that was quarterbacked by third string Brandon Allen. That’s not as concerning as that sounds though. Not only were the Vikings missing key players like wide receiver Adam Thielen, defensive tackle Linval Joseph, safety Anthony Harris, and right guard Josh Kline, but the Vikings actually won the first down rate battle in that game by 10.32%, winning the game despite losing the turnover battle and despite allowing 4 conversions on 4th down. The Vikings had one more combined touchdown and first down in that game, even though the Broncos were able to run 17 more snaps, so I’m not worried about the underwhelming final score in that game.

Now the Vikings are healthy coming out of their bye and that comes at a perfect time, as they have a matchup with the 9-2 Seahawks this week. The Seahawks have obviously played well this season, but it’s definitely worth noting how many of their wins have been close, as teams with more blowout victories tend to do better moving forward than teams with more close victories. Of the Seahawks nine victories, just one came by more than a touchdown. 

If not for missed makeable field goals by the Rams and 49ers, the Seahawks would be just 7-4 right now and in a battle to even make the post-season. They rank 9th in point differential at +29 and just 13th in first down rate differential at +1.19%. The Vikings are significantly better in both metrics at +84 and +5.08% respectively and, entering this game relatively healthy, they have a noticeable edge in my roster rankings as well. My calculated line for this game is even, so I like the Vikings getting a full field goal.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Seattle Seahawks 23 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +3

Confidence: Medium

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles: 2019 Week 12 NFL Pick

Seattle Seahawks (8-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)

The Seahawks have three more wins than the Eagles, but these two teams aren’t far apart talent wise. Many of the Seahawks’ 8 wins could have gone the other way, with a 7-1 record in games decided by 7 points or fewer and a 5-0 record in games decided by 4 points or fewer. They have just a +21 point differential, 11th in the NFL, and rank just 13th in first down rate differential at +1.71%, only slightly better than the Eagles, who rank 17th at +0.52%. 

My roster rankings also have these two teams close, with the Eagles just one spot behind the Seahawks. The Eagles will miss injured right tackle Lane Johnson, but he’ll be replaced by first round pick Andre Dillard, who started for Jason Peters earlier this year and held up well, and they are expected to get wide receiver Alshon Jeffery back from injury, while the Seahawks are expected to be without dominant defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. 

The Eagles are also in a much better spot than the Seahawks. While the Seahawks could have a little bit of split focus this week with a big Monday Night Football matchup against the Vikings on deck, the Eagles have an easy game in Miami that won’t be a distraction at all. Teams are 64-43 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 7 or more and the Eagles are currently favored by 9 points against the Dolphins on the early line. Unfortunately, we’re not getting much line value with the Eagles as 1-point home favorites, as my calculated line is Philadelphia -2.5. The Eagles should still be the right side, especially since the home team winning by a field goal is the most likely outcome of any game, but there’s isn’t enough here for me to bet on them.

Update: Alshon Jeffery surprisingly was ruled out after warm ups, but the line has shifted to Seattle -2 overnight. This is still a low confidence pick because only about 8% of games are decided by 1-2 points, but I like the money line value at +115, as this game as no worse than a toss-up for the Eagles, even without Jeffery

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Seattle Seahawks 21 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +2

Confidence: Low

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2019 Week 10 NFL Pick

Seattle Seahawks (7-2) at San Francisco 49ers (8-0)

The 49ers are the NFL’s lone undefeated team and have been every bit as impressive as that suggests. Their average margin of victory has been 16.63 points per game, with just two wins by one score or fewer. They haven’t overly benefitted from the turnover margin (+4), which tends to be inconsistent, and they’ve actually missed the 2nd most field goals in the league with seven. They lead the league with a +10.36% first down differential, with a pretty decent lead over the second place Patriots (+8.95%).

The 49ers have done this despite missing some key players: left tackle Joe Staley, right tackle Mike McGlinchey, and cornerback Athello Witherspoon. All three of those players are above average starters and could return to action this week, after absences of 6 games, 4 games, and 5 games respectively, but their backups have played so well in their absence that those players might not be that much of a boost. At the same time, the 49ers lost linebacker Kwon Alexander for the season with a torn pectoral last week and will also be without tight end George Kittle in this game with a leg injury. Both of those players are much more irreplaceable than the players who might be returning.

The timing of those two players going down is bad too, as the 49ers have a big matchup this week against the Seahawks, who are 7-2 and still within striking distance for the division title. The Seahawks haven’t played as well as their record would suggest they’ve played though, with six of their 7 losses coming by one score or fewer. In terms of first down rate differential, they rank 12th at +1.71%. Still, with the 49ers missing Kittle and Alexander, we’re not really getting any line value with them as 6-point home favorites. I have this line calculated at San Francisco -6.5, so the 49ers are the pick I would make if I had to, but this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

San Francisco 49ers 31 Seattle Seahawks 24

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -6

Confidence: None

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks: 2019 Week 9 NFL Pick

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5) at Seattle Seahawks (6-2)

I locked this line in at Tampa Bay +6 earlier this week during my Thursday Night Football write up and I’m glad I did because heavy sharp action on the Buccaneers has driven the line down to +5. The Seahawks are 6-2, but outside of MVP candidate Russell Wilson they have a pretty mediocre roster and have not played all that well that season, in spite of what their record suggests. Five of their 6 wins have come by a combined 15 points, including wins over the Bengals, Steeelers, Browns, and Falcons, who are a combined 6-24. They have just a +12 point differential and they rank just 14th in first down rate differential at +1.13%, despite facing the 8th easiest schedule in the NFL in terms of DVOA. 

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have faced the 5th hardest schedule in the NFL in terms of DVOA and they’ve been competitive, despite their record. They rank 15th in first down rate differential at -0.18%, not far behind the Seahawks. They’re also in a much better spot, as the Seahawks have to turn around and go to San Francisco next week, while the Buccaneers get to host the Cardinals. Underdogs are 68-31 ATS since 2016 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. This is definitely a look ahead spot for a Seahawks team that has had trouble winning by convincingly by big margins all season and I wouldn’t be surprised if this underrated Buccaneers team pulled the upset. This is my top Pick of the Week and I’d recommend a bet even if you didn’t get the +6 early. 

Seattle Seahawks 33 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +6

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons: 2019 Week 8 NFL Pick

Seattle Seahawks (5-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-6)

Things have gone from bad to worse in the Falcons’ wildly disappointing 2019 season, as the Falcons not only lost at home in convincing fashion to the Rams last week, but they also lost quarterback Matt Ryan to an ankle injury. With head coach Dan Quinn likely coaching for his job ahead of the Falcons’ bye week next week, it looked like Ryan was going to play at less than 100% in an otherwise meaningless game, but they couldn’t get him ready for action and will turn to backup Matt Schaub instead, snapping Matt Ryan’s 154-game consecutive start streak, the 5th longest streak in NFL history.

As disappointing as this season as been for the Falcons as a whole, Matt Ryan has still produced at a high level, completing 70.9% of his passes for an average of 7.61 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, while leading the Falcons to a 40.82% first down rate that ranks 5th in the NFL. Now they’ll have to turn to a backup in Matt Schaub who is one of the worst in the NFL. Schaub is plenty experienced with 92 career starts, but he hasn’t been a productive starter since 2012 and, now in his age 38 season, has thrown just 16 regular season passes since his last regular season start in 2015.

Ryan gets a lot of help from a strong receiving corps, but has been pressured on 37.7% of his dropbacks, above the league average, and the Falcons rank just 25th in yards per carry with 3.66, so Schaub doesn’t have a great supporting cast, especially with Mohamed Sanu getting traded. The bigger problem is the defense, which has allowed opponents to move the chains at a 42.13% rate and has not allowed the Falcons’ offense to keep up, especially with top cornerback Desmond Trufant sidelined with an injury. Now without Ryan, the Falcons suddenly have major problems on both sides of the ball.

Despite that, I am actually taking the Falcons as 8.5-point home underdogs this week, although that’s more of a fade of the Seahawks than anything. The Seahawks are 5-2, but four of their five wins have come by 4 points or fewer, including narrow victories over the Bengals and Steelers, who are a combined 2-11. Even with the Falcons in the bottom-5 of my roster rankings without Ryan, I still have the Seahawks calculated as just touchdown favorites, as there’s a good chance the Falcons are able to give the Seahawks a game like almost everyone else has. That’s not nearly enough line value to bet on Matt Schaub with any confidence this week, especially since the Falcons could quit on their lameduck coach if they get down big early, but the Falcons are the pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Atlanta Falcons 16

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +8.5

Confidence: None