New York Jets (0-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-1)

The Colts surprisingly lost week 1 in Jacksonville, but that game largely swung on a -2 turnover margin by the Colts, which tends to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, and the Colts bounced back in a big way with a 28-11 home victory over the Vikings last week. In total, the Colts have the 5th highest first down rate differential in the league at +5.33%. In early, but that’s in line with where I had them before the season. 

The Colts were just a middling team last season, but they get an upgrade at quarterback in Philip Rivers, they get their #1 wide receiver back from an injury riddled season, and they add a much needed difference maker on defense in DeForest Buckner. They haven’t been immune to the injury bug, most notably losing safety Malik Hooker for the season with a torn achilles, but they still rank 8th in my roster rankings overall and are healthier than most of the league

The Colts also have a very easy matchup this week, hosting a Jets team that entered the year as one of the worst teams in the league and that has only gotten worse due to injuries. The Jets lost their two best defensive players before the season even started, with linebacker CJ Mosley opting out and safety Jamal Adams getting traded to the Seahawks, and they have since lost their top-3 wide receivers (Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, Denzel Mims), their starting running back Le’Veon Bell, and their starting right tackle George Fant due to injuries. Through two weeks, they rank dead last in first down rate differential at -8.85% and they’re arguably the worst team in the league overall in their current state.

Unfortunately, we’ve lost all line value with the Colts, as this line has shifted from Indianapolis -7 on the early line last week to -12 this week. The Colts should still be the right side because this should be a blowout, but my calculated line of -13.5 isn’t much higher than this actual line, so there isn’t enough here for the Colts to be worth betting. The Colts are my pick, but for pick ‘em purposes only.

Indianapolis Colts 27 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -12

Confidence: Low