Chicago Bears (5-1) at Los Angeles Rams (4-2)
Both of these teams have impressive records, but neither team has been as good as its record suggests. The Rams have faced one of the easiest schedules in the league and have only beaten teams from the NFC East, getting lucky enough to face that whole division over the course of the first 4 weeks of the season, while their losses have come against the Bills and 49ers. The Bears, meanwhile, have faced a slightly tougher schedule, but all five of their wins have come by one score or fewer, including a few that easily could have gone the other way, while their loss in Indianapolis was a 19-3 game before a garbage time touchdown technically cut it to one score.
The Bears don’t seem to be getting much respect for their record though, while the Rams seem to be, as they are favored by 6 points over the Bears, despite not having any fans in the stadium at home. That suggests the Rams are about five points better than the Rams, but I have about 3-3.5 points difference between these two teams, so we’re getting decent line value with the visitors. It’s not enough for me to bet on the Rams and this might be a no confidence pick at 5.5, but the Bears should be the right side.
Los Angeles Rams 24 Chicago Bears 20
Pick against the spread: Chicago +6