Los Angeles Rams 2026 NFL Season Preview

Quarterback

The Rams finished the 2025 season ranked 1st in first down rate differential (+5.98%), 2nd in yards per play differential (+0.98), and 1st in overall schedule adjusted efficiency (+9.73). Their offense ranked 1st in schedule adjusted efficiency, but they weren’t a one dimensional team, also ranking 10th on defense in schedule adjusted efficiency. They came up just short against the Seahawks in the NFC Championship in a game that largely swung on the Rams muffing a punt. The Seahawks then went on to blow out the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Between the Seahawks blowing the Patriots out and the fact that the Rams played the Seahawks close three times last season, winning once, it is not unreasonable to suggest that the Rams could have gone on to also win the Super Bowl in a blowout if they hadn’t muffed that punt and lost to the Seahawks.

Special teams was a weakness for the Rams all season, but the good news is special teams performance is much more inconsistent year-to-year than offensive or defensive performance, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Rams at least by a little bit better in special teams in 2026. The Rams also entered the off-season with two first round picks, as a result of a trade with the Falcons last season. The Rams used one of their picks on quarterback Ty Simpson, who figures to be a backup in the short-term, which I will get more into later, but they also used their other first round pick to trade for cornerback Trent McDuffie from the Chiefs, which filled the Rams’ one big need, a need they also addressed by signing another former Chiefs cornerback, Jaylen Watson, in free agency. 

Despite using one of those picks on a player who wouldn’t play this season in a best case scenario, the Rams significantly improved their roster this off-season, while the Seahawks suffered off-season losses and are now worse than they were at the end of last season. Given how close those two teams were last season and how much better they were than every other team, the Rams rightfully look like the Super Bowl favorites going into the 2026 season.

The Ty Simpson pick drew a lot of criticism, but I think it made a lot of sense and that drafting quarterback in the first round this year had been in the works for the Rams for at least the last year. Matt Stafford is going into his age 38 season in 2026 with a history of back injuries and has not agreed to a contract with the Rams beyond the upcoming season, so wanting to add a quarterback of the future behind him makes sense. However, the Rams are consistently in the playoffs and, as a result, don’t end up with draft picks high enough to take a quarterback unless they trade with another team that is not consistently in the playoffs, which the Rams did by trading their 2025 1st round pick to the Falcons for their 2026 1st round pick, which ended up being 13th overall. 

The 2026 quarterback class did not end up being as good as it looked a year ago and Matt Stafford won an MVP in the meantime, but the Rams still liked Ty Simpson enough to stick with the original plan. Simpson only started one year in college and played through injury for about half of that season, but he showed flashes of franchise quarterback potential when healthy could have been the #1 pick before he got hurt. The Rams are a great landing spot for him to be able to develop and live up to his potential long-term and I think there is a high likelihood he will be their quarterback of the future, something they did not have prior to drafting him. The Rams also have such a good roster overall that any other player they selected with that 13th overall would probably not have been a starter anyway, so using their pick to potentially set up their future made a lot more sense than anything else they could have done there.

The biggest threat to the Rams’ Super Bowl hopes this year is the age and health of Matt Stafford. Neither of those things held Stafford back from playing at an MVP level last season, completing 65.0% of his passes for an average of 7.88 YPA, 46 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, but that very well might not happen again this season. The good news is Stafford’s production last season was largely because of the supporting cast he had around him and the Rams brought back their top-12 in terms of snaps played on offense last season, so, even if Stafford isn’t as good this year as last year, he still has a good chance to be very productive. The addition of Ty Simpson also gives the Rams a contingency plan that can keep the team afloat if Stafford misses a short period of time with injury. This is a very talented quarterback room.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Another big concern for the Rams is the availability of Puka Nacua. Since entering the league as a 5th round pick in 2023, Nacua has been one of the best wide receivers in the league, averaging 3.19 yards per route run and a 121/1619/7 slash line per 17 games. However, he has a history of injury and is dealing with issues away from football. As of right now, there is nothing preventing him from being ready for the start of the season, but odds are probably against him playing all 17 games just the second time in four seasons.

Adding to the concern of Nacua’s availability is the fact that #2 wide receiver Davante Adams is heading into his age 34 season. Adams hasn’t shown significant signs of decline yet, finishing last season with a 60/789/14 slash line and a 1.92 yards per route run average, but he isn’t what he was in his prime, when he surpassed 2 yards per route run in five straight seasons and, given his age, he could drop off significantly more this season. 

Because of Nacua’s issues and Adams age, many wanted the Rams to select a wide receiver with the 13th pick instead of Ty Simpson. Instead, the favorite for the #3 wide receiver job is Jordan Whittington, a 2024 6th round pick who has averaged 1.40 yards per route run in a part-time role in his two seasons in the league. His primary competition is Xavier Smith, an undersized deep threat and 2023 undrafted free agent who has just 20 career catches, Konata Mumpfield, a 2025 7th round pick who averaged just 0.52 yards per route run as a rookie, and 6th round rookie CJ Daniels, a run blocking specialist who is unlikely to contribute in a significant way as a receiver.

Fortunately, the Rams do run a lot of two and three tight end sets to mask their lack of depth at wide receiver and they added further to their tight end room by drafting Max Klare in the second round of this year’s draft. Colby Parkinson was their most productive tight end last season, both in terms of total production (43/408/8 slash line) and yards per route run (1.67). That average was out of line with his career average of 1.25 and his average of 0.98 yards per route run in his first season with the Rams in 2024, but he did average 1.56 yards per route run in 2022, so his success last season didn’t come completely out of nowhere. Parkinson might regress a little bit this season, but Terrance Ferguson, a 2025 2nd round pick who averaged 1.38 yards per route run as a rookie, is in line for a larger role and the rookie Klare could see immediate action as well, both as a receiver and a blocker.

The Rams also re-signed veteran Tyler Higbee (1.49 yards per route run average in 2025, 1.37 for his career) to a 2-year, 6 million dollar deal this off-season and they still have Davis Allen, who played 585 snaps last season, second among Rams tight ends. Higbee is going into his age 33 season and Allen is a blocking specialist with a career average of 0.85 yards per route run (1.07 in 2025), but the Rams legitimately go five deep at tight end. It is possible that not all of these players will make the final roster, with Higbee and Allen as the most likely candidates to be left off the roster, but even still this is a very deep tight end group that can help mask a wide receiver group that has an elite top-2, but lacks depth. Overall, this is a receiving corps that a lot of teams would much prefer to their own.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The Rams’ offensive line was one of the best in the league last season, ranking 5th in pass block win rate and 2nd in run block win rate, and they bring back all five primary starters from a year ago. Right guard Kevin Dotson is probably the best of the bunch and has been one of the best guards in the league for several years in a row. His age is a minor concern, going into his age 30 season, but even if he declines somewhat, he could still play at a borderline All-Pro level. 

Left tackle Alaric Jackson is probably the Rams’ second best offensive lineman. Originally undrafted in 2021, Jackson became a starter in 2022 and has improved in every season in the league. Last year was a career best year for him, but he wasn’t significantly better than he was in 2024, so it’s not as if last season was a fluke. He might not be quite as good again in 2026, but, still in his prime in his age 28 season, Jackson should remain at least a well above average starter for the third straight season.

Left guard Steve Avila and right tackle Walter McClendon were the breakout players on this line last season. Avila’s breakout wasn’t surprising, as the 2024 2nd round pick has always had a high upside and was at least an average starter in his first two seasons in the league. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued playing at a similar level in 2026 as he did in 2025 and I would say the chances of him being even better in 2026 are about equal to his chances of regressing back to his pre-2025 form. 

McClendon’s breakout, on the other hand, came out of nowhere, as the 2023 5th round pick had played just 353 mediocre snaps in two seasons in the league before playing at an above average level across 10 starts in place of an injured Rob Havenstein. McClendon played well enough to keep the spot even after Havenstein returned from injury and, with Havenstein retiring this off-season, McClendon will continue to start, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he did not play as well in his first full season as a starter as he did last season. The good news is even if he regresses he could easily still remain at least a solid starter.

The weak link of this offensive line is center Coleman Shelton, an experienced player who has started all 64 games he has played for the Rams and Bears over the past four seasons, but an average starter at best who is now heading into his age 31 season and could start to decline in 2026. He will almost definitely remain the starter though. Backup Beaux Limmer is a 2024 6th round pick who struggled mightily in 14 starts as a rookie, before moving to a backup role in 2025. 

The Rams could shift Steve Avila from guard to center, where he briefly took some off-season reps two years ago, and then plug in Justin Dedich, a 2024 undrafted free agent with 9 career starts, at guard, but while Dedich is a decent backup, he probably wouldn’t be an upgrade over Shelton as a starter and the Rams probably don’t want to change Avila’s position after the season he just had. Along with Limmer at center and Dedich at guard, the Rams also have David Quessenberry, a veteran swing tackle in his age 36 season with no starts in the past two seasons, and 3rd round rookie Keagan Trost, who could push Quessenberry for the swing tackle job. Depth is a minor concern, but this looks likely to be one of the best offensive lines in the league again this season.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Rams also have an elite running back duo. Lead back Kyren Williams finished the season 6th in the NFL in rushing yards with 1,252, averaging 4.83 YPC on 259 carries with 10 rushing touchdowns. Williams has been the Rams’ lead back for three seasons and, in total, has 3,695 yards and 36 touchdowns on 803 carries (4.60 YPC). Last season, Williams led all eligible running backs in carry success rate with 62.9%. Corum actually ranked second though, at 59.3%, and he finished with a 5.14 YPC average and 6 touchdowns on 145 carries, a big step forward after the 2024 3rd round pick played sparingly as a rookie.

Williams is undersized at 5-9 194 and the Rams seemingly talk every off-season about giving him more rest, but this is the first off-season where the Rams have a running back that they know is as at least close to as good as Williams, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if Corum saw a further expanded role at Williams’ expense in 2026, in an effort to keep both backs fresh and effective late into the season and the post-season. 

Meanwhile, special teamer Ronnie Rivers, the Rams #3 back last season, will compete for the #3 running back job with 2025 4th round pick Jarquez Hunter, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, but Rivers had just 9 carries in that role last season and, even if one of Corum or Williams miss time with injury, whoever wins the #3 back job would almost definitely only see a handful of touches per game at most.

The one weakness of Williams and Corum is the passing game, as they have averaged just 0.68 yards per route run and 0.64 yards per route run respectively in their careers, but part of that is the fact that the Rams don’t utilize the running back position in the passing game often, something that is unlikely to change this season. Even with their deficiencies in the passing game, Williams and Corum are one of the best running back duos in the league.

Grade: A

Edge Defenders

Like on offense, the Rams bring back all of their key contributors from last year, with the only players they didn’t retain being cornerbacks who they upgraded on significantly with the additions of Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. The edge defender position was probably the Rams’ biggest strength on defense last season. Jared Verse, a 1st round pick in 2024, picked up where he left off in a dominant rookie season, totaling 7.5 sacks, 20 hits, and a 15.3% pressure rate in 2025 after 4.5 sacks, 16 hits, and a 15.9% pressure rate as a rookie. Meanwhile, 2023 3rd round pick Byron Young had a breakout season with 12 sacks, 19 hits, and a 15.6% pressure rate, after totaling 15.5 sacks, 21 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate in his first two seasons in the league combined. 

Young is a one-year wonder in terms of producing at the level he produced at last season and he is relatively old for someone only in his fourth season in the league, going into his age 28 season, but he could still continue producing at close to the same level as he did last season. Verse, meanwhile, is only going into his age 26 season and his best football could still be ahead of him. He has the upside to be a Defensive Player of the Year winner at some point in his career.

The Rams also have a good reserve option in 2025 3rd round pick Josaiah Stewart, who only played 375 snaps as a rookie last season, but impressed, particularly as a pass rusher, where he had a 12.7% pressure rate. Between Verse, Young, and Stewart, the Rams don’t need much else at the edge defender position, but their 4th edge defender, Desjuan Johnson, has shown a little promise in his career, with a career 11.5% pressure rate, albeit across a total of just 324 snaps in three seasons in the league since being selected in the 7th round in 2023. This is a very deep and talented group.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The Rams also have a pair of high level pass rushers on the interior of their defensive line as well. Kobie Turner finished last season with 7 sacks, 8 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate, while Braden Fiske finished with 3 sacks, 8 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate. That wasn’t out of character for either player too, as Turner has totaled 24 sacks, 19 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate in three seasons in the league, while Fiske also had 8.5 sacks, 2 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate as a rookie in 2024. Only in their age 27 season and age 26 season respectively, I would expect more of the same in 2026.

Fiske is a liability against the run, but Turner is a well-rounded player and Fiske’s issues against the run are masked a little by Poona Ford, a talented run stuffer that the Rams frequently rotate into the lineup in running situations. Ford’s 508 snaps played last season ranked third among Rams interior defenders. Ford has always been a talented run defender, but he also had a career high 10.7% pressure rate last season and, even if that was a little out of character, his career pressure rate of 7.1% isn’t bad either, especially for a player who is primarily a run defender. Ford’s age is becoming a concern, as he’s heading into his age 31 season, but he could easily remain a useful rotational player for the Rams.

Tyler Davis also played 475 snaps as the #4 defensive tackle last season and he played decently in a rotational role, holding up against the run and adding a 7.0% pressure rate as a pass rusher. A 6th round pick in 2024, Davis struggled across 298 snaps as a rookie, but he could have permanently turned a corner and could easily remain a capable rotational player. Like the edge defender position, this is also overall a very deep and talented group.

Grade: A

Linebackers

The Rams were not as good at linebacker as they were at edge defender and interior defender last season, but they still had a solid linebacker duo and both joined the Rams in very unassuming fashion. Omar Speights went undrafted in 2024, flashed potential across 319 snaps as a rookie and then continued that over a larger role in 2025, when he played 673 snaps. Meanwhile, Nate Landman is also a former undrafted free agent and joined the Rams last off-season after being non-tendered as a restricted free agent by the Atlanta Falcons. 

Landman was an above average run defender for the Falcons and played snap counts of 809 and 543 in 2023 and 2024 respectively, but he was mediocre in coverage, which led to the Falcons going in a different direction. The Rams then scooped him up on a cheap deal and got his best year yet in 2025, as he continued his above average run defense, but also improved a little in coverage, while playing a career high 1,017 snaps, leading to the Rams giving him a big raise on a 3-year, 22.5 million dollar extension. Neither Landman nor Speights are high level players, but they are at least capable starters and should continue playing at a similar level in 2026.

No other Rams linebacker played more than 100 snaps last season, but, in case depth is needed, free agent addition Grant Stuard figures to be their top reserve. Stuard is primarily a special teamer, playing just 300 total defensive snaps in five seasons in the league, since going in the 7th round in 2021, but he hasn’t been bad when called upon. He’s not a great backup option, but he is the best the Rams have, a minor concern in an otherwise above average position group.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Cobie Durant (819 snaps), Emmanuel Forbes (814 snaps), Darious Williams (458 snaps), and Akhello Witherspoon (174 snaps) all played significant roles for the Rams at cornerback last season and they were all average at best, with Forbes and Witherspoon particularly struggling. The Rams were able to mask some of their lack of cornerback depth with their safety depth, but cornerback was still a big position of need for them heading into this off-season, by far the biggest need on the roster. The Rams still figure to use a lot of 3 and 4 safety sets, but off-season acquisitions Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson also give them one of the best starting cornerback duos in the league. 

McDuffie, a 2022 1st round pick, has been an above average starting cornerback since entering the league and is very much still in his prime in his age 26 season. Watson, meanwhile, was only a 7th round pick in 2022, but showed promise across 440 snaps as a reserve in 2023 and in six games as a starter in an injury shortened season in 2024 and then carried that over a full season as a starter in 2025, when he was an above average starter. He’s technically still a one-year wonder as a season-long starter, but he could easily continue that level of play with his new team.

Of the four cornerbacks who played significant snaps for the Rams last season, only Emmanuel Forbes remains. He is likely to be the #3 cornerback, but the Rams use three and four safeties on the field at the same time often, so Forbes’ role is unlikely to be big unless either McDuffie or Watson miss time with injury. That is a good thing because Forbes has struggled throughout his career, despite being a former first round pick. Only going into his fourth season in the league, Forbes is already on his second team and his extended playing time last season was mostly out of a lack of a better option. Forbes is still only in his age 25 season, so he could theoretically still have untapped potential, but it is far from a guarantee that he ever develops into even an average starter.

At safety, Kamren Curl and Quentin Lake are likely to be the starters in base packages. Curl was just a 7th round pick in 2020, but he has started 86 games in six seasons in the league, including all 61 games he has played over the past four seasons, and has mostly been an average to above average starter. Still only going into his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2026. Lake, meanwhile, is also a solid starter, starting 26 of the 27 games he has played over the past two seasons, splitting his time between safety in base packages and slot cornerback in sub packages. 

Kamren Kitchens is expected to be the third safety again, which is close to a full-time job in this defense. He has also been a solid safety, on snap counts of 514 and 842, since going in the 3rd round in 2024 and, in his age 24 season, it is very possible his best football is still ahead of him. A pair of 2024 undrafted free agents who have shown potential, Jaylen McCollough (846 snaps in two seasons in the league) and Josh Wallace (270 snaps in two seasons in the league), are also in the mix at a position that legitimately goes five deep. With a deep safety room and a much improved cornerback room, this is now an above average secondary.

Grade: B+

Kickers

The Rams had poor special teams last season, but their kicker game at least improved significantly when they cut Joshua Karty, a 2024 6th round pick, and replaced him with former undrafted free agent Harrison Mevis. Karty made just 66.7% of his field goals and 88.5% of his extra points in 8 games, costing the Rams 11.89 points compared to an average kicker and losing at least one game for them that they otherwise would have won, while Mevis made 92.3% of his field goals and 100% of his extra points, accounting for 6.64 points above average. He probably won’t ever be one of the best kickers in the league, but he gives the Rams stability at the position that they didn’t have before.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Rams could have very easily won the Super Bowl last year if certain things went the other way. Now going into 2026, they have addressed their few significant needs, while the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks have lost key players, leading to the Rams rightfully being seen as Super Bowl favorites. There are still concerns, particularly with key players like Matt Stafford and Davante Adams being of advanced age, but overall this looks like a stacked roster with no obvious weaknesses.

Prediction: 15-2, 1st in NFC West

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2025 NFC Championship Pick

Los Angeles Rams (14-5) at Seattle Seahawks (15-3)

The winner of this game goes to the Super Bowl, but there is an argument that this is the actual Super Bowl, as these have been by every measure the two best teams in the league this season. The Seahawks rank 1st in DVOA (+41.3%), first down rate differential (+6.04%), and yards per play differential (+1.34), while the Rams rank 2nd in those two metrics at +39.9%, +5.14%, and +0.85 respectively. On the other hand, both my roster rankings and PFF’s team rankings have the Rams first and the Seahawks second. When these two teams met twice earlier this season, their matchups were about as even as you’d expect, with the Rams winning the first matchup by two and the Seahawks winning the second matchup in overtime by one. Both matchups legitimately could have gone either way. 

With that in mind, I am drawn to taking the points, even if there are only 2.5 of them. A 2.5-point underdog would have covered both of the previous two matchups. The Seahawks are at home, but I am not sure how much that matters because the Rams have had limited homefield advantage in Los Angeles and, as a result, are 47-40 ATS on the road since moving there in 2016, outperforming the spread by an average of 1.1 points per game. 

The Rams are also healthier than they were in the game they lost to the Seahawks a few weeks ago. The Seahawks were without wide receiver Davante Adams and top safety Quentin Lake in that game, while their best offensive lineman, right guard Kevin Dotson, left the game with injuries, part of the reason why the Rams blew a big lead late. In this game, all three will play and should be close to 100%, after all three also played last week. 

The Seahawks will have left tackle Charles Cross this time around, after he did not play a few weeks ago, but they also will be without talented running back Zach Charbonnet and, overall, the Rams are in a comparatively better injury position than the Seahawks were in their previous matchup. Despite that, this line is 2.5 this time around, rather than 1.5, which the Seahawks didn’t even cover. I think the money line is worth a bet at the very least at +130, but I would probably need this line to become a full field goal to bet the spread.

Los Angeles Rams 26 Seattle Seahawks 24 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +2.5

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears: 2025 NFC Divisional Round Pick

Los Angeles Rams (13-5) at Chicago Bears (12-6)

These two teams finished with similar records, with the Rams only winning one more game than the Bears, but statistically there is a big gap between these two teams. While the Bears mostly played close games, winning by more than one score in just 4 of their 12 wins and going 8-4 in one score games, the Rams won by multiple scores in 8 of their 13 and went just 5-5 in one score games. As a result of that, the Rams enter this game with a +175 point differential, including the first round of the playoffs, while the Bears have just a +30 point differential.

The difference between these two teams is even bigger than point differential shows though, as the Bears needed a league leading +20 turnover margin to get to that point differential, while the Rams have a more modest +12 turnover margin. Turnover margin tends to be highly unpredictable on a week-to-week basis and teams that had great turnover margins in the regular season tend to not be able to keep that up in the post-season. Teams that finish the regular season with a turnover margin of +15 or better, on average, actually have a slight negative turnover margin in the regular season.

In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, which are much more predictive, the Rams have a huge edge with a +5.49% first down rate differential, as opposed to -1.00% for the Bears, and a +0.95 yards per play differential, as opposed to -0.30 for the Bears. The Rams also played a tougher schedule, playing five games against remaining playoff teams, as opposed to just one for the Bears, and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on first down rate differential and yards per play differential, the Rams rank first and have about a 10-point edge over the 19th ranked Bears.

The Rams have been underwhelming compared to how they barely earlier this season in recent weeks, but they haven’t been fully healthy with left tackle Alaric Jackson (1 game missed), right guard Kevin Dotson (3 games missed), safety Quentin Lake (7 games missed), and wide receiver Davante Adams (3 games missed) all missing time in recent weeks, after the Rams had minimal injuries early in the season. However, all four of those players are expected to play this week, with only Dotson questionable, and, overall, the Rams are very healthy for this point in the season. 

The Bears, on the other hand, continue to be plagued by injuries as they have been all season. Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (4 games missed), wide receiver Rome Odunze (5 games missed), and cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson (10 games missed) and Kyler Gordon (14 games missed) all have returned in recent weeks from significant absences, but linebacker TJ Edwards and left tackle Ozzy Trapilo went down for the season in last week’s win over the Packers, injuries that will likely hurt them against a much tougher opponent this week. 

This line does suggest the Rams are the significantly better team, favoring them by 4 points on the road, but I don’t think this line is high enough, especially when considering that the Rams have next to no homefield advantage in Los Angeles anyway and, as a result, are 47-39 ATS on the road since moving there in 2016. This is a medium confidence pick for now, but I will increase this bet if I get confirmation that Kevin Dotson will play and this line doesn’t move significantly.

Update: Dotson is playing. I am upgrading this to a high confidence pick.

Los Angeles Rams 34 Chicago Bears 24

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -4

Confidence: High

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers: 2025 NFC Wild Card Round Pick

Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at Carolina Panthers (8-9)

The Panthers beat the Rams in Carolina a few weeks ago, but the Rams dominated the first down rate battle (+14.89%) and the yards per play battle (+1.66), which are much more predictive. The game, which the Panthers won by 3, legitimately swung on five plays that benefited the Panthers by a margin of 27 points, an interception touchdown, two touchdowns on fourth downs, and two Rams turnovers in field goal range. If just 2 or 3 of those plays had gone the other way, not only would the Rams have won, but they could have won by multiple scores. It seems unlikely things will play out the same way a second time.

Most of the Rams’ five losses this season have gone this way. They won the first down rate battle by +3.61% and the yards per play battle by +0.82 in a 7-point loss to the Eagles in which the Rams’ special teams cost them 12 points with a pair of blocked field goals, one of which was returned for a touchdown. They won the first down rate battle by +7.94% and the yards per play battle by +2.22 in a 3-point overtime loss to the 49ers in which they lost the turnover battle by two, missed a field goal, and failed on a fourth down at the end of the game. 

The Rams’ only losses this season in which they lost the first down rate battle were their losses to the Seahawks and Falcons, but the Rams were without multiple key players due to injury in those games, including wide receiver Davante Adams and safety Quentin Lake, both of whom will play this week. Meanwhile, in the Rams’ twelve wins, they won by double digits eight times, relevant considering this line is -10.

The Rams finished the season first by a wide margin in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on first down rate and yards per play differential. The Rams were about 1.7 points better than any other team, and they are healthier now than they have been the past few weeks. Meanwhile, the Panthers finished about 13.2 points behind the Rams in schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 26th in the NFL. Not only did they finish at 8-9, worst among playoff qualifiers, but were outscored by double digits in six of their nine losses.

This line might seem high at -10, but favorites of 9.5+ are 12-2 ATS in the first round of the playoffs, as big lines in the post-season tend to be justified. That alone isn’t a reason to bet on the Rams, but it is definitely a reason not to be afraid of how high this line is. Additionally, favorites are 27-17 ATS in a post-season rematch against a non-divisional opponent who they lost to as favorites in the regular season, as upsets tend to be flukes. Again, that alone is not a reason to bet on the Rams, but it is a reason not to put much, if any stock into the fact that the Panthers won the first matchup between these two teams. The Rams being on the road is also not a reason to be concerned about them, as they have one of the worst homefield advantages in the league and, as a result, are 47-38 ATS on the road since moving to Los Angeles in 2016. I like the Rams a lot this week.

Los Angeles Rams 34 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -10

Confidence: High

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2025 Week 16 NFL Pick

Los Angeles Rams (11-3) at Seattle Seahawks (11-3)

Both of these teams are 11-3, but the Rams have a significant edge in first down rate differential, +7.71% vs +5.54%, which is much more predictive than win/loss record. The Seahawks have a slight edge in yards per play differential, +1.51 vs. +1.23, but first down rate differential is more predictive. The Rams have also faced a tougher schedule overall and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which weights first down rate differential higher than yards per play differential, the Rams have about a 4 point edge over the Seahawks.

The Rams are on the road in this game, but they have limited homefield advantage in Los Angeles anyway and, as a result, have consistently outperformed the spread on the road since relocating in 2017, going 46-37 with a +1.4 per game differential against the spread. I like the Rams for at least a small bet in this game, with the Rams just needing to win to cover the spread. Depending on whether or not questionable players play (wide receiver Davante Adams and interior defender Braden Fiske for the Rams, and left tackle Charles Cross for the Seahawks), I would consider increasing this bet.

Update: Charles Cross has been ruled out for the Seahawks, which is a huge loss for their offense. Despite that, this line has shifted to +1.5. I like the money line more than the spread, but this is a high confidence pick either way. Davante Adams is likely to be out for the Rams, but I was being conservative with my original pick and factoring his absence into the equation and not Cross’ absence. I am also considering this for Pick of the Week.

Final Update: After further consideration of this weekend’s games, this is my Pick of the Week at +1.5.

Los Angeles Rams 27 Seattle Seahawks 23 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +1.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers: 2025 Week 13 NFL Pick

Los Angeles Rams (10-2) at Carolina Panthers (6-6)

The Rams are currently the slight Super Bowl favorite, but they actually may still be a little underrated, as I think they are clearly the best team in the league. They rank 3rd in yards per play differential (+1.05), 1st in first down rate differential (+6.22%) and 1st in my schedule adjusted efficiency rank. My roster rankings have them as even better than that, ranking them close to 3 full points above any other team in the league. 

They are favored by 10 points on the road in Carolina, but this line should be even higher, especially considering the Panthers are missing two of their top-3 cornerbacks, a starting safety, two of their top-3 linebackers, and a pair of starting offensive linemen due to injuries and suspension. My calculated line is Rams -13.5, giving us enough line value for the Rams to be worth betting at -10. This isn’t a big play, but the Rams are 8-3 ATS this season and I think there is still some line value with them. They should be able to get their 7th double digit victory of the season.

Update: Some -9.5s have showed up this morning. I would do a bigger bet at that number.

Los Angeles Rams 27 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -9.5

Confidence: High

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams: 2025 Week 5 NFL Pick

San Francisco 49ers (3-1) at Los Angeles Rams (3-1)

The Rams are 3-1, but they could be 4-0 if not for special teams miscues against the Eagles. Even with that loss taken into account, I would argue the Rams are right behind the undefeated Eagles and Bills as the third best team in the league. They lead the league in yards per play differential at +1.42 and rank 4th in first down rate differential at +4.17%. The 49ers are also 3-1 and rank 6th in yards per play differential at +0.96 and 2nd in first down rate differential at +4.85%, but they have faced a much easier schedule than the Rams.

The 49ers also come into this game much more depleted than the 49ers. Somehow the 49ers will be without their top-3 wide receivers Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings, and Brandon Aiyuk, their top tight end George Kittle, their starting quarterback Brock Purdy, starting left guard Ben Bartch, top edge defender Nick Bosa, and starting safety Malik Mustapha. The Rams, on the other hand, will only be missing one key player, right tackle Rob Havenstein. That gives the Rams a significant 9-point edge in my roster rankings. 

Making matters especially tough for the 49ers is that they will have to travel on a short week with so many replacement players in the lineup. Short weeks almost always favor a significantly better team at home, even in matchups between familiar division opponents. Divisional home favorites of a touchdown or more are 30-6 straight up on Thursday Night Football, as long as both teams are on short rest, winning by an average margin of 12.3 points per game and covering at a 58.3% rate. This spread opened at 3.5 and slowly crept up to 7 as bad injury news came out for the 49ers, but I don’t think the line has been moved high enough, as sportsbooks are wary of creating too big of a middle by moving this line up too high. Let’s take advantage of that with a Thursday Night Football Pick of the Week.

Week 5 Early Locked Picks: IND -6.5, DET -10

Los Angeles Rams 30 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Los Angeles Rams 2025 NFL Season Preview

Quarterback

The Rams were at something of a crossroads at the quarterback position this off-season. With 2 years and 58 million left on his contract, none of which was guaranteed, Rams quarterback Matt Stafford wanted a contract adjustment and was willing to entertain a trade if he didn’t get what he wanted. Stafford reportedly had offers from the Giants and Raiders for significant pay raises and, while neither of those teams gave Stafford the comfortability and winning potential that the Rams did, they did give Stafford intriguing alternatives to consider. 

With Stafford set to go into his age 37, the Rams were hesitant to make significant long-term commitments to Stafford, but didn’t have a good alternative. Backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is one of the better and more accomplished backups in the league, with a career 97.6 QB rating in 64 starts, but he is also getting up there in age, heading into his age 34 season, and would have given the Rams a lower ceiling as a team, while being significantly more injury prone, as compared to Stafford. They could have gone with Garoppolo as a cheaper bridge option to a quarterback they would draft, but the draft was weak at the quarterback position this year, making this an inopportune time to need to draft a young quarterback.

In the end, the Rams probably did the best they could with the situation. They kept Stafford by giving him a raise over the next two years, without having to match the reported 50+ million per year the Giants and Raiders were willing to pay Stafford and without making any commitments to Stafford beyond his age 38 season in 2026, upping his total salary over the next two season from 58 million to 84 million and mostly guaranteeing it all. 

In the draft, the Rams traded out of the first round and got an extra first round pick in 2026 for doing so, giving them a pair of first round picks in a much better quarterback draft next off-season. The plan may be to draft Stafford’s successor next year, with Stafford having one year left on his contract, or potentially even to trade Stafford next otf-season if needed and go with a combination of Garoppolo and a rookie in 2025 instead.

For now Stafford remains as the starter with Garoppolo as the backup. Stafford completed 65.8% of his passes for an average of 7.28 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions last season, while receiving a 74.7 PFF grade, 21st among quarterbacks. However, that was actually his worst PFF grade in a healthy season since 2015, so it’s possible he is starting to decline and could decline further in 2025. I wouldn’t expect him to totally fall off in 2025, but his best days may be behind him at this point. Still, with Stafford and Garoppolo, this is a better quarterback room than a lot of other teams have. 

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

One concern with Stafford, in addition to his age, is that his cap hit will be 17.00% of the cap in 2025 and is projected to be 15.72% of the cap in 2026. Those would be the 2nd and 4th highest cap hit percentages of any quarterback to win the Super Bowl in the salary cap era, as having a high cap hit makes it significantly harder to fill out the rest of your roster with enough talent for a team to go all the way. At this stage of his career, Stafford probably needs a great roster around him to compete at the highest level. Fortunately, the Rams have done a great job finding talent through the draft in recent years, allowing them to keep the cost of the rest of this roster down, while still remaining competitive. 

What makes the Rams’ strong drafting in recent years even more impressive is the fact that they’ve had just one first round pick and four top-50 picks in their past nine drafts, as a result of trades down and aggressive trades for veterans, many of whom are no longer on the roster. One of their many draft steals outside of the top-50 and arguably the best of the bunch is Puka Nacua, who has developed into one of the best wide receivers in the league, despite only being drafted in the 5th round in 2023. 

Nacua finished his rookie season as PFF’s 10th ranked wide receiver with a 87.9 PFF grade and had a 105/1486/6 slash line with 2.59 yards per route run. In 2024, his PFF grade went up to 92.8, 1st in the league among wide receivers, and his yards per route run went up to 3.56, first in the league among wide receivers by a wide margin, with the second ranked AJ Brown averaging 2.99 yards per route run. Nacua’s overall production fell to 79/990/3 in 2024, but that was because he missed six games with injury. His per 17 game numbers were 122/1530/5, which would have exceeded his rookie year numbers. Still only in his age 24 season, Nacua has the potential to lead the league in receiving in 2025 if he can stay healthy for the whole season.

The Rams also might have upgraded opposite Nacua as well. Cooper Kupp was once one of the best wide receivers in the league, but age and injury had slowed him in recent years, leading to him having just a 67/710/6 slash line with 1.99 yards per route run in 12 games last season, which led to the Rams releasing him ahead of a 20 million non-guaranteed salary for his age 32 season in 2025 and then giving that money to Davante Adams, who signed on a 2-year, 44 million dollar deal.

Adams is actually older than Kupp, going into his age 33 season, so he comes with some risk, but he doesn’t have Kupp’s injury history, missing just three games in the past four seasons, and he was the better of the two receivers last season, finishing with a 85/1063/8 slash line in 14 games and averaging 2.04 yards per route run. It’s reasonable to expect some decline from him in 2025, but the Rams don’t need him to be a #1 receiver and, as far as #2 receivers go, he should be an above average one, barring a massive decline. 

The Rams will probably have an upgrade at the #3 receiver spot as well. They didn’t add anyone, but they let go of DeMarcus Robinson, which should be addition by subtraction, as he averaged just 0.99 yards per route run last season and will be replaced primarily by Tutu Atwell, who averaged 2.19 yards per route run in a limited role last season. Atwell probably won’t carry that efficiency into a larger role and he only has a 1.60 yards per route run average in his career, but the 2021 2nd round pick has always had talent and is only going into his age 26 season, so it shouldn’t be hard for him to be more efficient than Robinson. The Rams also have Jordan Whittington, who was even more efficient (2.50 yards per route run), albeit in an even smaller role last season as a 6th round rookie. He probably will have a significantly smaller role than Atwell this season, but he figures to rotate in from time to time and has a lot of upside as far as #4 receivers go.

The tight end position was not a big part of this offense last season, as they targeted tight ends on just 15.3% of targets, 5th fewest in the league, as opposed to the wide receiver position, which received a league leading 74.5% of targets. That will likely remain the case again in 2025, though that has more to do with their talent at wide receiver than their lack of talent at the tight end position. Colby Parkinson struggled with 0.98 yards per route run last season as their primary tight end and he only has a career 1.13 yards per route run average, but he was only starting because Tyler Higbee missed most of the season with injury, limited to three games.

Higbee, who has a career 1.36 yards per route run average, including 1.89 yards per route run in very limited action last season, should be healthier this season. Higbee’s age is a concern, going into his age 32 season, but the Rams used their 2nd round pick on Terrance Ferguson to compensate for Higbee’s aging. The Rams rarely use two tight end sets, but Higbee and Ferguson figure to both see action, potentially splitting the starters’ snaps. With Higbee back and Ferguson being added, Parkinson could easily be relegated to the #3 tight end spot, which would mean he would play very little. With Puka Nacua likely to be healthier, Davante Adams likely being an upgrade over Cooper Kupp, DeMarcus Robinson’s absence being addition by subtraction, the addition of Terrance Ferguson, and a likely healthier season from Tyler Higbee, there is a good chance this receiving corps is significantly better in 2025 than it was in 2024.

Grade: A

Running Backs

Another late round steal the Rams have found in recent years is running back Kyren Williams, a 2022 5th round pick who has been their feature back for the past two seasons, totaling 228 carries in just 12 games in 2023 and then 316 carries (3rd in the NFL) in 16 games last season. Williams was a lot more effective in 2023 though. In 2023 he had a 5.02 yards per carry average, a 3.34 yards per carry average after contact, a 59.6% carry success rate, a 22.4% missed tackle rate, and a 80.3 PFF grade, but in 2024 he had a 4.11 yards per carry average, a 2.72 yards per carry average after contact, a 50.9% carry success rate, a 15.8% missed tackle rate, and a 69.0 PFF grade. 

In 2025, the Rams may try to lessen his workload in hopes of getting Williams back to a higher level of efficiency. They drafted Blake Corum in the 3rd round of last year’s draft to potentially take some of the load off Williams, but he had an underwhelming rookie season, averaging just 3.59 yards per carry across 58 carries with 2.40 yards per carry after contact, a 43.1% carry success rate, and a long run of 12 yards. Corum could be better in his second season in the league though and, if he’s not, the Rams added Jarquez Hunter in the 4th round of this year’s draft to give them added insurance. Both Corum and/or Hunter could cut into Williams’ workload this season to give him more of a breather, which could help him be more efficient. 

Corum and/or Hunter could also cut into Williams’ passing down role, as he’s also played a significant role in passing situations over the past two seasons, but has averaged just 0.58 yards per route run and 4.41 yards per target. Corum averaged 1.81 yards per route run as a rookie, but he only had 7 catches and ran 32 routes, so it’s a very small sample size. Hunter, meanwhile, had 68 catches in his collegiate career, a decent, but unspectacular number. This backfield has potential if they can figure out roles and get Williams back close to his 2023 form, but this group also has some downside if none of their backups develop and Williams doesn’t bounce back.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Rams also got a steal when they signed Alaric Jackson as an undrafted free agent in 2021. In four seasons in the league, he has finished with PFF grades of 70.2, 64.1, 66.2, and 78.3 in four seasons in the league, while making 29 starts in the past two seasons. Jackson is no longer on his rookie deal, but the Rams got a steal when they re-signed him to a 3-year, 56.3 million dollar deal ahead of free agency this off-season, when he almost definitely would have exceeded the 4-year, 82 million dollar deal that the lesser Dan Moore got if he had hit free agency. Jackson might not quite repeat his career best 2024 campaign in 2025, but he’s been a solid player throughout his career and is still in his prime in his age 27 season. 

Right guard Kevin Dotson was originally added via trade, but he too was a steal, as the Rams got him for a swap of late round picks and he has received PFF grades of 85.2 and 81.3 in two seasons with the Rams, while making 30 starts. That performance hasn’t come completely out of nowhere, as he had PFF grades of 66.2, 64.5, and 65.4 in three seasons with the Steelers before joining the Rams, but he has obviously taken his game to another level since being traded. He was kept as a free agent last off-season on a 3-year, 48 million dollar deal that will be a steal if he continues performing at the same level. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect that to happen for at least one more season.

One mistake the Rams made on the offensive line was signing Jonah Jackson to a 3-year, 52.5 million dollar deal last off-season. Jackson missed significant time with injury in 2024, then got moved to center upon his return, and subsequently benched, playing just four games in total. However, the Rams were able to trade him and get out of the rest of his contract, so even that mistake didn’t hurt them very much. Steve Avila, a 2023 2nd round pick who was originally supposed to move from guard to center to accommodate Jackson, never actually saw any regular season action at center and had a 67.1 PFF grade in 10 starts at guard (7 games missed due to injury) last season, after a 61.1 PFF grade in 17 starts at guard as a rookie. Now going into his third season in the league, Avila looks likely to remain at guard long-term and could have his best season yet in 2025 if he can stay healthy.

With Avila sticking at guard, the Rams needed to find an upgrade at center after 2024 6th round pick Beaux Limmer had a 57.6 PFF grade in 14 starts last season. They did that by reuniting with Coleman Shelton, who spent 2019-2023 with the Rams. Shelton only finished above 60 on PFF in one of those seasons, but it was his final season in 2023 (64.5), when he made a then career high 17 starts and he repeated that season again in 2024 with the Bears, when he had a 66.4 PFF grade across 17 starts, earning a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal to return to the Rams. Shelton doesn’t have a high upside and is going into his age 30 season, but he could remain a decent starter and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Limmer, who will now be a reserve.

Rob Havenstein rounds out the offensive line at right tackle, entering his 11th season with the Rams at that spot. Havenstein has made 141 starts in 10 seasons, while finishing above 70 on PFF in eight of those seasons, including five straight, but he is heading into his age 33 season and could decline in 2024, perhaps significantly. The Rams’ depth is also a concern, with Limmer as the top reserve center, Justin Dedich as their top reserve guard and David Quessenberry as their top reserve tackle. Dedich is a 2024 undrafted free agent who had a 56.6 PFF grade across three starts as a rookie, while Quessenberry has 30 career starts, including 17 in 2021 when he had a 80.7 PFF grade, but he fell to a 58.4 PFF grade across 110 snaps last season and now is in his age 35 season. This is a talented offensive line overall, but it’s not without concerns.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Rams have had just one first round pick in the past nine drafts, as a result of trades for veterans and trades down for more picks. The Rams made that one first round pick count though, taking Jared Verse with the 19th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Verse finished his rookie year with a 86.2 PFF grade, 9th among edge defenders, playing the run well and especially excelling as a pass rusher, only totaling 4.5 sacks, but adding 16 hits, and a 15.9% pressure rate, en route to winning Defensive Rookie of the Year. It’s possible he’s not quite as efficient pressuring the quarterback again in 2025 because development isn’t always linear, but his sack total should go up and his ceiling is sky high. It’s likely he will develop into one of the best edge defenders in the league for years to come, while contending for Defensive Player of the Year awards, even if he does happen to take a step back in year two.

The rest of this edge defender position is a concern though. A 2023 3rd round pick, Byron Young had a decent rookie season with a 63.5 PFF grade across 967 snaps, but took a step back in his second season in the league with a 59.9 PFF grade across 844 snaps. He could bounce back in 2025 and could even have his best season yet in his third season in the league, but he is an underwhelming starter, especially given how many snaps the Rams have had him play over the past two seasons.

Young will likely continue playing a heavy snap count, as the Rams don’t have much in the way of depth. Michael Hoecht, their top reserve a year ago, is no longer with the team. He only had a 61.3 PFF grade, but he was the only other Rams edge defender to play more than 100 snaps and he was replaced by a third round pick in Josaiah Stewart, who has more potential long-term, but could struggle in the short-term, especially if he has to play around the same snap count as Hoecht did last season (639 snaps). Other reserve options include Brennan Jackson, a 2024 5th round pick who played 47 snaps as a rookie, and Nick Hampton, a 2023 5th round pick who has played 78 snaps in two seasons in the league. Jared Verse significantly elevates the overall grade of this group, but the rest of this group is a concern.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Rams also have a pair of promising young interior defenders, 2023 3rd round pick Kobie Turner and 2024 2nd round pick Braden FIske. Turner finished last season with 8 sacks, 3 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate, while Fiske finished with 8.5 sacks, 2 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate. Fiske struggled against the run, but Turner played well in that aspect as well and finished with a 74.9 PFF grade overall, 18th best among interior defenders. Turner also had an impressive rookie season in 2023, ranking 9th among interior defenders with a 83.8 PFF grade, while totaling 9 sacks, 8 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate. Turner could easily develop into one of the best interior defenders in the league for years to come, while Fiske could join him if he can improve as a run defender.

The Rams also added to this group this off-season by signing Poona Ford to a 3-year, 27.6 million dollar deal. Ford has finished above 70 on PFF five times in seven seasons in the league, with three seasons over 80, including a 85.1 PFF grade across 604 snaps last season. Ford is at his best against the run, but has also added 11.5 sacks, 29 hits, and a 6.6% pressure rate in 101 career games, including 3 sacks, 7 hits, and a 6.4% pressure rate last season. He is now heading into his age 30 season, but even if he declines somewhat, he should still remain an above average player. He’s essentially replacing Bobby Brown, who was a solid run defender and had a 63.2 PFF grade overall last season, but he only had a 1.4% pressure rate. Ford figures to rotate heavily with Turner and Fiske and adds even more talent to what was already a strong position group.

With Turner, Fiske, and Ford as their top-3 options, the Rams don’t have much need for depth at the interior defender position, but injuries could strike and force their deeper reserves into more significant roles. Desjuan Johnson is a 2023 7th round pick who has played 222 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league, Tyler Davis is a 2024 6th round pick who was mediocre with a 51.7 PFF grade across 298 snaps as a rookie, while Ty Robinson is a 5th round rookie. They aren’t great options, but this is still a talented group overall because of their top-3.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

Another potential steal the Rams found is Omar Speights, who went undrafted last year, but became a starter in week 8 after Troy Reeder got hurt and he proved to be an immediate upgrade, finishing his rookie season with a 66.8 PFF grade across 419 snaps, as opposed to a 57.9 PFF grade across 372 snaps for Reeder. Speights is still unproven and his rookie season could prove to be a fluke, but he has the potential to be a decent every down starter long-term. Reeder returns and will at least compete for a starting job in 2025, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in four of six seasons in the league, on an average of just 339 snaps per season, and he was only in the starting lineup out of desperation last season, so he’s not guaranteed to get his starting job back and, if he did, he would likely continue struggling, perhaps even more so, now in his age 31 season.

The Rams lost free agent Christian Rozeboom, who led this position with 828 snaps played last season, but he struggled with a 59.0 PFF grade. To replace him, the Rams signed Nate Landman, who figures to compete for a starting job and who would likely be an upgrade. The 2022 undrafted free agent has finished with PFF grades of 72.0 and 65.7 over the past two seasons respectively, over snap counts of 809 and 543 respectively. He is at his best against the run, with PFF grades of 85.4 and 73.9, while finishing below 60 in coverage in both seasons. At the very least, he should play a situational role as a run stopper, but he might end up in a bigger role than that, giving the alternatives. The Rams also used a 5th round pick on Chris Paul, but he figures to be a liability if forced into a significant role as a rookie. This is an underwhelming position group overall, but the Rams at least have some intriguing options. 

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Rams’ secondary remains essentially the same as last season, when they were a decent, but unspectacular group. Cobie Durant was their highest rated cornerback, although largely by default, as he had just a 63.7 PFF grade across 15 starts. A 3rd round pick in 2022, Durant showed potential as a rookie with a 73.3 PFF grade across 281 snaps, but he couldn’t translate that into a larger role in his second season in the league, with a 56.9 PFF grade across 642 snaps, before taking a step forward in his third season in the league in 2024. In 2025, he could continue being decent, but he could also potentially regress.

Darious Williams was the Rams’ other outside cornerback last season and he was mediocre with a 60.0 PFF grade across 11 starts. He’s had a solid career, with six straight seasons of 60 or better on PFF, including three seasons above 70, but last season was the worst of those six seasons and now he’s heading into his age 32 season, so he could continue declining. He did have a 79.5 PFF grade as recently as 2023, so he may have some bounce back potential, but his best days are almost definitely behind him.

In sub packages, safety Quentin Lake would most frequently move to the slot and between the two positions Lake led this secondary with 1,070 snaps played last season. The 2022 6th round pick flashed talent in his first two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 71.7 and 71.2 across snap counts of 63 and 451 respectively, but he couldn’t translate that to a larger role in 2024, finishing with a decent but underwhelming 62.9 PFF grade in 2024. He’s still relatively young in his age 26 season, so he could have some untapped potential, but most likely his 2025 season will be similar to his 2024 season.

Kamren Curl was the other starting safety. He was solid with a 66.2 PFF grade, which was actually the lowest single season grade of his 5-year career. The 2020 7th round pick has finished in the 60s on PFF in four of five seasons in the league and maxed out at 82.9 in 2022, though that will likely prove to be a fluke. He’s still relatively young in his age 26 season and he should have another solid season, with the potential for more.

When Lake moves to the slot in sub packages, Kamren Kitchens comes in to take his spot at safety. The 2024 3rd round pick had a solid rookie season in a part-time role, finishing with a PFF grade of 67.7 across 514 snaps. He has the potential to take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2025 and, if injuries knock out either of their starters, Kitchens seems prepared to step in and start for an extended period of time if needed. The Rams also have another second year safety, Jaylen McCollough. He had a 62.0 PFF grade across 336 snaps last season, which isn’t bad, but he didn’t play as well as Kitchens and he went undrafted, while Kitchens went in the 3rd round, so McCollough will almost definitely remain behind Kitchens on the depth chart.

At cornerback, the Rams have veteran Ahkello Witherspoon as a depth option, as well as 2022 6th round pick Derion Kendrick, who is coming back from a torn ACL that cost him all of 2024. Witherspoon has finished above 60 on PFF in six of eight seasons in the league, including three seasons above 70, while starting 62 of 90 games played over that stretch. He’s now going into his age 30 season and only had a 61.7 PFF grade across 493 snaps last season, but, as far as reserve options go, he’s a pretty good one. Kendrick, meanwhile, played snap counts of 483 and 857 in 2022 and 2023 before missing last season with injury, but he struggled with PFF grades of 43.7 and 59.8 respectively and now he’s coming off of a major injury, which hurts his projection further. He should be buried on the depth chart and only play in case of emergencies. This is likely to remain a decent, but unspectacular secondary in 2025.

Grade: B

Kicker

The Rams used a 6th round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on a kicker in Joshua Karty. He finished his rookie year slightly below average, costing his team 2.80 points compared to an average kicker. He made 85.3% of his field goals, but had a relatively low level of difficulty on his kicks, attempting just 13 kicks of 40+ yards last season, missing 3 of them, while missing twice from inside 40. He still has a high upside though and could take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2025.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Rams finished last season with a 10-7 record, despite having the 10th most adjusted games lost to injury of any team in the league, including the 6th most adjusted games lost to injury on offense. They should be healthier this season and their schedule looks likely to be easier, but they ranked just 16th in first down rate differential and 22nd in yards per play differential last season, which is more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record. The Rams were a lot better down the stretch once they got fully healthy, but it is unrealistic to expect any team to be fully healthy for a whole season. Additionally, there is the issue of quarterback Matt Stafford’s age, now in his age 37 season, which is around when a lot of quarterbacks suffer significant declines. If that happened, that would obviously have a significant negative effect on this team. The Rams also have by far the toughest schedule of any team in their division.

Prediction: 9-8, 3rd in NFC West

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 NFC Divisional Round Pick

Los Angeles Rams (11-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (15-3)

Both of these teams came into the playoffs much healthier than they were at stretches this season. The Rams almost beat the Lions in Detroit week 1, but lost top wide receiver Puka Nacua in that game and were just 2-4 when he returned to the lineup in week 8. From week 8 on, the Rams won 8 of 10 games, excluding a meaningless week 18 game in which their starters didn’t play. During that 8 wins in 10 games stretch, the Rams had a 4-game stretch from week 13 to week 16 in which they had their expected starting five offensive linemen together for the first time all season, a stretch in which they won all 4 games, including an upset victory over the Bills.

Even excluding the Rams’ meaningless week 18 game, they still finished the regular season with middling numbers in terms of yards per play differential (-0.27) and first down rate differential (+0.71%), but from week 8 to week 17, those numbers were -0.01 and 1.78% respectively and in their four games with a healthy offensive line those numbers were +0.07 and +3.29%. Now essentially fully healthy in the post-season, the Rams dismantled the Vikings in round 1, winning the yards per play battle by +1.94 and the first down rate battle by +3.52%.

The Eagles also have underwhelming season-long numbers in terms of yards per play differential and first down rate differential, finishing the regular season at +0.87 and 2.91% respectively, excluding their meaningless week 18 game, but that is still significantly better than the Rams’ season-long numbers and the Eagles have had several key players miss significant time with injury who have since returned, far more than even the Rams. That list includes All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) and talented edge defender Bryce Huff (5 games).

In their current injury situations, the Eagles have a 6-point edge over the Rams in my roster rankings and look like a significantly better team. The Eagles are favored by 6 points at home in this game, so there isn’t quite enough here for them to be bettable, especially since the Rams are one of the better road teams in the league due to their lack of homefield advantage in Los Angeles (+1.9 average point differential at home, +1.1 on the road since moving in 2016), but the Eagles still look like the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Los Angeles Rams 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: Low

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams: 2024 NFC Wild Card Round Pick

Minnesota Vikings (14-3) at Los Angeles Rams (10-7)

When these two teams met back in week 8, it seemed unlikely that they would meet again in the post-season. The Vikings looked playoff bound at 5-1, but the Rams sat at just 2-4 going into that game. However, that game proved to be a turning point for the Rams, who pulled the upset and then proceeded to win eight of their next ten games overall to clinch the NFC West, before resting their starters for a meaningless week 18 games. 

The main reason for the Rams’ improvement was their improved health, as that game against the Vikings was the first game back for their dynamic wide receiver duo of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, who missed most of the early part of the season with injury. The Rams also proceeded to get even healthier down the stretch when their offensive line got healthy, with their expected starting five offensive linemen not playing together until week 13. 

The Rams finished the season with middling numbers in terms of yards per play differential (-0.27) and first down rate differential (+0.71%), even excluding week 18, but if you look at just weeks 8-17, the Rams were -0.01 in yards per play differential and +1.78% in first down rate differential. If you look at just weeks 13-16, the four games in which they had their offensive line healthy, they had a +0.07 yards per play differential and a 3.29% first down rate differential and went 4-0, including an upset victory over the Bills, which is very relevant as the Rams will have their offensive line healthy for this game and no other significant injuries to speak of.

On the Vikings side, that loss to the Rams could have also been a turning point in their season in a bad way, as they lost stud left tackle Christian Darrisaw with a torn ACL in that game, by far the most notable injury they’ve had all season. However, the Rams mitigated the loss of Darrisaw somewhat by trading for Cam Robinson after that game, and they also got tight end TJ Hockenson back from a torn ACL the following week, which was a boost for this offense and also somewhat mitigated the loss of Darrisaw. As a result, the Vikings have actually gone 9-1 since losing to the Rams, with their one loss coming in week 18 in Detroit.

That being said, you could still argue this team isn’t as good as they were prior to week 8. Their statistical metrics are pretty similar, as the Vikings have a season-long first down rate differential of +2.72% and yards per play differential of +0.31, as compared to +3.07% and +0.14 since week 8. However, the Vikings have played a much easier schedule since week 8, beating just one playoff team over that stretch, a 2-point home victory over the Packers, relevant since they are 2.5-point road favorites in this game against the Rams. The Vikings have also played a much easier schedule overall this season than the Rams, who have an opponents’ winning percentage of .474, as compared to .505 for the Vikings.

Overall, the Rams look like the right side in this one. The Vikings have a significant statistical edge on the season, but that edge goes away when you take into account the Rams’ tougher schedule and better current injury situation. My roster rankings reflect that, giving the Vikings only a half-point edge over the Rams. However, with this line being under a field goal, it’s hard to justify betting on the Rams, especially since this will be essentially a neutral site game for them, with Los Angeles wildfires forcing this game to move to Arizona. 

This being a neutral site game is not as big of a deal for the Rams as it would be for most teams, as they lack homefield advantage in Los Angeles anyway, (+1.9 average point differential at home, +1.1 on the road since moving in 2016), but it’s still worth noting, especially since the situation back home could prove to be a disruption and distraction for them. I am going to take the Rams for pick ‘em purposes, but I still lean slightly towards the Vikings winning this game straight up and, either way, I don’t think this game is worth betting.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Los Angeles Rams 23

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +2.5

Confidence: None