Baltimore Ravens (6-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-0)

I did a double take when I saw this spread was posted at just a touchdown in favor of the Steelers, after the announcement of further COVID absences by the Ravens, including quarterback Lamar Jackson, and the rescheduling of this game to Tuesday Night. Originally, the Ravens were 4 point underdogs in this game, but somehow the absence of Jackson and others only moved this spread by 3 points. I was strongly considering betting the Steelers at -4 even with Jackson in the lineup, so getting them at just -7 now with backup Robert Griffin in the lineup is a great value.

I have been saying for weeks that the Ravens are overrated as their offense isn’t close to last year’s group. Even before losing their most important offensive player in Lamar Jackson, the Ravens were already down arguably their three most important offensive players from last year in right guard Marshal Yanda (retired), left tackle Ronnie Stanley (broken leg week 8), and tight end Nick Boyle (season ending knee injury week 10). With Jackson at quarterback all season, the Ravens have fallen all the way to 28th in first down rate over expected at -2.40%. Now also missing starting center Matt Skura, Marshal Yanda’s replacement at right guard Patrick Mekari, and two of their top-3 running backs JK Dobbins and Mark Ingram due to positive COVID tests, the Ravens are going to have a very difficult time scoring against the Steelers league best defense.

The Ravens are still solid on defense, ranking 12th in first down rate allowed over expected at -0.56%, but they’re not at 100% on that side of the ball either, with top defensive lineman Calais Campbell out and possibly fellow starting defensive linemen Brandon Williams and Justin Madubuike as well. Campbell hasn’t played since week 9 and this defense hasn’t been the same without him. The Steelers aren’t without their own absences, most notably talented defensive lineman Stephon Tuitt who also tested positive for COVID, but it’s nothing close to what the Ravens are dealing with. My calculated line has the Steelers favored by 10.5 points, even with no fans in the stadium. I love Pittsburgh at 7 and even if you can’t get this line before it likely goes up, the Steelers should still be worth a bet this week, depending on how high it goes.

Update: Hopefully you locked this in when I did. The Ravens have been hit with additional positives and will also be without right tackle DJ Fluker, tight end Mark Andrews, and edge defender Matthew Judon. The Steelers have positives as well, but nothing compared to what the Ravens will be without. This line has shot up to 10 in some places, but I still don’t think that line is high enough, as the Ravens’ skeleton crew is going to have a very tough time being competitive with one of the top teams in the league.

Update: Apparently my sportsbook (betonline . ag) cancelled this bet at 7. I am not sure why this happened because the additional COVID positives since I placed that bet were on both sides and relatively minor and I am not sure when it happened or why I wasn’t notified so I could make another bet at the new number. This is my first year with this book and I’ve had a variety of issues with them that I may go into at a later date depending on how they get resolved. If you weren’t lucky enough to lock this in at 7, this is still worth betting up to 10 (the line is 9.5 in some places), albeit not as much it was at Pittsburgh -7.

Already significantly worse than last season due to the absence of left tackle Ronnie Stanley, right guard Marshal Yanda, and tight end Nick Boyle, the Ravens will play this game without starting quarterback Lamar Jackson, starting wide receiver Willie Snead, tight end and top target Mark Andrews, starting center Matt Skura, starting right guard Patrick Mekari, top defensive linemen Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams, and edge defenders Matt Judon and Pernell McPhee, along with possibly running backs JK Dobbins and Mark Ingram and right tackle DJ Fluker.

The Steelers aren’t at full strength either with stud defensive end Stephon Tuitt and starting running back James Conner both out and they haven’t blown out a lot of teams (3 wins by double digits), but this should be a 4th double digit win. My calculated line would have been Pittsburgh -6 even before the Ravens’ COVID absences and my new calculated line is Pittsburgh -12, even before taking into account that the Ravens haven’t really practiced, which probably should add 2-3 points to that total. The Steelers should be a safe bet up to 10 as this one shouldn’t be close.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Baltimore Ravens 10

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -9.5

Confidence: Medium