Las Vegas Raiders (6-5) at New York Jets (0-11)
This is a tough one. On one hand, the Raiders should be in a good spot. They were blown out in Atlanta last week, but a lot of that can probably be blamed on hangover effort from their close loss to the Chiefs and teams typically bounce back after blowout losses, going 63-38 ATS since 2002 after a loss by 35 or more points, as teams tend to be overlooked, underrated, and embarrassed after getting blown out. The Jets, meanwhile, have another tough game on deck in Seattle and underdogs of 7+ are 38-62 ATS since 2016 before being underdogs of 7+ again, with the Jets definitely will be next week.
On the other hand, I think this line is a little high at 8. The Jets are healthy at quarterback, in the receiving corps, and on the offensive line for the first time really all season and now actually rank ahead of the banged up Bengals and Jaguars in my roster rankings, despite not winning a game all season. Meanwhile, the Raiders haven’t been great overall this season, with a negative point differential at -27 and a negative first down rate differential at -1.32% (23rd in the NFL) and now are without their top offensive player running back Josh Jacobs.
The Jets are obviously winless, but betting on winless teams this late in the season actually tends to be a smart idea. Books know they can boost the line on winless teams, so teams that are 0-8 or worse cover at a 58.1% rate all-time, even if that may be counterintuitive. That appears to be the case in this one, as I have this line calculated at New York -6.5. This line crosses the touchdown to 8, which is significant because about 10% of games are decided by exactly a touchdown, so we’re getting decent line value with the Jets. It’s hard to take them with any confidence though, given their coaching situation and that the Raiders are in a better situational spot. I’m taking the Jets against the spread, but this is one of my lowest confidence picks this week.
Las Vegas Raiders 27 New York Jets 20
Pick against the spread: NY Jets +8